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ERG — Investor Presentation 2024
Mar 13, 2024
4235_ip_2024-03-13_944a5f31-5803-4a05-9f23-ec9d5c724cb8.pdf
Investor Presentation
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4Q AND FY 2023 RESULTS
Paolo Merli - CEO
DISCLAIMER
This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.
AGENDA
❑ 2023: Execution and Completion of Energy Transition
- Key Figures
- Recent Developments
❑ Results Review
- Business Environment
- FY 2023 Production & EBITDA
- Investments
❑ Key Financials
- Profit & Loss
- Cash Flow Statement
- ❑ 2024 Guidance and Conclusions
2023: EXECUTION AND COMPLETION OF ENERGY TRANSITION
Paolo Merli - CEO
A STRONG SET OF RESULTS IN 2023
5 Strong results driven by larger installed capacity coupled with an efficient financial structure
COMPLETION OF OUR ENERGY TRANSITION
(1) Figures as of today do not include CCGT, which is accounted in FY 2023 under IFRS5 amongst the assets under disposal
ACHIEVEMENTS IN 2023/EARLY 2024
ENTERING THE US WIND & SOLAR MARKET
Transaction Overview Rationale
- Agreement with Apex Clean Energy Holdings for a strategic partnership (75% ERG's stake) to manage an operating Wind & Solar portfolio (for a total of 317MW)
- Apex will continue the operational management of the assets
- Cooperation agreement for additional 1GW solar and onshore wind projects under development
- Closing expected within 1H 2024
Location (within the MISO)
- First investment in the US renewable market boosting ERG's geographical diversification
- US to become one of the largest ERG's market abroad
- Plants located in highly attractive wind / solar resource zones
- Equipment provided by best-in-class O&Ms / EPCs
- Stable revenues ensured through long-term power purchase agreements
- Assets benefitting from tax equity investments with marketleading counterparts
- Stable investment return in a favorable regulatory environment
| Wind & Solar Plants Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Capacity: | 317 MW (224MW Wind + 92MW Solar) | |||||
| Energy Production: | ~1TWh (~ 35% average load factor) | |||||
| Enterprise Value: | \$270mn | |||||
| COD/commissioning: | Feb. 2023 (Wind), July 2022 (Solar) | |||||
| Route to Market: | 12-year Corporate PPA for each plant with primary off-takers |
SIGNIFICANT EXECUTION FROM 2020 TO FY 2023
Keep delivering on our growth strategy with a mix of internal projects and M&A
(2) Fregenal (25MW) + Garnacha (149MW)
(1) Partinico-Monreale + Camporeale: gross capacity post-repowering = 42MW + 50MW
A PLATFORM OF PPA WITH TIER 1 OFF-TAKERS TO STABILIZE REVENUES
| Country & size |
Plants & Capacity | Price structure | Tenor/ start date |
Counterparty | Volume | Signing Date |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Based FiP expired |
110MW equiv. + Avigliano/Lacedonia 53MW |
Collar Structure | 10 years Jan '22 |
~220GWh/Y Baseload +~120GWh/Y Pay as Produced |
May '21 | ||
| Asset Based FiT expired |
Bois Bigot, Bois de l'Arche/Theta PTF 72MW |
Fixed Price | 5 years Sept – Dec '21 |
~150GWh/Y Pay as Produced |
Oct '21 | ||
| Greenfield | Evishagaran/ Craiggore tot. 70MW |
Fixed Price | 5 years Jan '22 |
250GWh/Y Pay as Produced |
Jul '21 | ||
| Greenfield | Sandy Knowe/Creag Riabhach tot. 179W |
Fixed Price | 10 years Jan '23 |
400GWh/Y Baseload |
Mar '22 | ||
| Greenfield | Garnacha 149MW |
Discount to Mkt with Floor |
12 years From COD (exp. Apr '24) |
~190GWh/Y Pay as Produced |
Aug '22 | ||
| Repowering | Partinico-Monreale 42MW |
Fixed Price | 12 years Jan '23 |
~70GWh/Y Baseload |
Mar '23 | ||
| Greenfield | Chaume Solar 29MW |
Fixed Price |
15 years Jan '25 |
~35GWh/Y Pay as Produced |
Apr '23 | ||
| Asset Based FiP expired |
Wind Portafolio 100MW equiv. |
Collar Structure | 10 years Jan '23 |
~200GWh/Y Baseload |
May '23 | ||
| Repowering | Camporeale + Mineo-Militello Vizzini, tot. 150MW |
Fixed Price | 15 years Jan '24 |
~260GWh/Y Baseload |
Nov '23 | ||
| Roccapalumba Greenfield Fixed Price 47MW |
20 years From COD (exp. Apr '24) |
~100GWh/Y Pay as Produced |
Feb '24 | ||||
| TOT: ca. 2.0TWh/Y |
A SOLID FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
Repayment Schedule based on stock as of December 2023 (€ bn)
A strong and efficient balance sheet to support growth and a sustainable dividend policy
RESULTS REVIEW
Michele Pedemonte - CFO
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
(2) UK prices net of balancing revenues
A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2023 RESULTS: PRODUCTION
| 2023 | 2022 | Δ | Energy Production (GWh): | 4Q 2023 | 4Q 2022 | Δ | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,784 | 2,312 | 472 | Italy: | 851 | 567 | 284 | |||
| 2 528 , |
2 062 , |
466 | • Wind |
812 | 529 | 283 | 55% | 53% | |
| 256 | 250 | 7 | • Solar |
39 | 38 | 1 | 6,139 | 4,956 | |
| 1,315 | 1,076 | 239 | France: | 435 | 343 | 9 2 |
GWh | GWh | |
| 219 1 , |
982 | 237 | • Wind |
422 | 331 | 90 | 45% | ||
| 96 | 94 | 1 | • Solar |
14 | 11 | 2 | |||
| 629 | 556 | 7 3 |
Germany - Wind: | 217 | 153 | 6 4 |
Italy Europe |
||
| 742 | 615 | 128 | East Europe - Wind: | 236 | 160 | 7 5 |
4Q 2023 | 4Q 2022 | |
| 455 | 226 | 229 | UK & Nordics - Wind: | 129 | 8 1 |
4 8 |
|||
| 213 | 171 | 4 2 |
Spain - Solar: | 5 7 |
2 6 |
3 1 |
56% | 57% | |
| 6,139 | 4,956 | 1,183 | Total Energy Production | 1,925 | 1,331 | 594 | 1,925 | 1,331 | |
| 638 | 638 | of which, Perimeter effect: | 110 | 110 | GWh | GWh | |||
| 579 | 579 | • Wind |
82 | 82 | 44% | ||||
| 59 | 59 | • Solar |
27 | 27 |
A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2023 RESULTS: EBITDA
| 2023 | 2022 | Δ | Adjusted EBITDA (€ mn): | 4Q 2023 | 4Q 2022 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 294 | 288 | 7 | Italy: | 8 1 |
5 4 |
2 7 |
| 216 | 218 | (2) | • Wind |
70 | 46 | 24 |
| 79 | 70 | 9 | • Solar |
11 | 8 | 2 |
| 7 8 |
5 5 |
2 3 |
France: | 3 0 |
1 8 |
1 1 |
| 73 | 50 | 23 | • Wind |
30 | 18 | 11 |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | • Solar |
0 | (0) | 0 |
| 6 5 |
7 0 |
(5) | Germany - Wind: | 2 0 |
2 7 |
(6) |
| 4 8 |
7 2 |
(24) | East Europe - Wind: | 1 1 |
1 2 |
(1) |
| 3 7 |
2 4 |
1 3 |
UK & Nordics - Wind: | 1 6 |
6 | 1 0 |
| 2 0 |
1 8 |
2 | Spain - Solar: | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| (22) | (25) | 3 | Corporate: | (5) | (8) | 2 |
| 520 | 502 | 1 9 |
Total Adjusted EBITDA | (1) 155 |
112 | 4 4 |
| 68 | 68 | of which, Perimeter effect: | 17 | 17 | ||
| 62 | 62 | Wind • |
16 | 16 | ||
| 6 | 6 | Solar • |
0 | 0 |
(1) M&A CAPEX related to related to Valentia Solar acquisition in Spain (€100mn), plus Siena Solar acquisition (€115mn) and Donatello Wind acquisition (€396mn), both of them in Italy, and Corlacky Wind acquisition in UK (€27mn)
(2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing in Spain of two Solar acquisitions: Garnacha (on June 23, 2023, for about €152mn), and Fregenal (on June 30, 2023 for an amount of €31mn)
(3) M&A CAPEX mailny related to Corlacky Wind acquisition in UK (€27mn)
KEY FINANCIALS
ADJUSTED P&L
| 2023 | 2022 | Euro millions | 4Q 2023 | 4Q 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 520 | 502 | (1) Adjusted EBITDA |
155 | 112 |
| (215) | (229) | Amortization and depreciation |
(54) | (63) |
| 305 | 273 | Adjusted EBIT | 101 | 49 |
| (6) | (25) | Net financial income (expenses) |
(0) | (7) |
| (0) | 0 | Net income (loss) from equity investments |
(0) | 0 |
| 299 | 248 | Adjusted Results before taxes | 101 | 42 |
| (71) | (115) | Income taxes |
(24) | (29) |
| 228 | 133 | (2) Adjusted Results on continued operations |
77 | 13 |
| (2) | (4) | Minority interests |
0 | 0 |
| 226 | 129 | Adjusted Net Profit | 77 | 14 |
| (7) | 16 | (3) Adjusted Results on discontinued operations |
(1) | (1) |
| 219 | 145 | Adjusted Results for the period | 76 | 13 |
| 24% | 46% | Tax Rate | 24% | 69% |
Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures
(1) EBITDA net of clawback measures.
(2) Net Profit net of clawback measures.
(3) Figures refer to CCGT Results
EXTRAORDINARY CLAWBACK AND WINDFALL TAXES EFFECTS
| 2023 | 2022 | At EBITDA level (€ mn): | 4Q 2023 4Q 2022 |
2023 | 2022 | (1) At NET PROFIT level (€ mn): |
4Q 2023 | 4Q 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532 | 537 | EBITDA gross of clawback measures | 158 | 126 | 235 | 212 | Net Profit gross of clawback measures/Windfall taxes | 7 9 |
4 3 |
| 1 2 |
3 5 |
(-) Clawback measures: | 3 | 1 5 |
9 | 8 3 |
(-) Clawback measures/Windfall taxes: | 2 | 3 0 |
| 0 | 7 | Italy | - | 2 | 0 | 61 | Italy | - | 20 |
| 6 | 7 | France | 2 | 7 | 4 | 5 | France | 2 | 5 |
| - | 2 | Germany | - | 2 | - | 2 | Germany | - | 2 |
| 0 | Spain | 0 | 0 | Spain | 0 | ||||
| 6 | 19 | (2) East Europe |
0 | 4 | 5 | 16 | (2) East Europe |
0 | 3 |
| 520 | 502 | EBITDA net of clawback measures | 155 | 112 | 226 | 129 | Net Profit net of clawback measures/Windfall taxes | 7 7 |
1 4 |
(2) In Romania clawbacks measures internalized in price mechanisms as of 2023
2023 CASH FLOW STATEMENT
(1) Figures from continuing operations
- (2) Figure net of clawback measures for €12mn
- (3) Out of which €5mn to Minorities
- (4) It includes prepayment fee for €5mn related to one-off fee related to liability management
- (5) It includes mainly +€28mn fair value IRS, and -€11mn others
- (6) It refers to CCGT disposal whose EV was €191mn
2024 GUIDANCE
Paolo Merli - CEO
EXTREME VOLATILITY IN NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY PRICES
Revenues stabilized thanks to PPA, hedging and CFDs
(1) Of which ca. 1.1TWh under GRIN scheme in Italy, with a reversal correlation with previous year power prices (2) Of which ca. 0.9TWh CFD 1 way
ASSETS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Adding visibility to our growth prospects in IT, FR, UK and DE. First move in storage
(1) Tot MW under construction: on absolute terms = 359MW, on a differential basis = 257MW
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT GROWTH EXPECTED IN 2024
A visible and international mix of internal projects and M&A
(1) Of which 29MW Solar in final phase of construction
(2) Wind: Mineo-Militello-Vizzini + Salemi-Castelvetrano + Reinsdorf: gross capacity post-repowering = 101MW + 76MW + 6MW. Solar: Siena gross capacity post-repowering= 29MW
(3) Bourgogne 1 (32MW) + Limousine 1 (9MW)
2024 GUIDANCE
(1) Net of clawback measures in 2023 for €12mn
(2) EBITDA guidance net of clawbacks. It includes IFRS16 for €15mn and US consolidation assumed as of 2H 2024
(3) It does not include IFRS16 liability, amounting respectively to €172mn (actual FY 2023) and €210mn (2024 guidance) 25