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Frontline Plc — Investor Presentation 2018
Feb 28, 2018
6242_rns_2018-02-28_9f5af918-1294-4e71-a0b3-7a068a75143a.pdf
Investor Presentation
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"World leader in the international seaborne transportation of crude oil"
Quarterly Presentation| FEB 18
Forward Looking Statements
MATTERS DISCUSSED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONSTITUTE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 PROVIDES SAFE HARBOR PROTECTIONS FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO PROVIDE PROSPECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR BUSINESS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS.
FRONTLINE DESIRES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SAFE HARBOR PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND IS INCLUDING THIS CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SAFE HARBOR LEGISLATION. THE WORDS "BELIEVE," "ANTICIPATE," "INTENDS," "ESTIMATE," "FORECAST," "PROJECT," "PLAN," "POTENTIAL," "MAY," "SHOULD," "EXPECT" "PENDING" AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN FRONTLINE'S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH FRONTLINE BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND FRONTLINE'S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT FRONTLINE WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND FRONTLINE UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES.
IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN FRONTLINE'S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN FRONTLINE'S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR FRONTLINE'S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF THESE AND OTHER RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTLINE'S BUSINESS, PLEASE REFER TO FRONTLINE'S FILINGS WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 20-F.
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR A SOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.
Company Highlights
- Reports a net income attributable to the Company adjusted for certain non-cash items of \$5.0 million, or \$0.03 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2017.
- Reports a net loss attributable to the Company of \$248.4 million, or \$1.46 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2017, including noncash impairment losses of \$255.8 million
- Reports net loss attributable to the Company adjusted for certain non-cash items of \$4.4 million, or \$0.03 per share and a net loss attributable to the Company of \$264.9 million, or \$1.56 per share, respectively for the year ended December 31, 2017.
- Agreed with Ship Finance to terminate the long-term charter for the 1999-built VLCC Front Circassia
- Extended the terms of its senior unsecured loan facility of up to \$275.0 million facility with an affiliate of Hemen Holding Ltd by 12 months repayable in November 2019.
Q4 2017 Financial Highlights
| (Million \$ except per share) | 2017 Q4 | 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q2 | 2017 Q1 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating revenues (net of voyage expenses) (*) | 99 | 76 | 90 | 122 | 387 |
| Net Income (loss) | -248 | -24 | -19 | 27 | -265 |
| Net income (loss) adj (*) | 5 | -23 | -14 | 28 | -4 |
| EBITDA adj (*) | 62 | 31 | 37 | 78 | 208 |
| Earnings (loss) per share | -1,46 | -0,14 | -0,11 | 0,16 | -1,56 |
| Earnings (loss) per share adjusted | 0,03 | -0,14 | -0,08 | 0,16 | -0,03 |
| Cash | 105 | 120 | 129 | 128 | |
| Interest bearing debt | 1 580 | 1 594 | 1 365 | 1 153 |
(*) See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to nearest comparable GAAP figure
Earnings per share is based on 169,809,324 weighted average shares outstanding
Income Statement
| 2017 | 2017 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (in thousands of \$) | Oct - Dec | Jul - Sep | Jan-Dec |
| Total operating revenues | 178 580 | 140 471 | 646 326 |
| Other operating gain (loss) | 3 | (5 949) | 2 381 |
| Voyage expenses and commission | 79 384 | 64 610 | 259 334 |
| Contingent rental (income) expense | (6 957) | (6 735) | (26 148) |
| Ship operating expenses | 33 394 | 34 158 | 135 728 |
| Charter hire expenses | 1 990 | 3 104 | 19 705 |
| Impairment loss on vessels and vessels under capital lease | 142 940 | 0 | 164 187 |
| Impaiment loss on goodwill | 112 821 | 0 | 112 821 |
| Provision for uncollectible receivable | - | 0 | 0 |
| Administrative expenses | 8 884 | 9 552 | 37 603 |
| Depreciation | 36 388 | 35 220 | 141 748 |
| Total operating expenses | 408 844 | 139 909 | 844 978 |
| Net operating income (loss) | (230 261) | (5 387) | (196 271) |
| Interest income | 250 | 70 | 588 |
| Interest expense | (20 070) | (18 747) | (69 815) |
| Gain (loss) on sale of shares | (123) | (62) | 1 061 |
| Foreign currency exchange gain (loss) | (278) | (47) | (55) |
| Gain (loss) on derivatives | 2 331 | 200 | (753) |
| Other non-operating items | 62 | 86 | 1 213 |
| Net income (loss) before income taxes and non-controlling interest | (248 090) | (23 886) | (264 033) |
| Income tax expense | (181) | (16) | (290) |
| Net income (loss) | (248 271) | (23 903) | (264 323) |
| Net (income) loss attributable to non-controlling interest | (161) | (169) | (539) |
| Net income (loss) attributable to the Company | (248 432) | (24 072) | (264 862) |
| Basic earnings (loss) per share attributable to the Company (\$) | (1,46) | (0,14) | (1,56) |
| Weighted average number of ordinary shares (in thousands) | 169 809 | 169 809 | 169 809 |
Non-cash items in the fourth quarter of 2017:
- \$142.9 million impairment loss on nine VLCCs leased from Ship Finance.
- \$112.8 million impairment loss on goodwill
- \$2.3 million gain on derivatives
Balance Sheet
| 2017 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (in million \$) | Dec 31 | Sep 30 | Dec 31 |
| Assets | |||
| Current assets | |||
| Cash | 105 | 120 | 203 |
| Marketable securites | 19 | 32 | 8 |
| Other current assets | 198 | 163 | 172 |
| Non-current assets | |||
| Newbuildings | 80 | 73 | 308 |
| Vessels | 2 616 | 2 772 | 2 014 |
| Goodwill | 112 | 225 | 225 |
| Other long-term assets | 4 | 26 | 35 |
| Total assets | 3 134 | 3 411 | 2 966 |
| Liabilities and Equity | |||
| Current liabilities | |||
| Short term debt | 113 | 102 | 67 |
| Obligations under capital lease | 43 | 42 | 57 |
| Other current liabilities | 66 | 70 | 59 |
| Non-current liabilities | |||
| Long term debt | 1 467 | 1 492 | 915 |
| Obligations under capital lease | 256 | 267 | 366 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Frontline Ltd. stockholders' equity | 1 188 | 1 437 | 1 500 |
| Total liabilities and stockholders' equity | 3 134 | 3 411 | 2 966 |
- \$307 million in cash and cash equivalents including undrawn amount of unsecured facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements bank
- \$305 million in remaining Capex and \$252 million in estimated debt capacity
- Newbuilding program fully funded
- No near term debt maturities
- 2018: N/A
- Nov 2019: \$90 million
Cash Breakeven Rates and Opex
Cash BE estimate remainder of 2018 Opex Q4 2017
• Estimated cash cost breakeven rates for the remainder of 2018 include bareboat hire / installments, interest loans, opex/drydock and G&A expenses.
*Source : Clarksons
Q4 Performance and Q1 Guidance
Current Market
Source: Clarkson
OECD Inventory Cycles & Freight
Source: EIA, Clarkson
10 Quarterly Presentation| FEB 18
Global Oil Demand
Source: EIA, OPEC, Clarkson, Frontline
Crude Tanker Order book
Pace of 2017 newbuilding deliveries continuing
- 50 VLCCs and 51 Suezmaxes delivered in 2017.
- Delivery pace continuing in 2018
Older vessels leaving the fleet
- 13 VLCCs and 12 Suezmaxes reported scrapped in 2017
- 7 VLCCs reported sold for scrap in 2018
Source: Fearnleys
Fourth Quarter 2017
Scrapping Finally a Real Alternative
Source: Clarkson
Summary
Bullish Factors Bearish Factors
- Crude oil demand growth continues to be strong
- Trade routes evolving, US exports to Asia growing fast
- Global Inventories below 5yr averages in days supply, draw cycle expected to slow
- Scrapping gaining pace, scrap prices continue to firm
-
New ordering slow albeit low prices
-
A significant number of newbuildings to be delivered
- Crude oil structure not supportive of inventory growth
- Demand for crude oil may fail to meet forecasts
Fundamental factors are in favor of a strong tanker market, but the fleet needs to re-balance from the present oversupply, this could happen faster than many anticipate. Frontline is well positioned.
www.frontline.bm
Appendix
| Appendix 1 Reconciliation |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Million \$ except per share) | Q4 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q2 2017 | Q1 2017 | YTD |
| Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses | |||||
| Total operating revenues | 179 | 140 | 150 | 177 | 646 |
| Voyage expenses | -79 | -65 | -60 | -55 | -259 |
| Total operating revenues net of voyage expenses | 99 | 76 | 90 | 122 | 387 |
| Net income adj. | |||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to the Company | -248 | -24 | -19 | 27 | -265 |
| Add back: | |||||
| Loss on termination of vessel lease, net of cash paid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Vessel impairment loss | 143 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 164 |
| Goodwill impairment loss | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 |
| Loss on derivatives | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Less: | |||||
| Gain on termination of lease | 0 | 0 | 0 | -21 | -21 |
| Gain on derivatives | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net income adj. | 5 | -23 | -14 | 28 | -4 |
| (in thousands) | |||||
| Weighted average number of ordinary shares | 169 809 | 169 809 | 169 809 | 169 809 | 169 809 |
| (in \$) | |||||
| Basic earnings per share adjusted for certain non-cash charges | 0,03 | -0,14 | -0,08 | 0,16 | -0,03 |
| EBITDA adj. | |||||
| Net income attributable to the Company | -248 | -24 | -19 | 27 | -265 |
| Add back: Interest expense |
20 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 70 |
| Depreciation | 36 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 142 |
| Income tax expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net income attributable to the non-controlling interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Loss on termination of vessel lease, net of cash paid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Vessel impairment loss | 143 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 164 |
| Goodwill impairment loss | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 |
| Loss on derivatives | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Less: | |||||
| Gain on termination of lease | 0 | 0 | 0 | -21 | -21 |
| Gain on derivatives | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
| EBITDA adj. | 62 | 31 | 37 | 78 | 208 |
This presentation describes: total operating revenues net of voyage expenses, net income attributable to the Company adjusted for certain non-cash items ("Net income adj.") and related per share amounts and Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation adjusted for the same non-cash items ("EBITDA adj."), which are not measures prepared in accordance with US GAAP ("non-GAAP").
We believe the non-GAAP financial measures presented in this press release provides investors with a means of evaluating and understanding how the Company's management evaluates the Company's operating performance.
These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, nor superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.