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Telenor ASA — Investor Presentation 2017
May 4, 2017
3773_rns_2017-05-04_af597a45-bf1f-47e5-8a49-deab6644015e.pdf
Investor Presentation
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TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER Sigve Brekke, CEO
DISCLAIMER
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated ('relevant persons'). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in any company within the Telenor Group. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Telenor Group's growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives. In particular, the slide "Outlook for 2017 (…)" contains forward-looking statements regarding the Telenor Group's expectations. All statements regarding the future are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.
HIGHLIGHTS FIRST QUARTER 2017
OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
- Data monetization in Emerging Asia
- Solid fibre momentum in Norway and Sweden
- Strong postpaid, while working to stabilize prepaid in Thailand and Malaysia
- Progress on strategic agenda
KEY FINANCIALS
- Revenues of NOK 30.5 bn (0%)
- EBITDA of NOK 11.5 bn (+3%)
- Net income of NOK 4.2 bn
- Free cash flow of NOK 2.2 bn
REVAMPED MOBILE OFFERINGS AND FIBRE GROWTH IN NORWAY
MOBILE
- Successful launch of new offerings in March, targeting the youth segment
- Stable revenues excluding effect from launch of data rollover
FIXED
- Good momentum on fibre rollout, with 12k new fibre connections and 5% broadband ARPU growth
- 6% growth in Internet and TV revenues, offsetting decline on legacy revenues
EBITDA
4
- EBITDA impacted negatively by NOK 85 m rollover effect
- Stable opex YoY, cost programme progressing as planned
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Organic revenue growth.
Mobile ARPU development (NOK)
SOLID REVENUE AND EBITDA GROWTH IN SWEDEN AND DENMARK
SWEDEN
- 24k net mobile subscriber growth and 19k new fibre connections
- 5% organic growth in fixed revenues, driven by fibre
- Stable opex and 11% organic growth in EBITDA
DENMARK
- 9k net mobile subscriber growth in continued highly competitive environment
- Revenue growth driven by strong handset sale
- Solid EBITDA improvement from 15% decline in opex
Denmark - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
Organic revenue growth.
STEADY PERFORMANCE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
HUNGARY
- Stable organic subscription and traffic revenues
- 3% organic growth in EBITDA, driven by opex reduction
BULGARIA
- 1% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth
- Focus on 4G and pre to post migration
- Stable opex and 3% organic growth in EBITDA
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
- Stable organic subscription and traffic revenues
- 1% organic growth in EBITDA, supported by opex decline
Bulgaria - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
Organic revenue growth
SOLID POSTPAID TRENDS AND CONTINUED PREPAID COMPETITION IN DEVELOPED ASIA
THAILAND (DTAC)
- Slight reduction in subscription and traffic revenues, while total revenues impacted by lower handset sales
- 20% organic growth in postpaid revenues and successful launch of speed based price plans
- Network densification continues with improvement in network perception
MALAYSIA (DIGI)
- Intense prepaid competition offsetting strong postpaid performance
- 45% EBITDA margin supported by stringent cost control
- 4G network reaching 85% population coverage
Malaysia - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
DATA MONETIZATION DRIVING REVENUE GROWTH AND MARGINS IN EMERGING ASIA
BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE)
- 11% organic revenue growth, supported by 6% ARPU growth
- 58% EBITDA margin and 17% organic growth in EBITDA
PAKISTAN
- 10% organic revenue growth
- 49% EBITDA margin and 25% organic growth in EBITDA
MYANMAR
8
- 13% organic revenue growth and stable ARPU vs Q4 16
- Successful re-registration of subscriber base
- 43% EBITDA margin and 16% organic growth in EBITDA
Pakistan - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
TAKING STEPS TOWARDS SIMPLIFICATION
- India exit announced in February
- Cluster organization launched
- Further sell-down in VEON
- Continue to simplify portfolio - divested Startsiden
- Efficiency efforts continues
TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER Jørgen C. Arentz Rostrup, CFO
HIGHLIGHTS FIRST QUARTER 2017
OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
- Data monetization in Emerging Asia
- Solid fibre momentum in Norway and Sweden
- Strong postpaid, while working to stabilize prepaid in Thailand and Malaysia
- Progress on strategic agenda
KEY FINANCIALS
- Revenues of NOK 30.5 bn (0%)
- EBITDA of NOK 11.5 bn (+3%)
- Net income of NOK 4.2 bn
- Free cash flow of NOK 2.2 bn
STABLE ORGANIC REVENUES
Q1 2017
- Negative currency effects of NOK 1.1 bn from strengthening of NOK against most functional currencies
-
1% organic revenue growth adjusted for one-time item in Broadcast in Q1 2016
-
Continued double-digit organic growth in emerging Asia
- Lower handset sales in Thailand
- Positive one time effect of NOK 0.2 bn in Broadcast in Q1 2016
FOCUS ON TURNING THE OPEX TREND IN 2017
- 3% yoy reported opex reduction vs stable organic development
- Workforce reductions of around 600 FTEs during Q1
• Increased marcom efficiency and lower regulatory cost
12 307
• +1 pp EBIDTA margin uplift from improved gross margin
11 629 11 381
Q1 2017
• 5% organic EBITDA growth adjusted for one-time effects in Broadcast in Q1 2016
14 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals.
38% EBITDA MARGIN AND 3% ORGANIC EBITDA GROWTH
11 462
11 629 11 462 219 179 -191 -271 -104 Q1 16 Bangladesh Pakistan Norway Broadcast Others Q1 17
- Solid EBITDA contribution from Emerging Asia
- YoY development in Norway and Broadcast impacted by data rollover and one-time effects in Q1 2016
EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA (NOK m) development
CAPEX OF NOK 4.5 BILLION AND CAPEX/SALES OF 15%
• Total capex coming down following high network investments in 2016
- 4G and fibre investments in Norway
- Network densification programme in Thailand
NET INCOME OF NOK 4.2 BILLION
| NOK m | Q1 2016 | Q1 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 31 494 | 30 458 | |
| EBITDA before other items | 11 629 | 11 462 | |
| Other items | -140 | -178 | • Workforce reductions (-213m) |
| EBITDA | 11 490 | 11 283 | • Gain on disposal of Startsiden |
| Depreciation and amortisation | -4 890 | -5 109 | (+65m) |
| Operating profit | 6 599 | 6 175 | |
| Associated companies | 4 175 | 1 117 | • Reversal VEON impairment incl. |
| Net financials | -937 | -879 | share of Q4 net income |
| Taxes | -1 601 | -1 670 | • Loss on derivative (exchangeable |
| Profit from continuing operations | 8 236 | 4 742 | bond) of NOK 111m |
| Profit (loss) from discontinued operations | -3 149 | 120 | • India classified as discontinued |
| Net income - non-controlling interests |
830 | 694 | operation. Including impairment of NOK 2.3 bn in Q1 2016 |
| Net income - Telenor equity holders |
4 256 | 4 168 | |
| Earnings per share (NOK) | 2.83 | 2.78 |
FREE CASH FLOW OF NOK 2.2 BILLION
Net cash flow from operating activities (NOK m) Net cash flow from investing activities (NOK m)
STABLE NET DEBT OF NOK 54 BN AND NET DEBT/EBITDA OF 1.2x
| Net debt 31 Dec 2016 | 54.4 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | (11.3) |
| Income taxes paid | 1.1 |
| Net interest paid | 0.5 |
| Capex paid | 5.3 |
| Dividends paid | 0.6 |
| Currency effects | 1.2 |
| Changes in working capital and other | 1.9 |
| Net change during Q1 17 | (0.7) |
| Net debt 31 Mar 2017 | 53.7 |
FURTHER SELL-DOWN IN VEON IN APRIL
- 70 million VEON ADSs sold on 7 April through a bookbuilding process
- Net proceeds of UDS 259 million (around NOK 2.2 billion) to be included in Telenor's cash flow statement Q2 2017
- Remaining 19.7% shareholding in VEON, including the VEON ADSs that are underlying Telenor's USD 1 billion, 3-year exchangeable bond
- Following the transaction, VEON will no longer be treated as an associated company in Telenor's financial reporting
- All previously recognized currency translation differences, amounting to an accounting loss of NOK 7.5 billion will be reclassified to the income statement. The effect will be recognized Q2 2017.
OUTLOOK FOR 2017 ADJUSTED TO REFLECT CURRENT GROUP STRUCTURE EXCL. INDIA
| 2017 | YTD | 2016 ex. India | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth | 1-2% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| EBITDA margin | Around 37% | 37.6% | 36.7% |
| Capex/sales ratio | 15-16% | 14.9% | 17.4% |
Organic revenue growth in fixed currency, adj. for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. spectrum and licence fees.
Excluding India from the Group structure has approx. 1 pp positive effect on the Group's EBITDA margin. The impact on revenue growth and capex/sales is marginal.
HIGHLIGHTS FIRST QUARTER 2017
OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
- Data monetization in Emerging Asia
- Solid fibre momentum in Norway and Sweden
- Strong postpaid, while working to stabilize prepaid in Thailand and Malaysia
- Progress on strategic agenda
KEY FINANCIALS
- Revenues of NOK 30.5 bn (0%)
- EBITDA of NOK 11.5 bn (+3%)
- Net income of NOK 4.2 bn
- Free cash flow of NOK 2.2 bn
TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER APPENDIX
TELENOR GROUP
172 million mobile subscribers Revenues in 2016: NOK 125 bn (USD 15 bn) Market cap: NOK 213 bn (USD 25 bn)
GEOGRAPHIC SPLIT OF KEY FINANCIALS - FULL YEAR 2016
2%
EBITDA
Scandinavia CEE Emerging Asia Mature Asia Other
EBITDA LESS CAPEX
Emerging Asia Mature Asia
Other
NORWAY
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
SWEDEN
26
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (SEK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
High speed Low speed
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION – NORWAY AND SWEDEN
Sweden – fixed broadband subscribers ('000)
*Introduction of data rollover has a negative (non-cash) effect of NOK 9 on ARPU
**ARPU includes a positive one-time effect of SEK 7 related to an interconnect settlement
DENMARK
28
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 1 431 1 254 1 241 1 263 1 309 1 249 9% 12% 11% 11% 14% 18% Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 5%
Mobile ARPU (DKK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
HUNGARY
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 1 175 1 117 1 101 1 124 1 124 1 053 24% 32% 30% 35% 27% 33% Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 -1%
Mobile ARPU (HUF/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
30
MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (EUR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth
BULGARIA
31
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 809 758 768 815 827 732 36% 38% 39% 40% 35% 38% Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 2%
Mobile ARPU (BGN/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth
32
THAILAND (DTAC)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
5 533 5 260 4 629 4 671 5 086 4 751 29% 34% 33% 37% 31% 35% Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 -9%
EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
33
MALAYSIA (DIGI)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 3 430 3 405 3 411 3 324 3 233 2 989 40% 42% 45% 48% 45% 45% Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 -5%
Mobile ARPU (MYR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
34
BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (BDT/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth
PAKISTAN
35
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (PKR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth
MYANMAR
36
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (MMK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
37
BROADCAST
DTH ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
CHANGES IN REVENUES AND EBITDA
| Revenues | EBITDA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported | Organic | Reported | Organic | |
| Norway | -1.6 % | -1.6 % | -6.9 % | -6.9 % |
| Sweden | -2.1 % | 5.7 % | 2.9 % | 11.2 % |
| Denmark | -0.4 % | 5.2 % | 41.6 % | 49.6 % |
| Hungary | -5.8 % | -1.0 % | -1.7 % | 3.3 % |
| Montenegro and Serbia | -9.2 % | -2.9 % | -5.3 % | 1.2 % |
| Bulgaria | 3.4 % | 2.4 % | -2.8 % | 3.1 % |
| Thailand | -9.7 % | -8.9 % | -6.9 % | -6.1 % |
| Malaysia | -12.2 % | -4.8 % | -5.4 % | 2.6 % |
| Bangladesh | 7.6 % | 11.1 % | 13.0 % | 16.7 % |
| Pakistan | 7.2 % | 9.9 % | 22.2 % | 25.3 % |
| Myanmar | 1.6 % | 13.0 % |
3.9 % | 15.6 % |
| Broadcast | -15.7 % | -15.7 % | -37.0 % | -37.0 % |
| Telenor Group | -3.3 % | 0.2 % | -1.4 % | 2.5 % |
38 Organic growth YoY in fixed currency and adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items.
16.8
Subsidiaries Telenor ASA
DEBT MATURITY PROFILE (NOK BN)
| NOK bn | Q1 2017 | Q4 2016 | Q1 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Digi | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| dtac | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.6 |
| Grameenphone | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
BALANCE SHEET AND KEY RATIOS
| Q1 2017 | Q4 2016 | Q1 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets |
209.5 | 206.2 | 205.0 |
| Equity attributable to Telenor ASA shareholders |
54.8 | 50.9 | 62.0 |
| Gross debt* | 85.5 | 86.4 | 75.0 |
| Net debt | 53.7 | 54.4 | 53.6 |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Return on capital employed** | 7% | 8% | 8% |
*) Gross debt = current interest bearing liabilities + non-current interest bearing liabilities
**) Calculated based on an after tax basis of the last twelve months return on average capital employed
NET DEBT RECONCILIATION
| NOK bn | Q1 2017 | Q4 2016 |
Q1 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current interest bearing liabilities |
32.5 | 26.0 | 8.6 |
| Non–current interest bearing liabilities | 53.0 | 60.4 | 66.4 |
| Less: licence obligations |
(2.6) | (4.9) | (3.6) |
| Debt excluding licence obligations |
82.9 | 81.5 | 71.4 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | (26.1) | (23.1) | (14.0) |
| Investments in bonds and commercial papers |
(1.0) | (1.7) | (0.9) |
| Fair value hedge instruments |
(2.1) | (2.3) | (2.9) |
| Net interest bearing debt excl. licence obligations |
53.7 | 54.4 | 53.6 |
42
Q1 2017
| NOK millions | Q1 2017 | Q4 2016 |
Q1 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash flows from operating activities | 9 163 | 9 190 | 11 216 |
| Net cash flows from investing activities | -5 372 | -6 106 | -9 372 |
| Repayments of borrowings - license obligations |
-149 | -218 | -956 |
| Repayments of borrowings – supply chain financing |
- 1 133 |
-944 | -963 |
| Dividends paid to and purchase of share from non controlling interest |
-343 | -413 | -694 |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 166 |
1 509 | -769 |