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Celsius Resources Limited — Investor Presentation 2013
Sep 26, 2013
10450_rns_2013-09-26_7bfa8dc9-2dea-4bf8-b380-131d0b7e5992.pdf
Investor Presentation
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PREMIUM COAL SUPPLY FOR CHINA AND CENTRAL ASIA
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The information contained in this presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by Celsius Coal Ltd (“Company” or “Celsius” or “CLA”) and is being communicated for general background informational purposes only. The information contained in this Presentation is subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and further amendment. Neither the Company, nor its shareholders, directors, officers, agents, employees, or advisors give, has given or has authority to give, any representations or warranties (express or implied) as to, or in relation to, the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this Presentation, or any revision thereof, or of any other written or oral information made or to be made available to any interested party or its advisers (all such information being referred to as “Information”) and liability therefore is expressly disclaimed.
Information contained in this Presentation is the property of the Company. It is made available strictly for the purposes referred to above. Neither the communication of this Presentation nor any part of its contents is to be taken as any form of commitment on the part of the Company to proceed with any transaction. This Presentation does not constitute, or form part of, any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities in the Company, nor shall it, or the fact of its communication, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever with respect to such securities This Presentation is not to be communicated to any other person or used for any other purpose and any other person who receives communication of this Presentation should not rely or act upon it. In furnishing this Presentation, the Company does not undertake or agree to any obligation to provide the attendee with access to any additional information or to update this Presentation or to correct any inaccuracies in, or omissions from, this Presentation that may become apparent either during, or at any time after this Presentation.
The Information in this Presentations which relates to Coal Resources, Exploration Targets and Exploration Results should be read in conjunction with the Competent Persons statements on page 42 including the relevant disclaimers. The use of the terms Coal Resources, Exploration Targets and Exploration Results is consistent with their definitions in the 2004 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’ and references to these terms are made with these definitions in mind.
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Company snapshot
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Company snapshot Capitalization and structure
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Capitalization summary Corporate structure
Share price (at Sep 26, 2013) A$0.027/share Australia
Celsius Coal
Shares outstanding 1,990.0m Ltd.
Market capitalization A$53.7m
Net cash (at Sep 26) [1] A$0.2m Hong Kong 100% 80%
Enterprise value A$53.5m Osphur (HK) Kokkia Coal
Note: 1. $2.2m cash and $2m drawn from convertible note facility. Ltd. (HK) Ltd.
Total liquidity is estimated at $6.8m (including cash, $3m of
undrawn convertible note facility and $1.6m in expected options
proceeds). Kyrgyz Republic
90% 100% 100%
Share price (LTM – A$/share)
Asia Pacific Pandj-Sher
Baidamar JSC
Resources LLC ANK LLC
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Sary
Bel Alma Kargasha Min Teke Kokkia
Mogol
Alai Range licenses Uzgen Basin coking coal licenses
Mining license Exploration license
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Company snapshot License location and tenure
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Uzgen Basin coking coal licenses Kargasha
Status: Exploration license Size: 8,000ha
Kokkia
Status: Exploration license Size: 1,576ha
Alai Range licenses
Sary Mogol
Status: Mining license Size: 8ha
Bel Alma
Status: Exploration license Size: 329ha
Min Teke
Status: Mining license Size: 187ha
– Licenses containing JORC Resources
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Company snapshot Directors and senior management
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Name and position Background
-
Alexander Molyneux n Previously CEO, SouthGobi Resources (2009-2012) – largest foreign coal producer in Executive Chairman Mongolia (US$550M market cap./ US$800M EV) (Executive Director) n Prior to SouthGobi, 10-years metals and mining investment banking, including Managing Director, Head of Metals and Mining Asia Pacific for Citigroup
-
n Directorships: Ivanhoe Energy (2010-); Goldrock Mining (2012-); and Azarga Resources (2012-)
-
Alistair Muir n Competent Person for purposes of JORC Code and over 20 years experience as a Technical Director practising geologist/geophysicist, 15+ of those covering coal (Executive Director) n Experience covers all aspects of mine evaluation including optimisation of mining method, environmental, geotechnical, hydrogeological and financial evaluation
-
Bill Oliver n Qualified geologist with over 12 years experience with both majors and juniors Non-Executive Director n Previously Exploration Director and then Managing Director of Signature Metals – went from explorer to producer with gold project in Ghana
-
n Led large scale resource definition projects for Rio Tinto
-
Ranko Matic n Qualified Chartered Accountant with over 20 years experience in financial and executive Company Secretary and Non- management, accounting, audit and corporate advisory Executive Director n Currently a Director at Bentleys, a Perth-based accounting and corporate advisory firm n Directorships: East Energy Resources (2007-); and Core Services Group (2012-)
-
Matthew O’Kane n Previously VP and then CFO, SouthGobi Resources (2011-2012) Chief Financial Officer n 18 years experience in finance roles in the mining and manufacturing industries n Directorship: Powertech Uranium Corp. (2013-)
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Investment themes
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Large-scale coking coal resource 1
JORC Resource of 255 million tonnes with upside
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Summar of existin coal JORC Resources Uz en Basin Cokin Coal y g ( g g )[1 ]
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Inferred Total
Kargasha 230 230
Kokkia 25 25
Min Teke – –
Total 255 255
Total near-term targeted tonnages (including exploration targets) [1 ]
JORC Resources Exploration target Total
Uzgen Basin Coking Coal 255 55 – 110 310 - 365
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Notes: 1. Please refer to the Competent Persons Statement on the last slide relating to these Coal Resources and exploration targets. The information on this slide relating to Exploration Targets should not be misunderstood or misconstrued as an estimate of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves.
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Premium quality coals
2
Uzgen Basin licenses contain quality coking coals
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Indicative coal qualities (international system) Chinese coal classification
Kargasha Kokkia
Fat (FM) Gas fat (QF)
Calorific Value [daf]
7,862 [(1)] 7,800-8,500 [(3)] 85
(Kcal/kg)
1/3
Coking (JM) Gas
Volatile Matter [ad] coking
31.6 [(2)] 29.5 [(2)]
(%)
65
Inherent 60 Indicative
1.3 [(2)] 1.2 [(2)]
Moisture (%) Anthracite Kargasha and
Kokkia
50
potential
Lean
Ash [ad] (%) 12.7 [(2)] 9.9 [(2)]
1/2 caking
35
30
Sulphur [db] (%) 0.64 [(2)] 0.65 [(2)]
20
Meager Weakly caking Long flame
Free Swell Index 7-7.5 [(1)] - lean
5 Meager Non-caking
Notes: Basis of reporting: 1. Statistical analysis of Celsius’ 2012 drilling. 2.
Extract from the JORC resource estimation computer modeling. 3. Data is 0 10 20 28 37 50
sourced from Soviet era historical data. Volatile matter (%)
Caking Index (G)
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Proximity to growing high-value markets 3
China: Xinjiang, the Chinese neighbour with unique prospects
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Xinjiang Province China, basic facts
-
n Population: 22m
-
n GDP/capita: US$4,600 (1/3-1/2 coastal levels)
Xinjiang development and infrastructure
-
n Xinjiang has been highlighted as a special case for policy-led growth initiatives
-
n Total of RMB 2.1tn (US$333bn) to be spent to 2020 for infrastructure
-
n Kashgar (south west Xinjiang) has been established as a new Special Economic Zone to promote Central Asia trade
-
n Development goals by 2015 require:
-
n 170,000km of new roads
-
n 8,200km of new rail
-
n 22 new airports
Steelmaking goals by 2015
-
n Produce 23mtpa steel by (i.e. double current levels)
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n 10mtpa of special steel production
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n Improve blast furnace efficiency – shut blast furnaces smaller than 400m[3 ]
-
n Only 2% of Xinjiang’s coal is coking
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Proximity to growing high-value markets
3
China: Xinjiang already has a coking coal supply deficit
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Coking coal supply / demand gap
Prime coking coal supply / demand gap
PCC
Produc7on
(Mt) PCC
Demand
(Mt)
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PCC
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1/3CC 19.0
18.4
Gas
coal
Fat
coal 16.6 7.0
Lean
coal 6.8
6.1
11.5
4.2
7.8
2.9
3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Supply vs Demand (Mt)
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- Assuming
coal
blend
mix:
PCC
37%,
1/3CC
30%,
gas
coal
25%,
fat
coal
5%
and
lean
coal
3%. Source:
Sxcoal,
Bryanston
research
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Proximity to growing high-value markets
3
China: Xinjiang prices are independent of seaborne and rising
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Xinjiang premium coking coal price vs. seaborne quarterly hard coking coal benchmark price
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350
Quarterly
Contracted
HCC
Price
(USD/t)
Xinjiang
PCC
Price
(USD/t)
300
250
200
150
100
50
Forecast
è
0
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Jul
12
Jan
13
Jul
13
Jan
14
Jul
14
Jan
15
Jul
15
Jan
16
Jul
16
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Source: Sxcoal,
Bryanston
research,
Analyst
Consensus
HCC
Pricing,
Bloomberg
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Proximity to growing high-value markets 3 China: Target customers have been identified and engaged
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Crude
steel
produc7on
(Mt)
22.5
12.0
Aletai
Takeshiken
2012
2015e
Alashankou
Karamay
Laoyemiao
Yining
Changji
Torugart URUMQI Hami
Irkeshtam
Kizilsu
Aksu
Turpan
Kashgar
Bayingol
Hotan
Steel
Plant
Coking
Plant
Project
in
progress
Celsius
Coal
deposit
Border
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Source:
China
12[th] five
year
plan;
Sxcoal;
Bryanston
research
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Proximity to growing high-value markets 3 Kyrgyz Republic and Central Asia: Premium markets
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Kazakhstan – thermal coal price US$65-90/t
Bishkek / Talas market – US $65-105/t
Jalalabad / Osh market – thermal coal price US$110-140/t
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Tajikistan – thermal coal price US$130-160/t
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Feasible routes to market
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A primary road route has been selected for initial exports
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-
n Distance from Uzgen Basin Coking Coal Project to Torugart border of approximately 300km
-
n Estimated transport cost to border US$8/t plus US$4-5/t estimated charges for customs etc. for border clearance (ie, total delivery cost to China US$12-13/t)
n Major consumer market in Kashgar, a further US$8/t inland transport cost
Torugart border crossing
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Feasible routes to market
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Railway is expected to reduce transport costs by 2017
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Commentary
Proposed Trans-Asia Railway
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Uzgen
Basin
Torugart
border
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n China, Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan have agreed to construct a 20mtpa railway, linking the three countries with Chinese rail at Kashgar
-
n Route options have been determined and feasibility study is completed (with a capital cost estimate US$2-3bn)
-
n China will sponsor the project to complete by the end of 2016
-
n Routes come within 10km of Celsius’ Uzgen Basin coking coal project
-
n Reduced transport cost estimates of: US$5-6/t to border (ie, US$2-3/t reduction vs. trucking)
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Low capex starter mine conceptualized 5
Internal concept study yielded positive results for auger mine
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n Concept study highlighted the potential for auger mining (as used at Yarabee mine in Queensland)
n Celsius identified a concept for a 500-600ktpa ‘starter mine’ potential for 7-8 years initial mine life from small selection of Kokkia/Kargasha
n Conceptual benefits are:
n Quick to production – 10 months lead time on major equipment
n Low capital spend – US$20-25 million (US$10-12 million for augers and remainder for surface infrastructure and ancillary equipment)
n Low cash costs – <US$10 per tonne at the mine gate
n Focus within Celsius now to move to feasibility of a ‘quick start’ auger operation (or alternative high-wall miner) in this 2013/14 work season
n Auger mining would generate near-term cash flow and de-risk the larger project for openpit and underground mining
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Milestones and strategies
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2013-2014
n 2013 drilling completed by October – analytical data December n Bulk sample testing completed December 2013 – off-take agreements soon after n Revised resource estimation March 2014 n Environmental baseline studies n Auger/high wall mining feasibility – go/no go decision around March 2014 n Kokkia open pit pre-feasibility n Positioning thermal resources n Acquisition additional production capacity & new exploration
2014-15
2015-17
n Auger/high wall mining trial production n Development/disposal thermal resources n Detailed drilling indicated/measured resource Kokkia/Kargasha n Finalize feasibility for 3-5mtpa integrated coal mine n Ramp up ‘starter’ auger/high wall mining operation n Progress integrated mine start-up with initial focus on open pit mining n Tran-Asia Railway construction due to commence (2015)
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More on geology
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Geological map of Kyrgyz Republic
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2012 and Soviet era work locations
Resource status
Kargasha (230 million tonnes)
-
n Contained in 11 seams (seam cut-off
-
0.5m)
-
n Seven new 2012 cored holes
-
(approximately 3,800m)
-
n 60 Soviet era drill holes
-
(approximately 29,000m)
-
n 164 Soviet era adits
Kokkia (25 million tonnes)
-
n Contained in 10 seams (seam cut-off
-
0.5m)
-
n 16 Soviet era adits
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E
B H
F
A
C
G
D
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*A-‐B,
C-‐D,
E-‐F
and
G-‐H Interpreted
Cross
Sec7ons
through the
Kargasha
License
showing Celsius
2012
and
historical
Soviet era
drilling.
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Interpreted cross-sections showing 2012 and historical drilling
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A B
4.89m coal in 4.29m coal
7 seams in 8 seams
C D
4.43m coal in
4 seams
DD12TK007
DD12TK002
DD12TK001
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Interpreted cross-sections showing 2012 and historical drilling
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E
F
4.94m coal in
8.52m coal in 10 seams
16 seams
G
H
1.63m coal in 9.28m coal in
3 seams 14 seams
DD12TK003 DD12TK006
DD12TK004 DD12TK005
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n Schematic cross section through the Kargasha and Min Teke prospects showing
interpreted geology and the structure of the Tuyuk formation
n Note the shallow dip of the beds as well as small scale folding resulting in the coal remaining relatively close to the surface
n The Uzgen coal basin has not undergone significant deformation unlike other coal basins in Kyrgyz Republic
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n Better define geological understanding & likelihood of commercial, high-margin production
n Extend resources where possible
n Non-JORC resource assessment
n Conceptual mine plans for shorter and longer term
n Understand market positioning
n Assets that do not pass certain economic hurdles may be disposed of
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About Kyrgyz Republic
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- Countr back round y g
Politics
-
n Size:199,900km2 (halfway between UK and Greece in size)
-
n Location: Central Asia, west of China and south of Kazakhstan
-
n Population: 5.5m people of Central Asian / Turkic decent (83%) and European (mainly Russian) – median age of 25, 60% of population younger than 30
Econom y
-
n System: parliamentary democracy
-
n Key figures
-
n President: Almazbek Atambayev (SDP) – elected in late-2011 for six-year term
-
n Prime Minister: Zhantoro Satybaldiev (Ind.) – appointed by parliament September 2011
-
-
n History
- n Separated from Soviet Union in 1990
-
n GDP: US$13.1bn (2011 growth 5.7%)
-
n GDP per capita: US$1,070 (one tenth Kazakhstan or Malaysia levels, and around one fifth of Mongolia and China)
-
n Main GDP constituents: agriculture (20%); metals and mining (14%); industry (13%); and services (51%)
-
n Unemployment: 8.6%
-
n 1990-2010: power concentrated in presidency and only two ‘hard line’ presidents
-
n 2010: protests against president and change to constitutional democracy
-
n 2010 constitution: reduced the power of the presidency to create a real parliamentary democracy
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China-K r z relations y gy
Premier Wen and PM Sat baldiev 2012 y ( )
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-
n China and Kyrgyz Republic were both founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 1996
-
n China now represents 80% of Kyrgyz export income and Kyrgyz has become the single largest customer for Chinese goods in Central Asia (much re-exported)
-
n Kyrgyz is receiving assistance on a number of projects – China Road and Bridge Company (CRBC) has completed the re-development of the Osh-Irkeshtam highway with the assistance of a ‘soft loan’ from China Development Bank
New China embassy completed in 2011
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n Chinese assistance is now proposed to extend to a complete re-development of remaining transport infrastructure, together with provision of a tractor manufacturing plant and cotton processing plant
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Basic elements of law and administration
Fiscal regime
-
n Minerals licensing is predominantly managed by the State Agency for Geology (SAG), which reports to the Ministry of Economy as a ministry appointed by the parliament
-
n Exploration licenses (ELs) are issued by SAG generally for two years
-
n Total royalty: 4.3%, made up of:
-
n Mineral royalty for coal: 2.0%
-
n Road tax: 0.8%
-
n Emergency prevention tax: 1.5%
-
-
n Corporate income tax: 10.0%
-
n ELs require minimum work programs to be met and then are extendable (for up to ten years)
-
n Any resource found on an EL can be registered as a resource (ie, registered in the national inventory) and then the EL holder has the exclusive right to a mining license (ML)
-
n MLs are issued for 20 years and are extendable until the completion of the resource life
-
Foreign investment protection
-
n Decree on Protection of Investments – law made in April 2010 alongside the adoption of the new constitution
-
n Provides protection against illegal seizure or interference of business and employment activities
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Celsius Coal Limited Registered Office: Level 1, 12 Kings Park Road, West Perth, WA, AUSTRALIA, 6005 Telephone: +61 8 9226 4500 Facsimile: +61 8 9226 4300
Corporate Office: 4607-11 The Center, 99 Queens Road, Central District, HONG KONG Telephone: +852 3796 7105 Website: www.celsiuscoal.com.au Email: [email protected]
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The information in this announcement that relates to Coal Resources is based on information compiled by Dr Gavin Springbett, a Competent Person who is a Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Dr Springbett is acting as a consultant to Celsius Coal Limited and is an employee of G&S Resources. Dr Springbett has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves. Dr Springbett consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this announcement that relates to Exploration Results is based on information compiled by Dr David Hornsby, a Competent Person who is a Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Dr Hornsby is acting as a consultant to Celsius Coal Limited and is an employee of Gallagher Consulting Services Pty Ltd and is a member of The Minserve Group Pty Ltd. Dr Hornsby has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (“JORC Code”). Dr Hornsby consents to the inclusion in this announcement of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
The information in this Presentation that relates to Exploration Targets is based on information compiled by Grant Thomas who is Managing Director of Celsius Resources and a Member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Mr Thomas has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’. Mr Thomas consents to the inclusion in this Presentation of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
[Exploration Targets ]
It is common practice for a company to comment on and discuss its exploration in terms of target size and type. The information in this announcement relating to Exploration Targets should not be misunderstood or misconstrued as an estimate of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves. Hence the terms Resource(s) and Reserve(s) have not been used in this context in this announcement. The potential quantity of coal presented in this announcement as Exploration Targets are conceptual in nature. It should be noted that there has been insufficient exploration to define a Mineral Resource which complies with the JORC code, and it is uncertain if further exploration will result in the determination of a Mineral Resource. Celsius Coal Limited intends to carry out an exploration programme to systematically test the Exploration Targets for each of the Prospects.
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