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ERG — Investor Presentation 2023
Mar 15, 2023
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Investor Presentation
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2022 RESULTS AND STRATEGY UPDATE IR DAY
15 March 2023
DISCLAIMER
This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.
AGENDA
❑ Welcome and Agenda - Emanuela Delucchi, Chief ESG, IR & Comm.
- ❑ 2022: another year of strong execution Paolo Merli, CEO:
- Key Figures
- Recent developments
- ❑ Results review Michele Pedemonte, CFO:
- Business environment
- 2022 Production & EBITDA
- Investments
- Key Financials
- ❑ 2022-2026 Business Plan update Paolo Merli, CEO:
- A context of high volatility
- 2022-2026 Strategy confirmed
- ❑ Capital structure Michele Pedemonte, CFO
- ❑ ESG always at the core Emanuela Delucchi, Chief ESG, IR & Comm.
- ❑ 2023 Guidance & conclusions Paolo Merli, CEO
2022: ANOTHER YEAR OF STRONG EXECUTION
Paolo Merli - CEO
SIGNIFICANT EXECUTION FROM 2020 TO DATE
A STRONG SET OF RESULTS IN 2022
(1) 2021 figures do not include Hydro and CCGT results, which are accounted under IFRS5 amongst the assets disposed/under disposal
ACHIEVEMENTS IN 2022/EARLY 2023
A STRONG ACCELERATION IN OUR ENERGY TRANSITION
(1) Figures as of today do not include CCGT, which is accounted in FY 2022 under IFRS5 amongst the assets under disposal
RESULTS REVIEW
Michele Pedemonte - CFO
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2022 RESULTS: PRODUCTION
| 2022 | 2021 | Δ | Energy Production (GWh): | 4Q 2022 | 4Q 2021 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,312 | 2,295 | 17 | Italy: | 567 | 655 | (87) |
| 2 062 , |
2 078 , |
(16) | • Wind |
529 | 625 | (95) |
| 250 | 216 | 33 | • Solar |
38 | 30 | 8 |
| 1,076 | 889 | 187 | France: | 343 | 292 | 51 |
| 982 | 865 | 117 | • Wind |
331 | 277 | 54 |
| 94 | 24 | 70 | • Solar |
11 | 15 | (4) |
| 556 | 428 | 129 | Germany - Wind: | 153 | 149 | 5 |
| 615 | 546 | 69 | East Europe - Wind: | 160 | 171 | (10) |
| 256 | 216 | 40 | - Poland | 79 | 74 | 5 |
| 203 | 181 | 22 | - Romania | 45 | 51 | (6) |
| 155 | 148 | 7 | - Bulgaria | 37 | 46 | (9) |
| 226 | 226 | UK - Wind: | 81 | 81 | ||
| 171 | 171 | Spain - Solar: | 26 | 26 | ||
| 4,956 903 636 |
4,157 | 799 903 636 |
Total Energy Production of which, Perimeter effect: • Wind |
1,331 239 204 |
1,266 | 6 5 239 204 |
| 267 | 267 | • Solar |
35 | 35 |
A SNAPSHOT OF FY AND 4Q 2022 RESULTS: EBITDA
| 2022 | 2021 | Δ | Adjusted EBITDA (€ mn): | 4Q 2022 | 4Q 2021 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295 | 308 | (13) | Italy: | 55 | 106 | (51) |
| 218 | 243 | (25) | • Wind |
46 | 98 | (52) |
| 77 | 65 | 12 | • Solar |
10 | 8 | 2 |
| 63 | 45 | 17 | France: | 26 | 15 | 10 |
| 58 | 44 | 14 | • Wind |
26 | 14 | 11 |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | • Solar |
(0) | 1 | (1) |
| 72 | 28 | 44 | Germany - Wind: | 29 | 13 | 16 |
| 90 | 45 | 45 | East Europe - Wind: | 16 | 20 | (5) |
| 19 | 16 | 3 | - Poland | 6 | 8 | (2) |
| 44 | 21 | 23 | - Romania | 4 | 11 | (7) |
| 28 | 8 | 19 | - Bulgaria | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| 24 | (2) | 26 | UK - Wind: | 6 | (1) | 7 |
| 18 | 18 | Spain - Solar: | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| (25) | (25) | 0 | Corporate: | (8) | (8) | 1 |
| 537 | 399 | 138 | Total Adjusted EBITDA(1) | 126 | 145 | (19) |
| 118 | 118 | of which, Perimeter effect: | 28 | 28 | ||
| 83 | 83 | Wind • |
23 | 23 | ||
| 35 | 35 | Solar • |
4 | 4 |
(1) It does not include CCGT Adj. EBITDA, amounting to €56mn (vs. €29mn in 2021) and €4mn (vs. €0mn in 4Q 2021)
- (1) M&A CAPEX related to Erik wind acquisition in Sweden (€41mn), plus Joran wind and solar acquisition in France (€124mn and €23mn respectively), and Ventoux wind and solar acquisition in Germany and France (for a total amount of €202mn)
- (2) M&A CAPEX related to Valentia solar acquisition in Spain (€100mn), plus Siena solar acquisition (€115mn) and Donatello wind acquisition (€396mn), both of them in Italy, and Corlacky wind acquisition in UK (€27mn)
- (3) M&A CAPEX related to Ventoux wind and solar acquisition in Germany and France (for a total amount of €202mn)
- (4) M&A CAPEX related to Corlacky wind acquisition in UK (€27mn)
- (5) 2021 figures on pro-forma basis (Wind & Solar only)
Key Financials
ADJUSTED P&L
| 2022 | (1) 2021 |
Euro millions | 4Q 2022 | (1) 4Q 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 537 | 399 | Adjusted EBITDA | 126 | 145 |
| (229) | (201) | Amortization and depreciation |
(63) | (53) |
| 308 | 198 | Adjusted EBIT | 64 | 92 |
| (25) | (29) | Net financial income (expenses) |
(7) | (6) |
| 0 | 0 | from Net income (loss) equity investments |
0 | (0) |
| 284 | 169 | Adjusted Results before taxes | 57 | 86 |
| (67) | (42) | Income taxes |
(14) | (26) |
| 216 | 127 | Adjusted Results on continued operations | 43 | 60 |
| 20 | 77 | (2) Adjusted Results on discontinued operations |
(1) | 11 |
| 236 | 203 | Adjusted Results for the period | 42 | 72 |
| (4) | (2) | Minority interests |
0 | 0 |
| 232 | 202 | Adjusted Net Profit | 42 | 72 |
| 24% | 25% | Tax Rate | 24% | 30% |
| Of which CCGT Results (€ mn) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | Euro millions | 4Q 2022 | 4Q 2021 | ||
| 56 | 29 | Adjusted EBITDA | 5 | 0 | ||
| (32) | (31) | Depreciation | (8) | (9) | ||
| 25 | (2) | Adjusted EBIT | (4) | (9) | ||
| 19 | (1) | Net Income | (2) | (6) |
Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures
(1) 2021 figures on pro-forma basis (Wind & Solar only)
(2) 2022 figures refer to CCGT Results, whilst 2021 figures include both CCGT and Hydro Results
TOTAL IMPACT ON 2022 P&L FROM EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES
Items accounted as non recurring items
(1) It does not include Windfall Tax on CCGT (€4mn)
(2) It refers for €7mn to Italy, for €15mn to Romania and for €12mn to other countries abroad.
Note: 4Q 2022 figures are as follows: Windfall Tax Italy = €19mn, Windfall Tax Romania = €0mn (internalized in the tariff versus Q421), Price Cap = €14mn, Total 4Q 2022 windfall & clawback = €33mn
2022 CASH FLOW STATEMENT
(5) It includes mainly €34mn fair value futures, -€76mn fair value IRS, €92mn tax cash-out, €15mn other reserves and €19mn others
2022-2026 BUSINESS PLAN UPDATE Paolo Merli - CEO
ERG AS OF TODAY: A SOLID PLATFORM OF ASSETS TO BOOST FUTURE GROWTH
(1) It includes Creag Riabhach wind farm (92MW, commissioned on January 12, 2023) and Sandy Knowe wind farm (86MW commissioned in two phases, respectively on October 13, 2022 and on December 16, 2022)
(2) It refers to Furuby wind farm (62MW), entered into operation on November 25, 2022
(3) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
A LARGER PIPELINE, BOOSTING SOLAR DIVERSIFICATION
An increased and visible pipeline with expected possible COD in the next 5 years
(1) Les Bouchats 20MW, Erik 62MW, Sandy Knowe 86MW, Piotrkow 25MW, Laszki 36MW and Creag Riabhach 92MW
STRENGTHENING BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT TEAMS
A context of high volatility
EXTREME VOLATILITY IN NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY PRICES
Higher prices and higher volatility
(1) It represents the range where expected prices in various ERG's reference countries fall. Sensitivity to prices is anyway limited by exposure to PPA, CfD mechanism and hedging
REACTION TO HIGH ELECTRICITY PRICES IN EU: EMERGENCY MEASURES ON RES PRODUCERS
An unprecedent set of measures to hit RES producers, exacerbating the sector risk perception
(1) With respect to FiP and CfD auctions (prior to July 2020), all contracts were transformed into a pure 2 ways CfD: the limit (plafond) to reimbursement in case of electricity prices higher than the tariff was removed
RENEWABLES IN 2022: CAPACITY INCREASED AT A SLOWER PACE THAN EXPECTED
Source: ERG on data from Windeurope (Sweden and UK: waiting for BEIS figures), SolarPower Europe (for PV data referred to Germany, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria), Terna, RED Electrica, Ministère de la Transition Ecologique, BEIS
Permitting bottlenecks still causing delays in EU decarbonization process
(1) UK: data updated as at September 30, 2022
(2) Spanish figures do not include self-consumption. According to SolarPower Europe preliminary figures, in 2022 4GW under self-consumption were installed (under verification) – spike vs. previous years
GREENINFLATION: A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT FOR SUPPLY CHAIN
Pression on supply chain to remain strong
COMPETITIVE AUCTIONS (CFD) ARE IN PLACE BUT RULES NEED TO BE UPDATED
Streamlining of permitting and redesigning auctions key for RES deployment
(1) Figures are referred to 2023 auctions cap levels. Cap is not disclosed in Spain and, from December 2022, in France
(2) Available budget in CfD AR 4 auction was totally awarded, but capacity cap was not exceeded (3.1GW awarded to PV + onshore Wind vs. 5GW capacity cap)
PPAs ARE GAINING GROUND AS ALTERNATIVE ROUTE TO MARKET
Corporate PPAs (GW) - global PPA in Europe (GW)
PPAs still growing although recent volatility and regulatory uncertainty slowed down negotiations in EU
2022-2026 Strategy confirmed
ERG'S CONFIRMED TARGETS TO 2026
| ERG'S new targets to 2026 | Vs. last year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth in scale | +2.2GW in 2022-2026 (+526MW in 2022) 4.6GW installed Capacity in 2026 (5GW in 2027) |
Confirmed | |||
| Investments/EBITDA | €3.5bn 2022-2026; >€650mn @2026 | CAPEX, EBITDA |
|||
| Energy Sales/Mgmt | Confirmed target 85-90% regulated on total EBITDA; PPAs vs auction |
Confirmed | |||
| Geographical diversification | 9 countries in 2022: Spain and Sweden in operation | Confirmed | |||
| Solar as strategic pillar | ~860MW of Solar PV (out of +2,200MW) ~25% of Solar on group capacity @2026-2027 |
+ | |||
| Innovation | Battery Storage; exploring floating offshore opportunities |
Confirmed our commitment to new business lines |
|||
| Conventional is "legacy" | Relaunch of the CCGT disposal process | Asset Rotation confirmed | |||
| Integration of ESG | Confirmed at the core of ERG's business model | ||||
| Dividend Policy | 1.0 € per share (+10% vs previous) | +10% |
CONFIRMED 2026 TARGET OF 4.6GW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY
(1) It correspondes to a gross growth of 2.4GW
(2) It includes about 160MW of Repowering under construction
(3) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
422MW IN CONSTRUCTION/RTB THUS GIVING VISIBILITY TO ERG'S PIPELINE
| Mineo-Militello-Vizzini | Monreale-Partinico | Camporeale | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101MW to be, 51MW Δ vs as-is |
42MW to be, 26MW Δ vs as-is |
50MW to be, 30MW Δ vs as-is |
|||
| COD: 2Q 2024 | COD: 2Q 2023 | COD: 2Q 2023 | |||
| Producibility: 2,300 heq | Producibility: 2,200 heq | Producibility: 1,700 heq | |||
| Roccapalumba | Salemi-Castlvetrano | Corlacky | |||
| 47MW | 76MW to be, 50MW Δ vs as-is |
47MW | |||
| COD: 4Q 2023 | COD: 4Q 2024 | RTB | |||
| Producibility: 2,100 heq | Producibility: 2,300 heq | COD: 4Q 2025 | |||
| Producibility: 3,760 heq | |||||
| Bourgogne 1 | Limousine 1 | Picardie 1 | |||
| 32MW | 9MW | 18MW | |||
| COD: 4Q 2024 | COD: 4Q 2024 | RTB | |||
| Producibility: 2,260 heq | Producibility: 2,170 heq | COD: 1Q 2025 | |||
| Producibility: 2,670 heq |
(1) Tot. MW under construction on absolute basis
(2) Tot. MW under construction on differential basis
CAPEX EVOLUTION IN 2022-2026
Increase due 50-50 by higher quality and cost overruns (though limited versus greeninflation) 33
EBITDA EVOLUTION IN THE PLAN PERIOD
Stronger EBITDA to more than offset overruns
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Michele Pedemonte - CFO
FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
Issuer Default Rating : BBB- outlook stable
"ERG's 'BBB-' IDR affirmation reflects robust business profile, and a diversified and clean asset base..."
Repayment Schedule based on stock as of December 2022 (€ bn)
Solid balance sheet with limited refinancing needs until 2025
Gross debt at 31/12/2022
SOLID FINANCIAL PROFILE OVER BP HORIZON
Net debt & leverage over BP horizon
Further room for re-leverage maintaining an IG rating at a competitive cost
ESG ALWAYS AT THE CORE
Emanuela Delucchi – Chief ESG, IR & Communication
ESG AT THE CORE OF ERG'S 2022-2026 STRATEGY
18 targets consistent with 14 out of 17 SDGs of United Nations
CONTINUING OUR ESG JOURNEY FORWARD
Top tier in main ESG ratings 40
KEEP DECARBONIZING
- Carbon index down 11% in 2022 (baseline 2021 restated)
- Carbon index down to «Zero» after Asset Rotation
• >2.5mn t of CO2 avoided in 2022 and >13mn t over the last 5 years
"NET ZERO" TARGET CONFIRMED @2040
ERG will reach Net Zero Target @2040 (to be approved by SBT)
The strategy to become Net Zero @2040
Asset Rotation CCGT
100% RES production
100% sales of Green Energy
75% of Suppliers(1) with SBT target @2030
ERG PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EU GREEN TAXONOMY AFTER ASSET ROTATION
OUR PATH FOR AN EVEN MORE INCLUSIVE ERG
2023 GUIDANCE & CONCLUSIONS
Paolo Merli - CEO
2023 GUIDANCE
Ebitda up like-for-like (net of clawbacks) with a stronger balance sheet
(1) It does not include clawback measures in FY 2022 for €35mn
(2) It does not include any contribution pro-tempore related to CCGT, which will be consolidated on a reported basis in the discontinued operations from January 1, 2022 46