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TRATON SE Investor Presentation 2026
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TRATON
Q1 2026 PRE-CLOSE CALL
ANALYST / INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Munich, 09/04/2026
SCANIA / MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL
1
QI 2026 Pre-Close Call
09/04/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
DISCLAIMER
This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only.
The presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation, nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation to the securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any such securities.
The presentation as well as remarks, comments and explanations in this context contain forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the TRATON GROUP. These forward-looking statements and information reflect our current views about future events and are based on assumptions relating to the TRATON GROUP's business and the development of the economies in the countries in which the TRATON GROUP is active.
The TRATON GROUP has made such forward-looking statements on the basis of the information available to it and assumptions it believes to be reasonable. The forward-looking statements and information may involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements and/or any forecasts. This applies in particular, if any of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect. Any changes in significant parameters relating to these forward-looking statements, especially with regards to key markets in which the TRATON GROUP is active, or any significant shifts in exchange rates, market regulation, energy and other commodity prices or the supply with parts relevant to the TRATON GROUP will have a corresponding effect on the business development. In addition, there may also be departures from the expected business development if the factors influencing sustainable value enhancement and the risks and opportunities presented develop in a way other than currently expected, or if additional risks and opportunities or other factors emerge that affect the development of the business. TRATON SE does not assume any responsibility for updating forward-looking statements in this presentation.
All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of TRATON SE or any affiliated company or any of its competitors are estimates based on data available to the TRATON GROUP.
The percentage figures shown may be subject to rounding differences. All figures are rounded, so minor discrepancies may arise from addition of those amounts. Due to different proportions and scaling in graphs, data shown in different graphs are not comparable.
Q1 2026 Pre-Close Call
09/04/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
1. MARKET SITUATION & RECENT TRADING
Market outlook (as published on 4 March 2026)
EU27+3¹ (k units, >6t)
2026e: -2.5% – +7.5% (mid-point +2.5%)
North America² (k units, class 6-8)
2026e: -5% – +10% (mid-point +2.5%)
South America (k units, >6t)
2026e: -10% – 0% (mid-point -5%)
China (k units, >6t)
2026e: -10% – +5% (mid-point -2.5%)
Recent trading
— Truck registrations in EU27+3 up +4% YTD February in-line with outlook.
— Encouraging demand signals at Scania/MAN in first 3 months; some hesitation from customers since start of Iran war.
— Still don't see order momentum from German infrastructure spending.
— Truck retail sales in NA down -22% YTD February.
— But: ACT data show significant uptick in orders since December 2025; freight rates also improved.
— Dealers and fleets notably increased orders possibly in anticipation of price increases or capacity constraints.
— Solid orders in March for International, likely including EPA27 pre-buy activity.
— Truck registrations in SA down -20% YTD January; economic challenges persist.
— Agriculture and mining businesses started strong and Move Brazil program boosted Scania/VWTB truck order intake YTD in Brazil.
— Other SA markets also showed good order momentum.
— Truck registrations in China up +45% YTD January, in historically lowest month of the year.
1 EU27+3 region (EU27 countries without Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland) 2 USA and Canada class 6-8, Mexico class 4-8
QI 2026 Pre-Close Call
09/04/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
2. VARIOUS KEY TOPICS
Impact of Iran war
- Limited direct exposure in Middle East region (without Turkey): ~2% of our sales revenue / unit sales.
- When the war started ~600 Scania trucks and ~50 MAN trucks in delivery process towards the region.
- In few cases, customers in the region asked to postpone deliveries.
- So far, supply chain impact has been manageable.
- Closely monitoring our Tier 1, 2, and 3 suppliers; risks may still arise further down in the supply chain or as circumstances evolve.
- Too early to assess how higher energy and oil prices will affect our own production operations and input costs (such price effects usually lag, expecting to see first impacts towards end of Q2).
- Also too soon to tell how potential negative economic impacts will affect global customer demand.
Chinese competition in Europe
- Limited Chinese competition in European diesel truck segment anticipated, but: expecting introduction of electric trucks likely within a year.
- Will take several years to build customer trust and establish service and dealer network.
- Chinese competition becoming increasingly prominent in electric city bus sector.
- New industrial hub in China helps us assess and prepare for Chinese competition.
Q1 2026 Pre-Close Call
09/04/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
3. RECENT BRAND DEVELOPMENTS
Scania
- Small scale production increase in Europe starting from April (now paused due to Iran war); also, production increase in Brazil.
- First trucks delivered in China from local hub; 2026 target remains 10,000 units (Scania premium and Next Era).
- Anticipate break-even in China in 2028 depending on market.
- Development of a BEV underway.
- Reiterated €400 million P&L effect for China operations in 2026.
MAN
- Production capacity unchanged; no clear signs of positive momentum in DACH region.
- Order intake development supports total European growth ambition.
International
- Production capacity unchanged; need more clarity on Iran, US-demand, tariffs.
- Aim for stable market share and higher margin FY 26 (FY 25 break-even), despite tariff impact.
- Section 232 negotiations ongoing, aiming for higher US content
- Currently no new surcharges; usual model year price increases, EPA27-related price increases expected (no strategy yet).
- Facility in Springfield, Ohio to be sold.
VWTB
- Gradual increase of production in Q1 due to low inventory levels end of 2025.
- Renewed Move Brazil program could lead to further increase in production.
Q1 2026 Pre-Close Call
09/04/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
4. GROUP PERSPECTIVE
2026 Outlook as published on 4 March 2026
| FY 2025 Actuals | FY 2026 Outlook | |
|---|---|---|
| TRATON GROUP | ||
| Unit sales (units) | 305,486 | -5 to +7% |
| Sales revenue (€ million) | 44,052 | -5 to +7% |
| Operating return on sales (adjusted) (in %) | 6.3 | 5.3 to 7.3 |
| TRATON Operations | ||
| Sales revenue (€ million) | 42,536 | -5 to +7% |
| Operating return on sales (adjusted) (in %) | 7.3 | 6.1 to 8.1 |
| Net cash flow (€ million) | 1,643 | 900 to 1,700 |
| TRATON Financial Services | ||
| Return on equity (in %) | 8.0 | 8.0 to 11.0 |
The outlook is based on the tariff situation prevailing at the end of 2025 (IEEPA, Steel/Aluminum, S-232). The outlook is subject to geopolitical risks particularly unexpected impacts of US trade policy and effects of the current Iran war.
—Ambition for FY 2026 to deliver at least the same adjusted RoS on Group level as last year.
—Adjusted RoS in Q1 2026 expected to drop below the guided full-year range of 5.3% to 7.3%, mainly due to an expected slow start to the new year and still ongoing tariff cost negotiations.
—Provisions for layoffs in the US, and one-time effects in connection with announced sale of Springfield/Ohio asset will burden TRATON GROUP's unadjusted Q1 2026 result, but not the adjusted RoS.
Q1 2026 Pre-Close Call
09/04/2026
Investor Relations
TRATON
IR CONTACT AND EVENTS
Contacts
Ursula Querette
Head of Investor Relations
+49 152 021 52 400
[email protected]
Matthias Maucher
Investor Relations
+49 170 381 60 25
[email protected]
Thomas Paschen
Investor Relations
+49 170 907 34 94
[email protected]
Marie Fischhaber
Investor Relations
+49 152 256 00 705
[email protected]
Events
13 Apr 2026 Q1 2026 Unit Sales Release
29 Apr 2026 3M 2026 Interim Statement Release
30 Apr 2026 Morgan Stanley Post Q1 2026 Roadshow | London
12 May 2026 UBS Best of Europe Virtual Conference
01 Jun 2026 JPM European Autos Conference | London
16 Jun 2026 2026 Annual General Meeting
24 Jun 2026 Jefferies German & Swiss Conference | Baden-Baden