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Elmera Group ASA — Investor Presentation 2021
Feb 19, 2021
3591_rns_2021-02-19_24705792-d7a7-4acb-8f40-17d08edbecb0.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Today's agenda
| Start | Finish | Time (min) | Subject | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 09:25 | 25 | 1. CEO state of the union | Rolf Barmen |
| 09:25 | 09:50 | 25 | 2. Regulations and M&A | Arnstein Flaskerud |
| 09:50 | 10:00 | 10 | Break | |
| 10:00 | 10:25 | 25 | 3. Consumer segment | Christian Kalvenes |
| 10:25 | 10:40 | 15 | 4. Business segment | Roger Finnanger |
| 10:40 | 10:55 | 15 | 5. Nordic expansion | Per Heiberg-Andersen |
| 10:55 | 11:05 | 10 | 7. New financial targets | Ole Johan Langenes |
| 11:05 | 11:25 | 20 | Q&A |
CEO STATE OF THE UNION
Rolf Barmen (CEO)
19th February
Today's presenters and Fjordkraft management team
Today's presenters Broader management
Rolf Barmen Chief Executive Officer
Arnstein Flaskerud EVP - Head of Strategy and M&A
Per Heiberg-Andersen EVP - Nordic
Roger Finnanger EVP - Head of Business
Alf Kåre Hjartnes EVP - Head of Technology and Digitalisation
Solfrid Aase EVP – Service Companies
Solfrid Andersen EVP - Head of Operations
Birte Strander Chief Financial Officer (on maternity leave)
Fjordkraft at a glance – a Nordic electricity retailer with the leading position in the Norwegian market and significant growth potential in Sweden and Finland
Number of deliveries across all segments, including ~60k deliveries in Extended Alliance Number of deliveries and subscribers at the end of Q4 2020
A highly successful strategy execution has resulted in an impressive profitability shift and net revenue growth
Source: Company information
1) NGAAP until 2015, IFRS for 2016 and 2017. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 excluding estimate deviations, other gains & losses, special items and depreciation of acquisitions
A highly fragmented Nordic market – Fjordkraft with a proven ability and ambition to be the consolidator
Finland
| efortum | oomi | VÄRE | Laketa | loiste | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (CC) ECTIMAAN ENERGIA Fortum |
Oomi | EL SANKO Vaatan Salati |
Ľ, Gords: Colean Elsany |
Campbell tamperoon Sind Gallery |
Kymenteskom Sinki | |
| WELEN | VATTENFALL | متعدد LUMME ENERGIA Lumme Energia |
RSC ENTICAL KS& Energia SPKS |
P Forscore emergia Ø kroean Hergia |
teinapien Energia 63 GRII Energy |
Energiamyand Britishham Seudun Saha |
| Helen | Vattenfall | TURKU ENERGIA Interfaces |
Publish Kartatan SHAAN |
۰ Lietman SHARFORNS € Kokkolan Energía |
Notwin | Nivos Despite Desable The Sellate Energia |
Sources: Company information
The European electricity market is transitioning towards a greener energy mix, with Norway as the clear renewable leader
Source: 1) NVE's long-term power market analysis, October 2020
A robust business model – long term profitability independent of electricity price level
Net revenue adj. and elspot prices1,2
According to NVE's forecast, the long term Norwegian electricity price is expected at around NOK 40 øre/kWh over the next 20 years, but might vary significantly in the short term due to i.a. variations in weather
The transition towards more renewable energy is expected to reduce flexible production by 30% over the next 20 years
Increased demand for risk mitigating products across all segments, driven by higher elspot volatility
Source:
1) NordPool's yearly system prices in NOK
2) NGAAP until 2015, IFRS for 2016 and 2017. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 excluding estimate deviations, other gains & losses, special items and depreciation of acquisitions
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
A pan-Nordic and complex power market handled through clear mandates and strict governance
Several wholesale markets
- the day-ahead market
- the intraday market
- the balancing market
Several bidding areas due to grid congestions
• Larger players get a natural diversification to local price risk
COGS mainly affected by these elements
- The price of electricity within the different price areas
- The price of guarantees of origins
- The price of electricity certificates
- Various trading fees
- Accuracy of consumption estimates
- Purchasing strategy
Fjordkraft has a low risk tolerance with clear mandates and strict governance
Operating in the highly attractive Nordic market with a stable demand profile and growth potential from increased electrification
Electricity consumption in the Nordics (TWh)1
Source: 1) NVE's long-term power market analysis, October 2020
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
Geographic expansion – the natural step after becoming the largest retailer in Norway
Two acquisitions of high strategic importance completed in 2020, supporting a diversified multi-brand strategy
Targeting further growth over the next years
Roadmap for growth 2021-2023
We continue our sustainability commitment through "Klimanjaro" and "Klimahub"
Fjordkraft – Summary investment highlights
| 6 | Attractive financial profile with a high cash conversion and limited capital expenditure requirements |
|---|---|
| 5 | Strong competitive advantages and a robust platform for further organic and bolt-on acquisition driven growth across the Nordics |
| 4 | Unmatched platform for distribution and digital ecosystem provides best in class service offering to consumer and business customers |
| 3 | A diversified multi-brand strategy with Fjordkraft as the spearhead and the no. 1 retail brand in Norway |
| 2 | A proven business model providing 'need to have' electricity combined with sought after value-added services - supporting differentiation and margin robustness |
| 1 | Operating in the attractive Nordic electricity retailing market with a stable demand profile and a regulatory environment levelling the playing field, beneficial to pure play retailers |
REGULATORY DRIVERS AND CONSOLIDATION
Arnstein Flaskerud (EVP Head of Strategy and M&A)
19th February 2021
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
The green shift facilitating new business opportunities
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
Building both linear business models and platform business models
- Sells products and services to end users
- Owns one side of the transaction
- The value creation lies in the product
Collects value from products and services
- Facilitates transactions between the participants
- Owns the infrastructure that facilitates the transactions
- Collects value from network effects
Collects value from the platform users
REGULATIONS
Substantial changes in the regulatory environment in Norway materialising in 2021
Unbundling of vertically integrated companies and separation of the end user business and monopoly activities
Digitalisation of the industry. Smart meters and Elhub streamlining processes between all the players
The EU Clean Energy Package supporting the EU targets for 2030. Important elements:
- Energy performance in buildings directive
- Energy Efficiency directive
- Electricity directive with consumer empowerment and protection
- Electricity Regulation ensuring a well-functioning wholesale electricity market
Norway - regulatory developments providing significant opportunities for large independent retailers
Regulatory milestones in Norway
- Vertically integrated companies need to split grid operations and retail operations within the following areas:
- ICT infrastructure
- Corporate grid and retail must be split into separate companies
- Functional split all companies with more than 10K deliveries must split processes
Unbundling Unbundling of brand name and New Grid Fee models
2020 - 2021 2022 - 2023
- Unbundling of brand name
-
New Grid fee models where the grid companies have flexibility to design their own tariffs – Time of use and other models
-
Significant loss of competitive advantage for (regional/local) players
- Significant positive effects for independent retail companies with existing strong national brands such as Fjordkraft
- Fueling the uptake of concepts like the Extended Alliance concept we offer
Sources: Company information
| Capital Markets Day | 2021 21
- Level playing field and economies of scale in all processes
- The Regulator has changed their view on mandatory power tariff, and allows different approaches, including Time of use models, also to the Consumer market
Certification of electricity retailers leading to increased standardisation and a more level playing field
"Trygg Strømhandel"
- Certification of electricity retailers initiated by associations of energy companies in Norway
- The ambition of Trygg Strømhandel is to:
- Help customers navigate safely among the many electricity retailers in Norway
- Increase quality in the sales processes
- Increase customer satisfaction
- The certification is voluntary and open for all retailers
Mobile market - new regulations betters the opportunities for the independent service providers
Regulatory milestones in Norway
2017 - 2019 2020 - 2022
- Telenor is obliged to provide access and call origination to other mobile operators
- No discrimination regarding price or technology
-
Margin squeeze tests bi-annually to evaluate Telenor's pricing scheme
-
This has led to several price reductions to our wholesale procurement
-
Still unbalanced rules highly favoring the network operators
-
New market regulation is now published from the regulator
- Modelling player in the margin squeeze test is reduced from 5% to 3% market share
- Telenor are mandated to provide bulk price model, but they have made a formal complaint about this
- More balanced regulations in theory
- Gives the service provider a better range of tools to innovate and gives the customers better solutions
- Leads to more robust service provider business models
- Telenor and the other two network operators fight the new regulation, and the final verdict might not come until Q2-21
Sources: Company information
MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS
M&A results in 2020 - overperforming substantially
Completed transactions in 2020
Innlandskraft AS ~240k customers
- The acquisition made Fjordkraft the largest player in the Norwegian market
- Gudbrandsdal Energi will continue as a separate fighting company and brand while the Eidsiva Marked brand will be rebranded to Fjordkraft
- After this transaction, the timing for proactively seeking new markets was good
Nordic Green Energy ~165k customers
- Located in Sweden and Finland, with a combined market share of ~2%
- Nordic Green Energy is used as brand
- The transaction is strategically important and is the first step towards establishing Fjordkraft as a Nordic player
The Electricity market in Norway, Sweden and Finland
Market assessments
- All markets have the same structure with few large players, some medium players, and many small players
- In Norway, two players have around 50 percent of the market, while in Sweden and Finland, four to five players share around 50 percent of the market
- The consolidation in Norway leads the way, and Fjordkraft is now the biggest player in Norway closely followed by Fortum
- We se that the markets are becoming more similar and the competition becomes increasingly pan-Nordic
- All three markets are fragmented and are facing further consolidation
Sources: Company information
Main drivers for consolidation
| Driver | Description | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory changes | Significant loss of competitive advantage for regional/local players | ||
| Merging of grid companies | Consolidation in other parts of the value chain is supporting a more horizontal structure |
||
| Competition and scale | Incumbents are rigged for local competition – lack of scale will lower market share and profitability |
||
| Technological development | Increasing technological debt due to digitalisation of all processes in addition to higher customer expectations and VAS competition |
Fjordkraft is well positioned as the consolidator
Scale and financial power
Cost synergies
The Fjordkraft Factory and platform, our system and process architecture, enables significant scale and synergies
Offers scale through industrial partnership, as an attractive alternative strategy to regional players
Financial power and listed shares as an attractive acquisition currency - offers the prospects the opportunity to stay exposed to the downstream part of the value chain
System and process architecture
Key highlights from regulations and M&A
| 1 | We expect that M&A activities will fulfill a major part of our Roadmap to Growth |
|---|---|
| 2 | EU regulations in the electricity market are supporting Fjordkraft's growth strategy, although it takes more time in Sweden and Finland |
| 3 | The electricity market is highly fragmented and provides a substantial number of attractive M&A prospects |
| 4 | Fjordkraft has the ambitions and experience to consolidate, and offers a wide range of attractive M&A alternatives |
Break Continuing at 10:00 a.m. UTC+1
CONSUMER
Christian Kalvenes (EVP Head of Consumer)
19th February
Fjordkraft is the largest player in the Norwegian consumer market, supplemented by both a strong fighting brand and a regional brand
Source: Company information, TNS Kantar, Norsk Kundebarometer
- 1) Based on market share and customer awareness data from Kantar TNS Energibarometer Q4 2020
- 2) Kantar's KS-Index January 2021
- 3) Digital Leaders 2019 by Bearingpoint
- 4) Net revenue 2020 based on IFRS unaudited figures
- 5) Number of deliveries Q4 2020
- 6) Volume delivered in 2020
- 7) Based on number of deliveries end of Q4 2020 and total market size from NVE's supplier change statistics
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
A broad core product offering and differentiating value added services enable a market leading value proposition
Spot related products
Product characteristics:
- The customer's price follows the spot price
- The customer is fully exposed to the spot price volatility
- Fixed nominal markup (some products also include trading and balancing costs) with no price risk for Fjordkraft
Attractive offering to customers
Variable products
Product characteristics:
- Discretionary pricing with a notification period of 14 days
- More steady and predictable prices for the customer
- Short term price risk within the notification period for Fjordkraft
- Protects the customers from intraday price volatility, volatility between price zones and rapid increase in the spot price
Attractive price plans, value added- and advisory services supporting competitive differentiation and margin robustness
33 Sources: Company information
The battle for customers
Our digital ecosystem offers unique customer experience
My page
EV charging app
The Fjordkraft app fjordkraft.no
New digital services embraced by customers
• The Fjordkraft app has been embraced by our customers
- About 180k unique users in 2020
- More than 30 app updates in 2020, launching new services to Fjordkraft customers every few weeks
- Users have a significantly lower churn rate and higher customer satisfaction
Digital services empowering customers
- More attractive services will be launched in the app during 2021
- Real time overview of the electricity consumption with Fjordkraft Pulse
- More EV brands ready for smart charging
- Improved smart home functionality and support
Digital marketplace launched on the 18th of January 2021
- The Fjordkraft Marketplace
- Attractive products from quality vendors
- Generates new revenue streams and increases customer loyalty
- A wide range of products compatible with the Fjordkraft app
Perfectly positioned for creating great customer experiences and extensive customer value
Attractive product offering with differentiating value added services and loyalty program,
award-winning customer service and a digital ecosystem empowering the customer
The No.1 service provider for mobile phone connectivity in the consumer market
Mobile in brief A leading market position
Fjordkraft is a service provider in the mobile consumer market with highly attractive subscription plans through Telenor's network
The No. 1 service provider for mobile phone connectivity in the consumer segment1
~130 thousand mobile subscriptions and reached the targeted 125k subscriptions in the Fjordkraft brand by year-end 2020.
1
1
1
Highly attractive pricing across all data plans
Award-winning customer service #1 2
Newly launched marketplace selling 2nd hand mobile phones
Source: Company information, NKOM, EPSI
1) NKOM ekomstastistikken
2) Kantar's KS-Index January 2021
A Consumer segment with clear competitive advantages, ready to capitalise on digitalisation
| 1 | The largest player in the Norwegian consumer market, supplemented by both a strong fighting brand and a regional brand |
|---|---|
| 2 | A broad product range with value-added services and an industry leading loyalty program |
| 3 | A digital ecosystem that offers a unique customer experience |
| 4 | The No.1 service provider for mobile phone connectivity in the consumer market, adding loyalty to the customer base |
BUSINESS
Roger Finnanger (EVP Head of Business)
19th February
A brief look at the Business segment
6500 Commercial property customers
400 Biggest supplier to public entities
4500 Agriculture & aquaculture
Source: Company information, Kantar TNS, Energibarometeret
- 1) Kantar TNS 2020
- 2) Net revenue 2020 based on IFRS unaudited figures
- 3) Equivalent to the number of deliveries to all electricity meters. One customer may have multiple electricity meters
- 4) Volume sold in 2020
- 5) Based on number of deliveries end of Q4 2020 and total market size from NVE's supplier change statistics
Competitive advantage with distribution power covering all segments with national presence
Offering the industry's most attractive product range
Business
Fjordkraft Entelios Industry Lyse Hafslund
Product characteristics:
- The customer's price follows the spot price
- The customer is fully exposed to the spot price volatility
- Fixed nominal markup with no price or volume risk for Fjordkraft
Product characteristics:
- Discretionary pricing with a notification period of 14 days
- More steady and predictable prices for the customer
- Short term price risk within the notification period for Fjordkraft
Product characteristics:
- Spot with risk management such as index hedging, fixed price, options etc.
- Hedging is mainly done backto-back, reducing Fjordkraft's risk exposure
- Attractive for businesses seeking to manage budgets through predictable electricity costs
Product characteristics:
Wide product range addressing varying risk profiles
Web-based reporting ('Min Bedrift') supporting energy usage monitoring and management
Energy as a service, Energy management and advisory services
Attractive price plans, value added- and advisory services supporting competitive differentiation and margin robustness
- Differentiating and supplementary products to our core products, enabling increased insight and control
- Includes i.a. a web-based reporting tool with energy monitoring and management functionality
- Solutions reducing emissions
Taking action on Climate change
- Sustainability initiative to demand climate neutrality towards suppliers and partners
-
Momentum for Change "Lighthouse activity"
-
Web based solution supporting implementation of climate accounting, climate initiatives and climate neutrality
- Making Climate Footprint transparent and searchable
-
Further development in progress
-
Reducing emissions by offering solar panel and heat pump solutions
- Power purchase agreement "Energy as a service"
- Long term agreements, 7-25 years
- Gives the customer low risk and predictable power costs
- Business model with low risk for Fjordkraft and our partners
-
No need for investments
-
Offering EV charging to Co owners and business
- No administration needed
- Easy cost allocation between users
-
Billing service
-
Reports on all energy sources
- Complete overview
- Control over tenants' consumption
- Distributing all energy costs
- Billing services will be launched in 2021
Becoming a pan-Nordic retailer increases attractivity among Nordic Business customers
- We signed our first cross-border customers in 2020
- We will be offering cross-border deliveries in Finland in 2021
- We will seek to establish deliveries in Denmark during 2021
A Business segment well positioned for further growth
| 1 | Strong distribution power and a market leading product offering, providing rapid market penetration on new products and services |
|---|---|
| 2 | A high brand awareness and large customer portfolio makes Fjordkraft an attractive partner for new sustainable solutions |
| 3 | New value added services, including "energy-as-a-service", strengthens Fjordkraft's position and climate commitment |
| 4 | Becoming a pan-Nordic retailer enables new opportunities for further growth |
Nordic expansion
Per Heiberg-Andersen (EVP Nordic)
February 19th, 2021
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
Fjordkraft starting pan-Nordic expansion with the acquisition of Swedish-Finnish retailer Nordic Green Energy
Source: Company information 52
Many similarities in the Nordics, but also differences
EU regulations
Common power exchanges - Nord Pool and Nasdaq Pan-Nordic power trading wholesale services Consumer behaviour and technology adaption Pan-Nordic one-stop-shopping in B2B segment Drivers for consolidation (scale)
Similarities Differences
A more diversified energy mix in SE and FI Historical power market price levels Product mix (fixed price is most common) El Hub not yet established National regulations Language and culture
Possible synergies in areas such as: Energy procurement and risk mitigation Technology platform Operations Nordic B2B cooperation Various best practices
Local approach and adjustments: Build strong national competence and management Different product mix Business processes adjustments M&A-strategy Careful developing brand strategy
The regulatory landscape
Potential through changes in regulation enabling more equal conditions
- Hub postponed no set date or expectation
-
Revision of current market processes. In the big picture, integrated companies prefer status quo, whereas the pure sales companies prefer a supplier centric model
-
Integrated companies with strong local/regional positions
- Market dynamics and some business processes will most likely continue to differ some vs. Norway
Regulatory development Sweden Regulatory development Finland
- Hub expected February 2022. Customer centric model
- Hub related changes in market processes. In big picture integrated companies prefer status quo, but likely to support direction towards more horizontal structure
- Integrated companies with strong local/regional positions
- Possible added synergies Norway-Finland in business process best practice
Sources: Company information
Our goal is to be among the top four players in both the Swedish and the Finnish markets
- The markets are not consolidated our goal is to build a top four position in both markets respectively by the end of 2023
- Established a focused M&A team that also includes industry expert and local competence
- Positive feedback on the Fjordkraft platform and development of new services and digital eco system
- Also positive traction on 'multi-hub' approach proven ability to realise efficiency from national platform although working from multiple locations including top management
- Positive feedback on possibility to own shares in Fjordkraft
Our strategic approach
01 Further M&A growth, primarily targeting regional publicly owned energy companies where electricity retailing is not considered core business
02 Replicate platform and efficient operations based on Fjordkraft's model, adjusted to fit SE and FI market and regulations
03 Leverage from product offering, digital UX and support further development of brand, product range and distribution
Key highlights from Nordic expansion
| 1 | A good start through acquisition of Nordic Green Energy |
|---|---|
| 2 | SE and FI are attractive markets with significant M&A potential |
| 3 | Replicate Fjordkraft's platform and support product development |
| 4 | Become a top four player in both SE and FI by the end of 2023 |
Financial outlook
Ole Johan Langenes (Acting CFO)
February 19th, 2021
| Capital Markets Day | 2021
Outlook for 2021-20231
| Group | Targeting high-single digit net revenue growth. 2021 expected above double digit due to acquisitions in 2020 Targeting a sustainable EBIT margin of 36-38% Ambition to act as a consolidator in a fragmented market |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | Growth Targeting mid-single digit annual net revenue growth |
||
| EBIT Targeting a sustainable level of 32-34% margin |
|||
| Targeting a sustainable level of mid-single digit growth. 2021 expected above double digit due to acquisitions in 2020 Growth |
|||
| Business | EBIT Targeting a sustainable level of 52-54% margin |
||
| Nordic | Targeting an annual EBIT contribution of ~50 NOKm |
||
| NGI | Targeting a 50% improvement in nominal EBIT from 2020 to 2021 and a positive run-rate EBIT from late 2021 |
||
| Cap.ex. | Targeted to be in the area of NOK 65-70m annually |
||
| Leverage | Targeting a leverage of 2-2.5x NIBD/EBITDA with variations intra-year due to seasonality in net working capital Current balance sheet enabling substantial capacity to finance acquisitions |
||
| Dividend | Target pay-out ratio of at least 80% of net income, adjusted for certain cash and non-cash items2 Attractive and increasing dividend |
1) Outlook on an organic basis, not including additional M&A transactions in the period. All targets are based on adjusted figures, further described under alternative performance measures in the
quarterly report
2) Adjusted EBIT + net finance – estimated tax – amortisation of acquisition debt