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INVL Technology Investor Presentation 2024
2265_rns_2024-04-24_68069cf8-b0f7-4d61-b0eb-91807c45bf04.pdf
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INVL Technology
Technology
April 23, 2024
Enlight Research
Baltics - Lithuania
Commissioned Research - Q4 2023 Update
We are in EXIT phase
Revenue and profits grew strongly leading to an upward valuation adjustment of the portfolio companies by the external valuator. The NAV discount is at historical highs. The company entered the EXIT phase this year. An exit at the NAV could result in a lower NAV discount/higher share price.
Strong operational performance increase NAV
2023 Portfolio companies Sales increased 24% to EUR 58.7m (est. 56.5m) while the EBIT increased 107% to EUR 2.3m (est. 1.8m). The strong performance led to a 2023 NAV increase of 14% to EUR 3.61. The NAV discount of around 40% is at historical highs. This year, the company entered the exit phase. A successful exit around NAV could result in a significant reduction of the NAV discount (the historical average NAV discount is 23%).
External valuator increase Fair value
At the end of year 2023, the external valuator increased the Fair value of the holding companies by 28% to EUR 44.9m, which is considerably higher than our estimate of EUR 36.6m. This follows a 1% downward adjustment at the end of 2022 i.e., the valuator has a changed view.
Base Case share price raised
We raise our sum-of-the-parts Base case Fair value per share to EUR 3.79 (prev. 3.34). This implies a P/Sales 2024E multiple of 0.9x based on all portfolio companies' sales (peer avg. is 1.4x), which we regard as conservative for a technology company.
Key figures (MEUR)
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding company | |||||
| Fair value Financial assets* | 34.9 | 44.9 | 48.6 | 51.3 | 54.1 |
| Change Financial assets | -0.4 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Other income | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Total income | 0.5 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Operating expenses | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| Accrued perf. fee | 2.3 | -4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net profit | 2.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Portfolio companies | |||||
| Revenue (m) | 47.2 | 58.7 | 63.5 | 67.1 | 69.9 |
| EBIT (m) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Revenue growth | 25.7% | 24.3% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% |
| EBIT margin | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% |
| P/Sales | 0.52 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.35 |
Source: Company data, Enlight Research estimates, *External valuation (history), Enlight Research (estimate)
| Fair value range (EUR) | |
|---|---|
| Bull (P/Sales 1.2x) | 4.94 |
| Base (P/Sales 0.9x) | 3.79 |
| Bear (P/Sales 0.6x) | 2.64 |
| Key Data | |
| Price (EUR) | 2.04 |
| Ticker | INC1L |
| Country | Lithuania |
| Listed | Vilnius (Lithuania) |
| Market Cap (EURm) | 25 |
| Net debt (EURm) | 0 |
| Shares (m) | 12.2 |
| Free float | 36% |
| Price range | |
|---|---|
| 52-week high | 2.14 |
| 52-week low | 1.78 |
Analyst
Coverage frequency
2x per year
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
Key takeaways
Strong operational performance increase NAV
The Q4/23 Portfolio companies' sales increased $15.3\%$ y-on-y to EUR 19.2m (est. EUR 16.8m) leading to a full-year 2023 sales growth of $24.3\%$ to EUR 58.7m. The Q4/23 EBIT more than doubled from EUR 1.1m to EUR 2.3m. The strong operational performance resulted in an end of 2023 NAV of EUR 3.61 per share (est. 3.34) corresponding to an annual increase of $14\%$ . For 2024, we forecast a NAV increase of $8\%$ to EUR 46.8m (EUR 3.88/shr.) underpinned by an $8.3\%$ Sales growth to EUR 63.5m.
Sales & NAV 2022 and 2023 (EURm)
Source: Company reports
Source: Company reports (historical), Enlight Research (estimates)
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
NAV discount at historically high level
Despite a positive share price reaction to the Q4/23 results (+9% since report based on share price EUR 2.04), the NAV discount of 43% is at historical highs. The average NAV discount since 2017 has been 23%, which given the latest reported NAV of EUR 3.61/shr. implies a share price of EUR 2.77/shr. equal to an upside of around 36%.
INVL Technology share NAV discount
Source: Company reports, Today based on share price EUR 2.04
NAV discount
| Current share price (EUR) | 2.04 |
|---|---|
| Last reported NAV/shr. (EUR) | 3.61 |
| NAV discount | 43% |
| Avg. NAV discount since 2017 | 23% |
| Share price at avg. NAV discount (EUR) | 2.77 |
| Upside vs. avg. NAV discount since 2017 | 36% |
Source: Company reports (NAV), Enlight Research (Upside)
EXITS could reduce the NAV discount
INVL Technology's Article of Association stipulates that the company will operate for 10 years between 14 July 2016 to 14 July 2026, with a possible 2-year extension. The pre-defined end-date gives exit and mark-to-market assurance to investors which is important with regards to the possible NAV discount elimination. The company's lifespan can be divided into the following three phases: investment period (2016-2021), value creation period (2021-2024), exit period (2024-2026) with an optional extension till 2028. Hence, we have entered the "exit period" this year. A divestment of a portfolio company at or around NAV could help to reduce the NAV discount substantially, in our view.
Source: Company
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
External valuation raised
An external valuation of the holdings is done at the end of each calendar year. The external valuator increased the value of the holdings by $28\%$ to EUR 44.9m at the end of 2023 from EUR 34.9m by the end of 2022. This can be compared to the 2023 share price performance of negative $12\%$ . Worth noting is that the external valuation of EUR 44.9m implies a 2024E P/Sales multiple of 0.71x, which we believe is conservative for technology assets posting sales growth of around $25\%$ the last two years.
External valuation
| (EURm) | 2022 | 2023 | Diff | Diff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRD Companies | 7.3 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 51% |
| Novian | 17.6 | 19.7 | 2.1 | 12% |
| NRD CS UAB | 9.9 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 43% |
| FINtime UAB | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -23% |
| Total | 34.9 | 44.9 | 9.9 | 28% |
Source: Company reports
External valuation of holdings (EURm)
Source: Company reports
Holding companies Sales & Sales growth
Source: Company reports
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
Valuation
Market volatility result in peer contraction
Since our last update in October last year, the Infrastructure peers' P/Sales median expanded to $0.49\mathrm{x}$ (0.41x) while the Cybersecurity P/Sales median declined to 1.3x (2.1x). Meanwhile, the Software 2.2x (2.1x) and the Consulting 0.58x (0.60x) P/Sales peer medians were roughly unchanged.
P/Sales peer median multiple development since Initiation Q2/21 to Q4/23
Source: MarketScreener, Enlight Research, Introduce Research, DnB research, Share prices on 14 April 2024, P/Sales multiple based on current forecast year
Base case Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) Valuation
Our P/Sales 2024E Base case sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation per share is EUR 3.79 (prev. 3.34). Our valuation assumes NAV discount of $20\%$ which is in-line with the long-term average discount of $23\%$ , but lower than the current NAV discount around $43\%$ . Our sales weighted P/Sales multiple of $0.9x$ implies a discount of around $35\%$ to the weighted peer average P/Sales multiple of $1.4x$ .
Fair value Invalda Technology (Base case)
| Weighted P/Sales 2024 | (W)P/Sales discount | Sales 2022 | Sales 2023 | Sales 2024E | Enlight FV (EURm) | Enlight FV/share (EUR) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Peer avg. | |||||||
| Business area: Business climate improvement & e-governance | ||||||||
| NRD Companies | 1.2 | 1.9 | 35% | 8.1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 15.4 | 1.27 |
| Business area: IT services & software | ||||||||
| Novian Companies | 0.7 | 1.1 | 35% | 33.0 | 40.3 | 42.7 | 31.5 | 2.61 |
| Business area: Cybersecurity | ||||||||
| NRD CS | 1.2 | 1.8 | 34% | 6.1 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 0.81 |
| Business area: Business process outsourcing | ||||||||
| FiNtime | na | na | na | na | na | na | 0.121 | 0.01 |
| Group total | 0.9 | 1.4 | 35% | 47.2 | 58.7 | 63.5 | 56.8 | 4.71 |
| Sales growth | 26% | 24% | 8% | |||||
| Add Net cash: | 0.4 | 0.04 | ||||||
| Group total: | 57.2 | 4.74 | ||||||
| Less assumed NAV discount: | 20% | 20% | ||||||
| Less assumed NAV discount (EUR): | 11.4 | 0.95 | ||||||
| Enlight Base case Fair Value: | 45.8 | 3.79 |
Source: Historical figures (Company reports), Forecast figures (Enlight Research), Peer P/Sales average (MarketScreener, Enlight Research, Introduce). Based on peer valuation on 14 April 2024
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
Peer tables
IT Infrastructure services
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | Price (last) | Mcap (m) (last) | P/Sales 2022 | P/Sales 2023 | P/Sales 2024E | P/Sales 2025E | EBIT marg. 2022 | EBIT marg. 2023 | EBIT marg. 2024E | EBIT marg. 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin | DUST | SEK | 13.29 | 6,013 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| Proact IT | PACT | SEK | 105.60 | 2,881 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% |
| Atxa | ATEA | NOK | 134.80 | 15,026 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| Alxia Group | AlXIA B | SEK | 150.00 | 236 | 1.51 | 2.19 | 1.58 | 1.18 | 1.4% | -3.8% | 0.7% | 2.2% |
| Average | 0.71 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | ||||
| Median | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | ||||
| Cybersecurity | ||||||||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | Price (last) | Mcap (m) (last) | P/Sales 2022 | P/Sales 2023 | P/Sales 2024E | P/Sales 2025E | EBIT marg. 2022 | EBIT marg. 2023 | EBIT marg. 2024E | EBIT marg. 2025E |
| Clavister Holding | CLAV | SEK | 1.08 | 244 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -36.0% | -19.1% | -11.1% | 1.8% |
| Freja eID Group | FREJA | SEK | 6.88 | 156 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | -99.3% | -32.3% | -9.2% | 4.6% |
| Withsecure OYJ | FSC1V | EUR | 1.11 | 196 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -31.6% | -30.9% | -4.0% | -0.4% |
| Average | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -55.6% | -27.4% | -8.1% | 2.8% | ||||
| Median | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -36.0% | -30.9% | -9.2% | 3.2% | ||||
| Average excluding extremes | ||||||||||||
| Software | ||||||||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | Price (last) | Mcap (m) (last) | P/Sales 2022 | P/Sales 2023 | P/Sales 2024E | P/Sales 2025E | EBIT marg. 2022 | EBIT marg. 2023 | EBIT marg. 2024E | EBIT marg. 2025E |
| Agillic | AGILC | DKK | 12.7 | 140 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -17% | -18% | -8% | -3% |
| Artificial Solutions | ASAI | SEK | 0.591 | 161 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | -195% | -120% | -45% | -8% |
| Briox | BRIX | SEK | 2.92 | 167 | 19.4 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 7.6 | -263% | -206% | -120% | -74% |
| Efecto Oyj | EFECTE | EUR | 14.95 | 97 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | -2% | -5% | 3% | 8% |
| FormPipe Software | FPIP | SEK | 29.2 | 1,583 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3% | 10% | 13% | 17% |
| Fortnox | FNOX | SEK | 63.68 | 38,829 | 30.4 | 23.6 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 36% | 41% | 43% | 44% |
| LeadDesk Oyj | LEADD | EUR | 7.8 | 43 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -5% | -4% | -2% | 3% |
| Lime Technologies | LIME | SEK | 351.5 | 4,669 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 19% | 20% | 20% | 21% |
| Litium | LITI | SEK | 9.08 | 151 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | -19% | -5% | 0% | 3% |
| Sili Solutions Oyj | SILI | EUR | 9.3 | 75 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 9% | 6% | 6% | 7% |
| BuildData | BUILD | SEK | 3.4 | 213 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | -27% | -29% | -4% | 4% |
| Average | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | -42% | -28% | -8% | 2% | ||||
| Median | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -5.5% | -4.8% | 0.3% | 4.1% | ||||
| Average excluding extremes | ||||||||||||
| IT Consulting | ||||||||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | Price (last) | Mcap (m) (last) | P/Sales 2022 | P/Sales 2023 | P/Sales 2024E | P/Sales 2025E | EBIT marg. 2022 | EBIT marg. 2023 | EBIT marg. 2024E | EBIT marg. 2025E |
| B3 Consulting Group | B3 | SEK | 82.1 | 687 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 12.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% |
| CAG Group | CAG | SEK | 109 | 781 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Digia Oyj | DIGIA | EUR | 5.3 | 141 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% |
| Soltog Oyj | SOLTEQ | EUR | 0.766 | 15 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.25 | -6.4% | -6.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% |
| Time People Group | TPGR | SEK | 14.9 | 108 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 8.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% |
| Innofactor Plc | IFA1V | EUR | 1.295 | 46 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% |
| Average | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | ||||
| Median | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% |
Source: MarketScreener, Enlight Research, Introduce. Based on share prices on 14 April 2024
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
Q4 Estimates vs. Outcome
Portfolio companies estimates vs. outcome
The Q4/23 Group Sales of EUR 19.2m was 13.9% or EUR 2.3m above our EUR 16.8m estimate. The largest segment, Novian (~2/3 of sales) delivered 21% sales growth y-on-y, resulting in Q4/23 sales of EUR 13.8m, which was 27.8% or EUR 3.0m better than expected. The NRD Companies Q4/23 sales came in at EUR 2.6m or 29% below our estimate, which was partly offset by the Cybersecurity's segment, which posted EUR 2.8m sales or EUR 0.4m above our forecast. The Q4/23 Group EBIT of EUR 1.6m was EUR 0.9m above our EUR 0.7m forecast, as all segment came in better than expected. Worth noting, NRD Companies (sales came below estimate) demonstrated an excellent 23% EBIT margin, which meant that Q4/23 EBIT of EUR 0.6m was three times higher than estimated. Meanwhile, the Novian and the Cybersecurity segments delivered the Q4/23 EBIT of EUR 0.8m and EUR 0.4m, which was above our estimate by EUR 0.1m and EUR 0.3m, respectively.
| Sales by portfolio company (EURm) | Q4/23 Estimate | Q4/23 Outcome | EURm | Diff. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRD Companies | 3.7 | 2.6 | -1.1 | -29.2% |
| Novian | 10.8 | 13.8 | 3.0 | 27.8% |
| NRD CS | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 17.7% |
| Group sales | 16.8 | 19.2 | 2.3 | 13.9% |
| Sales growth | Q4/23 Estimate | Q4/23 Outcome | EURm | Diff. %-pts |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRD Companies | 7.1% | -14.9% | nm | -22.0 |
| Novian | -5.4% | 21.0% | nm | 26.4 |
| NRD CS | 8.9% | 28.2% | nm | 19.3 |
| Group sales growth | -1.0% | 15.3% | nm | 1637 |
| EBIT by portfolio company (EURm) | Q4/23 Estimate | Q4/23 Outcome | EURm | Diff. % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRD Companies | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 202.9% |
| Novian | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 9.0% |
| NRD CS | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 384.4% |
| Eliminations | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -56.3% |
| Group EBIT (after Eliminations) | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 130.7% |
| EBIT margin by Segment | Q4/23 Estimate | Q4/23 Outcome | EURm | Diff. %-pts |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NRD Companies | 5.4% | 23.0% | nm | 17.7 |
| Novian (incl. Elsis PRO) | 7.0% | 6.0% | nm | -1.0 |
| NRD CS | 3.1% | 12.7% | nm | 9.6 |
| Group EBIT margin | 4.2% | 8.6% | nm | 4.3 |
Source: Company reports, Enlight Research
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
Estimate changes
Portfolio companies Estimate changes
Our Total Sales estimate for all portfolio companies is raised by $9\%$ for 2024-25, mainly due to higher sales for Novian segment. Our 2024 and 2025 EBIT estimate is raised by EUR 1.0m to EUR 4.0m and EUR 4.5m respectively, on the back of higher than expected profitability across all segments in Q4/23.
| Sales all portfolio companies (EURm) | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old estimate | 56.3 | 60.8 | 64.4 | na |
| New estimate | 58.7 | 66.5 | 70.2 | 73.5 |
| Change | 2.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | na |
| Change (pct) | 4.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | na |
| EBIT all portfolio companies (EURm) | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Old estimate | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | na |
| New estimate | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Change | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | na |
| Change (pct) | 70.3% | 36.1% | 27.7% | na |
Source: Enlight Research
Holding company Estimate changes
We increase our Fair value (FV) of financial assets by around $22 - 25\%$ in the forecast period on the back of strong performance in 2023, which has been recognized also by external valuator. The change in FV of financial assets has significant impact on the Holding company's estimated Total income and EBIT as they are mainly made up of FV changes. Important to note is that the Holding company Income statement mainly consist of non-cash flow items e.g., the Change in FV of financial assets will not be converted to cash until exits are made, while the performance fee provisions will not become a cash outflow until it is paid out at the end of the company life (2026 or later).
Holding company Estimate changes
| Fair value financial assets | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old estimate | 36.5 | 39.5 | 42.8 | na |
| New estimate | 44.9 | 49.2 | 52.4 | 55.9 |
| Change | 8.4 | 9.7 | 9.5 | na |
| Change (pct) | 23.0% | 24.6% | 22.2% | na |
| Change FV financial assets | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Old estimate | 1.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | na |
| New estimate | 9.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Change | 8.4 | 1.3 | -0.2 | na |
| Change (pct) | 540.8% | 43.6% | -5.6% | na |
| Total income | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Old estimate | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | na |
| New estimate | 10.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Change | 9.0 | 1.3 | -0.2 | na |
| Change (pct) | 523.6% | 41.3% | -5.3% | na |
| EBIT | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Old estimate | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | na |
| New estimate | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Change | 4.1 | 1.4 | -0.1 | na |
| Change (pct) | 402.0% | 58.3% | -2.6% | na |
Source: Enlight Research
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
Risk factors
Below is a list of what we believe are some of the most important risks, however, this list should not be regarded as a complete list of risks. For examples of additional risks, we refer to the listing document and company reports.
Risk of change of technology
The technology sector is in constant change. Failure to adapt and learn a new technology could result in a drop in sale and earnings and hence lower the Fair value of the company.
The state of the M&A market
If the market for mergers and acquisitions is depressed during the exit phase (mainly 2026 with possible 2 years extension), the deal valuations could be lower than expected and it could be hard to sell portfolio companies.
Political risk
A significant share of clients are public institutions and hence the company has exposure to public sector contracts, which entails political risks.
Intellectual Property risk
A significant share of the company's assets consists of intellectual property in the form of proprietary software and technology know-how. Therefore, the risk that somebody will try and steal intellectual property is present.
Valuation risk
The fair value of the holding companies is done by an independent external valuation firm. However, there is no guarantee that the final exit price of company will be according to the external valuation, nor to our valuation.
NAV discount risk
Even though the NAV of INVL Technology increases, there is no guarantee that the share price will increase in-line with the NAV as the NAV discount could increase as well.
Liquidity risk
The trading activity (liquidity) on the Nasdaq Baltic Exchange is low relative to most Western European markets. Therefore, it may be hard to buy and sell INVL Technology shares without affecting the share price.
Russia – Ukraine risk
The company has no direct exposure to Russia or Ukraine. However, a general downturn in the economy due to the Russia – Ukraine war can affect the company's sales and profits.
Inflation risk
High inflation is likely to lead to an increase in INVL Technologies' operating expenses, which could affect the margins negatively if the company cannot pass on these costs to the clients.
Enlight Research
Page | 9
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
| Income Statement | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 0.5 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Total operating costs | 1.6 | -7.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| EBITDA | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| One-off EBIT items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 2.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Financial net | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Taxes | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net profit | 2.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Balance Sheet | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cash and cash equivalent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Receivables | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inventories | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other current assets | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total current assets | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goodwill & intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lease & Investment properties | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Long-term Investments | 35 | 45 | 49 | 51 | 54 |
| Associated companies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other long-term assets | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total fixed assets | 37 | 47 | 51 | 53 | 56 |
| Total Assets | 38 | 49 | 52 | 55 | 58 |
| Accounts payable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Short-term IB debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Other current liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total current liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Long-term IB debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Convertibles & Lease liab. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deferred tax liab. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Provisions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other long-term liab. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total long-term liab. | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Total Liabilities | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shareholders' equity | 38 | 44 | 47 | 49 | 51 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 38 | 49 | 52 | 55 | 58 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Operating profit | 2.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | 0.0 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Working capital chg. | -0.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other Operating CF items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Net investments | -0.3 | -8.3 | -3.7 | -2.6 | -2.8 |
| Other items | -2.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free Cash Flow | -1.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| Capital structure | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Equity ratio | 99.5% | 89.0% | 89.8% | 89.5% | 88.9% |
| Debt / Equity ratio | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| Gearing % | -1.9% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| Net debt/EBITDA | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Profitability | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ROE | 5.7% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| FCF yield | -5.4% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.6% |
| EBITDA margin | 411.5% | 33.3% | 83.7% | 75.8% | 73.4% |
| EBIT margin | 411.5% | 48.2% | 83.7% | 75.8% | 73.4% |
| PTP margin | 411.5% | 48.1% | 83.8% | 76.2% | 74.4% |
| Net margin | 411.5% | 48.1% | 83.8% | 76.2% | 74.4% |
| Valuation | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| P/E | 12.3 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| P/E adjusted | 12.3 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| P/Sales | 50.7 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 8.2 |
| EV/Sales | 49.3 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| P/BV | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| P/BV tangible | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Per share ratios | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EPS | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| EPS, adjusted | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| Operating CF/share | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Free Cash Flow/share | -0.12 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| BV/share | 3.17 | 3.61 | 3.88 | 4.05 | 4.24 |
| Tangible BV/share | 3.17 | 3.61 | 3.88 | 4.05 | 4.24 |
| Div. per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div. payout ratio | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shareholders | Capital | Votes | |||
| --- | --- | --- | |||
| UAB LIB Investments | 4.902 | 19.91 % | |||
| INVL Life | 3.789 | 15.39 % | |||
| Irena Ona Miseikiene | 2.965 | 12.04 % | |||
| AB Lietuvos draudimas | 1.839 | 7.47 % | |||
| Kazimieras Tonkunas | 1.367 | 5.55 % | |||
| Alvydas Banys | 1.251 | 5.08 % | |||
| Key people | |||||
| --- | --- | ||||
| CEO | Kazimieras Tonkunas | ||||
| CFO | |||||
| IB | |||||
| Chairman | Kazimieras Tonkunas |
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
| P/E Price per share Earnings per share | EPS Profit before extraordinary items and taxes – income taxes + minority interest Number of shares |
|---|---|
| P/Sales Market cap Sales | DPS Dividend for financial period per share |
| P/BV Price per share Shareholders' equity + taxed provisions per share | CEPS Gross cash flow from operations Number of shares |
| P/CF Price per share Operating cash flow per share | EV/Share Enterprise value Number of shares |
| EV (Enterprise value) Market cap + Net debt + Minority interest at market value – share of associated companies at market value | Sales/Share Sales Number of shares |
| Net debt Interest-bearing debt – financial assets | EBITDA/Share Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization Number of shares |
| EV/Sales Enterprise value Sales | EBIT/Share Operating profit Number of shares |
| EV/EBITDA Enterprise value Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization | EAFI/Share Pre-tax profit Number of shares |
| EV/EBIT Enterprise value Operating profit | Capital employed/Share Total assets – non-interest-bearing debt Number of shares |
| Div yield, % Dividend per share Price per share | Total assets Balance sheet total |
| Payout ratio, % Total dividends Earnings before extraordinary items and taxes – income taxes + minority interest | Interest coverage (x) Operating profit Financial items |
| Net cash/Share Financial assets – interest-bearing debt Number of shares | Asset turnover (x) Turnover Balance sheet total (average) |
| ROA, % Operating profit + financial income + extraordinary items Balance sheet total – interest-free short-term debt – long-term advances received and accounts payable (average) | Debt/Equity, % Interest-bearing debt Shareholders' equity + minority interest + taxed provisions |
| ROCE, % Profit before extraordinary items + interest expenses + other financial costs Balance sheet total – non-interest-bearing debt (average) | Equity ratio, % Shareholders' equity + minority interest + taxed provisions Total assets – interest-free loans |
| ROE, % Profit before extraordinary items – income taxes Shareholders' equity + minority interest + taxed provisions (average) | CAGR, % Cumulative annual growth rate = Average growth rate per year |
Enlight Research
April 23, 2024
INVL Technology
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INVL Technology
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