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Terna — Investor Presentation 2017
Feb 20, 2017
4300_rns_2017-02-20_d0d33629-6dc2-4c14-aa42-219a7ab0952e.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Investor Relations 1
Macro Trend
COP22 Marrakech Climate Change Conference - November 2016 Implementation of Paris Agreement underway
Multilateral cooperation on climate change continues
United Nations 17 Goals to Transform Our World
Mobilize efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Agenda by 2030
Closing the loop EU action plan for Circular Economy
"Closing the loop" of product lifecycles through greater recycling and re-use. Bring benefits for both environment and economy
Guidelines and Targets of Energy Transition
European Guidelines
Decarbonisation
Market Efficiency Security of Supply
…to ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy
TARGETS
| 2020 EU 20-20-20 |
2030 The energy bridge |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Reduction of GHGs emissions | - 20% |
13%1 - |
- 40% |
| Consumption covered by RES2 | ≥20% | ≥17% | 27% |
| Energy Efficiency (vs BAU scenario) | + 20% | + 20% | +30%3 |
| Interconnection vs. installed capacity | ≥ 10%4 | ≥ 10%4 | ≥ 15%5 |
1. Target for Italy related to Effort Sharing Decision
2. Share of renewable energy in percentage of gross final energy consumption (transport + electricity + heating & cooling)
5. Single Member State target under study by EC
3. Proposal EC Winter Energy Package (target previously set at 27%)
Our contribution to the Energy Transition
Differentiating through a shared innovation process
CLUSTERS PARTNERSHIPS
Transmission Technologies Electric Power System Operation Grid & Markets Development Smart Grids (i.e. Smart Islands) Business Improvement
Start Up & SMEs Academy & research centers Energy sector & Infrastructures Supply chain
demonstration cases – interconnection - interdisciplinarity
The Energy Transition is Accelerating
NEW TRENDS TO INCREASE CAPEX REQUIREMENTS
At the lowest cost for the System with high quality standards
RES growing & Thermal decreasing R I
Understanding RES Integration
Investor Relations 7 1. RES production / total demand
(RES = Wind, PV, Hydro, Geothermal and Biomass) 2. Residual load = Demand minus renewable production
REShuffling Energy Map
Need for RES integration and new grid reinforcements on the backbone for South-North energy flow Not homogeneous renewables distribution within the Country (concentrated in the South)
Avoiding Adequacy and Reliability Issues
| r o t a r e p O n o si s mi s n a Tr |
Interconnections and Private Interconnectors |
In the Plan: Italy-France, Italy-Montenegro, SACOI3 (Sardinia Corsica- Italy) and Italy-Austria Under Study: Italy-Switzerland, Italy-Tunisia and Italy-Slovenia |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Reinforcements |
Transmission capacity increase on a zonal and local basis |
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| Replacements | Mitigation of risks of service interruption and increase eco-sustainability Supporting maintenance through digitalization |
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| r o t a r e p O m e st y S |
Capacity market |
premium Selected counterparties to receive a (€/MW-year) for their capacity obligations Terna will run the Capacity Market auctions (first expected by YE2017) |
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| Digital Grid solutions |
Demand response, just-in-time metering and storage solutions to increase security of supply |
A Stronger Grid for Energy Transition
Benefits for the System to drive Capex Plan
Maximising
shareholders' remuneration
Reconfirming Mission and Strategy – Executing the Plan
Growth in Domestic Regulated to facilitate Energy Transition and leverage on core expertise to seize opportunities in Non Regulated & International
Priority List
Energy Transition Ongoing...
Enabling Energy Transition
Flexible Toolkit
2017-2021 Confirming Safe Organic Growth
| REGULATED Capex Driven |
NON – REG Capital Light |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yearly average Capex ~+30% vs Old Plan |
Yearly average EBITDA ~+40% vs Old Plan |
||
| DOMESTIC | ~4.0 Capex in 5 years €bn CAGR 2015-2021 ~2% RAB1 up to ~15.6 €bn |
~3502 EBITDA €mn cumulated in 5 years O&M TLC |
|
| INTERNATIONAL | Up to ~250 max equity allocation €mn |
INTER EPC CONNECTORS |
|
| EBITDA CAGR ~2% | Longer Visibility With |
||
| EPS CAGR ~3% |
Investor Relations 14 2. Domestic Non-Reg excluding Tamini
Regulated Capex Plan 2017-2021
Average annual investing ~+30% vs Old Plan
Investor Relations 15 2. o/w ∼10% eligible for incentives, based on current regulation
A Solid +2% RAB CAGR within the plan period
Accommodating the Transition - Regulation
- Allowed Return (WACC) confirmed up to 2021 with potential upside on interim review (end 2018)
- New Incentives based on outputs for the system (i.e. capacity, quality of service)
- Totex Regime: potential outperformance vs outputs, targets and baseline (Opex+Capex)
A new regulation for an evolving system
Non Regulated Activities and International
Exploiting our core capabilities and expanding regulated activities to generate incremental growth
Average ~60% Margin Old Plan ~50%
Limited capital allocation focused on Transmission
Key Assumptions – Regulated Business
| Regulatory | 2017 Total Grid Fee* 1.91€bn @ RAB growth driven by: - Capex (4€bn) - Inflation at 0.7% on average WACC at 5.3% also after 2019 interim review |
|---|---|
| Blended return at 6.3% (incentivized RAB at 40%) Totex Output-based: potential upsides not included and Inflation on allowed Opex at 0.5% on average |
|
| D&A | Extension to 45yrs in useful life of HV lines |
| Cost of Debt | Average 2017-2021 at 1.5% |
Key Assumptions - Non Regulated & International
| DOMESTIC NON REGULATED |
KEY ASSUMPTIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ht g |
EPC | 850MW Interconnectors: + cross border capacity new opportunities RHV Grid |
|
| Li al pit |
O&M | HV lines/substations PV initiatives |
|
| a C |
TLC | housing services Long Term contracts for Broadband New opportunities from Italian initiatives |
|
| INTERNATIONAL | KEY ASSUMPTIONS | ||
| n o ti a c o All |
Brazil | 2 BOOT concessions for >500km ~180 Capex at €mn P&L contribution starting from 2019 |
|
| al pit a C |
Uruguay | BOT concession for >200km ~70 Capex at €mn P&L contribution starting from 2020 (on PBT) |
Group Targets – P&L
Growth at Low Risk
BOTTOM LINE
EPS CAGR ∼3% with increased visibility
Group Targets – Cash Flow
ANNUAL EVOLUTION CUMULATED 2017-2021
Group Targets – Net Debt
Preliminary 2016 and Guidance 2017
Reconfirming Dividend Policy
For an extended period
Consistent and Sustainable
Terna has a major role in the Energy Transition whilst remaining:
Annexes
2017 Total Grid Fee update*
Main Projects
New Cost Benefits Analysis
INVESTMENTS SELECTION FOR SYSTEM BENEFITS MAXIMISATION
New Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA 2.01 ) aligned with ENTSO-E criteria and methodology
To be applied to projects >15€mn 2
Introduction of environmental and social KPIs
Terna new capex plan already compliant with the new CBA 2.0 methodology
| Main KPIs | CBA 1.0 | CBA 2.0 |
|---|---|---|
| Quality of service and security | ||
| Day-ahead market benefits | ||
| Renewables integration | ||
| Dispatching market benefits | ||
| Grid resilience and flexibility | ||
| Environmental and social KPI | ||
Investor Relations 30 1. AEEGSI resolution 627/2016
2. 25€mn for 2017 National Development Plan projects
Summary Targets Financial KPIs
- Financial structure will remain solid within the plan
- Main Financial KPIs on a sustainable level, well below the main rating agency thresholds
Investor Relations 31 1. Of which 0.77 reimbursed in February 2017 2. Government Related Entity
2017 National Development Plan
Challenges Decarbonisation Market Efficiency Security of Supply Renewables Integration Quality of Service Interconnections Bottlenecks Resolution Connections to NG 7.8€bn NDP 2017 26% 25% 23% 21% 6% 2.5€bn in 2017-2021 5.3€bn post 2021 ITA-FRA ITA-MNE ITA-AUS mainly SACOI3 + other local and zonal congestions Existing and new plants
Benefits for the Electricity System (Categories)
2017-2021 Replacement and Defense Capex Plan
Disclaimer
THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY TERNA S.P.A. (THE "COMPANY") FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE DESCRIBED HEREIN. IN NO CASE MAY IT BE INTERPRETED AS AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO SELL OR PURCHASE ANY SECURITY ISSUED BY THE COMPANY OR ITS SUBSIDIARIES.
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