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Dovalue — Investor Presentation 2023
Nov 10, 2023
4145_ip_2023-11-10_e8a43ae4-f773-4262-ba69-b02ce3b8350f.pdf
Investor Presentation
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9M and Q3 2023 results
November 10th, 2023
1 Q2 2023 results


•Business Highlights
•Manuela Franchi Group CEO
2 Q2 2023 results

9M Main highlights
9M23 characterized by 3Q seasonality, FY23 in line with expectations

Solid operational momentum in 9M: collections up 7.3% YoY1 despite macro conditions
- 3Q 23 comparison affected by Mexico indemnity in 3Q 22, will normalize at YE with Q4 seasonally strongest quarter
- Primary NPL market lower than market expectations, focus on secondary market transactions in 2023
- Strong ongoing collections performance in Greece driven by positive macro (S&P investment grade rating assigned in Oct 2023)
- Right-sizing of Spanish operations underway, commercial focus on diversification: "new Clients, new Portfolios, new Services"
- Cost efficiency plan delivering above expectations with HR costs down 11% YoY and Opex down 33.8% YoY
- Net financial position at 2.9x due to WC seasonality in 3Q23, normalizing at 2.6-2.7x at YE 2023
A sound operating platform ready for the next macro cycle
•Note: 1) Excluding Sareb in 9M 2022

Expanding along the value Chain
From a pure servicer's Business Model to a diversified model



Macroeconomic trends across group's markets
NPE actual stocks lower than expectations: default rates -1.5% vs 2022 estimates for 2023 and -0.3% for 2024

•Sources: EBA Risk Dashboard, S&P Global, OECD, Bank of Italy, ISTAT, Eurostat, MEF, EC, Bank of Greece, Bank of Spain, figures for Spain include also REOs

NPL activity in 2023
Despite a weak credit servicing scenario, but expected to improve in next 2 years, doValue has continued to win servicing of new portfolios

Defaulted loans in Italy (€bn) Comments
- Tenure in credit quality, historical derisking by banks and resilience of global economy contributed to a significant decrease of the stock of defaulted loans and default ratios, with 2022 forecasts lowered in 2023 updates vs sector expectations
- In this macroeconomic scenario, doValue strived to achieve strong results in primary and secondary market transactions
- Wars (hiking commodity prices for households) and the effects of recent restrictive monetary policy (eroding profitability and operative margins for corporates) lead the market to expect a general rise in default rates
…but default rates are set to rebound in the next 2 yrs

doValue increasing share of 2023 transactions (€bn)

•Sources: Banca Ifis upon data from ISTAT, Eurostat, MEF, Bank of Italy, EC. Data for primary and secondary pipelines as of 09/2023 •(1) doValue was awarded a total of €3.5bn (19% market share): €0.4bn in Italy, €0.7bn in Spain and €2.4bn in Cyprus
6 9M 2023 results Q2 2023 results

doTransformation program is successfully reshaping our cost base
| Extract more revenues per unit of GBV managed |
Update operating Enhance productivity model and reduce to lower costs per cost break-even point GBV managed |
Strengthen human capital |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initiatives | Economic Impact | |||
| Greece | Efficiencies achieved = 160 FTEs • • Customer support and call center are the most impacted areas, with 25% of HC reduction |
|||
| Spain | 48% reduction in Local IT Opex trough applications reduction • • 79% reduction in Property & Asset Transformation costs trough new technology and renegotiation of contracts 82% reduction in back-office and operations activities. Efficiencies • continue to progress 80 FTE external reduction through new service model • |
Over 300 FTEs as an outcome of the efficiency workstreams |
||
| Portugal | • Operations department size reduced by 60% |
~15% | ||
| Italy | Text mining and evolution of operating model to reduce FTE • reduction by 50FTE • Renewal and upgrade of asset management platform to realize €1m opex savings |
of optimized IT OpEx | ||
| Group | • Set the grounds for reduced IT OpEx vs start of the project with full effect from 2024 and onwards |

Tech-infused operational efficiency to maximise value

Artificial Intelligence 10% of transactions fully managed by Virtual Asset Manager 30% of time reduced on manual/low value activities from Asset Managers 5% Improve recovery rate ~ Operational Impact ▪ Offering a tailor-made experience, based on better knowledge of our customers ▪ Opening new channels, facilitating interaction and accessibility ▪ Incorporating self-service solutions 10% Servicing Costs reduction Enhanced capabilities Value added Digital Platforms Omnichannel ▪ Propensity Models for debtor segmentation and repayment likelihood maximizing expected recovery ▪ New revenue streams based on services, predicting behaviour, risk and targeting collection strategy ▪ Faster onboardings through automated verifications, clean up and enrichment of onboarded data ▪ Content generation enhancing operations and transactions ▪ Documents semantic search and feature extraction Automation Advanced Analytics ▪ Reduction of manual and administrative activities ▪ Digitalize and faster the process, facilitating coordination between internal teams Natural Language Understanding

Pipeline of potential new business (18 months)

GBV potential pipeline of ~€14-15bn addressable transactions in the next 18 months

ESG strategy


Rating ESG Group Sustainability Plan - Target 2023
| 7 AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY |
RESPONSIBLE 12 CONSUMPING AND PRODUCTION |
|---|---|
| ---------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ |
▪ Purchase of certified 100% renewable electricity, reducing related Scope 2 emissions (market-based method)
▪ People Engagement Survey participation of employees and collaborators consistently above 70%
- 75% of employees trained in Code of Ethics, Anticorruption
- 75% of employees trained in Privacy
- All suppliers in Italy, Spain and Greece assessed according to sustainability criteria

2023 Targets achievement ongoing


•Davide Soffietti Group CFO
11 Q2 2023 results

Financials at a glance
| EMARKET SDIR CERTIFIED |
|---|
| Item | Q3 2021 |
Q3 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Delta '22-'23 |
Excluding Sareb |
9m 2021 |
9m 2022 |
9m 2023 |
Delta '22-'23 |
Excluding Sareb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBV | €150bn | €137bn | €118bn | -14.3% | -7.1% | €150bn | €137bn | €118bn | -14.3% | -7.1% |
| Collections | €1.3bn | €1.1bn | €1.0bn | -11.2% | +0.3% | €4.0bn | €3.9bn | €3.4bn | -13.0% | +7.3% |
| Collection Rate | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | +0.5 p.p. | ||||||
| Gross Revenues | €132m | €154m | €106m | -31.4% | -27.3% | €386m | €426m | €335m | -21.2% | -11.7% |
| Net Revenues | €117m | €142m | €97m | -32.0% | -17.4% | €339m | €380m | €305m | -19.8% | -11.9% |
| EBITDA ex NRIs | €43m | €68m | €36m | -47.9% | -46.0% | €116m | €152m | €115m | -24.0% | -16.0% |
| EBITDA ex NRIs margin | 32.8% | 44.2% | 33.5% | -11 p.p. | 30.1% | 35.7% | 34.4% | -1.3 p.p. | ||
| Attributable Net Income ex NRIs |
€9m | €22m | €2m | -89.1% | €23m | €46m | €19m | -57.7% |
•Note: Delta % calculated on data rounded to the second decimal numeral in this presentation

Gross Book Value

Gross Book Value – 9m 2023 (€bn)

- GBV at €117.8Bn vs. EoP 2022 €120.5Bn, mainly driven by:
- Inflows from existing clients: strong contribution from all contracts increasing from €1.7bn in 9M 22 to €2.6bn in 9M 23 (+53%)
- Inflows from new clients: +€6.1bn mainly related to secondary market (€1.1bn) and Frontier II in Greece, Sky in Cyprus, Efesto UTP in Italy and new mandates in Spain
- Collections: €3.4bn with collection rate improving 0.5p.p. YoY to 4.5% and lower collection/write-off ratio thanks to more UTP in the mix
- Disposals: €3.9bn mainly related to secondary portfolio sales (€1.1bn) and Pillar transfer in Greece, Unicredit and Santander disposals
- GBV committed: €0.4bn in Italy

Gross Revenues

37 31 133 113 25 15 100 50 92 60 193 172 154 106 426 335 Q3 2022 Q3 2023 9m 2022 9m 2023 24% 16% 60% 34% 15% % of total 51% 29% 14% 57% 31% 24% 45% -21.2% -11.7% ex Sareb -31.4% -27.3% ex Sareb
Italy Iberia Hellenic region
Gross Revenues (€m) Comments
▪ Group
- Collections grow by 7.3% YoY excluding Sareb
- Gross revenues decrease YoY mainly due to Sareb off-boarding in Spain and seasonality, with large indemnity recorded in 9M22 vs larger proportion of disposals expected in Q4 23 (indemnities typically around €15-20m per year, double in 9M 22)
▪ Italy
- Minor decrease in collections (-4% YoY) mainly due to NPL, partially offset by increasing UTP (>100% YoY), with lower fees schemes
- Higher Ancillary revenues (+5%)
▪ Hellenic Region
- Strong collections up +25% YoY
- Comparison with 9M22 affected by indemnity fees from the disposal of Mexico portfolio accounted in Q3 2022
- Iberia
- Lower collections and gross revenue due to Sareb offboarding effect
- Timing of ramp-up of new business contribution
- Lower flows from Santander due to contained default ratios
- Deceleration in real estate market

GBV & Gross Revenues breakdown


•Note: (1) Gross Revenues including Servicing Revenues only, thus excluding €43.7m from ancillary services
15 9M 2023 results Q2 2023 results

Operating Expenses


- Significant reduction in Operating costs, down 17% YoY, driven by doTransformation plan
- Cost efficiency measures implemented in all regions, and in particular in Spain post Sareb
- All cost categories have been reduced thanks to cost saving activities
▪ Decline in HR costs by 10.6% YoY
- Mainly driven by Sareb restructuring in Spain
- Significant reduction in HR costs in Italy (also linked to one-off release of LTI allocations for former CEO)
- €6.4m run-rate savings from FTE reduction in Spain from 2024
▪ Decline in Opex by 33.8%
▪ Mainly driven by Sareb restructuring program as well as effects of doTransformation plans in Italy and Greece

EBITDA

5 0.8 32 23 -2 -1.4 5 -3 65 36 115 95 43 68 36 116 152 115 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Q3 2023 9m 2021 9m 2022 9m 2023 Italy Iberia Hellenic region EBITDA ex NRIs (€m) Comments 44% 36% 8% 92% % of total 34% 34% 100% 3% 76% 21% 83% 20% -24.0% -16.0% Ex Sareb -47.9% -46.0% Ex Sareb EBITDA ex NRIs margin 30% 33%
▪ Group
▪ EBITDA on an underlying basis (net of Sareb effect and Mexico indemnity in 3Q22) stable YoY thanks to significant cost efficiency measures and rightsizing in Spain
▪ Italy
- EBITDA negatively impacted by lower revenues
- Includes Group costs allocation1
▪ Hellenic Region
- Strongest performance in the Group with >80% EBITDA
- Q3 2022 impacted by the extraordinary item constituted by Mexico portfolio disposal
- Iberia
- Increase in collection rate
- Delay in onboarding new Investors' portfolios and new business growth initiatives
- Reduced inflows of NPL from Santander
- Negative impact from REOs sales due to real estate market prices
- Significant cost efficiency initiatives

Regional Performance



Net Income



Cash Flow


Comments
- Positive Cash Flow from Operations of €37.9m in 9M 2023 vs. €63.9m in 9M 2022. Difference mainly due to Mexico indemnity recorded in 3Q 2023
- Better performance on NWC vs 9M22 in all regions due to a specific action plan to focus BUs on cash generation
- Change in Other assets and liabilities substantially in line vs 9M 2022, main effects are related to:
- Redundancies (€10m)
- Frontier deferred price (€6m)
- IFRS 16 leases (€11m)
- Adv. Payment in REO Project in Spain (€3m)
- Other liabilities included for ~€15m
- Cash taxes paid for €23.3m reflecting schedule of tax payments in Greece (advance on taxes calculated on a very strong 2022 net income)
- Interest on bond coupon in 9M 2023 for €23.3m
- Dividends paid to ERB in Greece for €5.2m
Note: (1) In order to better represent the substance of cash flow dynamics, some items have been reclassified from other asset/liabilities to NWC (ERB advance payments)

Financial Structure


Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
▪ Strong liquidity position
- Around €92m cash position as of Sept. 2023 after dividend payment.
- Approximately €120m of total gross credit lines
- Pool of Italian, Spanish and Greek banks
▪ All bond debt structure, no maturity before 2025, all fixed coupon bonds
- €265m issued in Aug-20 (5.0% coupon, 2025 maturity)
- €300m bond issued in Jul-21 (3.375% coupon, 2026 maturity)
- Standard & Poor's: BB rating and Stable outlook, confirmed in June
- Fitch: BB rating and Stable outlook, confirmed in June
- Outstanding bonds decreased by approximately €5m after bond buyback on secondary market to deploy liquidity
▪ YE Leverage expected well below policy limit of 3.0x
▪ Leverage ratio expected at approx. 2.7x

2023 Guidance and closing remarks

Positive results trajectory despite challenging macro environment
- Solid collection performance, in particular in Greece and Spain
- Strong macro momentum in Greece with improvement to investment grade by S&P outlining positive trajectory
- Cost discipline across all countries and good execution of Spanish re-sizing
- Macro headwinds and proactive approach of banks will underpin new business opportunities in 18-24 months




•Appendix
23 Q2 2023 results
Condensed income statement



Condensed balance sheet
| 9/30/2023 | 12/31/2022 | Change € | Change % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and liquid securities | 95,667 | 134,264 | (38,597) | (28.7)% |
| Financial assets | 52,374 | 57,984 | (5,610) | (9.7)% |
| Property, plant and equipment | 52,410 | 59,191 | (6,781) | (11.5)% |
| Intangible assets | 500,735 | 526,888 | (26,153) | (5.0)% |
| Tax assets | 115,127 | 118,226 | (3,099) | (2.6)% |
| Trade receivables | 158,902 | 200,143 | (41,241) | (20.6)% |
| Assets held for sale | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
| Other assets | 55,471 | 29,889 | 25,582 | 85.6% |
| Total Assets | 1,030,702 | 1,126,598 | (95,896) | (8.5)% |
| Financial liabilities: due to banks/bondholders | 581,179 | 564,123 | 17,056 | 3.0% |
| Other financial liabilities | 115,750 | 120,861 | (5,111) | (4.2)% |
| Trade payables | 48,282 | 70,381 | (22,099) | (31.4)% |
| Tax liabilities | 62,833 | 67,797 | (4,964) | (7.3)% |
| Employee termination benefits | 8,582 | 9,107 | (525) | (5.8)% |
| Provisions for risks and charges | 32,940 | 37,655 | (4,715) | (12.5)% |
| Other liabilities | 48,358 | 75,754 | (27,396) | (36.2)% |
| Total Liabilities | 897,924 | 945,678 | (47,754) | (5.0)% |
| Share capital | 41,280 | 41,280 | - | n.s. |
| Reserves | 42,590 | 83,109 | (40,519) | (48.8)% |
| Treasury shares | (4,006) | (4,332) | 326 | (7.5)% |
| Profit (loss) for the period attributable to the Shareholders of the Parent Company |
5,742 | 16,502 | (10,760) | (65.2)% |
| Net Equity attributable to the Shareholders of the Parent Company |
85,606 | 136,559 | (50,953) | (37.3)% |
| Total Liabilities and Net Equity attributable to the Shareholders of the Parent Company |
983,530 | 1,082,237 | (98,707) | (9.1)% |
| Net Equity attributable to Non-Controlling Interests | 47,172 | 44,361 | 2,811 | 6.3% |
| Total Liabilities and Net Equity | 1,030,702 | 1,126,598 | (95,896) | (8.5)% |
Condensed cash flow

| 9/30/2023 | 9/30/2022 | 12/31/2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 115,335 | 149,562 | 198,708 |
| Capex | (9,160) | (13,733) | (30,833) |
| EBITDA-Capex | 106,175 | 135,829 | 167,875 |
| as % of EBITDA | 92% | 91% | 84% |
| Adjustment for accrual on share-based incentive system payments |
(4,761) | 4,810 | 5,557 |
| Changes in Net Working Capital (NWC) (*) | (10,269) | (26,950) | (15,137) |
| Changes in other assets/liabilities | (53,175) | (49,771) | (74,697) |
| Operating Cash Flow | 37,970 | 63,918 | 83,598 |
| Corporate Income Tax paid | (19,961) | (25,368) | (44,042) |
| Financial charges | (23,329) | (20,200) | (27,146) |
| Free Cash Flow | (5,320) | 18,350 | 12,410 |
| (Investments)/divestments in financial assets | 2,285 | 2,428 | 3,664 |
| Dividends paid to minority shareholders | (5,000) | (5,002) | (5,002) |
| Dividends paid to Group shareholders | (47,618) | (36,763) | (39,140) |
| Net Cash Flow of the period | (55,653) | (20,987) | (28,068) |
| Net financial Position - Beginning of period |
(429,859) | (401,791) | (401,791) |
| Net financial Position - End of period |
(485,512) | (422,778) | (429,859) |
| Change in Net Financial Position | (55,653) | (20,987) | (28,068) |

Glossary

| BPO | Business Process Outsourcing, i.e. the outsourcing of non-strategic support activities by banks |
|---|---|
| Early Arrears | Loans that are up to 90 days past due |
| Forward Flows | Agreement with commercial bank related to the management of all future NPL generation by the bank for number of years, customary feature of credit servicing platforms spun off by commercial banks |
| FTE | Full Time Equivalent, i.e. a unit that indicates the workload of an employed person in a way that makes workloads comparable across various contexts |
| GACS | Garanzia Cartolarizzazione Sofferenze, i.e. the State Guarantee scheme put together by the Italian Government in 2016 which favoured the creation of a more liquid NPL market in Italy and allowed banks to more easily deconsolidate NPL portfolios through securitisations |
| GBV | Gross Book Value, i.e. nominal value of assets under management by doValue, represents the maximum / nominal claim by banks / investors to borrowers on their portfolios |
| HAPS | Hercules Asset Protection Scheme, i.e. the State Guarantee scheme put together by the Greek Government in 2019 with the aim of favouring the creation of a more liquid NPL market in Greece and to allow banks to more easily deconsolidate NPL portfolios through securitisations |
| NPE | Non-Performing Exposure, i.e. the aggregate od NPL, UTP and Early Arrears |
| NPL | Non-Performing Loan, i.e. loans which are more than 180 days past due and have been denounced |
| NRI | Non-Recurring Items, i.e. costs or revenues which are non-recurring by nature (typically encountered in M&A or refinancing transactions) |
| Performing Loans |
Loans which do not present problematic features in terms of principal / interest repayment by borrowers |
| REO | Real Estate Owned, i.e. real estate assets owned by a bank / investor as part of a repossession act |
| UTP | Unlikely to Pay, i.e. loans that are between 90-180 days past due and denounced or more than 180 past due and not denounced |

Disclaimer

This disclaimer applies to all documents and information provided herein and to any verbal or written comments of person presenting them.
This presentation and any materials distributed in connection herewith, taken together with any such verbal or written comments, including the contents thereof (together, the "Presentation") do not constitute or form a part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe any securities, and neither this Presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any such offer would only be made by means of formal offering documents, the terms of which shall govern in all respects.
You are cautioned against using this information as the basis for making a decision to purchase any security or to otherwise engage in an investment advisory relationship with doValue S.p.A. and its affiliates ("doValue"). The distribution of this Presentation in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restriction. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the laws of any such other jurisdiction.
This Presentation has been prepared based on the information currently available to us and is based on certain key underlying assumptions. The information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of doValue its subsidiaries or any of their respective employees, advisers, representatives or affiliates shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss however arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this Presentation. The information contained in this Presentation is provided as at the date of this Presentation and is subject to change without notice.
Statements made in this Presentation may include forward-looking statements. These statements may be identified by the fact that they use words such as "anticipate", "estimate", "should", "expect", "guidance", "project", "intend", "plan", "believe", and/or other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with, among other things, any discussion of results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies or developments in the industry in which we operate. Such statements, including specifically any guidance or projection, are based on management's current intentions, expectations or beliefs and involve inherent risks, assumptions and uncertainties, including factors that could delay, divert or change any of them.
Forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation and, in particular, in any relevant guidance, regarding trends or current activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Actual outcomes, results and other future events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the statements and guidance contained herein. Such differences may adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein and may result from, among other things, changes in economic, business, competitive, technological, strategic or regulatory factors and other factors affecting the business and operations of the company. Estimated and assumptions are inherently uncertain and are subject to risks that are outside of the company's control. Any guidance and statement refers to events and depend upon circumstances that may or may not verify in the future and refer only as of the date hereof. Neither doValue S.p.A. nor any of its affiliates is under any obligation, and each such entity expressly disclaims any such obligation, to update, revise or amend any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
You should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements and or guidance, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation. The inclusion of the projections herein should not be regarded as an indication that the doValue considers the latter to be a reliable prediction of future events and the projections should not be relied upon as such. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results and such differences may be material. It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please also note that interim results are not necessarily indicative of full-year results.
By reviewing the Presentation, you acknowledge that you are knowledgeable and experienced with respect to its financial and business aspects and that you will conduct your own independent investigations with respect to the accuracy, completeness and suitability of the matters referred to in the Presentation should you choose to use or rely on it, at your own risk, for any purpose.
Certification pursuant article 154 BIS, paragraph 2 of Italian Legislative Decree no. 58 of 24 February 1998 (the Consolidated Financial Law)
Pursuant to Article 154 bis, paragraph 2, of the "Consolidated Law on Finance", Mr Davide Soffietti, in his capacity as the Financial Reporting Officer with preparing the financial reports of doValue S.p.A, certifies that the accounting information contained in this document, is consistent with the data in the supporting documents and the Group's books of accounts and other accounting records.
Investor Relations Contacts
Name: Stefano Songini Head of Investor Relations, Communication & Sustainability E-mail: [email protected]


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29 Q2 2023 results