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Frontline Plc Investor Presentation 2023

Nov 30, 2023

6242_rns_2023-11-30_d3c9061b-bedd-43a0-b411-245dff6fc549.pdf

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Third Quarter Presentation Nov 2023

MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.

FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.

THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.

IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.

On its way to become the largest tanker owner in the public domain

Reported earnings basis load to discharge

Q3 2023 Q4 2023 est. % done
VLCC \$42,500 \$48,100 81%
Suezmax \$37,600 \$50,300 70%
LR2 / Aframax \$33,900 \$51,300 70%
  • Profit of \$107.7 million, or \$0.48 per basic and diluted share for the third quarter of 2023
  • Adjusted profit of \$80.8 million, or \$0.36 per basic and diluted share for the third quarter of 2023
  • Reported revenues of \$377.1 million for the third quarter of 2023

  • Declared a cash dividend of \$0.30 per share for the third quarter of 2023
  • Announced agreement for an integrated solution to the strategic and structural deadlock in Euronav NV
  • Closed the sale of 13.7 million shares of Euronav to CMB NV for proceeds of \$252 million

  • Entered into agreements with Euronav to purchase 24 VLCCs with an average age of 5.3 years, for an aggregate purchase price of \$2,350.0 million from Euronav. All agreements are effective, and a majority of the vessels are expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the balance of the vessels are expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2024
  • Entered into a senior secured term loan facility with a group of our relationship banks in an amount of up to \$1410.0 million and a shareholder loan from Hemen in an amount up to \$539.9 million to partly finance the Acquisition

Profit Statement – Highlights

2023 2023 2022
(in thousands of \$ except per share data) Jul - Sep Apr - Jun Jan - Dec
Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses)* 232 135 356 153 824 664
Other income 400 9 391 8 040
Ship operating expenses (44 102) (43 772) (175 164)
Administrative expenses (15 298) (11 701) (47 374)
EBITDA 200 339 315 466 682 164
EBITDA adj* 173 034 300 820 601 377
Interest expense adj* (37 724) (38 102) (95 081)
Profit 107 743 230 674 475 537
Profit adj* 80 813 209 953 341 952
Basic and diluted earnings per share 0,48 1,04 2,22
Basic and diluted earnings per share adjusted 0,36 0,94 1,60
Dividend per share 0,30 0,80 1,22

Notes

  • Adjusted net income in the third quarter decreased by \$129.2 million compared with the second quarter, primarily due to a decrease in our time charter equivalent earnings, due to lower TCE rates, partially offset by fluctuations in other income and expenses.
  • The adjustments in the third quarter of 2023 consist of:
    • \$17.9 million gain on marketable securities,
    • \$1.7 million share of losses of associated companies,
    • \$0.4 million unrealized loss on derivatives and
    • \$11.1 million of dividends received.

Note: Diluted earnings per share is based on 222,623 and 222,623 weighted average shares (in thousands) outstanding for Q3 2023 and Q2 2023, respectively *See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP figures

4

Balance Sheet - Highlights

2023 2023 2022
(in
millions
\$)
Sep
30
Jun
30
Dec
31
Assets
Cash 285 307 255
Other
current
assets
570 591 627
Non-current
assets
Vessels
and
newbuildings
3
567
3
625
3
709
Goodwill 112 112 112
Other
non-current
assets
65 67 73
Total
assets
4
600
4
702
4
776
Liabilities
and
Equity
Short
debt
and
portion
of
long
debt
term
current
term
365 363 258
Obligations
under
leases
1 1 1
Other
current
payables
111 104 132
Non-current
liabilities
Long
term
debt
1
890
1
933
2
112
Obligations
under
leases
2 2 2
Other
payables
non-current
5 3 2
Non-controlling
interest
(0) (0) (0)
Frontline
plc
stockholders'
equity
2
226
2
297
2
268
Total
liabilities
and
equity
4
600
4
702
4
776
  • Strong liquidity of \$715 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount of senior unsecured revolving credit facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements bank as per 30.09.23
  • Current portion of long term debt includes ~ \$91 million from a loan facility due in Q 1 - 24, which was refinanced in November 2023 and \$75.3 million related to the senior unsecured revolving credit facility which in October 2023 was extended to Q 1 -26
  • No remaining newbuilding commitments and no meaningful debt maturities until 2027
  • Healthy leverage ratio of 52 %

Competitive cash breakeven rates of \$24.200 fleet average, including dry dock costs for one VLCC and seven SMAX* tankers in the fourth quarter of 2023 at estimated cost of \$2.000

Q3-23 fleet average opex excl. drydock \$7.400

Fully funded Acquisition of 24 modern VLCCs

High-quality fleet on the water ensuring immediate cash flow generation into the winter season

Attractive debt package enabling for swift execution and low complexity

Ambition to minimize need for cash from shareholder loan through Frontlines capacity to re-leverage the existing fleet due to the historically low loan-to value and/or sale of older non-eco less efficient vessels.

Q3-23 and the Current Market

  • G7 price cap and increased scrutiny on ex-Russia players
  • China continue to grind record volumes, US exports surprise to the upside
  • US sanctions on Venezuela lifted
  • Growing political risk Israel/Hamas conflict
  • "Normal" seasonality at play
  • OPEC action balancing markets?

BDTI TD3C-TCE 270,000t Middle East Gulf to

BCTI TC1-TCE 75,000t Middle East Gulf to Japan

OPEC – Output / Production / Exports

  • Neither "Output" nor "Production" equals Exports
  • Oil demand is firm, but OPEC not the only supplier
  • Production targets leaves room for exports to be adjusted
  • Exports more correlated to domestic demand amongst the large producers
  • Oil revenue is maybe what really matters

18

19

19

20

20

Mbpd

21

21

22

22

Tanker narrative these days

  • Russia, Iran and Venezuela resilient and growing exporters
  • US exports at record highs and increasing
  • Venezuela expected to increase exports by 300kpd short term to reach ~6-700kbd annually
  • ~2.5 mbd of refinery capacity now back after fall maintenance, peak runs in January

Russian Federation Iran Venezuela

The Very Long View

38

  • East and West of Suez and the "pipelines" of the oceans
  • New oil production capacity and shale oil contribution West of Suez
  • Refinery capacity buildup East of Suez
  • Both Crude transportation (feedstock) and Products trade benefit from this development
  • Future tanker capacity not reflecting the projected trade extension

Mbpd

Billion \$

Source: EIA, OPEC. West of Suez includes: West Africa, Venezuela, US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Other non-OPEC Americas and Western Europe 11

Orderbooks

NOV 2023 Fleet 15 + % above 15 20 + % above 20 Orderbook % of Fleet
VLCC 885 248 28.02 % 108 12.20 % 16 1.8 %
Suezmax 608 193 31.74 % 84 13.82 % 50 8.2 %
LR2 428 96 22.43 % 25 5.84 % 91 21.3 %
Total Fleet 1921 537 27.95 % 217 11.30 % 157 8.2 %

EU ETS

Summary

Tankers are performing… and now time for the VLCC to shine?

  • Frontline more than doubles its VLCC position, gearing up for tighter fundamentals
  • The fundamental backdrop remains - decades low orderbooks and extended lead times
  • Increases operational leverage as global oil demand is expected to grow beyond pre-pandemic highs
  • Short- and medium-term Oil demand expectations are good
  • Political risk increases the tension in oil and freight markets
  • Frontlines large modern fleet and efficient business model is ready as the next chapter unfolds

Average Weighted Earnings All Tankers

Questions & Answers

www.frontlineplc.cy

Appendix 1 Non-GAAP measures reconciliation

(in thousands of \$ except per share) Q3 2023 Q2 2023 Q1 2023 Q4 2022 FY 2022
Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission
Total operating revenues 377,085 512,763 497,332 530,141 1,430,208
Voyage expenses and commission (145,051) (156,610) (158,827) (177,295) (605,544)
Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission 232,034 356,153 338,505 352,846 824,664
Adjusted profit
Profit 107,743 230,674 199,626 239,054 475,537
Add back:
Loss on marketable securities 20,795 3,173 12,005
Share of losses of associated company 1,690 92
Unrealized loss on derivatives (1) 375 7,364 1,116 1,116
Loss on termination of leases 431
Less:
Unrealized gain on derivatives (1) (6,075) (51,108)
Gain on marketable securities (17,883) (23,023) (70,364)
Share of results of associated company (1,217) (3,738) (2,632) (14,335)
Amortization of acquired time charters (2,806)
Gain on sale of vessels (9,251) (12,709) (4,618)
Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims (397) (3,998)
Dividends received (11,112) (24,973) (527) (542) (1,579)
Adjusted profit 80,813 209,953 192,792 213,973 340,373
Weighted average number of ordinary shares (basic and diluted) 222,623 222,623 222,623 222,623 214,011
Adjusted basic and diluted earnings per share
\$
0.36
\$
0.94
\$
0.87
\$
0.96
\$
1.59
EBITDA
Profit 107,743 230,674 199,626 239,054 475,537
Add back:
Finance expense 38,110 32,390 45,417 33,446 45,330
Income tax expense 4 161 202 425
Depreciation 58,282 57,096 55,546 42,882 165,170
Less:
Finance income (3,800) (4,855) (2,873) (1,097) (1,479)
Income tax benefit (186) (13)
Amortization of acquired time charters (2,806)
EBITDA 200,339 315,466 297,530 314,487 682,164
Adjusted EBITDA
EBITDA 200,339 315,466 297,530 314,487 682,164
Add back:
Loss on marketable securities 20,795 3,173 12,005
Share of losses of associated company 1,690 92
Loss on termination of leases 431
Less:
Gain on marketable securities (17,883) (23,023) (70,364)
Share of results of associated company (1,217) (3,738) (2,632) (14,335)
Gain on sale of vessels (9,251) (12,709) (4,618)
Gain on settlement of insurance and other claims (397) (3,998)
Dividend received (11,112) (24,973) (527) (542) (1,579)
Adjusted EBITDA 173,034 300,820 283,332 288,290 599,798

This presentation describes: Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses and commission ("Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses)", Adjusted profit (loss) ("Profit (loss) adj") and related per share amounts, Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation ("Adjusted EBITDA" or "EBITDA adj") and Adjusted Interest Expense ("Interest expense adj"), which are not measures prepared in accordance with IFRS ("non-GAAP").

We believe the non-GAAP financial measures provide investors with a means of analyzing and understanding the Company's ongoing operating performance.

The non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with IFRS.

Due to rounding, numbers presented throughout this document may not add up precisely to the totals provided.

(1) Adjusted profit has been revised to only exclude the unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives to give effect to the economic benefit/cost provided by our interest rate swap agreements. A reconciliation of the gain (loss) on derivatives and adjusted interest expense is as follows:

(in thousands \$) Q3 2023 Q2 2023 Q1 2023 Q4 2022 FY 2022
Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives (375) 6,075 (7,364) (1,116) 49,992
Interest income on derivatives 6,116 5,551 4,964 3,697 3,631
Gain (loss) on derivatives 5,741 11,626 (2,400) 2,581 53,623
Adjusted interest expense
Finance expense
38,110 32,390 45,417 33,446 45,330
Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives (375) 6,075 (7,364) (1,116) 49,992
Other financial expenses (11) (363) (69) (170) (241)
Adjusted interest expense 37,724 38,102 37,984 32,160 95,081