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ERG — Investor Presentation 2018
Mar 8, 2018
4235_10-k_2018-03-08_bc4685be-8bd9-4198-9db8-b8881b926705.pdf
Investor Presentation
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2017 ANNUAL RESULTS AND 2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN
IR DAY - 8 MARCH 2018
DISCLAIMER
This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based.
There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.
AGENDA
Alessandro Garrone (EVP):
- Opening remarks: a new ERG with a new brand
- A successful industrial transformation
- Paolo Merli (CFO):
- FY 2017 Results
- Luca Bettonte (CEO):
- 2018-2022 Business Plan
- ✓ Business Model & Organization
- ✓ Focus on technical know-how and expertise
- ✓ Focus on ERG integrated Energy Management
- ✓ The Energy transition: a profound change in competitive and regulatory environment
- ✓ 2018-2022 Business Plan Targets
- ✓ Closing remarks
A NEW BRAND
SUCCESSFUL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION
ALESSANDRO GARRONE, EVP
2015-2017: DELIVERY ON OUR STRATEGY
2015-2017: DELIVERY ON FINANCIAL TARGETS
✓Financial targets achieved one year earlier
✓Cash generation and remuneration to shareholders stronger than planned
ERG INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION
Renewable diversification financed through oil-linked disposals and strong cash generation
(1) It refers to M&A and organic growth CAPEX
(2) It includes dividends to be paid in May 2018 (ca. €171mn with ordinary DPS at €0.75/sh and extraordinary DPS at €0.4)
(3) 2018 includes TotalErg Disposal whose closing took place on January 10, 2018 with a partial cash-in of €85mn in 2017, and ForVEI acquisition (EV €337mn) whose closing took place on January 12, 2018
INVESTED CAPITAL FULLY ROTATED TO RENEWABLES
From Oil to Renewables
(1) It includes TotalErg Disposal whose closing took place on January 10, 2018 with a partial cash-in of €85mn in 2017, and ForVEI acquisition whose closing took place on January 12, 2018
- Emission reduced leveraging on increased renewable installed capacity
- Carbonization Index: -87% from 2008
-
Increased plant efficiency
-
A strict financial discipline on investments (organic and M&A) through:
- Strategic Committee (EVP, CEO, 2 Board Members)
- Investment Committee (CEO, CFO, Management Team)
- Strong risk management policy:
- new risk policy to ensure the hedging policy of the generation portfolio
- Full Alignment of interests between Top Management and shareholders through:
- a launch of a new LTI compensation scheme subject to EGM approval fully based on shares
…RECOGNIZED ALSO BY EXTERNAL INSTITUTIONS
4Q AND FY 2017 RESULTS
PAOLO MERLI, CFO
HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES
Strong operating results & cash generation
FY 2017 RESULTS VS GUIDANCE
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
2017 EBITDA EVOLUTION
2017 AND 4Q 2017 EBITDA
INVESTMENTS
(1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of IMPAX acquisition (which took place on February 2, 2016 amounting to €292mn) and Brockaghboy acquisition (€14mn)
(2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of DIF acquisition in Germany (€39.5mn), which took place on May 2, 2017
PRO-FORMA RECURRING COSTS P&L
| 2017 | 2016 | Euro millions | 4Q 2017 | 4Q 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 472 | 455 | Recurring EBITDA | 116 | 104 |
| (252) | (254) | Amortization and depreciation | (64) | (60) |
| 220 | 202 | Recurring EBIT | 52 | 44 |
| (66) | (76) | Net financial income (expenses) | (16) | (20) |
| 2 3 |
1 5 |
Net income (loss) from equity investments | (2) | 4 |
| 178 | 141 | Recurring Results before taxes | 34 | 28 |
| (36) | (30) | Income taxes | (5) | (3) |
| 142 | 110 | Recurring Results for the period | 28 | 24 |
| 0 | (3) | Minority interests | 0 | 0 |
| 142 | 107 | Recurring Net Profit | 28 | 24 |
| 20% | 22% | Tax Rate | 16% | 12% |
2017 CASH FLOW STATEMENT
BROCKAGHBOY DISPOSAL
Deal description
- Brockaghboy wind farm construction ended in October 2017
- The agreements with the Developer entailed, after the NIROs accreditation, that:
- ERG had the right to make an offer to the Developer in order to maintain the property of the wind farm
- If that Offer was refused, then ERG and TCI had to launch competitive process for Brockaghboy disposal
- ERG and TCI signed the Brockaghboy disposal to Greencoat on March 7, 2018 at an EV of €185mn
Strategic rationales
- Disposal multiples (€3.9mn/MW) more consistent to an infrastructural investment rather than industrial
- Cash proceeds to finance ERG growth in the renewables
ERG 2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN
LUCA BETTONTE, CEO
(1) Asset disposed at €185mn on March 7, 2018
(2) It includes also Vent D'Est wind farm (16.25MW), whose closing will take place in 1H 2018 (3) It refers to the recent acquisition of ForVEI, whose closing took place on January 12, 2018
(4) It refers to Romania, Bulgaria and Poland
BUSINESS MODEL AND ORGANIZATION
ERG CHANGE MANAGEMENT APPROACH FLEXIBLE MINDSET
• Organizational changes always consistent with business model (from "Multi Energy" to "IPP green")
- Synergies between staff & lines
- Flexible mindset to cope with a changing business environment
: A LEAN ORGANIZATION TO SPEED UP DECISION MAKING PROCESS
(1) It includes Group Administration, Finance, Planning & Control, Investor Relations, M&A, Corporate Finance & Group Risk Management, and Procurement
: A LEAN ORGANIZATION WHERE LEVERS MATCH ACCOUNTABILITY
| GEN & MARKET | AFC & PROC | HC & ICT | PA & C | BD | CORP & LEG AFF | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Management |
||||||||
| Market (Com.al) | ||||||||
| ERG Power | s r e v |
Regulatory | ||||||
| Generation Spa | e s l |
Operations / Asset Mgmt |
||||||
| s e n |
Maintenance | |||||||
| si u B |
E&C | |||||||
| Procurement | ||||||||
| s r e v |
Business Development |
|||||||
| Energy Risk Management |
||||||||
| Finance | ||||||||
| ERG Spa | e e l |
M&A | ||||||
| t a r o |
Institutional Relations |
|||||||
| p r o |
Human Capital & ICT |
|||||||
| C | Legal Risk Management |
|||||||
| 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| No Overlapping | levers |
A BEST IN CLASS TECHNICAL EXPERTISE
WIND: O&M OPERATING CENTERS
- 15 Operating Centers close to wind farms to ensure proper response time
- •New operating centers in France & Germany built on Italian Know-how
- 30 • Carlentini operating center (Sicily) also acts as 24/7 control room for the whole European fleet
WIND O&M INSOURCING AS A VALUE LEVER
✓Constantly delivering excellent performance of wind assets
CBM(1) AS A LEVER FOR EFFICIENCY AND LIFE EXTENSION
The concept
Top-quality and well diversified asset base To perform the maintenance when the status of the WTG main components require it, based on CMS (Condition Monitoring Systems) data and their interpretations
Enablers
- Top-quality and well • CMS Systems
- diversified asset base • Interpretation capabilities
- Procedures
- Warehouse and logistics
- Trained technicians
- High quality ordinary maintenance
Expected benefits
- ✓Further cost reduction
- ✓First mover in installing advanced sensing systems
- ✓First step for life extension of assets
ENERGY MANAGEMENT AS A KEY SUCCESS FACTOR
Production 2017: ≃7TWh Total Energy Portfolio including Hedging: ≃12TWh
2018 expected PAR @YtDay down 50% thanks to hedging strategy
THE ENERGY TRANSITION: A PROFOUND CHANGE IN COMPETITIVE AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
EXPECTED HIGHER RENEWABLES PENETRATION
RENEWABLES TO INCREASE PENETRATION WORLDWIDE
- In 2017 RES overtook coal in supplying electricity
- Decarbonization: by 2040 40% of generation will come from renewables
A FOCUS ON EUROPE
- Clean Energy Package to be finalized in 2018: 2030 target for RES on gross consumption 27-35%
- EU ETS Reform (2021-2030) stronger price signals to enable energy decarbonization
- Capacity market introduction will soften pressure on traditionalsources and facilitate transition
Generation mix by technology in Europe
Generation mix by technology Worldwide
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5/12/2017 Source: WEO 2017, IEA
REGULATORY AND COMPETITIVE GAME CHANGERS
FROM INCENTIVES TO AUCTIONS
- Competitive pressure and higher merchant risk
- Only partially mitigated by the possibility to introduce PPAs
WIND & SOLAR COMPETITIVE VS. TRADITIONAL SOURCES
• Competition amongst technologies based on costs, efficiency & dispatching strategy
Europe: Map of auctions
LCOE of new gas, onshore wind, and solar
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5/12/2017
Renewables evolution: from an infrastructural sector to a competitive industry
LCOE AS A KEY LEVER TO COMPETE
Source: ETRI, EWEA, Irena, BCG analysis
Broad range of LCOEs requiring specific valuation by project and type of players
MOVING GREENFIELD TO REDUCE LCOE
2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN TARGETS
ERG 2018-2022 STRATEGIC OPTIONS
ERG 2018-2022 CAPACITY EVOLUTION THREE MAIN CLUSTERS TO GROW
ABROAD FOCUS ON CO-DEV & GREENFIELD
KEY SELECTED COUNTRIES FOR ORGANIC GROWTH
A SOLID PIPELINE TO SUSTAIN GROWTH
Pipeline creates the basis for a sustainable long term growth
ITALY FOCUS ON REPOWERING & REBLADING
FIRST MOVER TO A SIZEABLE REPOWERING IN ITALY
Technological evolution
• 660/850kW
• Up to 4MW
ERG Implications
-
300MW of ERG wind farms end incentives from 2017-2022, all equipped with old WTGs
- Best wind conditions
- Repowering: new wind farms, in the same sites, with lower number of WTGs, higher production
- Reblading: same wind farms, same sites, same number of WTGs, new blades, higher production
- Targeting 30 years useful life extension
Repowering with new technologies creates value through asset rejuvenation
TIME READY FOR REPOWERING & REBLADING
Regulatory framework looks favourable
- Italian NEP approved on November 10, 2017:
- increasing renewable penetration
- Energy decarbonization by 2025
- favoring Repowering & Reblading interventions
- facilitating and shortening of authorization processes
-
favoring long term PPAs for the sale of electricity with a possible introduction of a public guarantee
-
GSE Procedure for Repowering and Reblading:
- Repowering and Reblading also on incentivized plants
- allowing to keep unchanged remaining incentives
Technological evolution & Regulation create the premises for Repowering
REPOWERING & REBLADING
Repowering & Reblading as a way to exploit asset base with new technologies and extend its technical life Flexible investment plan potentially upgradable
REPOWERING IN A NUTSHELL
REBLADING IN A NUTSHELL
WELL ON TRACK ON ITALIAN WIND FLEET REPOWERING
ERG's efforts on further ≃300MW eligible for RPW/RBL on top of Business Plan projections
TIMEFRAME OF REPOWERING & REBLADING
ERG as a pioneer in the sector to create
an enlarged asset base with ultimate technology
FOCUS ON M&A
M&A TO SUPPORT ERG GROWTH IN KEY COUNTRIES
- Opportunistic approach to consolidate leading positions in the core countries
- Short term growth approach to support greenfield
Value creation leveraging on strong M&A track record
(1) It includes ForVEI acquisition in Italy (89MW) for an EV of €337mn
2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN - TARGETS
INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION
Total Growth: ≃850
A solid growth path leveraging on greenfield, repowering and M&A
(1) 2017 Capacity net of Brockaghboy wind farm in UK (47.5MW)
FROM INCENTIVES TO MERCHANT
Production evolution: Merchant vs. Incentives (TWh)
Merchant revenues are steadly growing with a solid base of incentives
A BIGGER & DIVERSIFIED ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO
Total 2022 Expected Production: ≃10TWh Total Energy Portfolio including hedging & other sales: ≃15TWh
2018-2022 ECONOMICS & FINANCIAL TARGETS
2018-2022 EBITDA EVOLUTION
EBITDA growth based on industrial efficiency and strong rise in renewable asset base
A massive and flexible investment plan for growth
(1) It includes CAPEX for Mini Hydro for €13mn
ERG 2018-2022: FINANCIAL STRATEGY
From an Asset based financing to a Corporate/Debt Capital Market based financing
STRONG CASH GENERATION
Average annual FCF Yield(4) at 16% in the plan period
(1) CAPEX includes Greenfield & co Development and Repowering
(2) Disposals include: 2018 proceeds related to TotalErg Disposal (€180mn) and Brockaghboy wind farm disposal (ca. €108mn)
(3) It includes net working capital, taxes and net financial costs
(4) FCF Yield: EBITDA after working capital, taxes and net financial costs, deducted maintenance CAPEX, on market cap (share price at €16.4)
2018-2022 CSR DRIVERS
- Avoided CO2 : 15mtons
- Avoided TEP: 5m TEP
- Carbon Index: down 14%
- Continous efforts on extracting value from our technology
- Enhancing our integrated generation portfolio
People enhancing
- New leadership model
- Human Capital Coverage
- Skills development
Sustainable thinking sustainable acting
- CDP reporting
- Integration of HSE certifications according to ONE Company Model
- Consolidating relations with communities
- Technological development
CLOSING REMARKS
KPI IN THE PLAN PERIOD
CLOSING REMARKS
Italian Wind assets rejuvenation
Pave the way for further investment beyond 2022 Larger capacity abroad, moving up along the value chain Keeping a sound but diversified financial Group structure Dividend distribution at yield Utility benchmark
Sustainable Forward Looking Evolving Growth
APPENDIX
WIND: KEY FIGURES (1/2)
| 2017 | 2016 | Euro millions | 4Q 2017 | 4Q 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,814 | 1,720 | Installed capacity (end-period, MW) | 1,814 | 1,720 |
| of which: | ||||
| 1,093 | 1,094 | - Italy | 1,093 | 1,094 |
| 252 | 252 | - France | 252 | 252 |
| 216 | 168 | - Germany | 216 | 168 |
| 8 2 |
8 2 |
- Poland | 8 2 |
8 2 |
| 7 0 |
7 0 |
- Romania | 7 0 |
7 0 |
| 5 4 |
5 4 |
- Bulgaria | 5 4 |
5 4 |
| 4 8 |
0 | - UK | 4 8 |
0 |
| 3,613 | 3,501 | Electricity Production (GWh) | 1,081 | 870 |
| of which: | ||||
| 2,117 | 2,220 | - Italy | 594 | 509 |
| 491 | 499 | - France | 155 | 121 |
| 369 | 240 | - Germany | 132 | 6 6 |
| 248 | 213 | - Poland | 8 2 |
7 5 |
| 201 | 181 | - Romania | 4 8 |
5 4 |
| 157 | 148 | - Bulgaria | 4 1 |
4 6 |
| 2 9 |
0 | - UK | 2 9 |
0 |
WIND: KEY FIGURES (2/2)
| 2017 | 2016 | Euro millions | 4Q 2017 | 4Q 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring EBITDA: | ||||
| 241 | 235 | - Italy | 6 3 |
5 6 |
| 3 0 |
3 2 |
- France | 1 0 |
8 |
| 2 5 |
1 8 |
- Germany | 1 0 |
6 |
| 5 | 6 | - Poland | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | - Romania | 2 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | - Bulgaria | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | - UK | 2 | 0 |
| 316 | 308 | Total Recurring EBITDA | 89 | 78 |
| (160) | (163) | Depreciation | (41) | (38) |
| 156 | 145 | Recurring EBIT | 49 | 39 |
ERG POWER: KEY FIGURES
| 2017 | 2016 | Euro millions | 4Q 2017 | 4Q 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,453 | 2,693 | Electricity Prodution (GWh) | 641 | 661 |
| 78 | 77 | Recurring EBITDA | 16 | 7 |
| (31) | (30) | Depreciation | (8) | (8) |
| 48 | 47 | Recurring EBIT | 8 | (1) |
ERG HYDRO: KEY FIGURES
| 2017 | 2016 | Euro millions | 4Q 2017 | 4Q 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,144 | 1,358 | Electricity Prodution (GWh) | 260 | 329 |
| 94 | 84 | Recurring EBITDA | 20 | 25 |
| (58) | (58) | Depreciation | (15) | (14) |
| 35 | 26 | Recurring EBIT | 6 | 11 |