Earnings Release • May 7, 2020
Earnings Release
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Q1 2020 Results 7 May 2020
Dr Immo Querner, CFO
Q1 2020: Group net income of EUR 223m impacted by EUR 313m corona-related claims
GWP grow by 6.4% (curr.-adj. +6.4%) – driven by Reinsurance and Industrial Lines
EBIT: EUR 313m claims (EUR 163m thereof overshooting the aggregate quarterly large loss budget), EUR 60m losses on investments, EUR 7m PVFP1 impairment
Aggregate net income impact of EUR 133m – partially compensated by realised net gains and positive one-offs
Group net income of EUR 223m (-5.1%) – Group RoE at 9.0%, above minimum target
2020 Group net income outlook withdrawn on 21 April due to uncertain environment
Resilient Solvency II ratio (excl. transitional) within upper half of target range (150 - 200%)
Note: Approx. 90% of EUR 313m corona-related claims have been incurred but not reported as of 31 March 2020 1 PVFP: Present Value of Future Profits (German Life business)
Agenda
| EURm | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross written premiums (GWP) | 12,467 | 11,716 | +6% | |
| Net premiums earned | 8,354 | 7,842 | +7% | |
| Net underwriting result | (425) | (357) | (19%) | |
| thereof P/C | 1 | 143 | (99%) | |
| thereof Life | (427) | (500) | +15% | |
| Net investment income | 903 | 988 | (9%) | |
| Other income / expenses |
81 | (15) | n.m. | |
| Operating result (EBIT) | 559 | 616 | (9%) | |
| Financing interests | (51) | (45) | (12%) | |
| Taxes on income | (116) | (160) | +28% | |
| Net income before minorities | 393 | 411 | (4%) | |
| Non-controlling interests | (170) | (176) | +4% | |
| Net income after minorities | 223 | 235 | (5%) |
| Combined ratio | 99.8% | 96.8% | +3.0%pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax ratio | 22.7% | 28.0% | (5.3%pts) | |
| Return on equity | 9.0% | 10.3% | (1.3%pts) | |
| Return on investment |
2.7% | 3.2% | (0.5%pts) |
GWP growth driven by P/C Reinsurance (+EUR 592m) and Industrial Lines (+EUR 279m). No currency effect
Technical result impacted by corona-related claims of EUR 313m and EUR 7m PVFP impairment
Q1 2020 includes EUR 66m write-downs on equities and net EUR 20m unrealised losses on hedging instruments; partially offset by higher realised gains on bonds in P/C Reinsurance; resilience due to low-beta profile
Positive swings in currency translation (+EUR 55m) and deposit accounting (+EUR 25m)
Higher share of profits from lower-tax foreign operations
1 Realised net gains / losses on fixed income and real estate investments (net losses on equities and derivatives included in corona-related effects). Group excluding German Life business. Largest part realised in P/C Reinsurance. A portion of the realised gains would have occurred in a normalised quarter as well
2 EUR 7m deconsolidation gain in German Life
3 Includes EUR 7m deconsolidation gain in German Life (tax-free) and EUR 15m one-time tax effects in P/C Reinsurance and Corporate Operations
| Industrial Lines |
Retail Germany P&C |
Retail Germany Life |
Retail International |
Rein surance |
Corporate Operations |
Talanx Group |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corona-related claims |
(34) | (31) | (20) | (220) | (8) | (313) | Accounting impact of |
|
| Thereof absorbed by otherwise unused large loss budget |
+26 | +124 | +150 | Q1 claims: EUR 163m |
||||
| Net investment income |
(33) | (9) | (7) | (10) | (60) | |||
| Total EBIT impact |
(41) | (40) | (7)1 | (27) | (106) | (8) | (229) | |
| Group net income impact |
(39) | (28) | (5)1 | (18) | (38) | (5) | (133) | |
| Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Group net income impact after taxes and minorities |
1 PVFP (Present Value of Future Profits) impairment
Large losses: Substantial share of corona losses absorbed by otherwise unused 1 large loss budget in Industrial Lines and Reinsurance
| Net losses Talanx Group in EURm, Q1 2020 (Q1 2019) |
Industrial Lines | Retail Germany | Retail International |
∑ Primary Insurance |
+ = Reinsurance |
Talanx Group |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bush Fires New South Wales, Australia [Jan.] | 12.7 | 12.7 | 22.4 | 35.1 | |||
| Hurricanes Ciara, Elsa, Sabine, Europe [Feb.] |
4.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 13.7 | 17.6 | 31.3 | |
| Hailstorm Victoria, Australia [Jan.] |
12.4 | 12.4 | 15.1 | 27.5 | |||
| Tornado Nashville, USA [Mar.] | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 | ||||
| Flood East Coast, China [Feb.] |
0.6 | 0.6 | 8.5 | 9.1 | |||
| Sum NatCat | 43.0 (40.5) |
8.5 (7.0) | 0.6 (3.4) |
52.1 (50.9) | 63.6 (40.3) | 115.7 (91.2) |
|
| Fire/Property | 6.0 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | |||
| Credit | |||||||
| Marine | |||||||
| Aviation | |||||||
| Casualty | |||||||
| Cyber | |||||||
| Sum other large losses | 6.0 (27.2) |
0.0 (0.0) | 0.1 (0.0) |
6.1 (27.2) |
0.0 (18.6) |
6.1 (45.8) | 5.9%pts total |
| Corona losses | 34.4 dd |
31.0 dd | 20.0 dd | 92.9 dd |
220.0 dd |
312.9 | impact on CR |
| Total large losses | 83.4 (67.7) |
39.5 (7.0) | 20.7 (3.4) d |
151.1 (78.1) | 283.6 (59.0) |
434.7 (137.0) |
|
| Pro-rata large loss budget |
75.2 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 90.0 | 188.0 | 278.0 | |
| FY large loss budget | 300.6 | 29.5 | 9.0 | 360.1 | 975.0 | 1,335.1 | |
| Impact on CR: materialised large losses | 11.5%pts (10.7%pts) | 11.4%pts (2.0%pts) | 2.4%pts (0.4%pts) | 7.7%pts (4.2%pts) | 8.5%pts (2.0%pts) | 8.2%pts (2.9%pts) | Corresponds to |
| Impact on CR: large loss budget | 10.4%pts (10.9%pts) | 2.1%pts (1.7%pts) | 0.3%pts (0.2%pts) | 4.6%pts (4.3%pts) | 5.6%pts (6.0%pts) | 5.2%pts (5.3%pts) | EUR 163m |
| Corona impact on CR above pro-rata budget |
1.1%pts | 8.9%pts | 2.3%pts | 3.4%pts | 2.9%pts | 3.1%pts | accounting impact of corona claims |
Note: Definition "large loss": in excess of EUR 10m gross in either Primary Insurance or Reinsurance. EUR 7.5m large losses (net) in Corporate Operations in Q1 2020 Primary Insurance (Q1 2019: EUR 0.0m). No corona-related absorption of large loss budget in Retail Germany, Retail International and Corporate Operations.
Note: This page highlights only core markets plus Italy for Retail International. Turkey Q1 2020 EBIT of EUR 3m (vs. EUR 2m in Q1 2019). Ergo Sigorta acquisition in Turkey fully included in Q1 2020, not included in Q1 2019 1 Q1 2020 combined ratio as if no corona losses above large loss budget had occurred in Industrial Lines and Reinsurance
Agenda
13 Q1 2020 Results, 7 May 2020
| EURm, IFRS | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary investment income | 862 | 870 | (1%) | |
| thereof current interest income | 699 | 691 | +1% | Ordinary investment income largely unchanged |
| thereof income from real estate | 74 | 71 | +5% | |
| Extraordinary investment income | 30 | 111 | (73%) | Strong increase in realised net gains mainly related to portfolio |
| Realised net gains / losses on investments | 197 | 84 | 135% | changes in Reinsurance; as usual, some realised gains to fund |
| Write-ups / write-downs on investments | (98) | (38) | (158%) | annual build-up in Zinszusatzreserve under German accounting |
| Unrealised net gains / losses on investments | (69) | 65 | n.m. | Write-downs mainly on equities due to the 20% price decrease trigger |
| Other investment expenses | (29) | (23) | (25%) | Significant unrealised losses on interest rate hedging instruments |
| Income from assets under own management | 822 | 920 | (11%) | in German Life |
| Interest income on funds withheld and contract deposits | 81 | 68 | +20% | |
| Income from investment contracts | 1 | 0 | +184% | |
| Total: Net investment income | 903 | 988 | (9%) | |
| Assets under own management | 122,678 | 116,574 | +5% | Assets under own management unchanged versus 31 December 2019 (EUR 122.6bn) |
| Net return on investment1 | 2.7% | 3.2% | (0.5%pts) | |
| Current return on investment2 | 2.6% | 2.8% | (0.2%pts) |
1 Net return on investment: Income from assets under own management dividend by average assets under own management
2 Current return on investment: Income from investments under own management (excl. (un-)realized gains/losses, excl. impairments/appreciation) in relation to average investments under own management
Note: Peers comprise Allianz, Axa, Generali, Mapfre, Munich Re, Swiss Re, VIG, Zurich. Own calculations based on FY 2019 annual reports or results presentations. Fixed income ratings partly approximated. Iso risk lines represent average rating, standard formula, internal model, and portfolio management calculations
Shareholders' equity
| Shareholders' equity declined to EUR 9,716m, which is EUR 433m, or 4%, below the level of Dec 2019 |
|
|---|---|
| Negative OCI reflects corona-induced capital market movements mainly on bond positions |
|
| in EUR | 31 Dec | 31 Mar | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | Abs. | % | |
| Book value per share | 40.15 | 38.43 | 1.72 | -4.3 |
| excl. goodwill | 35.78 | 34.30 | 1.48 | -4.1 |
Note: Figures restated on the basis of IAS 8
Unrealised gains of EUR 11.1bn – EUR 2.64 per share of off-balance sheet 3 reserves attributable to shareholders
Δ market value vs. book value
Note: Shareholder contribution estimated based on historical profit sharing pattern
Note: Solvency II ratio relates to HDI Group as the regulated entity. The chart does not contain the effect of transitional measure. Solvency II ratio including transitional measure for 31 Dec 2019: 246%
Estimation of stress impact1
1 Estimated solvency ratio changes in case of stress scenarios (stress applied on both Eligible Own Funds and capital requirement, approximation for loss absorbing capacity of deferred taxes) 2 Interest rate stresses based on non-parallel shifts of the interest rate curve based on EIOPA approach
3 The credit spreads are calculated as spreads over the swap curve (credit spread stresses include simultaneous stress on government bonds)
Overall moderate sensitivity to various stress scenarios – above target range for all sensitivities
In view of the ongoing corona pandemic and the considerable uncertainty around how the economic and capital markets environment will develop, the Talanx Group withdrew the outlook for the financial year 2020 on 21 April 2020. The previous net income target of between "more than EUR 900 million" and EUR 950 million is subject to too many uncertainties to be maintained.
Segments Investments / Capital Outlook 2020 Appendix 1 Group Highlights Q1 2020 2 3 4 5 Additional Information Risk Management
Strong EBIT increase of 20% – driven by excellent P/C results at Warta and HDI Italy
EBIT decrease due to lower investment result by HDI Brazil
Note: EBIT margin reflects a Talanx Group view
EURm, IFRS 2020 2019
Note: EBIT margin reflects a Talanx Group view
| Industrial Lines | Retail Germany P/C | Retail Germany Life | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURm, IFRS | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | |
| P&L | ||||||||||
| Gross written premiums | 2,575 | 2,296 | +12% | 774 | 782 | (1%) | 1,075 | 1,104 | (3%) | |
| Net premiums earned | 726 | 634 | +14% | 348 | 355 | (2%) | 812 | 812 | (0%) | |
| Net underwriting result | (11) | (18) | +39% | (13) | 4 | n.m. | (270) | (363) | +25% | |
| Net investment income | 34 | 71 | (52%) | 14 | 28 | (49%) | 304 | 401 | (24%) | |
| Operating result (EBIT) | 30 | 35 | (15%) | (3) | 30 | n.m. | 36 | 30 | +16% | |
| Net income after minorities | 17 | 23 | (24%) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Key ratios | ||||||||||
| Combined ratio non-life insurance and reinsurance |
101.6% | 102.9% | (1.3%pts) | 103.8% | 99.3% | +4.5%pts | - | - | - | |
| Expense ratio | 18.0% | 19.8% | (1.9%pts) | 36.7% | 37.6% | (0.9%pts) | - | - | - | |
| Loss ratio | 83.6% | 83.0% | +0.6%pts | 67.1% | 61.7% | +5.4%pts | - | - | - | |
| Return on investment | 1.5% | 3.3% | (1.8%pts) | 1.4% | 2.8% | (1.4%pts) | 2.4% | 3.3% | (0.9%pts) |
| Retail International | P/C Reinsurance | Life/Health Reinsurance |
Group | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURm, IFRS | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Change |
| P&L | 9 | |||||||||||
| Gross written premiums | 1,513 | 1,617 | (6%) | 4,986 | 4,394 | +13% | 1,989 | 1,979 | +1% | 12,467 | 11,716 | +6% |
| Net premiums earned | 1,341 | 1,413 | (5%) | 3,338 | 2,930 | +14% | 1,753 | 1,681 | +4% | 8,354 | 7,842 | +7% |
| Net underwriting result | 3 | 15 | (79%) | (2) | 112 | n.m. | (129) | (108) | (20%) | (425) | (357) | (19%) |
| Net investment income | 90 | 91 | (2%) | 298 | 243 | +23% | 174 | 162 | +7% | 903 | 988 | (9%) |
| Operating result (EBIT) | 75 | 73 | +3% | 305 | 340 | (10%) | 123 | 113 | +8% | 559 | 616 | (9%) |
| Net income after minorities | 43 | 42 | +2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 223 | 235 | (5%) |
| Key ratios | ||||||||||||
| Combined ratio non-life insurance and reinsurance |
96.6% | 94.7% | 1.9%pts | 99.8% | 95.7% | +4.0%pts | - | - | - | 99.8% | 96.8% | +3.0%pts |
| Expense ratio | 29.3% | 28.3% | +1.0%pts | 29.9% | 29.9% | ±0.0%pts | - | - | - | 28.6% | 28.9% | (0.3%pts) |
| Loss ratio | 67.2% | 66.3% | +0.9%pts | 70.1% | 66.2% | +3.9%pts | - | - | - | 71.4% | 68.1% | +3.3%pts |
| Return on investment | 3.0% | 3.4% | (0.4%pts) | 3.2% | 2.8% | +0.4%pts | 3.7% | 4.1% | (0.5%pts) | 2.7% | 3.2% | (0.5%pts) |
Investment strategy unchanged – 95% of bonds are investment grade
Note: Percentages may not add up due to rounding. "Below BBB and n.r." includes non-rated bonds
| Country | Rating | Sovereign | Semi Sovereign |
Financial | Corporate | Covered | Other | Total | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | BBB- | 2,895 | - | 689 | 497 | 419 | - | 4,500 | ||||||||
| Brazil | BB- | 346 | - | 58 | 224 | - | 12 | 640 | ||||||||
| Mexico | BBB | 184 | 1 | 133 | 304 | - | - | 622 | ||||||||
| Russia | BBB | 314 | 13 | 36 | 200 | - | - | 563 | ||||||||
| Hungary | BBB | 489 | - | 17 | 13 | 26 | - | 544 | ||||||||
| South Africa | BB+ | 98 | - | 3 | 78 | - | 1 | 180 | ||||||||
| Turkey | BB- | 125 | - | 16 | 32 | 4 | - | 178 | ||||||||
| Portugal | BBB | 35 | - | 25 | 41 | 1 | - | 102 | ||||||||
| Other BBB+ | 100 | - | 74 | 90 | - | - | 264 | |||||||||
| Other BBB | 195 | 71 | 93 | 112 | - | - | 471 | |||||||||
| Other <bbb< th=""> | 254 | 49 | 95 | 171 | - | - | 568 | </bbb<>254 | 49 | 95 | 171 | - | - | 568 | ||
| Total | 5,036 | 133 | 1,239 | 1,762 | 450 | 13 | 8633 | |||||||||
| in % of total investments under own management | 4.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | ~0.0% | 7.0% | |||||||||
| in % of total Group assets | 2.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | ~0.0% | 4.9% |
Dec 2019 Solvency II Ratio (net of transitional) improved to 211% (Dec 2018: 209%). Per 31 March 2020 within upper half of target range (150 – 200%)
84% of Eligible Own Funds in Solvency II View are covered by unrestricted Tier 1 capital. Tier 1 coverage of SCR stands at strong 180%
Decline in credit spread sensitivity reflects high quality investment portfolio, model approval for dynamic volatility adjuster in P/C and improved level of diversification
Note: In the entire presentation, calculations of Solvency II Capital Ratios are based on a 99.5% confidence level, including volatility adjustments without the effect of the applicable transitional – if not explicitly stated differently
TERM 2019 results – Comfortable capital position from all angles 5
Risk calculated with the full internal model including operational risk
Eligible Own Funds, i.e. Basic Own Funds (including hybrids and surplus funds as well as non-controlling interests) including haircut effects
Note: Group Solvency II Ratios including transitional (i.e. Regulatory View): Dec 2019: 246%; Dec 2018: 252%. Calculations of Solvency II Capital Ratios are based on a 99.5% confidence level, including volatility adjustments and excluding the effect of applicable transitional – if not explicitly stated differently. TERM: Talanx Enterprise Risk Model
TERM 2019 results – Development of Solvency II ratio (excl. transitional) 5
EOF
SCR
| Operating and economic effects | 1,708 |
|---|---|
| Taxes | (339) |
| Other | (52) |
| Other (including tax) | (391) |
| Market variances | 242 |
| Other, including holding costs | (68) |
| Debt costs | (191) |
| Operating variances in-force business | 366 |
| Expected in-force contribution | 1,144 |
| New business contribution | 607 |
| Operating impact | 1,857 |
| In EURm |
and consolidation Note: structure according to CFO-Forum working group recommendation. Allocation of management expenses to in-force and new business according to the proportion of claims provisions. Stated amount of taxes without Primary Life (taxes of Primary Life already included in operating impact).
"Other" considers revaluation of other assets and liabilities
Note: "Opening adjustments" reflects model changes. "Change in eligibility restrictions" mainly comprises haircut effects (e.g. minorities). "Capital management" includes dividend payments
5
Note: Figures show risk categories for Talanx Group including non-controlling interests. Solvency capital requirement determined according to 99.5% security level for the Economic View, based on Basic Own Funds (BOF).
Significant diversification between risk categories – market risk at 43% (tail-VaR contribution) well below the 50% threshold
| Economic view | |
|---|---|
| in EURm | |
| Talanx IFRS equity |
16,610 |
| Goodwill and intangible assets | (1,998) |
| Revaluation effects | 4,159 |
| Surplus funds | 1,741 |
| Talanx excess of assets over liabilities |
20,513 |
| Subordinated liabilities (incl. minority interests) | 3,672 |
| Own shares | 0 |
| Forseeable dividends, distributions and charges |
(799) |
| Talanx basic own funds before deductions |
23,386 |
| BOF 23,386 BOF CAR = = = 258% SCR 9,062 BOF |
SCRBOF
Solvency II ratio HDI Group (excluding transitional) Talanx basic own funds before deductions 23,386 HDI V.a.G. (extension of Talanx Group to HDI Group) 2,194 in EURm HDI basic own funds 25,580 Non-available own-funds items (Haircut) (6,241) Other (62) Own funds for FCIIF, IORP and entities included 142 HDI Group total eligible own funds (EOF) 19,419 Ancillary own funds 0 Total available own funds (AOF) 19,419 Effects from tiering restrictions 0
SII Ratio =
$$
\frac{\text{EOF}}{\text{SCR}_{\text{EOF}}} = \frac{19,419}{9,224} = 211\%
$$
Haircut on minorities and HDI solo funds mark the key difference between both own funds concepts
FCIIF – Financial Credit Institutions and Investmend Firms; IORP – Insitutions for Occupational Retirement Provisions
Strong Solvency II Ratio is dominated by unrestricted Tier 1 capital
Carsten Werle, CFA, Head of IR Phone: +49 511 3747-2231 E-mail: [email protected]
Anna Färber, Event Management
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: +49 511 3747-2227
You can reach us also via video conference
This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based on certain assumptions, expectations and opinions of the management of Talanx AG (the "Company") or cited from third-party sources. These statements are, therefore, subject to certain known or unknown risks and uncertainties. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond the Company's control, affect the Company's business activities, business strategy, results, performance and achievements. Should one or more of these factors or risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results, performance or achievements of the Company may vary materially from those expressed or implied as being expected, anticipated, intended, planned, believed, sought, estimated or projected.in the relevant forward-looking statement.
The Company does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does the Company accept any responsibility for the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. The Company neither intends, nor assumes any obligation, to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those anticipated.
Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by the Company as being accurate. Presentations of the company usually contain supplemental financial measures (e.g., return on investment, return on equity, gross/net combined ratios, solvency ratios) which the Company believes to be useful performance measures but which are not recognised as measures under International Financial Reporting Standards, as adopted by the European Union ("IFRS"). Therefore, such measures should be viewed as supplemental to, but not as substitute for, balance sheet, statement of income or cash flow statement data determined in accordance with IFRS. Since not all companies define such measures in the same way, the respective measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures used by other companies. This presentation is dated as of 7 May 2020. Neither the delivery of this presentation nor any further discussions of the Company with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of the Company since such date. This material is being delivered in conjunction with an oral presentation by the Company and should not be taken out of context.
Guideline on Alternative Performance Measures - For further information on the calculation and definition of specific Alternative Performance Measures please refer to the Annual Report 2019 Chapter "Enterprise management", pp. 24 and onwards, the "Glossary and definition of key figures" on pp. 250 as well as our homepage https://www.talanx.com/investor-relations/ueberblick/midterm-targets.aspx?sc\_lang=en
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