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ELDERS LIMITED — Management Reports 2008
Feb 28, 2008
64835_rns_2008-02-28_0eb6e249-86a0-468a-b446-b0d1b96ef45d.pdf
Management Reports
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29 February 2008
Company Announcements Platform Australian Securities Exchange
Open Briefing – CEO on First Half Results 2008
Sonya Furey Company Secretary
For more information
Don Murchland, Investor Relations Manager Tel: 08 8425 4999
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Attention ASX Company Announcements Platform Lodgement of Open Briefing[®]
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Futuris Corporation Ltd Level 6, 27 Currie Street Adelaide, SA 5000
Date of lodgement: 29-Feb-2008
Title: Open Briefing[®] . Futuris. CEO on Outlook
Record of interview:
corporatefile.com.au
Futuris Corporation Limited recently reported net profit of $27.5 million for the first half ended December 2007, down from $33.1 million in the previous corresponding period. Compared with underlying net profit from continuing operations of $22.9 million in the previous first half, the result was up 18 percent, with EBIT growth of 29 percent partly offset by an increase in net interest charge. Market estimates for net profit for the current year ending June 2008 range from $98 million to $108 million. What are the key factors that could drive earnings above or below this range?
CEO Les Wozniczka
Essentially the same factors that typically affect our earnings: the seasonal break for winter cropping and the level of MIS sales achieved by ITC.
The quality of the seasonal break is normally evident by mid to late May, at which point we are in a position to issue guidance on the outlook for earnings for the year to 30 June.
corporatefile.com.au
In previous years you have advised that due to seasonal conditions the company could earn two thirds of its annual profit in the six months to June. After underlying first half profit to shareholders of $27.1 million, the achievement of a full year result within the market range of expectations will require a larger share of earnings to be generated in the six months to June than has been the case historically. Where do you see the additional second-half earnings being sourced from?
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CEO Les Wozniczka
When you consider a run rate for our business normalised for seasons, a one third-two thirds split is a good rule of thumb.
The divestment of our property division has meant that its contribution has to be replaced from the other business units. It is clear that our performance even for the seasonally exposed businesses is continuing to increase. We have reinvested the proceeds from the divestment into our core operations so we expect further earnings growth across all divisions: Elders Rural Services, Elders Financial Services, Forestry and Telecommunications.
corporatefile.com.au
Following the sale of the property operations in May 2007, Futuris’ underlying earnings are more heavily reliant on the agricultural sector. In recent periods Futuris has succeeded in increasing the resilience of its primary sector-related operations to climatic variations. What further scope do you have to mitigate climatic impacts?
CEO Les Wozniczka
It is important to understand that we are not seeking to remove our exposure to seasonal variations. We have retained our exposure to the rural economy and the swings and surges that the farm economy experiences. Our results for the last 18 months show how earnings and cash flow respond rapidly to favourable seasonal breaks as well as the impact of rainfall deficiencies.
We are increasing the size of business that is not seasonally related, thereby growing the base level of earnings around which seasonal variations occur. This strategy is the reason we have been able to increase our underlying annual profit for four successive years despite mediocre to bad seasons for most of that period.
corporatefile.com.au
Futuris had net debt of $734.9 million at the end of December 2007, up from $690.1 million twelve months earlier. You have advised that Futuris will be moving to manage its balance sheet within more conservative parameters. How do you propose to achieve this and what is the outlook for debt and gearing over the remainder of the year?
CEO Les Wozniczka
The higher debt levels at 31 December were directly attributable to the higher debt opening levels at the beginning of the period compared with the previous half year. Cash outflows during the period were lower than in the 2007 first half and gearing reduced slightly over its position 12 months earlier.
We are expecting that our gearing will follow its normal seasonal pattern and reduce considerably during the six months to 30 June due to the cash inflows resulting from cropping expenditure and from MIS sales.
With prices of agricultural inputs and outputs rising significantly, the working capital demand in the business is greater but so is the profit opportunity. We are conscious of the balance between driving growth opportunity and conservative financial disciplines.
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In addition, we are expecting to generate cash from the sale of our 43 percent shareholding in Australian Agricultural Company (AAco) and the sale of plantation land to Westralia Property Trust.
corporatefile.com.au
What is the rationale for the proposed sale of AACo and given the capital intensive nature of AACo’s business, what has been the level of interest?
CEO Les Wozniczka
Essentially, AACo has developed to the point where realisation of the capital growth in the investment offered the best value outcome for Futuris shareholders.
All of our businesses have growth opportunities before them and as these opportunities generally present better return and cash flow metrics it is logical to realise the profit that has been built in AAco and reinvest the funds in areas where they can earn a better return for our shareholders.
We expected good interest in AAco given the value and size of its properties and AAco’s standing as a global leader in quality beef production. That has proven to be the case and we are expecting to complete the transaction in the period to June.
corporatefile.com.au
In June you announced that the OPEL joint venture with Optus had won funding to build Australia’s rural and regional broadband network under the Broadband Connect Infrastructure Program. What is the status of that project in view of the change in government?
CEO Les Wozniczka
The OPEL joint venturers have submitted a detailed coverage and implementation plan to the government, as required by the funding deed for the program. Funding for the program is conditional upon government approval for the implementation plan. Governmental review of the plan is currently ongoing.
corporatefile.com.au
Elders Rural Services made an underlying EBIT contribution of $23.0 million in the first half, up 70 percent, in spite of adverse seasonal conditions. EBIT margin increased to 2.1 percent from 1.3 percent. Which areas of the business generated the margin improvement and is this level of margin sustainable?
CEO Les Wozniczka
Our margins reflect a mixture of fixed commissions on agency services such as livestock and wool, and retail margins on merchandise products. Margins from period to period are not meaningful unless the composition of sales is taken into account.
In the first half, the summer rainfall in the eastern states translated to increased sales of fertiliser and weed control chemicals. In addition to sales, management initiatives, cost reduction and the progress made in areas such as grain, real estate and merchandise enabled Elders to finish the period strongly and up on the previous corresponding period.
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Taken over an extended period we believe the profitability of the business is continuing to advance. The progress will be masked from time to time by seasonal conditions but a return to more normal weather patterns will demonstrate the improved run rate.
corporatefile.com.au
You’ve indicated Elders Rural Services’ grain operations made progress in the first half, forming a grain trading joint venture with Toepfer and executing sales of 571,000 tonnes, up 20 percent. Can you comment on the capital requirements of the grain-trading operations and how these might change as you seek to grow on the back of market deregulation? What are your hurdle returns in grain?
CEO Les Wozniczka
The hurdle returns are the same we would ordinarily apply within our business. The formation of the joint venture with Toepfer will mitigate the capital requirements of this activity and we are endeavouring to optimise the working capital impact.
corporatefile.com.au
You’ve reported that Elders secured 16 percent of the South Australian export barley crop in the first year of deregulation. How does this level of market penetration compare with your broader targets in grain?
CEO Les Wozniczka
In our opinion, to have secured 15 percent or more in our first year, after having secured a permit only in October, is a very good outcome. It shows that our business model works and that our clients are very receptive to Elders and the sales propositions we took to them.
With greater time for preparation we expect to be able to develop a broader range of sales options for our clients and will be looking to grow our share of next year’s harvest. As far as the broader grain market goes, we are expecting some form of deregulation of bulk wheat marketing prior to the current year’s harvest.
We would take to that market the same competitive strengths we were able to deploy in barley. We have strong day-to-day relationships with growers, built through years of service by the Elders’ staff and branches located throughout Australia’s grain growing region. We offer cash prices and simple sales propositions to growers. The joint venture with Toepfer enables us to take to growers the latest and best prices being offered for the product from buyers around the world. Finally, we start with the advantage that growers know Elders will make sure they are paid in full and paid promptly.
corporatefile.com.au
In spite of the increase in earnings, Rural Services’ first-half operating cash outflow increased to $161.0 million from $124.3 million. In which specific areas did cash outflows increase and to what extent are they expected to experience a reversal in the second half?
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CEO Les Wozniczka
Elders Rural Services’ cash flow follows seasonal trends with an outflow in the first six months of the year followed by a typically greater inflow in the period to June. The outflow in the period just completed was higher than the 2007 first half for a number of reasons including higher tax, interest and provisions. However the primary driver was the increase in commodity prices flowing through to working capital demands. While this has some challenge for us, it is placing great pressure on smaller competitors, hence the improvement in margins we are seeing across the business. As the working capital increase reflects current prices, we are not envisaging further demands in the short term.
corporatefile.com.au
Elders Financial Services contributed underlying EBIT of $15.2 million in the first half, down from $16.8 million, with the reduction attributable to insurance operations which were impacted by the return to more normal claims experience from last year’s abnormally low level. Elders Rural Bank had a 16 percent increase in loans under management and deposits in the six months, and 6 per cent profit growth. Why have profits from banking slowed? Has the bank been impacted by bad debts due to the seasonal conditions?
CEO Les Wozniczka
As the current reporting season has shown, banking sector returns have been impacted by the volatility in financial markets.
Elders Rural Bank has no exposure to sub-prime credit or exotic debt securities but has to be competitive in its deposit-raising even though the bulk of deposits are retail.
The quality of the bank’s credit was one of the stand-out features of ERB’s results. Despite experiencing a second successive year of poor seasonal conditions, the bank improved its non-performing loan position, with the ratio of net non-performing loans falling to 0.36 percent from 0.42 percent at 31 December 2006.
Given the circumstances, we think the solid steady results from the bank represent a good performance and compare very favourably with other reports from the sector.
corporatefile.com.au
You have highlighted sales of Managed Investment Schemes as one of the key factors in determining Futuris’ annual profit. In the June 2007 financial year ITC had MIS sales totalling $61.5 million up 30 percent on the previous year. What is your assessment of the climate for sales of MIS in the current period and what are your targets for 2007?
CEO Les Wozniczka
We are seeking to achieve a healthy increase on last year’s result. ITC is well advanced for that objective. The Diversified Forests Project, which proved popular last year, was released in October and release of the remaining hardwood and sandalwood projects is anticipated shortly.
The level of sales ultimately achieved will be influenced by market conditions and the opportunities to investors. For example, forestry MIS sales last year
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were affected by the opportunity that was available for concessional superannuation contributions and the announcement of changes in respect of non-forestry MIS projects.
At this stage we are expecting a more settled sales environment for the new MIS season.
corporatefile.com.au
ITC announced on Tuesday the securing of a 10 percent, or $18 per bone dry metric tonne (BDMT), increase in the agreed benchmark price for certified plantation grown woodchip ex Albany to Japan. What is the earnings significance of this price increase and what is your assessment of the outcome?
CEO Les Wozniczka
The new benchmark price of $207.40 per BDMT will have an immediate beneficial effect for current year earnings as it is incorporated into earnings accruals on our current estate. As prices are negotiated on an annual basis, we have factored price increases into our earnings expectations.
Naturally we are satisfied with the price outcome which is the second successive real increase and the largest increase for the last 25 years. We think it is an outcome which recognises the value and strategic significance of Australian plantation grown woodchip for Asian markets. Anticipation of this significance has been one of the principal drivers of our investment in forestry and our enthusiasm for building ITC’s estate. It is our expectation that the current demand trends will continue and that the strategic and economic value of Australian plantation woodchip supply will escalate further.
corporatefile.com.au
Futuris Automotive contributed underlying EBIT of $7.4 million in the first half, up 32 percent. During the half you sold the underperforming rail and bus HVAC systems business and you’ve indicated you will look to divest the remainder of Automotive. What is the anticipated time frame for any sale?
CEO Les Wozniczka
Our history is that we generally achieve good profits for our shareholders on asset sales. We’ve been able to do so because of the effort we commit to the transaction process.
We have designated the sale of our shareholding in AACo as our most important divestment transaction for the current year. We are working towards getting the best outcome possible for our shareholders from that asset.
Automotive operations improved their performance in the period just completed and are expected to increase their full-year EBIT contribution on last year’s levels. However, as we are now largely focussed on the rural and regional sector, we are not the most logical owner of automotive interests.
Divestment of the asset will be managed to optimise value for our shareholders as has been the case with our other transactions. Timing is one variable in this process, but at this stage it is our expectation that it could be completed in the 2009 financial year.
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corporatefile.com.au
Futuris’ underlying EPS from continuing operations was 3.7 cents in the first half, up from 3.2 cents in the previous corresponding period, and you’ve announced a fully franked interim dividend of 4 cents per share, unchanged. Last year Futuris paid a final dividend of 5.5 cents. What is the outlook for this year’s final dividend?
CEO Les Wozniczka
We are still early in our earnings cycle, so it is premature to make any definitive comments about dividends. Market expectations are that the company will approximate or slightly exceed last year’s underlying earnings. The decision on dividends will be made by directors in light of the earnings results actually achieved and the capital needs of the company.
corporatefile.com.au
Thank you Les.
For more information about Futuris, please visit www.futuris.com.au or call Don Murchland on (+61 8) 8425 4617
For previous Open Briefings by Futuris, or to receive future Open Briefings by e-mail, please visit www.corporatefile.com.au
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