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ERG Investor Presentation 2018

Mar 8, 2018

4235_10-k_2018-03-08_bc4685be-8bd9-4198-9db8-b8881b926705.pdf

Investor Presentation

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2017 ANNUAL RESULTS AND 2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN

IR DAY - 8 MARCH 2018

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based.

There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

AGENDA

Alessandro Garrone (EVP):

  • Opening remarks: a new ERG with a new brand
  • A successful industrial transformation
  • Paolo Merli (CFO):
  • FY 2017 Results
  • Luca Bettonte (CEO):
  • 2018-2022 Business Plan
    • ✓ Business Model & Organization
    • ✓ Focus on technical know-how and expertise
    • ✓ Focus on ERG integrated Energy Management
    • ✓ The Energy transition: a profound change in competitive and regulatory environment
    • ✓ 2018-2022 Business Plan Targets
    • ✓ Closing remarks

A NEW BRAND

SUCCESSFUL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION

ALESSANDRO GARRONE, EVP

2015-2017: DELIVERY ON OUR STRATEGY

2015-2017: DELIVERY ON FINANCIAL TARGETS

✓Financial targets achieved one year earlier

✓Cash generation and remuneration to shareholders stronger than planned

ERG INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION

Renewable diversification financed through oil-linked disposals and strong cash generation

(1) It refers to M&A and organic growth CAPEX

(2) It includes dividends to be paid in May 2018 (ca. €171mn with ordinary DPS at €0.75/sh and extraordinary DPS at €0.4)

(3) 2018 includes TotalErg Disposal whose closing took place on January 10, 2018 with a partial cash-in of €85mn in 2017, and ForVEI acquisition (EV €337mn) whose closing took place on January 12, 2018

INVESTED CAPITAL FULLY ROTATED TO RENEWABLES

From Oil to Renewables

(1) It includes TotalErg Disposal whose closing took place on January 10, 2018 with a partial cash-in of €85mn in 2017, and ForVEI acquisition whose closing took place on January 12, 2018

  • Emission reduced leveraging on increased renewable installed capacity
  • Carbonization Index: -87% from 2008
  • Increased plant efficiency

  • A strict financial discipline on investments (organic and M&A) through:

  • Strategic Committee (EVP, CEO, 2 Board Members)
  • Investment Committee (CEO, CFO, Management Team)
  • Strong risk management policy:
  • new risk policy to ensure the hedging policy of the generation portfolio
  • Full Alignment of interests between Top Management and shareholders through:
  • a launch of a new LTI compensation scheme subject to EGM approval fully based on shares

…RECOGNIZED ALSO BY EXTERNAL INSTITUTIONS

4Q AND FY 2017 RESULTS

PAOLO MERLI, CFO

HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES

Strong operating results & cash generation

FY 2017 RESULTS VS GUIDANCE

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

2017 EBITDA EVOLUTION

2017 AND 4Q 2017 EBITDA

INVESTMENTS

(1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of IMPAX acquisition (which took place on February 2, 2016 amounting to €292mn) and Brockaghboy acquisition (€14mn)

(2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of DIF acquisition in Germany (€39.5mn), which took place on May 2, 2017

PRO-FORMA RECURRING COSTS P&L

2017 2016 Euro millions 4Q 2017 4Q 2016
472 455 Recurring EBITDA 116 104
(252) (254) Amortization and depreciation (64) (60)
220 202 Recurring EBIT 52 44
(66) (76) Net financial income (expenses) (16) (20)
2
3
1
5
Net income (loss) from equity investments (2) 4
178 141 Recurring Results before taxes 34 28
(36) (30) Income taxes (5) (3)
142 110 Recurring Results for the period 28 24
0 (3) Minority interests 0 0
142 107 Recurring Net Profit 28 24
20% 22% Tax Rate 16% 12%

2017 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

BROCKAGHBOY DISPOSAL

Deal description

  • Brockaghboy wind farm construction ended in October 2017
  • The agreements with the Developer entailed, after the NIROs accreditation, that:
  • ERG had the right to make an offer to the Developer in order to maintain the property of the wind farm
  • If that Offer was refused, then ERG and TCI had to launch competitive process for Brockaghboy disposal
  • ERG and TCI signed the Brockaghboy disposal to Greencoat on March 7, 2018 at an EV of €185mn

Strategic rationales

  • Disposal multiples (€3.9mn/MW) more consistent to an infrastructural investment rather than industrial
  • Cash proceeds to finance ERG growth in the renewables

ERG 2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN

LUCA BETTONTE, CEO

(1) Asset disposed at €185mn on March 7, 2018

(2) It includes also Vent D'Est wind farm (16.25MW), whose closing will take place in 1H 2018 (3) It refers to the recent acquisition of ForVEI, whose closing took place on January 12, 2018

(4) It refers to Romania, Bulgaria and Poland

BUSINESS MODEL AND ORGANIZATION

ERG CHANGE MANAGEMENT APPROACH FLEXIBLE MINDSET

Organizational changes always consistent with business model (from "Multi Energy" to "IPP green")

  • Synergies between staff & lines
  • Flexible mindset to cope with a changing business environment

: A LEAN ORGANIZATION TO SPEED UP DECISION MAKING PROCESS

(1) It includes Group Administration, Finance, Planning & Control, Investor Relations, M&A, Corporate Finance & Group Risk Management, and Procurement

: A LEAN ORGANIZATION WHERE LEVERS MATCH ACCOUNTABILITY

GEN & MARKET AFC & PROC HC & ICT PA & C BD CORP & LEG AFF
Energy
Management
Market (Com.al)
ERG Power s
r
e
v
Regulatory
Generation Spa e
s l
Operations / Asset
Mgmt
s
e
n
Maintenance
si
u
B
E&C
Procurement
s
r
e
v
Business
Development
Energy Risk
Management
Finance
ERG Spa e
e l
M&A
t
a
r
o
Institutional
Relations
p
r
o
Human Capital
& ICT
C Legal Risk
Management
6 3 1 2 1 1
No Overlapping levers

A BEST IN CLASS TECHNICAL EXPERTISE

WIND: O&M OPERATING CENTERS

  • 15 Operating Centers close to wind farms to ensure proper response time
  • •New operating centers in France & Germany built on Italian Know-how
  • 30 • Carlentini operating center (Sicily) also acts as 24/7 control room for the whole European fleet

WIND O&M INSOURCING AS A VALUE LEVER

✓Constantly delivering excellent performance of wind assets

CBM(1) AS A LEVER FOR EFFICIENCY AND LIFE EXTENSION

The concept

Top-quality and well diversified asset base To perform the maintenance when the status of the WTG main components require it, based on CMS (Condition Monitoring Systems) data and their interpretations

Enablers

  • Top-quality and well • CMS Systems
  • diversified asset base • Interpretation capabilities
  • Procedures
  • Warehouse and logistics
  • Trained technicians
  • High quality ordinary maintenance

Expected benefits

  • ✓Further cost reduction
  • ✓First mover in installing advanced sensing systems
  • ✓First step for life extension of assets

ENERGY MANAGEMENT AS A KEY SUCCESS FACTOR

Production 2017:7TWh Total Energy Portfolio including Hedging:12TWh

2018 expected PAR @YtDay down 50% thanks to hedging strategy

THE ENERGY TRANSITION: A PROFOUND CHANGE IN COMPETITIVE AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

EXPECTED HIGHER RENEWABLES PENETRATION

RENEWABLES TO INCREASE PENETRATION WORLDWIDE

  • In 2017 RES overtook coal in supplying electricity
  • Decarbonization: by 2040 40% of generation will come from renewables

A FOCUS ON EUROPE

  • Clean Energy Package to be finalized in 2018: 2030 target for RES on gross consumption 27-35%
  • EU ETS Reform (2021-2030) stronger price signals to enable energy decarbonization
  • Capacity market introduction will soften pressure on traditionalsources and facilitate transition

Generation mix by technology in Europe

Generation mix by technology Worldwide

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5/12/2017 Source: WEO 2017, IEA

REGULATORY AND COMPETITIVE GAME CHANGERS

FROM INCENTIVES TO AUCTIONS

  • Competitive pressure and higher merchant risk
  • Only partially mitigated by the possibility to introduce PPAs

WIND & SOLAR COMPETITIVE VS. TRADITIONAL SOURCES

• Competition amongst technologies based on costs, efficiency & dispatching strategy

Europe: Map of auctions

LCOE of new gas, onshore wind, and solar

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5/12/2017

Renewables evolution: from an infrastructural sector to a competitive industry

LCOE AS A KEY LEVER TO COMPETE

Source: ETRI, EWEA, Irena, BCG analysis

Broad range of LCOEs requiring specific valuation by project and type of players

MOVING GREENFIELD TO REDUCE LCOE

2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN TARGETS

ERG 2018-2022 STRATEGIC OPTIONS

ERG 2018-2022 CAPACITY EVOLUTION THREE MAIN CLUSTERS TO GROW

ABROAD FOCUS ON CO-DEV & GREENFIELD

KEY SELECTED COUNTRIES FOR ORGANIC GROWTH

A SOLID PIPELINE TO SUSTAIN GROWTH

Pipeline creates the basis for a sustainable long term growth

ITALY FOCUS ON REPOWERING & REBLADING

FIRST MOVER TO A SIZEABLE REPOWERING IN ITALY

Technological evolution

• 660/850kW

• Up to 4MW

ERG Implications

  • 300MW of ERG wind farms end incentives from 2017-2022, all equipped with old WTGs

  • Best wind conditions
  • Repowering: new wind farms, in the same sites, with lower number of WTGs, higher production
  • Reblading: same wind farms, same sites, same number of WTGs, new blades, higher production
  • Targeting 30 years useful life extension

Repowering with new technologies creates value through asset rejuvenation

TIME READY FOR REPOWERING & REBLADING

Regulatory framework looks favourable

  • Italian NEP approved on November 10, 2017:
  • increasing renewable penetration
  • Energy decarbonization by 2025
  • favoring Repowering & Reblading interventions
  • facilitating and shortening of authorization processes
  • favoring long term PPAs for the sale of electricity with a possible introduction of a public guarantee

  • GSE Procedure for Repowering and Reblading:

  • Repowering and Reblading also on incentivized plants
  • allowing to keep unchanged remaining incentives

Technological evolution & Regulation create the premises for Repowering

REPOWERING & REBLADING

Repowering & Reblading as a way to exploit asset base with new technologies and extend its technical life Flexible investment plan potentially upgradable

REPOWERING IN A NUTSHELL

REBLADING IN A NUTSHELL

WELL ON TRACK ON ITALIAN WIND FLEET REPOWERING

ERG's efforts on further300MW eligible for RPW/RBL on top of Business Plan projections

TIMEFRAME OF REPOWERING & REBLADING

ERG as a pioneer in the sector to create

an enlarged asset base with ultimate technology

FOCUS ON M&A

M&A TO SUPPORT ERG GROWTH IN KEY COUNTRIES

  • Opportunistic approach to consolidate leading positions in the core countries
  • Short term growth approach to support greenfield

Value creation leveraging on strong M&A track record

(1) It includes ForVEI acquisition in Italy (89MW) for an EV of €337mn

2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN - TARGETS

INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION

Total Growth: ≃850

A solid growth path leveraging on greenfield, repowering and M&A

(1) 2017 Capacity net of Brockaghboy wind farm in UK (47.5MW)

FROM INCENTIVES TO MERCHANT

Production evolution: Merchant vs. Incentives (TWh)

Merchant revenues are steadly growing with a solid base of incentives

A BIGGER & DIVERSIFIED ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO

Total 2022 Expected Production:10TWh Total Energy Portfolio including hedging & other sales:15TWh

2018-2022 ECONOMICS & FINANCIAL TARGETS

2018-2022 EBITDA EVOLUTION

EBITDA growth based on industrial efficiency and strong rise in renewable asset base

A massive and flexible investment plan for growth

(1) It includes CAPEX for Mini Hydro for €13mn

ERG 2018-2022: FINANCIAL STRATEGY

From an Asset based financing to a Corporate/Debt Capital Market based financing

STRONG CASH GENERATION

Average annual FCF Yield(4) at 16% in the plan period

(1) CAPEX includes Greenfield & co Development and Repowering

(2) Disposals include: 2018 proceeds related to TotalErg Disposal (€180mn) and Brockaghboy wind farm disposal (ca. €108mn)

(3) It includes net working capital, taxes and net financial costs

(4) FCF Yield: EBITDA after working capital, taxes and net financial costs, deducted maintenance CAPEX, on market cap (share price at €16.4)

2018-2022 CSR DRIVERS

  • Avoided CO2 : 15mtons
  • Avoided TEP: 5m TEP
  • Carbon Index: down 14%
  • Continous efforts on extracting value from our technology
  • Enhancing our integrated generation portfolio

People enhancing

  • New leadership model
  • Human Capital Coverage
  • Skills development

Sustainable thinking sustainable acting

  • CDP reporting
  • Integration of HSE certifications according to ONE Company Model
  • Consolidating relations with communities
  • Technological development

CLOSING REMARKS

KPI IN THE PLAN PERIOD

CLOSING REMARKS

Italian Wind assets rejuvenation

Pave the way for further investment beyond 2022 Larger capacity abroad, moving up along the value chain Keeping a sound but diversified financial Group structure Dividend distribution at yield Utility benchmark

Sustainable Forward Looking Evolving Growth

APPENDIX

WIND: KEY FIGURES (1/2)

2017 2016 Euro millions 4Q 2017 4Q 2016
1,814 1,720 Installed capacity (end-period, MW) 1,814 1,720
of which:
1,093 1,094 - Italy 1,093 1,094
252 252 - France 252 252
216 168 - Germany 216 168
8
2
8
2
- Poland 8
2
8
2
7
0
7
0
- Romania 7
0
7
0
5
4
5
4
- Bulgaria 5
4
5
4
4
8
0 - UK 4
8
0
3,613 3,501 Electricity Production (GWh) 1,081 870
of which:
2,117 2,220 - Italy 594 509
491 499 - France 155 121
369 240 - Germany 132 6
6
248 213 - Poland 8
2
7
5
201 181 - Romania 4
8
5
4
157 148 - Bulgaria 4
1
4
6
2
9
0 - UK 2
9
0

WIND: KEY FIGURES (2/2)

2017 2016 Euro millions 4Q 2017 4Q 2016
Recurring EBITDA:
241 235 - Italy 6
3
5
6
3
0
3
2
- France 1
0
8
2
5
1
8
- Germany 1
0
6
5 6 - Poland 2 2
8 8 - Romania 2 2
6 8 - Bulgaria 1 3
2 0 - UK 2 0
316 308 Total Recurring EBITDA 89 78
(160) (163) Depreciation (41) (38)
156 145 Recurring EBIT 49 39

ERG POWER: KEY FIGURES

2017 2016 Euro millions 4Q 2017 4Q 2016
2,453 2,693 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 641 661
78 77 Recurring EBITDA 16 7
(31) (30) Depreciation (8) (8)
48 47 Recurring EBIT 8 (1)

ERG HYDRO: KEY FIGURES

2017 2016 Euro millions 4Q 2017 4Q 2016
1,144 1,358 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 260 329
94 84 Recurring EBITDA 20 25
(58) (58) Depreciation (15) (14)
35 26 Recurring EBIT 6 11