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Frontline Plc Investor Presentation 2025

Feb 28, 2025

6242_rns_2025-02-28_f36661d1-a877-41a8-82a3-30104daf8fc4.pdf

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Fourth Quarter Presentation February 2025

MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.

FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.

THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.

IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.

Reported earnings basis load to discharge

Q4 2024 TCE currently
contracted
% done
VLCC \$35,900 \$43,700 80%
Suezmax \$33,300 \$35,400 77%
\$26,100 \$29,700 64%
LR2 / Aframax

  • Profit of \$66.7 million, or \$0.30 per basic and diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2024
  • Adjusted profit of \$45.1 million, or \$0.20 per basic and diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2024

Q1 2025 spot

• Reported revenues of \$425.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2024

  • Declared a cash dividend of \$0.20 per share for the fourth quarter of 2024
  • Fully drew down a sale-and-leaseback agreement in an amount of \$512.1 million to refinance 10 Suezmax tankers, which generated net cash proceeds of \$101.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2024

  • Sold its oldest Suezmax tanker, built in 2010, for a net sales price of \$48.5 million and delivered the vessel to its new owner in October 2024. The transaction generated net cash proceeds of \$36.5 million after repayment of existing debt and a gain of \$17.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024
  • Repaid the remaining \$75.0 million outstanding under the \$275.0 million senior unsecured revolving credit facility with an affiliate of Hemen Holding Limited, the Company's largest shareholder ("Hemen") in the fourth quarter of 2024
  • Entered into three senior secured credit facilities for a total amount of up to \$239.0 million to refinance outstanding debt on three VLCCs and one Suezmax tanker and, in addition, to provide revolving credit capacity in a total amount of up to \$91.9 million

Profit Statement – Highlights

2024 2024 2023
\$
(in
thousands
of
except
per share
data)
Oct
- Dec
Jul
- Sep
Jan
- Dec
(net
of
expenses)*
Total
operating
revenues
voyage
252
178
295
333
1
183
589
Other
income
17
847
45 24
080
Ship
operating
expenses
(55
452)
(59
446)
(176
533)
Administrative
expenses
(1
709)
(6
965)
(53
528)
EBITDA 213
390
226
794
1
040
832
adj*
EBITDA
187
032
228
967
955
251
Interest
adj*
expense
(62
172)
(69
368)
(155
585)
Profit 66
733
60
457
656
414
Profit
adj*
45
068
75
436
585
708
Basic
and
diluted
earnings
share
per
0
30
,
0
27
,
2
95
,
Basic
and
diluted
earnings
share
adjusted
per
0
20
,
0
34
,
2
63
,
Dividend
share
per
0
20
,
0
34
,
2
17
,

Notes

  • The adjustments in the fourth quarter of 2024 consist of:
    • \$17.9 million gain on sale of vessel
    • \$8.0 million synthetic option revaluation gain
    • \$5.4 million of debt extinguishment losses
    • \$1.7 million of dividends received
    • \$1.4 million loss on marketable securities
    • \$0.7 million unrealized gain on derivatives
    • \$0.3 million share of results of associated companies

Note: Diluted earnings per share is based on 222,623 and 222,623 weighted average shares (in thousands) outstanding for Q4 2024 and Q3 2024, respectively *See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP figures

4

Balance Sheet - Highlights

2024 2024 2023
\$)
(in
millions
Dec
31
Sep
30
Dec
31
Assets
Cash 414 321 308
Other
current
assets
412 461 420
Non-current
assets
Vessels
and
newbuildings
5
248
5
356
4
635
Goodwill 112 112 112
Prepaid
consideration
- - 349
Other
non-current
assets
34 33 58
Total
assets
6
221
6
284
5
883
Liabilities
and
Equity
Short
of
term
debt
and
current
portion
long
term
debt
460 402 262
Obligations
under
leases
1 1 1
Other
current
payables
134 144 146
Non-current
liabilities
Long
debt
term
3
284
3
387
3
194
Obligations
under
leases
0 1 1
Other
payables
non-current
0 0 0
Non-controlling
interest
(0) (0) (0)
Frontline
plc
stockholders'
equity
2
341
2
348
2
278
Total
liabilities
and
equity
6
221
6
284
5
883
  • Strong liquidity of \$693 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount of senior unsecured revolving credit facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements bank as per 31.12.24.
  • In the first quarter of 2025 we have further strengthened our strong liquidity with revolver capacity of up to 91.9 million
  • No meaningful debt maturities until 2028
  • No newbuilding commitments

Fleet Composition and Cash breakeven / Opex

One of the youngest and most energy-efficient fleets in the industry

Cash breakeven rates and Opex

Cash breakeven rates of \$26.200 fleet average for 2025, including dry dock costs for two VLCCs and one Suezmax tanker Q4-24 fleet average opex excl. drydock \$7.400

Cash Generation

Based on current spot market +10% +20% 30% increase from current spot market will increase the potential cash generation with ~80% \$447m \$565m \$683m \$801m \$2,01 \$2,54 \$3,07 \$3,60 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 VLCC 48.9k SMAX 37.2k LR2 28.7k VLCC 53.8k SMAX 40.9k LR2 31.5k VLCC 58.7k SMAX 44.7k LR2 34.4k VLCC 63.5k SMAX 48.4k LR2 37.3k FCF per share (\$) Free Cash Flow (\$m)

~30,000 earnings days annually

Daily Overview - Average Earnings
Crude Tankers 2011 built Last Prev Scrubber
premium
VLCC \$41,300 \$40,800 \$1,400
Suezmax \$33,700 \$34,700 \$800
Aframax \$25,700 \$25,900 5500
Crude Tankers 2015 built
VLCC Eco \$48,500 \$47,900 \$600
Suezmax Eco \$36,900 \$37,900 \$700
Aframax Eco \$28,700 \$28,800 \$400
Product Tankers 2011 built
LR2 \$25,000 \$23,300 \$1,100
LR1 \$19,500 \$20,700 \$1,100
MR \$18,200 \$18,900 S400
Product Tankers 2015 built
LR2 Eco \$28,500 \$26,700 \$700
LR1 Eco \$22,300 \$23,400 \$700
MR Eco \$21.700 \$22.400 \$200

+30%

The 'Normal' Market

  • Global oil consumption averaged 103.4 mbd in Q4, up 1 mbd y-o-y. Expected to reach 104.5 mbd by year end.
  • Supply up 600 kbd, OPEC+ maintained production cuts in Dec-24. Inventory builds expected in 2025, and supply to reach ~105.5 mbd in Q4-25.
  • Global oil exports down ~700 kbd compared to Q4-23, Dec alone down 1.5 mbd
  • New ordering muted in Q4-24, delivery window firmly into 2028.
  • Average fleet age for tankers at 13.7 years, highest since 2001. 46% of the asset classes we relate to is over 15y, 20% above 20y. Orderbook stands at 15% of existing fleet.
  • Seeing beyond the noisy tariff and sanctions narrative, we don't expect demand to be materially affected, but trades may become more inefficient.

BCTI TC1-TCE 75,000t Middle East Gulf to Japan

Source: Clarksons, EIA, Fearnleys

Sanctions & Tariff

  • Tariff on Mexico, Canada, China and EU
    • Depending on outcomes, material energy exposure in the mix. US import ~4 mbd of crude from Canada, whilst China Import modest oil volumes from US (~200 kbd). Mexico export ~800kbd, half to US. US export 600kbd of refined products to Mexico.
  • US Trade Representative (USTR) \$1.5m fee on Chinese built tonnage
    • 22% of global tanker fleet built in China, Frontline exposed on Suez and LR2/Afra, but all VLCC either Korea or Japan built, no vessels on order in China.
  • Maximum pressure in Iran 2.0 or 'solution'
    • Removal of oil from market access means replacement of 1-1.5 mbd from compliant sources on compliant vessels. Will also incur floating storage needs. Removal of sanctions means increased demand for compliant tonnage.
  • Russian Sanctions increase or removal
    • Increased sanction pressure makes the trade efficiency more complicated, tying up more tonnage. Removal of sanctions one should bear in mind ~50% of Russian trading fleet is above 20y, and oil sanctions easier to effectuate than vessel sanctions. OFAC/EU alignment?
  • Venezuela exemptions
    • US new position on Venezuela poised to put pressure on production expansions and exports, which has grown from ~550 kbd to 800 kbd y-o-y.
  • Shandong Port Authority + India OFAC compliance
    • Game changer as effectively 'self sanctioning'. For China; potentially to 'even the playground' between state- and privately-owned refiners (teapots).
  • Red Sea, Israel and Hamas
    • Risk continues, ebb and flow with the development in Gaza.

250 Unique Vessels loading Russian (excl CPC) or Iranian Crude 2024

Shifting Trade Flows 2022 - 2024

Orderbooks

FRONTLINE
Feb 2025 Fleet 15 + % above 15 20 + % above 20 OFAC Orderbook % of Fleet
VLCC 884 355 40.2 % 160 18.1 % 99 87 9.8 %
Suezmax 614 272 44.3 % 130 21.2 % 58 97 15.8 %
LR2 454 158 34.8 % 42 9.3 % 26 176 38.8 %
Aframax 679 420 61.9 % 208 30.6 % 115 34 5.0 %
Total Fleet 2 631 1 205 45.8 % 540 20.5 % 298 394 15.0 %

Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+

Sum Scrapped20Y+

Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+

Vessels above 15 and 20 years as of end of 2025

Delivered Sum on order 20Y+ Scrapped Delivered Sum on order 20Y+ Scrapped Delivered Sum on order 20Y+ Scrapped

Source: Fearnleys, OFAC

Summary

Pending bull market ?

  • Oil supply & demand remains stable, trade patterns being challenged.
  • Demand for compliant tonnage growing as sanctions scope and enforcement widens.
  • Effective tanker fleet growth will remain muted for 2025, considering the aging fleet.
  • Policy changes creates more questions than answers, outcomes difficult to analyse.
  • World oil trade is now serviced by the oldest fleet in more than two decades.
  • Frontline retains its material upside with our modern, spot exposed fleet.

Questions & Answers

www.frontlineplc.cy

Appendix 1

Non-GAAP measures reconciliation

(in thousands of \$ except per share) FY 2024 Q4 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 FY 2023
Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission
Revenues 2,050,385 425,644 490,318 556,026 578,397 1,802,184
Voyage expenses and commission (773,434) (173,466) (194,985) (197,795) (207,188) (618,595)
Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission 1,276,951 252,178 295,333 358,231 371,209 1,183,589
Adjusted profit
Profit 495,583 66,733 60,457 187,574 180,819 656,414
Add back:
Loss on marketable securities 5,493 1,403 2,817 1,273 23,968
Share of losses of associated companies 2,134 2,134 1,690
Unrealized loss on derivatives (1) 16,191 12,806 3,385 20,950
Debt extinguishment losses 6,307 5,371 936
Less:
Unrealized gain on derivatives (1) (1,493) (678) (815) (6,075)
Gain on marketable securities (2,088) (2,088) (46,957)
Share of results of associated companies (1,535) (279) (42) (1,214) (5,073)
Gain on sale of vessels (112,079) (17,850) (51,487) (42,742) (21,960)
Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims (397)
Debt extinguishment gains (354) (354)
Synthetic option revaluation gain (2) (7,982) (7,982)
Dividends received (3,535) (1,650) (602) (975) (308) (36,852)
Adjusted profit 396,642 45,068 75,436 138,189 137,949 585,708
Weighted average number of ordinary shares (basic and diluted) 222,623 222,623 222,623 222,623 222,623 222,623
Adjusted basic and diluted earnings per share \$
1.78
\$
0.20
\$
0.34
\$
0.62
\$
0.62
\$
2.63
EBITDA
Profit 495,583 66,733 60,457 187,574 180,819 656,414
Add back:
Finance expense 295,088 67,893 82,439 73,380 71,376 171,336
Income tax expense 7,885 4,796 1,541 1,548 391
Depreciation 339,030 83,148 84,156 83,714 88,012 230,942
Less:
Finance income (17,098) (4,170) (5,054) (5,647) (2,227) (18,065)
Income tax benefit (214) (214) (186)
EBITDA 1,120,274 213,390 226,794 340,562 339,528 1,040,832
Adjusted EBITDA
EBITDA 1,120,274 213,390 226,794 340,562 339,528 1,040,832
Add back:
Loss on marketable securities 5,493 1,403 2,817 1,273 23,968
Share of losses of associated companies 2,134 2,134 1,690
Less:
Gain on marketable securities (2,088) (2,088) (46,957)
Share of results of associated companies (1,535) (279) (42) (1,214) (5,073)
Gain on sale of vessels (112,079) (17,850) (51,487) (42,742) (21,960)
Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims (397)
Synthetic option revaluation gain (2) (7,982) (7,982)
Dividend received (3,535) (1,650) (602) (975) (308) (36,852)
Adjusted EBITDA 1,000,682 187,032 228,967 288,146 296,537 955,251

This presentation describes: Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission ("Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses)", Adjusted profit (loss) ("Profit (loss) adj") and related per share amounts, Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation ("Adjusted EBITDA" or "EBITDA adj") and Adjusted Interest Expense ("Interest expense adj") (3), which are not measures prepared in accordance with IFRS ("non-GAAP").

We believe the non-GAAP financial measures provide investors with a means of analyzing and understanding the Company's ongoing operating performance.

The non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS.

Due to rounding, numbers presented throughout this document may not add up precisely to the totals provided.

(1) Adjusted profit excludes the unrealized gain/loss on derivatives to give effect to the economic benefit/cost provided by our interest rate swap agreements. The components of the gain (loss) on derivatives are as follows:

(in thousands \$) FY 2024 Q4 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 FY 2023
Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives (14,698) 678 (12,806) (3,385) 815 (14,875)
Interest income on derivatives 23,904 5,219 6,267 6,254 6,164 22,914
Gain (loss) on derivatives 9,206 5,897 (6,539) 2,869 6,979 8,039

(2) The vesting period for the synthetic options granted to employees and board members ended during the fourth quarter of 2024. As there are no ongoing service requirements, adjusted profit for the fourth quarter of 2024 excludes the gain due to the revaluation of the synthetic option liability in the period. Adjusted profit will exclude any gains/losses due to the revaluation of the liability for the remaining exercisable options until the expiration of the options in the fourth quarter of 2026.

(3) A reconciliation of finance expense to adjusted interest expense is as follows:

Finance expense 295,088 67,893 82,439 73,380 71,376 171,336
Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives (14,698) 678 (12,806) (3,385) 815 (14,875)
Debt extinguishment gains (losses) (5,953) (5,371) 354 (936)
Other financial expenses (1,960) (1,028) (265) (54) (613) (876)
Adjusted interest expense 272,477 62,172 69,368 70,295 70,642 155,585