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Telenor ASA — Earnings Release 2016
Feb 2, 2017
3773_rns_2017-02-02_f4994839-3c91-4e02-8d5f-f11499c13371.pdf
Earnings Release
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TELENOR GROUP – FOURTH QUARTER Jørgen C. Arentz Rostrup, CFO
DISCLAIMER
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated ('relevant persons'). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in any company within the Telenor Group. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Telenor Group's growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives. In particular, the slide "Outlook for 2017" contains forward-looking statements regarding the Telenor Group's expectations. All statements regarding the future are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.
HIGHLIGHTS 2016
FOURTH QUARTER
- Revenues of NOK 33.1 bn (+1%)
- EBITDA of NOK 10.8 bn (+2%)
- High investments in mobile and fibre networks
FULL YEAR
- Revenues of NOK 131.4 bn (+1%)
- EBITDA of NOK 46.5 bn (+5%)
- Progress on transformation agenda
- Free cash flow to equity of NOK 10.3 bn
- Dividend of NOK 7.80 per share
GOOD MOMENTUM ON FIBRE ROLL-OUT IN NORWAY AND SWEDEN
NORWAY
- 3% mobile ARPU growth adj. for handset related effects
- 17% growth in high-speed broadband revenues
- Capex of NOK 1.5 bn, focused on 4G and fibre roll-out
SWEDEN
- 5% EBITDA growth, adj. for one-time effects
- 5% growth in fixed revenues, driven by fibre
DENMARK
4
- 44,000 net mobile subscriber growth in continued highly competitive environment
- 6% organic revenue decline and 12% EBITDA margin
Sweden - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
Organic revenue growth.
Sweden EBITDA % in Q4 16 adjusted for one-time effect
PERFORMANCE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IN LINE WITH TRENDS
HUNGARY
- 2% organic decline in subscription and traffic revenues
- 10% organic growth in EBITDA, driven by opex reduction
BULGARIA
5
- 5% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth
- Focus on pre to post migration in a highly competitive environment
- Awarded fastest mobile network in Bulgaria (Ookla)
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
- 1% organic revenue growth and 30% EBITDA margin
- 254,000 net subscriber decline from seasonal prepaid churn
Bulgaria - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
Organic revenue growth
DOUBLE-DIGIT REVENUE GROWTH AND HEALTHY MARGINS IN EMERGING ASIA
BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE)
- 12% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth
- 2.9 million net subscriber growth during Q4
- Leveraging on data position, supported by superior 3G network
PAKISTAN
- 10% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth
- 1.2 million net subscriber growth during Q4
MYANMAR
- 20% organic revenue growth and 41% EBITDA margin
- 0.4 million net subscriber growth and 6% ARPU uplift vs Q3
INDIA
6
• Operating cash flow break-even following tight cost control
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items.
Pakistan - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
EBITDA GROWTH AND SOLID POSTPAID PERFORMANCE IN THAILAND AND MALAYSIA
THAILAND (DTAC)
- 15% organic growth in postpaid revenues
- 1% organic EBITDA growth amidst 3% decline in subscription and traffic revenues
- Lower regulatory cost offsetting prepaid device subsidies
- 2,700 new 4G sites rolled out during the quarter
MALAYSIA (DIGI)
- 14% organic growth in postpaid revenues
- 6% organic EBITDA growth amidst 2% decline in subscription and traffic revenue
- Improved margin on international traffic
- 4G network reaching 85% population coverage
Malaysia - Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
1% ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH AND 2% EBITDA GROWTH
- 1.2% organic growth adj. for one-time effect in Sweden
- Organic revenue growth driven by emerging Asian operations and improved momentum on fibre in Norway and Sweden
- Lower handset sale vs Q4 2015, especially in Thailand
Revenues (NOK m) EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%)
- 4.8% organic growth adj. for one-time effect in Sweden
- Organic EBITDA growth driven by increased contribution from Bangladesh, Malaysia, Myanmar and India
8 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals.
CAPEX OF NOK 6.9 BILLION, DRIVEN BY INVESTMENTS IN 3G/4G AND FIBRE
• Full-year capex of NOK 23 bn, with capex/sales of 17.3%
• Fibre capex in Norway and Sweden of around NOK 0.8 bn in Q4, and around NOK 2.5 bn for full year 2016
CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT – Q4 AND FULL YEAR
| NOK m | Q4 16 | Q4 15 | Year 2016 | Year 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 33 144 | 33 487 | 131 427 | 128 175 |
| EBITDA before other items | 10 793 | 10 860 | 46 483 | 44 197 |
| Other items | - 326 |
-257 | -1 380 | -872 |
| EBITDA | 10 467 | 10 603 | 45 103 | 43 325 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | -5 094 | -5 083 | -20 050 | -18 384 |
| Impairment losses | -1 187 | -2 103 | -7 983 | -2 181 |
| Operating profit | 4 186 | 3 417 | 17 070 | 22 761 |
| Associated companies | 1 439 | -2 835 | -1 796 | -6 819 |
| Net financials | -1 803 |
-980 | -3 543 | -2 921 |
| Taxes | -910 | -995 | -5 924 |
-6 317 |
| Non-controlling interests | 625 | 732 | 2 974 | 3 289 |
| Net income to Telenor equity holders | 2 286 | -2 125 | 2 832 | 3 414 |
| Earnings per share (NOK) | 1.52 | -1.42 | 1.89 | 2.27 |
ADJUSTED* NET INCOME OF NOK 2.7 BILLION IN Q4
| NOK m | Reported Q4 16 | Adjustment | Adjusted Q4 16 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 33 144 | 203 | 33 347 | • VAT provision Sweden |
|||
| EBITDA before other items | 10 793 | 251 | 11 044 | • Workforce reductions (-355m) |
|||
| Other items | - 326 |
326 | 0 | • Scrapping (-457m) |
|||
| EBITDA | 10 467 | 11 044 | • Sale of property (+458m) |
||||
| Depreciation and amortisation | -5 094 | -5 094 | • India capex (-155m) |
||||
| Impairment losses | - 1 187 |
1 187 | 0 | • Tapad goodwill (-1.0 bn) |
|||
| Operating profit | 4 186 |
5 951 |
|||||
| Associated companies | 1 439 | -1 528 | -89 | • Reversal VimpelCom impairment incl. share of Q3 net income |
|||
| Net financials | -1 803 |
478 | -1 325 | ||||
| Taxes | -910 | -274 | -1 185 |
• Loss on derivative /exchangeable bond) |
|||
| Non-controlling interests | 625 | -23 | 648 | ||||
| Net income - Telenor equity holders |
2 286 | 417 | 2 703 | ||||
| Earnings per share (NOK) | 1.52 | 1.80 |
11 *Adjusted for Other items, impairment losses, VimpelCom and other one-time effects disclosed in our financial reporting
12
Q4 2016
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY OF NOK 10.3 BILLION IN 2016
Net cash flow from operating activities (NOK m) Net cash flow from investing activities (NOK m)
• NOK 39.8 bn in cash flow from operating activities in 2016, vs NOK 37.1 bn in 2015
• NOK -21.1 bn in cash flow from investing activities in 2016, vs NOK -20.3 bn in 2015
NET DEBT OF NOK 54 BN AND NET DEBT/EBITDA OF 1.2x
Net debt (NOK bn) and net debt/EBITDA Change in net debt (NOK bn) *
| Net debt 30 Sep 2016 | 47.9 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | (10.5) |
| Income taxes paid | 1.5 |
| Net interest paid | 0.3 |
| Capex paid | 6.8 |
| Divestment of business | (0.5) |
| Dividends paid to Telenor shareholders | 5.0 |
| Dividends paid to non-controlling interests | 0.4 |
| Currency effects | 1.1 |
| Reclassification of deposits fin. services | 1.2 |
| Changes in working capital and other | 0.7 |
| Net change during Q4 16 | 6.5 |
| Net debt 31 Dec 2016 | 54.4 |
DIVIDEND OF NOK 7.80 PER SHARE FOR 2016
- Proposing a total dividend per share of NOK 7.80 for 2016, for AGM approval in May
- Annual dividend to be paid out in two instalments:
- NOK 4.30 to be paid out in May
- NOK 3.50 to be paid out in November
- Total payout of NOK 11.7 billion, +4% vs 2015
- Confirming the company's ambition to deliver year-on-year growth in dividend
OUTLOOK FOR 2017
| 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth | 1-2% | 1.1% |
| EBITDA margin | Around 36% | 35.4% |
| Capex/sales ratio | 15-16% | 17.3% |
Organic revenue growth in fixed currency, adj. for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. spectrum and licence fees.
HIGHLIGHTS 2016
FOURTH QUARTER
- Revenues of NOK 33.1 bn (+1%)
- EBITDA of NOK 10.8 bn (+2%)
- High investments in mobile and fibre networks
FULL YEAR
- Revenues of NOK 131.4 bn (+1%)
- EBITDA of NOK 46.5 bn (+5%)
- Progress on transformation agenda
- Free cash flow to equity of NOK 10.3 bn
- Dividend of NOK 7.80 per share
TELENOR GROUP – FOURTH QUARTER APPENDIX
TELENOR GROUP
214 million consolidated mobile subscribers Revenues in 2016: NOK 131 bn (USD 16 bn) Market cap: NOK 194 bn (USD 23 bn)
Other
GEOGRAPHIC SPLIT OF KEY FINANCIALS - FULL YEAR 2016
EBITDA
Emerging Asia Mature Asia
Scandinavia CEE Emerging Asia Mature Asia Other
EBITDA LESS CAPEX
Emerging Asia Mature Asia Other
EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licences 19
NORWAY
20
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
SWEDEN
21
Organic growth Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (SEK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION – NORWAY AND SWEDEN
Norway – fixed broadband subscribers ('000)
High speed Low speed
Sweden – fixed broadband subscribers ('000)
High speed Low speed
DENMARK
23
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 1 273 1 431 1 256 1 244 1 265 1 431 10% 10% 13% 12% 11% 12% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 -6%
Mobile ARPU (DKK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
HUNGARY
24
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 1 167 1 175 1 117 1 101 1 124 1 124 36% 24% 32% 30% 35% 27% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 -4%
Mobile ARPU (HUF/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
25
MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (EUR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
BULGARIA
26
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (BGN/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
27
THAILAND (DTAC)
Mobile ARPU (THB/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
28
MALAYSIA (DIGI)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 3 390 3 430 3 405 3 411 3 324 3 233 44% 40% 42% 45% 48% 45% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 -3%
Mobile ARPU (MYR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
29
BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (BDT/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
PAKISTAN
30
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile ARPU (PKR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
INDIA
31
CAPEX 41 35 190 489 409 EBITDA
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
MYANMAR
32
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
Mobile subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 1 433 1 496 1 722 1 802 1 737 1 754 48% 43% 42% 46% 45% 41% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 20% 33%
Mobile ARPU (MMK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
33
BROADCAST
DTH subscribers ('000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin 1 591 1 597 1 765 1 561 1 546 1 495
DTH ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m)
Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees
CHANGES IN REVENUES AND EBITDA
| Revenues | EBITDA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported | Organic | Reported | Organic | |
| Norway | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | 1.3 % | 1.3 % |
| Sweden | -9.6 % | -2.4 % | -35.6 % | -28.1 % |
| Denmark | -8.4 % | -5.9 % | 11.6 % | 15.8 % |
| Hungary | -6.9 % | -4.0 % | 4.8 % | 10.3 % |
| Montenegro and Serbia | -4.3 % | 1.1 % | -9.5 % | -3.4 % |
| Bulgaria | 2.3 % | 5.3 % | -2.8 % | 0.7 % |
| Thailand | -8.1 % | -7.7 % | 0.1 % | 0.7 % |
| Malaysia | -5.7 % | -3.2 % | 3.9 % | 6.4 % |
| Bangladesh | 9.2 % | 11.4 % | 9.9 % | 11.9 % |
| Pakistan | 10.5 % | 12.0 % | -4.9 % | -3.8 % |
| India | -1.3 % | 3.1 % | 206.9 % | 203.5 % |
| Myanmar | 17.2 % | 20.2 % | 12.2 % | 16.2 % |
| Broadcast | -6.4 % | -6.4 % | -11.9 % | -11.9 % |
| Telenor Group | -1.0 % | 0.6 % | -0.6 % | 2.5 % |
34 Organic growth YoY in fixed currency and adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items.
ADJUSTED* NET INCOME OF NOK 14.3 BILLION IN 2016
| NOK m | Reported 2016 | Adjustment | Adjusted 2016 | • VAT provision Sweden (-251) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 131 427 | -8 | 131 419 | • Broadcast (+211m) |
| EBITDA before other items | 46 483 | 40 | 46 523 | • Workforce reductions (-698m) |
| Other items | -1 380 | 1 380 | 0 | • Loss on disposals (-618m) |
| EBITDA | 45 103 | 46 523 | • Write down receivable India (-611m) |
|
| Depreciation and amortisation | -20 050 | -20 050 | • Sale of property (+458m) |
|
| Impairment losses | - 7 983 |
7 983 | 0 | • India (-6.8bn), Tapad (-1.0 bn) |
| Operating profit | 17 070 | 26 473 |
||
| Associated companies | -1 796 | 1 511 | -285 | • VimpelCom (-1.1 bn) and Amedia ((-0,4 bn) |
| Net financials | -3 543 |
1 573 | -1 970 | |
| Taxes | -5 924 |
-924 | -6 847 |
• Loss on derivative (exchangeable bond) (-996m) |
| Non-controlling interests | 2 974 | -88 | 3 061 | • Recycling of currency losses internal |
| Net income to Telenor equity holders | 2 832 | 14 308 | loans (-577m) | |
| Earnings per share (NOK) | 1.89 | 9.53 |
*Adjusted for Other items, impairment losses, VimpelCom and other one-time effects disclosed in our financial reporting
BALANCE SHEET AND KEY RATIOS
| Q4 2016 | Q3 2016 | Q4 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets |
206.2 | 202.0 | 204.9 |
| Equity attributable to Telenor ASA shareholders |
50.9 | 53.1 | 58.5 |
| Gross debt* | 86.4 | 84.3 | 76.4 |
| Net debt | 54.4 | 47.9 | 54.1 |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 1.21 | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| Return on capital employed** | 8% | 4% | 8% |
*) Gross debt = current interest bearing liabilities + non-current interest bearing liabilities
**) Calculated based on an after tax basis of the last twelve months return on average capital employed
NET DEBT RECONCILIATION
| NOK bn | Q4 2016 |
Q3 2016 | Q4 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current interest bearing liabilities |
26.0 | 25.7 | 12.6 |
| Non–current interest bearing liabilities | 60.4 | 58.5 | 63.8 |
| Less: licence obligations |
(4.9) | (4.8) | (4.9) |
| Debt excluding licence obligations |
81.5 | 79.5 | 71.5 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | (23.1) | (27.6) | (14.0) |
| Investments in bonds and commercial papers |
(1.7) | (1.3) | (1.0) |
| Fair value hedge instruments |
(2.3) | (2.7) | (2.5) |
| Net interest bearing debt excl. licence obligations |
54.4 | 47.9 | 54.1 |
DEBT MATURITY PROFILE (NOK BN)
Subsidiaries
Telenor ASA
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY
| NOK millions | Q4 2016 |
Q4 2015 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash flows from operating activates | 9 190 | 7 944 | 39 778 | 37 107 |
| Net cash flows from investing activities | -6 106 | -6 431 | -21 105 | -20 281 |
| Repayments of borrowings - license obligations |
-218 | -1 077 | -1 562 | -2 136 |
| Repayments of borrowings – supply chain financing |
-944 | -876 | -3 672 | -2 538 |
| Dividends paid to and purchase of share from non controlling interest |
-413 | -509 | -3 139 | -3 777 |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 509 | -950 | 10 300 | 8 374 |