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NLB — Investor Presentation 2018
Mar 11, 2019
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NLB Group Presentation
FY 2018 Unaudited Results

Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d., Ljubljana (the "Company"). This presentation has been prepared solely for the purpose of informative presentation of the business conduct of the Company. This presentation has not been approved by any regulatory authority and does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or issue or invitation to purchase, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, any securities of the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
This presentation should not be considered as a recommendation that any recipient of this presentation should purchase or sell any of the Companies financial instruments or groups of financial instruments or assets. This presentation does not include all necessary information, which should be considered by the recipient of this presentation when making a decision on purchasing any of the the Companies financial instruments or assets. Each recipient of this presentation contemplating purchasing any of the Companies financial instruments or assets should make its own independent investigation of the financial condition and affairs, and its own appraisal of the Companies creditworthiness. Any corporate body or natural person interested in investing into Companies financial instruments or assets should consult well-qualified professional financial experts and thus obtain additional information. The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and are subject to change. No reliance may or should be placed by any person for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.
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To the extent available, the industry, market and competitive position data contained in this presentation come from official or third party sources. Third industry publications, studies and surveys generally state that the data contained therein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that there is no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of such data. While the Company reasonably believes that each of these publications, studies and surveys has been prepared by a reputable source, the Company have not independently verified the data contained therein. In addition, certain of the industry, market and competitive position data contained in this presentation come from the Company's own internal research and estimates based on the knowledge and experience of the Company's management in the markets in which the Company operates. While the Company reasonably believes that such research and estimates are reasonable and reliable, they, and their underlying methodology and assumptions, have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness and are subject to change. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on any of the industry, market or competitive position data contained in this presentation.
This presentation may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of the Company. The manner of distributing this presentation may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries, including (but not limited to) the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan. Persons into whose possession this presentation may come are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. By accepting this presentation, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
NLB is regulated by The Bank of Slovenia i.e. "Banka Slovenije, Slovenska 35, 1505 Ljubljana, Slovenia" and by The Securities Market Agency i.e. "Agencija za trg vrednostnih papirjev, Poljanski nasip 6, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia.

Key performance indicators of NLB Group
| Medium-term targets set in 2018(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YE 16 | YE 17 | YE 18 | Medium term | ||
| Net interest margin(2) |
2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | >2.7% | |
| Loans to deposits ratio | 74.1% | 70.8% | 68.3% | <95% | |
| Total capital ratio | 17.0% | 15.9% | 16.7% | ~17.0%(8) | |
| Cost-income ratio | 60.9% | 58.4% | 58.5% | ~50% | |
| Cost of risk(3) | 38 bps | -62 bps | -43 bps | <90bps(6) | |
| Return on equity (RoE) | 7.4% | 14.4% | 11.8% | ~12.0% | |
| Dividend payout | 58% | 84%(5) | / | ~70%(7) | |
| ratio(4) NPE |
10.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.0 – 4.0% |
Source: Company information
Note: (1) Target set by NLB management as a part of their financial projections for 2019-2023; (2) Calculated on the basis of interest bearing assets. (3) Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers; (4) Based on EBA definition. (5) Payout calculated based on 2017 profit. Total dividend paid for 2017 amounted to EUR 270.6 million (EUR 189.1 million of profit for 2017 and EUR 81.5 million of retained profit from previous years) i.e. dividend payout 120%. (6) CoR < 90bps should be read as NLB Group's limit that should not be exceeded even in deteriorated economic conditions. (7) The payment of dividends by NLB, will depend on NLB's capital structure, risk appetite, profits, financial condition, regulatory requirements, general economic and business conditions, and future prospects. (8) Target total capital ratio of around 17% will be regularly revised by competent bodies to reflect each time applicable capital requirements.

NLB Group – performance indicators across SEE countries


| Slovenia | Macedonia | Bosnia and |
Herzegovina | Kosovo | Montenegro | Serbia | NLB Group | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLB d.d., Ljubljana |
NLB Banka Skopje |
NLB Banka Banja Luka |
NLB Banka Sarajevo |
NLB Banka Prishtina |
NLB Banka Podgorica |
NLB Banka Beograd |
||
| Data on stand-alone | basis | Consolidated data* |
||||||
| Result after tax (EURm) |
165.3 | 37.1 | 16.2 | 8.8 | 14.8 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 203.6 |
| Net interest margin(1) % |
1.89% | 3.98% | 2.79% | 3.20% | 4.44% | 4.11% | 4.92% | 2.56% |
| Cost/ income % |
55.3% | 34.4% | 43.5% | 54.8% | 36.4% | 51.8% | 76.2% | 58.5% |
| Loans/ Deposits % (net) |
63.7% | 79.8% | 66.8% | 76.1% | 79.7% | 79.3% | 90.3% | 68.3% |
| NPL ratio % | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 6.9% |
| RoE a.t. |
11.6% | 19.9% | 18.7% | 11.6% | 21.6% | 14.9% | 7.9% | 11.8% |
| Total assets (EURm) |
8,811 | 1,350 | 721 | 592 | 668 | 489 | 484 | 12,740 |
| NLB ownership (%) |
/ | 87.0% | 99.8% | 97.3% | 81.2% | 99.8% | 99.9% | / |
| No. of branches (#) |
94 | 54 | 57 | 38 | 38 | 18 | 28 | 327 |
| Market(2) share % |
22.7% | 16.3% | 18.3%(4,6) | 5.1%(3,5) | 16.8% | 11.1% | 1.5%(3) | / |
Note: Financial data as of Dec – 2018.
* Consolidated data. Including non-core (2% of total assets as per 31.12.2018), other activities (2% of total assets as per 31.12.2018) and other core members.
(1) Calculated on the basis of interest bearing assets (2) Market share based on total assets; (3) Market share as of Sep-18; (4) Market share in the Republika Srpska; (5) Market share in the Federation of BiH; (6) Preliminary market share as of Dec-18.
Income Statement


In 2018, NLB Group generated EUR 203.6 million of profit after tax:
- Higher net interest income, mainly due to loan volume growth and lower interest expenses;
- Higher net fee and commission income;
- Higher costs, due to increase in costs related to marketing/promotion and business consulting;
- Non-recurring income from the sale of the subsidiary NLB Nov penziski fond (EUR 12.2 million), Skopje and 28.13% minority stake in Skupna pokojninska družba (EUR - 0.5 million).
Result after tax including non-recurring items (NLB Group, EURm)


Contribution to the NLB Group consolidated result a.t.

*NLB Skladi, NLB Nov penziski fond, NLB Vita, Skupna pokojninska družba, Bankart, NLB Crna gora and NLB Srbija.
Balance sheet structure – NLB Group
Simple client business driven balance sheet
(31 Dec 18, EURm)


Business Performance

Net interest income & net interest margin
Higher net interest income and stable NIM



Effects on net interest income change - YoY evolution (EURm)

Source: Company information Note: (1) Calculated on the basis of interest bearing assets.
Net interest income drivers – NLB d.d. Slovenia(1) Solid retail and SEE loan growth, Stable loan yields

Net interest income drivers – Foreign strategic markets(1)
Loan growth 10%yoy, slight decline in NIM

Net non-interest income – NLB Group Good performance in Fee and Commissions mainly
Net non-interest income (Group, EURm)

Net fee and commission income growing YoY (Group, EURm)

Net non-interest income increased due to higher net fee and commission income (EUR 5.2 million or 3% YoY). The increase is manly related to the new package offer for individuals that simplified the use of banking services.
Note: (1) Includes investment funds, guarantees, investment banking, insurance products and other services.
113,0
Costs – NLB Group
Cost containment, some upward pressures

- Increase was recorded in costs related to marketing/promotion and business consulting (EUR 18.7 million).
- CIR increased by 0.1 p.p. to 58.5%, while CIR normalised(1) increased by 0.1 p.p. to 59.0%.
- Headcount dropped by 18% over 2012-2018 driven primarily by Slovenia core & non-core.
- Ongoing closures of unprofitable branches.

Operating expenses reduction (Group, EURm) Employees and branches evolution – stronger rationalisation in tougher Slovenia market (#)



Credit impairments and provisions & cost of risk – NLB Group
Lower credit release of impairments and provisions; cost of risk remained negative

(3)

In 2018 credit impairments and provisions were net released in the amount of EUR 30.2 million (EUR 13.3 million lower YoY) as a result of a successful restructuring of some major exposures and the recovery of non-performing loans.
The release in 2017 was to a large extent affected by the release of pool provisions in the approx. amount of EUR 21 million, mainly in the corporate client segment.
Consequently, the cost of risk in both periods is negative but increased from -62 bps to -43 bps.
Negative cost of risk (Group, bps) Credit impairments and provisions – contribution (EURm)

13

Assets and Liabilities

NLB Group Assets
Well diversified loan book, strong liquidity position

Total assets of NLB Group – structure (EURm)
Financial Assets
Cash, cash balances at central banks, and other demand deposits at banks
Other

Credit portfolio by segment (31 Dec 2018)

Banking book portfolio by asset class (Group, 31 Dec 2018, EURm)

NLB Group Assets – Loan portfolio
Balanced loan portfolio with substantial loan growth in subsidiaries
Gross loans to non-banks by strategic member – contribution (EURm)
| EURm | 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | Change YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail banking in Slovenia | 2.243,4 | 2.122,5 | 121,0 | 6% |
| Corporate banking in Slovenia | 2.061,0 | 2.188,6 | -127,6 | -6% |
| (1) Financial markets in Slovenia |
101,8 | 221,1 | -119,3 | -54% |
| Strategic foreign markets | 2.932,7 | 2.660,6 | 272,1 | 10% |
| of which | ||||
| NLB Banka Skopje | 918,1 | 877,9 | 40,2 | 5% |
| NLB Banka Banja Luka | 408,3 | 379,2 | 29,1 | 8% |
| NLB Banka Prishtina | 494,0 | 414,3 | 79,7 | 19% |
| NLB Banka Sarajevo | 391,6 | 368,5 | 23,1 | 6% |
| NLB Banka Podgorica | 323,9 | 287,1 | 36,8 | 13% |
| NLB Banka Beograd | 327,8 | 251,1 | 76,8 | 31% |
| Non-core markets and activities | 288,6 | 448,5 | -159,9 | -36% |
| NLB Group | 7.627,5 | 7.641,2 | -13,7 | 0% |
Gross loan growth in subsidiaries banks, especially in NLB Banka Prishtina, NLB Banka Beograd and NLB Banka Podgorica.
Equaly distributed loans to individuals and corporate with increasing loans to individuals in 2018.

NLB Group Liabilities
ANGLEŠKO
Funding structure driven by stable and price insensitive deposit base

Deposits accounting for 9 Deposit split (Group, EURm) 4% of funding (Group, EURm)
- Primarily deposit funded
- Due to low interest rates, sight deposits prevailing
- Decreasing cost of funding


Decreasing average cost of funding (%)

NLB Group Liabilities
Strong deposit growth
Deposits from customers by strategic member – contribution (EURm)

Deposit growth across all markets, despite low interest rate environment.
NLB d.d. charges 0.03% monthly fee on deposits volume (threshold from Jan-19 at EUR 100k) to corporate deposits and account balances.
Decreasing deposit interest rates (%)*

Capital - NLB Group CET1 capital up YoY
NLB Group capital ratios (%) Capital structure and ratios

At the end of December 2018, the capital ratios for NLB Group stood at 16.7% (or 0.8 p.p. higher YoY).
The improvement of capital adequacy derives from higher capital, mainly due to:
- inclusion of H1 2018 profit (EUR 108.8 million),
- inclusion of positive effect from the implementation of IFRS 9 (EUR 44 million for NLB Group),
- conclusion of transitional arrangements relevant until the end of 2017 in the amount of EUR 28 million and
- decrease in the amount of EUR 82 million retained earnings paid as part of dividend pay-out.

| NLB Group | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in EUR million) | 31 Dec 2017 | 31 Dec 2018 | Change | YoY |
| Common Equity Tier 1 capital | 1,362.1 | 1,453.4 | 91.3 | 6.7% |
| Additional Tier 1 capital | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Tier 1 capital | 1,362.1 | 1,453.4 | 91.3 | 6.7% |
| Tier 2 capital | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Total capital | 1,362.1 | 1,453.4 | 91.3 | 6.7% |
| Total risk exposure amount (RWA) |
8,546.5 | 8,677.6 | 131.1 | 1.5% |
| Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio | 15.9% | 16.7% | 0.8 p.p. | |
| Tier 1 Ratio | 15.9% | 16.7% | 0.8 p.p. | |
| Total Capital Ratio |
15.9% | 16.7% | 0.8 p.p. |
Capital adequacy and local requirements (31 Dec-18, %)

Capital evolution and requirements
Strong capital position
Capital position fully reflective of IFRS9 impact (Group, EURm)
6.850 6.865 7.096 7.180
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Credit risk Market risk incl. CVA Operational risk
931 893 501 544 949 953
8.546 8.678
(2)
147 105
(1)
7.927 7.862

• Highest quality capital, CET1 only, reaching 16.7% on Group level in Dec-18 (after dividend payout and inclusion of H1'18 profit)
Well above applicable regulatory
- As of 1 March 2019 Pillar 2 Requirement (P2R) lower by 0.25 p.p. (3.25%), as a result of better overall SREP assessment. Comfortable buffers against 2019 regulatory requirements of 14.75% OCR
- NLB medium term target of 17% total capital ratio; to be regularly revised by competent bodies to reflect each time applicable capital requirements.
- NLB intends to issue a Tier 2 instrument by end of 2019 as part of new EC commitments (subject to market conditions), as such deploying its capital optimisation potential
Note: (1) Decrease of RWA for operating risk in 2016 is a reflection of declining net interest income in 2013 vs 2012. Given RWA for operating risk are calculated based on past three-year average this impacted the decline in 2016; (2) Increase of RWA for market risk since December 2016 is a result of inclusion of FX structural position of SEE subsidiaries; (3) See EBA's Risk Dashboard data as of Q3 2018 for average CET1 ratio of EU banks.
Solid dividend distribution
| (NLB d.d., EURm) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| NLB d.d. profit | 44 | 64 | 189 | 165 |
| o/w dividends from subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures to NLB d.d. |
14 | 29 | 58 | 50 |
| NLB Group profit after tax |
92 | 110 | 225 | 204 |
| NLB Group dividend to shareholder (paid in year after) |
44 | 64 | 271 | |
| Implied payout ratio(%) |
48% | 58% | 84%(1) | |
- The payment of dividends by NLB, will depend on a number of factors, including NLB's capital structure, risk appetite, profits, financial condition, regulatory requirements, general economic and business conditions, and future prospects.
- The Bank's future intention is to distribute dividends in excess of the Group's target total capital ratio. The said ratio currently amounts to 17%, however is under revision to reflect new (lower) capital requirement (TSCR) that is applicable as of 1 March 2019.
- As at 31 December 2018, the Group had CET 1 ratio of 16.7% which includes the H1 2018 result of EUR 109 million. The Bank intends to further strengthen and also optimize NLB Group capital structure by issuing a Tier 2 instrument in 2019.
- The Bank targets the payment of dividend in the amount of approximately 70% of its consolidated profit, subject to the decision by the Bank's General Assembly.


Asset Quality

Diversified credit portfolio, focused on core markets and cautious risk taking

Credit portfolio(1) by currency and rate type (Group, 31 Dec 2018)
Improving structure of credit portfolio by client credit ratings (Group)(2)
Source: Company information

- No large concentration in any specific industry or client segment
- Lending strategy focuses on its core markets of retail, SME and selected corporate business activities
- Great emphasis is also placed on further improvement of credit portfolio
- Intensive and proactive handling of problematic customers
- Changes in the credit process
- Early warning system for detecting increased credit risk
- The Group is actively present on the market, financing existing and new creditworthy clients. The successful deleveraging of companies and new investment projects in Slovenia have had a positive influence on the approval of new loans.
Note: (1) Credit portfolio also includes advances to banks and central banks; (2) Rating A, B and C are performing exposures. Rating A: investment grade clients with high financial stability; Rating B: clients with high ability to repay their obligations, a significant aggravation of the economic environment would cause problems to them; Rating C: performing clients with increased level of risk who may encounter problems with settlement of liabilities in the future; Ration D and E are NPLs: Default clients (article 178 of CRR), including clients in delay >90days and other clients considered 'unlikely to pay' with delays below 90 days. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding..
Dec-15
Diversified credit portfolio, focused on core markets and cautious risk taking

Credit portfolio(1) by segment (Group, 31 Dec 2018, EURm)
Credit portfolio(1) by geography (Group, 31 Dec 2018, EURm)

Source: Company information
Note: (1) Credit portfolio also includes advances to banks and central banks; (2) State includes exposures to central banks; (3) Other countries represent less than 8% of total portfolio. The largest part represent EU members.
NPLs reduced significantly & fully covered by provisions and collateral


Top 20 NPLs (Group, 31 Dec 2018)

Source: Company information Note: (1) Cash coverage calculated including both individual and pool provisions.

NPL specific provisions Pool provisions
• An important Group strength is the NPL coverage ratio 1, which remains high at 77.1%. Further, the Group's NPL coverage ratio 2 stands at 64.6%, which is well above the EU average as published by the EBA (45.7% for Q3 2018). As such, it enables a further reduction in NPLs without any material losses
Active workout drove gross NPL ratio down
(Group, in EURm)
New formation very low, successfull legacy resolution

Gross NPL formation has been low since 2015 (Group, EURm)

Low NPL in Retail segment throughout the economic cycle.
In Corporate segment a considerable reduction of NPL is observed in industries with the highest NPL %.
Top 10 NPL represent over 30% of the entire NPL volume;
the coverage with provisions remains high, limiting the potential losses.
NPE ratio reduced by 2 p.p. YoY to 4.7%.

Note: NPL was defined until December 2014 as loan exposure to D and E clients/claims and delays over 90 days from loans to A, B and C classified clients. Since customers with loans (in arrears over) with 90 days past due should be classified in nonperforming grade (D or E), NPL definition changed and from 31.12.2014 include only D and E exposures; NPLs, NPL ratio and NPL cash coverage based on Credit portfolio; (1) Refers to corporate loans issued since 2014 and retail loans issued since 2015.

Strategy & IT

Track record of innovation
The pioneer of banking innovation in Slovenia

Ranked as the best m- and e-bank on the Slovenian market (3)

First Slovenian bank to launch contactless ATMs

First Slovenian bank to launch chat and video call functionalities

Only bank with multichannel 24/7 support (through phone, chat and video call)

Only bank with fully mobile express loan capabilities (Consumer & SME)

Top-ranked financial apps on App Store and Google Play

Demonstrated success in moving to digital

Increased use of chat and video call functionality ('000s of



Note: All figures are for Slovenia (1) Individual users (Klikin and NLB Klik); (2) Average for total period of implementation from Dec-17 to Dec-18; (3) mBančništvo v Sloveniji 2018, performed by E-laborat in 2018
Clear strategy to address current challenges
Key challenges
| Sector and regulation | Macro | Clients | Technology |
|---|---|---|---|
| • Regulatory interventions |
• Low interest rate environment |
• More demanding and knowledgeable clients |
• Competition from fintechs |
| • Further complexity of new regulations (MREL, Basel IV) |
• Potential political and geopolitical risks |
• Preference for digital channels |
• Enhanced customer insights through data management |
| • Market consolidation |
• Potential economic slowdown |
• Impact of social media |
Strategic priorities
Source: Company information
| Innovative focus on customer experience ✓ Omni-channel product distribution ✓ Partnership programmes ✓ End-to-end customer solutions |
Enhanced distribution ✓ Migration to digital channels ✓ Sales process optimisation ✓ Improved value-creating customer insights |
|---|---|
| Cost containment – Simplicity champion ✓ Optimal operations and workforce ("Lean initiative") ✓ Effective procurement at group level ✓ Investment in IT transformation and shared services |
Improved risk management ✓ Optimised risk processes ✓ Improved risk modelling ✓ Streamlined risk governance |
| Optimised product offering ✓ Pricing optimisation ✓ Simplified product offering ✓ Further focus on fee-based & advisory products |
Regional specialist ✓ Exclusive strategic interest in and unique understanding of the region ✓ Consistent strategy across markets |

Medium-term objectives in IT and Digital
Leverage digital and data to enhance our business model
Enhance customer experience ✓ Increase customer satisfaction ✓ Create new business opportunities Optimise operations ✓ Full (paperless) digitalisation of processes ✓ Increased process automation ✓ Reduction in cost-to-serve ✓ Concentration on value adding activities (advisory, sales) Data insights ✓ Risk scoring models ✓ Behavioral models to inform individualised customer offers ✓ Support of automated decisions ✓ Upgrading digital channels to support full customer journeys ✓ Migration of customers to new digital channels ✓ Idea management implementation ✓ Deploying partnerships to explore new concepts ✓ Open eco-system to become solution Omni-channel Strategic initiatives 1 2 Innovative solutions 3 Increase innovation capacity ✓ Agile development ✓ Pull ideas driven by customer demands ✓ Empowering employees Simplification ✓ Process and product simplification to support digital delivery ✓ Simplified IT enabling digitalisation 4 Strategic objectives Improve customer insight ✓ Data collection ✓ Data extrapolation ✓ Advanced analytics

NLB Group synergy opportunities
Group synergies are being addressed in all functional areas
- Established predominantly for subsidiary banks
- Core banking maintenance and development operating since the beginning of 2018
- Additional support with common teams is being added:
- Solution for loan origination and approval process roll-out in 5 subsidiary banks
- ESB roll-out in 4 subsidiary banks
- CRM capability assessment followed by roll-out in 5 banks
IT regionalisation activities Procurement
- SIEM(1) and SOC(2) set up in Ljubljana are near completion
- IT capability assessment in the NLB GROUP is in progress
- Communications and data center activities are underway
- Aiming to avail an enabling group infrastructure architecture
IT competence center Process (System) competences
- Introduction of lean principles is underway
- Loan origination and approval process is being mapped in all 6 subsidiary banks with aim to define a standard regional process
- Standard and KPI definition is completed for payment processing and cash transactions
-
Basic KPI framework is being defined for common core processes
-
Regional standards in procurement were implemented in 2010
- Systematic approach to cost optimisation through Non-FTE cost optimisation project was introduced in September 2015
- Central sourcing in strategic sourcing categories is in place
By actively working on Group synergies, NLB Group wants to leverage on costs (scale), speed of implementation and knowledge sharing


Outlook

Outlook 2019
Macro outlook & risk factors affecting the business outlook
- ✓ Real GDP growth: most countries are likely to grow at around 3% - 4% if supported by loose monetary conditions, fiscal easing and solid domestic demand
- ✓ Public debt in all markets below EU average
- ✓ Low household indebtedness and solid savings performance
? Economies will be sensitive to a potential slowdown in the Eurozone
- ? Worsened interest rate outlook
- ? Regulatory & tax measures impacting banks
- ? Geopolitical uncertainties
Business outlook
ASSUMPTIONS:
- Moderate increase of revenues and pre-provision income
- Continued net loan growth in line with GDP dynamics and stable NIM
- Increase of cost of risk, however remaining at low levels
- Ambition to remain flat on costs, however upward pressure due to investments and labour costs
- In 2017 and 2018 non-recurring income of EUR 10+ million not expected for 2019

Appendixes
| Appendix 1: Segment Analysis |
35 |
|---|---|
| Appendix 2: Macro Overview |
54 |
| Appendix 3: EC committments |
68 |
| Appendix 4: Financial statements |
70 |


Appendix 1
Segment Analysis

NLB Group Segments

| (EURm, 2018 / 31 Dec 2018) | Corporate Banking | Retail Banking |
Foreign Strategic Markets |
Financial Markets(7) |
Non-Core | NLB Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit before tax |
60.4 | 40.9 | 99.7 | 26.5 | 8.2 | 233.3 |
| Assets | 1,976 | 2,384 | 4,293 | 3,635 | 264 | 12,740 |
| CIR | 56.0% | 73.3% | 46.7% | 32.4% | 125.5% | 58.5% |
| Cost of risk (in bps) |
-135 | 17 | 35 | / | -705 | -43 |
Note: Organisational structure of operating activities only. Support functions (eg. controlling, global risk, IT, HR, etc) are omitted; (1) Micro corporate clients are included in retail; (2) Includes 39% minority stake in Bankart; (3) 50% equity stake, under equity consolidation; (4) Main objective is NPL management; (5) Real-estate SPVs; (6) In liquidation; (7) All figures include Investment Banking;
Group refocused on profitable activities

Source: Company information
Note: (1) Other activities 1%; (2) All figures include Investment Banking; (3) As per Bank of Slovenia and internal calculations as of 31 Dec 2018.
Retail banking in Slovenia
| in EURm consolidated |
2018 | 2017 | Change | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income |
79.3 | 72.8 | 6.6 | 9% |
| Net non-interest income |
67.1 | 67.8 | -0.7 | -1% |
| Total net operating income |
146.4 | 140.6 | 5.9 | 4% |
| Total costs | -107.3 | -100.8 | -6.5 | -6% |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 39.1 | 39.8 | -0.7 | -2% |
| o/w non-recurring items |
-0.5 | -0.5 | - | |
| Impairments and provisions |
-3.7 | -2.9 | -0.8 | -26% |
| Net gains from investments in subsidiaries, associates, and JVs' | 5.4 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 14% |
| Result before tax |
40.9 | 41.7 | -0.8 | -2% |
| 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | Change YoY |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net loans to customers | 2,217.4 | 2,083.9 | 133.6 | 6% |
| Gross loans to customers | 2,243.4 | 2,122.5 | 121.0 | 6% |
| Housing loans | 1,374.6 | 1,324.6 | 49.9 | 4% |
| Interest rate on housing loans | 2.50% | 2.46% | 0.04 p.p. | |
| Consumer loans | 599.0 | 525.0 | 74.0 | 14% |
| Interest rate on consumer loans |
5.88% | 5.60% | 0.28 p.p. | |
| Other | 269.9 | 272.9 | -3.0 | -1% |
| Deposits from customers | 5,814.5 | 5,537.1 | 277.3 | 5% |
| Interest rate on deposits | 0.08% | 0.14% | -0.06 p.p. | |
| Non performing loans (gross) | 43.0 | 50.0 | -7.0 | -14% |
| Cost of risk (in bps) | 17 | 14 | 4 | |
| CIR | 73.3% | 71.7% | 1.6 p.p. | |
| Interest margin |
2.02% | 1.95% | 0.07 p.p. |
• Net interest income was still under pressure given the continued low interest rates environment; nevertheless, it increased (9% YoY) due to the growth of the retail loan portfolio and slow growth in interest rates on new loans.
- Net non-interest income decreased (1% YoY):
- − Net fees and commission income increased by 4% YoY, due to revenue growth in the asset management business (NLB Skladi) and a new package offer for individuals.
- − Net other income was burdened by EUR 2.2 million higher regulative expenses (DGS EUR 1.4 million and SRF EUR 0.8 million higher in 2018) and the negative effect from the sale of 28.13% minority stake in Skupna pokojninska družba (EUR -0.5 million).
- Higher costs and additional impairments and provisions contributed to the lower profit before tax by 2% YoY.
- Growth of 6% YoY in loan balances and growth of 5% YoY in deposits volume.
Retail banking in Slovenia High and stable market shares across products
Retail net loans in Slovenia Retail deposits in Slovenia

Upside from fee generating products



- Improving macro and low household indebtedness (21% GDP in 2015) driving retail banking growth
-
1 player in Private Banking(3)
- Limited competition and strong cross-selling capabilities with Bankassurance and asset management
-
1 player in Slovenian asset management(4); market share of NLB Skladi at mutual funds in Slovenia equals 32.1% as of 31 Dec 2018
- AuM of EUR 1.26bn as of 31 Dec 2018 including investments in mutual funds and discretionary portfolios
- Growing Bankassurance business across products
- Life: NLB Vita has reached 14.6% market share by GWP, becoming #3 largest player in the Slovenian market as of 31 Dec 2018
- Non-life: Solid growth, in partnership with #3 non-life company (Generali)
Source: Bank of Slovenia (retail loans and deposits), Company information, Slovenian Fund Management Association
Note: All figures refer to full year ending 31 Dec unless stated otherwise; (1) Excluding the NPL sale effect of EUR 27m net; (2) Excludes deposits of foreign persons; (3) Company information; (4) By AuM (Slovenian Fund Management Association).
Corporate banking in Slovenia
| in EURm consolidated |
2018 | 2017 | Change YoY |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 42.5 | 42.9 | -0.4 | -1% | |
| Net non-interest income | 34.1 | 31.0 | 3.1 | 10% | |
| Total net operating income | 76.7 | 73.9 | 2.7 | 4% | |
| Total costs | -43.0 | -43.6 | 0.6 | 1% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 33.7 | 30.3 | 3.4 | 11% | |
| Impairments and provisions | 26.6 | 22.5 | 4.2 | 19% | |
| Result before tax |
60.4 | 52.8 | 7.5 | 14% |
| 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | Change YoY |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net loans to customers | 1,950.4 | 2,026.3 | -75.9 | -4% |
| Gross loans to customers | 2,061.0 | 2,188.6 | -127.6 | -6% |
| Corporate | 1,854.4 | 1,939.3 | -84.9 | -4% |
| Key/Mid/Small Corporate | 1,643.2 | 1,770.7 | -127.5 | -7% |
| Interest rate on Key/Mid/Small Corporate loans | 1.88% | 2.03% | -0.15 p.p. | |
| Restructuring and Workout | 211.2 | 168.6 | 42.6 | 25% |
| State | 206.1 | 248.7 | -42.6 | -17% |
| Interest rate on State loans | 1.69% | 1.51% | 0.19 p.p. | |
| Deposits from customers | 1,120.8 | 1,080.9 | 39.9 | 4% |
| Interest rate on deposits | 0.07% | 0.09% | -0.02 p.p. | |
| Non performing loans (gross) | 179.7 | 262.8 | -83.1 | -32% |
| Cost of risk (in bps) | -135 | -104 | -30 | |
| CIR | 56.0% | 59.0% | -2.9 p.p. | |
| Interest margin |
2.61% | 2.29% | 0.31 p.p. |
• The segment recorded EUR 60.4 million in profit before tax in 2018, affected by the low interest environment and the generally very high liquidity in the market.
- Net operating income increased EUR 2.7 million YoY (4%), mostly due to higher net income from financial transactions due to the effects of the valuation of loans at fair value in Restructuring and Workout.
- Higher release of impairments and provisions (EUR 4.2 million).
• A decrease in gross loans due to the size of matured loans in Key enterprises and prepayment of some larger exposures, while Small enterprises continues to grow (9% YoY).
Corporate banking in Slovenia High market shares across products(1)

- Competitive advantage in SME market due to largest branch network fueled the growth in Mid Corporate and Small Enterprises
- Large Corporate portfolio has declined since 2016 mainly due to EC commitments that imposed:
- RoE targets, affecting NLB ability to participate in recent issuance by State-owned enterprises and high rated corporate clients(4)
- Additional restrictions on cross-border lending (released in Aug-18),leasing and factoring have impacted new business opportunity
- In 2018 sizable maturities and prepayments of some larger exposures.
- With the restrictions being lifted NLB is able to explore these and other opportunities to restore a healthy growth in Large Corporate segment
banking and custody services
12.8k (3) POS terminals
36.4% mkt share(3) in merchant acquiring
EUR 15.9bn assets under custody
Source: Bank of Slovenia, Company information
Note: All figures refer to full year ending 31-Dec unless stated otherwise; (1) Data for NLB as per 31 Dec 2018, other banks as per 30 Sep 2018 (latest available); (2) Key business excludes restructuring and workout; (3) As of 31 Dec 2018; (4) Based on NLB internal credit rating.
Financial markets and Investment banking in Slovenia
| Financial markets Slovenia |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in EURm consolidated |
2018 | 2017 | Change | YoY | ||||
| Net interest income |
31.4 | 31.9 | -0.4 | -1% | ||||
| Net non-interest income |
-1.1 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -26% | ||||
| Total net operating income |
30.3 | 31.0 | -0.7 | -2% | ||||
| Total costs | -6.5 | -6.7 | 0.1 | 2% | ||||
| Result before impairments and provisions | 23.8 | 24.3 | -0.5 | -2% | ||||
| Impairments and provisions |
0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | - | ||||
| Result before tax |
24.0 | 24.3 | -0.3 | -1% | ||||
| 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | Change | YoY | |||||
| Balances with Central banks |
575.0 | 350.8 | 224.2 | 64% | ||||
| Banking book securities | 2,755.2 | 2,337.4 | 417.9 | 18% | ||||
| Interest rate on banking book securities |
1.25% | 1.40% | -0.16 p.p. | |||||
| Wholesale funding |
244.1 | 260.7 | -16.6 | -6% | ||||
| Interest rate on wholesale funding |
0.48% | 0.51% | -0.03 p.p. |
• Profit before tax amounted to EUR 24.0 million, a decrease of 1% YoY.
• 1% lower net interest income due to decreasing yields in the securities portfolio (the maturity of some high yielding assets and reinvestments made in still low yielding environment) and due to higher interest expenses resulting from the increased level of excess liquidity.
• Negative net non-interest income, EUR 0.2 million lower YoY, mostly as a result of early sale of French bonds in 2017 (EUR 1.8 million) and EUR 1.3 million lower expenses for SRF in 2018 (EUR 0.4 million).
| Investment banking |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in EURm consolidated |
2018 | 2017 | Change | YoY | ||||
| Total net operating income |
8.5 | 8.8 | -0.3 | -3% | ||||
| Total costs | -6.1 | -5.8 | -0.3 | -5% | ||||
| Result before tax |
2.4 | 3.0 | -0.6 | -20% |
• The Investment banking and custody services result before tax decreased by EUR 0.6 million YoY.
• Total net operating income decreased YoY; fewer concluded interest rate hedge deals and consequently revenue decrease in treasury sales which was compensated by revenue growth in corporate finances, brokerage and custody.
• The total asset value under custody at the end of 2018 was EUR 15.9 billion, a 8.23% increase YoY.
Financial markets in Slovenia Strong liquidity position

Liquid assets evolution (EURm)
Well positioned and funded division
- Strong liquidity buffer provides solid base for future core growth consisting of liquid assets which are not encumbered for operational or regulatory purposes
- Banking book securities portfolio is well diversified in terms of asset class and geography to minimise concentration risk, and is invested predominantly in high quality issuers on prudent tenors
Well diversified banking book by geography (31 Dec 2018)

Maturity profile of banking book securities(3) (31 Dec 2018, EURm)

Note: Numbers refer to NLB d.d. only; (1) Incl. trading and banking book securities; (2) Includes other European countries, Canada and Russian federation; (3) Including DARS bonds;
The volume of ECB eligible credit claims decreased due to the modification in ECB eligibility criterion adopted on 7 February 2018 in ECB Guideline (EU) 2018/570.
¸ (4) Loans booked under segment Corporate Banking Slovenia.
Strategic foreign markets
| 2018 | 2017 | Change | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | |||
| 36% | |||
| 12% | |||
| -3% | |||
| 21% | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| 99.7 | 102.0 | -2.3 | -2% |
| 7.9 | 8.2 | -0.3 | -4% |
| 150.1 63.9 214.0 -100.0 114.0 12.2 -14.3 |
144.6 47.1 191.7 -97.2 94.5 - 7.6 |
5.5 16.8 22.3 -2.8 19.6 - -21.8 |
| 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | Change YoY |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net loans to customers |
2,718.0 | 2,393.5 | 324.5 | 14% |
| Gross loans to customers |
2,932.7 | 2,660.6 | 272.1 | 10% |
| Individuals | 1,438.1 | 1,276.2 | 161.9 | 13% |
| Interest rate on retail loans |
7.09% | 7.50% | -0.42 p.p. | |
| Corporate | 1,405.0 | 1,277.9 | 127.1 | 10% |
| Interest rate on corporate loans |
4.92% | 5.41% | -0.49 p.p. | |
| State | 89.6 | 106.5 | -16.9 | -16% |
| Interest rate on state loans |
4.33% | 4.82% | -0.50 p.p. | |
| Deposits from customers |
3,438.1 | 3,078.3 | 359.8 | 12% |
| Interest rate on deposits |
0.61% | 0.86% | -0.25 p.p. | |
| Non performing loans (gross) |
219.9 | 252.0 | -32.1 | -13% |
| Cost of risk (in bps) | 35 | -39 | 74 | |
| CIR | 46.7% | 50.7% | -4.0 p.p. | |
| Interest margin |
3.85% | 4.04% | -0.19 p.p. |
- Profit before tax amounted to EUR 99.7 million, and includes non-recurring income from the sale of the subsidiary NLB Nov penziski fond, Skopje in the positive amount of EUR 12.2 million. In contrast, in 2017 the profit was positively affected by the release of impairments and provisions in the amount of EUR 7.6 million (release of pool provisions in Q1 2017).
- Despite the competitive market environment and high pressure on interest rates, net interest income increased by 4% YoY due to higher volume of operation.
- Strong growth in net non-interest income, especially in fee and commission income (4% YoY).
- The cost of risk was positive due to establishment of Impairmats and provisions.
- Growth of 10% YoY in gross loan balances and growth of 12% YoY in deposits volume.
SEE banks continuing solid performance in 2018
- ✓ Profitability improvement across all markets in SEE, with 17% pre-provision income growth y-o-y
- ✓ Growing credit portfolio in all markets, with aggregate deposits balance marginally up q-o-q
- ✓ Reversal of pool provisions represents EUR 12m of total PBT increase
| NLB Banka Skopje |
NLB Banka Banja Luka |
NLB Banka Sarajevo |
NLB Banka Prishtina |
NLB Banka Podgorica |
NLB Banka Beograd |
Total banks(1) core |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B/S (EURm) | 31 Dec 2018 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2018 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2018 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2018 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2018 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2018 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2017 |
31 Dec 2018 |
Δ |
| Total assets | 1,236 | 1,350 | 670 | 721 | 531 | 592 | 584 | 668 | 457 | 489 | 371 | 484 | 3,849 | 4,116 | 7% |
| Net loans to customers Deposits from |
797 | 859 | 349 | 385 | 333 | 359 | 387 | 467 | 265 | 311 | 239 | 319 | 2,370 | 2,603 | 10% |
| customers | 1,005 | 1,076 | 533 | 576 | 428 | 472 | 507 | 586 | 360 | 392 | 260 | 353 | 3,093 | 3,282 | 6% |
| P&L (EURm) | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | Δ |
| NII(2) | 49.7 | 48.8 | 18.1 | 19.1 | 18.1 | 17.6 | 24.5 | 27.4 | 16.4 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 19.8 | 144.7 | 150.6 | 4% |
| NNII(2) | 12.8 | 24.0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 42.7 | 57.8 | 35% |
| OpEx | -23.4 | -25.0 | -12.8 | -13.0 | -14.0 | -14.2 | -11.2 | -11.8 | -12.4 | -12.3 | -16.3 | -18.0 | -90.1 | -94.4 | 5% |
| PPI | 39.1 | 47.7 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 17.8 | 20.6 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 97.3 | 114.0 | 17% |
| Result a.t. |
40.0 | 37.1 | 23.7 | 16.2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 95.3 | 92.1 | -3% |
| Ratios | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | |||
| LTD net Net interest |
79.2% | 79.8% | 65.6% | 66.8% | 77.7% | 76.1% | 76.3% | 79.7% | 73.7% | 79.3% | 91.9% | 90.3% | |||
| margin(3) | 4.33% | 3.98% | 2.78% | 2.79% | 3.46% | 3.20% | 4.54% | 4.44% | 3.68% | 4.11% | 5.79% | 4.92% | |||
| CIR | 37.4% | 34.4% | 46.1% | 43.5% | 54.8% | 54.8% | 38.7% | 36.4% | 57.7% | 51.8% | 77.8% | 76.2% | |||
| RoE a.t. |
27.8% | 19.9% | 29.3% | 18.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 22.2% | 21.6% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% |

Source: Company information
Note: (1) Calculated as simple sums for each item; (2) NII: Net interest income, NNII: Net non-interest income; (3) Calculated on the basis of interest bearing assets.
NLB Banka Skopje
| NLB Banka AD Skopje | "on stand alone basis" | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key financial indicators | Change | ||||
| 2018 | 2017 | YoY | |||
| ROE a.t. | 19.9% | 27.8% | -7.9 p.p. | ||
| Interest margin* | 3.98% | 4.33% | -0.4 p.p. | ||
| CIR | 34.4% | 37.4% | -3.0 p.p. | ||
| Cost of risk net (bps)** | 74 | -43 | 117 | ||
| LTD net (%) | 79.8 | 79.2 | 0.5 | ||
| Income statement | Change | ||||
| in 000 EUR | 2018 | 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total net operating income | 72,753 | 62,511 | 10,242 | 16.4% | |
| Net interest income | 48,781 | 49,665 | -884 | -1.8% | |
| Net non-interest income | 23,972 | 12,846 | 11,126 | 86.6% | |
| o/w net fees and commissions |
14,334 | 14,169 | 165 | 1.2% | |
| Total costs | -25,049 | -23,381 | -1,668 | -7.1% | |
| Employee costs | -12,975 | -12,370 | -605 | -4.9% | |
| Other general and administrative expenses | -8,878 | -8,000 | -878 | -11.0% | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -3,196 | -3,011 | -185 | -6.1% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 47,704 | 39,130 | 8,574 | 21.9% | |
| Impairments and provisions | -6,796 | 5,481 | -12,277 | - | |
| Result after tax | 37,068 | 40,004 | -2,936 | -7.3% | |
| Number of employees | 893 | 865 | 28 | 3.2% |
| Balance sheet | Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 000 EUR | 31 Dec 2018 31 Dec 2017 |
YoY | ||
| Total assets | 1,350,054 | 1,235,914 | 114,153 | 9.2% |
| Loans to customers (gross stock) | 918,140 | 877,644 | 40,237 | 4.6% |
| Gross loans to corporate | 383,212 | 383,678 | -631 | -0.2% |
| Gross loans to individuals | 531,406 | 485,873 | 45,442 | 9.4% |
| Gross loans to state | 3,522 | 8,093 | -4,574 | -56.5% |
| Loans to customers (net stock) | 858,592 | 796,678 | 61,921 | 7.8% |
| Financial assets | 196,112 | 168,532 | 27,586 | 16.4% |
| Deposits from customers (stock) | 1,076,154 | 1,005,282 | 70,879 | 7.1% |
| Deposits from corporate | 272,060 | 269,865 | 2,196 | 0.8% |
| Deposits from individuals | 800,372 | 732,036 | 68,341 | 9.3% |
| Deposits from state | 3,722 | 3,381 | 342 | 10.1% |
| NPL gross | 55,967 | 53,800 | 2,085 | 3.9% |
| % NPL | 5.1% | 5.2% | -0.1 p.p. | |
| Capital (according to local legislation) | ||||
| Capital adequacy ratio | 16.7% | 14.4% | 2.3 p.p. |
* Interest margin for 2017 is adjusted to the new methodology valid from 1.1.2018.
* * Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers.
Result after tax and before impairments and provisions (EURm)


NLB Banka Banja Luka
| NLB Banka A.D., Banja Luka | "on stand alone basis" | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key financial indicators | Change | ||||
| 2018 | 2017 | YoY | |||
| ROE a.t. | 18.7% | 29.3% | -10.6 p.p. | ||
| Interest margin* | 2.79% | 2.78% | 0.0 p.p. | ||
| CIR | 43.5% | 46.1% | -2.6 p.p. | ||
| Cost of risk net (bps)** | -45 | -348 | 302 | ||
| LTD net (%) | 66.8 | 65.6 | 1.2 | ||
| Income statement | Change | ||||
| in 000 EUR | 2018 | 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total net operating income | 29,996 | 27,782 | 2,214 | 8.0% | |
| Net interest income | 19,057 | 18,146 | 911 | 5.0% | |
| Net non-interest income | 10,939 | 9,636 | 1,303 | 13.5% | |
| o/w net fees and commissions |
10,911 | 9,316 | 1,595 | 17.1% | |
| Total costs | -13,046 | -12,803 | -243 | -1.9% | |
| Employee costs | -8,350 | -8,316 | -34 | -0.4% | |
| Other general and administrative expenses | -3,521 | -3,341 | -180 | -5.4% | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -1,175 | -1,146 | -29 | -2.5% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 16,950 | 14,979 | 1,971 | 13.2% | |
| Impairments and provisions | 1,387 | 10,579 | -9,192 | -86.9% | |
| Result after tax | 16,184 | 23,694 | -7,510 | -31.7% | |
| Number of employees | 476 | 475 | 1 | 0.2% |
| Balance sheet | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 000 EUR | 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total assets | 720,509 | 669,949 | 50,562 | 7.5% | |
| Loans to customers (gross stock) | 408,312 | 379,161 | 29,086 | 7.7% | |
| Gross loans to corporate | 176,353 | 155,547 | 20,771 | 13.4% | |
| Gross loans to individuals | 180,933 | 161,829 | 19,085 | 11.8% | |
| Gross loans to state | 51,026 | 61,785 | -10,770 | -17.4% | |
| Loans to customers (net stock) | 384,806 | 349,102 | 35,686 | 10.2% | |
| Financial assets | 107,316 | 116,612 | -9,296 | -8.0% | |
| Deposits from customers (stock) | 575,775 | 531,646 | 43,634 | 8.2% | |
| Deposits from corporate | 135,670 | 121,222 | 14,450 | 11.9% | |
| Deposits from individuals | 402,203 | 363,562 | 39,087 | 10.8% | |
| Deposits from state | 37,902 | 46,862 | -9,903 | -21.1% | |
| NPL gross | 19,199 | 20,151 | -952 | -4.7% | |
| % NPL | 3.2% | 3.7% | -0.5 p.p. | ||
| Capital (according to local legislation) | |||||
| Capital adequacy ratio | 15.6% | 15.3% | 1.2 p.p. |
* Interest margin for 2017 is adjusted to the new methodology valid from 1.1.2018.
* * Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers.



NLB Banka Sarajevo
| NLB Banka d.d., Sarajevo | "on stand alone basis" | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key financial indicators | Change | ||||
| 2018 | 2017 | YoY | |||
| ROE a.t. | 11.6% | 12.8% | -1.3 p.p. | ||
| Interest margin* | 3.20% | 3.46% | -0.3 p.p. | ||
| CIR | 54.8% | 54.8% | 0.0 p.p. | ||
| Cost of risk net (bps)** | 55 | 55 | 0 | ||
| LTD net (%) | 76.1 | 77.7 | -1.6 | ||
| Income statement | Change | ||||
| in 000 EUR | 2018 | 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total net operating income | 25,857 | 25,512 | 345 | 1.4% | |
| Net interest income | 17,586 | 18,059 | -473 | -2.6% | |
| Net non-interest income | 8,271 | 7,453 | 818 | 11.0% | |
| o/w net fees and commissions |
7,405 | 7,100 | 305 | 4.3% | |
| Total costs | -14,170 | -13,973 | -197 | -1.4% | |
| Employee costs | -8,453 | -8,066 | -387 | -4.8% | |
| Other general and administrative expenses | -4,910 | -5,095 | 185 | 3.6% | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -807 | -812 | 5 | 0.6% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 11,687 | 11,539 | 148 | 1.3% | |
| Impairments and provisions | -1,965 | -2,000 | 35 | 1.8% | |
| Result after tax | 8,757 | 8,300 | 457 | 5.5% | |
| Number of employees | 455 | 459 | -4 | -0.9% |
* Interest margin for 2017 is adjusted to the new methodology valid from 1.1.2018.
* * Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers.


| Balance sheet | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 000 EUR | 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total assets | 592,166 | 531,016 | 61,153 | 11.5% | |
| Loans to customers (gross stock) | 391,567 | 368,440 | 23,105 | 6.3% | |
| Gross loans to corporate | 176,368 | 168,563 | 7,793 | 4.6% | |
| Gross loans to individuals | 211,972 | 197,121 | 14,841 | 7.5% | |
| Gross loans to state | 3,227 | 2,756 | 471 | 17.1% | |
| Loans to customers (net stock) | 359,499 | 332,557 | 26,942 | 8.1% | |
| Financial assets | 39,337 | 38,341 | 996 | 2.6% | |
| Deposits from customers (stock) | 472,297 | 427,932 | 44,369 | 10.4% | |
| Deposits from corporate | 127,175 | 112,434 | 14,742 | 13.1% | |
| Deposits from individuals | 280,207 | 260,895 | 19,314 | 7.4% | |
| Deposits from state | 64,915 | 54,603 | 10,313 | 18.9% | |
| NPL gross | 30,805 | 34,014 | -3,218 | -9.5% | |
| % NPL | 5.7% | 6.9% | -1.2 p.p. | ||
| Capital (according to local legislation) | |||||
| Capital adequacy ratio | 16.4% | 15.2% | 2.0 p.p. |

NLB Banka Prishtina
| NLB Banka sh.a., Prishtine | "on stand alone basis" | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key financial indicators | Change | ||||
| 2018 | 2017 | YoY | |||
| ROE a.t. | 21.6% | 22.2% | -0.6 p.p. | ||
| Interest margin* | 4.44% | 4.54% | -0.1 p.p. | ||
| CIR | 36.4% | 38.7% | -2.2 p.p. | ||
| Cost of risk net (bps)** | 89 | 54 | 34 | ||
| LTD net (%) | 79.7 | 76.3 | 3.3 | ||
| Income statement | Change | ||||
| in 000 EUR | 2018 | 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total net operating income | 32,406 | 29,082 | 3,324 | 11.4% | |
| Net interest income | 27,372 | 24,471 | 2,901 | 11.9% | |
| Net non-interest income | 5,034 | 4,611 | 423 | 9.2% | |
| o/w net fees and commissions |
6,131 | 5,452 | 679 | 12.5% | |
| Total costs | -11,801 | -11,242 | -559 | -5.0% | |
| Employee costs | -5,961 | -5,653 | -308 | -5.4% | |
| Other general and administrative expenses | -4,662 | -4,442 | -220 | -5.0% | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -1,178 | -1,147 | -31 | -2.7% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 20,605 | 17,840 | 2,765 | 15.5% | |
| Impairments and provisions | -3,792 | -2,176 | -1,616 | -74.3% | |
| Result after tax | 14,836 | 14,197 | 639 | 4.5% | |
| Number of employees | 476 | 481 | -5 | -1.0% |
| Balance sheet | Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 000 EUR | 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | YoY | |
| Total assets | 668,127 | 584,086 | 84,041 | 14.4% |
| Loans to customers (gross stock) | 493,950 | 414,228 | 79,678 | 19.2% |
| Gross loans to corporate | 315,408 | 262,643 | 52,731 | 20.1% |
| Gross loans to individuals | 178,542 | 151,585 | 26,947 | 17.8% |
| Gross loans to state | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Loans to customers (net stock) | 466,854 | 386,804 | 80,050 | 20.7% |
| Financial assets | 64,733 | 65,228 | -495 | -0.8% |
| Deposits from customers (stock) | 585,851 | 506,672 | 79,179 | 15.6% |
| Deposits from corporate | 154,828 | 122,981 | 31,847 | 25.9% |
| Deposits from individuals | 421,003 | 374,328 | 46,675 | 12.5% |
| Deposits from state | 10,020 | 9,363 | 657 | 7.0% |
| NPL gross | 14,362 | 14,804 | -442 | -3.0% |
| % NPL | 2.4% | 2.9% | -0.5 p.p. | |
| Capital (according to local legislation) | ||||
| Capital adequacy ratio | 14.6% | 15.9% | 0.2 p.p. |
* Interest margin for 2017 is adjusted to the new methodology valid from 1.1.2018.
* * Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers.
Result after tax and before impairments and provisions (EURm)


NLB Banka Podgorica
| NLB Banka a.d., Podgorica | "on stand alone basis" | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key financial indicators | Change | ||||
| 2018 | 2017 | YoY | |||
| ROE a.t. | 14.9% | 7.0% | 7.9 p.p. | ||
| Interest margin* | 4.1% | 3.7% | 0.4 p.p. | ||
| CIR | 51.8% | 57.7% | -5.9 p.p. | ||
| Cost of risk net (bps)** | -41 | 100 | -141 | ||
| LTD net (%) | 79.3 | 73.7 | 5.6 | ||
| Income statement | Change | ||||
| in 000 EUR | 2018 | 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total net operating income | 23,818 | 21,526 | 2,292 | 10.6% | |
| Net interest income | 18,047 | 16,416 | 1,631 | 9.9% | |
| Net non-interest income | 5,771 | 5,110 | 661 | 12.9% | |
| o/w net fees and commissions |
5,926 | 5,469 | 457 | 8.4% | |
| Total costs | -12,340 | -12,414 | 74 | 0.6% | |
| Employee costs | -7,180 | -7,204 | 24 | 0.3% | |
| Other general and administrative expenses | -4,301 | -4,368 | 67 | 1.5% | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -859 | -842 | -17 | -2.0% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 11,478 | 9,112 | 2,366 | 26.0% | |
| Impairments and provisions | -1,267 | -3,807 | 2,540 | 66.7% | |
| Result after tax | 10,033 | 5,385 | 4,648 | 86.3% | |
| Number of employees | 300 | 311 | -11 | -3.5% |
| Balance sheet | Change YoY |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 000 EUR | 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | |||
| Total assets | 489,283 | 457,236 | 32,047 | 7.0% | |
| Loans to customers (gross stock) | 323,914 | 287,102 | 36,768 | 12.8% | |
| Gross loans to corporate | 90,223 | 76,931 | 13,270 | 17.2% | |
| Gross loans to individuals | 203,207 | 176,683 | 26,502 | 15.0% | |
| Gross loans to state | 30,484 | 33,488 | -3,004 | -9.0% | |
| Loans to customers (net stock) | 310,692 | 265,062 | 45,630 | 17.2% | |
| Financial assets | 54,781 | 50,348 | 4,433 | 8.8% | |
| Deposits from customers (stock) | 391,750 | 359,736 | 32,013 | 8.9% | |
| Deposits from corporate | 116,364 | 110,109 | 6,255 | 5.7% | |
| Deposits from individuals | 256,975 | 235,598 | 21,376 | 9.1% | |
| Deposits from state | 18,411 | 14,029 | 4,382 | 31.2% | |
| NPL gross | 20,627 | 31,054 | -10,427 | -33.6% | |
| % NPL | 5.2% | 8.0% | -2.8 p.p. | ||
| Capital (according to local legislation) | |||||
| Capital adequacy ratio | 16.2% | 14.9% | 1.8 p.p. |
* Interest margin for 2017 is adjusted to the new methodology valid from 1.1.2018.
* * Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers.

Result after tax and before impairments and provisions

NLB Banka Beograd
| NLB Banka a.d., Beograd | "on stand alone basis" | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key financial indicators | Change | ||||
| 2018 | 2017 | YoY | |||
| ROE a.t. | 7.9% | 6.7% | 1.2 p.p. | ||
| Interest margin* | 4.92% | 5.79% | -0.9 p.p. | ||
| CIR | 76.2% | 77.8% | -1.6 p.p. | ||
| Cost of risk net (bps)** | -51 | 13 | -64 | ||
| LTD net (%) | 90.3 | 91.9 | -1.6 | ||
| Income statement | Change | ||||
| in 000 EUR | 2018 | 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total net operating income | 23,596 | 20,999 | 2,597 | 12.4% | |
| Net interest income | 19,764 | 17,984 | 1,780 | 9.9% | |
| Net non-interest income | 3,832 | 3,015 | 817 | 27.1% | |
| o/w net fees and commissions |
4,998 | 4,131 | 867 | 21.0% | |
| Total costs | -17,981 | -16,336 | -1,645 | -10.1% | |
| Employee costs | -9,498 | -8,329 | -1,169 | -14.0% | |
| Other general and administrative expenses | -7,270 | -6,734 | -536 | -8.0% | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -1,213 | -1,273 | 60 | 4.7% | |
| Result before impairments and provisions | 5,615 | 4,663 | 952 | 20.4% | |
| Impairments and provisions | -377 | -919 | 542 | 59.0% | |
| Result after tax | 5,202 | 3,731 | 1,471 | 39.4% | |
| Number of employees | 458 | 431 | 27 | 6.3% |
* Interest margin for 2017 is adjusted to the new methodology valid from 1.1.2018.
* * Calculated as credit impairments and provisions over average net loans to customers.
Result after tax and before impairments and provisions Gross loans to customers split (31 Dec 2018, EURm) (EURm)

| Balance sheet | Change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in 000 EUR | 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | YoY | ||
| Total assets | 484,492 | 370,807 | 113,683 | 30.7% | |
| Loans to customers (gross stock) | 327,847 | 251,056 | 76,766 | 30.6% | |
| Gross loans to corporate | 198,833 | 152,063 | 46,756 | 30.7% | |
| Gross loans to individuals | 127,629 | 98,615 | 29,002 | 29.4% | |
| Gross loans to state | 1,385 | 378 | 1,008 | - | |
| Loans to customers (net stock) | 318,792 | 238,795 | 79,999 | 33.5% | |
| Financial assets | 58,285 | 56,623 | 1,666 | 2.9% | |
| Deposits from customers (stock) | 352,940 | 259,755 | 92,754 | 35.7% | |
| Deposits from corporate | 160,683 | 109,393 | 51,273 | 46.9% | |
| Deposits from individuals | 182,702 | 144,254 | 38,016 | 26.4% | |
| Deposits from state | 9,555 | 6,108 | 3,465 | 56.7% | |
| NPL gross | 9,884 | 15,184 | -5,316 | -35.0% | |
| % NPL | 2.4% | 5.0% | -2.6 p.p. | ||
| Capital (according to local legislation) | |||||
| Capital adequacy ratio | 16.7% | 20.1% | 2.3 p.p. |

Non-core markets and activities
| in EURm consolidated |
2018 | 2017 | Change | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income |
9.3 | 16.8 | -7.5 | -44% |
| Net non-interest income |
5.2 | 23.2 | -18.0 | -78% |
| Total net operating income |
14.5 | 40.0 | -25.5 | -64% |
| Total costs | -18.2 | -21.7 | 3.5 | 16% |
| Result before impairments and provisions | -3.7 | 18.2 | -22.0 | - |
| o/w non-recurring items |
- | 10.7 | - | - |
| Impairments and provisions |
11.9 | 12.9 | -1.0 | -8% |
| Result before tax |
8.2 | 31.2 | -22.9 | -74% |
| 31 Dec 2018 | 31 Dec 2017 | Change | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment assets | 263.7 | 391.3 | -127.6 | -33% |
| Net loans to customers |
160.9 | 269.9 | -109.0 | -40% |
| Gross loans to customers |
288.6 | 448.5 | -159.9 | -36% |
| Investment Property and Property & Equipment received for repayment of loans |
68.5 | 81.6 | -13.0 | -16% |
| Other assets |
34.3 | 39.9 | -5.6 | -14% |
| Deposits from customers |
9.6 | 10.2 | -0.6 | -6% |
| Non-performing loans (gross) |
179.7 | 279.7 | -100.0 | -36% |
• The Non-core result before tax was EUR 8.2 million – 74% lower YoY due to reduction of non-core portfolio and consequently reduction of net interest and net non-interest income.
- The cost base was reduced by 16% YoY to EUR 18.2 million due to the continued divestment process.
- Segment assets decreased by 33% YoY.

Other activities
| in EURm consolidated |
2018 | 2017 | Change YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net operating income | 4.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 13% |
| Total costs | -9.6 | -11.5 | 1.9 | 17% |
| Result before impairments and provisions | -4.8 | -7.2 | 2.5 | 34% |
| Impairments and provisions | 2.4 | -10.4 | 12.9 | - |
| Result before tax | -2.3 | -17.7 | 15.3 | 0.9 |
- Other activities include the categories whose operating results cannot be allocated to individual segments (i.e. external realization of IT, costs of restructuring, the expenses for vacant business premises…).
- In 2017 established HR provisions in the amount of EUR 8.6 million and provisions for legal risk in the amount of EUR 1.8 million, while in 2018 release of legal risk provisions in the amount of EUR 2.3 million.


Appendix 2: Macro Overview

NLB Group – Macro overview
NLB d.d. & 6 subsidiary banks operate in Slovenia (EU member) & 5 SEE countries (convergence to EU)
| EUR | |
|---|---|
| GDP (EURbn) | 45.7 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 4.5 |
| Population (m) | 2.1 |
| indebtedness(1) Household |
22.4% |
| Credit ratings (S&P / Moody's / Fitch) |
A+ / Baa1 / A |
| EUR(3) | |
|---|---|
| GDP (EURbn) | 17.4 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 3.0 |
| Population (m) | 3.5 |
| indebtedness(1) Household |
30.9% |
| Credit ratings (S&P / Moody's / Fitch) |
B / B3 / n.a. |
| EUR | |
|---|---|
| GDP (EURbn) | 4.6 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 4.2 |
| Population (m) | 0.6 |
| Household indebtedness(1) |
27.5% |
| Credit ratings (S&P / Moody's / Fitch) |
B+ / B1 / n.a. |

| EUR | Serbia | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (EURbn) | 45.7 | GDP (EURbn) | |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 4.5 | Real GDP growth (%) | |
| Population (m) | 2.1 | Population (m) | |
| indebtedness(1) Household |
22.4% | Household | indebtedness(1) |
| Credit ratings (S&P / Moody's / Fitch) |
EUR A+ / Baa1 / A |
Credit (S&P / Moody's |
ratings / Fitch) |
| Kosovo | |
|---|---|
| GDP (EURbn) | 6.7 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 4.1 |
| Population (m) | 1.8 |
| indebtedness(1) Household |
15% |
| Credit ratings (S&P / Moody's / Fitch) |
n.a. / n.a. / n.a. |
| Macedonia | |
|---|---|
| GDP (EURbn) | 10.4 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 2.3 |
| Population (m) | 2.1 |
| Household indebtedness(1) |
34.5% |
| Credit ratings (S&P / Moody's / Fitch) |
BB- / n.a. / BB |

Source: IMF, World Bank, Central banks data, National Statistics Offices, FocusEconomics.
Note: GDP volume and growth estimated for 2018; (1) Includes households loans as % of GDP, Q3 2018, own calculation; (2) Bosnia and Herzegovina is comprised of 2 entities, The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska; (3) Official currency is BAM – Bosnia-Herzegovina Convertible Mark, pegged to EUR.
Macro Overview
Economic data Fiscal data Monetary data
- Most countries are likely to grow at around 3% - 4% if supported by loose monetary conditions, fiscal easing and solid domestic demand.
- Inflation is likely to remain within target ranges throughout the region.
-
Economic growth will be sensitive to a potential slowdown in the Eurozone and tighter global financial conditions.
-
Environment for necessary reforms seen slightly improved.
- Fiscal imbalances should not aggravate general government borrowing position and public debt seems manageable, nevertheless caution still recommended.
-
Large current account deficits and geographical contagion are important drivers to capital flows.
-
Positive momentum for higher lending volumes seen ahead.
- As loan to deposit ratios remain firm, a future expansion of the regional banking sectors should not be capped from a refinancing perspective.
- A more pronounced slowdown in Europe or larger capital outflows from EM would moderate favourable trends in the region.

Real GDP growth, %

KEY FINDINGS:
Highest YoY increase of economic growth was registered by Serbia, growing from 2% to 4.4% in 2018, followed by Macedonia (from 0.2% to 2.3% in 2018).
Five countries with above 4% growth of GDP in 2018.
Overall, real GDP growth in the region will remain strong, well above the EMU.
| Real GDP growth, % | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Macedonia | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Kosovo | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Serbia | 2.6 | -1.8 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Montenegro | 3.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Slovenia | -1.1 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| EMU | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Average inflation rate, %

KEY FINDINGS:
There seems to be a favourable inflation development in all countries. Minor pressures noted in Serbia, yet with no material impact on the local currency.
CPI continues to be driven by exogenous factors, nonetheless robust domestic demand is expected to lift inflation over the medium term.
The inflation rates are projected to remain stable close to 2.0 %.
| Average inflation rate, % |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | -0.1 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Macedonia | 2.8 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Kosovo | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Serbia | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Montenegro | 2.2 | -0.7 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Slovenia | 1.8 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| EMU | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Unemployment rate, %

KEY FINDINGS:
Despite strong growth, unemployment is projected to stay at relatively high levels across the whole region.
The biggest improvement recorded by Serbia, followed by Macedonia, Slovenia and Montenegro, while in BiH a slight increase in unemployment is foreseen.
Official unemployment rates seems to be affected by various factors such as shrinking labour force on one side and permanent unemployment on the other.
| Unemployment rate, % |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.7 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 26.1 | 26.5 | 26.8 |
| Macedonia | 29.0 | 28.0 | 26.1 | 23.7 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 20.4 | 20.0 |
| Kosovo | 30.0 | 35.3 | 32.9 | 27.5 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| Serbia | 22.2 | 19.2 | 17.9 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| Montenegro | 19.5 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 14.8 |
| Slovenia | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| EMU | 12.0 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.6 |
Current account, % GDP

KEY FINDINGS:
Huge difference between countries due to various reasons. CA deficit being covered either by capital inflows or remittances.
Montenegro continues to underperform heavily in the region.
In general, no reduction of current account deficits can be expected in the near future.
| Current Account, % GDP |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | -5.3 | -7.4 | -5.4 | -4.9 | -4.8 | -5.1 | -5.5 | -4.9 |
| Macedonia | -1.6 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -2.7 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -1.6 |
| Kosovo | -3.4 | -6.9 | -8.6 | -7.9 | -6.6 | -6.9 | -7.5 | -7.2 |
| Serbia | -6.1 | -6.0 | -4.7 | -3.1 | -5.7 | -5.3 | -5.2 | -4.8 |
| Montenegro | -11.4 | -12.4 | -11.0 | -16.2 | -16.3 | -16.3 | -16.0 | -13.8 |
| Slovenia | 4.4 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| EMU | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
Int. reserves, import coverage in months

KEY FINDINGS:
Int. reserves expressed as import coverage in months remain stable and seem sufficient.
Favourable trendline adds to the stability of foreign exchange rate in Serbia, Macedonia and BiH. Unless major geopolitical tensions realize, stable currency regimes remain the baseline scenario.
| Int. Reserves (months of imports) |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 6.2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8 | 8 |
| Macedonia | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Kosovo | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Serbia | 9.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 |
| Montenegro | 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
Source: FocusEconomics
Note: Estimates for 2018, Consensus Forecasts for 2019 and 2020
Macro Overview – Fiscal data
Fiscal Balance, % GDP

KEY FINDINGS:
A slight deterioration in the fiscal performance throughout the region expected for 2019-20.
BiH and Slovenia are expected to keep balanced public finances, while budget deficit will stay at relatively high levels in Macedonia, Kosovo and Montenegro.
| Fiscal balance, % GDP | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | -1.8 | -2.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Macedonia | -3.8 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -2.6 |
| Kosovo | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -2.3 | -2.3 |
| Serbia | -5.3 | -6.2 | -3.6 | -1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Montenegro | -4.5 | -0.7 | -6.2 | -6.2 | -7.0 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -0.1 |
| Slovenia | -13.8 | -5.8 | -3.3 | -1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| EMU | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
Sources: IMF, Eurostat, FocusEconomics
Note: Estimates for 2018, Consensus Forecasts for 2019 and 2020
Macro Overview – Fiscal data
Public Debt, % GDP

KEY FINDINGS:
Public debt varies intensively between the countries.
Slow convergence of public indebtedness is projected. Reduction of public debt is expected in BiH, Serbia, Montenegro and Slovenia, while an increase is forecasted for Macedonia and Kosovo.
All the countries in the region are bellow the EMU level.
| Public debt, % GDP | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 44.6 | 45.0 | 45.5 | 44.1 | 39.5 | 38.3 | 37.4 | 36.3 |
| Macedonia | 34.0 | 38.0 | 38.1 | 39.5 | 39.3 | 39.9 | 43.6 | 43.7 |
| Kosovo | 16.0 | 16.9 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 21.2 | 21.9 | 24.2 | 26.2 |
| Serbia | 61.1 | 71.9 | 76.0 | 73.1 | 62.5 | 56.7 | 55.9 | 53.1 |
| Montenegro | 58.7 | 63.4 | 68.8 | 66.4 | 67.2 | 74.2 | 73.6 | 71.4 |
| Slovenia | 70.4 | 80.3 | 82.6 | 78.6 | 73.6 | 71.0 | 67.5 | 65.5 |
| EMU | 91.5 | 91.7 | 89.8 | 89.1 | 86.8 | 86.3 | 82.0 | 79.8 |
Sources: IMF, Eurostat, FocusEconomics
Note: Estimates for 2018, Consensus Forecasts for 2019 and 2020
Loans growth (NFC + Households), %

KEY FINDINGS:
Encouraging levels of credit growth in both corporate and retail segment, much higher than in EMU.
Kosovo (10.9%), Serbia (9.5%) and Montenegro (9.1%) leading the loans growth in the region.
In Serbia, healthy loan dynamics driven by rising consumption, fixed investments and more proactive banking sector approach.
| Loan growth (NFC + Households), % |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 |
| Macedonia | 6.5 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 7.3 |
| Kosovo | 2.4 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| Serbia | -4.8 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 9.5 |
| Montenegro | 5.2 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| Slovenia | -21.0 | -12.4 | -5.1 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| EMU | -2.2 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
Sources: National Central banks, ECB, Own calculations
Total Loans (NBS), % GDP

KEY FINDINGS:
Entire region below EMU average with an excellent growth potential.
Stable loan to GDP ratio in BiH and Macedonia.
In Slovenia and Montenegro, the share of loans in GDP exhibits negative trend, however stabilized last year.
In Kosovo, the share of loans in GDP is steadily increasing, but still the lowest among peers.
| Total loans, % GDP | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 59.8 | 60.2 | 59.0 | 57.5 | 58.7 | 59.4 |
| Macedonia | 47.1 | 49.3 | 51.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 | 48.1 |
| Kosovo | 33.9 | 33.8 | 34.8 | 36.7 | 38.7 | 41.5 |
| Serbia | 57.0 | 61.0 | 62.3 | 59.1 | 60.5 | 57.4 |
| Montenegro | 71.8 | 68.5 | 65.8 | 64.0 | 62.8 | 65.9 |
| Slovenia | 67.2 | 57.3 | 52.2 | 50.9 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| EMU | 97.7 | 94.8 | 92.5 | 91.6 | 90.0 | 87.7 |
Sources: National Central banks, ECB, Own calculations
Note: 2018 data for Q3; EMU Total loans to GDP includes only NFC + Households loans
Deposits growth (NFC + Households), %

KEY FINDINGS:
There are substantial differences in deposit growth numbers.
Serbia (14.9%) leads the deposit growth in the region in 2018, followed by strong growth of other countries in the region.
Montenegro's growth moderated after high growth in the previous years.
Underdeveloped capital markets participating importantly to deposit growth record.
| Deposit growth (NFC + Households), % |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIH | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| Macedonia | 5.8 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 9.6 |
| Kosovo | 9.4 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 9.2 |
| Serbia | 3.3 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 14.9 |
| Montenegro | 2.5 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 3.2 |
| Slovenia | 0.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| EMU | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
Sources: National Central banks, ECB, Own calculations
Total Deposits (NBS), % GDP

KEY FINDINGS:
Stable deposits to GDP ratio in Serbia, Macedonia and Slovenia.
Growing trend in the rest of the region with the highest increase in Kosovo.
Across the whole region the share of deposits in GDP is lower than in EMU.
| Total deposits, % GDP | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiH | 53.2 | 56.2 | 57.8 | 59.4 | 62.7 | 65.6 |
| Macedonia | 51.6 | 54.2 | 54.6 | 53.7 | 55.0 | 55.3 |
| Kosovo | 46.0 | 45.6 | 46.6 | 47.9 | 48.5 | 52.3 |
| Serbia | 41.6 | 45.2 | 46.6 | 46.1 | 47.6 | 44.8 |
| Montenegro | 62.4 | 66.7 | 72.4 | 76.1 | 76.0 | 76.3 |
| Slovenia | 62.2 | 65.0 | 64.7 | 64.8 | 64.0 | 64.1 |
| EMU | 81.8 | 82.9 | 82.5 | 84.0 | 84.5 | 84.3 |
Sources: National Central banks, ECB, Own calculations
Note: 2018 data for Q3; EMU Total deposits to GDP includes only NFC + Households deposits

Appendix 3: EC committments

EC Commitments
Pursuant to EC decision of 10 August 2018, NLB and RoS must comply with certain commitments until specified deadlines.
Risk management and credit policies commitment (minimum specified RoE on either individual loan or each client relationship): currently ceased to apply due to divestment of more than 50% plus one share of the RoS shareholding in NLB, but could apply again from a specified date on and until RoS reduces its shareholding in NLB to the Blocking Minority.
NLB must also comply with the following:
- issue Tier 2 instrument by end of 2019, except in case of severe market disruptions (when approval of the Commission is needed for nonissuance of the instrument), to investors who are totally independent from RS;
- close 15 outlets in Slovenia by end of June 2019;
- EC decision also states that if RoS shareholding in NLB is not reduced to Blocking Minority until end of 2018, NLB has to divest its insurance subsidiary NLB Vita by a specified deadline.
Commitments valid until 31 December 2019:
- NLB will not acquire any stake in any undertaking (acquisition ban).
- RoS will:
- o allocate all of the seats and voting rights on the SB and its committees to independent experts;
- o ensure each state-owned bank remains a separate economic unit with independent powers of decision;
- o ensure non-discrimination of non-state-owned companies.
Commitments valid until RoS reduces its shareholding in NLB to Blocking Minority, except for Monitoring Trustee commitment which applies until end of 2019):
- Reduction of Costs: capped at EUR 297.7 million;
- Divestment of Non-core Subsidiaries: NLB will not re-enter business and activities which it had to divest;
- Bans of Advertising and Aggressive commercial strategies;
- Capital Repayment Mechanism: based on audited year-end accounts, NLB will pay to its shareholders for each fiscal year in form of dividend at least the amount of net income for such fiscal year, subject to regulations and capital requirement on the consolidated level;
- Monitoring Trustee;
- Divestiture Trustee.
Other commitments set out in 2013 EC decision (e.g. ban on cross-border business, reduction of balance sheet) no longer apply.


Appendix 4: Financial statements

NLB Group Income statement
| (EURm) | YE2017 | YE2018 | YoY | 4Q2017 | 3Q2018 | 4Q2018 | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest and similar income |
363.7 | 358.9 | -1% | 92.8 | 91.6 | 92.1 | 1% | -1% |
| Interest and similar expense |
-54.4 | -45.9 | 16% | -12.2 | -11.4 | -11.1 | 3% | 9% |
| Net interest income |
309.3 | 312.9 | 1% | 80.6 | 80.2 | 81.0 | 1% | 1% |
| Fee and commission income |
207.9 | 218.6 | 5% | 54.0 | 56.0 | 56.5 | 1% | 5% |
| Fee and commission expense |
-52.5 | -57.9 | -10% | -13.8 | -15.6 | -15.9 | -2% | -15% |
| Net fee and commission income | 155.4 | 160.6 | 3% | 40.2 | 40.4 | 40.7 | 1% | 1% |
| Dividend income | 0.2 | 0.1 | -34% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -25% | -65% |
| Net trading income & gains less losses from inv. securities |
26.7 | 14.7 | -45% | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.1 | -38% | -27% |
| Other operating income |
-3.9 | 4.9 | / | -2.6 | 0.3 | -0.5 | / | 82% |
| Net Banking Income |
487.7 | 493.3 | 1% | 122.4 | 125.9 | 124.3 | -1% | 2% |
| Staff costs |
-164.5 | -165.1 | 0% | -43.9 | -41.1 | -43.2 | -5% | 2% |
| Administrative expenses | -92.4 | -96.3 | -4% | -26.0 | -22.5 | -28.4 | -26% | -9% |
| Depreciation and amortization |
-27.8 | -27.2 | 2% | -7.0 | -6.9 | -6.7 | 2% | 4% |
| Operating Cost |
-284.7 | -288.7 | -1% | -76.9 | -70.4 | -78.3 | -11% | -2% |
| Pre-Provision Income |
203.0 | 204.6 | 1% | 45.6 | 55.5 | 46.0 | -17% | 1% |
| Impairments and provisions for credit risk | 43.5 | 30.2 | -31% | 6.6 | 7.6 | 7.0 | -8% | 7% |
| Other impairments and provisions |
-13.9 | -6.9 | 51% | -14.3 | -3.0 | -2.7 | 10% | 81% |
| Gains less losses from capital investments in subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures |
4.8 | 5.4 | 14% | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -14% | 28% |
| Profit before Tax |
237.3 | 233.3 | -2% | 38.9 | 61.7 | 51.7 | -16% | 33% |
| Income tax expense |
-4.0 | -21.8 | / | 3.2 | -6.0 | -5.1 | 15% | / |
| Non Controlling Interests |
8.2 | 7.9 | -4% | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | -44% | 27% |
| Net Profit / (Loss) Attributable to Shareholders | 225.1 | 203.6 | -10% | 41.1 | 53.5 | 45.3 | -15% | 10% |

NLB Group Balance Sheet
| (EURm) | YE2017 | YE2018 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | |||
| Cash and balances with Central Banks | 1,256.5 | 1,588.3 | 26.4% |
| Financial instruments |
2,963.4 | 3,399.2 | 14.7% |
| o/w Trading Book |
72.2 | 63.6 | -11.9% |
| o/w Non -trading Book |
2,891.2 | 3,335.6 | 15.4% |
| Loans and advances to banks (net) | 510.1 | 118.7 | -76.7% |
| o/w gross loans |
510.7 | 118.8 | -76.7% |
| o/w provisions | -0.6 | -0.1 | -78.1% |
| Loans and advances to customers | 6,994.5 | 7,148.4 | 2.2% |
| o/w gross loans |
7,641.2 | 7,627.5 | -0.2% |
| - Corporates |
3,705.0 | 3,540.4 | -4.4% |
| - State |
466.0 | 360.5 | -22.6% |
| - Retail |
3,470.2 | 3,726.5 | 7.4% |
| o/w provisions | -646.8 | -479.0 | -25.9% |
| Investments in associates and JV | 43.8 | 37.1 | -15.1% |
| Goodwill | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0% |
| Other intagible assets |
31.4 | 31.4 | 0.0% |
| Property, plant and equipment |
188.4 | 177.4 | -5.8% |
| Investment property |
51.8 | 58.6 | 13.1% |
| Other assets |
194.4 | 177.1 | -8.9% |
| Total Assets | 12,237.7 | 12,740.0 | 4.1% |
| LIABILITIES & EQUITY | |||
| Deposits from banks |
40.6 | 26.8 | -34.1% |
| Deposits from customers |
9,879.0 | 10,464.0 | 5.9% |
| - Corporates |
2,260.1 | 2,337.3 | 3.4% |
| - State |
256.0 | 261.1 | 2.0% |
| - Retail |
7,362.9 | 7,865.6 | 6.8% |
| Borrowings | 353.9 | 320.3 | -9.5% |
| Debt securities in issue |
- | - | - |
| Subordinated liabilities |
27.4 | 15.1 | -45.0% |
| Other liabilities |
248.7 | 256.5 | 3.1% |
| Total Liabilities | 10,549.6 | 11,082.6 | 5.1% |
| Shareholders' funds | 1,653.6 | 1,616.2 | -2.3% |
| Non Controlling Interests |
34.6 | 41.2 | 19.1% |
| Total Equity | 1,688.2 | 1,657.4 | -1.8% |
| Total Liabilities & Equity |
12,237.7 | 12,740.0 | 4.1% |
