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PostNL N.V. — Investor Presentation 2008
Dec 4, 2008
3878_iss_2008-12-04_a308c7f4-75f6-4be7-871a-6248145de4db.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Becoming stronger in challenging times
Peter BakkerCEO4 December 2008Analysts' Meeting
Analysts' Meeting 4 December 2008
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Becoming stronger in challenging times
TNT: becoming stronger in challenging times Group
Group Phase 1 delivered against strategic priorities
Significant cash shareholder returns
6
Dividend in cash (€ cent) Cash Returns to Shareholders
€ 3.9 billion of dividends and SBB from 6 December 2005 to 4 December 2008
Total dividend and SBB as percentage of total revenue from Q4 2005 to Q3 2008 was 12.2%
Focus on networks
7
Best-in-class performance in Express and Mail
Note: FedEx numbers are Nov-Nov; DPWN 2006 & 2007 figures adjusted for transfer of Parcels from Express to Mail; FX rates used: average rate 2007 €/USD 0.725; TNT 2006 & 2007 adjusted for transfer of Innight to Other Networks and allocation of non-allocated costs and € 110 million Master plan provision in 2007
Valuations have dropped radically
9
Global market capitalisation versus TNT's year-on-year change (%)
Group
Oil prices are high and increasingly volatile
WTI oil spot price (USD per barrel)
Group
Express volumes deteriorate further Group
Express underlying volumes 2008
Kilos, year on year change, in %, excl. working days impact*
Becoming stronger in challenging times
Three major trends directly affect our business
Group
1
- – Express (cyclical)
- –Mail (substitution)
Changing sentiment regarding deregulation in Mail 3
Business environment in 2009 under Group 1
pressure
Short-term focus for 2009/2010:
- y Aggressive cost restructuring
-
- Express: optimisation of air and road platforms, aggressive operations cost reduction
- -Mail Master plans
- yYield management
- yOutcome of CLA discussions Mail very important
- y Cash flow management
- -Reduction in working capital
- -Reduction in cash capital expenditure
- -Sale of real estate (if conditions are right)
Outlook 2008/2009 Group
2008
- y The Mail business continues to develop according to plan and its original forecast
- y The market developments in Q4 2008 show a further accelerated volume pressure on European (premium air) Express flows and most recently also on International Economy/road volumes
- y As mentioned TNT therefore expects its full year 2008 Express results to come in somewhat below the outlook given at Q3
2009
y Under the current extremely volatile business environment TNT will refrain from providing an outlook for the year 2009. TNT will in principle indicate its expectations on a quarterly basis, so for the first time at the publication of the full year 2008 figures on 16 February 2009 for Q1 2009
Mail liberalisation and consolidation3
- y Liberalisation Europe 1 January 2011 (accession countries 1 January 2013)
- y Dutch liberalisation postponed
- -No level playing field with Germany and the UK
- -Insufficient progress discussions competitors and unions
- yConsolidation provides opportunities
Express vision and strategy
Vision
Expand sustainable leading position in Europe and emerging markets
- • Expand and cost optimise current networks
- • Achieve profitable, above market growth
Strategy
-
- Seize growth opportunities offered by economic downturn
- •Economy / deferred products
- 2.Expand in emerging markets
-
- Strengthen global network
- •Intercontinental (air) alliances
-
- Seek higher-than-market growth:
- •Sector and regional focused sales
- • Broader product portfolio and service window extensions
- • Leverage strengths across geographies
Enabler: cost optimisation to improve platforms
Mail vision and strategy Mail
Vision
Become a leading European mail company, leveraging key strengths
- •Cost management
- •Business model redesign
- •Regulatory process management
- • Strategic market and product development
Strategy
-
- Manage costs
- •Master plans II / III
- •Alternative business models
-
- Further strengthening of our expansion strategy
- EMN
- •Incumbent improvement strategy
-
- Grow through New Business Development
- • Digital products, e-commerce fulfillment, financial services
-
- Grow in Parcels
- • Strengthen Benelux position, broaden European approach
Becoming stronger in challenging times
Group Current portfolio mix: strong platform
Balanced mix of cash generation and growth businesses
•With shared capabilities
There is more to the portfolio than just Mail and Express
- • Sector-specific networks (e.g. Innight, Fashion, Healthcare)
- •Parcels, Document Solutions
- •Value added services
& Original portfolio logic Current economic climate
Management focused on improving operations and capturing smart market opportunities
Combination of current cash generation and growth businesses is value-supporting
•Financing markets highly unreliable
Divestment likely to destroy value given today's valuations
TNT has a unique portfolio of BtB, BtC and CtC delivery solutions businesses and leverages its strong brand across all activities around the world. Our industry-leading performance, the can-do mentality of our people, the approach to running a company in a socially responsible way and the ability to entrepreneurially expand our network across products, sectors and geographies sets us apart from everyone else
Becoming stronger in challenging times
Current market environment requires prudent financial strategy
All share prices under severe pressure
•5 year / 10 year lows
26
• Share prices do not reflect fundamental and mid-term strategic value
Current markets for debt financing are unpredictable and unreliable
Current environment ... ... sets boundaries for financial strategy
-
- Financing arranged
-
- Focus on cash
-
- Keep current portfolio in good shape
- •Cost savings
- •Business opportunities
-
- Aim for stable dividend per share
Medium term objectives reviewed in 2009 in light of current volatile economy
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All figures 2008 are rounded based on the current outlook excluding the effect of any provisions related to the new Master plan initiatives in Mail and new cost optimisation programmes in Express
Summary TNT today: becoming stronger in challenging times
Warning about forward looking statements
Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events that depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we operate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this presentation and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.
Update TNT Express strategy: strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Marie-Christine LombardGroup Managing Director Express 4 December 2008Analysts' Meeting
Express to strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Evolution of the Express Market
Leverage Marketing and Sales capability and create global leadership in selected vertical markets
Optimise operational networks and achieve cost savings in all areas
Invest in Emerging Platforms, example South America
Conclusion
Express continues to pursue three strategic themes
Express to strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Evolution of the Express Market
Leverage Marketing and Sales capability and create global leadership in selected vertical markets
Optimise operational networks and achieve cost savings in all areas
Invest in Emerging Platforms, example South America
Conclusion
Apart from slower growth due to economic downturn…
Air and Road volumes (% change year on year, rebased to Q4 07 = 100)
Group
… as also seen in the air freight sector…
6
Freight Tonnes kilometres (FTK) development by region, in 2008
…we have seen a further shift from Express to Economy in 2008 …
… that is foreseen to continue in 2009/2010
…this trend is also evident on the intercontinental flows where the Economy Product growth outpaced Express
International volume growth, YTD Oct, %
Leadership in Europe …
B2B Express market, Domestic and Intra-Europe
…enables TNT to enlarge the potential addressable market
European B2B only: 2007 € billion
… and to expand in targeted industries with extended service offer
… leveraging from a comprehensive and unified global product portfolio for domestic and international
| S i e r v c e |
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G d d l i t t u a r a n e e e v e r y n e x • i b f 1 0 m o r n n g e o r e a m M h i d h 9 t u c w e r c o v e r a g e a n • |
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| 1 2 0 0 : |
G d d l i t t u a r a n e e e v e r y n e x • i b f 1 2 m o r n n g e o r e |
I d f i i d t t t t n u s r y r s m e g u a r a n e e • i l d l i b f 1 2 e c o n o m c a e e r e o r e v y ( ) d f i d d 2 3 d 4 o n e n e a y o r a y s , |
| N d d l i b f l t e x a y e v e r y e o r e c o s e • f b i o u s n e s s |
E i l d l i d f i d c o n o m c a e v e r y o n e n e • ( ) d 2 3 4 d b f a y o r a y s e o r e , l f b i c o s e o s n e s s u |
… and from our Special Services platform consisting of different solutions
New regional marketing and sales structure to enable further growth in sales …
Express to strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Evolution of the Express Market
Leverage Marketing and Sales capability and create global leadership in selected vertical markets
Optimise operational networks and achieve cost savings in all areas
Invest in Emerging Platforms, example South America
Conclusion
Renewed marketing focus
TNT Express revenues concentrated in limited number of industries
Percent of total revenues
Marketing database enables us to identify new preferred customers in focus verticals
We offer Value Added Solutions in eachfocus vertical
| I b d n o u n |
F i i h d d t n s e p r o u c s |
A f M k t t e r a r e |
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| e v i t o m o t u A |
I b d i l t n o u n m a e r a s • t m a n a g e m e n A i t t u o m o v e • l t t c o n r o c e n r e s |
A f k t t e r m a r e • E t p a r s p r e s s x |
|
| g n i t u p m o C |
I d t t n e g r a e • i D E t r e c p r e s s x F d S k t o r w a r o c • i L t o c a o n s |
F d S k t o r w a r o c • i L t o c a o n s R t e u r n s • E p r e s s x |
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| h c e t - d e M |
I D E • i l H t o s p a • E x p r e s s |
k d W e e e n • l l i t c o e c o n s i h l h A t s a n e a • h b c a r e u |
|
Segmentation to increase sales effectiveness and offer appropriate customer services
Below-the-line we're quite active
Number of activities per week, YTD week 44, Express division
Even in 2008 we have increased our customer base
Integrated operations revenues*, € million, YTD October 2008
Pricing based on systematic yield management and thorough research
We measure customer satisfaction and takecorrective action
Customer Loyalty Measurement research in 56 countriesThousands
Cockpit to understand 26 attributes measured in 7 clusters that drive overall satisfaction and loyalty
What should this bring us in an economic downturn?
| M k t a r e |
T N T |
|
|---|---|---|
| D i t o m e s c |
R l i l i l i t t t e a v e y r e s e n o • i d t e c o n o m c o n r n w u |
i d f l l k d N t e w c u s o m e r s g a n e r o m s m a w e a e n e • i i t t c o m p e o n G h l b l d j t t t r o w a g o a a n m a o r a c c o u n s • h h i l i i t t t t r o u g s r o n g v e r c a p r o p o s o n s |
| C b d r o s s- o r e r |
l i i l i R t t t e a v e r e s e n o • i d t e c o n o m c o w n u r n |
R i l i h f t t t e g o n a a c c o u n e a m s o g a n s a r e- o • l l f l i- t t t t w a e o m u c o u n r y c u s o m e r s M d- b d d i i f d t o r e r o a a s e r e c n- e e s • |
| I E t n r a r o p e u - |
S h i f f i d t t r o m a r o r o a • d i t a n c s o m e r s s n g u u f t m o r e e c o n o m y y p e o d t p r o u c s |
G h f d b d b t t t r o w o e c o n o m y p r o u c a s e o n e s • d k h f E t t t r o a n e o r a e e p e n s e o p r e s s w x x l d i l d l f i t t e a n g o o w e r r e v e n u e s a n e s s p r o p e r k g |
| I i l t t t n e r c o n n e n a |
P i d i t r c e p r e s s u r e u e o a r • d i t a n s e a o e r c a p a c v y |
S l i h i i i i i t t t t e e c v e g r o w u s n g e x s n g c a p a c y n • h k t t e m a r e b d h b l i b I t t n o u n g r o w y e v e r a g n g c u s o m e r a s e • i C h i d i d i l I B n n a, n a a n r a z |
Express to strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Evolution of the Express Market
Leverage Marketing and Sales capability and create global leadership in selected vertical markets
Optimise operational networks and achieve cost savings in all areas
Invest in Emerging Platforms, example South America
Conclusion
Cost structure of TNT Express*
Summary of the current, scientific costs variability analysis & knowledge
Cost impact of volume reduction
Volume dependent cost savings Group
- yContingencies up to € 120 million per year
- yAssumes volumes Q1 09 and Q2 09 at Q4 08 decline
- yQ3 09 and Q4 09 flat on average over second half of 2008
Structured network optimisation addresses 68% of the total costs of TNT Express and targets…
… country PUD optimisation via reduction of number of rounds and tariff setting and adapting to potential volume fluctuations
Illustrative annualised costs changes versus 2008 (%)
Productivity targets set at depot level…
… optimisation of country linehauls by reduction of 3% of kilometers driven and potential further adaption in case of volume fluctuation
Illustrative annualised costs changes versus 2008 (%)
Warehouse / hubs optimisation based on a Lean project piloted in the UK
- y European Lean programme aimed at increasing productivity and quality in Express network. It consists of three elements:
- -Process improvements - workforce planning (example) - cultural change
- y Pilot in UK hub resulted in productivity improvements:
- --20% of working hours, -5% cost savings on labour costs (temp labour)
… further roll-out in 6 largest European countries aims at achieving -4% of man-hours and +4% of pieces/man-hour
Illustrative man-hours efficiency versus 2008 (%)
… adapting our air network and commercial airline costs to lower air volumes
Illustrative annualised costs changes versus 2008 (%)
… our European Road Network is optimised with a newly rolled-out operations control system
Illustrative annualised potential cost changes versus 2008 (%)
… recap of cost savings initiatives
Cost changes versus 2008
| S l i t t r u c u r a s a v n g s |
d i E t p e c e s a n g s x v ( ) i i l l i E n m o n u r o s |
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2 0 1 0 |
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7 3 1 0 0 - |
1 2 0 1 4 0 - |
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| ( ) M k i d l i i i i t t t t t a r e n g a n s a e s e r r o r y o p m s a o n |
0 7 1 - |
0 1 1 5 - |
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| ( ) C i l i i t t t u s o m e r s e r v c e c e n r a s a o n |
1 0 1 5 - |
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| O h i i i i t t t t e r p r o c r e m e n n a e s u v |
1 0 1 5 - |
2 0 2 5 - |
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| O h i i i f l f i t t t t t e r o p m s a o n o c e n r a u n c o n s |
1 0 1 5 - |
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| l l T t t t o a s r u c u r a |
* 9 0 1 2 5 - |
* 1 7 0 2 1 0 - |
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| O i l l l i t p e r a o n a o m e e e r a g e s a n g s v u v v |
1 2 0 |
* Objectives include the € 100 – 125 million announced previously (of which ~€ 60 million in 2009)
Express continues to pursue three strategic themes
Express to strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Evolution of the Express Market
Leverage Marketing and Sales capability and create global leadership in selected vertical markets
Optimise operational networks and achieve cost savings in all areas
Invest in Emerging Platforms, example South America
Conclusion
TNT has great plans in South America
South America has fast growing economies and express markets and is relatively under-penetrated by TNT's global competitors
Through our acquisition of Mercurio, TNT is now the largest express player on the South American continent and has an opportunity to build a sustainable leadership position
Following the stabilisation of Mercurio we will be taking a number of bold steps to consolidate our position on the continent
South America generates a higher GDP growth than the advanced economies, even during turbulent years
GDP growth1 based on October IMF outlook
Evolution of the express market in South America
Domestic
- • Aggregate size of TNT targeted markets: € 2.6 billion
- •Pre-crisis average forecast growth: 15%
- •Low level of market penetration by integrators
Intra-regional
- • Aggregate size of targeted markets (ABC): € 323 million
- •Pre-crisis average forecast growth: 11%
- • Potential conversion to road express of more than 50%
Intercontinental
- •Aggregate size: € 1.4 billion; 2007 growth: 6%
- • Market currently captured by freight forwarders
- • Integrators have limited market share and primarily focus on USA-SAM lane, secondarily on EU-SAM
Our quest for leadership in South America
Express to strengthen core and continue to invest in growth areas
Evolution of the Express Market
Leverage Marketing and Sales capability and create global leadership in selected vertical markets
Optimise operational networks and achieve cost savings in all areas
Invest in Emerging Platforms, example South America
Conclusion
Conclusion
| V l o m e s u C i d t o n n u e p r e s s u r e • i l o n a r o m e s v u d h i M t t o e r a e g r o n w • i / D E t o m e s c c o n o m y |
l h i d F e s r c a r g e n e u u x d f l L t o e r e o e w u u • i l l l t p r c e e e s p a r v y f f b i l d t o s e y y e |
i l d Y e S b l b t a e a s e r • d M t o e r a e • i m p r o v e m e n i i i t o p o n p r c n |
t a e i t v a g |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| h R e e n e e n a n v u i l k V t t e r c a m a r e • C b d f l r o s s o r e r • i l i i t r e g o n a s a o n S i l S i p e c a e r v c e s • S l d i i t a e s p r o u c v • |
t c e m e n i f n g o c s u i o s a w v t y |
C t o s s i A t r n e o w • i A g g r e s s v • p r o g r a m m F l t u e c o s s • |
k i i i t t r o p m s a o n i t e c o s s a n g s v e s d e c r e a s e |
||
| i f l l i b j i f l A 2 0 0 9 2 0 0 8 t t m e a r m a r g n o e c e a o e r u y v v : |
Warning about forward looking statements
Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events that depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we operate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this presentation and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.
Update TNT Post's strategy: next steps in redefining its (mail) markets
Harry Koorstra Group Managing Director Mail 4 December 2008Analysts' Meeting
Dutch Mail market will not be liberalised from 1-1-2009 onwards
Conditions towards opening
- y Level playing field: not yet realised
- -Germany : minimum wage and VAT exemption
- -UK: Hooper report
4
- y Labour conditions (Dutch postal sector CLA)
- no firm floor at moment full liberalisation
Action by Dutch government (November 28 2008)
- y Invitation by Minister of Economic Affairs and Minister of Social Affairs to Dutch postal companies and trade unions
- y Objective: realisation of a firm floor on labour conditions before full market opening
Update discussions with trade unions
November 2007: Proposal TNT to save € 125 million
- •Phased approach
- •Freeze in salary levels for 2.5 years
- • Other conditions of employment more in line with the market
June 2008: Agreement
- • One year CLA of 3% and an additional 0.5% conditional on signing of new CLA before 1-4-2009
- • Confirmation of the necessity to negotiate a new labour contract at a substantially lower level
Q1 2009: Expected outcome
- • Substantial step towards improved market conformity labour conditions
- •Agreement on implementation and transition
December 2008: Mandate
- • Trade union members give mandate to their unions to negotiate a new labour contract at substantially lower level but …
- • … special attention will have to be paid to the transition measures
Update Dutch Mail market: TNT's differentiation strategy is successful
Update Dutch Mail market: Mail growing impact of electronic media
Use of Internet (2005-2010)*
* CBS October 2008; TNT analysis; ** Motivation market research 2008;
*** Team analysis; TNT's customer information; BCG analysis
Use consumer postcards and letters declining fast**
Consumers as percentage of total consumer (2007)
Industry ambition for growing digital invoices***
2000 - 2007
Volume decline 3%-4% on average (with slightly higher expected decline in the first two years of full liberalisation)
2008 Æ
Preparation for further volume decline in the range of around 6% in the period to 2012 due to changes in behaviour of senders and receivers of mail
Revenue extention:Cost management: Growth initiatives
Master plan III
Overview master plans
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S i i d h d y a v n g s n c o m m e r c e a n o v e r e a I f f i i i d i i b i t t y n c r e a s e e c e n c y n s r u o n C b i i d i l i h l t t y o m n e r e g s e r e m a w p a r c e s M k f l b t t y a r e c o n o r m a o r c o s s u R d i 5 d l i d t t y e u c o n o e v e r y a y s S i i d h d y a n g s n c o m m e r c e a n o e r e a v v |
| M l I I I € 2 0 0 i l l i t a s e r p a n m o n : + A d 2 0 0 8 y n n o u n c e : d n f l l b d d i i e d R t t p y e e a s o n n o o o r s e c o r a o u r c o n o n s a n : l y e l g t r a t n e n i d d b i i t t t o C n c r e a s e s c u s u o n n a i g i n T m |
R d i i l 3 d l i d t t y e u c o n o m a n y e v e r y a y s ) t r ( o c e s s t n i o t S i h i l b d l a t t t t y w c o p a r m e a o o u r m o e g e n e m t o c u o n o M k f l b t t y a r e c o n o r m a o r c o s s u A L F h i t t t t y u r e r a u o m a e s e q u e n c e s o r n g |
| V l l d % 6 y o m e o s s a r o n u u : I l i 2 0 1 0- 2 0 1 7 t t y m p e m e n a o n : |
S i i d h d y a v n g s n c o m m e r c e a n o v e r e a |
** Team analysis
Already TNT proves that multi channel marketing increases value through its reach
'Er is Post' demonstrates reach of the TNT Post brand•Response factor 150,000 – 200,000 per issue
Try Now Campaign benefits from TNT reach
- • Advertisements and commercials stimulate consumers to sms or visit the internet for a free product sample
- •Lipton campaign: 138.000 sample requests by consumers
- •35.000 were directly related to 'Er is Post' magazine
TNT Post has built up experience in the use and integration of most drivers for success in online retail …Mail1
| D i f r v e r o r s u c c e |
s s |
C u r |
f l i t t r e n p o r o o |
|---|---|---|---|
| O l i k i t n n e m a r e n g |
9 | ||
| d B r a n a w a r e n e s s |
O f f l i k i t n e m a r e n g |
9 | |
| C l i k c s |
9 | ||
| A i b i l i t c c e s s y |
B i k r c s |
9 | T N T P R i l t t o s e a |
| h P o n e |
9 | ||
| T t r u s |
P t a y m e n |
9 | D i i l t t g a e n o a |
| C t t o n e n |
Q l i t u a y |
9 t r e c e n |
[ ] l. l t p o r a n l t t t. w w w n p o s n |
| S i |
N d d l i t e a e e r x y v y |
9 | |
| e r v c e |
/ 2 4 7 l l t c a c e n r e |
9 |
Current portfolio and experience of TNT is a solid stepping stone for an integrated solution for web based business
… this online proposition will include an e-shopping mall
Proposition • Convenience• Safe and reliable• Quality • Distribution options Traffic generator • On/off line marketing • E-mail • Search engine • Affiliate• Leverage on communication power TNT Post Revenue A B CLongtail # webshops per segment 1Propositions for different segments
Overview European standard parcel market
Update position of TNT Post in Parcels
| F i i l n a n c a |
2 0 0 7 R i d i i € 3 8 0 t y e v e n u e n c a o n : ( ) i l l i l d i U K l m o n e x c u n g p a r c e s R S i d i i i d t t y o n c a o n m e e n s ( ) l d i l U K e c n g o s s e s x u |
N d e e w l V y o m e g r u R y e v e n u e g S i d i R y o n c a l E 2 p a r c e s d i i t s c o n n u |
l i 8 t 2 0 0 e o p m e n s n v h % 9 t o w h 1 0 % t r o w ( i i d U K t t o n m e e n s : k E t n e o r w ) d e |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I f t t n r a s r c r e u u |
S i y e r c e s v |
L y o g |
i i i t s c s s e r c e s v |
G h i l e o g r a p c a i e x p a n s o n |
| S f M t y e p a r a e r o m i h f l i b i H t y g c o s e x i d l i n e v e r y ( 6 5 % o v e r ) b d t t s c o n r a c e u |
i l M k l d h i i N L t a y a r e e a e r s p n l i G i k h i t t y y r o w n g m a r e s a r e n N L l C / l B B 2 B 2 B y e n e u x p a r c e : d d t t n e x a y, n o n- g u a r a n e e C b d f l l y r o s s- o r e r u r a n g e o i h h b k t s e r v c e s r o u g r o e r d l m o e y |
T y r a n f r o m t o u s P a r c s P y r e p f f o e r f |
i t s p o r s e r v c e s M i l a d t o u r c e o l e s f k t a r e o r m a r e i n g |
B l i i h t y e g u m p r e s e n c e w : E E k t t n e o r w U K B 2 C i l d y m a o r e r : l d U K t p a r c e s o u s o u r c e ; E E l k t t p a r c e n e o r w I l l d l i f t y a y p a r c e e v e r y o r : l t e e c o m l d d d i a e a e s e r c e s v u v ( ) d i t t t c o n r a c a n s g n a u r e |
y Pallet distribution in NLacquired from ABX; introduction TNT Cargo services
Next challenge is a balanced portfolio position combined Mail with an effective feeder model
Broker model as feeder for international expansion
- y The market for cross border is growing fast and has interesting returns
- y Brokered network for cross border is an interesting alternative for an integrated and owned network
-
- Broad range of service offering, from low end B2C to high end B2B
-
- Flexible setup through different partners
-
- Supported by connecting IT to link TNT system to partner systems
- -Asset-light and cost-flexible
-
- Fills niches that cannot be served by the integrators
- y Brokered network might over time provide a basis for own parcel operations by acquisition of suitable partners
Broker model as basis for international expansion
4
Revenue growth of TNT Post cross border parcels
Ambition level for TNT Post Parcels
Opportunistic growth strategy in two dimensions
Overview EMN in the European mail markets
Germany 19%UK18%France20%Other25%Netherlands5%CEE1%Austria2%Belgium 3%Italy 7%Volume 102 billion pieces Revenue € 56 billion European addressed mail market Germany 20%UK20%France19%Other24%Netherlands5%CEE1%Austria2%Belgium 3%Italy 6%
Other: other (to be) EU countries, Norway, Switzerland
| T N T P d f i i i t t t o s r e v e n u e a n p r o c o m p o s o n |
M k t a r e |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ( d R e v e n u e a d d u n a r |
d d r e s s e a n ) d s s e |
R S o |
T N T E M N ( v |
k h t m a r e s a r e ) l u m e |
| Y T D Q 3 2 8 0 0 |
% f l t t o o a |
l t t o a |
A d d d r e s s e |
U d d d n a r e s s e |
| 1 9 2 |
% 2 4 |
% 0 < |
% 3 |
% 7 |
| 2 9 5 |
3 7 % |
1 % 3 % - |
1 3 % |
1 3 % |
| 3 1 7 |
% 1 7 |
% % 4 6 - |
2 % |
3 % 1 |
| 1 6 7 |
% 2 1 |
% 8 > |
% 1 |
% 5 5 |
| 7 9 1 |
1 0 0 % |
B k r e a e v e n ~ |
6 % |
2 6 % |
| d e |
o |
Overview main developments Germany
EMN UKExcellent growth up to now
Revenue development TNT Post UK
- y From a predominantly unaddressed company TNT Post UK has developed into an addressed Mail company
- y Revenues in addressed mail come from DSA activities for over 95%
-
y Through its regional offices TNT Post UK can serve the attractive regional customer segment
-
y TNT Post UK is very well positioned to develop an EtE delivery capability
- y However the regulatory uncertainty regarding the Hooper report and how it will be implemented withholds TNT from entering into EtE in 2009.
Revenue development EMN:
increasing focus on addressed mail and larger countries
Segment revenue development EMN 2004-2008
- y Addressed mail revenues have almost quadrupled over the last three years
- notwithstanding the absence of a level playing field that affects profitability
- y The entrepreneurial model of EMN guarantees a flexible and creative approach to customers and competitive pressure
- y EMN will continue to focus increasingly on addressed mail
Country revenue development EMN 2004-2008
- y From a predominantly Benelux company back in 2000 Germany, UK and Italy now comprise 80% of the revenues of EMN
- y EMN will continue to focus its growth on the main mail markets in Europe
The portfolio of EMN will be evaluated on a regular basis
Main criteria will be
- yThe need to have unaddressed mail networks as a bridgehead
- y The need to offer some value added services to support the growth of addressed mail networks (e.g. print and mail in Italy)
-
y The political/regulatory environment to build an addressed mail position in countries that will be liberalised after 2011/2013
-
* Based on temporary economic downturn
- ** Depending on regulation development affecting EtE operations
Outlook 2009 - 2012
- yMail Netherlands will continue to operate high margins
- yThere will be continued focus on cost management
- yEMN will continue to show strong growth with improved profitability
- yParcel growth looks very promising
- yE-commerce initiatives will bring additional value
- yMail will maintain a solid free cash flow
Warning about forward looking statements
Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events that depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we operate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this presentation and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.
Focus on Financials
Henk van DalenCFO4 December 2008Analysts' Meeting
Financial performance 2005-2008
Group TNT financial performance 2005 – 2008*
- y Well in control Æ Sarbox discipline continued ÆTax issues resolved
- yEPS up 17%
- yReturn on Equity from 35% to 63%
- yDividend per share up more than 35%
- y Strong revenue growth in Emerging platforms
- Express revenue up 89% to € 1.2 billion
- Mail revenue (incl. EMN Germany) up 58% to € 1.5 billion
- yFinancial efficiency at BBB+ credit rating from A
* 2008 is period Q4 2007 to Q3 2008
Group
Debt leverage Credit Rating BBB+
Focused investment in organic growth
Capex development
4-6% of revenue, including smaller bolton acquisitions
In 2008 total Capex ~ € 350 million
- Express Capex
- Mail Capex
- Boeing 747 finance lease
- Total depreciation & amortisation
- Express capex as % of Express revenues (excl. finance lease Boeing 747)
- Mail capex as % of Mail revenues
- Total capex as % of Total revenues (excl. finance lease Boeing 747)
Financial strategy 2009-2012
| l k 2 0 0 8 t u o o |
E i t t x p e c a o n ! h b l t s m e a e o w o w |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Re ve nu es |
O ic rg an re ve |
h t nu e g ro w |
Re tu rn |
Sa le o n s |
|
| € l l i io m n |
2 0 0 7 |
2 0 0 8 E |
C G A R '0 8- '1 2 |
2 0 0 8 E |
2 0 2 1 Ta t rg e |
| Ex t p re ss s eg m en |
|||||
| io & ic In l D te t t rn a na om es |
4 4 8 5, |
M d le d i in s g ig i t |
8- 0 % 1 |
A d ro un 9 % |
2- 3 % 1 1 |
| Em in la fo t er g g p rm s ( A In d C h L A M M E A Ru Tu ke ) ia, in ia, p ac a, ss r y , , , |
3 1, 1 0 |
M d i te en s |
% 1 5- 2 0 |
Lo le in w s g d ig i t |
M d le i in s g d ig i t |
| M i l s t a eg m en |
|||||
| M i l l to ta a |
4, 2 3 4 |
Lo le d in w s g ig i t |
4- 6 % |
A d ro un 1 6. 5 % |
M d i te en s |
| Em in M i l Pa ls + er g g a rc e ( lu d in E M N G ) ex c er m an g y |
4 1, 1 5 |
Lo w do b le u d ig i t |
9- % 1 1 |
H h d ig i m le d in ig i t s g |
H h le ig in s g d ig i t |
| G l to ta ro up |
1 1, 0 1 7 |
A d ro un 0 % 1 |
A d ro un 2 % 1 |
Medium term objectives 2008 – 2012 Reviewed in 2009 in light of "new economic and strategic" realities
Group
Master plan initiatives in Mail and new cost optimisation programmes in Express
Group
Focus on cash 2009-2010
- yCost savings and Restructuring
- yWorking Capital and Real Estate
- ySUN Programme
- yPensions
- yDividend
Working Capital Programme 2009/2010 Group
- yPrime focus Trade Payables / Trade Receivables Æ project outcome
- y 2009/2010 objectives set :
- ¾> € 200 million release of Working Capital
- ¾ Trade Working Capital as % of Sales from ~10% end 2007 to ~8% by end 2010; assuming comparable revenue mix
Real estate 2009/2010
- yBook value real estate ~ € 800 million end of 2008
- yMarket value under "normal circumstances" at least ~ € 1.2 billion
- y Target proceeds at ~ € 200 million, assuming close to normal market values
Pensions
Cash
- y Coverage ratio largest pension fund:
- -December 2007 142%
- -October 2008 <105%
- yUsual annual cash contribution ~ € 100 million
- yPossible additional contribution (October) ~ € 75 million
- y Currently Recovery Plan expected by DNB end Q1 2009
P&L
- yP&L charge expected to increase by ~ € 25 – € 75 million
- yMainly in Mail Netherlands
Funding strategy Group
- y Target to maintain an investment grade long term credit rating around Baa1 / BBB+
- y Availability of at least € 500 million of undrawn facilities
- y €1.0 billion Commercial Paper programme fully backstopped by €1.0 billion Revolving Credit Facility (currently € 90 million of Commercial Paper drawn)
- y Terming out of debt to reduce refinancing risks
- y Structural funding via combination of public and bank debt
- y Cash pooling systems facilitating optimised cash requirements for the group
- y Focus on internal funding structures aimed at optimising the legal, funding and tax structure of the group
Principles Current debt profile
- y € 400 million of € 1.0 billion Revolving Credit Facility extended by three more years in Q1 2008
- y Successful new £450 million 10-year Eurobond issue in August 2008
Group
Free cash flow and cash focus
| € l l i i m o n |
Q 4- 0 7 / Q 3- 0 8 |
F Y 2 0 0 7 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| C h d f t a s g e n e r a e r o m i t o p e r a o n s |
1, 2 2 8 |
1, 3 1 3 |
|
| I d i t t n e r e s a p |
( 6 4 ) 1 |
( 8 ) 1 7 |
|
| I d i t n c o m e a x e s p a |
( 3 7 5 ) |
( 4 9 2 ) |
|
| N h i t t t e c a s o p e r a n g a c s. |
6 8 9 |
6 4 3 |
|
| * N t e c a p e x |
( 3 0 8 ) |
( 2 8 4 ) |
|
| I d i t t n e r e s r e c e v e |
7 5 |
8 5 |
|
| 'F C h F l ' r e e a s o w |
4 5 6 |
4 8 3 |
|
| f N i t t t t t e n e r e s a e r a x d d b k a a c |
0 1 5 |
6 5 |
|
| N l i i t o r m a s n g a x d j t t a s m e n u |
1 0 0 |
1 6 6 |
|
| 'F C h F l ' r e e a s o w f C D F o r |
6 6 1 |
6 8 7 |
| € l l i i m n o |
F t o r e c a s 2 0 0 9 |
|---|---|
| C N t e a p e x |
2 0 0 ~ |
| A i i i t c s n s q u o |
1 5 0 ~ |
| W k l l i i t o r n g c a p a r e e a s e |
1 0 0 ~ |
| P ? i e n s o n s |
7 5 ~ |
| R h i t t t e s r u c u r n g c a s o u |
** 1 5 0 ~ |
* Capital expenditure on property, plant and equipment (PPE) and intangibles minus disposables of PPE and intangibles
**Excluding outcome of CLA discussions
Summary financial strategy 2009-2010
- yWorking capital lower
- yReduced Capex
- yReal Estate cash in
- yDividend policy reaffirmed
- yShare buy backs not likely
- yFunding flexibility
- yBolt-on acquisitions
Group
Warning about forward looking statements
Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events that depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we operate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this presentation and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.
Note: wrap-up at end of programme, as introduction to Q&A
Wrap-up Peter BakkerCEO4 December 2008Analysts' Meeting
TNT strategy addresses the key trends
Warning about forward looking statements
5
Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events that depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we operate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this presentation and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.