Skip to main content

AI assistant

Sign in to chat with this filing

The assistant answers questions, extracts KPIs, and summarises risk factors directly from the filing text.

ERG Investor Presentation 2025

Mar 14, 2025

4235_ip_2025-03-14_d71b713f-3b5f-4df1-9d71-3cfbef462163.pdf

Investor Presentation

Open in viewer

Opens in your device viewer

FY 2024 RESULTS & STRATEGY UPDATE

12 March 2025

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

AGENDA

  • FY 2024 Highlights and Delivery on our Strategy Paolo Merli, CEO
  • 2024-2026 Strategy Update Paolo Merli, CEO
  • Financials & Capital Structure Michele Pedemonte, CFO
  • FY & 4Q 2024 Results Review Michele Pedemonte, CFO
  • 2025 Guidance & Conclusions Paolo Merli, CEO
  • Appendix

FY 2024 HIGHLIGHTS AND DELIVERY ON OUR STRATEGY

Paolo Merli - CEO

2024 KEY FIGURES(1)

Solid results despite the volatile environment

(1) Adjusted figures on continuing operations (excluding CCGT for FY 2023) (2) It refers to figures net of clawback measures (including IFRS 16 effect)

(3) Net Profit post-Minorities, and net of clawback measures

(4) It does not include IFRS 16 liability, respectively for €172mn as at 31.12.23, and €229mn as at 31.12.24

DELIVERING ON OUR STRATEGY

Solid Execution
+579MW: Repowering
& Greenfield in Italy and France, M&A in France and entry in the US
Route-to-market
5
long-term
PPAs
signed
with
leading
corporates
and
utilities
for
ca.
500GWh/year
of
RES
energy
Strategy
Sustainable
Issued ERG's fourth
€500mn Green Bond, EIB financing €243mn for renewable energy development
Finance
ESG
Consolidated Top Performance position in main ESG Ratings and included in S&P Yearbook 2025
Shareholders
Dividend + Share Buyback for a total purchase of 1.1mn own shares(1)
€1/sh
Remuneration

SOLID TRACK-RECORD IN DELIVERING ON OUR STRATEGY

Keep delivering on our growth strategy with a mix of internal projects and M&A

PIONEER IN REPOWERING: FIRST 270MW FULLY IN OPERATION

ERG's first tranche of repowering proved strongly value accretive 8

PRO-ACTIVE ROUTE TO MARKET APPROACH

ERG well positioned to capture growing energy needs from emerging datacenters

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK EVOLUTION IN OUR CORE GEOGRAPHIES

Country RES Auctions: type & duration Storage: support mechanisms
and planning
FER X 2 ways CFD 20 years Capacity mkt 2026-28
MACSE exp in 2025
(delivery 2028)
2 ways CFD 20 years Capacity mkt
Expected as of 2026
1 way CFD 20 years Capacity mkt
Expected in 2028
2 ways CFD 15 years Capacity mkt 2026-28
2 ways CFD 12 years Capacity
mkt
Expected
in 2025

FERX first auction expected in 2025 New opportunities in BESS to be exploited

ERG AS OF TODAY: A SOLID AND INTERNATIONAL PLATFORM

2024-2026 STRATEGY UPDATE

Paolo Merli - CEO

VALUE OVER VOLUME APPROACH REINFORCED

Storage, Hybridization & Digitalization

Selective growth 4.2GW installed capacity in 2026 (vs 4.5GW); focus on repowering & organic

Investments/EBITDA CAPEX: €1.0bn 2024-2026 (-20% vs prev. €1.2bn); EBITDA >€600mn @2026

Route to market Confirmed target 85%-90% quasi-regulated on total EBITDA through CFD & PPA

Balance Sheet / Value Creation Commitment to IG rating: DCM as best option for sizable/competitive funding Value over Volume approach confirmed (IRR targeted 200bps+ over WACC)

Geographical Diversification Geographic focus on tier-1 countries: grow and consolidate Assessing asset rotation opportunities in tier-2 countries

Storage as a new stream of development Hybridization as an opportunistic technology to mainly protect our assets Digitalization to optimize the performance of assets

ESG A strategic priority: consolidating ERG's tier-1 positioning

Shareholder Remuneration 2025: €1/sh to be paid as dividend plus SBB (already done) equal to €0.15/sh 2026+: floor at €1/sh as dividend + potential upside from buybacks

CAPEX & PIPELINE UPDATED

~0.4

2024

Size of pipeline maintained, reducing solar exposure & more focus on flexibility

RELYING ON A FULLY SECURED GROWTH IN THE SHORT TERM

~130MW(1) under construction, route to MKT secured ~500MW(2) fully authorized, waiting for auctions and FERX

Adding visibility to our growth prospects in IT, FR, UK and DE. First move in Storage

(1) Tot. MW under construction: on absolute terms = 134MW, on a differential basis = 120MW (2) Tot. MW fully authorized: on absolute terms = 495MW, on a differential basis = 314MW, including also Nulvi Ploaghe

REPOWERING: ITALIAN CASE

  • More than 45% of the current Italian wind fleet can be repowered: ~6GW out of 13GW
  • Repowering is key to achieving the 2030 NECP target for onshore wind: 26GW
  • Through repowering, potential increase of installed wind capacity by +7.5GW, i.e. ~58% of the required addition to achieve the PNIEC target

REPOWERING AS A STRATEGIC PILLAR IN ITALY AND ABROAD

A more sizeable pipeline in Repowering to be activated opportunistically

BESS - BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM

BESS as a new stream of growth to add flexibility in RES portfolio

ESG: A STRATEGIC PRIORITY

Net Zero target by 2040 to continue decarbonization path Circular Economy: minimizing waste in wind repowering Natural Capital Preservation in our organic RES developments

- Sharing Value with Local Communities ERG Academy to engage next generation in energy transition

  • Safety first is a priority in all our actions DEI&B(1) well defined goals to foster engagement & empowerment

Enhancing governance model by promoting ethical and responsible business conduct Engaging the supply chain in decarbonization, D&I, and protecting Human Rights

FINANCIALS & CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

640MW OUT OF INCENTIVES IN THE BP PERIOD

PPA as route to market to stabilize revenues after the end of incentives 21

A SOLID FINANCIAL STRUCTURE

A strong and efficient balance sheet with a well-spread repayment schedule

(1) Maturities excluding Broken Cross Project Financing into Group debt since closing of the acquisition in January 2025

INVESTMENT GRADE RATING ALWAYS A PILLAR OF ERG GROWTH PLAN

Strong Commitment to IG rating

(1) Excluding IFRS 16 liability

(2) Based on ERG's estimates

COST OF ERG SUSTAINABLE DEBT REMAINS MODERATE

ERG has the lowest cost of debt and the highest dividend yield vs pure players

(1) Internal estimation based on latest publicly available data (ENEL, Orsted, A2A, Iren, Acciona Energia)

(2) Data referred to 2023-2024 (Voltalia, Neoen, Encavis, Solaria, Terna Energy, Grenergy, Boralex, Orsted, Acciona Energia, EDPR)

FY & 4Q 2024 RESULTS REVIEW

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

WIND DROUGHT SINCE OCTOBER CONTINUING IN JAN-FEB 2025

(1) Source: UL Wind Index. Wind anomalies are calculated as a percent deviation from the 1995-2019 mean wind speed at 100m above ground level

(2) Graph based on data from Terna's Monthly Reports on the Electricity System

(3) DunkelFlaute: periods with combined wind and solar PV generation very low

4Q 2024 EBITDA & PRODUCTION

Exceptional wind drought across EU only partially offset by larger installed capacity

INVESTMENTS 489 53 553 112 2023 2024 4Q 2023 4Q 2024 M&A: 319(2) M&A: 184(1) Italy France Spain UK Sweden Corporate US Germany

  • (1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing in Spain of two Solar acquisitions: Garnacha (for about €152mn, closing on June 23, 2023), and Fregenal (for an amount of €32mn, closing on June 30, 2023)
  • (2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of two Wind & Solar acquisitions in France (for about €84mn, closing on January 29, 2024) and in US (for an amount of €235mn, closing on April 24, 2024)

ADJUSTED P&L

2024 2023 Euro millions 4Q 2024 4Q 2023
535 534 Adjusted EBITDA 145 159
(263) (223) Amortization
and
depreciation
(70) (56)
271 312 Adjusted EBIT 75 103
(27) (14) Net
financial
income
(expenses)
(9) (2)
244 298 Adjusted Results before taxes 66 101
(66) (71) Income
taxes
(20) (24)
178 227 Adjusted Results on continued operations 46 77
(3) (2) Minority
interests
(1) 0
175 226 Adjusted Net Profit 45 77
0 (7) (1)
Adjusted
Results
on discontinued
operations
0 (1)
175 219 Adjusted Results for the period 45 75
27% 24% Tax Rate 31% 24%

Note: Figures include IFRS 16 effect (1) FY e 4Q 2023 figures refer to CCGT Results

2024 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(1) They do not include IFRS 16 liability, respectively for €172mn as at 31.12.23, and €229mn as at 31.12.24

(2) EBITDA includes IFRS 16 effect for €17mn

(3) It includes, among Others, reversal of no-cash items (PTC USA)

(4) They include €5.6mn of dividends to Minorities

2025 GUIDANCE & CONCLUSIONS

Paolo Merli - CEO

2025 GUIDANCE

BECOMING MORE SELECTIVE IN A COMPLEX SCENARIO

❑ Value over Volume approach reinforced ❑ 2024–2026 CAPEX cut by 20% (-30% on 2025-26), driven by delays of FERX and a cautious stance on US

❑ EBITDA >€600mn ❑ PPA and CfD as the main tools to 85%-90% quasi-regulated >€600mn

❑ In the BP period room for re-leverage and accelerate growth ❑ Commitment to maintaining an IG rating ❑ Competitive cost of financing

❑ Superior annual shareholder remuneration with a floor at €1/sh as cash dividend and flexibility to allocate extra-cash Peers' avg. on buyback, based on yearly performance and perspectives

APPENDIX

PRO-ACTIVE ROUTE TO MARKET APPROACH THROUGH VOLATILE YEARS

Country & Asset Type Plants & Capacity Price Structure Tenor / Start Date Counterparty Volume
Greenfield Evishagaran
/ Craiggore
tot. 70MW
Fixed Price 6 years
Jan '22
~240GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Asset Based
FiP
expired
Bois Bigot, Bois de l'Arche/Theta
PTF
72MW
Fixed Price 5 years
Sept –
Dec '21
~150GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Greenfield Mulligan
70MW
Fixed Price 12 years
Jan '23
~Avg. 133GWh/Y
Fixed Shape
Greenfield Great Pathfinder
224MW
Fixed Price 12 years
Apr '23
~831GWh/Y
Pay as produced
Greenfield Sandy Knowe
/
Creag Riabhach
tot. 179MW
Fixed Price 10 years
Jan '23
~400GWh/Y
Baseload
Greenfield Garnacha
149MW
Discount to Mkt
with Floor
12 years from COD
(Apr '24)
~190GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Repowering Partinico-Monreale
42MW
Fixed Price 12 years
Jan '23
~70GWh/Y
Baseload
Greenfield Chaume
Solar
29MW
Fixed Price 15 years
Jan '25
~35GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Asset Based
FiP
expired
Wind Portafolio
48MW equiv. + 53MW
Collar Structure 9 years
Jan '23
~420GWh/Y Baseload +
~120GWh/Y Pay as Produced
Repowering Camporeale + Mineo-Militello-
Vizzini
tot. 150MW
Fixed Price 15 years
Jan '24
~250GWh/Y
Baseload
Greenfield Roccapalumba
47MW
Fixed Price 20 years from COD
(Jun '24)
~100GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Asset Based Rotello
42MW
Fixed Price 5 years
Jan '25
~100GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Asset Based Wind Portfolio
5MW equiv.
Fixed Price 5 years
Jan '25
~44GWh/Y
Baseload
Asset Based San Cireo
30MW
Fixed Price 5 years
Jan '25
~64GWh/Y
Pay as Produced
Greenfield Corlacky
47MW
Fixed Price 15 years from COD
(exp. 4Q '25)
~180GWh/Y
Pay as Produced

TOT: ~3.3TWh/Y(1) 35

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

(2) UK prices net of balancing revenues

A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2024 RESULTS: PRODUCTION

2024 2023 Δ Energy Production (GWh): 4Q 2024 4Q 2023 Δ
2,720 2,784 (64) Italy 708 851 (143)
1,210 1,315 (104) France 322 435 (113)
568 629 (62) Germany 153 217 (64)
710 742 (32) East Europe 194 236 (41)
588 455 133 UK & Nordics 168 129 3
8
479 213 266 Spain 6
3
5
7
6
684 0 684 U
S
240 0 240
6,959
1,357
932
6,139 820
1,357
932
Total Energy Production
of which, Contribution of new assets:

Wind
1,848
403
361
1,925 (77)
403
361
425 425
Solar
42 42

A SNAPSHOT FY AND 4Q 2024 RESULTS: EBITDA

2024 2023 Δ Adjusted EBITDA (€ mn): 4Q 2024 4Q 2023 Δ
339 299 4
0
Italy 8
7
8
2
5
5
1
8
1
(30) France 1
6
3
0
(14)
3
4
6
8
(34) Germany 1
0
2
1
(11)
5
4
4
9
5 East Europe 1
6
1
2
4
3
0
3
8
(8) UK & Nordics 8 1
7
(9)
1
5
2
0
(6) Spain 2 3 (0)
3
2
0 3
2
U
S
1
2
0 1
2
(21) (21) (0) Corporate (6) (5) (1)
535 534 1 (1)
Total Adjusted EBITDA
145 159 (14)
73 73 of which, Perimeter effect: 26 26
60 60 Wind
24 24
13 13 Solar
2 2