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ERG — Investor Presentation 2023
May 24, 2023
4235_ip_2023-05-24_70496ce8-aa1d-4c13-83e0-25b44296eeab.pdf
Investor Presentation
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ERG COMPANY OVERVIEW
IIC 2023 - Italian Investment Conference 25 May 2023
DISCLAIMER
This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be no assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.
AGENDA
- ❑ ERG Today
- ❑ Recent Developments, 1Q 2023 Results and 2023 Guidance
- ❑ Abstract of ERG's updated 2022-2026 Business Plan
- ❑ 2022-2026 Targets & Financial Strategy
- ❑ Management Profiles
ERG TODAY
is 1,506MW.
(1) The closing for the sale of the Hydro portfolio to Enel took place on January 3, 2022 (2) The closing of the solar acquisition in Spain (92MW) took place on January 31, 2022 (3) The closing of the solar acquisition in Spain (25MW) is expected during 1H 2023
5
Europe is 1,929MW.
ERG AS OF TODAY: A SOLID PLATFORM OF ASSETS TO BOOST FUTURE GROWTH
(1) It includes Creag Riabhach wind farm (92MW, commissioned on January 12, 2023) and Sandy Knowe wind farm (86MW commissioned in two phases, respectively on October 13, 2022 and on December 16, 2022)
(4) Repowering is on a gross basis
(2) It refers to Furuby wind farm (62MW), entered into operation on November 25, 2022
(3) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
"ERG's 'BBB-' IDR affirmation reflects robust business profile, and a diversified and clean asset base..." Issuer Default Rating : BBB- outlook stable
Repayment Schedule based on stock as of December 2022 (€ bn)
Solid balance sheet with limited refinancing needs until 2025
SOLID FINANCIAL PROFILE OVER BP HORIZON
Net debt & leverage over BP horizon
Further room for re-leverage maintaining an IG rating at a competitive cost
ERG AS A "TOP PERFORMER" IN THE MAIN ESG RATING
- ✓ MSCI improved ERG's rating to "AAA", positioning ERG among TOP 18 global international Companies
- ✓ ERG included in S&P Clean Energy Index
- ✓ ERG entered the "Corporate Knights Global 100 most sustainable corporations in the world" and ranked 54th, the first among Italian companies included on the list
- ✓ Sustainalytics improved ERG's ESG rating from "Medium Risk" (20.7) to "Low Risk" (14.3), positioning ERG 5th among global Independent Power Producers
- ✓ ERG entered the 2022 A List of CDP, thanks to its best practices for managing climate change and its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by developing renewable energies
- ✓ Science Based Target initiative (SBTi) approved ERG's emission reduction targets (well below 2°C); in 2022 we committed to Net Zero target
- ✓ ERG entered the MIB ESG Index, dedicated to the 40 most important listed Italian issuers performing the best practices in Sustainability
- ✓ The Bloomberg Gender Equality Index (GEI) improved ERG's score, allowing it to enter the first quarter of the ranking, thanks to its commitment to supporting gender equality
- ✓ ERG signed the Women's Empowerment Principles and entered the United Nations Global Compact
- ✓ ERG included in the TOP 10 of the "Integrated Governance Index 2022", among the Italian best practices in terms of Corporate Governance
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, 1Q 2023 RESULTS & 2023 GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES(1)
(1) Figures from continuing operations (excluding CCGT)
(2) It refers to figures gross of clawback measures. EBITDA net of clawback measures = €165mn, Net Profit net of clawback measures = €67mn
(3) It refers to figures gross of clawback measures. EBITDA net of clawback measures = €161mn, Net Profit net of clawback measures = €78mn
MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE PERIOD
ERG included in the "Global 100 most sustainable corporations in the world" ranking by Corporate Knights
FURTHER ACCELERATION IN SOLAR IN SPAIN
Transaction Overview Rationale
Acquisition of a solar PV plant in Spain, located in Zamora's town of Toro (Castile and Leon region), in advanced phase of construction for a total installed capacity of 149MW
- Further step in growing RES asset base
- Boosting solar diversification
- Spain to become one of the main markets for ERG, reaching a solar PV capacity of 266MW, with 1GW of under development pipeline
- High quality technology in terms of PV modules and inverters
| Solar PV Plant Overview | |
|---|---|
| Total Capacity: | 149MW |
| Energy Production: | 280GWh (~22% load factor) |
| Enterprise Value: | €170mn |
| Solar Technology: | latest-generation bifacial panels and tracker system |
| COD: | End of 2023 |
| Route to Market: | 12 year Corporate PPA for 70% of production with a primary offtaker |
A SNAPSHOT OF 1Q 2023 RESULTS: EBITDA
| Adjusted EBITDA (€ mn): | 1Q 2023 | 1Q 2022 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy: | 8 2 |
8 2 |
0 |
| • Wind |
69 | 69 | 0 |
| • Solar |
13 | 13 | (0) |
| France: | 2 9 |
1 8 |
1 0 |
| • Wind |
28 | 18 | 10 |
| • Solar |
1 | 1 | (0) |
| Germany - Wind: | 2 8 |
2 5 |
3 |
| East Europe - Wind: | 2 3 |
3 3 |
(10) |
| UK & Nordics - Wind: | 8 | 1 1 |
(4) |
| Spain - Solar: | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Corporate: | (5) | (6) | 1 |
| Total Adjusted EBITDA | (1) 167 |
(2) 168 |
(0) |
| of which, Perimeter effect: | 25 | 25 | |
| Wind • |
22 | 22 | |
| Solar • |
3 | 3 |
INVESTMENTS
ADJUSTED P&L
| 4Q 2022 | Euro millions | (1) 1Q 2023 |
(2) 1Q 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | Adjusted EBITDA | 167 | 168 |
| (63) | Amortization and depreciation |
(56) | (54) |
| 64 | Adjusted EBIT | 111 | 114 |
| (7) | Net financial income (expenses) |
(3) | (6) |
| 0 | from Net income (loss) equity investments |
(0) | 0 |
| 57 | Adjusted Results before taxes | 108 | 107 |
| (14) | Income taxes |
(24) | (23) |
| 43 | Adjusted Results on continued operations | 84 | 84 |
| (1) | (3) Adjusted Results on discontinued operations |
(6) | 0 |
| 42 | Adjusted Results for the period | 78 | 85 |
| 0 | Minority interests |
0 | (0) |
| 42 | Adjusted Net Profit | 78 | 84 |
| 24% | Tax Rate | 22% | 22% |
Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures
(1) Figures gross of clawback measures. EBITDA net of clawback measures = €161mn, Net Profit net of clawback measures = €78mn
(2) Figures gross of clawback measures. EBITDA net of clawback measures = €165mn, Net Profit net of clawback measures = €67mn
(3) Figures refer to CCGT Results. 1Q 2022 results include depreciation of the period
1Q 2023 CASH FLOW STATEMENT
(1) Figures from continuing operations
- (2) Figure gross of clawback measures (EBITDA net of clawback measures = €161mn)
- (3) Figure gross of clawback measures (Net working capital net of clawback measures = -€106mn). It also includes €7mn clawback measures and some financial impact of hedging operations done in the period (-€79mn).
- (4) It includes prepayment fee for €4mn related to corporate financing
- (5) It includes mainly -€40mn fair value futures, +€9mn fair value IRS, +€2mn tax cash-out, and -€5mn others
INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION
Keep delivering on our growth strategy
2023 GUIDANCE
EBITDA guidance confirmed, CAPEX and NFP up following acquisition in Spain
(1) It does not include clawback measures in 1Q 2023 for €7mn
(2) EBITDA guidance net of clawbacks. It does not include any contribution pro-tempore related to CCGT, which is consolidated on a reported basis in the discontinued operations from January 1, 2022
ABSTRACT OF ERG'S UPDATED 2022-2026 BP
ERG'S CONFIRMED TARGETS TO 2026
| ERG'S new targets to 2026 | Vs. last year | |
|---|---|---|
| Growth in scale | +2.2GW in 2022-2026 (+526MW in 2022) 4.6GW installed Capacity in 2026 (5GW in 2027) |
Confirmed |
| Investments/EBITDA | €3.5bn 2022-2026; >€650mn @2026 | CAPEX, EBITDA |
| Energy Sales/Mgmt | Confirmed target 85-90% regulated on total EBITDA; PPAs vs auction |
Confirmed |
| Geographical diversification | 9 countries in 2022: Spain and Sweden in operation | Confirmed |
| Solar as strategic pillar | ~860MW of Solar PV (out of +2,200MW) ~25% of Solar on group capacity @2026-2027 |
+ |
| Innovation | Battery Storage; exploring floating offshore opportunities |
Confirmed our commitment to new business lines |
| Conventional is "legacy" | Relaunch of the CCGT disposal process | Asset Rotation confirmed |
| Integration of ESG | Confirmed at the core of ERG's business model | |
| Dividend Policy | 1.0 € per share (+10% vs previous) | +10% |
2022-2026 BP UPDATED KEY TARGETS
CONFIRMED 2026 TARGET OF 4.6GW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY
GW by geography Cumulative RES additional installed Capacity 2022-2026 (GW) Wind & Solar installed Capacity (GW) 2026 Per Stream Per Tech 2.2(1) 2.2(1) ~440MW/Y 2022 Solar Storage 2026 2.9 0.9 0.8 4.6 + 1.7 CAGR: ~12% Wind 2.6 Wind 3.4 Solar 1.2 0.3 M&A & new pipeline Proprietary Greenfield Under Construction(2) Repowering Already in operation Storage 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.6 Solar 1.0 Wind 1.2 Wind 2022 49% 5% 20% 9% 3% (3) 2.9 ~7% ~44% ~8% ~21% (3) ~7% ~12% ~1% 4.6 11% 2% 0.1
(1) It correspondes to a gross growth of 2.4GW
(2) It includes about 160MW of Repowering under construction
(3) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria
422MW IN CONSTRUCTION/RTB THUS GIVING VISIBILITY TO ERG'S PIPELINE
| Mineo-Militello-Vizzini | Monreale-Partinico | Camporeale | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101MW to be, 51MW Δ vs as-is |
42MW to be, 26MW Δ vs as-is |
50MW to be, 30MW Δ vs as-is |
||
| COD: 2Q 2024 | COD: 2Q 2023 | COD: 2Q 2023 | ||
| Producibility: 2,300 heq | Producibility: 2,200 heq | Producibility: 1,700 heq | ||
| Roccapalumba | Salemi-Castelvetrano | Corlacky | ||
| 47MW | 76MW to be, 50MW Δ vs as-is |
47MW | ||
| COD: 4Q 2023 | COD: 4Q 2024 | RTB | ||
| Producibility: 2,100 heq | Producibility: 2,300 heq COD: 4Q 2025 |
|||
| Producibility: 3,760 heq | ||||
| Bourgogne 1 | Limousine 1 | Picardie 1 | ||
| 32MW | 9MW | 18MW | ||
| COD: 4Q 2024 | COD: 4Q 2024 | RTB | ||
| Producibility: 2,260 heq | Producibility: 2,170 heq | COD: 1Q 2025 | ||
| Producibility: 2,670 heq |
(1) Tot. MW under construction on absolute basis
(2) Tot. MW under construction on differential basis
OUR REPOWERING PROJECTS IN ITALY ARE GAINING VISIBILITY
26
ESG AT THE CORE OF ERG'S 2022-2026 STRATEGY
18 targets consistent with 14 out of 17 SDGs of United Nations
2022-2026 TARGETS & FINANCIAL STRATEGY
RENEWABLES IN 2022: CAPACITY INCREASED AT A SLOWER PACE THAN EXPECTED
Source: ERG on data from Windeurope (Sweden and UK: waiting for BEIS figures), SolarPower Europe (for PV data referred to Germany, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria), Terna, RED Electrica, Ministère de la Transition Ecologique, BEIS
Permitting bottlenecks still causing delays in EU decarbonization process
(1) UK: data updated as at September 30, 2022
(2) Spanish figures do not include self-consumption. According to SolarPower Europe preliminary figures, in 2022 4GW under self-consumption were installed (under verification) – spike vs. previous years
GREENINFLATION: A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT FOR SUPPLY CHAIN
Pression on supply chain to remain strong
PPAs ARE GAINING GROUND AS ALTERNATIVE ROUTE TO MARKET
Corporate PPAs (GW) - global PPA in Europe (GW)
PPAs still growing although recent volatility and regulatory uncertainty slowed down negotiations in EU
CAPEX EVOLUTION IN 2022-2026
Increase due 50-50 by higher quality and cost overruns (though limited versus greeninflation) 32
EXTREME VOLATILITY IN NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY PRICES
Higher prices and higher volatility
(1) It represents the range where expected prices in various ERG's reference countries fall. Sensitivity to prices is anyway limited by exposure to PPA, CfD mechanism and hedging
EBITDA EVOLUTION IN THE PLAN PERIOD
Stronger EBITDA to more than offset overruns
MANAGEMENT PROFILES
PAOLO MERLI – CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Born in Milan on 24th June 1971, he graduated in Electrical Engineering from the University of Pavia in March 1996. After doing his national service at the Italian Red Cross, in June 1998 he was awarded an MBA in Finance from the Eni "Scuola Superiore Enrico Mattei".
Currently he is Chief Executive Officer of the ERG Group, which he joined in 2006 and where he has held various positions such as Corporate General Manager and Chief Financial Officer, with responsibility for Investor Relations & CSR, Group Administration, Finance, Planning, Control & Reporting, Group Risk Management & Corporate Finance, Procurement, Human Capital & ICT and Communication.
Other positions held in the past:
From October 2015 to January 2018 he was a member of the Board of Directors of TotalErg S.p.A.
He previously worked for around 7 years as a financial analyst covering the European Energy and Motorways sectors at Intermonte, a leading brokerage firm owned by the Monte dei Paschi Banking Group. At Intermonte he was also a "specialist" in ERG stock when ERG joined the STAR segment.
From 1998 to 2000 he worked in the sales department at Snam S.p.A. (current Gas & Power division of Eni Group).
Outside of work, his biggest passion is sport, particularly cycling (racing and mountain biking), running and skiing (alpine and cross-country). Over ten participations in the Maratona dles Dolomites, the NY and Valencia marathons, and the climb up Monte Rosa are among his best experiences. He is married, with two children.
MICHELE PEDEMONTE – CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Born in Genoa on 2nd March 1975, he graduated in Economics from the University of Genoa.
He is also Manager Responsible for preparing the Company's financial reports. Member of Management Committee, Investment Committee, Risk Committee, ESG Committee and Human Capital Committee, he is also Board Director of ERG Power Generation Spa. He is secretary of the Strategic Committee of the ERG Group.
Other positions held in the past:
He previously worked for 6 years in the investment banking for Andersen Corporate Finance, Meliorbanca and Centrobanca, as advisor in M&A, corporate and project finance deals.
Between 2000 and 2001 he worked for Marconi Communications as business development analyst.
Out of the office, his main passions are sport (running, ski and rugby), mountain and reading.
He is married with three children.
EMANUELA DELUCCHI – CHIEF ESG, IR & COMMUNICATION OFFICER
Born in Genoa on 18th December 1975, she graduated in Economics from the University of Genoa in March 1999.
She joined the ERG Group in February 2008 where she is currently Chief ESG, IR & Communication Officer, with the mission to develop and monitor the implementation of the ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) Plan and to ensure the development of integrated communication strategies and solutions to guarantee the extensive promotion of the Group with the financial community and all stakeholders, maximizing the value of its reputation and protect ERG's company image.
Other positions held in the past:
From June 2020 to April 2021 she was Head of IR and CSR, reporting directly to the Corporate General Manager & CFO, and from February 2011 to June 2020 she was Investor Relations Manager.
From February 2008 to January 2011 she was Head of IR and Planning & Control at ERG Renew.
She previously worked for 3 years as a financial analyst covering the Italian Utilities & Motorways sectors at Intermonte, a leading brokerage firm owned by the Monte dei Paschi Banking Group.
Prior to that she was a financial analyst covering European Utilities & Motorways sector at Lehman Brothers. She is married, with three children.