TRATON SE

Investor Presentation • Apr 7, 2025

Q1 2025 PRE-CLOSE CALL ANALYST / INVESTOR PRESENTATION

DISCLAIMER

This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only.

The presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation, nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation to the securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any such securities.

The presentation as well as remarks, comments and explanations in this context contain forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the TRATON GROUP. These forward-looking statements and information reflect our current views about future events and are based on assumptions relating to the TRATON GROUP's business and the development of the economies in the countries in which the TRATON GROUP is active.

The TRATON GROUP has made such forward-looking statements on the basis of the information available to it and assumptions it believes to be reasonable. The forward-looking statements and information may involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements and/or any forecasts. This applies in particular, if any of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect. Any changes in significant parameters relating to these forward-looking statements, especially with regards to key markets in which the TRATON GROUP is active, or any significant shifts in exchange rates, market regulation, energy and other commodity prices or the supply with parts relevant to the TRATON GROUP will have a corresponding effect on the business development. In addition, there may also be departures from the expected business development if the factors influencing sustainable value enhancement and the risks and opportunities presented develop in a way other than currently expected, or if additional risks and opportunities or other factors emerge that affect the development of the business. TRATON SE does not assume any responsibility for updating forward-looking statements in this presentation.

All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of TRATON SE or any affiliated company or any of its competitors are estimates based on data available to the TRATON GROUP.

The percentage figures shown may be subject to rounding differences. All figures are rounded, so minor discrepancies may arise from addition of those amounts. Due to different proportions and scaling in graphs, data shown in different graphs are not comparable.

2025e: -5% – +5% (2024 +12% | 172)

South America (k units, >6t)

181 163

MARKET DEVELOPMENT

EU27+3¹ (k units, >6t)

2025e: -15% – -5% (2024 -6% | 365)

0 100 200 300 400 500 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 384 427

)

North America (k units, class 6-8²

2025e: -10% – 0% (2024 -4% | 427)

400

500

• ― Ongoing weakness, increased hesitation among US customers due to tariff uncertainties.
  • ― Increased doubts about EPA 2027 emission rule and prebuy in 2025.
• ― Declining Brazilian market momentum could be partly compensated by a strong demand from Argentina.

6t > 16t

• ― European order momentum continued positively in January and February, b-t-b >1.
• ― Too early to call out a turnaround, also with European truck registrations not yet picking up.
• ― Persisting price pressure.

1 EU27+3 region (EU27 countries without Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland) 2 USA and Canada class 6-8, Mexico class 4-8

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM US TARIFFS

2024 facts & useful information:

• ―Sold ~70k units (trucks & busses) in the US, of which ~65% assembled in Escobedo/Mexico plant.
• ―Nearly 100% of North American Class 8 trucks assembled in Mexico.
• ―~70% of total North American unit sales (trucks & busses into Mexico, Canada, USA) assembled in Mexico, and ~30% in USA.
• ―Four US production facilities sourced ~75% from US, ~15% from Mexico ~10% from overseas.
• ―Production in North America USMCA compliant under current requirements applying to trucks & busses.

April 2 announcement from US administration:

• ―Trucks & busses not included in the automotive 25% tariff, and USMCA compliant production continues to be exempt from tariffs.
• ―Imported truck & bus parts fall under reciprocal tariff rates announced on April 2; steel and aluminum tariffs will also have an impact (applies to all units produced in the US, also for export).
• ―Too early to assess the financial impact; depends not only on Tier 1 supplier impact, but also Tier 2 and 3, and capability to pass on cost increases.

VARIOUS OTHER TOPICS

Potential repeal of EPA 2027 regulation

• ―Our assumption: EPA 2027 regulations will prevail, possibly with slightly higher NOx level, but without extended warranty.
• ―S13 Integrated Powertrain cleanest powertrain available on the market. Only a small incremental step is needed to certify for EPA 2027.

Defense exposure

• ―Product portfolio includes trucks with armored cabs, which may be used in the defense industry.
• ―These vehicles represent below 1% of Group's sales revenue and unit sales.
• ―With rising military expenditures in Europe, this proportion could increase to 2-3%.

China plant

• ―Construction is progressing well; aim to start truck production by end of 2025.
• ―Total investment ~2 billion Euro of capex and R&D, approximately half of that already spent until end of 2024.
• ―Most of remaining ~1 billion Euro expected to be invested in 2025, until start of production. About 50% planned to be directly expensed.
• ―China project is fully included in Scania financials.

BRAND DEVELOPMENTS

• ― Q1 2025 margin expected to be impacted by lower volumes, stronger SEK, costs for China production ramp-up.
• ― With improved European sentiment towards H2 2025, volume effect on margins should fade.

• ― Ongoing challenges due to weak European market, affecting unit sales and capacity utilization.
• ― Anticipate lower RoS especially in H1 2025.
• ― Favorable order development of Q4 2024 continued into Q1 2025.

Scania MAN International VWTB

• ― Reduced transport activities and uncertainty around tariffs and EPA 2027 influence order intake.
• ― Expect lower unit sales, reduced capacity utilization and lower fixed cost absorption to significantly impact margin in Q1 2025.
• ― Solid truck market in Brazil continues to bolster performance, even if momentum is slowing down.
• ― Positive development in Argentina.

2025 OUTLOOK

AS PUBLISHED ON 10 MARCH 2025

	FY 2024	FY 2025 Outlook
TRATON GROUP
Unit sales (units)	334,215	-5 ‒ +5%
Sales revenue (€ million)	47,473	-5 ‒ +5%
Operating return on sales (adjusted) (in %)	9.2	7.5 ‒ 8.5
TRATON Operations
Sales revenue (€ million)	46,182	-5 ‒ +5%
Operating return on sales (adjusted) (in %)	10.3	8.5 ‒ 9.5
Net cash flow (€ million)	2,834	2,200 ‒ 2,700
Capex (€ million)	1,751	significant increase
Primary R&D costs (€ million)	2,458	slight decrease
TRATON Financial Services
Return on equity (in %)	10.8	8.0 ‒ 11.0

Our 2025 full-year outlook is subject to future geopolitical developments, particularly in the US, and their impact on TRATON GROUP's business.

―Maintain our outlook of a stronger H2 performance than H1.
-------------------------------------------------------------	--

• ―Expected Q1 2025 impacts:
  • ―Lower unit sales and sales revenues due to the macroeconomic environment, and the resulting challenges for brands.
  • ―Geopolitical environment adds uncertainty and causes increased customer hesitation. This, combined with the China ramp-up costs, is expected to affect both our Group margins and cash flow of TRATON Operations.
• ―European order intake appears promising, and the German infrastructure package might contribute to positive sentiment.

TRATON SHARE FREE FLOAT

• ―On 19th March, Volkswagen Group successfully placed:
  • ―11 million TRATON shares,
  • ―worth 360 million Euro,
  • ―pricing at 32.75 Euro per share.
• ―Increase of free float from 10.3% to 12.5%.
• ―Since placement, we observed a meaningful uplift in trading liquidity of our shares.

• Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.
• Free Float

IR CONTACT AND Q1-RELATED EVENTS

Contacts		Events
Ursula Querette Head of Investor Relations +49 152 021 52 400 ursula.querette@traton.com	Thomas Paschen Investor Relations +49 170 907 34 94 thomas.paschen@traton.com	09/04/2025	Q1 Unit Sales Figures
		28/04/2025	Q1 2025 Results, End of Quiet Period
		29/04/2025	Virtual Roadshow Germany
Matthias Maucher Investor Relations +49 170 381 60 25 matthias.maucher@traton.com	Marie Fischhaber Investor Relations +49 152 256 00 705 marie.fischhaber@traton.com	30/04/2025	Roadshow London