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ERG — Investor Presentation 2021
Nov 12, 2021
4235_ir_2021-11-12_e3ec50f6-8df7-4eb7-af65-957e8d3adda7.pdf
Investor Presentation
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3Q AND 9M 2021 RESULTS
Paolo Merli - CEO

12 November 2021

DISCLAIMER
This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

AGENDA
❑ 3Q 2021 Highlights
- Key Figures
- Recent Developments
❑ Results Review
- Business Environment
- 3Q 2021 Group EBITDA
- Results by Segments
❑ Key Financials
- Profit & Loss
- Investments
- Cash Flow Statement
- ❑ 2021 Guidance and Conclusions
- ❑ Appendix



HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES

9M 2020 9M 2021 3Q 2020 3Q 2021 (1) Adjusted means net of special items and IFRS 16, IFRS9 plus IFRS 5 effects.
CAPEX (€ mn)

CCGT
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Corporate


RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: ASSET ROTATION
| Key terms of ERG Hydro disposal |
Agreement signed on August 2: Total EV: €1bn • • Total FTE involved: 114 Positive agreement with Trade Union • CPs satisfied: antitrust/golden power authorization • |
(€ mn) 1,000 |
~130 | ~110 | ~1,240 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Rationale |
• First step to achieve a pure RES W&S portfolio • Anticipate cash flow to support scale growth in RES Lower portfolio merchant exposure • • Enhancing geographical diversification |
EV paid by ENEL estimated on 1.1.2022 |
Expected(1) price adjustments (Derivatives MTM, other customary adjustments) |
Expected 2021 ERG Hydro net cashflows (accounted for in ERG's 2021 statement) |
Adj Total EV @ 31.12.2020 |
RECENT DEVELOPMENT: GROWING OUR RES PORTFOLIO

Solar
Wind
495
41 Wind
Overviewof the deal
Agreement signed on October 1
- W&S Ptf in France and Germany for 152.4MW
- Total EV: €202mn
- 2020 EBITDA: €21mn
- France: 7 solar plants with a capacity 56.7MW 3 wind farms for a 40.6MW installed capacity
- Germany: 5 wind assets with a capacity of 55.1MW
- The plants came into operation between 2013 and 2015
- Tariff system with an average expiry date of 2032
- Estimated total annual production of 273GWh: ca. 2,100heq for wind assets and ca. 1,300 heq. for solar
327
327
Ventoux: 55 Wind

OTHER RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Energy Sales / Mgmt
Securing revenues:
- Signed a 5y PPA (pay as produced) with Engie, for 55MW in France
- 144MW of wind Italian repowering awarded with a 20y tariff over the 6th RES auction

Growth in scale
A big step forward in organic development in Italy:
- 2 fully authorized projects in Italy: 1 greenfield (46.7MW) and 1 repowering (50MW)
- Both projects totaling 100MW took part in the last auction held in October 2021

Important ESG recognition:
- ERG at the top of the ISS ESG "Electric Utilities" global ranking
- Science Based Target initiative approves emissions reduction targets
- ERG among the 40 blue-chips of the MIB ESG Index of Borsa Italiana

FIRST 10 YEARS GREEN BOND
Terms & Conditions
| Issuer: | ERG S.p.A. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Format: | Senior Unsecured Green Notes | ||
| Issuer rating (Fitch): | BBB- (stable) |
||
| Expected issue rating (Fitch): | BBB | ||
| Size: | € 500m | ||
| Maturity (tenor): | 15th September 2031(10 years) |
||
| Coupon: | 0.875% | ||
| Reoffer yield: | 0.901% |
Breakdown for Investor type


• On Wednesday 8th September, ERG S.p.A. issued a new senior unsecured green bond for a € 500mn size and 10 years tenor.
Commentary
- Proceeds from the transaction will be used to finance/refinance eligible green projects under ERG's Green Bond Framework
- The bond has been carried out in the context of the € 3bn EMTN programme and represents the first time that ERG approaches the market with such a long tenor
- The final spread was set at ms+87bps, i.e. the lowest spread ever paid on any of ERG's primary issuances
Making group financial structure even more robust and efficient 8

RESULTS REVIEW
Michele Pedemonte - CFO

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Italy: Electricity Production vs Demand (TWh) Clean Spark Spread Indicator (€/MWh)
| 3Q 2020 | 3Q 2021 | Delta % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italian Electricity Demand | 81 | 84 | 3% |
| Italian Electricity Production | 75 | 72 | -4% |
| of which: |
|||
| - Thermo | 49 | 46 | -6% |
| - Hydro | 13 | 13 | -2% |
| - Solar | 8 | 8 | -2% |
| - Wind | 4 | 4 | 9% |
| - Other Sources | 1 | 1 | 0% |



3Q 2021 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION

A generalized strong scenario, better Wind in Italy, consolidation of new assets abroad, strong recovery in Hydro volumes and weaker CCGT

WIND RESULTS

A generalized better scenario, rise in volumes in Italy and new acquisition in France 12

SOLAR RESULTS

Better scenario, lower volumes in Italy offset by first solar contribution in France
HYDRO RESULTS


Strong increase of Hydro volumes EBITDA doubles YoY 14

THERMO RESULTS

Adjusted Ebitda (€ mn) Volumes (GWh)
End of White Certificates and tough market conditions for CCGT

INVESTMENTS Solar Wind Corporate Hydro CCGT M&A: 44(1) 110 367 56 23 M&A: 188(2)
Investments increase: M&A and constructions
- (1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of Trinity acquisition (which took place on February 24, 2020 for an amount of €42mn), and of Laszki acquisition (which took place on March 5, 2020) amounting to €2mn
- (2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of the recent Wind acquisition in Sweden (which took place on May 10, 2021 for an amount of €41mn), and of Joran Wind and Solar acquisition in France (which took place on June 24, 2021) amounting to €147mn

KEY FINANCIALS
Note: 18 figures based on NO GAAP measures
| te: figures based on NO GAAP measures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | Euro millions | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400 | 362 | Adjusted EBITDA | 119 | 99 |
| (204) | (224) | Amortization and depreciation |
(69) | (74) |
| 196 | 139 | Adjusted EBIT | 50 | 25 |
| (23) | (38) | Net financial income (expenses) |
(7) | (13) |
| 0 | 0 | Net income (loss) from equity investments |
0 | 0 |
| 173 | 101 | Adjusted Results before taxes | 42 | 12 |
| (42) | (20) | Income taxes |
(11) | (3) |
| 131 | 81 | Adjusted Results for the period | 31 | 10 |
| (2) | (2) | Minority interests |
(1) | (1) |
| 130 | 79 | Adjusted Net Profit | 30 | 9 |
| 24% | 20% | Tax Rate | 26% | 22% |

ADJUSTED P&L


9M 2021 CASH FLOW STATEMENT


2021 GUIDANCE
Paolo Merli - CEO

2021 GUIDANCE

Revised upwards to reflect stronger business environment and investments

APPENDIX

9M 2021 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION

Strong recovery in Hydro volumes and weaker CCGT Wind abroad down vs extraordinary 9M 2020

3Q 2021 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(1) It refers to MtM future derivatives to be transferred to ENEL as a price adjustment

ENERGY PORTFOLIO


Total 9M 2021 Production: 5.7TWh Total Energy Portfolio including hedging & other sales: 10.6TWh 25

WIND KEY FIGURES (1/2)
| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,025 | 1,967 | Installed capacity (end-period, MW) | 2,025 | 1,967 |
| of which: |
||||
| 1 093 , |
1 093 , |
- Italy | 1 093 , |
1 093 , |
| 455 | 397 | - France | 455 | 397 |
| 272 | 272 | - Germany | 272 | 272 |
| 82 | 82 | - Poland | 82 | 82 |
| 70 | 70 | - Romania | 70 | 70 |
| 54 | 54 | - Bulgaria | 54 | 54 |
| 2,696 | 2,883 | Electricity Production (GWh) | 702 | 674 |
| of which: |
||||
| 1 454 , |
1 416 , |
- Italy | 384 | 355 |
| 588 | 679 | - France | 153 | 146 |
| 279 | 344 | - Germany | 71 | 70 |
| 142 | 179 | - Poland | 36 | 37 |
| 131 | 149 | - Romania | 32 | 40 |
| 102 | 114 | - Bulgaria | 26 | 26 |


WIND KEY FIGURES (2/2)
| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | Euro millions | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unitary Revenues (€/MWh): | ||||
| 128 | 120 | - Italy | 140 | 122 |
| 89 | 89 | - France | 89 | 88 |
| 102 | 97 | - Germany | 118 | 95 |
| 86 | 76 | - Poland | 94 | 89 |
| 91 | 54 | - Romania | 121 | 58 |
| 88 | 62 | - Bulgaria | 121 | 66 |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | ||||
| 145 | 125 | - Italy | 40 | 28 |
| 29 | 41 | - France | 6 | 6 |
| 15 | 21 | - Germany | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | - Poland | 2 | 2 |
| 10 | 6 | - Romania | 3 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | - Bulgaria | 3 | 1 |
| (2) | (1) | - UK | (1) | (0) |
| 214 | 208 | Total Adjusted EBITDA | 57 | 42 |
| (116) | (125) | Depreciation | (40) | (42) |
| 98 | 83 | Adjusted EBIT | 17 | 0 |

SOLAR KEY FIGURES
| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | Euro millions | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) | ||||
| 334 | 315 | - Italy | 346 | 321 |
| 82 | n.a. | - France | 82 | n.a. |
| 195 | 196 | Electricity Prodution (GWh) | 81 | 76 |
| 57 | 57 | Adjusted EBITDA | 24 | 23 |
| (31) | (31) | Depreciation | (10) | (10) |
| 27 | 26 | Adjusted EBIT | 13 | 13 |


HYDRO KEY FIGURES
| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | Euro millions | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 111 | Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) | 135 | 120 |
| 1,323 | 778 | Electricity Prodution (GWh) | 325 | 225 |
| 117 | 58 | Adjusted EBITDA | 34 | 18 |
| (33) | (43) | Depreciation | (11) | (14) |
| 85 | 15 | Adjusted EBIT | 23 | 3 |


THERMO KEY FIGURES

| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | Euro millions | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 34 | Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) | 35 | 40 |
| 1,509 | 1,824 | Electricity Prodution (GWh) | 459 | 694 |
| 23 | 51 | Adjusted EBITDA | 8 | 21 |
| (22) | (22) | Depreciation | (8) | (7) |
| 0 | 29 | Adjusted EBIT | (0) | 13 |

(3) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of the recent Joran Solar acquisition in France (which took place on June 24, 2021) amounting to €23mn
| 9M 2021 | 9M 2020 | Euro millions | 3Q 2021 | 3Q 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) 325 |
(2) 90 |
Wind | 48 | 19 |
| (3) 24 |
2 | Solar | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hydro | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | 13 | CCGT | 6 | 1 |
| 1 | 1 | Corporate | 0 | 0 |
| 367 | 110 | Total | 56 | 23 |

INVESTMENTS
amounting to €2mn
