Investor Presentation • May 4, 2020
Investor Presentation
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3M 2020 RESULTS Munich, 04 May 2020
ANDREAS RENSCHLER, CEO CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO
ISIN: DE000TRAT0N7 WKN: TRAT0N Bloomberg Ticker: 8TRA GY / 8TRA SS http://ir.traton.com
This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE or any company of TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation, nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation to the securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE or any company of TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any such securities.
The following presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the TRATON GROUP. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as "expects", "anticipates", "intends", "plans", "believes", "seeks", "estimates", "will" or words with similar meaning. These statements and information are based on assumptions relating in particular to TRATON GROUP's business and operations and the development of the economies in the countries in which the TRATON GROUP is active. TRATON GROUP has made such forward-looking statements on the basis of the information available to it and assumptions it believes to be reasonable. The forwardlooking statements and information may involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those forecasts. If any of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements and information. TRATON GROUP will not update the following presentation, particularly not the forward-looking statements. The presentation is valid on the date of publication only.
Certain financial information and financial data included in this presentation are preliminary, unaudited and may be subject to revision. Due to their preliminary nature, statements contained in this presentation should not be unduly relied upon and past events or performance should not be taken as a guarantee or indication of future events or performance. Financial figures expressed in EUR might be translated from different currencies into EUR, using the exchange rate prevailing at the relevant date or for the relevant period that the relevant financial figures relate to.
All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of TRATON SE or any company of TRATON GROUP or any of its competitors are estimates of TRATON GROUP based on data available to TRATON GROUP. Such data are neither comprehensive nor independently verified. Consequently, the data used are not adequate for and the statements based on such data are not meant to be an accurate or proper definition of regional and/or product markets or markets shares of TRATON GROUP and any of the participants in any market.
Unless otherwise stated, all amounts are shown in million of EUR. Please note that rounding differences may arise when adding or subtracting the individual items together. The percentage figures may also be subject to rounding differences because these are calculated based on whole numbers in the year-on-year or quarterly comparisons. Due to different proportions and scaling in graphs, data shown in different graphs are not comparable.
Current Situation
TRATON GROUP Highlights
Segment Industrial Business
Segment Financial Services
Status Update
Jan 20
for 2020
developing economies
Commercial vehicle market forecasts 2020 sharply lowered and come on top of already low expectations; huge bandwith2 displays high uncertainty:
1 IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020 2 Includes estimates from IHS, McKinsey, BCG and others
CURRENT SITUATION GROUP HIGHLIGHTS INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES STATUS UPDATE APPENDIX
(Industrial Business, as of March 31, 2020)
SOLID LIQUIDITY POSITION (Industrial Business, as of April 30, 2020)
Net debt/adjusted EBITDA2: at 0.1x after the end of the DPLTA with Volkswagen AG, €1.4 bn were transferred in February 2020
Strict cash and cost management
Note: Net debt as of March 31, 2020 amounted to €162 mn, mainly due to the cash outflow of €1,404 mn resulting from the end of the domination and profit and loss transfer agreement (DPLTA) with Volkswagen AG for the fiscal year 2019 1 For Industrial Business: calculated as net liquidity/net financial debt divided by book value of equity 2 For Industrial Business: calculated as net liquidity/net financial debt divided by last twelve month adjusted EBITDA (actual quarter + last 3 quarters) 3 Fully available and accessible cash. Additional cash may be located in countries with certain cash transfer limitations, however, is not necessarily "trapped" given such cash is locally used in operations
2020
1 In Q1 2020 and Q1 2019 the operating profit corresponded to the adjusted operating profit 2 Profit from continuing operations -75% to €96 mn 3 Net debt mainly due to the cash outflow of €1,404 mn resulting from the end of the domination and profit and loss transfer agreement (DPLTA) with Volkswagen AG for the fiscal year 2019 Note: Delta Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019
CURRENT SITUATION GROUP HIGHLIGHTS INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES STATUS UPDATE APPENDIX
| Industrial Business (IB) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Q1 20 | Y-o-Y | |
| Incoming orders (units) | 54,161 | -16% |
| Unit sales (units) | 45,990 | -20% |
| Book-to-bill (units) | 1.18 | +5bpt |
| Sales revenue (€mn) | 5,564 | -12% |
| Operating profit (€mn) | 135 | -70% |
| Return on sales (%) | 2.4 | -482bpt |
| Profit after tax (€mn) | 77 | -78% |
| Net cash flow (€mn)1 | -167 | -€1,770 mn |
| Financial Services (FS) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Q1 20 | Y-o-Y | |
| Net portfolio2 (€bn) |
9.4 | +3% |
| Penetration rate (%) | 39 | -93bpt |
| Sales revenue (€mn) | 216 | +6% |
| Operating profit (€mn) | 26 | -21% |
| Profit after tax (€mn) | 18 | -28% |
1 Reported cash flow of €1,602 mn in Q1 2019, adjusted net cash flow of €-376 mn in Q1 2019 before the sale of Power Engineering (€1,978 mn) 2 Reflecting closing balances, as of March 31, 2020 Note: Delta Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019
1 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
CURRENT SITUATION GROUP HIGHLIGHTS INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES STATUS UPDATE APPENDIX
1 Including MAN TGE vans (units in 2019: Q1 3,122 / Q2 4,144 / Q3 2,845 / Q4 4,677, units in 2020: Q1 3,428)
1 Excluding MAN TGE vans 2 EU27+3 region (defined as the EU27 countries with the exception of Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland) 3 Information shown might include estimates or preliminary data; for EU27+3 and Germany data collected from ACEA provisional new registrations figures as at April 24, 2020, trucks ˃ 16t; for Brazil data collected from ANFAVEA trucks ˃ 6t as at April 06, 2020; South America own estimates
May 04, 2020 / Investor Relations / 3M 2020 Results
1 Book-to-bill is defined as the ratio of trucks and buses units ordered to trucks and buses units delivered
• Sales revenue less down than unit sales largely due to better product mix. After-sales grew slightly in Q1 (share at 23%).
1 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
1 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
Note: Figures shown as at Q1 2020; percentage change calculated Y-o-Y, Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019
May 04, 2020 / Investor Relations / 3M 2020 Results
1 Thereof cash outflow of €1,404 mn resulting from the end of the domination and profit and loss transfer agreement (DPLTA) with Volkswagen AG for the fiscal year 2019
CURRENT SITUATION GROUP HIGHLIGHTS INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES STATUS UPDATE APPENDIX
Note: Industrial Business net financial debt / (cash) per FY 2018: € (227) mn, Q1 2019: €(604) mn, H1 2019: €(689) mn, 9M 2019: €(1,207) mn, FY 2019: €(1,500) mn, Q1 2020: €162 mn
1 For Industrial Business: calculated as net liquidity/net financial debt divided by book value of equity 2 For Industrial Business: calculated as net liquidity/net financial debt divided by last twelve month adjusted EBITDA (actual quarter + last 3 quarters)
May 04, 2020 / Investor Relations / 3M 2020 Results
• Operating profit decreased in Q1 2020 by -21% to €26 mn. Portfolio growth positive, while lower margins and higher operating expenses as well as bad debts had negative effects.
1 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
1 Reflecting closing balances; net portfolio defined as gross portfolio less bad debt provisions; growth excl. currency effects 2 Trucks only
21
84 87
Economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic will impact the market development in 2020; a reliable forecast is currently impossible as announced on March 23, 2020 and confirmed on April 21, 2020
Source: Own calculation and estimates based on publicly available sources (ACEA, IHS Markit, ANFAVEA, …)
1 EU27+3 region (defined as the EU27 countries with the exception of Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland), (˃ 6t)
GERMANY
| AND OVER-THE-CYCLE TARGET | Economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic will impact the market and business development in 2020; a reliable forecast is currently impossible as announced on March 23, 2020 and confirmed on April 21, 2020 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2018 | FY 2019 | 2020 Outlook | Over-the-cycle RoS target |
||
| Unit sales (Units; Growth in %) |
233.0k +14% |
242.2k +4% |
n.a. | ||
| Group sales revenue (in €bn; Growth in %) |
€25.9 bn +6% |
€26.9 bn +4% |
n.a. | ||
| Group return onsales 1 (in %; operating profit in €bn) |
5.8% €1.5 bn |
7.0% €1.9 bn |
n.a. | 9% Over-the-cycleRoS |
|
| Cash conversion rate (in %; Industrial Business)2 |
14% | 179% | n.a. |
Note: VGSG operations (sold as of January 2019) included in 2018
1 FY 2018: adjusted RoS 6.4%, adjusted operating profit €1.7 bn; FY 2019: adjusted RoS 7.0%, adjusted operating profit €1.9 bn 2 Calculated as the ratio of net cash flow to profit after tax; in FY 2019 and FY 2018, the cash conversion rate was impacted by a number of nonrecurring factors; FY 2019 reflected for example the proceeds from the disposal of the Power Engineering business
May 04, 2020 / Investor Relations / 3M 2020 Results
May 04, 2020 / Investor Relations / 3M 2020 Results 24
CURRENT SITUATION GROUP HIGHLIGHTS INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES STATUS UPDATE APPENDIX
Rolf Woller Head of Treasury & Investor Relations
+49 89 360 98 335 [email protected]
Philipp Lotz Analysts and Investors, Rating, Debt Capital Markets
+49 89 360 98 283 [email protected]
Marvin Kalberlah Analysts and Investors, Consensus
+49 89 360 98 334 [email protected]
Michael Lankes Annual General Meeting, Events
+49 89 360 98 328 [email protected]
Thomas Paschen Analysts and Investors, Private Investors
+49 89 360 98 474 [email protected]
Helga Würtele Nordic Analysts and Investors, Corporate Responsibility
+49 151 163 58 157 [email protected]
| DATE | EVENT / PUBLICATION OF |
|---|---|
May 4, 2020 3M 2020 Quarterly Statement
July 31, 2020 Half-Yearly Financial Report 2020
November 2, 2020 9M 2020 Quarterly Statement
TRATON SE Dachauer Str. 641 80995 Munich www.traton.com http://ir.traton.com
| ISIN (International Securities Identification Number) | DE000TRAT0N7 |
|---|---|
| WKN (German Security Identification number) | TRAT0N |
| Common code | 196390065 |
| Stock exchange | Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse) & Nasdaq Stockholm (börsen) |
| Market segment | Regulated market (Prime Standard) of Frankfurt Stock Exchange & Large Cap segment of Nasdaq Stockholm |
| Bloomberg ticker | 8TRA GY / 8TRA SS |
| Reuters ticker | 8TRA.DE / 8TRA.ST |
| Shares outstanding | 500.000.000 |
| Type of share | Bearer shares / common shares |
Return on sales1 (%) Growth Y-o-Y (%)
-67%
| 161 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | |||
| Q1 20 | H1 20 | 9M 20 | FY 20 |
1 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
1 Excluding MAN TGE vans 2 In connection with the exit of United Kingdom on January 31, 2020, the region "EU28+2" has been referred to as region "EU27+3" since 2020 (defined as the EU27 countries with the exception of Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland)
May 04, 2020 / Investor Relations / 3M 2020 Results
Q2 19 Q1 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q4 19 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q3 19 Q1 20 Q4 20
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
1 Book-to-bill is defined as the ratio of trucks and bus units ordered to trucks and bus units delivered 2 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
Incoming orders (k units) 29.9 25.0 20.8 24.9 24.1 -19%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
1 Book-to-bill is defined as the ratio of trucks and bus units ordered to trucks and bus units delivered 2 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
Incoming orders (k units)
9.5 10.4 8.9 11.1 10.7 +7%
Q1 19 Q3 20 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q4 20
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q2 20 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
1 Book-to-bill is defined as the ratio of trucks and bus units ordered to trucks and bus units delivered 2 Q2 2019 includes an adjustment of (€13 mn) from the reversal of a restructuring provision 3 Calculated as the ratio of operating profit to sales revenue
| € million | 3M 2020 | 3M 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue | 5,679 | 6,413 |
| Cost of sales | $-4,659$ | $-5,109$ |
| Gross profit | 1,020 | 1,304 |
| Distribution expenses | $-594$ | $-580$ |
| Administrative expenses | $-238$ | $-259$ |
| Net impairment losses on financial assets | $-27$ | $-11$ |
| Other operating income | 373 | 185 |
| Other operating expenses | $-373$ | $-150$ |
| Operating profit | 161 | 490 |
| Share of profits and losses of equity-method investments | 23 | 77 |
| Interest income | 18 | 20 |
| Interest expense | $-49$ | $-70$ |
| Other financial result | $-22$ | $-9$ |
| Financial result | $-30$ | 17 |
| Profit before tax | 131 | 507 |
| Income taxes | $-35$ | $-122$ |
| current | $-86$ | $-119$ |
| deferred | 51 | $-3$ |
| Profit from continuing operations, net of tax | 96 | 385 |
| Loss from discontinued operations, net of tax | $-2$ | |
| Profit after tax | 96 | 383 |
| of which attributable to shareholders of TRATON SE | 96 | 378 |
| of which attributable to noncontrolling interests | $\mathbf{I}$ | 5 |
| Earnings per share from continuing operations in € (diluted/basic) | 0.19 | 0.76 |
| Earnings per share from continuing and discontinued operations in € (diluted/basic) | 0.19 | 0.76 |
| € million | 03/31/2020 | 12/31/2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Noncurrent assets | ||
| Intangible assets | 6.372 | 6,755 |
| Property, plant, and equipment | 6,530 | 6,789 |
| Assets leased out | 6,858 | 7.119 |
| Equity-method investments | 1,406 | 1,365 |
| Other equity investments | 35 | 34 |
| Noncurrent income tax receivables | 30 | 44 |
| Deferred tax assets | 943 | 970 |
| Noncurrent financial services receivables | 4,587 | 4,871 |
| Other noncurrent financial assets | 316 | 130 |
| Other noncurrent receivables | 370 | 384 |
| 27,447 | 28,461 | |
| Current assets | ||
| Inventories | 4.996 | 4,943 |
| Trade receivables | 1,852 | 2,144 |
| Current income tax receivables | 106 | 124 |
| Current financial services receivables | 2,906 | 3,120 |
| Other current financial assets | 542 | 338 |
| Other current receivables | 902 | 963 |
| Marketable securities and investment deposits | 1,783 | 3,178 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,614 | 1,913 |
| 14,701 | 16,722 | |
| Total assets | 42,148 | 45,183 |
| € million | 03/31/2020 | 12/31/2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity | ||
| Subscribed capital | 500 | 500 |
| Capital reserves | 20.275 | 20,241 |
| Retained earnings | $-4.055$ | $-4,150$ |
| Accumulated other comprehensive income | $-3,328$ | $-2,727$ |
| Equity attributable to shareholders of TRATON SE | 13,393 | 13,865 |
| Noncontrolling interests | 260 | 270 |
| 13,653 | 14,134 | |
| Noncurrent liabilities | ||
| Noncurrent financial liabilities | 6,018 | 5,966 |
| Provisions for pensions and other post-employment benefits | 1,520 | 1,769 |
| Noncurrent income tax payables | $\overline{2}$ | 125 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 757 | 787 |
| Noncurrent income tax provisions | 15 | 17 |
| Other noncurrent provisions | 1,139 | 1,225 |
| Other noncurrent financial liabilities | 2,567 | 2,604 |
| Other noncurrent liabilities | 1.950 | 2,034 |
| 13,967 | 14,527 | |
| Current liabilities | ||
| Current financial liabilities | 5,959 | 6,531 |
| Trade payables | 2.470 | 2,472 |
| Current income tax payables | 137 | 153 |
| Current income tax provisions | 35 | 34 |
| Other current provisions | 815 | 869 |
| Other current financial liabilities | 1,542 | 2.837 |
| Other current liabilities | 3,569 | 3,626 |
| 14,528 | 16,522 | |
| Total equity and liabilities | 42,148 | 45,183 |
| € million | 3M 2020 | 3M 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents as of January 1 | 1.913 | 2,997 |
| Profit before tax | 131 | 507 |
| Income taxes paid | $-201$ | $-132$ |
| Depreciation and amortization of, and impairment losses on, intangible assets, property, plant, and equipment, and investment property | 221 | 199 |
| Amortization of, and impairment losses on, capitalized development costs 1 | 57 | 45 |
| Impairment losses on equity investments 1 | л | $\Omega$ |
| Depreciation of products leased out 1 | 291 | 286 |
| Change in pension obligations | $-29$ | $-21$ |
| Profit/loss on disposal of noncurrent assets and equity investments | 4 | -4 |
| Share of the result of equity-method investments | $-23$ | $-77$ |
| Other noncash income/expense | 98 | 7 |
| Change in inventories | $-365$ | $-638$ |
| Change in receivables (excl. financial services) | 103 | $-90$ |
| Change in liabilities (excl. financial liabilities) | 160 | 192 |
| Change in provisions | $-39$ | $-28$ |
| Change in products leased out | $-183$ | $-362$ |
| Change in financial services receivables | 18 | $-271$ |
| Net cash provided by/used in operating activities | 242 | $-385$ |
| Capital expenditures in intangible assets (excl. capitalized development costs) and in property, plant, and equipment | $-219$ | $-156$ |
| Additions to capitalized development costs | $-92$ | $-110$ |
| Capital expenditures to acquire other investees | -4 | $-5$ |
| Proceeds from the disposal of subsidiaries | 1.978 | |
| Proceeds from the disposal of intangible assets, property, plant, and equipment, and investment property | 5 | 12 |
| Change in marketable securities and investment deposits | 1,390 | $-1.004$ |
| Change in loans | 4 | 9 |
| Net cash provided by investing activities | 1,084 | 724 |
| Net cash provided by/used in operating activities | 242 | $-385$ |
|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditures in intangible assets (excl. capitalized development costs) and in property, plant, and equipment | $-219$ | $-156$ |
| Additions to capitalized development costs | $-92$ | $-110$ |
| Capital expenditures to acquire other investees | $-4$ | $-5$ |
| Proceeds from the disposal of subsidiaries | 1,978 | |
| Proceeds from the disposal of intangible assets, property, plant, and equipment, and investment property | 5 | 12 |
| Change in marketable securities and investment deposits | 1,390 | $-1,004$ |
| Change in loans | 4 | 9 |
| Net cash provided by investing activities | 1,084 | 724 |
| Profit transfer to/loss absorption by Volkswagen AG | $-1,404$ | 4,161 |
| Distribution of retained earnings | $-3,250$ | |
| Noncontrolling interest shareholders of MAN SE: compensation payments and acquisition of shares tendered | $-1,063$ | |
| Proceeds from the issuance of bonds | 1,050 | 1,119 |
| Repayment of bonds | $-793$ | $-299$ |
| Change in miscellaneous financial liabilities | $-335$ | $-1.129$ |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | $-52$ | $-32$ |
| Net cash used in financing activities | $-1,533$ | $-494$ |
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents | $-92$ | 12 |
| Change in cash and cash equivalents | $-299$ | $-143$ |
| Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31 | 1,614 | 2.854 |
| Net of impairment reversals |
| TRATON GROUP | Industrial Business | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $\epsilon$ million | 03/31/2020 | 12/31/2019 03/31/2020 | 12/31/2019 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1.614 | 1.913 | 1,551 | 1,853 |
| Marketable securities, investment deposits, and loans to affiliated |
||||
| companies | 1.793 | 3,195 | 1.794 | 3,288 |
| Gross liquidity | 3,407 | 5,108 | 3,345 | 5,141 |
| Total third-party borrowings | $-11,977$ | $-12,497$ | $-3,507$ | -3,641 |
| Net liquidity/net financial debt | $-8.569$ | $-7.390$ | $-162$ | 1.500 |
| Adjustments (€mn) |
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 3M 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPERATING PROFIT | 727 | 1,512 | 1,513 | 1,884 | 161 |
| Expense for antitrust proceedings (Scania) |
403 | ||||
| Release of restructuring provisions at MAN Truck & Bus |
-50 | ||||
| Expenses in relation to India market exit at MAN Truck & Bus |
137 | ||||
| Recognition and release of restructuring provisions at VWCO | 58 | -13 | |||
| OPERATING PROFIT (ADJUSTED) | 1,188 | 1,462 | 1,650 | 1,871 | 161 |
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