Investor Presentation • Jun 26, 2013
Investor Presentation
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Dr. Immo Querner, CFO Dr. Gerhard Stahl, CRO
| I | A h d i i l t t- p p r o a c a n o r g a n s a o n a s e u p |
Q D I r. m m o u e r n e r |
|---|---|---|
| I I |
C M E V k l t t r e p o r e r e s s : y u |
D G h d S h l t r. e r a r a |
| I I I |
S C R h d l d k l t t t r e p o r : m e o o o g y a n e y r e s u s |
D G h d S h l t r. e r a r a |
| L u n |
h B k c r e a |
|
| I V |
O i l i i A L M / C d i V A R t t t p e r a o n a s a o n : r e |
Q D I r. m m o e r n e r u |
| V | S & P E R M i d B F i r e e a n a n p r o c e s s v w |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| V I |
Q & A f i o r o p e n s s u e s |
Immo Querner became the CFO of Talanx AG in 2006 following Talanx's acquisition of Gerling Group. He holds a university degree in engineering (Dipl.-Ing.) from Berlin Technical University (TU Berlin) as well as a Master of Philosophy from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. In addition, he holds a doctoral degree in economics from TU Berlin.
He has started his post-university career as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company, working onprojects in various European countries, such as Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium and France. In 1996, he joined the Gerling Credit Insurance Group to head the Strategy/Participations/ Outward Reinsurance department. He became the CFO of Gerling Group in 2002 and held this position until the acquisition by Talanx. Immo Querner represents Talanx at the European Insurance CFO Forum ("CFO Forum").
Gerhard Stahl holds the position of the Chief Risk Officer in Talanx since 2011 and heads the Group RiskManagement of the Talanx Group. After having studied mathematics, he joined the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) from 1995 to 2007. During this time he headed the Risk Modelling Group (QRM), the unit of the BaFin that is in charge for on-site inspections of risk management models.
Furthermore he contributes very much to the implementation of Basel II and Solvency II within regulatoryworking groups. In 2007 he joined Talanx as Deputy Chief Risk Officer. He holds an honorary doctor degree(Dr. rer. pol. h. c.) from the University of Bamberg for his scientific contributions to financial risk management. From 2008 to 2009 he was adjunct professor at the University of Ulm. Since 2010 he is adjunct professor at the Leibniz University of Hannover.
Talanx Risk Management set-up to reflect entrepreneurial spirit of the Group
Commitment to act in the interest of shareholders
Dedication to focus on underwriting risk
MCEV slightly up in 2012 despite the challenging economical environment
Internal model with robust and promising results
4Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
| I | A h d i i l t t- p p r o a c a n o r g a n s a o n a s e p u |
Q D I r. m m o e r n e r u |
|---|---|---|
| I I |
C M E V k l t t r e p o r e r e s s : y u |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| I I I |
S C R h d l d k l t t t r e p o r m e o o o g a n e r e s s : y y u |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| L u n |
h B k c r e a |
|
| I V |
O i l i i A L M / C d i V A R t t t p e r a o n a s a o n : r e |
Q D I r. m m o e r n e r u |
| V | S & P E R M i d B F i r e e a n a n p r o c e s s v w |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| V I |
Q & A f i o r o p e n s s e s u |
Talanx Risk Management set-up to reflect entrepreneurial spirit of the Group
Legal entity philosophy most adequate to comply with legal and factual restrictions and requirements
Enabling managers to optimize profitability on their respective business level
Side conditions of business are intrinsicly deducted from Talanx's business model
Dedication to focus on underwriting risk
| p lo in in lue by in b le d -te ta ng rm cr ea se va s us a an f i b le h d ig im lem io f o B B- ise ta t ta t 2 t p ro g ro w an v or ou s p en n o ur ex p er |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P f i t t t r o a r g e |
C i l t a p a t m a n a g e m e n |
R i k t s m a n a g e m e n |
G h t t t r o a r g e w |
H m a n r e s o r c e u u i l p o c y |
|||
| 1> Ro E ∅ T O P 2 0 Eu ins ro p ea n ur er s 1≥ Ro E is k- fre r e 2 in te t r te re s a 0 bp 7 5 + s |
Fu l f i l l S & P "A A " i l re ire ta t ca p q u me n E f f ic ien f t u se o f i la b le ina ing av a nc ins tru ts me n |
Ge i ive te t ne ra p os l e ing an nu a ar n s f i h a ba b i l i t ty p ro o w 9 0 % Su f f ic ien i l t c ta to ap i hs d t ta w n lea t t a a s n d 3, 0 0 0- te ag g re g a ho k ea r s c y Inv is k tm t r es en 5 0 % ma x. |
f p im 5 0 % o r ar y G W P fro fo ig m re n ion t op er a s Se f lec ive i b le t ta p ro h in Re i l t ta g row Ge d rm an y an Re ins ur an ce |
Co inu t n ou s de lop d t a ve me n n f o ion t p ro mo o wn k fo wo r rce In d iv i du l a i b i l i d ty re sp on s an ia l tre en p re ne ur ir i t sp |
Source: Talanx Group Strategy as presented on the Capital Markets Day, 17 April 2013
Talanx's risk management targets reflect commitment to shareholders' interest
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
IV S&P ERM review
Central steering combined with decentralized responsibilities…
leads to...strong entrepreneurial spirit
Source: Capital Markets Day, 17 April 2013
Strong entrepreneurial culture across the Group to unlock full earnings potential
IV S&P ERM review
Equity evaluated as difference between market value of assets and liabilities
For economic capital: adjustments are necessary, Talanx defines SNA:= shareholders' net assets (=A)
Target function to maximize:
$$
A_i = \max(0; U_i - l_i)
$$
with:
10
Target to maximize shareholder value under side conditions to be set by risk management
IV S&P ERM review
11
Business-model compliant definition of risk appetite
$$
P(A^_{t+1} - A^_{t} < 0) \le 10\%
$$
Net income of Talanx after minorities, after tax based on restated figures as shown in annual reports;2001–2003 according to US GAAP, 2004–2012 according to IFRS2Adjusted on the basis of IAS 8
*IFRS EquitySource: Capital Markets Day, 17 April 2013
Limitation of annual loss risk pre-condition for steady business development and capability to continuously pay out dividends
IV S&P ERM review
Vand BaFin process
Target: a provider of underwriting risk rather than a "derivative" on the financial market
Does the (internally market-remotely organized) insurance undertaking, with its products/its production process, use capital resources in a way superior (or at least not inferior) to a direct access to the other external markets?
Are the frictional costs (e.g. controlling, administration, taxes, principal agent considerations) of internalising outsourced businesses more than offset by "synergies"?
Coase-considerations trigger decisions on make or buy, and make or avoid
15
IV S&P ERM review
max(0; ) i i i A=U−l
Simplified Merton model. Minimal value of "0" signals the Merton option, or limited liability putoption, not to inject any further capital into an over-indebted enterprise
$$
A_i = \max(0; V_i + M_i - l_i)
$$
Enterpreneurial risk U reflects the sum of max(underwriting (V) and market (M) risk
$$
Max [0; V + M - l] \leq Max [0; V - l^] + Max [M - l + l^]
$$
\n
$$
\frac{[V + M - l] + [(V + M - l]]}{2} \leq \frac{[V - l^] + [(V - l^] + [M - l + l^] + [(M - l + l^]]}{2}
$$
\n
$$
[(V + M - l]] \leq |[V - l^] + [(M - l + l^]]
$$
\n
$$
Q.e.d. |a+b| \leq |a| + |b|
$$
Please refer to R.C. Merton, Theory of Rational Option Pricing, Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4 No. 1, 1973, pp. 141-183
IV S&P ERM review
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
(as of 31 December 2012, €m)
Figures show risk categorisation of the Talanx Group after minorities, after tax, post diversification effects as of 2012. Solvency capital requirement determined according to 99.5% security level, economic view, after minorities
Market risk well below the defined limit of 50%
IV S&P ERM review
All numbers are historical beta figures. Period for beta calculation: 4 January – 31 May 2013. The peer group contains Allianz, Aviva, Axa, CNP, Generali, Munich Re, Prudential, Swiss Re and Zurich. Source: Bloomberg
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VAR
IV S&P ERM review
19
"Schumpeter in the box": risk management intended to reflect decentralised entrepreneurship
Dedication to shareholder value approach on Group as well as on legal entity level
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
The legal form (stock corporation) is characterized by three basic principles
Liability is limited to the company's assets which privileges the controlling shareholder; the company's management is obliged to take this into account
The company's management bears the responsibility for the business and needs to take into account the minority shareholders in its decisions
Legal and regulatory requirements as starting point on how to set up risk management.Responsibility to pay claims falls to solo-entities in the first place, not to the Group
IV S&P ERM review
All other approaches are shortcuts for this approach
Source: TowersWatson (Group Models by Tigran Kalberer, Michael Thomas & Michael Klüttgens)
There is also diversification in SST-like models!Diversification is more an outgoing result rather than an ingoing assumption
Explicit interactions between legal entities both by means of ownership and by legally binding capitalor risk transfer instruments
Allows us to reason about solo-entity risk factors and group interactions
Source: TowersWatson (Group Models by Tigran Kalberer, Michael Thomas & Michael Klüttgens)
Talanx Risk Management bases on the legal entity approach
On Group level, Talanx Risk Management employs 34 highly qualified specialists
MCEV slightly up in 2012 despite the challenging economic environment
MCEV model has been further improved and fine-tuned
Acquisitions in foreign retail business positively contribute to the MCEV
Interest rate sensitivity further reduced by hedges closed in 2013
IV S&P ERM review
Assumptions of Talanx are comparable with peers
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VARIV S&P ERM review V and BaFin process VI Q&A for open issues
| Pr im ar |
in Re in su ra nc e su ra nc e y |
Ta lan x |
C ha ng e |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 0 1 2 |
2 0 1 1 |
2 0 1 2 |
2 0 1 1 |
2 0 1 2 |
2 0 1 1 |
C ha ng e |
|
| €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | % | |
| Ne lu ( N A V ) t a t v ss e a e |
1, 0 7 2. 1 |
7 9 4. 0 |
5 0 3. 6 |
5 6 4. 7 |
1, 5 7 5. 6 |
1, 3 5 8. 7 |
1 6. 0 |
| Pr lue f fu f i t v tu ts es en a o re p ro ( in iva len ) ta ty t ce r eq u |
9 0 9. 7 |
1, 0 4 8. 6 |
1, 3 4 4. 7 |
1, 2 4 0. 6 |
2, 2 5 4. 4 |
2, 2 8 9. 2 |
-1 5 |
| F ina ia l o ion d g t te nc p s a n ua ra n es ( F O Gs ) |
-7 0 5. 7 |
-6 7 9. 0 |
-7 9 |
-6 9 |
-7 1 3. 7 |
-6 8 5. 8 |
-4 1 |
| Co f r i du l n -h dg b le is ks t o s es a on e ea r ( Co R N H R ) |
-1 2 4. 0 |
-6 7. 4 |
-2 1 4. 9 |
-2 0 8. 4 |
-3 3 8. 9 |
-2 7 5. 8 |
-2 2. 9 |
| Co f r ire d c i l ( Co R C ) t o ta s eq u ap |
-3 3. 7 |
-6 3. 7 |
1. 6 -5 |
-4 9. 9 |
-8 2 5. |
-1 1 3. 6 |
2 0 5. |
| Lo k hr h a d o he d j t t tm ts o ou g n r a us en |
7 4. 3 |
-2 3. 0 |
-3 9. 4 |
-3 7. 1 |
3 4. 9 |
-6 0. 1 |
1 5 8. 1 |
| Va lu in -fo ( V I F ) e rc e |
1 2 0. 6 |
5. 2 1 4 |
1, 0 3 0, 9 |
9 3 8. 4 |
5 5 1, 1 1. |
5 1, 1 3. 8 |
-0 2 |
| C f in i ies M E V te t a r m or |
1, 1 9 2. 6 |
1, 0 0 9. 4 |
1, 5 3 4. 5 |
1, 5 0 3. 1 |
2, 7 2 7. 1 |
2, 5 1 2. 5 |
8. 5 |
Note: All values are displayed after minorities.
MCEV of €2.7bn reflects life business of primary insurance and reinsurance
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VARIV S&P ERM review
Vand BaFin process
MCEV slightly up in 2012 despite the challenging economic environment
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VAR
IV S&P ERM review V and BaFin process VI Q&A for open issues
| Pri ma |
ins ry ura |
nce | Re ins ura nce |
Ta lan x |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 FS +R |
2 VIF |
To tal |
FS +R C |
VIF | To tal |
To tal |
|
| €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | |
| Op ing MC EV en |
794 .0 |
215 .4 |
1, 009 .4 |
564 .7 |
938 .4 |
1, 503 .1 |
2, 512 .5 |
| Ca ital inje ctio p n |
- | - | - | -0.0 | - | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Div ide nd nts pay me |
-66 .7 |
- | -66 .7 |
- | - | - | -66 .7 |
| Ch e in cha rat ang cu rre ncy ex nge es |
- | - | - | -3.2 | -0.5 | -3.7 | -3.7 |
| Oth imp lica tion er s |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ad jus ted ing ark sis et c ten t op en m on bed ded lue ( MC EV ) em va |
727 .3 |
215 .4 |
942 .7 |
561 .5 |
937 .9 |
1, 499 .4 |
2, 442 .1 |
| Ne w b usi alu nes s v e |
-2.2 | 67. 7 |
65. 4 |
-64 .1 |
217 .9 |
153 .8 |
219 .2 |
| Exp ed exi stin bus ine trib utio ect g ss con n (re fere e) rat nce |
- | 142 .4 |
142 .4 |
9.0 | 37. 1 |
46. 1 |
188 .5 |
| Exp ect ed exi stin bus ine trib utio g ss con n ( of r efe ) in e rate xce ss ren ce |
- | 28. 1 |
28. 1 |
9.6 | - | 9.6 | 37. 7 |
| Tra nsf fro m V IF a nd RC FS to ers |
118 .3 |
-11 8.3 |
- | 90. 2 |
-90 .2 |
0.0 | 0.0 |
| Exp erie rian nce va ce |
27. 8 |
-21 .3 |
6.4 | -66 .7 |
-23 .0 |
-89 .7 |
-83 .3 |
| Ass tion ch um p ang es |
- | 133 .8 |
133 .8 |
-93 .4 |
-48 .2 |
-14 1.6 |
-7.7 |
| Oth atin aria er o per g v nce |
26. 0 |
-67 .2 |
-93 .2 |
1.5 | -12 .8 |
-11 .3 |
-10 4.5 |
| MC Op tin EV rni era g ea ngs |
117 .9 |
165 .1 |
283 .0 |
-11 3.9 |
80. 9 |
-33 .0 |
250 .0 |
| Eco ic v aria nom nce s |
-2.7 | -18 5.0 |
-18 7.6 |
160 .2 |
7.0 | 167 .2 |
-20 .4 |
| Oth ting rian er non op era va ce |
-3.4 | -86 .8 |
-90 .2 |
-0.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | -85 .0 |
| To tal MC EV rni ea ngs |
111 .8 |
-10 6.6 |
5.2 | 46. 2 |
93. 0 |
139 .3 |
144 .5 |
| Clo sin dju stm ent g a s |
233 .0 |
11. 7 |
244 .7 |
-10 4.2 |
- | -10 4.2 |
140 .5 |
| Ca ital inj ect ion p |
239 .6 |
11. 7 |
251 .3 |
-76 .9 |
- | -76 .9 |
174 .4 |
| Div ide nd nts pay me |
-6.6 | 0.0 | -6.6 | -27 .3 |
- | -27 .3 |
-33 .9 |
| Clo MC sin EV aft min ori ties g er |
1, 072 .1 |
120 .6 |
1, 192 .6 |
503 .6 |
1, 030 .9 |
1, 534 .5 |
2, 727 .1 |
FS = free surplus, RC = required capital, 2 VIF = value-in-force, 3 net effect mainly from the acquisitions of Warta and TU Europa and the disposal of Aspecta Liechtenstein
MCEV slightly up in 2012 despite the challenging economic environment
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VARIV S&P ERM review V and BaFin process VI Q&A for open issues
| Pri | ins ma ry ura nce |
Re ins ura nce |
Ta lan x |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201 2 |
201 1 |
201 2 |
201 1 |
201 2 |
201 1 |
Ch ang e |
|
| €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | €m | % | |
| Pro fit/L Ne w b usi oss on nes s |
-2.2 | -4.5 | -64 .1 |
-82 .6 |
-66 .4 |
-87 .1 |
23. 8 |
| ts ( t) Pre t va lue of futu rofi tain ty e iva len sen re p cer qu |
100 .7 |
104 .7 |
246 .0 |
245 .2 |
346 .6 |
349 .9 |
-0.9 |
| Fin ial tion nd s ( FO Gs ) tee anc op s a gua ran |
-18 .1 |
-29 .0 |
0.0 | 0.0 | -18 .1 |
-29 .0 |
37. 4 |
| Co f re sid ual n-h edg eab le r isks ( Co RN HR ) st o no |
-11 .7 |
-5. 1 |
-18 .8 |
-31 .1 |
-30 .5 |
-36 .2 |
15. 7 |
| Co f re ired ital ( Co RC ) st o qu ca p |
-2.2 | -1.2 | -5.5 | -10 .7 |
-7.7 | -11 .9 |
35. 1 |
| Loo k th h a nd oth dju stm ent rou g er a s |
-1.0 | -6.4 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -11 .0 |
8 57. |
| fte Ne w b usi alu ino riti nes s v e a r m es |
65. 4 |
58. 5 |
153 .8 |
116 .2 |
219 .2 |
174 .6 |
25. 5 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ne w b usi in nes s m arg |
1.6 8 |
1.5 1 |
5.8 2 |
3.2 8 |
3.3 5 |
2.3 5 |
42. 5 |
Values exclude the NBV of the new acquisitions in Poland.
Increase of Talanx's new business value by 25.5%
| Pr im in ar y su ra nc e 2 0 1 2 |
Re in su ra nc e 2 0 1 2 |
Ta lan x 2 0 1 2 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| €m | €m | €m | |
| C M E V f ino i ies te t a r m r |
1, 1 9 2. 6 |
1, 5 3 4. 5 |
2, 7 2 7. 1 |
| % | % | % | |
| / ( ) Mo l i Mo b i d i 5 % i ta ty ty ty r r no n- an nu + |
-3 5 |
-3 3. 4 |
-2 0. 3 |
| Mo l i / Mo b i d i % ( i ) ta ty ty -5 ty r r no n- an nu |
3. 3 |
3 6. 0 |
2 1. 7 |
| Mo l i % ( i ) ta ty 5 ty r + an nu |
3. 1 |
3. 6 |
3. 4 |
| ( ) Mo l i -5 % i ta ty ty r an nu |
-3 3 |
-3 8 |
-3 6 |
| La 1 0 % te p se ra + |
-1 3 |
-1 2. 3 |
-7 5 |
| La -1 0 % te p se ra |
1. 4 |
8. 3 |
5. 3 |
| Ma in 1 0 % te na nc e e xp en se s + |
-9 2 |
-3 2 |
8 -5 |
| Ma in 1 0 % te na nc e e xp en se s - |
8. 9 |
2. 9 |
5. 5 |
| Y ie l d c 1 % urv e + |
3 2. 4 |
-7 5 |
1 0. 0 |
| Y ie l d c 1 % urv e - |
-7 5. 3 |
9. 0 |
-2 7. 8 |
| Sw ion im l ie d v la i l i ies t t t 2 5 % ap p o + |
-1 6. 5 |
-0 3 |
-7 4 |
| Eq i d lue 1 0 % ty ty u an p ro p er va + |
4. 9 |
0. 1 |
2. 2 |
| Eq i d lue ty ty 1 0 % u an p ro p er va - |
-5 2 |
-0 1 |
-2 3 |
| Eq i ion la i l i ies 2 % ty t t t 5 u op vo + |
3. 8 |
0. 0 |
1. 6 |
Diversification effect between primary and reinsurance, namely in interest rate sensitivity
IV S&P ERM review
Vand BaFin process
VI Q&A for open issues
| im in Pr ar su ra nc e y 2 0 1 2 |
in Re su ra nc e 2 0 1 2 |
Ta lan x 2 0 1 2 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| €m | €m | €m | |
| Ne Bu ine Va lue ( N B V ) f ino i ies te t w s ss a r m r |
6 5. 4 |
1 5 3. 8 |
2 1 9. 2 |
| % | % | % | |
| / Mo l i Mo b i d i % ( i ) ta ty ty 5 ty r r + no n- an nu |
-9 0 |
-2 7. 5 |
-2 2. 0 |
| Mo l i / Mo b i d i ( i ) ta ty ty -5 % ty r r no n- an nu |
6. 5 |
2 6. 7 |
2 0. 7 |
| Mo l i ( i ) ta ty 5 % ty r + an nu |
2. 5 |
1. 1 |
1. 5 |
| ( ) Mo l i -5 % i ta ty ty r an nu |
-3 0 |
-1 2 |
-1 7 |
| La te 1 0 % p se ra + |
-6 7 |
-7 4 |
-7 2 |
| La -1 0 % te p se ra |
0 5. |
6. 0 |
5. 7 |
| Ma in te 1 0 % na nc e e xp en se s + |
-1 6. 7 |
-3 2 |
-7 3 |
| Ma in 1 0 % te na nc e e xp en se s - |
1 2. 7 |
3. 6 |
6. 3 |
| Y ie l d c 1 % urv e + |
4 3. 1 |
-9 2 |
6. 4 |
| Y ie l d c 1 % urv e - |
-9 6. 9 |
9. 7 |
-2 0. 0 |
| Sw ion im l ie d v la i l i ies 2 5 % t t t ap p o + |
-1 7. 6 |
0. 0 |
-5 3 |
| Eq i d lue 1 0 % ty ty u an p ro p er va + |
4. 4 |
0. 0 |
1. 3 |
| Eq i d lue 1 0 % ty ty an p ro p er va u - |
-5 2 |
0. 0 |
-1 6 |
| Eq i ion la i l i ies ty t t t 2 5 % op vo + u |
4. 1 |
0. 0 |
1. 2 |
Diversification effect on interest rate sensitivity also in NBV between primary and reinsurance
Talanx employs a conservative duration matching approach
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VARIV S&P ERM review V and BaFin process VI Q&A for open issues
| E i b l h ( l i d ) t t c o n o m c a a n c e s e e s s e y |
C t o m m e n s |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A t s s e s |
L i b i l i i t a e s |
( ) T E R M T l E i R i k M t t a a n n e r p r s e s a n a g e m e n x - i d "e i " d f i i i f t t t c o n s s e n a n c o n o m c e n o n o f f i d i t t e e c v e u r a o n : |
||
| M C E V |
T R A T M C E V ∆ ∆ t ∆ ∆ s s e s a x = - - |
|||
| T a x |
i i i i ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ T R h i l t e c n c a r e s e r v e s = |
|||
| i = i t t t n e r e s r a e |
||||
| A t s s e s |
f i = l l i i ∆ t t t e r s m a n c r e a s e o n e r e s r a e v y |
|||
| T h i f l i l i t t s r e e c s n e r a a |
||||
| T h i l R e c n c a e s e rv e s |
M l i l d i h t t t a n a g e m e n r e s a s m p e m e n e n e u i f i d C F O F l i M C E V t t c e r e o r u m c o m p a n l l i t c a c a o n u |
|||
| B d h i i h h f i l h i i t t t t u r e n s a r n g w e s c a a u o r e s |
||||
| M k i i f h t t t t t t t a r e c o n s s e n r e p r e s e n a o n o e a s s e d i t r a o n u |
Effective duration also basis for the day-to-day high frequency ALM radar screen
Please also see Section IV on the application of ALM/Credit VARs
Hedging measures taken in 2013 have further reduced interest rate sensitivity by 17%
As of the reporting date 31 December 2012, Talanx performed a group internal model run (TERM* 2012)
The results presented in the following are taken from the Group model TERM 2012 based on the first validation
The Group results referring to the forecast distribution (e.g. solvency capital requirement or correlation) are derived from a semi-parametric model
This semi-parametric model allows for a straightforward aggregation of results calculated by solo entities via correlation matrices which reflect the experience of former model runs
* TERM = Talanx Enterprise Risk Model
IV S&P ERM review
Vand BaFin process
HGI
TxD
41
Tax according to economic reality (Solo level)
HGI = HDI-Gerling Industrie Versicherung AG, TxD = Talanx Deutschland AG, TINT = Talanx International AG, HR = Hannover Rückversicherung AG
The Economic View is the main reporting view of Talanx
TINT HR
II MCEV report: key results SCR report: methodology and key results III Operationalisation: ALM/Credit VAR
IV S&P ERM review
V
and BaFin process
economic view, after minorities
Approach and organisational set-up
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
economic view, after minorities
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
Solvency capital requirement; determined according to 99.5% security level, economic view, after minorities
Figures show risk categorisation of the Talanx Group after minorities, after tax, post diversification effects as of 2012. Solvency capital requirement determined according to 99.5% security level, economic view, after minorities
High diversification between primary insurance and reinsurance in non-life risk
Talanx Group profits from high diversification between divisions; especially Reinsurance shows a low correlation with other divisions
Increase in CAR mainly results from rise in own funds; SCR robust over time
47
Talanx Economic View is conservative in not including subordinated liabilities
Solvency capital requirement; determined according to 99.5% security level, regulatory view, before minorities
Talanx CAR at comfortable level even after haircut
IV S&P ERM review
Vand BaFin process
VI Q&A for open issues
| S C R |
C A R |
|
|---|---|---|
| O F d V A R w n u n s - |
1. 8 |
3 7 7 % |
| E d l V A R t x p e c e v a u e – |
1. 9 |
3 1 % 5 |
Regulatory uncertainty concerning the procedure to apply. Talanx chooses the more conservative approach
Constant improvements of models and processes
HGI = HDI-Gerling Industrie Versicherung AG, TxD = Talanx Deutschland AG, TINT = Talanx International AG, HR = Hannover Rückversicherung AG
Core business of an insurer is risk, therefore state-of-the-art risk models should be applied
| C i l A d R i ( S l I ) t t a p a e q u a c y a o o v e n c y |
C i l A d R i ( S l I I ) t t a p a e q u a c y a o o v e n c y |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 1 | 9 | 7 |
| 1 | % | % |
| 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 2 | % | % |
Internal models capture the risk situation more appropriately
To which extent do regulators limit potential capital savings relative to standard models?
Currently, insurers do not face dramatic constraints relative to standard models, however…
… due to regulatory uncertainty it is not yet finally clarified which limitations result from the haircut
… standard methods are based on some non-conservative asssumptions (e.g. non-defaultable government bonds)
Eventually, non-conservative assumptions do not reflect the economic common sense and can therefore not be seen as a limitation
No significant limitations in comparison to standard models
VI
Q&A for open issues
Analysis and steering of asset management decisions in the context of ALM management and corporate/credit risk positioning
Intra-year tool: dedication to analyse and steer continuously during the whole year
Allowing for a frequent, fast and robust assessment
Safe-guarding the shareholders' net assets continuously throughout the year
Establishing a day-to-day proven concept
60
Duration of cash flow structure 1 = Duration of cash flow structure 2butValue-at-Risk of cash flow structure 1 <> Value-at-Risk of cash flow structure 2
IV S&P ERM review
Vand BaFin process
"market consitent", i.e. spread implied ("PIT") and/or rating consistent ("TTC")
2 more conservative approach in comparison to the EIOPA Proposal for the Solvency II standard approachPD = probability of default
LGD = loss-given default
Vand BaFin process
potential portfolio credit risk"with a probability of 99.5% the loss from credit risk doesn't exceed the Credit VAR" on the basis of "Moodys/KMV©"
Robust implementation of the basis of standard industry tools
Simulation: portfolio with identical expected loss, but different portfolio risk
| I d e a |
f " M i d l t e a s u r n g u n a m e n a " d i i k t c r e r s |
" M i k i l i d t- e a s u r n g m a r e m p e " d i i k t c r e r s |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| P t a r a m e e r |
E i i l d f l t m p r c a a v e r a g e e a u b b i l i i d i i t t t p r o a e s a n r a n s o n ( ) b d i t t r a e s a s e o n r a n g s |
M k i l i d d f l t- t a r e m p e e a u b b i l i i d d i t p r o a e s a n y n a m c ( i i b d t t t r a n s o n r a e s a s e o n ) d i d d l i l i t t t c r e s p r e a s a n o a v y |
|
| U s a g e |
P f l i / i t o r o o s s u e r l i i i d i t t m a o n a n e c o n o m c i l h i t c a p a c s o n u |
E l i a r y w a r n n g m e a s u r e |
... integrated investment and risk management process
| f i P l t o r o o M t a n a g e m e n |
i i L t m l t c o n r o s |
i R k s l t c o n r o s |
R i t e p o r n g |
|---|---|---|---|
| R i k M t s a n a g e m e n E h k t a n e c e c s o n x- l l l i i i l d i t a m s n c u n g i t t n v e s m e n h h l d t r e s o s M i h k t t t e e n g e m a r e i t r e q u r e m e n s |
M i i h t t o n o r n g e k i t t m a r e r e q u r e m e n s E h k f t x- p o s c e c s o i t t n v e s m e n h h l d t r e s o s |
f M i i l l t o n o r n g o a i i f i i k t s g n c a n r s s L i i f t t m s y s e m o r i i f i i k t e v e r y s g n c a n r s C i t t a r r y n g o u s r e s s f l l t t e s s o r a i i f i i k t s g n c a n r s s ( i l, b t t e x c e p o n a u = ) l i b l t p a s e e e n s u v T k i i t t a n g n o a c c o n u i k i t t r s c o n c e n r a o n |
I d i t m m e a e l i h t t t e s c a a o n o e B d h i i l t o a r e n c r c a w f i i i k t n o r m a o n o n a r s i i t t s u a o n R l i t t e g u a r r e p o r n g o h B d h i k t t e o a r o n e r s i i d h t t s a o n, a e r e n c e u l i i d t t o m s a n o n i f t q u e s o n s o h d l t m e o o o g y Q l i k t t a r e r r s r e p o r u y h S i t t o e u p e r v s o r y B d o a r |
Fully implemented in day-to-day routine processes
Risk management allowing for entrepreneurial spirit: "Freedom within boundaries"
| I | A h d i i l t t- p p r o a c a n o r g a n s a o n a s e p u |
Q D I r. m m o e r n e r u |
|---|---|---|
| I I |
C M E V k l t t r e p o r e r e s s : y u |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| I I I |
S C R h d l d k l t t t r e p o r m e o o o g a n e r e s s : y y u |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| L n u |
h B k c r e a |
|
| I V |
O / C i l i i A L M d i V A R t t t p e r a o n a s a o n r e : |
Q D I r. m m o e r n e r u |
| V | S & P E R M i d B F i r e e a n a n p r o c e s s v w |
G S D h d h l t r. e r a r a |
| V I |
Q & A f i o r o p e n s s e s u |
The validation of correlation is achieved by backtesting SCR results at solo, division and group level as well. The results over four-year-experience have shown no evidence against our diversification benefits. Furthermore correlations within an input model are valid
An empirical analysis has shown that model risk related to our entities approachis less compared to those approaches based on risk categories
Correlations of risk drivers are validated;the model risk in solo-entity approach is smaller than that based on risk categories
"We regard TPG's enterprise risk management (ERM) and management and governance practices as neutral for the ratings. However, our view of TPG'sERM as strong contributes to our more favorable anchor assessment and reflects our favourable view of the group's riskmanagement culture, risk controls, and strategic and emerging risk management of this expanding organization."
"We assess TPG's capital and earnings as very strong. In 2012, TPG's capital adequacy was within our range for the 'AA' rating level. In our base case, we anticipate that TPG will maintain this level of capitalization in 2013-2015."
*) Insurance Industry And Country Risk AssessmentSource: Standard & Poor´s, Rating Report, 12 June 2013
73
| C t a e g o r y |
A t s s e s s m e n T l a a n x i P G r m a r y r o u p |
|---|---|
| R i k t s m a n a g e m e n l t c r e u u |
"s " t r o n g |
| R i k l t s c o n r o s : C d i i k t r e r s M k i k t a r e r s A L M / C U d i i i k ( P ) t n e r r n g r s w R i i k e s e r v n g r s N C i k t t a a r s R i e n s r a n c e u |
"s " t r o n g "s " t r o n g "s " t r o n g "a d " t e q a e u "s " t r o n g "s " t r o n g "s " t r o n g |
| E i R i k m e r g n g s M t a n a g e m e n |
"s " t r o n g |
| G 's R i k d l r o u p s m o e ( ) T E R M |
"s " t r o n g |
| S i R i k t t r a e g c s M t a n a g e m e n |
"s " t r o n g |
| E i R i k t n e r p r s e s M ( E R M ) t a n a g e m e n |
"s " t r o n g |
"We now consider TPG's ERM to be strong following the recent developments toward a harmonized ERM framework at group level. We think it is unlikely that TPG will experience losses that are in excess of its risk tolerance. ERM is of very high importance to the rating on TPG, which operates in complex and potentially volatile business lines and is highly exposed to the competitive German insurance market. The major factors supporting our overall ERM assessment are the group's strong risk management culture, strong risk controls for the main risks, strong risk models, and strong strategic risk management."
Source: Standard & Poor´s, Rating Report, 28 September 2012
74
Talanx Risk Management Workshop, London, 26 June 2013
The Level III Review analyses in detail the Insurer's Economic Capital Model
76
ERM Level III assessment of Standard & Poor's could trigger capital saving for the Group
This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based on certain assumptions, expectations and opinions of the management of Talanx AG (the "Company") or cited from third-party sources. These statements are, therefore, subject to certain known or unknown risks and uncertainties. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond the Company's control, affect the Company's business activities, business strategy, results, performance and achievements. Should one or more of these factors or risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results, performance or achievements of the Company may vary materially from those expressed or implied as being expected, anticipated, intended, planned, believed, sought, estimated or projected.in the relevant forward-looking statement.
The Company does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does the Company accept any responsibility for the the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. The Company neither intends, nor assumes any obligation, to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those anticipated.
Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by the Company as being accurate.Presentations of the company usually contain supplemental financial measures (e.g., return on investment, return on equity, gross/net combined ratios, solvency ratios) which the Company believes to be useful performance measures but which are not recognised as measures under International Financial Reporting Standards, as adopted by the European Union ("IFRS"). Therefore, such measures should be viewed as supplemental to, but not as substitute for, balance sheet, statement of income or cash flow statement data determined in accordance with IFRS. Since not allcompanies define such measures in the same way, the respective measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures used by other companies. This presentation is dated as of 26 June 2013. Neither the delivery of this presentation nor any further discussions of the Company with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of the Company since such date. This material is being delivered in conjunction with an oral presentation by the Company and should not be taken out of context.
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