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Terna Investor Presentation 2017

Feb 20, 2017

4300_rns_2017-02-20_0d35c653-e03b-46a5-a1eb-adacb60d3fd2.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Investor Relations 1

Macro Trend

COP22 Marrakech Climate Change Conference - November 2016 Implementation of Paris Agreement underway

Multilateral cooperation on climate change continues

United Nations 17 Goals to Transform Our World

Mobilize efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Agenda by 2030

Closing the loop EU action plan for Circular Economy

"Closing the loop" of product lifecycles through greater recycling and re-use. Bring benefits for both environment and economy

Guidelines and Targets of Energy Transition

European Guidelines

Decarbonisation

Market Efficiency Security of Supply

…to ensure that Europe has secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy

TARGETS

2020
EU 20-20-20
2030
The energy bridge
Reduction of GHGs emissions -
20%
13%1
-
-
40%
Consumption covered by RES2 ≥20% ≥17% 27%
Energy Efficiency (vs BAU scenario) + 20% + 20% +30%3
Interconnection vs. installed capacity ≥ 10%4 ≥ 10%4 ≥ 15%5

1. Target for Italy related to Effort Sharing Decision

2. Share of renewable energy in percentage of gross final energy consumption (transport + electricity + heating & cooling)

5. Single Member State target under study by EC

3. Proposal EC Winter Energy Package (target previously set at 27%)

Our contribution to the Energy Transition

Differentiating through a shared innovation process

CLUSTERS PARTNERSHIPS

Transmission Technologies Electric Power System Operation Grid & Markets Development Smart Grids (i.e. Smart Islands) Business Improvement

Start Up & SMEs Academy & research centers Energy sector & Infrastructures Supply chain

demonstration cases – interconnection - interdisciplinarity

The Energy Transition is Accelerating

NEW TRENDS TO INCREASE CAPEX REQUIREMENTS

At the lowest cost for the System with high quality standards

RES growing & Thermal decreasing R I

Understanding RES Integration

Investor Relations 7 1. RES production / total demand

(RES = Wind, PV, Hydro, Geothermal and Biomass) 2. Residual load = Demand minus renewable production

REShuffling Energy Map

Need for RES integration and new grid reinforcements on the backbone for South-North energy flow Not homogeneous renewables distribution within the Country (concentrated in the South)

Avoiding Adequacy and Reliability Issues

r
o
t
a
r
e
p
O
n
o
si
s
mi
s
n
a
Tr
Interconnections
and Private
Interconnectors
In
the
Plan:
Italy-France,
Italy-Montenegro,
SACOI3
(Sardinia
Corsica-
Italy)
and
Italy-Austria
Under
Study:
Italy-Switzerland,
Italy-Tunisia
and
Italy-Slovenia
Internal
Reinforcements
Transmission
capacity
increase
on
a
zonal
and
local
basis
Replacements Mitigation
of
risks
of
service
interruption
and
increase
eco-sustainability
Supporting
maintenance
through
digitalization
r
o
t
a
r
e
p
O
m
e
st
y
S
Capacity
market
premium
Selected
counterparties
to
receive
a
(€/MW-year)
for
their
capacity
obligations
Terna
will
run
the
Capacity
Market
auctions
(first
expected
by
YE2017)
Digital Grid
solutions
Demand
response,
just-in-time
metering
and
storage
solutions
to
increase
security
of
supply

A Stronger Grid for Energy Transition

Benefits for the System to drive Capex Plan

Maximising

shareholders' remuneration

Reconfirming Mission and Strategy – Executing the Plan

Growth in Domestic Regulated to facilitate Energy Transition and leverage on core expertise to seize opportunities in Non Regulated & International

Priority List

Energy Transition Ongoing...

Enabling Energy Transition

Flexible Toolkit

2017-2021 Confirming Safe Organic Growth

REGULATED
Capex
Driven
NON –
REG
Capital Light
Yearly average Capex
~+30% vs
Old Plan
Yearly average EBITDA
~+40% vs
Old Plan
DOMESTIC ~4.0
Capex
in 5 years
€bn
CAGR 2015-2021 ~2%
RAB1
up to ~15.6
€bn
~3502
EBITDA
€mn
cumulated in 5 years
O&M
TLC
INTERNATIONAL Up to ~250
max equity allocation
€mn
INTER
EPC
CONNECTORS
EBITDA CAGR ~2% Longer Visibility
With
EPS CAGR ~3%

Investor Relations 14 2. Domestic Non-Reg excluding Tamini

Regulated Capex Plan 2017-2021

Average annual investing ~+30% vs Old Plan

Investor Relations 15 2. o/w10% eligible for incentives, based on current regulation

A Solid +2% RAB CAGR within the plan period

Accommodating the Transition - Regulation

  • Allowed Return (WACC) confirmed up to 2021 with potential upside on interim review (end 2018)
  • New Incentives based on outputs for the system (i.e. capacity, quality of service)
  • Totex Regime: potential outperformance vs outputs, targets and baseline (Opex+Capex)

A new regulation for an evolving system

Non Regulated Activities and International

Exploiting our core capabilities and expanding regulated activities to generate incremental growth

Average ~60% Margin Old Plan ~50%

Limited capital allocation focused on Transmission

Key Assumptions – Regulated Business

Regulatory 2017 Total Grid Fee*
1.91€bn
@
RAB growth driven by:
-
Capex (4€bn)
-
Inflation at 0.7% on average
WACC
at 5.3% also after 2019 interim review
Blended return at 6.3% (incentivized RAB at 40%)
Totex
Output-based: potential upsides not included
and
Inflation on allowed Opex
at 0.5% on average
D&A Extension to 45yrs in
useful life of HV lines
Cost of Debt Average 2017-2021 at 1.5%

Key Assumptions - Non Regulated & International

DOMESTIC
NON REGULATED
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
ht
g
EPC 850MW

Interconnectors:
+
cross
border
capacity
new
opportunities

RHV
Grid
Li
al
pit
O&M HV
lines/substations

PV

initiatives
a
C
TLC housing
services

Long
Term
contracts
for
Broadband

New
opportunities
from
Italian
initiatives
INTERNATIONAL KEY ASSUMPTIONS
n
o
ti
a
c
o
All
Brazil
2
BOOT
concessions
for
>500km
~180

Capex
at
€mn

P&L
contribution
starting
from
2019
al
pit
a
C
Uruguay
BOT
concession
for
>200km
~70

Capex
at
€mn

P&L
contribution
starting
from
2020
(on
PBT)

Group Targets – P&L

Growth at Low Risk

BOTTOM LINE

EPS CAGR ∼3% with increased visibility

Group Targets – Cash Flow

ANNUAL EVOLUTION CUMULATED 2017-2021

Group Targets – Net Debt

Preliminary 2016 and Guidance 2017

Reconfirming Dividend Policy

For an extended period

Consistent and Sustainable

Terna has a major role in the Energy Transition whilst remaining:

Annexes

2017 Total Grid Fee update*

Main Projects

New Cost Benefits Analysis

INVESTMENTS SELECTION FOR SYSTEM BENEFITS MAXIMISATION

New Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA 2.01 ) aligned with ENTSO-E criteria and methodology

To be applied to projects >15€mn 2

Introduction of environmental and social KPIs

Terna new capex plan already compliant with the new CBA 2.0 methodology

Main KPIs CBA 1.0 CBA 2.0
Quality of service and security
Day-ahead market benefits
Renewables integration
Dispatching market benefits
Grid resilience and flexibility
Environmental and social KPI

Investor Relations 30 1. AEEGSI resolution 627/2016

2. 25€mn for 2017 National Development Plan projects

Summary Targets Financial KPIs

  • Financial structure will remain solid within the plan
  • Main Financial KPIs on a sustainable level, well below the main rating agency thresholds

Investor Relations 31 1. Of which 0.77 reimbursed in February 2017 2. Government Related Entity

2017 National Development Plan

Challenges Decarbonisation Market Efficiency Security of Supply Renewables Integration Quality of Service Interconnections Bottlenecks Resolution Connections to NG 7.8€bn NDP 2017 26% 25% 23% 21% 6% 2.5€bn in 2017-2021 5.3€bn post 2021 ITA-FRA ITA-MNE ITA-AUS mainly SACOI3 + other local and zonal congestions Existing and new plants

Benefits for the Electricity System (Categories)

2017-2021 Replacement and Defense Capex Plan

Disclaimer

THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY TERNA S.P.A. (THE "COMPANY") FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE DESCRIBED HEREIN. IN NO CASE MAY IT BE INTERPRETED AS AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO SELL OR PURCHASE ANY SECURITY ISSUED BY THE COMPANY OR ITS SUBSIDIARIES.

THE CONTENT OF THIS DOCUMENT HAS A MERELY INFORMATIVE AND PROVISIONAL NATURE AND THE STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN HAVE NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED. NEITHER THE COMPANY NOR ANY OF ITS REPRESENTATIVES SHALL ACCEPT ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (WHETHER IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY FROM THE USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY MATERIAL DISCUSSED DURING THE PRESENTATION.

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, TO ANY OTHER PERSON. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN AND OTHER MATERIAL DISCUSSED AT THE CONFERENCE CALL MAY INCLUDE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE NOT HISTORICAL FACTS, INCLUDING STATEMENTS ABOUT THE COMPANY'S BELIEFS AND EXPECTATIONS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT PLANS, ESTIMATES, PROJECTIONS AND PROJECTS, AND CANNOT BE INTERPRETED AS A PROMISE OR GUARANTEE OF WHATSOEVER NATURE.

HOWEVER, FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE INHERENT RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES AND ARE CURRENT ONLY AT THE DATE THEY ARE MADE. WE CAUTION YOU THAT A NUMBER OF FACTORS COULD CAUSE THE COMPANY'S ACTUAL RESULTS AND PROVISIONS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE CONTAINED IN ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT. SUCH FACTORS INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: TRENDS IN COMPANY'S BUSINESS, ITS ABILITY TO IMPLEMENT COST-CUTTING PLANS, CHANGES IN THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION OF THE LAW AND REGULATION, ITS ABILITY TO SUCCESSFULLY DIVERSIFY AND THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF FUTURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD NOT PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. TERNA DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT ANY CHANGES IN TERNA'S EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANY CHANGES IN EVENTS.

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THE SORGENTE-RIZZICONI PROJECT INTERCONNECTION IS CO-FINANCED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION'S EUROPEAN ENERGY PROGRAMME FOR RECOVERY PROGRAMME. THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THIS PUBLICATION LIES WITH THE AUTHOR. THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NO RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY USE THAT MAY BE MADE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN.

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