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ERG Investor Presentation 2021

Nov 12, 2021

4235_ir_2021-11-12_e3ec50f6-8df7-4eb7-af65-957e8d3adda7.pdf

Investor Presentation

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3Q AND 9M 2021 RESULTS

Paolo Merli - CEO

12 November 2021

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

AGENDA

3Q 2021 Highlights

- Key Figures

  • Recent Developments

Results Review

  • Business Environment
  • 3Q 2021 Group EBITDA
  • Results by Segments

Key Financials

  • Profit & Loss
  • Investments
  • Cash Flow Statement
  • 2021 Guidance and Conclusions
  • Appendix

HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES

9M 2020 9M 2021 3Q 2020 3Q 2021 (1) Adjusted means net of special items and IFRS 16, IFRS9 plus IFRS 5 effects.

CAPEX (€ mn)

CCGT

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Corporate

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: ASSET ROTATION

Key terms
of ERG
Hydro
disposal
Agreement
signed
on
August
2:
Total
EV:
€1bn


Total
FTE
involved:
114
Positive
agreement
with
Trade
Union

CPs
satisfied:
antitrust/golden
power
authorization
(€ mn)
1,000
~130 ~110 ~1,240
Strategic
Rationale

First
step
to
achieve
a
pure
RES
W&S
portfolio

Anticipate
cash
flow
to
support
scale
growth
in
RES
Lower
portfolio
merchant
exposure


Enhancing
geographical
diversification
EV paid by ENEL
estimated on
1.1.2022
Expected(1)
price
adjustments (Derivatives
MTM, other customary
adjustments)
Expected 2021 ERG
Hydro net cashflows
(accounted for in
ERG's 2021
statement)
Adj
Total EV @
31.12.2020

RECENT DEVELOPMENT: GROWING OUR RES PORTFOLIO

Solar

Wind

495

41 Wind

Overviewof the deal

Agreement signed on October 1

  • W&S Ptf in France and Germany for 152.4MW
  • Total EV: €202mn
  • 2020 EBITDA: €21mn
  • France: 7 solar plants with a capacity 56.7MW 3 wind farms for a 40.6MW installed capacity
  • Germany: 5 wind assets with a capacity of 55.1MW
  • The plants came into operation between 2013 and 2015
  • Tariff system with an average expiry date of 2032
  • Estimated total annual production of 273GWh: ca. 2,100heq for wind assets and ca. 1,300 heq. for solar

327

327

Ventoux: 55 Wind

OTHER RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Energy Sales / Mgmt

Securing revenues:

  • Signed a 5y PPA (pay as produced) with Engie, for 55MW in France
  • 144MW of wind Italian repowering awarded with a 20y tariff over the 6th RES auction

Growth in scale

A big step forward in organic development in Italy:

  • 2 fully authorized projects in Italy: 1 greenfield (46.7MW) and 1 repowering (50MW)
  • Both projects totaling 100MW took part in the last auction held in October 2021

Important ESG recognition:

  • ERG at the top of the ISS ESG "Electric Utilities" global ranking
  • Science Based Target initiative approves emissions reduction targets
  • ERG among the 40 blue-chips of the MIB ESG Index of Borsa Italiana

FIRST 10 YEARS GREEN BOND

Terms & Conditions

Issuer: ERG S.p.A.
Format: Senior Unsecured Green Notes
Issuer rating (Fitch): BBB-
(stable)
Expected issue rating (Fitch): BBB
Size: € 500m
Maturity (tenor): 15th
September 2031(10 years)
Coupon: 0.875%
Reoffer yield: 0.901%

Breakdown for Investor type

• On Wednesday 8th September, ERG S.p.A. issued a new senior unsecured green bond for a € 500mn size and 10 years tenor.

Commentary

  • Proceeds from the transaction will be used to finance/refinance eligible green projects under ERG's Green Bond Framework
  • The bond has been carried out in the context of the € 3bn EMTN programme and represents the first time that ERG approaches the market with such a long tenor
  • The final spread was set at ms+87bps, i.e. the lowest spread ever paid on any of ERG's primary issuances

Making group financial structure even more robust and efficient 8

RESULTS REVIEW

Michele Pedemonte - CFO

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Italy: Electricity Production vs Demand (TWh) Clean Spark Spread Indicator (€/MWh)

3Q 2020 3Q 2021 Delta %
Italian Electricity Demand 81 84 3%
Italian Electricity Production 75 72 -4%
of
which:
- Thermo 49 46 -6%
- Hydro 13 13 -2%
- Solar 8 8 -2%
- Wind 4 4 9%
- Other Sources 1 1 0%

3Q 2021 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION

A generalized strong scenario, better Wind in Italy, consolidation of new assets abroad, strong recovery in Hydro volumes and weaker CCGT

WIND RESULTS

A generalized better scenario, rise in volumes in Italy and new acquisition in France 12

SOLAR RESULTS

Better scenario, lower volumes in Italy offset by first solar contribution in France

HYDRO RESULTS

Strong increase of Hydro volumes EBITDA doubles YoY 14

THERMO RESULTS

Adjusted Ebitda (€ mn) Volumes (GWh)

End of White Certificates and tough market conditions for CCGT

INVESTMENTS Solar Wind Corporate Hydro CCGT M&A: 44(1) 110 367 56 23 M&A: 188(2)

Investments increase: M&A and constructions

  • (1) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of Trinity acquisition (which took place on February 24, 2020 for an amount of €42mn), and of Laszki acquisition (which took place on March 5, 2020) amounting to €2mn
  • (2) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of the recent Wind acquisition in Sweden (which took place on May 10, 2021 for an amount of €41mn), and of Joran Wind and Solar acquisition in France (which took place on June 24, 2021) amounting to €147mn

KEY FINANCIALS

Note: 18 figures based on NO GAAP measures

te: figures based on NO GAAP measures
9M 2021 9M 2020 Euro millions 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
400 362 Adjusted EBITDA 119 99
(204) (224) Amortization
and
depreciation
(69) (74)
196 139 Adjusted EBIT 50 25
(23) (38) Net
financial
income
(expenses)
(7) (13)
0 0 Net
income
(loss)
from
equity
investments
0 0
173 101 Adjusted Results before taxes 42 12
(42) (20) Income
taxes
(11) (3)
131 81 Adjusted Results for the period 31 10
(2) (2) Minority
interests
(1) (1)
130 79 Adjusted Net Profit 30 9
24% 20% Tax Rate 26% 22%

ADJUSTED P&L

9M 2021 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

2021 GUIDANCE

Paolo Merli - CEO

2021 GUIDANCE

Revised upwards to reflect stronger business environment and investments

APPENDIX

9M 2021 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION

Strong recovery in Hydro volumes and weaker CCGT Wind abroad down vs extraordinary 9M 2020

3Q 2021 CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(1) It refers to MtM future derivatives to be transferred to ENEL as a price adjustment

ENERGY PORTFOLIO

Total 9M 2021 Production: 5.7TWh Total Energy Portfolio including hedging & other sales: 10.6TWh 25

WIND KEY FIGURES (1/2)

9M 2021 9M 2020 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
2,025 1,967 Installed capacity (end-period, MW) 2,025 1,967
of
which:
1
093
,
1
093
,
- Italy 1
093
,
1
093
,
455 397 - France 455 397
272 272 - Germany 272 272
82 82 - Poland 82 82
70 70 - Romania 70 70
54 54 - Bulgaria 54 54
2,696 2,883 Electricity Production (GWh) 702 674
of
which:
1
454
,
1
416
,
- Italy 384 355
588 679 - France 153 146
279 344 - Germany 71 70
142 179 - Poland 36 37
131 149 - Romania 32 40
102 114 - Bulgaria 26 26

WIND KEY FIGURES (2/2)

9M 2021 9M 2020 Euro millions 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
Unitary Revenues (€/MWh):
128 120 - Italy 140 122
89 89 - France 89 88
102 97 - Germany 118 95
86 76 - Poland 94 89
91 54 - Romania 121 58
88 62 - Bulgaria 121 66
Adjusted EBITDA:
145 125 - Italy 40 28
29 41 - France 6 6
15 21 - Germany 3 3
8 11 - Poland 2 2
10 6 - Romania 3 2
7 6 - Bulgaria 3 1
(2) (1) - UK (1) (0)
214 208 Total Adjusted EBITDA 57 42
(116) (125) Depreciation (40) (42)
98 83 Adjusted EBIT 17 0

SOLAR KEY FIGURES

9M 2021 9M 2020 Euro millions 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
Unitary Revenues (€/MWh)
334 315 - Italy 346 321
82 n.a. - France 82 n.a.
195 196 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 81 76
57 57 Adjusted EBITDA 24 23
(31) (31) Depreciation (10) (10)
27 26 Adjusted EBIT 13 13

HYDRO KEY FIGURES

9M 2021 9M 2020 Euro millions 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
112 111 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 135 120
1,323 778 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 325 225
117 58 Adjusted EBITDA 34 18
(33) (43) Depreciation (11) (14)
85 15 Adjusted EBIT 23 3

THERMO KEY FIGURES

9M 2021 9M 2020 Euro millions 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
31 34 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 35 40
1,509 1,824 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 459 694
23 51 Adjusted EBITDA 8 21
(22) (22) Depreciation (8) (7)
0 29 Adjusted EBIT (0) 13

(3) M&A CAPEX related to the closing of the recent Joran Solar acquisition in France (which took place on June 24, 2021) amounting to €23mn

9M 2021 9M 2020 Euro millions 3Q 2021 3Q 2020
(1)
325
(2)
90
Wind 48 19
(3)
24
2 Solar 0 1
4 4 Hydro 1 2
13 13 CCGT 6 1
1 1 Corporate 0 0
367 110 Total 56 23

INVESTMENTS

amounting to €2mn