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Frontline Plc — Investor Presentation 2023
Aug 24, 2023
6242_rns_2023-08-24_af9e081a-0725-435b-b527-9fdb40d9095f.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Second Quarter Presentation Aug 2023
MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.
FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.
Frontline's lean and efficient platform continued to yield shareholder returns
| Reported earnings basis load to discharge | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | ------------------------------------------- | -- |
| Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 est. | % done | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | \$64,000 | \$53,200 | 74% |
| Suezmax | \$61,700 | \$48,800 | 67% |
| LR2 / Aframax | \$52,900 | \$40,500 | 57% |
• Highest second quarter profit since 2008 of \$230.7 million, or \$1.04 per basic and diluted share
• Declared a cash dividend of \$0.80 per share for the second quarter of 2023
• Adjusted profit of \$210.0 million, or \$0.94 per basic and diluted share
• Revenues of \$512.8 million
Profit Statement – Highlights
| FRONTLINE |
|---|
| 2023 | 2023 | 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in thousands of \$ except per share data) | Apr - Jun | Jan - Mar | Jan - Dec | |
| Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses)* | 356 153 | 338 505 | 824 664 | |
| Other income | 9 391 | 14 289 | 8 040 | |
| Ship operating expenses | (43 772) | (43 718) | (175 164) | |
| Administrative expenses | (11 701) | (12 638) | (47 374) | |
| EBITDA | 315 466 | 297 530 | 682 164 | |
| EBITDA adj* | 300 820 | 283 859 | 601 377 | |
| Interest expense adj* | (38 102) | (37 984) | (95 081) | |
| Profit | 230 674 | 199 626 | 475 537 | |
| Profit adj* | 209 953 | 193 319 | 341 952 | |
| Basic and diluted earnings per share | 1,04 | 0,90 | 2,22 | |
| Basic and diluted earnings per share adjusted | 0,94 | 0,87 | 1,60 | |
| Dividend per share | 0,80 | 0,70 | 1,22 | |
Highest second quarter profit since 2008!
- Following the transition to IFRS drydocking costs will be capitalized and subsequently depreciated over the period to the next scheduled drydocking (2.5 -5 years)
- Q2-23 drydocking costs of \$1 million have been capitalized. One vessel was drydocked in the quarter
- The Company revised the estimated useful life of its vessels from 25 years to 20 years effective January 1, 2023
Note: Diluted earnings per share is based on 222,623 and 222,623 weighted average shares (in thousands) outstanding for Q2 2023 and Q1 2023, respectively *See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP figures
4
Balance Sheet - Highlights
| 2023 | 2023 | 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions \$) |
Jun 30 |
Mar 31 |
Dec 31 |
|
| Assets | ||||
| Cash | 307 | 225 | 255 | |
| Other current assets |
591 | 608 | 627 | |
| Non-current assets |
||||
| Vessels and newbuildings |
3 625 |
3 712 |
3 709 |
|
| Goodwill | 112 | 112 | 112 | |
| Other non-current assets |
67 | 61 | 73 | |
| Total assets |
4 702 |
4 719 |
4 776 |
|
| Liabilities and Equity |
||||
| Short debt and portion of long debt term current term |
363 | 365 | 258 | |
| Obligations under leases |
1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Other payables current |
104 | 109 | 132 | |
| Non-current liabilities |
||||
| Long term debt |
1 933 |
2 017 |
2 112 |
|
| Obligations under leases |
2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Other non-current payables |
3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Non-controlling interest |
(0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Frontline plc stockholders' equity |
2 297 |
2 222 |
2 268 |
|
| Total liabilities and equity |
4 702 |
4 719 |
4 776 |
|
- No remaining newbuilding commitments as the Company took delivery of the two last VLCC newbuildings, Front Orkla and Front Tyne, in Q1 2023
- Strong liquidity of \$719 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount of unsecured facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements bank as per 30.06.23
- Healthy leverage ratio of 51%
Frontline – the Cash Machine
Industry leading cash break even rates of \$22.700 fleet average, including dry dock costs for eight SMAX tankers in 2023
Q2-23 fleet average opex excl. drydock \$7.300
Huge cash generation potential – Free Cash Flow indicates strong potential return
Note: Daily cash breakeven in USD based on estimate for remainder of 2023. Free cash flow based on current fleet. (*) Based on closing price on 23rd Aug, 2023. (**) TCE rates based on Clarkson Research for the period 2000-Q2 2023 and (***) hypothetical TCE rates, adjusted for same relative performance as historical average (2018-Q2 2023) between the three segments. Both (**) and (***) adjusted for Eco / Scrubber (Jul 22-Jun 23 data). Source: Clarkson Research
Q2-23 Tanker Market
Volatile 'summer market'
- Asia Pacific continue to 'pull' volume
- Increased supply from 'New' exporters
-
OPEC cuts lend support to VLCC ton-miles
-
Russian Price Cap starting to bite
- Refinery margins improving as we move out of maintenance season
- 2H-2023 Oil demand expected to grow by ~2mbd
Incremental Crude Export Growth
aug.23
Russian Price Cap
Russian exports down as sanctions bite
- G7-Crude Oil Price cap of \$60 come in to play
- Increasingly complex to freight Russian oil
-
Vessels returning to the Non-Russian fleet
-
Product exports less affected as below cap
- Russian fleet struggle to maintain volumes
- What will be the endgame as ~1.7mbd 'lost' since Apr-23
Russian Exports
Refinery Margins
Seasonal summer softness caused by refinery maintenance
- April and September historical peaks for maintenance
- Less pronounced in 2022 and so far in 2023
-
VLCC currently fix oil landing late Sep, early October
-
Margin references firming in all basins
- Diesel margins leading the pace, typical for the season
- Mild winter last year in the Northern hemisphere will it be repeated?
Orderbooks
| 2023 | Fleet | 20 + | % above | Orderbook | % of Fleet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | 883 | 108 | 12.23% | 13 | 1.5 % |
| Suezmax | 607 | 85 | 14.00% | 27 | 4.4 % |
| LR2 | 424 | 25 | 5.90% | 82 | 19.3 % |
| Total Fleet | 1,914 | 218 | 11.39% | 122 | 6.4 % |
Delivered Sum on order Scrapped 20Y+
On order Sum on order 20Y+
Summary
- Highest Q2 profit since 2008 \$210 million Cash dividend of \$0.80 per share
- Asia demand supportive OPEC Cuts drive ton-miles
- Price Cap on Russian crude starting to bite
- Seasonal refinery maintenance period coming to an end, margins improving
- Ordering still muted, except for LR2
- How will the winter play out this year?
Questions & Answers
www.frontlineplc.cy
Appendix 1
Non-GAAP measures reconciliation
| (in thousands of \$ except per share) | Q2 2023 | FY 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission | ||||
| Total operating revenues | 512,763 | 497,332 | 530,141 | 1,430,208 |
| Voyage expenses and commission | (156,610) | (158,827) | (177,295) | (605,544) |
| Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission | 356,153 | Q1 2023 Q4 2022 338,505 352,846 199,626 239,054 3,173 — — — — — 7,364 1,116 — — — — — — — (23,023) (3,738) (2,632) — — — (12,709) — — (397) — (527) (542) 192,792 213,973 222,623 222,623 \$ 0.87 \$ 0.96 \$ 199,626 239,054 45,417 33,446 161 — 202 55,546 42,882 (2,873) (1,097) — (186) — — — — 297,530 314,487 297,530 314,487 3,173 — — — — — — — — — (23,023) (3,738) (2,632) (12,709) — — (397) — (527) (542) 283,332 288,290 |
824,664 | |
| Adjusted profit | ||||
| Profit | 230,674 | 475,537 | ||
| Add back: | ||||
| Loss on marketable securities | 20,795 | 12,005 | ||
| Share of losses of associated company | 92 | |||
| Unrealized loss on derivatives (1) | 1,116 | |||
| Loss on termination of leases | 431 | |||
| Less: | ||||
| Unrealized gain on derivatives (1) | (6,075) | (51,108) | ||
| Gain on marketable securities | (70,364) | |||
| Share of results of associated company | (1,217) | (14,335) | ||
| Amortization of acquired time charters | (2,806) | |||
| Gain on sale of vessels | (9,251) | (4,618) | ||
| Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims | (3,998) | |||
| Dividends received | (24,973) | (1,579) | ||
| Adjusted profit | 209,953 | 340,373 | ||
| Weighted average number of ordinary shares (basic and diluted) | 222,623 | 214,011 | ||
| Adjusted basic and diluted earnings per share \$ |
0.94 | 1.59 | ||
| EBITDA | ||||
| Profit | 230,674 | 475,537 | ||
| Add back: | ||||
| Finance expense | 32,390 | 45,330 | ||
| Income tax expense | 425 | |||
| Depreciation | 57,096 | 165,170 | ||
| Less: | ||||
| Finance income | (4,855) | (1,479) | ||
| Income tax benefit | (13) | |||
| Amortization of acquired time charters | (2,806) | |||
| EBITDA | 315,466 | 682,164 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | ||||
| EBITDA | 315,466 | 682,164 | ||
| Add back: | ||||
| Loss on marketable securities | 20,795 | 12,005 | ||
| Share of losses of associated company | 92 | |||
| Loss on termination of leases | 431 | |||
| Less: | ||||
| Gain on marketable securities | (70,364) | |||
| Share of results of associated company | (1,217) | (14,335) | ||
| Gain on sale of vessels | (9,251) | (4,618) | ||
| Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims | (3,998) | |||
| Dividend received | (24,973) | (1,579) | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 300,820 | 599,798 |
This presentation describes: Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission ("Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses)", Adjusted profit (loss) ("Profit (loss) adj") and related per share amounts, Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation ("Adjusted EBITDA" or "EBITDA adj") and Adjusted Interest Expense ("Interest expense adj"), which are not measures prepared in accordance with IFRS ("non-GAAP").
We believe the non-GAAP financial measures provide investors with a means of analyzing and understanding the Company's ongoing operating performance.
The non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS.
Due to rounding, numbers presented throughout this document may not add up precisely to the totals provided.
(1) Adjusted profit has been revised to only exclude the unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives to give effect to the economic benefit/cost provided by our interest rate swap agreements. A reconciliation of the gain (loss) on derivatives and adjusted interest expense is as follows:
| (in thousands \$) | Q2 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q4 2022 | FY 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives | 6,075 | (7,364) | (1,116) | 49,992 |
| Interest income on derivatives | 5,551 | 4,964 | 3,697 | 3,631 |
| Gain (loss) on derivatives | 11,626 | (2,400) | 2,581 | 53,623 |
| Adjusted interest expense | ||||
| Finance expense | 32,390 | 45,417 | 33,446 | 45,330 |
| Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives | 6,075 | (7,364) | (1,116) | 49,992 |
| Other financial expenses | (363) | (69) | (170) | (241) |
| Adjusted interest expense | 38,102 | 37,984 | 32,160 | 95,081 |