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FAR LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2015
May 11, 2015
64899_rns_2015-05-11_3be983f7-68d1-49de-ac1c-559f012edda9.pdf
Investor Presentation
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12 May 2015
Senegal presentation released by Cairn Energy
The Operator of the Senegal JV, Cairn Energy PLC has released the attached presentation from the Capital Markets Day in London on 11 May 2015. FAR looks forward to our AGM in Melbourne this Friday and follow up presentations in Perth, Sydney and the Gold Coast which will be focussed on the Company and our world class asset offshore Senegal.
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Capital Markets Day Senegal - Building on Success May 2015
Delivering value from discovery and development
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Disclaimer
These materials contain forward-looking statements regarding Cairn, our corporate plans, future financial condition, future results of operations, future business plans and strategies. All such forward-looking statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in the light of information available to them at this time.
These forward-looking statements are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties and actual results, performance and achievements may be materially different from those expressed in such statements. Factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ from expectations include, but are not limited to, regulatory changes, future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, weather and weather related impacts, wars and acts of terrorism, development and use of technology, acts of competitors and other changes to business conditions.
Cairn undertakes no obligation to revise any such forwardlooking statements to reflect any changes in Cairn's expectations with regard thereto or any change in circumstances or events after the date hereof.
Cairn makes no representations or warranties, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or quality of the data contained in this presentation; and Cairn, its Directors, officers, employees, agents, consultants and advisers shall bear no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of or reliance on the data by any third party.
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Capital Markets Day, May 2015 3
Fire Safet and Evacuation y
Rothschild operates a phased evacuation system. The following announcements will sound via the public address system:
-
Stand by message – stay on your floor and await further instruction
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Evacuation message – exit the building immediately via your nearest emergency exit
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SKY
PAVILLION
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Fire Assembly Point
This is the meeting
point after evacuating
the building
Abchurch Yard
(via Abchurch Lane)
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Strategy
Simon Thomson
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
5
Strate gy
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Balanced
Business Model
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Fully Funded
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Senegal
Value
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Mature basin exploration and development
Frontier and emerging basin exploration
Core development assets through to free cash flow
Value-add exploration and appraisal
-
World class new basin play
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Up to six wells commencing Q4 2015
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Selected 7[th] generation dual activity drillship
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Full block potential of gross mean risked resource of > 1 bn bbls
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Rapid appraisal of SNE-1 discovery
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
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Strategy Consistent Strate ic Deliver for more than 20 Years g y
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Experienced and successful exploration, appraisal and development operator
Operations conducted onshore and offshore, shallow and deepwater, benign and harsh weather
environments
Focus on highest HSE standards and sustainable development practices
Model corporate citizen with demonstrable, successful record of community investment
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Successful track record of adding value to Joint Venture partnerships
Delivered a series of flagship developments from exploration successes in South Asia
Focus on monetisation of success
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In excess of US$4.5 billion (bn) returned to shareholders over last decade
Commitment to continued delivery of value from discovery and development
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
7
A enda g
Strate gy
Ex loration p
Sene al g
Discoveries and A raisal pp
Development
rations Ope
Adding Value
Economics and Fundin g
Conclusion
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CEO Simon Thomson
Exploration Director - Richard Heaton
Regional Director, Africa - Rob Jones
Senegal Exploration Manager - Martin Dashwood
Senegal Exploitation Manager - Chris Burnside
COO – Paul Mayland
Exploration Director - Richard Heaton
CFO - James Smith
CEO Simon Thomson
Delivering value from discovery and development
Exploration
Richard Heaton
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 9
Exploration Creatin Growth Throu h Ex loration g g p
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Significant acreage positions with
technical and commercial value
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Range of opportunities with
appropriate spectrum of risk
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Material discoveries and
prospectivity in North Atlantic
margin plays
Mature and emerging basins
in UK and Norway
Low cost, long lead prospect
generation
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 10
Exploration Atlantic Mar in – Geolo ical Focus g g
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Countries
illustrative geological reconstruction of the world ~175 million years ago
- Senegal one licence, three blocks
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Morocco
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Mauritania
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Republic of Ireland
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Greenland
Recent Activity
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Two operated wells offshore Senegal
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Two operated wells offshore Morocco; one non operated well offshore Western Sahara
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3D seismic survey offshore Republic of Ireland
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 11
Exploration Re ional Settin g g
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Exploration strategy focused on multiple play types
formed from break-up of supercontinent Pangaea
Provides underexplored mature hydrocarbon basins of Foum
Draa
Juby Morocco
Maritime
Mesozoic and Tertiary age with common geologic
themes
Cap
Boujdour
Experience in passive margin and rift basin exploration
with operational capability in frontier areas
C-19
Mauritania
Deepwater areas adjacent to shelf acreage where a
number of wells were drilled in 1960s and 1970s
Wells encountered petroleum, demonstrating Senegal
potential for working hydrocarbon system, but without
confirming any commercially viable discoveries
Utilising modern 3D seismic data and drilling capability,
Cairn’s recent programme and success in Senegal has
opened up a new and emerging hydrocarbon basin
Global High: 550 Contract Area Fracture Zone
Free Air
Gravity Low: -170 Salt Basin Continent Ocean Boundary
Delivering value from discovery and development
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Capital Markets Day, May 2015 12
Exploration Sene al Focus of Interest g
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Previous offshore wells demonstrated oil on the shelf (Esso 1968-1972, Rufisque dome)
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Deep Sea Drilling Project wells further offshore (1970s) indicated Cretaceous source rocks – seen extensively on West African margin
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No wells previously in deepwater
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Cairn basin modelling suggested good chance of a mature source kitchen
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Tiof
Banda
Tortue-1 Chinguetti Tevet
Kosmos
Gas Discovery
2015
Mauritania
Faucon
Total Acreage
Shell ~7,490km [2]
1977
Esso
1969 Senegal
Rufisque Rufisque Wells
(1968-72, Esso)
Esso
4 Rufisque wells Senegal
1968-1972
Gambia
FAN-1 Sangomar GambiaSangomar
Deep
SNE-1
Dome Flores
Guinea
Oil and Gea
Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
Sinapa
Guinea
Gas Guinea
Senegal Basin Oil
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 13
Exploration Basin O enin Discoveries p g
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Proven hydrocarbon system in new Atlantic Margin basin
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Forward programme submitted to Government of Senegal last week:
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Appraisal and exploration drilling - 3 firm wells with potentially 3 or more wells
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Coring and testing
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Further 3D seismic
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Full block potential of gross mean risked resource of > 1 bn bbls
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SNE-1 - building a resource base towards development ~330 mmbbls 2C with initial projected production 50,000 – 100,000 bopd
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Sum of gross mean risked prospect resources ~380mmbbls
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Sum of gross mean risked lead resources ~350mmbbls
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Similar features to SNE-1 can be seen along trend
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Detailed seismic
interpretation:
spectral decomposition
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SNE-1
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~50km
Delivering value from discovery and development
Senegal
Rob Jones
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
15
Senegal Doin Business in Sene al g g
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Third year of investment with strong relationships at all levels of Government
Government
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Senegal is a stable democracy with an important regional role
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President Macky Sall (a geologist and geophysicist) came to power 2012 for 7 year term
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Prime Minister Mohammed Dionne; elected national assembly of 150 MPs
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Minister of Energy and Renewables, Madame Maimouna Seck, responsible for hydrocarbons sector
Economy
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One of West Africa’s most prosperous nations; US$15 bn economy
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Economy largely agriculture (20% of GDP, 60% of working population), together with fishing and tourism
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Offshore project has the potential to align with Senegal's transformation
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Senegal has a stable outlook and Standard and Poors 'B+/B‘
Senegal Regional Context
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Senegal is a key regional player; member of ECOWAS, African Union and Community of Saharan States
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World Bank, IFC, US, UK and EU Embassies all represented
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 16
Senegal O erational Infrastructure Dakar p
Excellent transport hub
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International, national airports
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Heliport
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One of the biggest ports in West Africa
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Key Government offices
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PETROSEN
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Senegal Parliament
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Palais Presidential
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Ministry of Energy
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DEEC (Direction de l'Environnement et des Établissements Classés)
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HASSMAR (Haute Autorité Chargéé de la Coordination de la Sécurité Maritime et de la Protection de l’Environnement Marin)
International embassies and institutions
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Dakar
US Embassy Senegal
IFC
World Bank PETROSEN Office
Cairn Office
HASSMAR
Ministry of Energy
Port
DEEC
Customs House
Senegal Parliament
Palais Presidential
British Embassy
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Hospitals
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 17
Senegal Joint Venture Partnershi p
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Strong and active international Joint Venture (JV): Cairn (Operator) 40%, ConocoPhillips 35%, FAR 15% and PETROSEN 10%
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Focus on highest HSE and security standards
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ConocoPhillips has extensive depth of knowledge and expertise
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FAR has participated in Senegal for almost a decade
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Cairn as JV Operator capable of moving at pace to deliver significant projects
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Farm-in to 3 blocks Exploration drilling First discovery
as Operator commences FAN-1
2013 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Farm-down to Second discovery
ConocoPhillips SNE-1
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 18
Senegal Joint Venture Partnershi and Governance p
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Senegal Evaluation Programme submitted to Government of Senegal
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Legal system:
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Petroleum Code allied to PSC; The code establishes investment framework, PSC establishes terms
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PSC has robust economics with appropriate ‘Frontier Exploration’ fiscal terms
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High level of cooperation from Government of Senegal and support from JV partners
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 19
Senegal 2015 O erations p
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Operations to commence Q4 2015
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2015 work programme:
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Three wells (two appraisal, one exploration) and 3D seismic
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Rig selected
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Environmental and Social Impact Assessment completed
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3D on Rufisque and Sangomar
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Potentially three or more wells to be presented to JV, Q3 2015 for the 2016 work programme
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Two Appraisal, one Exploration
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One licence, three blocks: Sangomar Deep, Sangomar and Rufisque
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Total Acreage
~7,490km [2]
FAN-1
Discovery Well
Seismic
Firm Well
SNE-1 Other Well
Discovery Well Proposed Survey
Area
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 20
Senegal From Ex loration to Ex loitation p p
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Exploration
Evaluation (Appraisal)
Exploitation (Development)
- Assume operatorship mid SNE discovery / appraisal 2013
FAN discovery / appraisal
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Commence operations New discoveries
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Apr 2014 Rufisque / Sangomar
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Announce discoveries Nov 2014 Further exploration drilling
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Submit Evaluation Achieve commerciality
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Programme May 2015 Prepare development plans
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Refine prospect inventory Define exploitation area
Integrated developments Multi-field multi-phase Ensure inter-field synergies Focus on early oil production Area extent to be determined
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
21
Senegal Evaluation Pro ramme Ob ectives g j
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Evaluation
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Gather sufficient data to produce an “Integrated Exploitation Plan”
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Determine the geological and petrophysical characteristics of the fields
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Estimated size and delineation of the field(s)
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Establish reservoir productivity
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Estimates of reserves enabling preliminary economic evaluation and the field(s) exploitation
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Estimates of recoverable reserves and forecast production
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The work necessary to exploit the discoveries / fields (well count, facilities, processing and storage)
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Implementation schedule, capital costs, and JV and Government of Senegal approval for
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future programmes
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 22
Senegal Vision Substantial Pros ectivit across all Three Blocks p y
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FAN-1 and SNE-1 Offer Commercial Potential, Especially In Combination With Near Field Tie-Backs
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FAN-1 and SNE-1 Discoveries
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Red seabed lines define contract area
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Currently 5 prospects and 18 leads
Provisional Area Development “Vision”
Delivering value from discovery and development
Discovery and Appraisal
Martin Dashwood
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015
24
Discovery and Appraisal The O ortunit pp y
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Pre Drill
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Active petroleum system with world class source rocks proven by FAN-1 and multiple plays
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FAN-1 and SNE-1 discoveries in Albian aged sandstones
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Initial belief: 7-8 play types
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Drilled two largest features: two wells covered as many play types as possible
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SNE-1 results beyond expectation – volumes more than double pre-drill estimates
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FAN-1 source rocks better than expected, reservoir quality under assessment
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Multiple on-trend leads and prospects actively being matured to drillable status
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3D acquisition agreed in 2015 to develop additional prospectivity to “drill ready” status within 2016
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Post Drill
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Deepwater
North Fan
Prospect
Shelf Edge
Prospect
FAN-1
Discovery Well
SNE-1
Discovery Well
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015
25
Discovery and Appraisal Discover Wells Drillin Schematic y g
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Two wells targeted multiple plays
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FAN – multiple deepwater stacked ‘fans’ of mid-upper Cretaceous and stratigraphic traps
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SNE – Cenomanian – Albian clastics over Aptian Carbonates – predominately structural traps
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SNE on budget, on time, no overpressure and no surprises in drilling
2D Seismic schematic
3D Seismic
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FAN-1 SNE-1 FAN-1 SNE-1
Basin Shelf
~25km
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 26
Discovery and Appraisal SNE-1 Well
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Potentially the world’s largest offshore oil discovery in 2014
-
Water depth 1,100 metres (m)
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Oil bearing column ~100m
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Net oil bearing reservoir 30m (plus 19m gas)
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Oil recoverable: Gross Contingent Resources 1C – 150 million barrels (mmbbls) 2C – 330 mmbbls
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3C – 670 mmbbls
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Oil gravity 32° API
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Comprehensive data suite
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Resource estimates audited by ERC-Equipoise
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SE
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NW
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 27
Discovery and Appraisal SNE-1 Ke Reservoir and H drocarbon Data y y
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SNE-1 Shelf Well
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Gas
-
Gross 107m
-
Net Pay 19m
-
Average Porosity (PHIE) 25%
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Average Hydrocarbon Saturation 70%
-
Oil
-
Gross 96m
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Net Pay 30m
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Average Porosity (PHIE) 24%
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Average Hydrocarbon Saturation 73%
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Water
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Gross 38m
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Average Porosity (PHIE) 22%
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SNE-1 MDT Pressure Profile
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0.12 psi/ft
~100m
Oil
0.31 psi/ft Column
0.45 psi/ft
GAS
OIL
WATER
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 28
Discovery and Appraisal SNE Field Forward Programme
SNE-1 Appraisal Objectives
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Drilling of optimum appraisal wells
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Coring and testing of the reservoir:
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Determine reservoir continuity and connectivity
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Establish productivity of the reservoirs
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Populate static and dynamic models
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Determine commerciality and underpin exploitation plan
Reduce uncertainty range
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Increase 1C resource
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Confirm and potentially increase 2C resource
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Evaluate further oil potential
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Continue shelf area exploration
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A
SNE-1
Discovery Well
A’
0 1 2
Km
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SE
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NW
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Delivering value from discovery and development
29
Discoveries and Appraisal A raisal Location Considerations pp
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Issues to consider and rank in choosing appraisal well locations
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SNE-1 Discovery
Reservoir
compartmentalisation
Depth conversion
Seismic attribute
Hydrocarbon contacts Reservoir quality
calibration
Flow assurance
Petrophysics
Inerts: CO2 Shallow hazardsScale risk Reservoir distribution AppraisalTargets
Wellbore stability
Oil composition Baffles
Aquifer extent
Charge history Lost circulation zones
Stratigraphy
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Expected Variability
HIGH
MEDIUM
Primary Variability Reduction
Expected Impact
LOW
Variability Reduction
Supplementary
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 30
Discovery and Appraisal SNE-1 A raisal Tar et Considerations pp g
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Central Location
Velocity control – depth mapping
DST of key reservoir zones North Flank
Evaluate all reservoir zones
Core (and/or DST)
North Flank
Evaluate oil potential in upper zones
Core (and/or DST)
Central
Confirm extent of sand bodies
SNE-1
Discovery Well
East Flank
Velocity control – depth mapping East Flank
Evaluate oil potential in all zones
Core
South Flank
Confirm oil potential of upper zones
Core (and/or DST) South Flank
Possible
Confirm possible extension of field Appraisal
southwards and/or highgrade satellite 0 Locations 1 2
prospect Km
Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) 1C 150 2C 330 3C 670
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 31
Discovery and Appraisal FAN-1 Well
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FAN-1
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- Water depth 1,427m
W
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E
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-
Hydrocarbon bearing interval >500m
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Multiple stacked deepwater Cretaceous fan sands
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Net oil bearing reservoirs 29m
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Gross Oil (STOIIP) in place: P90 – 250 mmbbls P50 – 950 mmbbls
P10 – 2,500 mmbbls
- Oil gravity 28-41° API
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FAN-1
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W
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E
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015
32
Discovery and Appraisal FAN-1 Forward Programme
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FAN Appraisal
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Seismic reprocessing and reservoir characterisation
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Ongoing analysis of rock and fluid samples, well log data
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Remapping of the field boundaries and surfaces
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Evaluation Programme submitted
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Potentially multiple wells
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Contingent testing and coring of the reservoir
FAN-1 Discovery Well
- Aimed at confirming reservoir model, commercial volumes and deliverability
Delivering value from discovery and development
Development
Chris Burnside
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015
34
Development From Discover to Develo ment y p
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Evaluation programme aims to confirm volumes, connectivity and productivity
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Preliminary foundation development concept for SNE
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Standalone FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offtake vessel) with expansion capability for satellite tie-backs
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Subsea production, gas injection and water injection wells
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Initial SNE plateau oil rate expected 50,000 - 100,000 bopd
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Threshold economic field size (gross)
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=200 mmbbls for foundation development project
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First oil anticipated in 2021-2023
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Evaluation Exploitation
Plan Plan FID First Oil
Detailed
Concept
Discovery Appraisal FEED Design and Production
Select
Fabrication
2014 2-4 yrs 3-5 yrs
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 35
Development Ke Reservoir Influences on Develo ment Desi n y p g
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Key Characteristics of SNE-1 Discovery
-
Good quality, saturated oil
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32° API with GOR ~750 scf/stb
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~100m oil column with textbook pressure profile
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Vertical pressure equilibrium
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Normally pressured (4,000 psi)
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Low relief structure with large areal extent
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Requires significant subsea infrastructure
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Reservoir connectivity unknown
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Focus of appraisal programme – interference testing
SNE-1 MDT Pressure Profile
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0.12 psi/ft
~100m
Oil
0.31 psi/ft Column
0.45 psi/ft
GAS
OIL
WATER
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- Vertical and horizontal connectivity influences development well count
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 36
Development Develo ment Conce t – Potential Foundation Pro ect p p j
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Concept will depend on a number of factors:
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Fluid type(s)
-
Scale of resources and location
-
Operating philosophy
-
Reservoir management plans
SNE base case exploitation scheme
-
FPSO with tanker export
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Multiple subsea drill centres as relatively shallow below mudline
-
30 production wells
Reservoir management
-
Near horizontal production wells to target multiple sands for deliverability
-
Seawater injection to improve sweep efficiency
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Associated gas injection into gas cap to maintain pressure
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Red seabed lines define contract area
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 37
Development Develo ment Conce t – Potential Evolution p p
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Potential Evolution Options
-
FPSO may handle several deepwater fields within 30-40 km radius
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Satellite discoveries may be efficiently tied-back to extend production plateau
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Sizeable deepwater discoveries may justify additional FPSOs
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Sangomar Offshore and Rufisque Offshore discoveries would probably be more costeffectively developed by shallow-water platforms
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 38
Development Front-End Loadin for Develo ment g p
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JV Development FEL studies commencing in 2015 in parallel with appraisal drilling
-
Early identification of production risks and opportunities to improve value
-
Flow-assurance screening
-
Wax, asphaltenes, hydrates, scaling, corrosion and souring risks
-
Reservoir modeling and process simulation
-
Optimise well design to increase recovery efficiency and recovery per well
-
Facilities development feasibility
-
Refine development options and commercial thresholds
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----- Start of picture text -----
Start appraisal drilling Commerciality Assessment Define Exploitation Areas
2015 2016 2017 2016 2018
Evaluation Programme DST Interference Reservoir Modeling and
submitted Q2 2015 Test? Engineering Studies
----- End of picture text -----
Delivering value from discovery and development
Operations
Paul Mayland
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 40
Operations Overview
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-
Objective is to drill the second phase of wells in Senegal safely, more efficiently and at lower cost than first phase
-
Deliver the planned well objectives and meet the data requirements
-
Build on lessons learnt from 2014 campaign: achieved >1 year without an LTI, onshore Dakar and no environmental spills
-
Service sector has cooled since 2013 / 2014: better positioned to support projects in 2015
-
Aim to deliver the 2015 / 2016 programme with Cairn / ConocoPhillips team, building on established, good JV relationship and draw on respective skills
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 41
Operations Ri Selection g
-
Numerous unsolicited offers / enquiries from drilling contractors / operators following recent dramatic fall in oil price : rates and terms significantly improved from 2013 / 2014
-
Strong preference for a unit already operating with established track record; an ability to work in water depths up to 1,500m and commence operations in Q4 2015
-
7[th] Generation, dual activity, Ocean Rig Athena identified as best solution and lowest cost over expected programme
-
Rig currently contracted to ConocoPhillips in Angola
-
Drilling services will be tendered to secure current market pricing
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 42
Operations JV Ca abilit p y
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Current JV brings many benefits and capabilities that can be applied to potential future development(s)
-
Commitment to HSSE and sustainable development
-
Cairn, as Operator, has worked on several projects historically in emerging provinces with limited access to oilfield infrastructure
-
Sangu, first and only offshore gas development in Bangladesh
-
Oil developments, onshore Rajasthan in India
-
Cairn negotiated oil and gas sales agreements with multiple purchasers for these projects
-
PETROSEN offer invaluable guidance on doing business in Senegal and a regional data perspective
-
ConocoPhillips has extensive depth of knowledge and expertise
-
Existing projects in Canada, Australia and Malaysia are on a scale that could be anticipated in Senegal
-
Global deepwater well engineering team engaged for 2015 / 2016 campaign to build early learning and knowledge
-
Hold a diverse international portfolio including producing assets providing life of field expertise
-
FAR has participated in Senegal for almost a decade
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 43
Operations Benchmark Project Timelines in West Africa
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||||
|---|---|---|
|Historical Development|
|Timelines in West Africa|
|Project|Country|Operator|
|Kuito|Angola|Chevron|
|Girassol|Angola|Total|
|Abo|Nigeria|Eni|
|Jasmin|Angola|Total|
|Xikomba|Angola|ExxonMobil|
|Kizomba A|Angola|ExxonMobil|
|Kizomba B|Angola|ExxonMobil|
|Bonga|Nigeria|Shell|
|Chinguetti|Mauritania|Woodside|
|Erha|Nigeria|ExxonMobil|
|BBLT|Angola|Chevron|
|Dalia / Camelia|Angola|Total|
|Greater Plutonio|Angola|BP|
|Kizomba C|Angola|ExxonMobil|
|Agbami|Nigeria|Chevron|
|Akpo|Nigeria|Total|
|Tombua Landana|Angola|Chevron|
|Oyo|Nigeria|Eni|
|Jubilee|Ghana|Tullow|
|Pazflor|Angola|Total|
|Usan|Nigeria|Total|
|Blk 31 PVSM|Angola|BP|
|CLOV|Angola|Total|
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Historical Development Timelines in West Africa
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Licence Discovery to First Award Oil
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
44
Operations Development / Cost Analogues; Gumusut-Kakap, Malaysia
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-
Gumusut field was discovered in Malaysia’s deepwater Block J in December 2003
-
Discovery well drilled in ~ 1,000m of water, 6 subsequent appraisal wells (including side tracks) followed
-
STOIIP ~ 1 bn bbls
-
Reservoir depth 2,800-3,200 m TVD, Reserves ~ 410 mmbbls of 38[o] API light oil
-
Production commenced in Nov 2012 using an interim evacuation solution to the Kikeh FPSO
-
Produced gas is re-injected into the gas-cap to improve oil recovery and help maintain reservoir pressure
-
Full field facilities (leased FPS) commissioned in 2013 / 2014 and peak production (> 100,000 bopd) expected 2015
-
Total wells ~ 20
-
Main development challenge – delay in construction of Sabah Oil and Gas terminal
| Gumusut- | Malaysia | |
| Kakap | ||
| Shell (Operator) ConocoPhillips |
33% 33% |
|
| Petronas | 20% | |
| Murphy | 14% |
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
45
Operations Development / Cost Analogues; Baobab, Ivory Coast
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-
Baobab field was discovered in Cote d’Ivoire Block CI-40 in March 2001
-
Discovery well was drilled in ~1,500m of water, limited appraisal followed (1-2 wells)
-
STOIIP ~ 1 bn bbls
-
Reservoir depth 2,800-3,000 m TVD, Reserves ~ 200 mmbbls of 23[o] API medium crude
-
Production commenced in 2005 / 2006 via a MODEC operated FPSO, peaked at ~ 60,000 bopd
-
FPSO capacity: oil 70,000 bopd, gas 75 mmscf/d, 2 mmbbls of storage
-
Total wells 17 – 8 production and 3 water injection in initial phase with 6 new wells planned for 2015
-
Development challenges – sand-face completions, water-flood efficiency
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----- Start of picture text -----
AFRICA
Ivory Coast
(Cote d’Ivoire)
Baobab
----- End of picture text -----
| Canadian Natural | 58% |
|---|---|
| Resources (Operator) | |
| Svenska Petroleum | 27% |
| Petroci | 15% |
Delivering value from discovery and development
Adding Value
Richard Heaton
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 47
Adding Value Future Exploration Programme
-
Confirmation of source rock and burial history from new data
-
Remapping key reservoir and source intervals
-
Redefining basin model
-
Redefining plays, creating new prospect and lead inventory
-
Acquisition of additional 3D seismic data
-
Drilling at least one firm exploration well
-
Confirming viability of additional plays
-
Currently 5 prospects and 18 leads
-
Full block potential of gross mean risked resource of > 1 bn bbls
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----- Start of picture text -----
RUFISQUE LEAD 1
FAN-1
Discovery
RUFISQUE LEAD 2
RUFISQUE LEAD 3
SPICA
LEAD
ACHERNAR LEAD
FAN FIELD SIRIUS
PROSPECT
ELECTRA LEAD
CENTRAL
BELLATRIX
FAN
PROSPECT
PROSPECT
SOUTH FAN
PROSPECT
SNE-1
SOLEIL
PROSPECT Discovery
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, 11 May 2015 48
Discovery and Appraisal Pro osed 3D Surve - Summar p y y
Leads Identified in Rufisque Offshore and Sangomar Offshore Blocks
-
Proposed survey ~2,000km[2]
-
Enable easterly closure mapping of Shelf Edge prospects and define prospects for future drilling
-
40-800m water depth, predominantly 50-600m
-
Multiple subsurface targets:
-
Shelfal low relief clastics; 1,500-2,800m depth
-
North and west dipping stratigraphic plays onlapping the Rufisque Dome; 1,200-4,000m depth
-
Fault bounded structural targets on the inverted Rufisque Dome; 800-3,000m depth
-
Overburden (seafloor to Albian) comprising predominantly clastics
-
Optional areas for consideration for design / cost implications, including 6km swath over SNE-1
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Proposed Survey Optional Swath Area Over SNE
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 49
Adding Value Ex loration Potential Tar ets p g
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To date, recognised eight different play types across all Senegal acreage
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Unconformity Subcrop
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Remnant Topography
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Karst and Fractured Limestone Play
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Fault Closures
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Canyon Fill
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Basin Floor Slope Fan Pinch-out
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Salt Related Traps
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Carbonate Margin Diagenetic or Facies Change
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
50
Adding Value Bellatrix Pros ect p
Prospect on immediate northern flank of SNE discovery
- Cenomanian through Albian prospective reservoirs
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----- Start of picture text -----
Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls)
P90 35 mean 157 P10 333
A
N S
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A’
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A’
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A
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Remnant Topography
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Capital Markets Day, May 2015
51
Adding Value Sirius Pros ect p
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Prospect located along trend to SNE-1
-
Albian-age prospective reservoirs
-
Similar association with seismic velocity push-down
| Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) | Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) | Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) | Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) | Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) | Cairn Current Gross resource range recoverable (mmbbls) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | 52 | mean | 177 | P10 | 343 |
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Unconformity Subcrop
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----- Start of picture text -----
N S
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A
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A’
A’ Delivering value from discovery and development
A
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 52
Adding Value Cairn Pros ects and Leads Inventor p y
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Currently 5 prospects and 18 leads
- Sum of gross mean risked prospect
resources
~380mmbbls
Sum of gross mean risked lead resources ~350mmbbls
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----- Start of picture text -----
Cairn Prospects and Leads - Probability of Commercial Success
80%
Bellatrix
LEADS
70% PROSPECTS Soleil
'Bubble' Size (Area) Is
Proportional To Gross Unrisked
60% Recoverable Resources
Sirius
50%
40%
Achernar/Betelgeuse
30%
Central Fan
Spica
20%
South Fan
10%
Rufisque Lead 1
0%
5 50 500
Gross Risked Prospective Resources (MMBOE)
Probability Of Geological Success
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 53
Adding Value Discoveries A raisal and Ex loration , pp p
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SNE-1 discovery:
-
Gross Contingent Resources 1C: 150mmbo 2C: 330mmbo 3C: 670mmbo
-
FAN-1 discovery:
-
Large in place volume (STOIIP P50: 950mmbbls)
-
Hub development will optimise value in blocks
-
Shelf exploration prospectivity:
-
Significantly de-risked by SNE discovery
-
3D seismic cover required for shelf prospects extending into Sangomar and Rufisque
-
Ongoing FAN-1 and SNE-1 well analysis and seismic reprocessing will contribute to:
-
Revising potential of SNE discovery
-
Characterise SNE and FAN reservoirs (including thin beds)
-
Updating exploration portfolio and ranking
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----- Start of picture text -----
30km radius
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Economics and Funding
James Smith
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
55
Economics and Funding Sene al Overview g
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-
SNE-1 2C contingent resource of 330mmbls, part of a broader potential of gross mean risked resource of > 1 bn bbls
-
Current economic analysis focuses on standalone SNE development: commercial threshold using various metrics >=200mmbbls
-
Commercial threshold for tie back prospects is significantly lower
-
Further resource potential as we acquire more 3D and assess the FAN basin potential
-
Initial three well programme focuses on proving up commerciality of SNE-1 and the shelf edge play
-
Follow on wells will be planned later in the year and ultimately will be determined by results of initial wells
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 56
Economics and Funding Notional Develo ment Scenario p
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For 330mmbbls Standalone SNE Field
Development expenditure:
-
Dependent on concept solution and scale of resources
-
Preliminary estimates US$17-26/bbl , in line with analogue developments
Operating expenditure:
-
Dependent on development concept and operating philosophy
-
Preliminary estimates US$5-15/bbl
-
PSC cost recovery mechanism
Development timing:
- FID to first oil likely to be in 3-5 years
PSC Fiscal regime:
-
Appropriate frontier basin terms
-
Typical cost recovery mechanism
-
Profit sharing based on production thresholds
-
Corporate tax set within the PSC
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----- Start of picture text -----
2,000 120,000
1,800
100,000
1,600
1,400
80,000
1,200
1,000 60,000
800
40,000
600
400
20,000
200
0 0
Production Appraisal & Pre-FEED Co sts
Capital Costs Operating Costs
Oil Production bop/d
Annual Spend US$mm (2015 terms)
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Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 57
Economics and Funding Economic Scenarios
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For 330 mmbbls Standalone SNE Field
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----- Start of picture text -----
18 40%
16
10% return breakeven,
35%
oil price: <US$40/bbl
14
12 30%
10
25%
8
6 20%
4
15%
2
0 10%
@ US$90 / bbl @ US$70 / bbl @ US$50 / bbl @ US$90 / bbl @ US$70 / bbl @ US$50 / bbl
@ $90/bblAssuming Assuming 10%@ $70/bbl Assuming 20%@ $50/bbl @ $90/bblAssuming Assuming 10%@ $70/bbl @ $50/bblAssuming 20%
2014 Costs Cost Reduction Cost Reduction 2014 Costs Cost Reduction Cost Reduction
Cairn IRR at FID
Cairn NPV / bbl at FID, US$ / bbl
Cairn IRR at FID, $/bbl
Cairn NPV/bbl at FID, $/bbl
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- Assuming sustained industry costs 20% below 2014 levels
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
58
Economics and Funding Economics Set in Context
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Project Breakeven Price Benchmarking
Indicative 330mmbbls SNE-1 development
Benchmarked against Goldman Sachs top 400 global projects analysis, filtered for oil projects coming onstream post 2016
Source: Goldman Sachs, Cairn
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 59
Economics and Funding Fundin to End 2017 g
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----- Start of picture text -----
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Cash RBL drawdowns Catcher devex Kraken devex Commited E&A Further three Operational
for devex (incl Senegal firm wells in Senegal cashflow at
programme) forward curve
US$m
----- End of picture text -----
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
60
Economics and Funding Cairn Financial Strate gy
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-
Delivering value from discovery and development within a balanced portfolio
-
Greatest value potential from exploration and appraisal in Senegal, but sustained by strong balance sheet and North Sea developments coming onstream
-
Strong cashflows from 2017 / 2018 when Senegal development sanction likely to be under contemplation
-
Proven track record of actively managing the portfolio to maintain appropriate balance and deploy capital for optimal risk-weighted returns
-
Proven track record of monetising (or part monetising) assets at optimum point in value chain
-
Focus on proving up SNE-1 and demonstrating extent of Senegal resource base
Delivering value from discovery and development
Conclusion
Simon Thomson
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015
62
Conclusion Sene al Summar and Vision g y
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Foundation for long term multi-field, multi-phase Exploitation Plan to maximise value:
- Achieve Commerciality
Phasing Investments:
-
3-6 further (tested) wells by H2 2016
-
Additional 3D seismic in 2015
-
Planning for further wells by end 2017 (Exploitation Phase)
-
Subsurface, facility and environmental pre-development studies
-
Operating:
-
Safe, cost effective, reputable operations
-
ConocoPhillips has the option to become Operator in development phase
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 63
Conclusion
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----- Start of picture text -----
Creating growth
through exploration
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Future cash flow
from fully funded
developments
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----- Start of picture text -----
Financial flexibility
and disciplined
allocation of capital
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-
Focus on potentially world class asset in Senegal
-
2015 fully funded Appraisal and Exploration programme
-
Future material exploration in emerging and mature basins
-
Kraken and Catcher on track for 2017 production
-
Deliver strong returns and underpin a sustainable strategy
-
Management of balanced portfolio; appropriate equity interests and funding availability
-
Ensure all investments focus on value not scale
-
Core skills retained in slimmer organisation
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 64
Presenters
Simon Thomson Chief Executive
Simon Thomson joined Cairn in 1995 as a lawyer. He was appointed as Chief Executive in July 2011 having been Legal and Commercial Director since 2006 and holding various posts across the organisation including head of assets.
He holds a LLB Honours from Aberdeen University and a Diploma in Legal Practice from Glasgow University. Simon is also a Non-Executive Director of Graham’s The Family Dairy Limited.
Simon is responsible for internal audit and HSE. He is a member of the Nomination Committee and attends the Remuneration Committee by invitation.
James Smith Chief Financial Officer
James is the Finance Director at Cairn Energy with responsibility for Finance, Company Secretarial and Corporate Affairs and is a member of the Executive Team.
James joined Cairn in March 2014 from Rothschild where he was a Director of the Energy & Power team advising E&P companies, oil majors and national oil companies on their M&A transactions and equity and debt market financing. During his 14 year investment banking career, James was a long standing adviser to Cairn and worked on every major transaction and financing from the IPO of Cairn India until he joined the company. Prior to joining Rothschild, James was a member of the Oil & Gas team at Merrill Lynch and prior to that at Harrison Lovegrove (now part of Standard Chartered Bank). James holds a BA (Hons) from the University of Oxford.
Richard Heaton Director of Exploration
After graduating from Leeds and Durham universities in the UK, Richard began his career as a geologist in 1981 with the British National Oil Corporation (BNOC), then Britoil and BP, working in various international and domestic exploration roles before joining Cairn Energy in 1994.
Following Cairn’s Sangu discovery in Bangladesh, he became General Manager in Bangladesh in 1996, overseeing the Sangu field development before handing over Operatorship to Shell in 1999.
He was Deputy General Manager in India from 2000-2002 during which time Cairn made the Lakshmi and Gauri discoveries in Gujarat, the Saraswati discovery in Rajasthan and Cairn opened up the deepwater Krishna-Godavari Basin with a number of oil and gas discoveries.
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From 2002 – 2006, as Head of Exploration, he was involved in the Mangala, Bhagyam, Aishwariya and other discoveries in Rajasthan. In 2006, he became Director Exploration for Cairn India and following the IPO of the Cairn India business returned to the UK in 2007 as Technical Director for Capricorn. Most recently as Exploration Director he has been involved in building an acreage portfolio in the North Atlantic, North Sea and the Mediterranean.
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 65
Presenters
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Paul Mayland Chief Operating Officer
Paul holds a B.Eng (1[st] Class) Engineering and M.Eng in Petroleum Engineering and is a Member of the Energy Institute and Society of Petroleum Engineers. He spent six years with British Gas as a petroleum engineer working in the North Sea and North Africa. He joined Cairn in 1996 working initially on the acquisition of Command Petroleum, which positioned Cairn in India.
Paul remained with Cairn until mid 2006 in a number of roles, latterly as Group Subsurface Manager and earlier as a Senior Petroleum Engineer. It was during this period that Cairn’s focus was largely in India and Bangladesh and Paul was involved in the drilling, testing and commerciality of several fields in Rajasthan, India as well as the development of the Sangu gas field in Bangladesh.
From September 2006, Paul worked in Calgary, Canada as Petroleum Engineering Manager for BG Canada before joining Vermillion Energy Trust as a Senior Advisor in Corporate Business Development from 2008 – 2010 where he was involved in a number of asset and corporate transactions.
Paul rejoined Cairn Energy PLC in August 2010 as Director of Business Development and Planning and played a key part in re-shaping Cairn’s portfolio during 2011/2012. Paul was appointed COO effective 1[st] January 2013.
Rob JE Jones Regional Director - Africa
Rob is a Regional Director of Africa at Cairn Energy with whom he has worked for 16 years. He was formerly Business Development Director in India and Managing Director in Bangladesh.
Rob has a Masters Degree from Kingston University and has been in the oil and gas industry since graduating and has worked in Egypt, Norway, the US and Vietnam
Chris Burnside Exploitation Manager, Senegal
Chris Burnside joined Cairn in June 2013. He has 25 years experience in the oil and gas industry and has held various technical leadership roles within exploration and new field developments in the North Sea, West Africa, Australia and Eastern Europe over the last 15 years.
Chris has a MBA from Aberdeen University and MEng in Petroleum Engineering from Heriot-Watt University.
His Petroleum Engineering experience is very broad and includes offshore heavy-oil, light-oil, condensate, high-rate gas and onshore shale gas reservoirs plus working offshore as both a drilling representative and completions engineer.
Martin Dashwood Exploration Manager, Senegal
Martin joined Cairn Energy plc in August 2013. A highly experienced Petroleum Geologist with over 30 years spent living and working in a wide range of countries including in South America (Ecuador, Colombia), 7 years in The Netherlands, and 13 years in Canada on a wide range of International and new ventures projects.
Martin has previously worked for Antrim Energy Inc, EnCana, Clyde Petroleum and Mobil Oil. He has held a range of technical and leadership positions with responsibilities ranging from Exploration Prospecting to “small field developments”.
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He has extensive experience in Exploration and Field Appraisal management.
He holds a BSC and an MSC in Geology , is a Fellow of the Geol. Soc. of London and a long time member of both PESGB and AAPG.
Delivering value from discovery and development
Capital Markets Day, May 2015 66
Contacts
David Nisbet
Group Corporate Affairs
- E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)7711 146 068
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Kate Trevenen
Investor Relations Co-ordinator
- E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)131 475 3094
www.cairnenergy.com
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Follow us on Twitter
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Download our IR iPad App
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View our YouTube Channel
Delivering value from discovery and development