AI assistant
Frontline Plc — Investor Presentation 2023
Feb 28, 2023
6242_rns_2023-02-28_e94c1c09-9ef0-42b4-baa3-bf97a347ab26.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Fourth Quarter Presentation Feb 2022
MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.
FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.
Reported earnings basis load to discharge
| VLCC | \$63,200 | \$58,300 | 87% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suezmax | \$57,900 | \$72,400 | 77% |
| LR2 / Aframax | \$58,800 | \$63,900 | 68% |
Q4 2022 Q1 2023 est. % done
- Highest quarterly net income since the second quarter of 2008 of \$240.0 million, or \$1.08 per basic and diluted share
-
Adjusted net income of \$215.5 million, or \$0.97 per basic and diluted share
-
Declared a cash dividend of \$0.30 per share for the third quarter of 2022 and a cash dividend of \$0.77 per share for the fourth quarter of 2022
-
Repaid \$60.0 million of its \$275.0 million senior unsecured revolving credit facility in February 2023
-
Took delivery of the three remaining VLCC newbuildings from HHI
-
Sold one 2009-built VLCC and one 2009-built Suezmax tanker, for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately \$100.5 million. After repayment of existing debt on the vessels, the transactions are expected to generate net cash proceeds of approximately \$63.8 million
-
Terminated the Combination Agreement with Euronav on January 9, 2023 and received from Euronav an emergency arbitration request for urgent interim and conservatory measures on January 17, 2023, which was fully dismissed by the Emergency Arbitrator on February 7, 2023
- Received from Euronav an arbitration request for proceedings on the merits of the termination on January 28, 2023
Large, diverse fleet of modern tankers
One of the youngest and most energy efficient fleets in the industry
Non-eco Non-eco w/scrubber Eco Eco w/scrubber
The average TCE (\$/day) for VLCCs, Suezmax and LR2s in Q4-2022, demonstrates the advantage of running a fleet with Eco and scrubber
Income Statement – Highlights
| 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in thousands of \$ except per share data) | Oct - Dec | Jul - Sep | Jan - Dec | Jan - Dec |
| Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses) | 352 846 | 208 843 | 824 664 | 356 684 |
| Other operating gain | 451 | 1 944 | 9 477 | 5 893 |
| Contingent rental (income) expense | - | - | (623) | (3 606) |
| Ship operating expenses | 49 482 | 48 696 | 193 014 | 175 607 |
| Charter hire expenses | - | - | - | 2 695 |
| Administrative expenses | 18 393 | 13 667 | 48 300 | 27 891 |
| EBITDA | 315 127 | 219 339 | 719 686 | 197 677 |
| EBITDA adj (*) | 286 891 | 147 866 | 583 839 | 154 187 |
| Interest expense adj (*) | (32 160) | (25 474) | (95 081) | (67 188) |
| Net income | 240 034 | 154 439 | 472 718 | (11 148) |
| Net income adj (*) | 215 495 | 82 858 | 337 696 | (55 077) |
| Diluted earnings per share | 1,08 | 0,69 | 2,21 | (0,06) |
| Diluted earnings per share adjusted | 0,97 | 0,37 | 1,58 | (0,28) |
| Dividend per share | 0,77 | 0,30 | 1,22 | - |
Highest quarterly net income since the second quarter of 2008!
Adjustment items for Q4 2022:
- \$1.1 million unrealized loss on derivatives
- \$2.6 million share of results of associated companies
- \$23 million gain on marketable securities
Note: Diluted earnings per share is based on 222,623 and 222,623 weighted average shares (in thousands) outstanding for Q4 2022 and Q3 2022, respectively
*See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP figures
Balance Sheet - Highlights
| 2022 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions \$) | Dec 31 | Sep 30 | Dec 31 |
| Assets | |||
| Cash | 255 | 127 | 113 |
| Other current assets | 627 | 566 | 220 |
| Non-current assets | |||
| Vessels and newbuildings | 3 709 | 3 670 | 3 657 |
| Goodwill | 112 | 112 | 112 |
| Other long-term assets | 73 | 73 | 15 |
| Total assets | 4 776 | 4 549 | 4 117 |
| Liabilities and Equity | |||
| Short term debt and current portion of long term debt | 258 | 257 | 189 |
| Obligations under finance and operational lease | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Other current liabilities | 132 | 167 | 95 |
| Non-current liabilities | |||
| Long term debt | 2 112 | 2 092 | 2 127 |
| Obligations under finance and operating lease | 2 | 3 | 44 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Noncontrolling interest | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Frontline Ltd. stockholders' equity | 2 268 | 2 028 | 1 653 |
| Total liabilities and stockholders' equity | 4 776 | 4 549 | 4 117 |
Notes
• \$556 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount of unsecured facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements bank as per 31.12.22
Frontline – the Cash Machine
Our industry leading cash break even rates are \$22.300 on average, including dry dock costs for 2023
Huge cash generation potential – Free Cash Flow indicates strong potential return
Note: Daily cash breakeven in USD based on estimate for 2023.
Free cash flow based on current fleet. (*) TCE rates based on Clarkson Research for the period 2000-2022 and (**) hypothetical TCE rates basis recent market, adjusted for same relative performance as historical average (2018-2022) between the three segments. Both (*) and (**) adjusted for Eco / Scrubber (2022 data). Source: Clarkson Research
Q4-22 Tanker Market
Sneak peek of what's to come?
- All segments Frontline operates performed during the quarter
- Average weighted market earnings for tankers, flirting with '04 highs
-
Chinese imports above pre-covid levels (~10mbd)
-
VLCC shipments to China at all-time-high, the big ships are back
- G7 Crude oil price cap effect muted as crude flows already re-directed
- Mild winter in the Northern hemisphere muted demand in the quarter
Chinese Imports
Three major themes – as we embark on an upcycle
Oil Demand, Fleet supply, Distances
- Global oil consumption expected to grow by more than 4mbd
- Asia, and China the expected driver, returning from Covid lock-downs
-
Total tanker fleet growth to turn negative in 2024, last seen in '02
-
Change in trade dynamics may accelerate this, ~12% of fleet above 20Y
- World seaborne trade to grow 6-7% annually next two years
- Overall orderbook stands below 5%, delivery window now focused on 2026
Orderbooks
Lowest contracting activity in decades
Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+
On order Sum on order 20Y+
Key Exporting Regions
Global production and exports are catching up
- World crude oil exports are back to pre-covid levels
- ~42 Million bbl/day of oceangoing volumes
-
West Africa continue to struggle but saw modest improvement in Q4
-
Latin America performs, Brazil and recently Guyana key for growth
- Russian exports surprisingly resilient, exports back to pre-invasion levels
- US exports continue to be firm, despite SPR release tailing off
feb.23
feb.23
Summary
- Highest quarterly net income since 2008 \$240.0 million Cash dividend of \$1.07 for Q3 and Q4 2022
- Took delivery of the three remaining VLCC newbuildings from HHI, sold one VLCC and one Suezmax tanker, both 2009 builds
- China took centerstage in the fourth quarter, imports back to pre covid levels
- Oil demand continue to recover, limited fleet supply and increasing ton-mile demand key drivers for the years to come
- Frontline's efficient and transparent business model generating shareholder returns !
Questions & Answers
www.frontline.bm
Appendix 1
Non-GAAP measures reconciliation
| (Million \$ except per share) Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and |
Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q1 2022 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| commission Total operating revenues Voyage expenses and commission |
530 (177) |
382 (173) |
300 (141) |
217 (114) |
1,430 (606) |
749 (393) |
| Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission |
353 | 209 | 159 | 104 | 825 | 357 |
| Adjusted net income (loss) | ||||||
| Net income (loss) Add back: |
240 | 154 | 47 | 31 | 473 | (11) |
| Loss on marketable securities | — | — | 12 | — | 12 | — |
| Share of losses of associated companies | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
| Unrealized loss on derivatives (1) | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 3 |
| Tax expense on dividend received Loss on termination of leases |
— — |
— — |
— — |
— — |
— — |
4 — |
| Less: Share of results of associated companies |
(3) | (6) | (6) | — | (14) | — |
| Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims | — | (3) | (1) | — | (4) | — |
| Gain on marketable securities | (23) | (47) | — | — | (70) | (4) |
| Gain on sale of vessels | — | — | — | (6) | (6) | (5) |
| Dividends received | — | — | — | — | — | (18) |
| Unrealized gain on derivatives (1) Amortization of acquired time charters |
— — |
(16) — |
(9) (1) |
(26) (1) |
(51) (3) |
(27) (5) |
| Adjusted net income (loss) | 215 | 83 | 42 | (3) | 338 | (61) |
| (in thousands) | ||||||
| Weighted average number of ordinary shares (basic and diluted) (in \$) |
222,623 | 222,623 | 206,965 | 203,531 | 214,011 | 198,965 |
| Adjusted basic and diluted earnings (loss) per share | 0.97 | 0.37 | 0.20 | (0.01) | 1.58 | (0.31) |
| EBITDA | ||||||
| Net income (loss) | 240 | 154 | 47 | 31 | 473 | (11) |
| Add back: | ||||||
| Interest expense | 36 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 99 | 61 |
| Depreciation | 39 | 38 | 36 | 37 | 151 | 148 |
| Income tax benefit (expense) Less: |
— | — | — | — | — | 5 |
| Amortization of acquired time charters | — | — | (1) | (1) | (3) | (5) |
| EBITDA | 315 | 219 | 101 | 84 | 720 | 198 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ||||||
| EBITDA | 315 | 219 | 101 | 84 | 720 | 198 |
| Add back: | ||||||
| Net income attributable to the non-controlling interest | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loss on marketable securities | — | — | 12 | — | 12 | — |
| Share of losses of associated company | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
| Loss on derivatives Loss on termination of leases |
— — |
— — |
— — |
— — |
— — |
5 — |
| Less: Share of results of associated company |
(3) | (6) | (6) | — | (14) | — |
| Gain on settlement of claim | — | (3) | (1) | — | (4) | — |
| Gain on marketable securities | (23) | (47) | — | — | (70) | (4) |
| Gain on sale of vessels | — | — | — | (6) | (6) | (5) |
| Dividend received | — | — | — | — | — | (18) |
| Gain on derivatives Adjusted EBITDA |
(3) 287 |
(17) 146 |
(9) 98 |
(25) 52 |
(54) 584 |
(22) 155 |
| Adjusted Interest expense | ||||||
| Interest expense | 36 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 99 | 61 |
| Interest income (expense) on derivatives | 4 | 1 | — | (1) | 4 | (6) |
| Adjusted Interest expense | 32 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 95 | 67 |
This presentation describes: Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission ("Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses)", Adjusted net income (loss) ("Net income adj") and related per share amounts, Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation ("Adjusted EBITDA" or "EBITDA adj") and Adjusted Interest Expense ("Interest expense adj"), which are not measures prepared in accordance with US GAAP ("non-GAAP").
We believe the non-GAAP financial measures provide investors with a means of analyzing and understanding the Company's ongoing operating performance.
The non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Due to rounding, numbers presented throughout this document may not add up precisely to the totals provided.
(1) Adjusted net income (loss) has been revised to only exclude the unrealized gain on derivatives to give effect to the economic benefit/cost provided by our interest rate swap agreements. A reconciliation of the gain on derivatives is as follows:
| (Million \$) | YTD 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q1 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives | 50 | (1) | 16 | 9 | 26 | 23 |
| Interest income (expense) on derivatives | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | (1) | (6) |
| Gain on derivatives | 54 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 25 | 18 |