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SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2014
Jun 1, 2014
65792_rns_2014-06-01_5d641c81-257b-48ee-8371-42a3308a593b.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Select Harvests Limited (“SHV”) UBS Emerging Companies Food and Agribusiness Conference 2 June 2014
Disclaimer & Basis of Preparation
This presentation is provided for information purposes only and has been prepared using information provided by the company. The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Investors should consider their own individual investment and financial circumstances in relation to any investment decision.
Certain statements contained in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements or statements about future matters that are based upon information known and assumptions made as of the date of this presentation. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from any future results or performance expressed, predicted or implied by the statements contained in this presentation.
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SHV – THE BASE BUSINESS TODAY
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Australia’s largest vertically integrated nut & health food company
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Australia’s 2nd largest almond grower and exporter – approx. 16% of Australia’s almond crop
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Leading processor, manufacturer and marketer of nut products, health snacks & muesli
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Supplies retail and industrial markets, domestically and internationally
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Key assets
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Geographically diverse portfolio of mature, cash generating almond orchards (73% mature - average age 11 years )
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State of the art Carina West Almond Processing Facility (commissioned 2008)
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Portfolio of market leading nut and health food brands (Lucky - No.1 Cooking Nut, Sunsol - No.4 Muesli)
High quality cash generating assets exposed to the strong fundamentals of the global almond market and healthy eating categories
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Growth – Almond Market
Tonnes
World Almond Supply vs Demand
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1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Supply Consumption
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Almond prices are up and consumption still continues to grow
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Growth - Industry
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Industry Growth
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Australian Almond production increased by 60% in CY2013
Export Dominance
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In CY2013, Almonds became the 1[st] Australian horticultural industry to earn A$300M p.a. in export revenue
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In CY2014, this is expected to be circa A$500M
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Domestic Consumption
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In CY2013, Australian domestic consumption increased by 9.2%
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Health Benefits – World’s Largest Study on Nut Consumption & Mortality (New England Journal of Medicine)
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120,000 people over 30 years
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Those who ate 30 grams of nuts/day had a 20% lower death rate
Source: In a Nutshell, Almond Board of Australia
Almonds are a significant & growing industry in Australia – production, consumption, exports
5
Costs - SHV Orchards
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SHV FY2014 Horticulture Costs Forecast Actual by Percentage
Others
14% Labour
19%
Harvest
11%
Fert & Chem
Fixed 20%
11%
Water
6% Bee
Energy 5%
14%
Labour Fert & Chem Bee Energy Water Fixed Harvest Others
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A significant portion of our horticultural costs are fixed - earnings are highly leveraged to crop yield and almond prices
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Industry Outlook - US Drought
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Drought issues remain serious
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Some counties have banned water exports
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Low State Government water allocations
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Zero Federal Government water allocations
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Evidence of marginal orchards being removed
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US Drought intensifying – 25% Exceptional Drought
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Almond Industry Outlook – US Crop
US Crop
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Supply
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US 2013 Crop est. 2.00 billion lbs - similar to 2012
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2014 Crops - Good pollination conditions in Spain and US
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Subjective Estimate - 1.95 billion pounds
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Objective Estimate 30 June 2014
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Demand
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Faster shipping program - Up 4% YTD
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US Domestic market - flat
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Exports – up 11%
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67% of total supply shipped
Forecast Carry-out - down 17% on 31 July 2013
US Drought – almond prices will remain firm in the outlook period
Source: Almond Board California – Almond Industry Position Report May 2014
8
SHV Outlook – SHV 2014 Almond Division Update
Harvest
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97% of crop has been harvested - conditions more challenging than last year due to wet weather
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VIC - complete
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SA - complete
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NSW - 94% complete
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Sales
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Approximately 68% sold
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Market and pricing remains firm (other tree nuts have followed similar pricing trends over last 12 months)
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Almond price estimates firm, at least A$8.30/kg / currency hedged at below 92 cents
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Operations
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Approximately 35% processed
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More challenging than last year due to insect damage and moisture content from wetter harvest conditions
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Crop estimate
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NSW crop - An update will be developed once crop has been freighted and sufficient volume processed to enable a reliable estimate to be prepared
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VIC and SA crop - trending towards 10% below estimate
Almond Division remains on track for a strong result in FY14
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SHV Outlook – SHV 2014 Food Division Update
Industrial
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Sales continue to grow YTD
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Continued demand from domestic and export customers
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New customers driving growth
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Consumer
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New Product concepts are being well received by customers
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Commodity price increases are being presented to major customers
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Operations
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Costs per kg are flat year on year
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Complaints remain low
Food Division remains on track to deliver FY14 result similar to FY13
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Risk Mitigation Initiatives
| Area | Action |
|---|---|
| Farming Practices | • Empowered farm management • Introduced Harvest guidelines to reduce weather exposure |
| Management Tools | • Great on-farm KPI’s & reporting • Introduction of Leaf Bomb Pressure Test technology |
| Processing Standards | • Re-introduction of LEAN manufacturing processes • Higher quality standards & testing across the business • Pasteuriser commissioned and operational |
| Labour Skill & Management | • Improved training of harvest contractors • Quality & productivity based remuneration for labour |
| Capex | • Investment in pasteuriser & freefall metal detectors • Investment in frost mitigation technology |
| Orchard Development | • Total review of existing orchard potential • Long term development plan inc. plant density & variety |
| Water | • Water purchase for NSW orchards • New water policy - exposure over 3 years (1/3 long term lease, 1/3 annual, 1/3 spot) |
| Frost mitigation | • Installed frost fans on more highly exposed orchards in NSW and VIC |
| Bees | • Long term Bee Supply Agreement - 3 years (Victorian orchards) |
Maximise: Yield, Price and Quality : the key earnings drivers
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SHV - Strategy towards 2018
Status
1. CONTROL CRITICAL MASS Secure the critical mass of nuts needed to maximize OF ALMONDS profitability and leverage the global almond opportunity.
Commenced
2. IMPROVE YIELD & CROP Improve yield and overall crop value by perfecting on-farm VALUE and farm to factory practices .
Commenced
3. BE BEST IN CLASS SUPPLY Continuously improve our supply chain, achieving high CHAIN quality, low cost and optimum capital utilisation.
Under Development
4. INVEST IN INDUSTRIAL & Allocate resources to leverage our trading skills and grow TRADING DIVISION sales in the industrial channel .
Under Development
5. TURN AROUND PACKAGED Develop a new model for the packaged food category that Commenced FOOD BUSINESS will deliver sustainable returns above the cost of capital .
6. FIX OUR SYSTEMS & PROCESSES
Develop the business systems and processes required to be a global industry leader .
Under Development
7 . ENGAGE WITH OUR PEOPLE & OUR STAKEHOLDERS
Engage with investors and our industry while developing the team required to be a global industry leader.
Commenced
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Growth Opportunities
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Almond Division
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Orchard acquisition - Continue to search for additional orchards and suitable acreage for future development
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Orchard replants - Replanted 150 acres last year. Will plant out 500 acres this winter
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Land Bank - Established a land bank to support future orchard development pipeline (2,500 acres available today)
- Recently acquired property at Euston NSW (near Robinvale VIC ) with 1,500 unplanted acres suitable for growing almonds
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Developing funding mechanisms to facilitate new greenfield opportunities
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Utilise by-product to generate energy to operate processing plant, and irrigation systems to generate significant savings
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Continuation of orchard technical product innovations and trials (biostimulants, cover crops, Bee hive pollen dosing system)
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Elevate the productivity of orchards to Top Quartile
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Review of field and fixed drying capacity
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Food Division
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Continue to value add by applying more complex process after blanching - sizing, roasting milling etc
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Maintain focus on value adding for confectioners, baking and cereal manufacturers
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Innovate by creating more complex specification
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Educate customers on commodities to facilitate commodity price increases
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Invest in Consumer Insights - established Innovation program and significantly increased project pipeline
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Development of Strategic growth platform for Health Food business ($400m Category in supermarkets growing at 20%)
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Expansion of Consumer Brands Export markets: SE Asia
Confident in fundamentals - continue to increase our exposure to the almond industry
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SHV - Summary
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SHV is well positioned
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Leadership - Sharper focus on delivering performance and improvement
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Industry - Healthy product with strong, historical & forecast long term growth prospects (8% p.a.)
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Scale - Australia is 2[nd] largest almond producer
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Countercyclical - To Californian Northern Hemisphere production
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Integrated business - Geographically diversified, strong market shares across the business
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Assets - Relatively new, globally competitive processing facility. Maturing orchards in sweet spot
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Opportunities - Increase volumes by leveraging advantages of integrated business model i.e. utilising production, processing and marketing capabilities and knowledge
Well positioned to benefit from almond industry fundamentals
Renewed focus on operational excellence and performance
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Thank you
Please direct any queries to:
Paul Thompson Paul Chambers Andrew Angus Managing Director Chief Financial Officer Investor Relations +61 3 9474 3544 +61 3 9474 3544 +61 402 823 757
Please note that Select Harvests will update its website shortly - a lot of the material regarding the rationale for almonds can be found there. www.selectharvests.com.au
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Appendix
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Why Almonds? - Australian Almond Industry
| Company | Orchards | Processing | Sales & Marketing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Select Harvests | 11,560 acres (4,680 ha) – 16% market share Vic, SA & NSW |
Primary Processing 30KT Robinvale Vic Value Added Processing Robinvale & Thomastown Vic |
Consumer, Foodservice & Industrial businesses Global Nut Trader |
| Olam | 30,000 acres (11,949 ha) – 42% market share Vic |
Primary Processing 40KT Carwarp Vic |
Consumer, Foodservice & Industrial businesses Global Nut Trader |
| Almondco (Simarloo) |
Nil direct 145 grower suppliers |
Primary Processing 30KT Renmark, SA Value Added Processing |
Consumer, Foodservice & Industrial businesses Global Almond Trader |
| Nut Producers Australia (Riverland Almonds) |
Yes – acreage unknown | Primary Processing 10KT Loxton, SA |
Consumer, Foodservice & Industrial businesses Almond & Pistachio Trader |
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Australia has 70,607 acres (28,586 ha) of almond orchards (Australian Almond Insights 2013-14, Almond Board of Australia).
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Table as at 30 May 2014
SHV is the only stock exchange listed, pure-play almond opportunity globally
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SHV – Snapshot Today
| SHV SEGMENTS |
ALMOND DIVISION | ALMOND DIVISION | FOOD DIVISION | FOOD DIVISION | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Functions As at 30/5/2014 |
Almond Orchards & Trading | Processing – Carina West |
Processing – Thomastown | Sales & Marketing | |
| Summary of Capability |
Almond Orchard Portfolio •Bearing -11,560 acres (4,680 hectares “ha”) •Planted -11,779 acres (4,769 ha) •Additional Plantable - 2,500 acres (1,012 ha) Global & Local Almond Trader |
Primary Processor •Up 30KT per annum •Robinvale Vic |
Value Added Processor •12KT per annum •Thomastown Vic |
Food Division Units •Consumer •Foodservice •Industrial •Local nut & seed trader |
|
| Key Attributes | Owned/Leased - Bearing •5,635 acres (2,281 ha) owned •4,498 acres (1,821 ha) leased Managed – Bearing •1,427 acres (578 ha) VIC Geographic Diversity – Bearing •6,352 acres (2,572 ha) VIC •4,528 acres (1,833 ha) NSW •680 acres (275 ha) SA Land Bank – Unplanted •2,500 acres (1,012 ha) |
Primary Processing •Hulling & Shelling •Inshell bagging •Bulk cartons & bags |
Value Added •Blanching •Slicing •Dicing •Meal •Pastes •Roasting •Blending |
Brands •Lucky: Cooking (No.1) •Sunsol: Muesli & Snacks •Soland: Health Food •Nuvit: Health Food •Renshaw: Industrial •Allinga Farms: Industrial Customers •Coles •Woolworths •Mars •Unilever •Export |
An integrated, export focussed agribusiness
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SHV - Orchards - Geographic Diversity
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Hillston
Robinvale to Hillston
Distance: 382 km
Drive Time: 4 hours
Loxton Griffith
Robinvale
Robinvale to Loxton
Distance: 250 km Robinvale to
Drive Time: 3 hours Griffith
Distance: 362km
Drive Time: 3.8
hours
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Geographic Diversity Limits exposure to:
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•Weather
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•Disease spread
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•Labour availability
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•Insect infestation
| Robinvale(Ouyen) | January | July |
|---|---|---|
| Temp | ||
| - Avge Min(DegC) | 15.7 | 4.3 |
| - Avge Max(DegC) | 32.4 | 15.2 |
| Avge Annual Rainfall(mm) | 333.5 | |
| Hillston | January | July |
| Temp | ||
| - Avge Min(DegC) | 18.3 | 3.7 |
| - Avge Max(DegC) | 33.4 | 15.2 |
| Avge Annual Rainfall(mm) | 370.7 | |
| Griffith | January | July |
| Temp | ||
| - Avge Min(DegC) | 17.4 | 3.4 |
| - Avge Max(DegC) | 33.2 | 14.5 |
| Avge Annual Rainfall(mm) | 381.6 | |
| Loxton | January | July |
| Temp | ||
| - Avge Min(DegC) | 14.6 | 3.8 |
| - Avge Max(DegC) | 31.8 | 15.8 |
| Avge Annual Rainfall(mm) | 261.0 |
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SHV - Orchard Profile - A Competitive Advantage
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SHV Company Orchards (Owned & Leased) - Age Profile (Years) - %
(as at 30 May 2014 - basis Feb 2014 Crop Harvest)
35.0% . .
17% of SHV 10% of SHV
Company Company Orchards
Orchards have passed peak
30.0% immature (15% economic maturity
in next year)
73% of SHV Company Orchards are in the economic
sweet spot - low capex & high cash generation
25.0%
LAND
20.0% BANK
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Tree Age (Years)
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As at 30 May 2014 Note: SHV’s WA orchards are excluded from this summary
As at 2014 Harvest, 73% of SHV Orchards are economically mature
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SHV - Orchard Portfolio
| ortfolio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHV Controlled Orchards | Bearing | Planted | ||
| Acres | Hectares | Acres | Hectares | |
| Owned Leased |
3,444 1,481 |
1,394 600 |
3,663 1,481 |
1,483 600 |
| Victoria | 4,925 | 1,994 | 5,144 | 2,083 |
| Owned Leased |
1,511 3,017 |
612 1,221 |
1,511 3,017 |
612 1,221 |
| NSW | 4,528 | 1,833 | 4,528 | 1,833 |
| Owned Leased |
680 - |
275 - |
680 - |
275 - |
| South Australia | 680 | 275 | 680 | 275 |
| Total Controlled Orchards Managed Orchards |
10,133 1,427 |
4,102 578 |
10,352 1,427 |
4,191 578 |
| Total Portfolio | 11,560 | 4,680 | 11,779 | 4,769 |
| Orchard Category Owned Leased Managed Orchards |
5,635 4,498 1,427 |
2,281 1,821 578 |
5,854 4,498 1,427 |
2,370 1,821 578 |
| Total Portfolio | 11,560 | 4,680 | 11,779 | 4,769 |
| Orchard Geography VIC NSW SA |
6,352 4,528 680 |
2,572 1,833 275 |
6,571 4,528 680 |
2,661 1,833 275 |
| Total Portfolio | 11,560 | 4,680 | 11,779 | 4,769 |
SHV has an additional 2,500 acres suitable for planting
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SHV - Food Division - Brand Summary
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Market leader in the cooking nut category.
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Cooking Nut product range: almonds, walnuts, cashews, hazelnuts, brazil nuts, pine nuts, pistachios, macadamias, sunflower seeds and pepitas (value share 36.5% in the MAT to Feb 2014)
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Snacking product range: portion control packs, Lucky Smart Snax and Lucky Snack Tubs.
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Distribution: major supermarkets and export markets including the Middle East, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
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Product range: nuts, dried fruit, legumes and pulses, cereals, grains, seeds, flour, muesli and organic foods.
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• Bulk and convenient packs.
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Distribution: health food stores and pharmacies nationally.
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Product range: muesli, dried fruit, nuts and snacks.
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Distribution: major supermarkets (muesli) and export markets including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia , Indonesia and the Pacific Rim.
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Product range: muesli, dried fruit, wholefoods, nuts and snacks.
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Distribution: Health aisle of major supermarkets and export markets including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Pacific Rim.
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Product range: almonds and other nuts, dried fruit, seeds, nut pastes and pralines.
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Bulk pack.
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Products sold to local and overseas food manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and re-packers.
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US Drought - Information Sources/References
- Australian Almond Board, 30 May 2014
Almond Insights
http://www.selectharvests.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Australian-Almond-Insights-2013-14.pdf
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“Information contained in this booklet provides industry stakeholders, government and those in the broader community with key statistics on the productive capacity, crop, markets and demand for Australian almonds”.
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San Jose Mercury News, 29 Mar 2014
California Drought: San Joaquin Valley sinking as farmers race to tap aquifer By Lisa M. Krieger
http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_25447586/california-drought-san-joaquin-valley-sinking-farmers-race
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“The rate of water loss over the past two years is the largest since the University of California started using NASA satellites to measure underground water reserves in 2003. The Central Valley's reserves are shrinking by 800 billion gallons a year…according to Jay Famiglietti, director of the University of California Center for Hydrologic Modeling”. The trends are alarming, the politics complex, but the science is rather simple: The Central Valley -- from Redding to Bakersfield -- is consuming twice as much groundwater as nature is returning through rain and snow”.
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Bloomberg News, 25 Feb 2014
Almond Drought Boosts India Sweets to Aussie Farms: Commodities By Megan Durisin
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-24/almond-drought-boosts-india-sweets-to-aussie-farms-commodities#p3
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“The worst California drought on record is forcing Jeff Schmiederer to spend $1.1 million on two new wells for his 1,200-acre almond orchard. Trees got so little water in 2013 that this year’s harvest may drop 25 percent, and the damage may be even worse in 2015”.
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The Economist, 22 Feb 2014
The drying of the West: Drought is forcing westerners to consider wasting less water
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21596955-drought-forcing-westerners-consider-wasting-less-water-drying-west?frsc=dg%7Cb
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“California’s drought—its worst in recorded history”.
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“Last month snowpack in the Sierras fell to 12% of average January levels. Rainfall has disappointed for three years. Lake Folsom, near Sacramento, has shrunk so far that an old gold-rush town has been exposed. The rainy season has six weeks or so to go, but there is little sign of respite. California is bracing itself for a brutal fire season”.
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“State officials have cut off supplies to water districts; their federal counterparts will soon follow suit. Some farmers who made the risky decision in past years to plant lucrative pistachio and almond trees, which require year-round watering, have had to bulldoze them. Others are fallowing farmland, or digging deeper to tap brackish groundwater, further depleting aquifers”.
BBC, 12 Feb 2014
Why are Almonds so Expensive By Peter Bowes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26118225
- “The state is suffering its worst drought since records began, over a century ago. There has been very little rain for the past three years and reservoir levels are dropping."They're at the lowest level we've seen for this time of the year probably in my lifetime," says Phippen
as much groundwater as nature is returning through rain and snow
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