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Frontline Plc — Investor Presentation 2023
Oct 9, 2023
6242_rns_2023-10-09_e24e646e-c8a7-4787-b923-387c2016242e.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Investor presentation October 2023

MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.
FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.

| Acquisition of 24 modern VLCCs from Euronav |
Acquisition fleet comprising 24x VLCCs of which 9 vessels are scrubber-fitted ✓ ✓ Modern and high-quality fleet with an average age of 5.3 years – 100% ECO vessels ✓ All vessels on the water ensuring immediate cash flow generation into the winter season |
|---|---|
| Cementing position as the leading tanker powerhouse |
✓ Increasing fleet size to 89 (65) vessels making Frontline the largest tanker owner in the public domain (measured by DWT) ✓ Reducing average fleet age to 6.1 years improving fuel efficiency and lowering average fleet emissions ✓ Increasing operational leverage towards the shipping segment with the highest upside on continued market strengthening without growing orderbook |
| Significantly boosting earnings power and dividend capacity |
✓ Acquisition fully funded through attractive debt package enabling for swift execution with low complexity ✓ Transaction accretive to free cash flow and earnings per share, boosting Frontline's dividend capacity ✓ Robust balance sheet before and after transaction, supporting commitment to shareholder distributions |
| Opportune time to increase tanker exposure |
✓ Lowest VLCC orderbook since 1980s, combined with ageing fleet and upcoming regulations leave room for highly attractive supply side dynamics ✓ Chinese imports moving to all-time-high - Russian sanctions continue to yield inefficient trading patterns Strong rates and attractive supply outlook, setting the VLCC market up for several years with strong earnings potential ✓ |
Fully funded acquisition of 24 ECO VLCC tankers from Euronav

High-quality fleet on the water ensuring immediate cash flow generation into the winter season
Fleet acquisition overview
| # Name |
Type | DWT | Built | Yard / country | ECO | Scrubber | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24x | 1 Clovis |
VLCC | 299 158 | 2023 | HSHI | Korea | ✓ | ✓ |
| VLCCs | 2 Camus |
VLCC | 299 158 | 2023 | HSHI | Korea | ✓ | ✓ |
| 3 Cassius |
VLCC | 299 158 | 2023 | HSHI | Korea | ✓ | ✓ | |
| 4 Dickens |
VLCC | 299 550 | 2021 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | ✓ | |
| 5.3 | 5 Doris |
VLCC | 300 200 | 2021 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | ✓ |
| 6 Delos |
VLCC | 300 200 | 2021 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | ✓ | |
| 7 Diodorus |
VLCC | 300 200 | 2021 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | ✓ | |
| Average age | 8 Dalis |
VLCC | 299 995 | 2020 | Okpo Shipyard |
Korea | ✓ | ✓ |
| 9 Derius |
VLCC | 299 995 | 2019 | Okpo shipyard |
Korea | ✓ | ✓ | |
| 10 Hatteras |
VLCC | 297 363 | 2017 | Hanjin Subic | Philippines | ✓ | ||
| 11 Amundsen |
VLCC | 298 991 | 2017 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 24x | 12 Aquitaine |
VLCC | 298 767 | 2017 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | |
| ECO vessels | 13 Ardeche |
VLCC | 298 642 | 2017 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | |
| 14 Heron |
VLCC | 297 363 | 2017 | Hanjin Subic | Phillipines | ✓ | ||
| 15 Andaman |
VLCC | 299 392 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 16 Arafura |
VLCC | 298 991 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 22x | 17 Aral |
VLCC | 299 999 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | |
| Korean built | 18 Anne |
VLCC | 299 533 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | |
| 19 Alboran |
VLCC | 298 991 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 20 Alex |
VLCC | 299 445 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 21 Drenec |
VLCC | 299 999 | 2016 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 22 Desirade |
VLCC | 299 999 | 2016 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | ||
| 9x | 23 Dominica |
VLCC | 299 999 | 2015 | Daewoo | Korea | ✓ | |
| Scrubber-fitted | 24 Alice |
VLCC | 299 320 | 2016 | Hyundai | Korea | ✓ |

Transaction fully funded through an attractive debt package enabling for swift execution and low complexity
- Attractive purchase price of \$2,350 million
- Transaction fully funded by the sale of Frontline's shares in Euronav to CMB (13.7m shares generating proceeds of \$252 million), cash on hand, drawdown under the existing \$275 million senior unsecured revolving credit facility* and a new \$1,410 million 5-year senior secured term loan facility provided by a selection of leading lending banks
- Supportive main owner Hemen Holding Ltd. has offered Frontline a subordinated unsecured shareholder loan up to \$540 million on similar terms as the bank loan to enable swift execution and time to optimize the capital structure post-closing
- Comfortable debt capacity Capacity to re-lever the existing fleet due to the historically low loan-tovalue in Frontline
- The sale of the Euronav shares and the fleet acquisition is inter-conditional, and such inter-conditionality has to be approved by the Euronav shareholders meeting through a 50% + one vote majority
- Transaction conditional on customary anti-trust approvals and is expected to close in Q4 2023
- As part of the agreements, the arbitration initiated by Euronav against Frontline will be terminated
- Strong balance sheet No newbuilding commitments and no meaningful debt commitments before 2027
Cementing Frontline's position

Increasing fleet size by 57% (dwt) in an illiquid re-sale market, without impacting orderbook

Source: DNB Equity Research *Frontline and Euronav fleet figures pro-forma for transaction
DWTm
Post transaction cash generation

6
Average cash breakeven increases with operation leverage – but so does the potential cash generation

Efficient operations with average cash breakeven rates of \$27,500, including dry dock costs for eight VLCCs and three SMAX tankers in 2024
2024 fleet average opex incl. drydock \$8,300

Huge cash generation potential
Free Cash Flow indicates strong potential return

Source: Clarksons SIN. Note: Daily cash breakeven and opex in USD based on estimate for 2024 and expected re-leveraging of existing fleet. Free cash flow based on 89 vessels in total. (*) Based on closing price on 6th Oct, 2023. (**) TCE rates based on Clarkson Research for the period 2000- Q2 2023 and (***) hypothetical TCE rates, adjusted for same relative performance as historical average (2018-Q2 2023) between the three segments. Both (**) and (***) adjusted for ECO / Scrubber (Jul 22-Jun 23 data).
Low orderbook has historically been a trigger for outsized rates

Current VLCC orderbook among the lowest seen in shipping ever
11% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 2% Car carriers (6,500 CEU - 2020) LNG (General LNG - 2010) Container (General Containership - 2020) LPG (VLGC - 2011) Product (MR - 2022) Drybulk (Panamax - 2002) Crude (VLCC - 2023) 70 2011-2013 avg. Long-term avg. 109 +56% 2012-2014 avg. Long-term avg. 48 37 +29% 2003-2005 avg. Long-term avg. 26 18 +42% 29 2023-2025 avg. Long-term avg. 17 TBD 2021-2023 avg. 31 Long-term avg. 65 +113% 2024-2026 avg. Long-term avg. 43 TBD 48 2021-2023 avg. Long-term avg. 18 +168% Orderbook-to-fleet (%) Rates (\$k/day)
All time low orderbook-to-fleet ratio per shipping segment vs average rates in the subsequent three years*
Unique combination of high utilization & rates and record low orderbook

VLCC orderbook of 2% despite VLCC earnings of ~\$40k/day last 12 months and 1yr forward TC rates of \$53k/day*

VLCC orderbook to fleet ratio vs VLCC earnings last 12 months rolling average
Source: Clarksons SIN *1yr TC including scrubber and ECO
Highly compelling supply side fundamentals

High number of recycling and slow-steaming candidates, while ordering remains muted
- VLCC orderbook at record low levels of ~2%
- VLCC ordering remains muted: Only 11 vessels ordered last 12 months representing ~1% of the fleet
- Increased recycling pressure 14% of VLCC fleet are older than 20 years and ~30% of the VLCC fleet older than 15 years
- Highest fleet age since 2001
- Increased slow-steaming a potential consequence of EEXI & CII regulatory pressure. 30% of fleet non-ECO
- Reduced yard capacity: Shipyards filled with contracts for other shipping sectors including LNG and containers – earliest newbuilding slots in 2026

Number of VLCCs delivered by year*
Oil demand

Carrying capacity of deep-sea tankers in question
- EIA believes in 104.6 mbd demand by Dec 24, up 2.8 mbd from August
- ~92 VLCC equivalents* are needed, but only 17 to come
- 54 VLCC equivalents turn 20 years by 2025
- Efficiency of tankers reduces by age as limited customer base
- Current age limitations imposed by traders, oil majors and NOC's may come in question
- Only likely in case of a strong price signal

VLCC equivalents by end 2024
EIA total world oil liquid fuels consumption

10 Source: Clarkson and EIA Sep-23 * Assumes average voyage length of 60 and 40 days for VLCC and Suezmax respectively
Oil trades longer

Regional supply and demand dislocation amplify freight demand

World quarterly net exports crude and condensate

Uniquely positioned to benefit from a tight market balance
- Frontline more than doubles its VLCC position, in an illiquid re-sale market
- Increases operational leverage as global oil demand is expected to grow beyond pre-pandemic highs
- Frontline's total fleet grows by 57% in dwt terms, 37% in terms of sailing days
- Based on tanker supply, high forward visibility due to historical low orderbooks
- Fully financed transaction with an attractive debt package
- Highly accretive to free cash flow and earnings per share


www.frontlineplc.cy
