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Telenor ASA — Investor Presentation 2016
Apr 27, 2016
3773_rns_2016-04-27_24457ed9-0f6b-499e-8bce-aaae295e3f21.pdf
Investor Presentation
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TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER Sigve Brekke, CEO
DISCLAIMER
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated ('relevant persons'). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in any company within the Telenor Group. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Telenor Group's growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives. In particular, the slide "Outlook for 2016" contains forward-looking statements regarding the Telenor Group's expectations. All statements regarding the future are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.
HIGHLIGHTS Q1 2016
A SOLID START TO THE YEAR
- 5.4 million new mobile subscribers
- 6% organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues
- 5% organic EBITDA growth
- Operating cash flow of NOK 6.1 billion
REVENUE GROWTH IN NORWAY IMPACTED BY LOWER HANDSET SALES AND DECLINING FIXED LEGACY REVENUES
MOBILE
- 1% organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues
- Lower handset sales volumes
- New tariffs launched includes EU roaming
FIXED
- 6% revenue decline, primarily driven by telephony, ADSL and wholesale
- 12k new high-speed internet subscribers, compensating for ADSL decline
4 Organic revenue growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
SOLID PROFITABILITY IN NORWAY, PROGRESS ON LONG TERM EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES
44% EBITDA MARGIN
- Mobile gross profit stable despite lower roaming and wholesale contribution
- Opex impacted by lower commissions and operation & maintenance costs
LONG TERM EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES
- Reduce complexity of products, processes and IT systems
- Scope extended to include cable operation
- Net positive effect from 2017
5 EBITDA margin before other items.
CONTINUED GROWTH IN CONSUMER MOBILE IN SWEDEN
MOBILE
- 2% organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues driven by consumer
- 3k net subscriber growth
- Total mobile revenues impacted by handset sales
Mobile organic subscription & traffic revenue growth Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
6 Organic revenue growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
FIXED
- 11k new high-speed internet subscribers
- Aiming to cover 500k new single dwelling households by 2020
CONTINUATION OF TRENDS IN OTHER EUROPEAN MARKETS
DENMARK
- Continued intense competition
- Launch of new business support system
HUNGARY
• Solid trends in postpaid consumer segment, offset by pressure in prepaid and SME
MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA
• 6% organic ARPU growth from increased IC revenues and higher postpaid share
BULGARIA
• Cost control supporting EBITDA margin
Q1 15 Q1 16
Q1 15 Q1 16
Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
8
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH AMIDST INTENSE COMPETITION IN THAILAND
- 225k net subscriber growth
- 2% organic decline in subscription and traffic revenues
- EBITDA margin improvement from lower device subsidies
- 3G population coverage at 94%, 4G now in all 77 provinces
- Solid spectrum portfolio until concession expiry in September 2018
| Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and |
|---|
| disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. |
| concession $v$ | LICENSE 2/ | TOTAL | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 850MHZ | 1800MHZ | 2100MHZ | |||
| 20 | 10MHz | 10MHz | |||
| 30 | 10MHz | 10MHz | 20MHz | ||
| 4Q | 15MHz | 5MHz | 20MHz | ||
| TOTAL | 10MHz | 25MHz | 15MHz | 50MHz |
Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
SOLID POSTPAID PERFORMANCE IN MALAYSIA
- 221k net subscriber growth and maintained market share in highly competitive market
- 2% organic decline in subscription and traffic revenues
- 7% organic growth in postpaid service revenues and stable postpaid ARPU*
- 3G/4G population coverage at 88%/73%
- EBITDA continues to be impacted by margin pressure on international traffic
Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. *) Service revenues according to local definition.
9
STRONG PERFORMANCE IN BANGLADESH AND PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE)
- 12% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth
- 55% EBITDA margin
- SIM re-registration >50% completed
PAKISTAN
- 2.2 million net subscriber growth
- 2% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth
- 40% EBITDA margin
Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
10 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Organic revenue growth
FIRST QUARTER WITH POSITIVE OPERATING CASH FLOW IN MYANMAR
CONTINUED SUBSCRIBER GROWTH
- 1.8 million net subscriber growth
- 52% active data users
- SIM market share estimated at 38%
STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
- 42% EBITDA margin
- 10% operating cash flow margin
NETWORK ROLLOUT ACCORDING TO PLAN
- 5,000 network sites on air
- 62% population coverage
- Aiming for around 9,000 sites
Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16
11 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
CONTINUED SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE GROWTH IN INDIA
- 1.5 million subscriber growth (+15% YoY)
- Total subscriber base of 44 million
- ARPU remains under pressure, with 8% decline YoY
- 9% organic growth in subscription and traffic revenues
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
Date: 22 September 2016 Venue: London
SAVE THE DATE
TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER Morten Karlsen Sørby, Acting CFO
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
- 6% organic growth in mobile subscription & traffic revenues
- 35% EBITDA margin and 5% organic growth in EBITDA
- Operating cash flow of NOK 6.1 billion
- Outlook for 2016 maintained
| YTD | |
|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth | 1.5% |
| EBITDA margin | 35.4% |
| Capex / sales | 16.8% |
15 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. spectrum and licence fees.
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH SOFTENED BY LOWER HANDSET SALES
35% EBITDA MARGIN AND 5% ORGANIC EBITDA GROWTH
CAPEX OF NOK 5.5 BILLION
OPERATING CASH FLOW OF NOK 6.1 BILLION
SIGNIFICANT ONE-TIME ITEMS IN THE QUARTER
| Issue | Account | P&L effect (NOK m) |
|---|---|---|
| Write-down of non-current receivables in India | Other items |
-611 |
| Impairment write-down India | Impairment | -2,302 |
| Reversal of write-down of VimpelCom stake |
Associated companies | +4,398 |
| Impairment write-down in connection with sale of Amedia stake |
Associated companies |
-363 |
| Partial repayment of net investment in Denmark and recycling of related OCI effects |
Financial items |
-577 |
NORMALISED NET INCOME OF NOK 3.6 BILLION
| NOK m | Q1 16 | Q1 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 33 013 | 31 446 |
Broadcast (+211m) |
| EBITDA before other items | 11 685 |
10 795 | |
| Other items | -691 | -38 | India (-611m), Norway (-77m), dtac (-37m) |
| EBITDA | 10 994 | 10 757 |
|
| Depreciation and amortisation | -5 044 | -4 180 | • India (-2,302m), Broadcast (-128m) |
| Impairment losses | -2 430 |
-13 | • VimpelCom (4 582m) |
| EBIT | 3 520 | 6 564 |
• Amedia (-363m) |
| Associated companies | 4 175 |
428 | • Online classifieds (-46m) |
| Net financials | -1 008 |
-550 | |
| Profit before taxes | 6 688 | 6 667 | Telenor ASA (-577m) |
| Taxes | -1 601 |
-1850 | |
| Non-controlling interests | 830 | 967 | |
| Net income to Telenor | 4 256 |
3 852 |
|
| EPS (NOK) | 2.83 | 2.57 |
NET DEBT OF NOK 53.6 BN AND NET DEBT/EBITDA OF 1.2X
46.8 43.9 47.1 46.6 54.1 53.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Net debt (NOK bn) and net debt/EBITDA Change in net debt (NOK bn) *
| Net debt 31 Dec 2015 | 54.1 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | (11.0) |
| Income taxes paid | 1.3 |
| Net interest paid | 0.5 |
| Capex paid | 6.2 |
| Investments in Tapad | 2.7 |
| Divi. paid and minority share purchase | 0.7 |
| Net revenue share dtac | (0.4) |
| Currency effects | (1.6) |
| Licence obligations paid in Myanmar |
1.1 |
| Net change during Q116 | (0.5) |
| Net debt 31 Mar 2016 | 53.6 |
OUTLOOK FOR 2016 MAINTAINED
| 2016 | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth | 2-4% | 1.5% |
| EBITDA margin | 33-34% | 35.4% |
| Capex/sales ratio | 17-19% | 16.8% |
Organic revenue growth in fixed currency, adj. for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees.
HIGHLIGHTS Q1 2016
A SOLID START TO THE YEAR
- 5.4 million new mobile subscribers
- 6% organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues
- 5% organic EBITDA growth
- Operating cash flow of NOK 6.1 billion
TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER Q&A
TELENOR GROUP – FIRST QUARTER APPENDIX
TELENOR GROUP
208 million consolidated mobile subscribers Revenues in 2015: NOK 128 bn (USD 14 bn) Market cap: NOK 202 bn (USD 22 bn)
GEOGRAPHIC SPLIT OF KEY FINANCIALS 2015
PRIORITIES FOR CAPITAL ALLOCATION
NORWAY
30
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
SWEDEN
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
3 114 2 984 2 996 3 188 3 409 3 121 25% 29% 28% 32% 28% 29% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 -5%
Mobile ARPU (SEK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
31
DANMARK
32
From 31 March 2016, pay-as-you-go cards will no longer be part of Telenor Denmark's product offering. Subscription and ARPU figures have been updated retrospectively.
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile ARPU (DKK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
33
BROADCAST
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
DTH ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
HUNGARY
34
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
35
MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
883 853 918 1 061 982 952 32% 33% 35% 38% 32% 31% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 3%
Mobile ARPU (EUR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
BULGARIA
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin
Mobile ARPU (BGN/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
36
37
THAILAND (DTAC)
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 5 265 5 443 5 112 4 600 5 533 5 260 27% 32% 31% 36% 29% 34% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 -5%
Mobile ARPU (THB/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
38
MALAYSIA (DIGI)
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile ARPU (MYR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
39
BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE)
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
2 306 2 516 2 630 2 811 2 924 3 045 50% 54% 54% 51% 55% 55% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 9%
Mobile ARPU (BDT/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
PAKISTAN
40
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin
INDIA
41
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin
Mobile ARPU (INR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
MYANMAR
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 287 768 1 142 1 433 1 496 1 722 20% 42% 48% 43% 42% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 146%
Mobile ARPU (MMK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
42
CHANGES IN REVENUES AND EBITDA
| Revenues | EBITDA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported | Organic | Reported | Organic | |
| Norway | -4.4 % | -4.4 % | -0.7 % | -0.7 % |
| Sweden | 4.6 % | -4.7 % | 4.6 % | -4.6 % |
| Denmark | 0.0 % | -8.2 % | -22.3 % | -28.7 % |
| Hungary | 1.8 % | -5.7 % | 0.1 % | -7.2 % |
| Montenegro and Serbia | 11.6 % | 3.1 % | 3.7 % | -4.3 % |
| Bulgaria | 10.7 % | 1.4 % | 13.1 % | 3.7 % |
| Thailand | -3.4 % | -5.3 % | 1.1 % | -0.9 % |
| Malaysia | -11.2 % | -7.7 % | -14.4 % | -11.0 % |
| Bangladesh | 21.0 % | 9.5 % | 23.6 % | 11.8 % |
| Pakistan | 17.3 % | 8.6 % | 10.5 % | 2.3 % |
| India | 9.9 % | 7.0 % | nm | nm |
| Broadcast | 15.3 % | 15.3 % | 60.3 % | 60.3 % |
| Telenor Group | 5.0 % | 1.5 % | 8.2 % | 5.0 % |
43 Organic growth YoY in fixed currency and adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items.
DEBT MATURITY AND NET DEBT
Debt maturity profile (NOK bn)
Net debt in partly owned subsidiaries (NOK m)
| (NOK m) | Q1 2016 | Q4 2015 | Q1 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Digi | 2 441 | 2 205 | 1 539 |
| dtac | 7 584 | 9 193 | 6 231 |
| Grameenphone | 2 746 | 3 385 | 2 662 |
44 Per 31 Mar 2016. Excl. licence commitments of NOK 3.6 bn
Net debt in partly owned subsidiaries is shown on 100% figures