AI assistant
Celsius Resources Limited — Investor Presentation 2014
Jan 28, 2014
10450_rns_2014-01-28_75512c67-f65c-4c1d-8ec4-2098bc88d3de.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
PREMIUM COAL SUPPLY FOR CHINA AND CENTRAL ASIA
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
The information contained in this presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Celsius Coal Ltd (“Company” or “Celsius” or “CLA”) and is being communicated for general background informational purposes only. The information contained in this Presentation is subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and further amendment. Neither the Company, nor its shareholders, directors, officers, agents, employees, or advisors give, has given or has authority to give, any representations or warranties (express or implied) as to, or in relation to, the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation, or any revision thereof, or of any other written or oral information made or to be made available to any interested party or its advisers (all such information being referred to as “Information”) and liability therefore is expressly disclaimed.
Information contained in this Presentation is the property of the Company. It is made available strictly for the purposes referred to above. Neither the communication of this Presentation nor any part of its contents is to be taken as any form of commitment on the part of the Company to proceed with any transaction. This Presentation does not constitute, or form part of, any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities in the Company, nor shall it, or the fact of its communication, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever with respect to such securities This Presentation is not to be communicated to any other person or used for any other purpose and any other person who receives communication of this Presentation should not rely or act upon it. In furnishing this Presentation, the Company does not undertake or agree to any obligation to provide the attendee with access to any additional information or to update this Presentation or to correct any inaccuracies in, or omissions from, this Presentation that may become apparent either during, or at any time after this Presentation.
The Information in this Presentations which relates to Coal Resources, Exploration Targets and Exploration Results should be read in conjunction with the Competent Persons statements on page 42 including the relevant disclaimers. The use of the terms Coal Resources, Exploration Targets and Exploration Results is consistent with their definitions in the 2004 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’ and references to these terms are made with these definitions in mind.
2
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Company snapshot
3
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Ca italization summar p y
Corporate structure
| Shareprice(at Jan 24, 2014) A$0.014/share |
|---|
| Shares outstanding 2,010.9m |
| Market capitalization A$28.2m |
| Net cash (at Dec 31, 2013)1 A$0.2m |
| Enterprise value A$53.5m |
| Note: 1. $2.2m cash and $2.5m drawn from convertible note facility. Total liquidity is estimated at $6.8m (including cash, $2.5m |
| of undrawn convertible note facility and $1.6m in expected options |
| proceeds). |
Share price (LTM – A$/share)
==> picture [250 x 194] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [418 x 378] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Australia
Celsius Coal
Ltd.
Hong Kong 100% 80%
Osphur (HK) Kokkia Coal
Ltd. (HK) Ltd.
Kyrgyz Republic
90% 100% 100%
Asia Pacific Pandj-Sher
Baidamar JSC
Resources LLC ANK LLC
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Sary
Bel Alma Kargasha Min Teke Kokkia
Mogol
Alai Range licenses Uzgen Basin coking coal licenses
Mining license Exploration license
----- End of picture text -----
4
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [483 x 278] intentionally omitted <==
Uzgen Basin coking coal licenses
Kargasha
Status: Exploration license Size: 8,000ha
Kokkia
Status: Exploration license Size: 1,576ha
Alai Range licenses
Sary Mogol Status: Mining license Size: 8ha
Bel Alma Status: Exploration license Size: 329ha
Min Teke Status: Mining license Size: 187ha
– Licenses containing JORC Resources
5
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
-
Name and position Background Alexander Molyneux Previously CEO, SouthGobi Resources (2009-2012) – largest foreign coal producer in Executive Chairman Mongolia (US$550M market cap./ US$800M EV) (Executive Director) Prior to SouthGobi, 10-years metals and mining investment banking, including Managing Director, Head of Metals and Mining Asia Pacific for Citigroup
-
Directorships: Ivanhoe Energy (2010-); Goldrock Mining (2012-); Azarga Resources (2012-); and Blumont Group (2014-)
-
Alistair Muir Competent Person for purposes of JORC Code and over 20 years experience as a Technical & Operations Director practising geologist, 15+ of those covering coal (Executive Director) Experience covers all aspects of mine evaluation including optimisation of mining method, environmental, geotechnical, hydrogeological and financial evaluation
-
Bill Oliver Qualified geologist with over 12 years experience with both majors and juniors
-
Non-Executive Director Previously Exploration Director and then Managing Director of Signature Metals – went from explorer to producer with gold project in Ghana
-
Directorship: Minbos Resources (2013-)
Ranko Matic
Company Secretary and NonExecutive Director
-
Qualified Chartered Accountant with over 20 years experience in financial and executive management, accounting, audit and corporate advisory
-
Currently a Director at Bentleys, a Perth-based accounting and corporate advisory firm
-
Directorships: East Energy Resources (2007-); and Valmec Limited(2012-)
Matthew O’Kane
Chief Financial Officer
-
Previously VP and then CFO, SouthGobi Resources (2011-2012)
-
18 years experience in finance roles in the mining and manufacturing industries
-
Directorship: Powertech Uranium Corp. (2013-)
6
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Investment themes
7
1
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Summary of existing coal JORC Resources (Uzgen Basin Coking Coal)[1 ]
==> picture [402 x 174] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Inferred Total
Kargasha 230 230
Kokkia 25 25
Min Teke – –
Total 255 255
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [229 x 172] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [683 x 92] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Total near-term targeted tonnages (including exploration targets) [1 ]
JORC Resources Exploration target Total
Uzgen Basin Coking Coal 255 55 – 110 310 - 365
----- End of picture text -----
Notes: 1. Please refer to the Competent Persons Statement on the last slide relating to these Coal Resources and exploration targets. The information on this slide relating to Exploration Targets should not be misunderstood or misconstrued as an estimate of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves.
8
2
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Chinese coal classification
Indicative coal qualities (international system)
==> picture [692 x 373] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Kargasha Kokkia
Fat (FM) Gas fat (QF)
Calorific Value [daf]
7,862 [(1)] 7,800-8,500 [(3)] 85
(Kcal/kg)
1/3
Coking (JM) Gas
Volatile Matter [ad]
coking
31.6 [(2)] 29.5 [(2)]
(%)
65
Inherent 60
1.3 [(2)] 1.2 [(2)]
Moisture (%) Kokkia/Kargasha
Anthracite
potential coking coal
50
(non-JORC, statistical
Lean
Ash [ad] (%) 12.7 [(2)] 9.9 [(2)] assessment only)
1/2 caking
35
30
Sulphur [db] (%) 0.64 [(2)] 0.65 [(2)]
20
Meager Weakly caking Long flame
Free Swell Index 7-7.5 [(1)] 8-9 [(4)] lean
5 Meager Non-caking
Notes: Basis of reporting: 1. Statistical analysis of Celsius’ 2012 drilling. 2.
Extract from the JORC resource estimation computer modeling. 3. Data is 0 10 20 28 37 50
sourced from Soviet era historical data. 4. Based on statistical assessment Volatile matter (%)
Caking Index (G)
----- End of picture text -----
Notes: Basis of reporting: 1. Statistical analysis of Celsius’ 2012 drilling. 2. Extract from the JORC resource estimation computer modeling. 3. Data is sourced from Soviet era historical data. 4. Based on statistical assessment of 2013 drilling.
9
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
3
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [321 x 227] intentionally omitted <==
Xinjiang Province China, basic facts
-
Population: 22m
-
GDP/capita: US$4,600 (1/3-1/2 coastal levels)
Xinjiang development and infrastructure
-
Xinjiang has been highlighted as a special case for policy-led growth initiatives
-
Total of RMB 2.1tn (US$333bn) to be spent to 2020 for infrastructure
-
Kashgar (south west Xinjiang) has been established as a new Special Economic Zone to promote Central Asia trade
-
Development goals by 2015 require:
-
170,000km of new roads
-
8,200km of new rail
-
22 new airports
Steelmaking goals by 2015
-
Produce 23mtpa steel by (i.e. double current levels)
-
10mtpa of special steel production
-
Improve blast furnace efficiency – shut blast furnaces smaller than 400m[3 ]
-
Only 2% of Xinjiang’s coal is coking
10
3
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Coking coal supply / demand gap[1 ]
Prime coking coal supply / demand gap
PCC Production (Mt) PCC Demand (Mt)
==> picture [335 x 304] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
PCC
1/3CC 19.0
18.4
Gas coal
Fat coal 16.6
Lean coal
11.5
7.8
3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Supply vs Demand (Mt)
----- End of picture text -----
==> picture [336 x 238] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
----- End of picture text -----
- Assuming coal blend mix: PCC 37%, 1/3CC 30%, gas coal 25%, fat coal 5% and lean coal 3%. Source: Sxcoal, Bryanston research
11
3
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Xinjiang premium coking coal price vs. seaborne quarterly hard coking coal benchmark price
==> picture [646 x 348] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
350
Quarterly Contracted HCC Price (USD/t)
Xinjiang PCC Price (USD/t)
300
250
200
150
100
50
Forecast
0
Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16
----- End of picture text -----
Source: Sxcoal, Bryanston research, Analyst Consensus HCC Pricing, Bloomberg
12
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
3
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [600 x 391] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Crude steel production (Mt)
22.5
12.0
Aletai
Takeshiken
2012 2015e Alashankou
Karamay
Laoyemiao
Yining
Changji
Torugart URUMQI Hami
Irkeshtam
Kizilsu
Aksu
Turpan
Kashgar
Bayingol
Hotan
Steel Plant
Coking Plant
Project in progress
Celsius Coal deposit
Border
----- End of picture text -----
Source: China 12[th] five year plan; Sxcoal; Bryanston research
13
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
3
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Kazakhstan – thermal coal price US$65-90/t
Bishkek / Talas market – US$65105/t
Jalalabad / Osh market – thermal coal price US$85-140/t
==> picture [470 x 298] intentionally omitted <==
Tajikistan – thermal coal price US$85-160/t
14
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
4
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
-
Distance from Uzgen Basin Coking Coal Project to Torugart border of approximately 300km
-
Estimated transport cost to border US$8/t plus US$4-5/t estimated charges for customs etc. for border clearance (ie, total delivery cost to China US$12-13/t)
-
Major consumer market in Kashgar, a further US$8/t inland transport cost
Torugart border crossing
15
4
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Commentary
Proposed Trans-Asia Railway
==> picture [377 x 319] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
Uzgen
Basin
Torugart
border
----- End of picture text -----
-
China, Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan have a plan to construct a 20mtpa railway, linking the three countries with Chinese rail at Kashgar
-
Route options have been determined and feasibility study is completed (with a capital cost estimate US$2-3bn)
-
China is considering sponsoring the project.
-
Routes come within 10km of Celsius’ Uzgen Basin coking coal project
-
Reduced transport cost estimates of: US$5-6/t to border (ie, US$2-3/t reduction vs. trucking)
16
5
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
-
Concept study highlighted the potential for auger mining (as used at Yarabee mine in Queensland)
-
Celsius identified a concept for a 500-600ktpa ‘starter mine’ potential for 7-8 years initial mine life from small selection of Kokkia/Kargasha
-
Conceptual benefits are:
-
Quick to production – 10 months lead time on major equipment
-
Low capital spend – US$20-25 million (US$10-12 million for augers and remainder for surface infrastructure and ancillary equipment)
-
Low cash costs – <US$10 per tonne at the mine gate
-
Focus within Celsius now to move to feasibility of a ‘quick start’ auger operation (or alternative high-wall miner) in this 2014 work season
-
Auger mining would generate near-term cash flow and de-risk the larger project for openpit and underground mining
17
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
5
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [298 x 233] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [226 x 211] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [281 x 204] intentionally omitted <==
18
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Milestones and strategies
19
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
- Coke strength testing expected completion in February 2014
MOU agreements with key customers in February/March 2014
-
Revised resource estimate March 2014
-
Environmental baseline studies
2014
Auger/high wall mining feasibility – go/no go decision around April/May 2014
-
Kokkia open pit pre-feasibility
-
Positioning thermal resources
-
Acquisition additional production capacity & new exploration
-
Auger/high wall mining trial production (Q1)
2015
-
Development/disposal thermal resources
-
Detailed drilling indicated/measured resource Kokkia/Kargasha
-
Finalize feasibility for 3-5mtpa integrated coal mine
-
Ramp up ‘starter’ auger/high wall mining operation
2016-2017
Progress integrated mine start-up with initial focus on open pit mining
- Tran-Asia Railway construction due to commence (2015)
20
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
More on geology
21
22
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [638 x 403] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Inter reted cross-sections showin 2012 and historical drillin p g g
==> picture [686 x 345] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
A B
4.89m coal 4.29m coal
in 7 seams in 8 seams
C D
4.43m coal
in 4 seams
DD12TK007
DD12TK002
DD12TK001
----- End of picture text -----
23
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
Inter reted cross-sections showin 2012 and historical drillin p g g
==> picture [708 x 349] intentionally omitted <==
----- Start of picture text -----
E
F
4.94m coal
8.52m coal
in 10 seams
in 16 seams
G
H
1.63m coal 9.28m coal
in 3 seams in 14 seams
DD12TK003 DD12TK006
DD12TK004 DD12TK005
----- End of picture text -----
24
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [687 x 128] intentionally omitted <==
-
Schematic cross section through the Kargasha and Min Teke prospects showing
-
interpreted geology and the structure of the Tuyuk formation
-
Note the shallow dip of the beds as well as small scale folding resulting in the coal remaining relatively close to the surface
-
The Uzgen coal basin has not undergone significant deformation unlike other coal basins in Kyrgyz Republic
25
==> picture [191 x 97] intentionally omitted <==
==> picture [720 x 15] intentionally omitted <==
The information in this announcement that relates to Coal Resources is based on information compiled by Dr Gavin Springbett, a Competent Person who is a Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Dr Springbett is acting as a consultant to Celsius Coal Limited and is an employee of G&S Resources. Dr Springbett has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves. Dr Springbett consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this announcement that relates to Exploration Results is based on information compiled by Dr David Hornsby, a Competent Person who is a Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Dr Hornsby is acting as a consultant to Celsius Coal Limited and is an employee of Gallagher Consulting Services Pty Ltd and is a member of The Minserve Group Pty Ltd. Dr Hornsby has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (“JORC Code”). Dr Hornsby consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this Presentation that relates to Exploration Targets is based on information compiled by Alistair Muir who is Technical & Operations Director of Celsius Resources and a Member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Mr Muir has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’. Mr Muir consents to the inclusion in this Presentation of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
Exploration Targets
It is common practice for a company to comment on and discuss its exploration in terms of target size and type. The information in this announcement relating to Exploration Targets should not be misunderstood or misconstrued as an estimate of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves. Hence the terms Resource(s) and Reserve(s) have not been used in this context in this announcement. The potential quantity of coal presented in this announcement as Exploration Targets are conceptual in nature. It should be noted that there has been insufficient exploration to define a Mineral Resource which complies with the JORC code, and it is uncertain if further exploration will result in the determination of a Mineral Resource. Celsius Coal Limited intends to carry out an exploration programme to systematically test the Exploration Targets for each of the Prospects.
26