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Iren Management Reports 2017

Mar 8, 2018

4243_10-k_2018-03-08_52238b72-a488-47bf-9282-8e7b3a268451.pdf

Management Reports

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Abstract

3 YEARS
GROWTH

The FY 2017 Results are a further step along a growth path, started 3 years ago, leading the Company
to strong achievements:
o
Ebitda
up by 200 mil. (cagr>10%);
o
Nfp/Ebitda
from 3.7x to 2.9x;
o
Net Profit more than tripled;
o
DPS cagr
10%;
PILLARS
From the industrial standpoint the Company has strengthened its positioning in all the activities thanks to
a continuous results in:
o
Company rationalization; processes improvement; focus on knowledge
o
Organic growth supported by a strong investments' plan;
o
Consolidation activities through several M&A transactions;
FY 2017
All these elements are also the drivers underpinning the FY 2017 results confirming the effectiveness of
the Group strategy

FY 2017 results confirm 3 years of constant growth and financial improvement

*Restated ex IFRS 3

FY 2017: EBITDA guidance confirmed

  • Revenues +12.6%: Growth in revenues linked mainly to higher commodity prices (PUN +26.2%).
  • Ebitda +0.7%: The growth in Networks and the Waste sector offset both the expected worse scenario in the energy value chain and the negative impact deriving from the net balance of the capital gain from the sale of a gas turbine and the costs of the new lay-off scheme. In terms of operating EBITDA, the increase would have been higher than 7% if one-offs were excluded.
  • Ebit -1.5%: mainly because of higher D&A linked to the change in the scope of consolidation.
  • Net profit +32.2: Several items affected the growth in net profit: a significant decrease in financial charges, a lower tax rate and the assimilation of OLT's positive results. Dividend proposal 7€/c per share.
  • Tech. Capex +32.3%: Strong increase, in particular in network-based business, in line with plans.

GENERATION AND DH – Positive results confirming the growth trend

  • The growth reported in EBITDA is linked to an active management of the generation plant portfolio which again proved its resilience.
  • Generation sector's increase is linked mainly to better results in ancillary services and the sale of a turbine (+14m€) which offset the lower volumes produced by the Turbigo plants as a result of extraordinary maintenance in Q4.
  • Hydroelectric sector's 10% lower production (due mainly to run-of-the-river plants) was more than offset by higher PUN.
  • Heat sector: Continuous growth in the volumes heated, positively affecting the heat production trend.
m€ FY '16 FY '17 Δ Δ%
Revenues 908 1,104 196 22%
Ebitda 234 255* 21 9%
Ebit 104 138 34 34%
Gross Capex 60 56 -4 -7%

*Excluding 14m€ capital gains from the turbine sale, the increase in margin would have been 7m€.

MARKET – Significant growth in the client base and volumes sold were more than offset by the negative scenario

The overall negative scenario reported in the first nine months worsened further (as expected, the extraordinary conditions experienced in 2016 did not materialize in 2017). This trend was partially offset by:

  • Active client management (10 new downstream initiatives launched in 18 months) and client-base growth: +100K Clients; +29% electricity volumes sold to end clients.
  • Significant growth in the gas sector, thanks also to the utilization of stored gas bought during 2016 summer season.
m€ FY '16 FY '17 Δ Δ%
Revenues 2,187 2,418 231 11%
Ebitda 135* 111 -24 -18%
Electricity 52 20 -32 -62%
Gas&Heat 83 91 8 10%
Ebit 79 69 -10 -13%
Gross Capex 16 20 4 26%

*Excluding non-recurring 20m€ deriving from 2016, the EBITDA would have been substantially stable.

NETWORKS – Synergies, consolidation and an increase in RAB/Capex characterized the sector.

  • Energy networks: The absence of the «time-lag» effects reported in Q4 2016 (electricity sector) has been more than offset by synergies achieved, a better than expected white certificates purchase policy for 2016 requirements (gas sector) and by higher revenues for the electronic meters replacement (gas sector).
  • Water networks: the increase in EBITDA is linked mainly to the change in the scope of consolidation (Atena and SAP), allowing for higher revenues and synergies.
  • Increase in RAB (+2.6%) thanks to a wider scope of consolidation and to significantly higher investments (+39%) in line with the BP strategy
m€ FY '16 FY '17 Δ Δ%
Revenues 854 937 83 10%
Ebitda 319* 336 17 5%
Electricity 83 76 -7 -8%
Gas 73 87 14 19%
Water 163 173 10 6%
Ebit 183 179 -4 -2%
Gross Capex 149 207 58 39%

*Excluding 15m€ deriving from the "time lag", the increase would have been higher and the electricity sector performance would have been positive

WASTE – Higher saturation and better scenario.

  • Significant contribution from WTEs, (in particular from TRM) thanks to the full utilization of the plants, allowing for higher electricity and green certificates production.
  • Contribution from special waste (+36% in terms of volumes), part of which have been treated in REI, the new landfill in Collegno (Turin) for special waste which cameon stream in May/June of this year (+4m€).
m€ FY '16 FY '17 Δ Δ%
Revenues 502 551 49 10%
Ebitda 120 149 29 24%
Ebit 53 67 14 27%
Gross Capex 23 27 4 17%
FY '16* FY '17 Δ Δ%
EBITDA 814.2 820.2 6.0 0.7%
D&A -304.6 -321.9
Provisions -82.9 -78.0
EBIT 426.6 420.3 -6.3 -1.5%
Financial charges -93.0 -79.4
Other financial costs -43.9 -3.0
Companies cons with e.m.and adj. 19.4 31.2
EBT 309.2 369.1 59.9 19.4%
Taxes -118.1 -104.4
Minorities -11.2 -27.0
Group net profit 179.9 237.7 57.8 32.2%
  • Higher D&A linked mainly to ATENA/SAP consolidation and to the higher capex trend.
  • Provisions in line with expectations (reduction in BDP thanks to Clients' improved credit rating)
  • Lower financial charges thanks mainly to lower cost of debt and lower stock of debt
  • Lower other financial costs due to lower liability management costs, the FV of derivatives and lower actualization charges.
  • Higher contribution from companies consolidated with equity method mainly related to OLT results (~15m€ nonrecurring)
  • Lower tax-rate thanks to structural decrease in IRES and a number of non-taxable positive elements (ordinary tax rate 31%-32%).
  • Higher minorities due to better results in our subsidiaries (TRM, IREN Acqua etc.)

Cash-flow and NFP Bridge.

  • Continuous debt reduction (-85m€) thanks to:
  • o the robust operating cash-flow generation
  • o a stable NWC in spite of a +414m€ in revenues
  • Further company rationalization: expiry of the «IREN Rinnovabili» shareholders agreement and subsequent inclusion of the Company in IREN's consolidation perimeter.

Interest rate and debt structure.

  • 90% of gross debt at fixed interest rate.

  • Average long-term debt duration of about 5.9 years (5.1 years at the end of 2016).
  • Constant reduction in cost of debt (3.1% vs. 3.4% in FY 2016)
  • IREN's debt is formed of:
  • 56% Bonds
  • 32% EIB loans
  • 12% other loans

Effective full implementation of the strategic pillars has already led and will continue to lead the achievement of the business plan targets

  • Development through a significant growth in investments (+32%) and in RAB (+2.6%)
  • Financial flexibility target reached (NFP/EBITDA ratio <3x) making resources available for further territorial consolidation initiatives
  • M&A activity gaining momentum (the acquisition of 100% of ACAM will be completed by May 2018)
  • Acceleration of generational turnover thanks to the new lay-off scheme involving approximately 450 people
  • DPS at 7€/c +12% against previous year. It will be the starting point for the 10% expected increase per year during the business plan time-frame.

Annexes

IREN at a glance

. 185 mcm distributed volumes

URBAN WASTE COLLECTION

  • . 147 municipalities covered
  • . 1.4m tons of Municipal waste collected
  • . >60% of sorted waste
  • (vs. national avg. 52.5%)

  • . >900km of pipes and 870,000 inhabitants covered

  • . 87mcm of district heated volumes
  • . 3.0 Twht volumes produced

URBAN WASTE DISPOSAL

. 3 Waste To Energy plants (>800Kton/y)

(the only thermoelectric plant running on merchant base)

ENERGY MARKET

. ~10.0 TWh electricity uses; ~2.9 bcm gas uses

SPECIAL WASTE

. ~590K tons of special waste collected

Actual progress vs. business plan targets.

  • The results reported at the end of 2017 are in line with expectations
  • The completion of the ACAM business combination, expected by the end of May 2018, will generate approximately 30 million euros EBITDA (by 2022).

EBITDA progress by SBU

GENERATION AND DH

FY '14 FY '15 FY '16 FY '17 FY '22E 200 199 234 255 40 Incentives destined to expire 244

  • Full utilization of existing heat production sources (Plants/WTEs) thanks to the increase in volumes heated (+10mcm).
  • Additional volumes heated could come from a number of opportunities not included in the BP figures.
  • Increase in IREN's generation fleet flexibility, in order to be more competitive in ancillary services (neutral impact of capacity market expected).

  • Full deployment of the "New Downstream" project: +22% increase in client base, keeping the churn rate as one of the lowest in the sector.

  • Selective focus on Business Clients (S/M size companies and PA).
  • Shift from being a commodities provider to an expert in high value added services.
  • Digitalization will be one of the drivers of the reduction in cost-to-serve (50% of operations will be digitally carried out by 2022).

EBITDA progress by SBU

FY '14 FY '15 FY '16 FY '17 FY '22E WASTE 48 65 119 149 173

  • ~500m€ increase in RAB (+240m€ compared to the previous BP) thanks to higher investments.
  • Additional ~150m€ RAB in water sector coming from ACAM business combination (by the end of May 2018).
  • Maintaining all the gas and water concessions in which IREN is incumbent.
  • Possible participation in tenders related to ATEMs in IREN's reference areas (not included in the business plan figures).
  • Continuous improvement in asset/workforce management system, exploiting further synergies.
  • Significant increase in waste treatment capacity, starting from 2020 (plastic, organic fraction and paper) and consequently in profitability, also from special waste.
  • Self-sufficiency in completing the entire waste cycle thanks to IREN's 3 WTEs which will be fully connected to DH networks.
  • Confirming all the concessions currently owned. Possible participation in tenders within reference areas in which IREN is not incumbent (not included in BP figures).

Pag. 17

  • IREN has launched a new lay-off scheme involving approximately 450 people (rather higher than originally forecast)
  • The main objective of the new initiative is to further promote generational turnover, in line with the aim of doubling IREN workers <30y.o. by 2020
  • The motivation, mind-set and knowledge of young talent will be essential in pursuing the challenging development targets set in the latest business plan
  • The 2017 provision for the operation was approximately 34 million euros and it will be self-financed by the initiative itself.

2028

GAS
TENDERS
CONCESSIONS WASTE CONCESSIONS WATER ELECTR.
CONCESSIONS
ATEM Expiry Start AREA Expiry Start AREA Expiry Start AREA Expiry Start
Genova 1 Expired 2018 Parma Expired On
going
Piacenza Expired 2018 Torino 2030
Parma Expired 2018 Piacenza Expired On
going
Reggio Emilia Expired 2018 Parma 2030
Reggio
Emilia
Expired 2018 Reggio Emilia Expired 2018 Genova >2030 Vercelli 1 2030
Vercelli Expired 2019 Torino >2030 Parma 2025
Piacenza 2 -
Est
Expired 2019 Vercelli 1 2028 Vercelli 1 2023
Vercelli 2 2019 ACAM water concession will expire in
2033
ACAM waste concession will expire in

Regulated business wacc assumptions

GAS ELECTRICITY WATER
DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION SERVICE
Regulatory period 6 years (2014 – 8 years (2016 – 4 years (2016 –
2019) 2023) 2019)
WACC methodology update 6 years (2016 –
2021)
6 years (2016 –
2021)
-
WACC update every three years (2019) every three years (2019) every two years (2018)
2017 -
2018
2019 -
2022
Gas distribution 6.1% 5.9%
Gas metering 6.6% 6.4%
Electricity distrib. and metering 5.6% 5.6%
2017 2018 -
2019
5,31
2020 -
2022
Integrated water service 5.39%* 5.31%**
5.39%

Already defined values Assumptions

Water, Gas, and Electricity distribution regulation is defined by ARERA (Independent Authority for the regulation of energy, networks and waste) .

Starting from 1 January 2018, ARERA itself has been assigned the task of defining the regulation for the municipality waste collection. The process is ongoing.

Public Shareholders

2

Shareholders Agreements

The majority of IREN's Shareholders are public entities: FSU (50% Turin/50% Genoa Municipalities) ~33%, Emilia Municipalities (Reggio Emilia, Parma, Piacenza and other minor Municipalities) ~17%, La Spezia Municipalities ~2%.

Two Shareholders' agreements, expiring in May 2019, (one between Emilia Shareholders and one between the latter, FSU and former ACAM Municipalities) guarantee that all the most important decisions relating to Corporate Governance are taken by agreement of all the public Shareholders. In particular, out of 13 members of IREN's BoDs, 11 are appointed by the members of the shareholders agreement, including the CEO, Chairman and Vice-Chairman which are unanimously appointed.

The introduction of LSS in IREN's bylaws (May 2016) and the elimination of the obligation for Public shareholders to hold at least 51% of IREN's share capital, have already had the effect of increasing the free float (Public shareholders sold approximately 28 million shares in 2017 plus the conversion of >80 million preferred shares into ordinary shares)

3% Capital Increase (1.1% residual after ACAM transaction)

In May 2016 the Shareholders' meeting authorized IREN's BoDs to proceed, within 3 years, with a possible 3% capital increase (39.470.897 shares) related to M&A operations. 25.096.150 of these shares will be issued to finalize the IREN/ACAM business combination (1.93% of IREN's share capital).

*IREN Share capital increase reserved to ACAM La Spezia business combinationexpected by 31 May 2018. As of today, 28 ACAM shareholders, representing >90% of ACAM share capital, are committed to subscribe IREN's share capital increase.

Shareholders Total
Shares
%
Finanziaria
Sviluppo
Utilities
424,999,233 32.66%
Municipality
of
Reggio
Emilia
91,427,464 7.03%
Municipality
of
Parma
41,158,566 3.16%
Municipality
of
Piacenza
19,759,547 1.52%
Other
Municipalities
in
Emilia
73,992,424 5.69%
Former
ACAM
Municipalities
(La
Spezia)*
25,096,150 1.93%
Shares
owned
by
public
entities
676,433,384 51.98%
Free
float
624,888,443 48.02%
IREN's
Share
capital
1,301,321,827 100%

At present no public shareholder has a double voting right. Such right will mature 2 years after subscription in the Registered Shareholders list. Since June 2016 all the public entities which are parties to the shareholders agreement have subscribed to the Registered shareholders list.

IREN SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE TRADE REGIME OF PUBLIC SHAREHOLDERS' SHARES

Shareholders Total
Shares
Non-negotiable
shares
(until
may
2019)
Negotiable
shares
(under
specific
policy
to
avoid
overhang
risk)
Freely
negotiable
shares
(not
included
in
the
shareholders
agreement)
Finanziaria
Sviluppo
Utilities
424,999,233 359,135,573 65,863,660 -
Municipality
of
Reggio
Emilia
91,427,464 67,771,406 23,656,058 -
Municipality
of
Parma
41,158,566 16,323,853 2,993,713 21,841,000
Municipality
of
Piacenza
19,759,547 14,256,443 5,503,104 -
Other
Municipalities
in
Emilia
73,992,424 53,002,996 18,884,568 2,104,860
Former
ACAM
Municipalities
(La
Spezia)*
25,096,150 25,096,150 - -
Shares
owned
by
public
entities
676,433,384 535,586,421 116,901,103 23,945,860
652,487,524
shares
included
in

the shareholders agreement 140,846,963 negotiable shares equal

to 10.8% of IREN'sshare capital

Pag. 22 *IREN Share capital increase reserved to ACAM La Spezia business combinationexpected by 31 May 2018. As of today, 28 ACAM shareholders, representing >90% of ACAM share capital, are committed to subscribe IREN's share capital increase.

Scenario

FY '16 FY '17 Δ%
Gas Demand (bcm) 70.4 74.7 6.1%
TTF €/000 scm 148 180 22.0%
PSV €/000 scm 167 201 20.7%
Energy Demand (Twh) 314.3 320.4 2.0%
PUN (€/Mwh) 42.7 53.9 26.2%
CO2 €/Ton 5.4 5.8 8.7%
Green Cert. Hydro (€/Mwh) 100.1 107.3 7.2%

ACTUAL

2017 2020 2022
PUN (€/Mwh) 53.9 54.7 58.3
PSV (€/000
scm)
201 207 213
CO2 (€/Ton) 5.8 11.0 15.0
Clean SS/PSV (€/Mwh) 6.0 5.0 6.0
Green Cert. Hydro (€/Mwh) 107.3 97.8 94.7
Energy Efficiency cert. (€/Mwh) 303 200 200.0

BP ASSUMPTIONS

FY
'17
FY
'16*
Net
fixed
assets
5,412 5,244
Net
Working
Capital
181 171
Funds -617 -570
Other
assets
and
liabilities
-105 -91
Net
invested
capital
4,871 4,754
Group
Sharholders'
equity
2,499 2,297
Net
Financial
Position
2,372 2,457
Total
Funds
4,871 4,754

DISCLAIMER

The Manager in charge of drawing up the corporate accounting documents and the Chief Financial Officer of IREN S.p.A., Mr. Massimo Levrino, hereby declares, pursuant to paragraph 2 of article 154 bis of the Consolidated Finance Act (Legislative Decree No 58/1998), that the accounting information contained in this presentation is consistent with the accounting documents, records and books.

This document was prepared by IREN mainly for use during meetings with investors and financial analysts. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or subscribe shares and neither this entire document or any portion of it may constitute a basis or provide a reference for any contract or commitment.

Some of the information contained in this document may contain projected data or estimates that are based on current expectations and on opinions developed by IREN and are based on current plans, estimates, projections and projects. Consequently, it is recommended that they be viewed as indicative only.

Projected data and estimates entail risks and uncertainties. There are a number of factors that could produce significant differences between projected results and actual results. In addition, results may be affected by trends that are often difficult to anticipate, are generally beyond IREN's control and could produce results and developments that are substantially different from those explicitly or implicitly described or computed in the abovementioned projected data and estimates. The non-exhaustive list that follows being provided merely by way of example, these risks include: significant changes in the global business scenario, fluctuations in the prices of certain commodities, changes in the market's competitive conditions and changes in the general regulatory framework.

Notice is also given that projected data are valid only on the date they are produced. Except for those cases in which the applicable statutes require otherwise, IREN assumes no obligation to provide updates of the abovementioned estimates and projected data.