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NEURIZER LTD — Investor Presentation 2017
Mar 21, 2017
65442_rns_2017-03-21_9c6073f2-7fe7-4fc4-8ce8-5fccac44a6a9.pdf
Investor Presentation
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March 2017
Cheap Reliable Energy
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Leigh Creek Energy Limited (ASX:LCK) 2017
Leigh Creek Energy Disclaimer
This presentation has been completed by Leigh Creek Energy Limited. It may contain forward looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with the energy industry. It’s believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, but they may be affected by a variety of changes in underlying assumptions which could cause actual results or trends to differ, including but not limited to: price fluctuations, actual demand, currency fluctuations, drilling & production results, reserve estimates, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, legislative, fiscal & regulatory developments, economic & financial market conditions in various countries & regions, political risks, project delay or advancement, approvals & cost estimates amongst other items, & the cumulative impact of items.
This presentation may also contain non-IFRS measures that are unaudited, but are derived from & reconciled to the audited accounts. All references to dollars, cents or $ in this presentation are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated.
Mineral Resource ComplianceStatement
Estimates of Mineral Resources reported in this announcement were initially reported & released to the ASX on 8 Dec 2015. We are not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the 8 Dec 2015 announcement & all the material assumptions & technical parameters underpinning the estimates in that announcement continue to apply & have not materially changed.
Gas ResourcesComplianceStatement
Gas Resources reported in this announcement were initially reported & released to the ASX on 8 Jan 2016. We are not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the 8 Jan 2016 announcement & that all the material assumptions & technical parameters underpinning the estimates in that announcement continue to apply & have not materially changed. All estimates are based on the deterministic method for estimation of petroleum resources.
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Table of contents
| Section 1 | Market Opportunity | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Section 2 | LCK Solution | 9 | |
| Section 3 | ISG Technology | 12 | |
| Section 4 | LCK Project Status | 16 | |
| Section 5 | Legal and Political Environment | 23 | |
| Section 6 | Corporate and Financial | 26 |
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Market Opportunity Section 1 |
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Right market, right time, right place
The right market, the right time:
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Stability of energy supplies in crisis
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Dramatically rising power and gas prices
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Longterm supply constraints
The right place:
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Ideal project location for ISG
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Strong local demand from major customers
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Legal and regulatory certainty in South Australia
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Very supportive government
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Expensive and Unreliable Power in SA
The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) is in turmoil, with South Australia at the epicentre. Prices have risen despite falling demand, averaging A$96/MWh since July, 2016.
Electricity Futures Price Quarterly ($/MWh)
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Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020
Vic Jul-16 Vic Oct-16 SA Jul-16 SA Oct-16
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Grid stability is becoming an important concern due to:
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The National Electricity Market on the day of the South Australian Blackout, 28 September 2016
Intermittent power
Renewable mandates and certificates
Withdrawal of both base-load and peak-load fossil supply
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Regional demand for500-900MW
LCEP is near major energy consumers:
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Olympic Dam(Cu/U)
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Prominent Hill (Cu)
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Carrapateena (Cu)
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Whyalla (Steel and Hydromet)
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Port Pirie (Pb)
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Central Eyre (Iron Ore)
As well as the metropolitan demand centre in Adelaide.
Leigh Creek Energy Project (LCEP)
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Moomba
Prominent Hill
Olympic Dam
Port Pirie
Whyalla
Central Eyre
Adelaide
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Transmission Lines Gas Pipelines
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Gas prices rising, LNG Exports driving demand
SA Daily Gas Consumption for Power (TJ) and Price (A$/GJ)
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200 10
SA Gas Price (RHS)
160 8
120 6
80 4
40 2
0 0
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Despite gas demand for electricity generation falling, prices have more than doubled since 2014 to A$9/GJ inAdelaide.
Other States are limiting supply of new gas. SA is the exception.
Further gas shortfalls are anticipated as the 3 LNG plants in QLD ramp up.
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LCK Solution
Section 2 |
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TheLeighCreekEnergySolution
Plentiful energy from in-situ gasification (ISG) of coal will permit, in a staged development, low cost domestic supply of:
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Electricity – reliable baseload for SA
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Natural Gas – into the East Coast system
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Further development – fertilisers and explosives
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LCK’s primary focus is to provide reliable electricity supply to major energy consumers in SA and the metropolitan demand centre in Adelaide.
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2,964 PJ Syngas Low cost
Natural Gas
Syngas Production baseload
into pipeline
Resource through ISG Electricity
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ISG Technology Section 3 |
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In-Situ Gasification(ISG)
The ISG process converts coal to syngas underground and then brought to the surface. The syngas is processed and can be used in a number of ways:
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Power
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Methane
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Methanol
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Fertiliser
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Others
Standard oilfield equipment is used in the process.
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Syngascomposition and uses
ISG produces a syngas which contains a variety of components. The composition and energy content changes depending on whether the gasifier is Air-blown or Oxygen-blown. Oxygen-blown produces a richer gas but requires more capital. The[(1)] are: main fuel components
3-15% Methane – CH 4
12 GJ synthetic natural gas
- 10-20% Carbon monoxide –CO
590 litres of ammonia
20-35% Hydrogen –H2
490 litres of methanol
1t LC Coal 15 GJ Syngas
260 litres of liquid fuels
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2 MWh electrical
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- (1) HRL Process Modelling of ISG for Leigh Creek Coal, December 2015
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TheworldwideexperienceofISG
Commercial Operations:
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Angren, Uzbekistan: 60 years of operation
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Eskom, Majuba, South Africa – co-firing power station with syngas
North American Experience:
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40 years of trials & demonstration
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Multiple sites, techniques, outcomes
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Utilised standard oil-field
Australian Experience:
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Linc Energy – demonstration facility operated for 11 years
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Carbon Energy – demonstration facility operated for 5 years
Carbon Energy Bloodwood Creek Project
Queensland Government’s Chief Scientist, Dr. Geoff Garrett AO , confirmed that Carbon Energy:
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Met the key recommendations of the government appointed Independent Scientific Panel (ISP).
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“It is clear that Carbon Energy has contributed to the collective understanding of UCG and the conditions under which the operation is likely to be both safe and successful.”
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Demonstrated safe and effective decommissioning and completing of a plan for rehabilitation which were independently reviewed by experts appointed by the DEHP.
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LeighCreekCoalField–idealforISG
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Leigh Creek is an existing mine site. It produced coal for 60 years. Coal was supplied to the Port Augusta power station, 250km away.
Ideal Location with existing infrastructure:
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Remote from majorpopulations
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Self-contained groundwater system
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Power transmission lines
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Sealed road, airport, rail, water
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Major gas pipeline 125kmaway
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Township of Leigh Creek
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LCK Project Status Section 4|
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Gas and Coal Resources
Coal resource: JORC 2012: 377 million tonnes inferred.[(1)] SYNGAS resource: SPE-PRMS: 2,964 PJ 2C.[(2)]
| Category | 1C | 2C | 3C |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYNGAS Resource (PJ) | 2,748 | 2,964 | 3,303 |
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Resources will likely convert from 2C to 2P Reserves once gas demonstration is completed in 2017.
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Options include power production and/or natural gas production.
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Offering 25-50 years of production, depending on production profile.
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In the whole of Australia, the Economically Demonstrated Resources (EDR) totals is 113,193PJ.[(3)]
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(1) Refer ASX release dated December 8, 2015
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(2) Refer ASX release dated January 8, 2016
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(3) Source: ABS, Australian System of National Accounts, 30-Jun-2016
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Successful Scoping Study Completed
LCK completed a successful Scoping Study in January 2017. It covered a number of development cases for further processing of Syngas. The key elements were:
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Power generation case ranging from 150MW to 550MW
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Natural gas production case ranging from 20PJpa to 80PJpa.
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Based on the results of the Study, it is anticipated that a upon completion of the Pre-Commercial Demonstration and analysis of results.
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Conclusions: Cases for both power and natural gas are:
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Major portion of the current 2C Resource could be converted to a 2P Reserve
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Robust technically and financially
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Support advancing to the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) phase and PCD
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The LCK Board has approved the immediate commencement of a Pre-Feasibility Study on the LCEP.
There are no guarantees that a specific option can be supported by the Company’s current 2C Syngas Resource of 2,964PJ.
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Government funding supports
Federal R&D tax offset on PCD spending:
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Advance Finding Certificate awarded from Federal Government on eligible activities on our Pre Commercial Demonstration
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Estimated expenditure on eligible activities totals A$21m
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Implied cash rebate totalling A$9m
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$4m R&D working capital finance facility secured with CBA
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Furthermore, LCK has A$45m in available tax losses
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Next steps forLCK
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Stage 1 Stage 2 Appraisal Gas Commercial Demonstration JORC 2012 resources Approvals Approvals Gas certification Construction Construction Site environmental Cold and hot Cold & hot characterisation commissioning commissioning Syngas demonstration Electricity and Syngas in 2017 production (2020) Plant expansions
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ISGdemonstration
Demonstration willshow community and government that ISG can operate:
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Safely
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With minimal impact to the environment
Data Obtained from Demonstration Allows:
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Government to approve Commercial Project
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Development of safety and environmental controls
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Optimisation of plant design
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Operating costs discovery
Crucially, for a total spend of A$20m, it is anticipated that a major portion of the current 2C Contingent Syngas Resource could be converted to a 2P Syngas Reserve.
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Key Engineering Contracts Awarded
LCK PCD Engineering Design
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Production well
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Gas analyser
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Condensate separation tank
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Thermal oxidiser
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Condensate buffer tanks
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Generators and diesel storage
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Water injection facility
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Cold Vent/Safety Vent
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Access Road
LCK has awarded the contract for the Thermal Oxidiser and Cold Vent package to Gasco Pty Ltd.
LCK corporate video and ISG explanation: https://youtu.be/w1-4gYzT8Ek
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LCK PCD Design
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The Carbon Energy
Demonstration Facility
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Legal and Political Environment Section 5|
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SouthAustraliaisanexcellentjurisdiction
South Australia consistently ranks near the top of the world’s mining provinces as a place to do business.[(1)]
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Clear title and development pathway
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ISG is included in existing legislation
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Government support for Unconventional Gas
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Native Title process well understood
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Highly skilled labour in need of employment
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Identified as the state which supported natural resource development the most.
Leigh Creek Energy Project (LCEP)
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Darwin
Brisbane
Perth
Sydney
Adelaide
Canberra
Melbourne
Hobart
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SA has a roadmap for unconventional gas, has encouraged a migration of gas companies into the state, and has established grants to assist in the proving of new resources.
(1) Fraser Institute 2015 survey placed SA 10[th] out of 109 regions worldwide
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South Australian Government Support
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SA Premier visit to Shanghai, China, April 11, 2016:
Achievements highlighted by Weatherill included a heads of agreement signed by the Shanghai Electric Power Generation Group and Leigh Creek Energy Ltd to explore the joint development of a gas-fired power station in South Australia. “The agreement is positive for the Upper Spencer Gulf, providing hope for towns such as Port Augusta, Whyalla and the northern regional town of Leigh Creek,” Weatherill said.
29 April 2016:
Jay Weatherill “ … the Leigh Creek project remained subject to rigorous environmental impact assessments before it Premier of South could progress further”. Australia “We have a very effective regulatory framework in SA and the merits of the LCK project will be assessed against that framework, not a political decision …”
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30 Aug 2016:
Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis has delivered a swipe at his Labor colleagues in Victoria – and spruiked for the business of unconventional gas miners – after Victoria opted to permanently ban fracking in that state.
“I strongly believe that the approval or otherwise of gas exploration and extraction projects should be Tom Koutsantonis left to independent experts, rather than to politicians. We have the best regulatory systems in the Treasurer and world in this country and those systems should be trusted to protect the environment, the agriculture industry and communities. This decision is bad news for the National Electricity Market because new Minister for Mineral sources of supply of gas will continue to be constrained.” Resources and Energy He used the Victorian ban to once again position SA as “open for business” for the controversial extraction method. “I encourage any exploration companies affected by this decision to consider coming to South Australia, where the assessment and approval of projects is left to expert regulators”.
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Corporate & Financial Section 6 |
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LCK Corporate Summary
| LCK Capital Structure | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares | 265.9m | |||
| Options | 40.4m | |||
| Market Cap @ A$0.20 | A$ | 53.2m | ||
| Cash (as at 31-Dec-16) | A$ | 3.0m | ||
| Debt | A$ | 0.0m | ||
| Enterprise Value | A$ | 50.2m | ||
| EV/Resource (2C) | A$/GJ | 0.02 |
| Top Shareholders | # of Shares | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allied Resource Partners | 104.8m | 39.4 | ||
| CITIC Australia | 17.2m | 6.5 | ||
| RBC Investor Services | 6.7m | 2.5 | ||
| One Design Skiff & Sails | 5.2m | 1.9 | ||
| HSBC Custody | 4.6m | 1.7 | ||
| Top 20 | 176.1 m | 66.2 |
Leigh Creek (LCK) has 2,964 PJ of PRMS certified and is syngas aiming for commercial production from 2020.
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First demonstration is due syngas in 2017.
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ExperiencedTeam
| The Team | Experience |
|---|---|
| Justyn Peters Executive Chairman |
Senior exec with Linc Energy (LNC), the Australian pioneer in ISG, and previously held senior roles in the Queensland EPA. Major shareholder in Allied Resource Partners (ARP). |
| Phil Staveley CEO |
30 years working in oil and gas and mining in planning, commercial and finance roles for firms like Schlumberger, SAGASCO, SAOG, and Normandy. |
| Justin Haines COO |
Broad experience across engineering and geological services. Most recently, worked as Technical Manager for Carbon Energy, successfully operating their ISG facility. |
| Mark Terry CFO |
CPA with more than 20 years of experience in the mining industry, including KPMG, Normandy, Newmont, and Xstrata. |
| Andrew Harrington GM – Project Finance |
20 years across consulting, project finance, institutional banking, and stockbroking. Was a #1 rated equity analyst by Reuters. |
| Dave Munro Operations Manager |
Electrical trades qualified operations manager of process plants in coal, gas and industrial minerals. Recently completed 8 years managing site and support operations for Linc Energy. |
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LCK compares verycheaply
LCK is trading at an EV/Resource of only A$0.02/GJ.
EV/Resources (2C)
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A$ 1.19
1.20
1.10 A$ 1.04
1.00
0.90 Macquarie Bid
0.80 (Nov 13, 2016)
0.70
0.60
Average: A$0.52/GJ
0.50 A$ 0.45
0.40
0.30 A$ 0.26
0.20 A$ 0.15
0.10
A$0.02
0.00
Leigh Creek Energy Senex Energy Cooper Energy Strike Energy Central Petroleum Beach Energy
2C Resources 2,964 PJ 1,273 PJ 361 PJ 164 PJ 143 PJ 1,255 PJ
A$ / GJ
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- LCK Resource’ Under Avg Valuation: A$1,541m
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Conclusion: Right market, right time, right place
LCK is ideally placed close to major South Australian (SA) energy consumers, infrastructure, as well as the metropolitan demand in Adelaide , where LCK can provide a cost effective solution to an energy market in turmoil.
LCK will provide:
Key Points:
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Cheap Electricity
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Reliability of supply
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Supply to a natural gas market in shortage
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Spending ~A$20m to convert 2,964 PJ (3tcf) of 2C Syngas into a similar amount of 2P Syngas
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The South Australian government is very supportive of the unconventional gas industry
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Appendix 1 – Royalties and Taxes
| Item | Note |
|---|---|
| Federal Government Corporate Tax Rate |
30% - Levied on net profits. |
| South Australian State Oil and Gas Royalty |
10% - Wellhead value minus certain costs. Likely to equate to an effective rate of 7%. |
| TriE Royalty (to Founders) | Calculated at $0.15/GJ up to $6/GJ, $0.30/GJ up to $10/GJ, and 3% on gross revenue of methaneabove $10/GJ on a real basis as of 31-Dec-14. All other products have a royalty of 2%. |
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Appendix 2 - Commercial electricityproduction
The application of ISG is new, but the equipment for both gas handling and the power station is standard:
- Performance guarantees from turbine suppliers
: Relationships
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ElectraNet – transmission routes
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CQ Partners – power market studies
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APA – gas pipelineroutes
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Shanghai Electric Group – power station construction
Indicative Timeline :
- Approvals by early 2018, then 18 month constructiontime
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Syngas produced from ISG can be used to fuel a standard Open Cycle or Combined Cycle gas turbine. Feasibility is underway for a staged 100-500MW power station option.
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