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ERG Investor Presentation 2022

Mar 15, 2022

4235_ip_2022-03-15_28e93721-f8f3-4c87-b47c-a12555836809.pdf

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ERG IR DAY FY 2021 RESULTS AND 2022-2026 BUSINESS PLAN

15 March 2022

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

AGENDA

  • Welcome and Agenda Emanuela Delucchi, Chief ESG, IR & Comm.
  • 2021 Results in a nutshell Paolo Merli, CEO
  • Continuing our successful journey Alessandro Garrone, EVP
  • 2022-2026 Business Plan Paolo Merli, CEO:
    • ERG Today
    • Sector Trends
    • ERG Tomorrow
    • An infrastructural Business Model
    • 2022-2026 Targets
  • 2022-2026 Financial Strategy Michele Pedemonte, CFO
  • ESG always at the core Emanuela Delucchi, Chief ESG, IR & Comm.
  • FY and 4Q 2021 Results Review Michele Pedemonte, CFO
  • 2022 Guidance & Final Remarks Paolo Merli, CEO
  • Appendix

2021 RESULTS IN A NUTSHELL

Paolo Merli - CEO

2021 KEY FIGURES

5

CONTINUING OUR SUCCESSFUL JOURNEY

Alessandro Garrone - EVP

ERG 21-25 BP: ACHIEVEMENTS TO DATE

Geographical

+1.5 GW through RPW,

Increase in geographical diversification

Scouting for opportunities in

Opportunities for asset rotation

ERG'S 21-25 Targets Achievements @ Today since 21-25 BP launch

Greenfield and M&A Growth in scale +309MW in 2021 (o/w ~30% in Solar PV) further ~400MW(1) secured for 2022+

Energy Sales / Mgmt 80% regulated 0.7 TWh PPA signed in Northern Ireland, Italy and France

diversification Entry in Sweden, Spain and First MWs installed in the UK

Solar as strategic pillar +0.5GMW of solar PV +170 MW of solar assets

Storage and Hydrogen Seeding in Innovation Start up project of Storage plant (22MW) Scouting in circularity, hydrogen and floating offshore

Conventional is "legacy" Hydro closing on 3/1/2022; CCGT signing on 9/2/2022

Integration of ESG ESG Plan ERG included on S&P Global Clean Energy Index, MIB ESG Index and Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index.

2021: A DEEP DIVE INTO OURR 3 - Strategy

STRONG EXECUTION IN 2021

IMPORTANT STEP FORWARD TOWARDS IN STRENGTHENING LOCAL TEAMS IN BD AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

ERG IS NOW A PURE RENEWABLES PLAYER

Overview

  • Disposal of Hydro assets and CCGT to ENEL Produzione.
  • Total EV for hydro: €1.265bn
  • Total EV for CCGT: €188mn plus fair value of derivatives at closing
  • Closing for hydro disposal took place on 3 January 2022
  • Closing for CCGT expected in 3Q 2022 subject(1) to Antitrust Approval
  • Total FTE involved: 258

Strategic Rationale

  • Anticipate cash flow to support scale growth in RES business
  • Achieve pure RES model, refocusing on 100% ESG compliant businesses
  • Lower portfolio "merchant" exposure
  • Allowing for energy management focus towards sales & PPA activities
  • Decrease business complexity
  • Enhancing geographical diversification

ACCELERATION OF DECARBONIZATION

  • Carbon index down 20% in 2021 (baseline 2020)
  • Carbon index down to «Zero» after Asset Rotation

• >3mn t of CO2 avoided in 2021 and >15mn t over the last 5 years

A BEST-IN-CLASS GOVERNANCE MODEL

A Board Performance Review yielded solid results for 2021 13

FOCUS ON SUSTAINABILITY WAS RECOGNIZED IN 2021

"Sustainability Leaders" list

with an A rating

2022-2026 BUSINESS PLAN

Paolo Merli - CEO

ERG TODAY: A SOLID PLATFORM OF ASSETS TO BOOST FUTURE GROWTH

(3) It refers to the recent acquisition of 92MW, whose closing took place on January 31, 2022

(4) Repowering is on a gross basis

(5) It includes ~150MW storage of which 22MW with auction awarded

100%

MW

WITH AN INVESTMENT GRADE CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Capital structure aligned to ESG based business model

Unique leading renewable player with financial firepower

Sector Trends

KEY TRENDS IN THE RENEWABLES MARKET

Geopolitical crisis led to unprecedented power prices spikes…

… bringing more urgency for RES development on top of "Fit-for-55"

Permitting and Grid Connections remain bottlenecks to be solved

PV installed capacity uptake is faster than onshore wind

PPAs have a crucial role as a real route to market for RES

ESG is more and more a game changer

A REACTION TO HIGH ELECTRICITY PRICES: TEMPORARY MEASURES ON RES PRODUCERS

A EU toolbox issued in October 2021 to support consumers and not negatively affect RES producers

Nevertheless some Member States autonomously issued different measures limiting profits for RES producers:

"Decreto Bollette" to cap electricity revenues for RES plants under approval

80% windfall profit tax on revenues > 450 LEI/MWh (app. 90 EUR/MWh)

• Mechanism to reduce the remuneration for non-CO2 emitting plants > 10 MW

RES could play a strategic role to solve the "energy crisis" by reducing gas dependence

FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL THERE WITH AGGRESSIVE 2030 RES TARGET

Strong visibility on auctions on ERG's core countries

Country Auctioned
2020-2021
Awrd/Auct
2020-2021 (%)
Av Price
(€/MVVH)
Contract /
Duration
Visibility
W + S: 9.6 GW W + S: 28% W: 66.1
S: 65.7
2 ways
CFD/20yrs
W/S 2022-2027
W: 2.8 GW
S (>5 MW): 1.6 GW
W: 88%
S: 79%
W: 60.5
S: 53.6
2 ways
CFD/20yrs
W/S 2022-2026
W: 8.1 GW
S: 2.9 GW
W: 74%
S: 100%
W: 60.4
S: 51.2
1 way
CFD/20yrs
W/S 2022-2028
104 TWh 78% 51.5 2 ways
CFD/15yrs
W/S 2022-2027
W+S: 6.3GW 100% W: 27.7
ട: 28
2 ways
CFD/12yrs
W/S 2022-2025
2
AN
n.a. n.a. n.a. 2 ways
CFD/15yrs
Annual from
2023+

STRONG ACCELERATION IN PPA MARKET IN RECENT YEARS

PPAs per Country and Year

Recent Trend on PPA Prices

Corporate PPA are gaining ground in all EU ERG's core countries; prices are progressively increasing driven by surging wholesale electricity prices

(1) Based on 10y fixed baseload price in Germany

ROLL-OUT OF REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS IS LONGER THAN NEEDED

Permitted projects volumes still lag behind (in particular for wind) But geopolitical tensions accelerate urgency for energy transition

ERG tomorrow

ERG'S NEW TARGETS TO 2026

ERG'S new targets to 2026

Growth in scale +2.2GW in 2022-26 (~450MW pa) 4.6GW Installed Capacity in 2026

Energy Sales / Mgmt 80% 85-90% regulated on total EBITDA regulated

Solar as strategic pillar ~650MW of solar PV (out of +2200MW) ~ 20% of solar on group capacity @2026 +0.5GMW of solar PV

Seeding in Innovation ~50MW storage @2026 (o/w 22MW already secured) Scouting on circularity, hydrogen and floating offshore

Conventional is "legacy" Completion of CCGT disposal (subject (1) Opportunities of asset rotation to antitrust approval)

Integration of ESG ESG Plan Updated ESG Plan with more challenging KPI

Dividend Policy 0.75 € per share 0.90 € per share (+20% vs previous)

Geographical

ERG'S 21-25 Targets

+1.5 GW through RPW, Greenfield and M&A

diversification 9-10 countries: EBITDA abroad at ~ 50% @2026 Increase in geographical diversification

Scouting of opportunities in Storage and Hydrogen

(1) Golden Power clearance already obtained

2.2GW ADDITIONAL THROUGH: REPOWERING, GREENFIELD & M&A

51%

24%

14%

9%

2.4

Cumulative RES additional installed Capacity 2022-2026 (GW) Wind & Solar installed Capacity (GW)

GW by geography 2026 ~7% ~42% ~10% ~21% (2) ~8% ~7% ~5% 4.6

(1) It includes about 100MW of Repowering under construction (2) It refers to Poland, Romania and Bulgaria

560MW UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN ITALY, UK, FRANCE, POLAND AND SWEDEN

562 61 179 240(1) 62 20 476(2) 154(1)

(1) Total MW "to be" (+154MW Δ vs as-is) (2) Total MW under construction on a differential basis

OUR REPOWERING PROJECTS IN ITALY ARE GAINING VISIBILITY

Other RPW at advanced stage VIA Decree Fully Permitted

180m

WIND: PRICES TREND WTG

Onshore wind turbine prices in EUR

Short term WTG prices increases, with expectation of a longer-term stabilization Limited impact for secured CAPEX given framework agreement with Vestas and Enercon

POTENTIAL UPSIDE FROM PIPELINE IN CASE OF PERMITTING SIMPLIFICATION

Leveraging on owned pipeline to boost our growth

LEVERAGING ON A STRONG TRACK RECORD IN M&A

Currently under scrutiny several opportunities in wind & solar

THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION: MORE GEOGRAPHIES TO ADD DIVERSIFICATION

Towards a new enlarged and technologically diversified portfolio

An Infrastructural Business Model

UPDATE ON ERG PPA STRATEGY

Already secured 3.4TWh in BP period (700GWh/Y) through long term PPAs in 2021 The aim is to deliver a sizable PPA stream to secure additional 400MW

OUR STRONG INDUSTRIAL FOOTPRINT: REBLADING & SOLAR REVAMPING

What is it: replacement of the old WTGs' rotor, with innovative blades, both in the materials and aerodynamic profile

What we are doing: concluded reblading for 249 blades

Deployment plan: Planned in other Wind Farms where the repowering is not made possible

Dismantling consistent with ESG Strategy: >98% circular

Reblading Revamping

What is it: replacement of the old PV modules, with new ones with lower degradation rate and higher efficiency

What we are doing: Planning the dismantling on worksite for about 160k solar PV panels

Deployment plan: Planned revamping for a total installed capacity of 30MW

Dismantling consistent with ESG Strategy: >90% circular

Our in-depth knowledge of the plants and industrial expertise enhance Asset Value

O&M CONTRACTS OPTIMIZATION IN EUROPE – "GLOBAL APPROACH"

A strong industrial footprint with a flexible approach to O&M

FROM SEEDING TO A CONCRETE STEP FORWARD IN INNOVATION

Storage

Storage is key to support RES:

  • Assigned 22 MW of Gross Capacity in the Capacity Market auction for the 2024-2039 period
  • Ginestra (10MW) e Vicari (12MW), equipped with lithium technology
  • Both project will be active in MSD and load shifting
  • A pipeline of projects under evaluation
  • 2026 Target: 50MW installed

Digitalization

Multi-year partnership with Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia to improve asset management in particular remote control, data analysis, production optimization

Hydrogen Under evaluation partnerships or collaboration to explore opportunities in hydrogen

Floating

Exploring opportunity with technical feasibility study and regulatory aspect for wind floating In Italy

Circularity

Dismantled Wind Turbines. Possible collaboration with primary utilities for the planning and realization of an industrial scale recycling pilot plant • Solar Purpose for Solar Revamping

under study

2022-2026 Targets

11%

CAPACITY EVOLUTION IN 2022-2026

+2,200MW (450MW per year) added to strengthen ERG RES portfolio

CAPEX EVOLUTION IN 2022-2026

A capex plan to further enhance geographical & technological diversification

MERCHANT PRICES ENVIRONMENT: OUR VIEW

BP assumptions based on a more cautious price scenario (vs forwards) ahead of an expected normalization back to fundamentals

EU Electricity baseload price scenario (€/MWh)

(1) It represents the average forward price prices in various ERG's reference countries fall

(2) It represents the range where expected prices in various ERG's reference countries fall. Sensitivity to prices is anyway limited by exposure to PPA, CfD mechanism and hedging

EBITDA EVOLUTION IN THE PLAN PERIOD

A more diversified portfolio with a rising infrastructural revenue component

EBITDA TO BENEFIT FROM STRONG GROWTH OF RES PORTFOLIO

RES development to more than offset the phasing out of incentives

2022-2026 FINANCIAL STRATEGY

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

Financial policy: maintaining BBB- investment grade rating and Net Debt/Ebitda up to 4.0x

(1) Kd proforma post Liabilities Management

A RELEVERAGE TO BOOST RES PORTFOLIO

Sustainable leverage increase consistent with current investment grade rating

A ROBUST FINANCIAL STRUCTURE

"ERG's 'BBB-' IDR affirmation reflects robust business profile, and a diversified and clean asset base..."

~68%

as of dec/21

Corporate Loan

(1) ERG SpA owns operating subsidiaries via fully owned subholding ERG Power Generation (free of debt and in cash pooling with ERG S.p.A.) (2) Corporate Loans for an amount of €260mn have been prepaid in early 2022

ESG ALWAYS AT THE CORE

Emanuela Delucchi - Chief ESG, IR & Communication

KEY TRENDS IN THE ESG WORLD

Towards a "Net Zero" world

D&I at the basis of a sustainable development

Social integration & flexibility at the basis of employees retention

\$140 trillion of ESG funds by 2025(1)

EU Green Taxonomy to avoid "greenwashing"

ESG AT THE CORE OF ERG'S 2022-2026 STRATEGY

ERG 8 KEY ESG PRIORITIES…

Net ZeroCircular Economy (Wind & Solar)

• ERG Academy for Next Generation • >1% for the Community

• ERG Academy for ERG People • Inclusion & Diversity

… BUT CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT on other 8 projects well on track

We still focus on 8 priorities which will be the bulk of our ESG strategy

51

FROM CARBON NEUTRALITY… TO NET ZERO ERG will reach Net Zero Target @2040 (to be approved by SBT)

The strategy to become Net Zero @2040

Asset Rotation CCGT @2022

100% RES production @ 2023

100% sales of Green Energy @2023

75% of Supplier(1) with SBT target @2030

OUR APPROACH FOR A MORE INCLUSIVE ERG

D&I Policy approved in July 2021

ERG included Bloomberg Gender Equality Index in 2022

Women Empowerment Principles @2022

D&I certification @2025

53

ERG PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EU GREEN TAXONOMY AFTER ASSET ROTATION

We are #SDGscontributors

FY AND 4Q 2021 RESULTS REVIEW

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Italy: Electricity Production vs Demand (TWh) Clean Spark Spread Indicator (€/MWh)

4Q 2020 4Q 2021 Delta %
Italian Electricity Demand 77 80 4%
Italian Electricity Production 66 72 9%
of
which:
- Thermo 45 52 15%
- Hydro 12 9 -22%
- Solar 4 4 2%
- Wind 5 6 33%
- Other Sources 1 1 -2%

2021 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION

A solid set of results

FY & 4Q 2021 PRODUCTION PER TECHNOLOGY

Hydro (GWh) CCGT (GWh)

FY & 4Q 2021 EBITDA PER TECHNOLOGY

Hydro (€ mn) CCGT (€ mn)

INVESTMENTS

Investments increase: M&A and constructions

  • (1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of Trinity acquisition (which took place on February 24, 2020 for an amount of €42mn), and of Laszki acquisition (which took place on March 5, 2020) amounting to €2mn
  • (2) M&A CAPEX related to the Wind acquisition in Sweden (closing on May 10, 2021 for an amount of €41mn), of Joran Wind and Solar acquisition in France (closing on June 24, 2021, amounting to €146mn), and of Ventoux Wind and Solar acquisition in Germany and France (closing on October 1 and 28, 2021 for a total amount of €202mn)
  • (3) M&A CAPEX related to the Ventoux Wind and Solar acquisition in Germany and France (closing on October 1 and 28, 2021 for a total amount of €202mn)

ADJUSTED P&L

2021 2020 Euro millions 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
580 481 Adjusted EBITDA 180 119
(276) (298) Amortization
and
depreciation
(72) (74)
304 183 Adjusted EBIT 107 45
(29) (47) financial
Net
income
(expenses)
(6) (9)
0 0 Net
income
(loss)
from
equity
investments
0 0
275 136 Adjusted Results before taxes 101 36
(72) (29) Income
taxes
(30) (9)
203 107 Adjusted Results for the period 72 27
(2) (2) Minority
interests
0 0
202 106 Adjusted Net Profit 72 27
26% 21% Tax Rate 29% 25%

2021 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(1) It includes €2mn of dividends to minorities

(2) It refers to MtM future derivatives transferred to ENEL as a price adjustment for the hydro disposal 61

Paolo Merli - CEO

2022 GUIDANCE

Revised upwards to reflect stronger business environment and investments

(1) It does not include any contribution pro-tempore related to CCGT, which will be consolidated on a reported basis in the discontinued operations from January 1, 2022 to Closing Date 63

2022-2026 BP KEY TARGETS

APPENDIX

HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES

31/12/2020 31/12/2021

CCGT

Hydro

Wind

Solar

CAPEX (€ mn)

4Q 2021 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION

4Q 2021 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(1) It includes €1mn of dividends to minorities

(2) It refers to MtM future derivatives transferred to ENEL as a price adjustment for the hydro disposal

WIND KEY FIGURES (1/2)

2021 2020 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
2,198 1,967 Installed capacity (end-period, MW) 2,198 1,967
of
which:
1
093
,
1
093
,
- Italy 1
093
,
1
093
,
502 397 - France 502 397
327 272 - Germany 327 272
70 n.a. - UK 70 n.a.
82 82 - Poland 82 82
70 70 - Romania 70 70
54 54 - Bulgaria 54 54
3,917 3,911 Electricity Production (GWh) 1,221 1,029
of
which:
2
078
,
1
902
,
- Italy 625 486
865 952 - France 277 273
428 470 - Germany 149 126
216 244 - Poland 74 64
181 193 - Romania 51 43
148 150 - Bulgaria 46 36

WIND KEY FIGURES (2/2)

2021 2020 Euro millions 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
Unitary Revenues (€/MWh):
149 119 - Italy 198 115
88 89 - France 86 89
112 96 - Germany 130 93
101 78 - Poland 130 84
135 56 - Romania 247 65
128 66 - Bulgaria 215 79
Adjusted EBITDA:
243 165 - Italy 98 41
44 58 - France 14 16
28 28 - Germany 13 8
16 15 - Poland 8 4
21 8 - Romania 11 2
8 9 - Bulgaria 1 4
(2) (1) - UK (1) (0)
358 282 Total Adjusted EBITDA 145 74
(155) (165) Depreciation (40) (40)
203 118 Adjusted EBIT 105 35

2021 2020 Euro millions 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
Unitary Revenues (€/MWh)
335 315 - Italy 339 318
90 n.a. - France 95 n.a.

Unitary Revenues (€/MWh)
335 315 - Italy 339 318
90 n.a. - France 95 n.a.
240 228 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 45 32
66 66 Adjusted EBITDA 9 8
(42) (42) Depreciation (12) (11)
24 23 Adjusted EBIT (3) (3)

HYDRO KEY FIGURES

2021 2020 Euro millions 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
118 109 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 147 103
1,637 1,097 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 314 319
151 81 Adjusted EBITDA 34 23
(44) (57) Depreciation (11) (14)
108 24 Adjusted EBIT 23 9

THERMO KEY FIGURES

2021 2020 Euro millions 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
30 35 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 27 39
1,869 2,441 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 360 617
21 67 Adjusted EBITDA (2) 16
(31) (30) Depreciation (9) (8)
(10) 37 Adjusted EBIT (11) 9

INVESTMENTS

2021 2020 Euro millions 4Q 2021 4Q 2020
(1)
538
(2)
127
Wind 213 37
(3)
76
2 Solar 52 1
7 6 Hydro 2 2
25 18 CCGT 12 6
2 2 Corporate 1 1
648 156 Total 281 46

  • (1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of the Wind acquisition in Sweden (closing on May 10, 2021 for an amount of €41mn), of Joran Wind acquisition in France (closing on June 24, 2021, for an mount of €123mn) and of Ventoux Wind acquisition in Germany and France (closing on October 1 and 28, 2021 for a total amount of €150mn)
  • (2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of Trinity acquisition (which took place on February 24, 2020 for an amount of €42mn), and of Laszki acquisition (which took place on March 5, 2020) amounting to €2mn
  • (3) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of Ventoux Solar acquisition in France (closing on October 28, 2021, for an amount of €51mn), and of Joran Solar acquisition in France (closing on June 24, 2021, for an amount of €23mn)

2022-2026 ESG - NEW PLAN

2026 Targets

  • 1. Net Zero:
  • Scope 1 after Asset Rotation
  • Scope 2 @2025
  • Scope 3 @2040

2. Circular Economy:

  • ≥ 98% Circular Wind
  • ≥ 90% Circular Solar
  • Social purposes for circular solar

3. Energy Efficiency:

  • Wind Reblading (+72 GWh)
  • Solar Revamping (+59 GWh)
  • 4. Biodiversity:
  • Biodiversity assessment for 100% of RES organic projects
PLANET ENGAGEMENT PEOPLE GOVERNANCE
2026 Targets 2026 Targets 2026 Targets
5. ERG Academy for Next Generation:
-
20,000
students involved
8. ERG Academy for our People:
-
80% people
with individual
development plan
12. Sustainability Incentives:
100% incentives plan integrated
-
with ESG objectives
6. 1% for the Community:
-
>1% revenues for social
developments of local communities
-
100% people involved in learning
activities
13. Enhancing Governance Model:
BoD
Independence & Diversity
-
7. Trust & Reputation:
-
Top performer in main ESG Ratings
9. Diversity & Inclusion:
-

20% women amongst the key
leader (manager and senior
manager)
14. Tax Control Framework:
-
Tax Control Framework abroad
(FR@2023, DE@2024)
-
20% key leaders abroad

-
D&I Certification
-
25% women in the workforce
15. Sustainable Procurement:
-
+10 pts in average strategic
suppliers scoring
10. Employees' well-being
-
Flexible benefit Plan
-
Solidarity holidays at Group level
-
Smart Working post Pandemic
16. ESG Finance:
-
90% of Green Funding
11. Health & Safety, always:
-
No fatalities, FI<4