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TRATON SE — Investor Presentation 2021
May 10, 2021
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Investor Presentation
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PRESS CONFERENCE CALL 3M 2021 INTERIM STATEMENT
MATTHIAS GRÜNDLER, CEO CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO
MUNICH - MAY 10, 2021
DISCLAIMER
This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only.
It does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation, nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation to the securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any such securities.
It contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the TRATON GROUP. These statements and information are based on assumptions relating in particular to the TRATON GROUP's business and operations and the development of the economies in the countries in which the TRATON GROUP is active. As far as information or statements on Navistar are concerned, the same applies to Navistar. Please note that TRATON SE has signed definitive agreements on the acquisition of Navistar but the acquisition requires a number of approvals and is therefore not yet closed.
The TRATON GROUP has made such forward-looking statements on the basis of the information available to it and assumptions it believes to be reasonable. The forward-looking statements and information may involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those forecasts. If any of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and information. The TRATON GROUP will not update this presentation, particularly not the forward-looking statements. The presentation is valid on the date of publication only.
Certain financial information and financial data included in this presentation are preliminary, unaudited, and may be subject to revision. Due to their preliminary nature, statements contained in this presentation should not be unduly relied upon, and past events or performance should not be taken as a guarantee or indication of future events or performance. Financial figures might be translated from different currencies, using the exchange rate prevailing at the relevant date or for the relevant period that the relevant financial figures relate to.
All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of TRATON SE or any affiliated company or any of its competitors are estimates based on data available to the TRATON GROUP. As far as information or statements on Navistar are concerned, the same applies to Navistar.
IHS Markit Data referenced herein are the copyrighted property of IHS Markit Ltd. and its subsidiaries ("IHS Markit"). The IHS Markit Data are from sources considered reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness thereof are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses published by IHS Markit representations of fact. The IHS Markit Data speak as of the original publication date thereof and are subject to change without notice. IHS Markit and other trademarks appearing in the IHS Markit Data are the property of IHS Markit or their respective owners.
The percentage figures shown may be subject to rounding differences. Due to different proportions and scaling graphs, data shown in different graphs is not comparable.

PRESS CONFERENCE CALL 3M 2021 INTERIM STATEMENT – YOUR PRESENTERS TODAY

Matthias Gründler
Chief Executive Officer

Christian Schulz
Chief Financial Officer

Julia Kroeber-Riel
Head of Group Communications, Governmental Relations & Sustainability

AGENDA
1. Environment
-
- Core KPIs 3M 2021
-
- Q&A Business Development
-
- Deep Dive E-Mobility
-
- Q&A E-Mobility

3M 2021 WAS A STRONG QUARTER FOR THE TRATON GROUP
| 3M 2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Business recovery continued, despite a still challenging environment |
Incoming Orders rise 51% to 81,742 |
Unit Sales up 31% to 60,315 |
|
| Net Cash Flow Industrial Business at €397 mn |
Adj. Operating Return on Sales up 5.0 pp to 7.9% |
Adj. Operating Profit more than tripled to €516 mn |

COVID-19 PANDEMIC STILL WITH RELEVANT IMPACT



GLOBAL ECONOMY IS RECOVERING FROM SETBACK FROM THE PANDEMIC
Growth expected for 2021, but environment still fragile

GDP forecasts for 2020/2021 as of Jan 2020 Jun 2020 March 2021


BUSINESS CLIMATE IS BRIGHTENING, MARKET VERY STRONG IN MARCH 2021
Truck registrations (> 16t) in Europe improving1

1 ACEA new heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) registrations of 16t and over for EU + EFTA + UK

GLOBAL CV INDUSTRY IS TRANSFORMING
EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL Agreement on EU Climate Law of a net 55% CO2 cut by 2030

MARKET RAMP-UP OF ALTERNATIVE DRIVES NECESSARY Purchase incentives for customers, investments in charging infrastructure and EU CO2 -based road charges needed
CLEAR E-MOBILITY STRATEGY Our top priority is to invest in fully electrified commercial vehicles


THE POSITIVE TREND CONTINUED IN 2021


AGENDA
1. Environment
-
Core KPIs 3M 2021
-
- Q&A Business Development
-
- Deep Dive E-Mobility
-
- Q&A E-Mobility


SNAPSHOT TRATON GROUP CORE KPIS 3M 2021
Trucks and buses (units)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2021 |
|---|---|
| 3M 2020 | 3M 2020 |
| Change | Change |
| 81,742 | 60,315 |
| 54,161 | 45,990 |
| 51% | 31% |
| INCOMING ORDERS | UNIT SALES |
| 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 1.36 1.18 18 bp BOOK TO BILL1 (RATIO IN UNITS) |
3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 3M 2021 3M 2020 Change 57,222 3,093 41,960 36% 4,030 -23% OF WHICH TRUCKS2 OF WHICH BUSES |


Financial key performance indicators (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 6,544 | 5,679 | 15% |
| SALES REVENUE |
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 516 | 161 | 355 | |
| ADJ. OPERATING RESULT1 |



Industrial Business (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 6,438 | 5,564 | 16% |
| SALES REVENUE |
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 465 | 135 | 330 | |
| ADJ. OPERATING RESULT1 |



Industrial Business (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 218 | -27% | 294 | 285 | 3% | ||
| CAPEX1 | PRIMARY R&D COSTS | ||||||
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | ||
| 397 | -167 | 565 | 397 | 27 | 370 | ||
| NET CASH FLOW | NET LIQUIDITY |


Financial Services (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 205 | 216 | -5% | 51 26 |
||
| SALES REVENUE | OPERATING RESULT |


SCANIA VEHICLES & SERVICES – CORE KPIS
Trucks and buses (units)
| 3M 2021 3M 2020 |
Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36,944 20,671 |
79% | 23,033 | 18,184 | 27% | |||||
| INCOMING ORDERS | UNIT SALES | ||||||||
| 3M 2021 |
3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | ||||
| 22,023 16,605 33% OF WHICH TRUCKS |
1,010 | 1,579 -36% OF WHICH BUSES |
|||||||


SCANIA VEHICLES & SERVICES – CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,420 | 2,982 | 15% | |||||
| SALES REVENUE |
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 409 | 256 | 154 | |||||
| OPERATING RESULT |



MAN TRUCK & BUS – CORE KPIS
Trucks and buses (units)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32,070 | 24,098 | 33% | 23,363 | 18,166 | 29% | ||||
| INCOMING ORDERS | UNIT SALES | ||||||||
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 |
3M 2020 | Change | ||||
| 22,590 | 17,060 | 32% | 773 | 1,106 | -30% | ||||
| OF WHICH TRUCKS1 | OF WHICH BUSES | ||||||||


MAN TRUCK & BUS – CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,645 | 2,267 | 17% | ||
| SALES REVENUE |
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | -78 | 149 | ||
| ADJ. OPERATING RESULT |



VOLKSWAGEN CAMINHÕES E ÔNIBUS – CORE KPIS
Trucks and buses (units)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,750 | 9,517 | 34% | 13,989 | 9,860 | 42% | |||
| INCOMING ORDERS | UNIT SALES | |||||||
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 | Change | |||
| 12,679 | 8,505 | 49% | 1,310 | 1,355 | -3% | |||
| OF WHICH TRUCKS | OF WHICH BUSES | |||||||


VOLKSWAGEN CAMINHÕES E ÔNIBUS – CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
| 3M 2021 | 3M 2020 |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 466 | 383 | 22% | |
| SALES REVENUE |
| 3M 2021 |
3M 2020 | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 12 | 21 | ||
| OPERATING RESULT |


POSITIVE TRUCK MARKET OUTLOOK, DEPENDING ON COVID-19 DEVELOPMENT
Truck market (˃ 6t, k units)

Source: Historical data based on own calculations and estimates. 1 EU27+3 region (EU27 countries without Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland) 2 Includes estimates from different institutes, companies and data and information services.


OUTLOOK 2021: RECOVERY AFTER STRONG DECLINE
TRATON GROUP Core KPIs

1 Before expenses from the MAN Truck & Bus restructuring program and effects from the planned acquisition of Navistar International Corporation.
2 FY 2019: adjusted RoS 7.0%, adjusted Operating Result €1.9 bn; FY 2020: adjusted Operating RoS 0.6%, adjusted Operating Result €135 mn.
3 The cash conversion rate for the year 2021 is losing its significance due to the restructuring of MAN Truck & Bus. Instead, as a performance indicator, we report the net cash flow in the Industrial Business.
4 FY 2019: reported net cash flow of €2,711 mn; adjusted net cash flow €518 mn before the sale of Power Engineering (€1,978 mn), parts of the RMMV Joint Venture (€101 mn incl. dividend) and repayment for amounts and interest resulting from security deposits provided in Brazil (€114 mn).

AFTER STRONG HEADWINDS IN 2020 TRATON IS READY FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2021
| Going forward | ||
|---|---|---|
| For 2021 Operating Return on Sales of between 5.0 and 7.0% expected |
Net Cash Flow Industrial Business €500 – 700 mn |
Closing on Navistar expected mid-2021 |
| Squeeze-out of MAN SE shareholders |
Start of introduction of the Common Base Engine (CBE) in H2 2021 |
Budget Shift to e-mobility, strong focus on BEV |

AGENDA
-
- Environment
-
- Core KPIs 3M 2021
-
- Q&A Business Development
-
- Deep Dive E-Mobility
-
- Q&A E-Mobility

AGENDA
-
- Environment
-
- Core KPIs 3M 2021
-
- Q&A Business Development
-
- Deep Dive E-Mobility
-
- Q&A E-Mobility

DEEP DIVE BEV – YOUR PRESENTERS TODAY

Dr. Atif Askar
Head of Business Development, Strategy and M&A

Dr. Andreas Kammel
Strategy and Business Development, responsible for Alternative Drives

Julia Kroeber-Riel
Head of Group Communications, Governmental Relations & Sustainability
ADOPTION OF NEW DRIVETRAINS IS DRIVEN BY COST AND THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
TRUCKS ARE CAPITAL GOODS – PURCHASE DECISION VIA TCO/TOE

| Customer focus | Cost of ownership | |
|---|---|---|
| Usage pattern | Homogeneous | |
| Annual mileage | ~130,000 km | |
| Fuel consumption | ~30-35 l/100km | |
| Product lifecycle | >10 years | |
| Vehicles sold | ~3 mn p.a. |
EXPECTED IMPACT OF ELECTRIFICATION ON TCO/TOE BREAKDOWN1

"Total operating economy" (TOE) augments "total cost of operation" (TCO) by other cost-relevant factors like payload effects, stand times…
EXPECTED CUSTOMER VALUE2
Reduction of CO2 footprint in line with future emission targets
Zero noise emission in sensitive areas
Gaining experience and capabilities in operating electrified vehicles
Crucially: lower fuel cost and meaningfully better TCO/TOE (mid-to-long-term)
ENERGY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT COST DRIVER – ENERGY COST ADVANTAGE KEY TO ADOPTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES

THE PROSPECTS OF COMMERCIAL BEV VEHICLES HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY
VIEW ON BEV IN LONG-HAULAGE, MID 2010s
"A truck capable of going 1000km hauling 27t […] would need a battery weighing 25t, and could only carry about 2t of cargo. And because a heavy-duty truck battery is so heavy and large, charging takes too long – typically 12 hours or more."
www.energyskeptic.com, 2016
BATTERY COST DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME
Battery pack cost, illustrative* [EUR/kWh]

5 years ago, few expected BEV conceptsto apply in long-haulage

BEV HAVE A MARKEDLY HIGHER SYSTEM EFFICIENCY THAN FCEV


BEV ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE COST-EFFICIENT THAN EITHER DIESEL OR FCEV
DELTA TOE: LONG-HAUL HEAVY DUTY – EUROPEAN AVERAGE, MID CASE*, INCL. REGULATORY EFFECTS


R&M Vehicle Battery / FC Energy Charging Payload impact Tolls / CO2
*middle-ground scenario regarding build-up of a hydrogen economy and charging infrastructure
Key takeaways:
- Battery & fuel cell costs ultimately of lower importance energy cost delta decisive, with BEV profiting most from regularlong-distance applications
- Both BEV and FCEV are likely to ultimately beat Diesel on cost but FCEV are unlikely to reach parity with BEV
- Strong deviation from some recent long-haul TCO studies by inclusion of a) fast charging, b) commercial EU electricity rates and c) known & expected advances on battery specs, including life cycles

NORDICS & WESTERN EUROPE LIKELY TO SEE EARLIEST BEV TOE PARITY
DRIVEN BY FAVORABLE ENERGY COST & REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT | TOLL EFFECTS SIGNIFICANT


BEV HAS A STRONG COST ADVANTAGE OVER FCEV AT REGULAR HIGH RANGE
COST-WISE, LONG-RANGE DRIVING IS THE REALM OF BEV, IF USED REGULARLY OR WITH FULLY DEVELOPED INFRASTRUCTURE
LONG-HAUL ANNUAL TOE BEV VS. FCEV – AVERAGE DAILY RANGE VS. DAILY VARIABILITY OF RANGE


Key takeaways:
- High daily range increasesthe annual cost advantage of BEV over FCEV, if mostly used regularly
- It is not high range, but high variability of range that is less favorable towards BEV, by
- a) reducing the share of energy cost
- b) slowing amortization of a large battery
- c) and, most importantly, severely increasing payload losses
- Still, the BEV cost advantage only breaks down when high daily range is combined with
- a) very high variability in daily range
- b) and (local) absence of fast-charging infrastructure
- Long-haulage favors FCEV over BEV only in case of highly variable long-distance requirements without full fast-charging infrastructure

THE BEV MARKET SHARE IS SENSITIVE TO CHEAP PRICES FOR GREEN H2
SYNERGY EFFECTS YIELD IMPROVING FCEV AND BEV CASES FOR ABUNDANT LOW-COST HYDROGEN
BEV/FCEV/OTHER MARKET SHARE – NAÏVE VERSION MARKET SHARE INCL. BEV-FCEV SYNERGIES

Synergies between abundant low-cost hydrogen and electricity yield challenging BEV-FCEV cost & market share parity

MOST LONG-TERM ADVANTAGES LIE ON THE BEV SIDE
| FCEV WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE WITH BEV IN THE 2020s … |
… BUT MAJOR LONG-TERM TRENDS TEND TO FAVOR BEV STRONGLY |
|
|---|---|---|
| Cost degression on components |
Lightweight, cheap batteries | |
| Significant subsidies | Autonomous Driving | |
| Emerging H2 economy | Increasing grid storage |
APPLICATIONS WHERE FCEV CAN BE A COMPLIMENTARY SOLUTION (EUROPE)
| Non-stop at high consumption |
Inhomogeneous usage |
Severe payload restrictions |
Competitive running costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time-critical two driver operations, with low price elasticity Significant auxiliary requirements or remote operations, w/o local infrastructure |
Irregularlong-distance requirements, e.g. due to low predictability High-flexibility vehicles, e.g. as augmentation in regularly operated fleet |
Applications beyond feasible battery impact, e.g. certain heavy transports & axle configurations Use cases with severe payload impact, e.g. long-distance coaches with two drivers |
Local operation subsidies, e.g. with Swiss toll exemptions Local cheap H2, e.g. around local cheap renewables, at steel plants or near import harbors |

SYNTHESIS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
BEV will become competitive with Diesel
no matter the scenario
This will happen earlier and faster than previously expected
Just fulfilling current EU emission regulations is not sufficient
Infrastructure is by far the most critical enabler for a smooth transition
OEMs will require FCEV as a complementary solution for certain use cases & markets
BEV will be mainstream across all major applications including long-haul

AGENDA
-
- Environment
-
- Core KPIs 3M 2021
-
- Q&A Business Development
-
- Deep Dive E-Mobility
-
- Q&A E-Mobility

CONTACTS GROUP COMMUNICATIONS

TRATON SE Dachauer Str. 641, 80995 Munich
www.traton.com
PRESS CONFERENCE CALL 3M 2021 INTERIM STATEMENT
MATTHIAS GRÜNDLER, CEO CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO
MUNICH - MAY 10, 2021