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ERG Investor Presentation 2023

Mar 15, 2023

4235_ip_2023-03-15_d0a11375-b000-485c-bb19-bafeba3e85e3.pdf

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2022 RESULTS AND STRATEGY UPDATE IR DAY

15 March 2023

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

AGENDA

Welcome and Agenda - Emanuela Delucchi, Chief ESG, IR & Comm.

  • 2022: another year of strong execution Paolo Merli, CEO:
  • Key Figures
  • Recent developments
  • Results review Michele Pedemonte, CFO:
  • Business environment
  • 2022 Production & EBITDA
  • Investments
  • Key Financials
  • 2022-2026 Business Plan update Paolo Merli, CEO:
  • A context of high volatility
  • 2022-2026 Strategy confirmed
  • Capital structure Michele Pedemonte, CFO
  • ESG always at the core Emanuela Delucchi, Chief ESG, IR & Comm.
  • 2023 Guidance & conclusions Paolo Merli, CEO

2022: ANOTHER YEAR OF STRONG EXECUTION

Paolo Merli - CEO

SIGNIFICANT EXECUTION FROM 2020 TO DATE

A STRONG SET OF RESULTS IN 2022

(1) 2021 figures do not include Hydro and CCGT results, which are accounted under IFRS5 amongst the assets disposed/under disposal

ACHIEVEMENTS IN 2022/EARLY 2023

A STRONG ACCELERATION IN OUR ENERGY TRANSITION

(1) Figures as of today do not include CCGT, which is accounted in FY 2022 under IFRS5 amongst the assets under disposal

RESULTS REVIEW

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2022 RESULTS: PRODUCTION

2022 2021 Δ Energy Production (GWh): 4Q 2022 4Q 2021 Δ
2,312 2,295 17 Italy: 567 655 (87)
2
062
,
2
078
,
(16)
Wind
529 625 (95)
250 216 33
Solar
38 30 8
1,076 889 187 France: 343 292 51
982 865 117
Wind
331 277 54
94 24 70
Solar
11 15 (4)
556 428 129 Germany - Wind: 153 149 5
615 546 69 East Europe - Wind: 160 171 (10)
256 216 40 - Poland 79 74 5
203 181 22 - Romania 45 51 (6)
155 148 7 - Bulgaria 37 46 (9)
226 226 UK - Wind: 81 81
171 171 Spain - Solar: 26 26
4,956
903
636
4,157 799
903
636
Total Energy Production
of which, Perimeter effect:

Wind
1,331
239
204
1,266 6
5
239
204
267 267
Solar
35 35

A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2022 RESULTS: EBITDA

2022 2021 Δ Adjusted EBITDA (€ mn): 4Q 2022 4Q 2021 Δ
295 308 (13) Italy: 55 106 (51)
218 243 (25)
Wind
46 98 (52)
77 65 12
Solar
10 8 2
63 45 17 France: 26 15 10
58 44 14
Wind
26 14 11
5 1 4
Solar
(0) 1 (1)
72 28 44 Germany - Wind: 29 13 16
90 45 45 East Europe - Wind: 16 20 (5)
19 16 3 - Poland 6 8 (2)
44 21 23 - Romania 4 11 (7)
28 8 19 - Bulgaria 6 1 5
24 (2) 26 UK - Wind: 6 (1) 7
18 18 Spain - Solar: 2 0 2
(25) (25) 0 Corporate: (8) (8) 1
537 399 138 Total Adjusted EBITDA(1) 126 145 (19)
118 118 of which, Perimeter effect: 28 28
83 83 Wind
23 23
35 35 Solar
4 4

(1) It does not include CCGT Adj. EBITDA, amounting to €56mn (vs. €29mn in 2021) and €4mn (vs. €0mn in 4Q 2021)

  • (1) M&A CAPEX related to Erik wind acquisition in Sweden (€41mn), plus Joran wind and solar acquisition in France (€124mn and €23mn respectively), and Ventoux wind and solar acquisition in Germany and France (for a total amount of €202mn)
  • (2) M&A CAPEX related to Valentia solar acquisition in Spain (€100mn), plus Siena solar acquisition (€115mn) and Donatello wind acquisition (€396mn), both of them in Italy, and Corlacky wind acquisition in UK (€27mn)
  • (3) M&A CAPEX related to Ventoux wind and solar acquisition in Germany and France (for a total amount of €202mn)
  • (4) M&A CAPEX related to Corlacky wind acquisition in UK (€27mn)
  • (5) 2021 figures on pro-forma basis (Wind & Solar only)

Key Financials

ADJUSTED P&L

2022 (1)
2021
Euro millions 4Q 2022 (1)
4Q 2021
537 399 Adjusted EBITDA 126 145
(229) (201) Amortization
and
depreciation
(63) (53)
308 198 Adjusted EBIT 64 92
(25) (29) Net
financial
income
(expenses)
(7) (6)
0 0 from
Net
income
(loss)
equity
investments
0 (0)
284 169 Adjusted Results before taxes 57 86
(67) (42) Income
taxes
(14) (26)
216 127 Adjusted Results on continued operations 43 60
20 77 (2)
Adjusted
Results
on discontinued
operations
(1) 11
236 203 Adjusted Results for the period 42 72
(4) (2) Minority
interests
0 0
232 202 Adjusted Net Profit 42 72
24% 25% Tax Rate 24% 30%
Of which
CCGT Results
(€ mn)
2022 2021 Euro millions 4Q 2022 4Q 2021
56 29 Adjusted EBITDA 5 0
(32) (31) Depreciation (8) (9)
25 (2) Adjusted EBIT (4) (9)
19 (1) Net Income (2) (6)

Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures

(1) 2021 figures on pro-forma basis (Wind & Solar only)

(2) 2022 figures refer to CCGT Results, whilst 2021 figures include both CCGT and Hydro Results

TOTAL IMPACT ON 2022 P&L FROM EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES

Items accounted as non recurring items

(1) It does not include Windfall Tax on CCGT (€4mn)

(2) It refers for €7mn to Italy, for €15mn to Romania and for €12mn to other countries abroad.

Note: 4Q 2022 figures are as follows: Windfall Tax Italy = €19mn, Windfall Tax Romania = €0mn (internalized in the tariff versus Q421), Price Cap = €14mn, Total 4Q 2022 windfall & clawback = €33mn

2022 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(5) It includes mainly €34mn fair value futures, -€76mn fair value IRS, €92mn tax cash-out, €15mn other reserves and €19mn others

2022-2026 BUSINESS PLAN UPDATE Paolo Merli - CEO

ERG AS OF TODAY: A SOLID PLATFORM OF ASSETS TO BOOST FUTURE GROWTH

(1) It includes Creag Riabhach wind farm (92MW, commissioned on January 12, 2023) and Sandy Knowe wind farm (86MW commissioned in two phases, respectively on October 13, 2022 and on December 16, 2022)

(2) It refers to Furuby wind farm (62MW), entered into operation on November 25, 2022

(3) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria

A LARGER PIPELINE, BOOSTING SOLAR DIVERSIFICATION

An increased and visible pipeline with expected possible COD in the next 5 years

(1) Les Bouchats 20MW, Erik 62MW, Sandy Knowe 86MW, Piotrkow 25MW, Laszki 36MW and Creag Riabhach 92MW

STRENGTHENING BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT TEAMS

A context of high volatility

EXTREME VOLATILITY IN NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY PRICES

Higher prices and higher volatility

(1) It represents the range where expected prices in various ERG's reference countries fall. Sensitivity to prices is anyway limited by exposure to PPA, CfD mechanism and hedging

REACTION TO HIGH ELECTRICITY PRICES IN EU: EMERGENCY MEASURES ON RES PRODUCERS

An unprecedent set of measures to hit RES producers, exacerbating the sector risk perception

(1) With respect to FiP and CfD auctions (prior to July 2020), all contracts were transformed into a pure 2 ways CfD: the limit (plafond) to reimbursement in case of electricity prices higher than the tariff was removed

RENEWABLES IN 2022: CAPACITY INCREASED AT A SLOWER PACE THAN EXPECTED

Source: ERG on data from Windeurope (Sweden and UK: waiting for BEIS figures), SolarPower Europe (for PV data referred to Germany, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria), Terna, RED Electrica, Ministère de la Transition Ecologique, BEIS

Permitting bottlenecks still causing delays in EU decarbonization process

(1) UK: data updated as at September 30, 2022

(2) Spanish figures do not include self-consumption. According to SolarPower Europe preliminary figures, in 2022 4GW under self-consumption were installed (under verification) – spike vs. previous years

GREENINFLATION: A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT FOR SUPPLY CHAIN

Pression on supply chain to remain strong

COMPETITIVE AUCTIONS (CFD) ARE IN PLACE BUT RULES NEED TO BE UPDATED

Streamlining of permitting and redesigning auctions key for RES deployment

(1) Figures are referred to 2023 auctions cap levels. Cap is not disclosed in Spain and, from December 2022, in France

(2) Available budget in CfD AR 4 auction was totally awarded, but capacity cap was not exceeded (3.1GW awarded to PV + onshore Wind vs. 5GW capacity cap)

PPAs ARE GAINING GROUND AS ALTERNATIVE ROUTE TO MARKET

Corporate PPAs (GW) - global PPA in Europe (GW)

PPAs still growing although recent volatility and regulatory uncertainty slowed down negotiations in EU

2022-2026 Strategy confirmed

ERG'S CONFIRMED TARGETS TO 2026

ERG'S new targets to 2026 Vs. last year
Growth in scale +2.2GW in 2022-2026 (+526MW in 2022)
4.6GW installed Capacity in 2026 (5GW in 2027)
Confirmed
Investments/EBITDA €3.5bn 2022-2026; >€650mn @2026 CAPEX,
EBITDA
Energy Sales/Mgmt Confirmed target 85-90% regulated on total EBITDA;
PPAs vs auction
Confirmed
Geographical diversification 9 countries in 2022: Spain and Sweden in operation Confirmed
Solar as strategic pillar ~860MW of Solar PV (out of +2,200MW)
~25% of Solar on group capacity @2026-2027
+
Innovation Battery Storage;
exploring floating offshore opportunities
Confirmed our commitment
to new business lines
Conventional is "legacy" Relaunch of the CCGT disposal process Asset Rotation confirmed
Integration of ESG Confirmed at the core of ERG's business model
Dividend Policy 1.0 € per share (+10% vs previous) +10%

CONFIRMED 2026 TARGET OF 4.6GW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY

(1) It correspondes to a gross growth of 2.4GW

(2) It includes about 160MW of Repowering under construction

(3) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria

422MW IN CONSTRUCTION/RTB THUS GIVING VISIBILITY TO ERG'S PIPELINE

Mineo-Militello-Vizzini Monreale-Partinico Camporeale
101MW to be,
51MW Δ
vs as-is
42MW to be,
26MW Δ
vs as-is
50MW to be,
30MW Δ
vs as-is
COD: 2Q 2024 COD: 2Q 2023 COD: 2Q 2023
Producibility: 2,300 heq Producibility: 2,200 heq Producibility: 1,700 heq
Roccapalumba Salemi-Castlvetrano Corlacky
47MW 76MW to be,
50MW Δ
vs as-is
47MW
COD: 4Q 2023 COD: 4Q 2024 RTB
Producibility: 2,100 heq Producibility: 2,300 heq COD: 4Q 2025
Producibility: 3,760 heq
Bourgogne 1 Limousine 1 Picardie 1
32MW 9MW 18MW
COD: 4Q 2024 COD: 4Q 2024 RTB
Producibility: 2,260 heq Producibility: 2,170 heq COD: 1Q 2025
Producibility: 2,670 heq

(1) Tot. MW under construction on absolute basis

(2) Tot. MW under construction on differential basis

CAPEX EVOLUTION IN 2022-2026

Increase due 50-50 by higher quality and cost overruns (though limited versus greeninflation) 33

EBITDA EVOLUTION IN THE PLAN PERIOD

Stronger EBITDA to more than offset overruns

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

FINANCIAL STRUCTURE

Issuer Default Rating : BBB- outlook stable

"ERG's 'BBB-' IDR affirmation reflects robust business profile, and a diversified and clean asset base..."

Repayment Schedule based on stock as of December 2022 (€ bn)

Solid balance sheet with limited refinancing needs until 2025

Gross debt at 31/12/2022

SOLID FINANCIAL PROFILE OVER BP HORIZON

Net debt & leverage over BP horizon

Further room for re-leverage maintaining an IG rating at a competitive cost

ESG ALWAYS AT THE CORE

Emanuela Delucchi – Chief ESG, IR & Communication

ESG AT THE CORE OF ERG'S 2022-2026 STRATEGY

18 targets consistent with 14 out of 17 SDGs of United Nations

CONTINUING OUR ESG JOURNEY FORWARD

Top tier in main ESG ratings 40

KEEP DECARBONIZING

  • Carbon index down 11% in 2022 (baseline 2021 restated)
  • Carbon index down to «Zero» after Asset Rotation

• >2.5mn t of CO2 avoided in 2022 and >13mn t over the last 5 years

"NET ZERO" TARGET CONFIRMED @2040

ERG will reach Net Zero Target @2040 (to be approved by SBT)

The strategy to become Net Zero @2040

Asset Rotation CCGT

100% RES production

100% sales of Green Energy

75% of Suppliers(1) with SBT target @2030

ERG PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EU GREEN TAXONOMY AFTER ASSET ROTATION

OUR PATH FOR AN EVEN MORE INCLUSIVE ERG

2023 GUIDANCE & CONCLUSIONS

Paolo Merli - CEO

2023 GUIDANCE

Ebitda up like-for-like (net of clawbacks) with a stronger balance sheet

(1) It does not include clawback measures in FY 2022 for €35mn

(2) It does not include any contribution pro-tempore related to CCGT, which will be consolidated on a reported basis in the discontinued operations from January 1, 2022 46

2022-2026 BP UPDATED KEY TARGETS