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TRATON SE Investor Presentation 2026
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TRATON
Q4 2025 PRE-CLOSE CALL
ANALYST / INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Munich, 08/01/2026
SCANIA / MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL
1
Q4 2025 Pre-Close Call
08/01/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
DISCLAIMER
This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only.
The presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation, nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation to the securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any such securities.
The presentation as well as remarks, comments and explanations in this context contain forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the TRATON GROUP. These forward-looking statements and information reflect our current views about future events and are based on assumptions relating to the TRATON GROUP's business and the development of the economies in the countries in which the TRATON GROUP is active.
The TRATON GROUP has made such forward-looking statements on the basis of the information available to it and assumptions it believes to be reasonable. The forward-looking statements and information may involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements and/or any forecasts. This applies in particular, if any of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect. Any changes in significant parameters relating to these forward-looking statements, especially with regards to key markets in which the TRATON GROUP is active, or any significant shifts in exchange rates, market regulation, energy and other commodity prices or the supply with parts relevant to the TRATON GROUP will have a corresponding effect on the business development. In addition, there may also be departures from the expected business development if the factors influencing sustainable value enhancement and the risks and opportunities presented develop in a way other than currently expected, or if additional risks and opportunities or other factors emerge that affect the development of the business. TRATON SE does not assume any responsibility for updating forward-looking statements in this presentation.
All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of TRATON SE or any affiliated company or any of its competitors are estimates based on data available to the TRATON GROUP.
The percentage figures shown may be subject to rounding differences. All figures are rounded, so minor discrepancies may arise from addition of those amounts. Due to different proportions and scaling in graphs, data shown in different graphs are not comparable.
Q4 2025 Pre-Close Call
08/01/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
1. MARKET SITUATION & RECENT TRADING
Market outlook (as published on 29 October 2025)
EU27+3¹ (k units, >6t)
2025e: -12.5% – -7.5%
2025 YTD Nov: -9% | 309
2024: -6% | 365
North America (k units, class 6-8²)
2025e: -15% – -10%
2025 YTD Nov: Class 6-8² -15% | 330; Class 8 -16% | 241
2024: Class 6-8² -4% | 427; Class 8 -7% | 308
South America (k units, >6t)
2025e: -5% – +5%
2025 YTD Oct: +5% | 147
2024: +11% | 171
Recent trading
- Truck demand remained at replacement levels, no structural growth or turnaround signals.
- Encouraging demand signals since Sep, highest yearly order intake in Oct & Nov.
-
Demand from DACH region, particularly Germany remained weak.
-
Weak truck market amid tariff-related uncertainty and persisting freight recession.
- Heavy tractor market suffers more than severe service market.
-
Relatively strong order intake in Oct, very weak Nov, significant uptick in Dec.
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Brazilian truck market suffering from political uncertainty, high dealer inventory, elevated interest rates, inflation and US tariffs.
- HD challenges spilled over to MD segment.
- Other South American countries (Argentina, Chile) recorded increased sales.
1 EU27+3 region (EU27 countries without Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland) 2 USA and Canada class 6-8, Mexico class 4-8
Q4 2025 Pre-Close Call
08/01/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
2. RECENT BRAND AND FINANCIAL SERVICES DEVELOPMENTS
Scania
- Despite ongoing market challenges, Scania aims for peak seasonal Q4 sales with a double-digit adj. RoS in Q4 and FY 25.
- Ongoing cost containment.
- Most ramp-up-related China investments expensed or activated.
- NEXT ERA unveiled end of Nov.
MAN
- MAN still suffers from lower fixed cost absorption, but peak deliveries and revenues in Q4 25 expected.
- Aims for an adj. RoS of 6% for FY 25.
- Continued cost management post realignment; press stated job cuts.
- Busses developing well.
International
- Difficult market conditions will affect Q4 25 orders and unit sales; but: significantly higher order intake in Dec vs. Nov.
- S-232 costs and additional IEEPA tariffs will lead to negative margin in Q4 25; aim for FY 25 break-even.
- S-232 surcharges removed.
- Full US content/credit refunds not before Q1 26.
VWTB
- Lower top- und bottom-line performance in H2 compared to H1 due to increasingly tough market conditions.
- VWTB aims for a double-digit margin in Q4 25 with flexible production system.
- Reduced capacity in Q4.
TFS
- Higher-than-anticipated bad debt provisions in Brazil in Q4 25 due to the challenging market environment, leading to a substantial decline in operating result in Q4 25 compared to Q3.
- In addition, TFS is still in its expansion phase, which continues to weigh on cost.
Q4 2025 Pre-Close Call
08/01/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
3. GROUP PERSPECTIVE
2025 Outlook as published on 25 July and 29 October 2025
| | FY 2024
Actuals | FY 2025
Outlook
(since Q2 results) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| TRATON GROUP | | |
| Unit sales (units) | 334,215 | -10 – 0% |
| Sales revenue (€ million) | 47,473 | -10 – 0% |
| Operating return on sales (adjusted) (in %) | 9.2 | 6.0 – 7.0 |
| TRATON Operations | | |
| Sales revenue (€ million) | 46,182 | -10 – 0% |
| Operating return on sales (adjusted) (in %) | 10.3 | 7.0 – 8.0 |
| Net cash flow (€ million) | 2,834 | 1,000 – 1,500 |
| Capex (€ million) | 1,751 | significant increase |
| Primary R&D costs (€ million) | 2,458 | slight increase |
| TRATON Financial Services | | |
| Return on equity (in %) | 10.8 | 8.0 – 11.0 |
Additional tariff costs in effect since Q3 and additional/potential Section 232 tariffs – to a certain extent – are still covered by the guidance range. But uncertainty over tariffs persists
—Full-year Group guidance confirmed, indicating lower ends of Group adj. RoS and NCF TRATON Operations.
—Achieving over 6% Group adj. RoS or €1 billion NCF TRATON Operations challenging due to higher-than-expected S-232 costs and cash burden in Q4.
—No reduction of Industrial net debt expected in 2025.
—Continued cost optimization work in 2026, while remaining committed to transformation investments.
—If market conditions remain subdued, 2026 will continue to be challenging for RoS ambitions and debt reduction efforts.
—Nevertheless, remain committed to reducing net debt in Industrial Business to zero by end of the decade.
Q4 2025 Pre-Close Call
08/01/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
IR CONTACT AND EVENTS
Contacts
Ursula Querette
Head of Investor Relations
+49 152 021 52 400
[email protected]
Matthias Maucher
Investor Relations
+49 170 381 60 25
[email protected]
Thomas Paschen
Investor Relations
+49 170 907 34 94
[email protected]
Marie Fischhaber
Investor Relations
+49 152 256 00 705
[email protected]
Events
12-13 Jan 2026
Commerzbank / Oddo BHF German Investment Seminar | New York
19-20 Jan 2026
Kepler Cheuvreux German Corporate Conference | Frankfurt
20 Jan 2026
Q4 2025 Unit Sales Figures
04 Mar 2026
2025 Annual Report, End of Quiet Period
04-06 Mar 2026
J.P.Morgan Post Q4 2025 Virtual Roadshow
17 Mar 2026
Bofa Global Industrials Conference | London
18 Mar 2026
BNP Paribas TIME Conference | London