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Enel — Investor Presentation 2023
Nov 22, 2023
4317_ip_2023-11-22_8f1d5a44-d4ba-48be-b554-e963463dbaaa.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Agenda

Flavio Cattaneo, CEO
The Group in the energy context
2024-26 Strategic Plan
- 2024-26 Strategic Plan
- The Group in the next three years

Stefano De Angelis, CFO
- Capital allocation and EBITDA growth
- Efficiencies, streamlining & cash flow generation
2024-26 Strategic Plan
- The financial plan
- Net Income growth
- Targets

Flavio Cattaneo, CEO
Closing remarks

Flavio Cattaneo CEO


The Group in the energy context

A rapidly changing macro environment with hawkish monetary policies to address inflationary trends…



- IEA, Electricity Market Report, 2023; 2.Historical values (source: Bloomberg), Enel's internal elaboration for future; 3. Average value for Italy, Spain and USA from BNEF's LCOE database
…though not impacting the medium-term direction…

- Eurostat energy balances for historical data; Enel's internal elaboration for future values 2. Terna (Italy), Enel's internal elaboration based on Red Electrica data (Spain) 3. Terna (Italy) and Red Electrica (Spain) for historical data; Enel's internal elaboration for future values 4.Historical values (source: Bloomberg), Enel's internal elaboration for future values
6
…triggering long-term trends emerging stronger…


- Increase investments in grids to improve quality, resiliency and to accommodate connection requests
- Focus on countries with favorable regulatory frameworks that allow a fair remuneration
- Increase investments in BESS to compensate renewables' intermittency
Regulated business Emission-free generation Sales to customers
- Select investments based on a weighted risk-reward matrix diversified by country and technology
- Concentrate investments in countries/techs with stable and secured IRR-WACC spread
-
Leverage on partnerships
-
Maximize value of our large customers' portfolio
- Increase efficiency and effectiveness in customers acquisition and customer care
- Lead customers towards a more electrified world with no disruptions
Flexible sourcing approach to grab opportunities from make and buy strategy
Value driven approach in an integrated company with efficiency and effectiveness supporting competitiveness and enhancing results and delivery

2024-26 Strategic Plan

The strategic pillars
Profitability, flexibility and resiliency

Selective capital allocation to maximize riskreturn profile while enhancing flexibility and resiliency of the Group

Cost discipline, leaner organization and processes, clear accountability with focus on core geographies and activities to maximize cash generation and compensate for inflationary dynamics and rising cost of capital
Sustainability
Capital
allocation
1
3
Financial and environmental sustainability
Financial and environmental sustainability, pursuing value creation while addressing the challenges of climate change
A value driven sustainable business model built to seize opportunities coming from an ever-changing context

Enel's key drivers of capital allocation…



…are designed to minimize the impact on debt…


- 6.1 €bn includes: ~4 €bn cash-in from capacity to be built over the plan and ~ 2 €bn from already existing capacity

…improving returns and their predictability



Grids investments to be supported by an adequate profitability


Key Drivers
Regulatory Advocacy
Leverage on regulatory frameworks that grant an appropriate remuneration to investments
Quality
Grant high quality standards to customers coupling with lower energy losses aiming at improving profitability
Asset base optimization Improvement of grid portfolio to maximize RAB growth and value

Renewables investments to be selected only if value accretive

Key Drivers
- Reduction of LCOE Continuous optimization of unitary capex and opex
- Risk-reward profile improvements Investments to be selected according to a risk-reward matrix differentiated by technologies and geographies
Innovation
Focus on repowering and BESS to improve system flexibility and load management
Partnerships
Leveraging on third parties' contribution

Customers investments to maximise clients' engagement and satisfaction

Key Drivers
- Geographical rebalancing: focus on Italy, Iberia and Latam
- Customer centricity: single touch point for B2C and SMEs; Key account manager for Top & Large commodity and services
- Bundle offering and cross selling leveraging on improved customer experience
- Prioritize products that can accelerate electrification, promote customer loyalty and increase marginality
- Process optimization to drive efficiencies on customer acquisition and management

A solid cash generation able to cover investments and dividends…



…supported by a renewed focus on addressable cash costs


Financial sustainability



Environmental sustainability


Paris Agreement (1.5°C pathway) SBTi certification for 2030 and 2040 emission reduction targets across all scopes


The Group in the next three years

A strong operating positioning in 2026…

Enhancing grids' quality and resiliency amidst supportive and visible regulatory frameworks
A growing renewable platform centered on flexibility and profitability
A highly electrified customer base served with efficiency and effectiveness
- Core countries; 2. It includes consolidated capacity (ownership and partnership), capacity under stewardship model and BESS; 3. It includes managed production
…reflected into our Plan's targets


0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 ~5% ~8% 7% 8% Minimum Maximum Strong commitment to maintain an appealing and sustainable shareholders' remuneration 2023 2024 2025 2026 Dividend policy Total Shareholder Return Dividend Yield1 Earnings CAGR ~12% ~16% up-to 70% pay-out if cash flows neutrality is achieved FLOOR

Stefano de Angelis CFO


Capital allocation and EBITDA growth


Capital allocation optimized based on a country/business matrix approach…

| Integration | Grids | Generation | Customers |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage | Need to accelerate grid upgrades Investments supported by higher and predictable returns |
Fully integrated business model Renewables growth natural hedge with customer base |
Fully liberalized retail market Bundled commercial offerings targeting loyalty and sustainable LT profitability |
| Grids | Generation | Customers | |
| Growing demand for network quality and resiliency Capex deployment to be coupled with fair and predictable returns |
High exposure to hydrology Limited private PPA market Hedging with Large Industrial customers |
Regulated B2C and SMEs limit growth of integrated model Liberalization going forward as unique opportunity |
|
| Grids | Generation | Customers | |
| Inefficient infrastructure with congestion issues, not yet addressed by Authorities, affecting Generation profitability |
Renewables development supported by tax incentives Merchant risk exposure shrinking investment returns |
Limited industrial and geographical integration, to be offset by competitive hedging differentiation and efficiency |

…rebalancing results to maximize profitability and cash generated: EBITDA from Europe >70%

Shift of capital allocation from GW expansion to risk- weighted EBITDA conversion backed by sustainable value creation
- Split does not include ''Other''

Grids: key drivers of value creation
29
Gross Capex (€bn)
Capex recognition N+1 Connections: 65% upfront 35% in RAB Yearly inflation adjustment
Italy Spain
Capex recognition N+2 Connections: 85% upfront 15% in RAB Latam

Capex recognition: beginning of the following cycle in Brazil & Chile. No time lag in Colombia
Connections c. 95%: RAB for Brazil & Colombia, tariff recognition in Chile Yearly inflation adjustment


5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0
Grids: EBITDA evolution


Plan (€bn)

- Increased Cash Cost allocation on Networks supports EBITDA expansion
- Key Regulatory variables as main drivers (WACC & Regulation)
- Re-focus on Latam grids

Renewables: key drivers of value creation
- Repowering aimed at improving sourcing mix
- Operational control of BESS projects
- Hedged by solid customer base
Europe Latin America North America
- Risk weighted RES development and opportunistic PPA sourcing
- Sales heavily skewed towards T&L
2.6
2024-26
2023E 2026 16 19
5.3
2021-23 Pro Forma
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
- Priority shifted from size to cash generation on the entire asset portfolio
- New capacity: self-funded, hedged and de-risked




- Consolidated capacity. It includes BESS.
New capacity: different business models to enhance returns and expand optionality
ENEL STAKE
1 2 3


32

0.0
5.0
10. 0
15. 0
20. 0
25. 0
30. 0
Pipeline size and maturity enable a low-risk and profitable growth


- higher investment return and full eligibility in terms of hedging/risk assessment
- Value crystallization of pipeline:
- non-core geographies
- core countries with limited fitting with the targeted risk/return level
- Non-core countries: focus on actionable and relevant asset development and profit-driven projects. Limited capital at risk balanced by stewardship model

Integrated business: key drivers of value creation
90.0 100.0
- Increased renewables production to improve cost of sourcing
- Optimized customer portfolio to shorten long customer position

- Sales fully hedged and lock-in of profitability of existing portfolio
- Scale in wholesale sourcing drives further growth potential
30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Financial sustainability of renewables segment as key priority

Emission free production

90.0 100.0
100% coverage through own
production and PPA 100% coverage

30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
Emission free production Emission free production

Integrated business: key drivers of value creation (cont'd)
35 Spain Italy 129 115 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 2023E 2026 Spot price (€/MWh) >30% ~35% Total sales mix 2026 77 TWh 2026 74 TWh +6 pp vs 2023 +3 pp vs 2023 Margin drivers B2C -11% 96 74 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 2023E 2026 -23% Fixed sales coverage ~50% ~70% 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 2023E 2026 +20pp ~75% ~90% 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2023E 2026 +15pp Fixed sales mix >45% >50% 2026 34 TWh 2026 53 TWh +5 pp vs 2023 +3 pp vs 2023


5.0 7.0 9.0 11. 0 13. 0 15. 0 17. 0 19. 0
Integrated business: EBITDA evolution


RENEWABLES
Growing EBITDA contribution driven by increasing weight of renewable capacity
FROM CONVENTIONAL GENERATION…
Normalization of commodity market reduces portfolio exposure and trading opportunities. Coal progressive phase-out
…TO FLEXIBLE GENERATION
Act as a sustainable provider of the required flexible generation to support energy transition and system security
CUSTOMERS
Potential margin pressure from decreasing power prices in Europe balanced by:
- a multi-segment offers differentiation coupled with tailored integrated solutions;
- digitalization to boost efficiency and effectiveness in customer operations

Efficiencies, streamlining & cash flow generation

- Addressable costs exclude grids regulated Totex and new generation asset development; 2. Rounded figures
Efficiency as a binding attitude to balance increase in cost of capital

1 €bn cost efficiencies or ~15% reduction on addressable cost baseline
1 2 3
- Additional +0.2 €bn on nonregulated networks overheads
- No-interest bearing source of capital re-invested at double digit returns
- Supporting hedge to long-term profitability of integrated margin

2022
0.0



Over-delivering on a re-engineered disposal plan…


2023 M&A almost in line with old plan assumptions, over-delivering thanks to better valuation multiples and new originations

…with sound progresses on M&A



The financial plan


Reducing cost and risk profile of our gross debt…

- It excludes other financial expenses; 2. It includes USD and Latam currencies

…and a cost-effective solid liquidity position to minimize exposure to market volatility

Short term flexibility thanks to M&A cash-in coupled with low refinancing needs (H1 2024).
- Ample liquidity available covers 1.3 times debt maturities in the 24-25. Focus on cost effective mix between Committed Credit Lines and Cash.
- Low level of yearly refinancing on average gross debt versus last three years.

Net Income growth

Net Ordinary Income

5.8-6.1 ~3 (0.7) 0.3 (0.6) (0.6) 7.1-7.3 2023E Baseline into 2024 EBITDA D&A Financial charges Taxes Minorities 2026 Group net ordinary income evolution (€bn) ~6% CAGR1
Sound EBITDA growth drives earnings evolution, 2023-2026 Net income CAGR ~6%
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10. 0

Targets

Plan's targets: focus on 2024



Closing remarks

A glimpse on the future
This gravity-powered battery could be the future of energy storage The Architect's Newspaper
Space-based solar power is a possible alternative energy source The New York Times
Only genuinely clean hydrogen can help solve the climate crisis The Guardian
Small Modular reactors: transitioning from novel technology to commercial success Power Engineering International
Generation IV, the future of nuclear power New Atlas
Autonomous robots gaining traction with solar installers PV Magazine
Enel will continue to innovate, monitoring trends that are going to shape the future
Disclaimer

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's management's current views with respect to future events and financial and operational performance of the Company and its subsidiaries. These forward-looking statements are based on Enel S.p.A.'s current expectations and projections about future events. Because these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, actual future results or performance may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements due to any number of different factors, many of which are beyond the ability of Enel S.p.A. to control or estimate precisely, including changes in the regulatory environment, future market developments, fluctuations in the price and availability of fuel and other risks. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements contained herein, which are made only as of the date of this presentation. Enel S.p.A. does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. The information contained in this presentation does not purport to be comprehensive and has not been independently verified by any independent third party.
This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. This presentation does not contain an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities issued by Enel S.p.A. or any of its subsidiaries.
Pursuant to art. 154-bis, paragraph 2, of the Italian Unified Financial Act of February 24, 1998, the executive in charge of preparing the corporate accounting documents at Enel, Stefano De Angelis, declares that the accounting information contained herein correspond to document results, books and accounting records.
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