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Deutsche Wohnen SE — Interim / Quarterly Report 2016
May 13, 2016
113_ip_2016-05-13_7e01dc0d-36b6-429e-8b4e-320fa006b433.pdf
Interim / Quarterly Report
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Deutsche Wohnen AG
» Q1 2016 results Conference Call, 13 May 2016
» Financial highlights Q1 2016
| Operational development | KPIs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In EUR m | Q1 2016 |
YoY | In EUR m | Q1 2016 | YoY |
| NOI letting | 138.1 | +13.2% | FFO I (after minorities) |
100.9 | +41.5% |
| NOI margin | 80.5% | +3.7ppt | in EUR/ share1) | 0.30 | +25.0% |
| Like-for-like rental growth |
3.7% | +1.3ppt | FFO I margin | 58.8% | +13.9ppt |
| Vacancy rate |
1.8% | -0.5ppt | FFO II (after minorities) |
124.6 | +54.6% |
| NOI nursing | 4.6 | +21.1% | in EUR/ share1) | 0.37 | +37.0% |
| FFO contribution | 4.0 | +17.6% | Adj. EBITDA (excl. disposals) 2) |
135.5 | +19.6% |
| Occupancy rate |
98.4% | +2.2ppt | Adj. EBITDA margin | 79.0% | +7.7ppt |
| Earnings from disposals |
23.7 | +154.8% | Cost ratio |
9.6% | +2.2ppt |
| Gross margin privatization |
33% | -9ppt | per unit3) Cost (in EUR) |
412 | 502 |
| Gross margin inst. sales |
17% | +7ppt | In EUR m | Q1 2016 | YTD |
| Free cash flow impact |
109.0 | +374% | 4) EPRA NAV per share (undiluted) |
23.39 | 1.7% |
| ICR | 5.2x | +2x | LTV | 42% | +4ppt |
1) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (Q1 2016: 337.42m; Q1 2015: 298.57m); 2) Adjusted for one-off effects excluding disposals; 3) Corporate expenses annualized divided by avg. units in period; 4) based on 337.4m shares outstanding
» Portfolio update Q1 2016 – focused and concentrated
| Strategic cluster | Residential units |
% of total measured by fair value |
In-place rent1) 31/03/2016 EUR/sqm/month |
Fair value 31/03/2016 EUR/sqm |
Multiple in-place rent |
Multiple market rent |
Rent potential2) 31/03/2016 in % |
Vacancy 31/03/2016 in % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic core and growth regions |
153,283 | 98.2% | 5.95 | 1,304 | 18.3 | 15.3 | 21% | 1.7% |
| Core+ | 133,921 | 88.9% | 6.01 | 1,357 | 18.8 | 15.6 | 24% | 1.7% |
| Core | 19,362 | 9.3% | 5.55 | 950 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 12% | 2.3% |
| Non-core | 4,665 | 1.8% | 5.08 | 706 | 12.1 | 10.5 | n/a | 5.7% |
| Total | 157,948 | 100% | 5.93 | 1,284 | 18.1 | 15.1 | 21% | 1.8% |
| Thereof Greater Berlin | 111,201 | 73.9% | 5.93 | 1,372 | 19.3 | 15.9 | 23% | 1.7% |
Further rent potential in Core+ regions of ~24%
Vacancy rate in Core+ portfolio declined by 40bps over 12 months to c. 1.7% (close to structural vacancy)
Attractive spread in Core+ between in-place rent and market rent multiples of more than 3x offer further potential for NAV growth
1) Contractually owed rent from rented apartments divided by rented area; 2) Unrestricted residential units (letting portfolio); rent potential = new-letting rent compared to in-place rent (letting portfolio); 3) Including signed acquisitions and disposals with transfer of ownership after 31/12/2015
» Strong like-for-like development as of 31 March 2016
| Like-for-like 31/03/2016 |
Residential units number |
In-place rent2) 31/03/2016 EUR/sqm |
In-place rent2) 31/03/2015 EUR/sqm |
Change y-o-y |
Vacancy 31/03/2016 in % |
Vacancy 31/03/2015 in % |
Change y-o-y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| portfolio1) Letting |
129,014 | 6.00 | 5.78 | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | -0.3pp |
| Core+ | 115,470 | 6.06 | 5.83 | 3.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | -0.2pp |
| Greater Berlin |
95,401 | 5.99 | 5.75 | 4.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | -0.2pp |
| Rhine-Main | 8,427 | 7.40 | 7.20 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | -0.3pp |
| Mannheim/Ludwigshafen | 4,762 | 5.70 | 5.59 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | -0.6pp |
| Rhineland | 4,470 | 5.95 | 5.77 | 3.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | -0.7pp |
| Dresden | 2,410 | 5.14 | 5.08 | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.3pp |
| Core | 13,544 | 5.49 | 5.37 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | -0.7pp |
| Hanover / Brunswick |
8,100 | 5.58 | 5.42 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | -0.7pp |
| Core cities eastern Germany |
4,316 | 5.33 | 5.31 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | -0.7pp |
| Kiel / Lübeck |
1,128 | 5.39 | 5.24 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | -0.6pp |
| Total | 136,2183) | 5.98 | 5.76 | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | -0.1pp |
Vacancy in Core+ letting portfolio further reduced to 1.4%
Like-for-like rental growth in Core+ driven by re-letting (c. 1/3) and regular rent increase (c. 2/3) in particular driven by implementation of 2015 Berlin rent table
In Dresden like-for-like rental growth derived from re-lettings only
1) Cluster block sale of strategic core and growth regions allocated to letting portfolio; 2) Contractually owed rent from rented apartments divided by rented area; 3) Total L-f-l stock incl. Non-Core
» Strong earnings and cash contributions from letting
| in EUR m | Q1 2016 | Q1 2015 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental income | 171.5 | 158.9 | |
| Non-recoverable expenses |
(2.8) | (3.6) | |
| Rental loss | (2.3) | (1.8) | |
| Maintenance | (17.4) | (19.0) | |
| Others | (1.8) | (2.0) | |
| Earnings from Residential Property Management |
147.2 | 132.5 | |
| Personnel, general and administrative expenses |
(9.1) | (10.5) | |
| Net Operating Income (NOI) | 138.1 | 122.0 | |
| NOI margin |
80.5% | 76.8% | |
| NOI in EUR / sqm / month |
4.69 | 4.41 |
in EUR m Q1 2016 Q1 2015
Net operating income (NOI) 138.1 122.0 Cash interest expenses (25.9) (34.8)
| Development of NOI margin |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.5% | |||||
| 77.1% | 76.8% | ||||
| Q1-2014 | Q1-2015 | Q1-2016 |
| | Increased rental income and further efficiencies in operating business, as well as seasonal lower maintenance expenses, |
|---|---|
| resulting in improved NOI margin |
112.2 87.2
Cash flow from portfolio after cash interest
expenses
» Growing prices as demonstrated by disposal business
| Disposals | Privatization | Institutional sales |
Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with closing in |
Q1 2016 | Q1 2015 | Q1 2016 | Q1 2015 | Q1 2016 | Q1 2015 | |
| No. of units |
491 | 453 | 1,280 | 108 | 1,771 | 561 | |
| Proceeds (EUR m) | 43.5 | 40.0 | 115.6 | 9.7 | 159.1 | 49.7 | |
| Book value | 32.8 | 28.1 | 99.2 | 8.8 | 132.0 | 36.9 | |
| Price in EUR per sqm |
1,272 | 1,285 | 1,135 | 951 | n/a | n/a | |
| Earnings (EUR m) |
7.6 | 8.7 | 16.0 | 0.6 | 23.7 | 9.3 | |
| Gross margin | 33% | 42% | 17% | 10% | 21% | 35% | |
| Cash flow impact (EUR m) |
27 | 20 | 82 | 3 | 109 | 23 |
Disposal business contributed cash flows of EUR 109m in Q1 2016
Privatization: Disposal of below-average quality; significant step up in prices for signed but not yet closed disposals of c. 500 units with on average EUR ~1,600 per sqm (Berlin share of sold units ~60% with gross margins >50%
Institutional sales: consisted predominantly of a Berlin city-border portfolio with 900 units
» Attractive FFO contribution from Nursing and Assisted Living
| in EUR m | Q1 2016 |
Q1 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Income | ||
| Nursing | 13.6 | 12.9 |
| Living | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Other | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Total income | 17.2 | 16.3 |
| Costs | ||
| Nursing and corporate expenses |
(3.8) | (4.3) |
| Staff expenses |
(8.8) | (8.2) |
| Total costs | (12.6) | (12.5) |
| Earnings from Nursing and Assisted Living (NOI) |
4.6 | 3.8 |
| Cash interest expenses |
(0.6) | (0.4) |
| FFO contribution | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Q1 2016 | # of facilities |
# of places |
|---|---|---|
| Greater Berlin |
12 | 1,442 |
| Saxony | 7 | 475 |
| Others | 1 | 131 |
| In total | 20 | 2,048 |
Nursing and Assisted Living business delivers RoCE of c. 10% and RoE of c. 15% based on FV of c. EUR 160m and c. 40% LTV
» Best in class EBITDA margin
| in EUR m | Q1 2016 |
Q1 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings from Residential Property Management |
147.2 | 132.5 |
| Earnings from Disposals |
23.7 | 9.3 |
| Earnings from Nursing and Assisted Living |
4.6 | 3.8 |
| Segment contribution margin |
175.5 | 145.6 |
| Corporate expenses |
(16.5) | (18.7) |
| Other operating expenses/income |
0.2 | (7.9) |
| EBITDA | 159.2 | 119.0 |
| One-offs | 0.0 | 3.6 |
| EBITDA (adjusted) | 159.2 | 122.6 |
Significant step-up of adj. EBITDA margin by 7.7pp (excl. disposals) driven by improvement of NOI and reduction of corporate expenses
» Operational improvements and acquisitions drive FFO growth
| in EUR m | Q1 2016 |
Q1 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA (adjusted) | 159.2 | 122.6 |
| Earnings from Disposals | (23.7) | (9.3) |
| At equity valuation |
0.2 | 0.4 |
| Interest expense/ income | (26.1) | (35.0) |
| Income taxes | (7.1) | (5.5) |
| Minorities | (1.6) | (1.9) |
| FFO I |
100.9 | 71.3 |
| Earnings from Disposals | 23.7 | 9.3 |
| FFO II | 124.6 | 80.6 |
| in EUR1) FFO I per share |
0.30 | 0.24 |
| in EUR1) FFO II per share |
0.37 | 0.27 |
- FFO I per share increased by 25% yoy while leverage was significantly reduced
- Dividend expected to increase by 30% to EUR 0.70 per share for 20162)
1) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (Q1 2016: 337.42m; Q1 2015: 298.57m); 2) Based on FFO I guidance of at least EUR 360m and 337.4m shares outstanding
» Steady increase of EPRA NAV per share
| in EUR m | 31/03/2016 | 31/12/2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (before non-controlling interests) |
6,743.4 | 6,653.5 |
| Fair values of derivative financial instruments |
60.0 | 44.8 |
| Deferred taxes (net) |
1,090.4 | 1,064.1 |
| EPRA NAV (undiluted) | 7,893.8 | 7,762.4 |
| Shares outstanding in m |
337.4 | 337.4 |
| EPRA NAV per share in EUR (undiluted) |
23.39 | 23.01 |
| Effects of exercise of convertibles |
952.51) | 952.11) |
| EPRA NAV (diluted) |
8,846.3 | 8,714.5 |
| Shares diluted in m |
370.2 | 370.2 |
| EPRA NAV per share in EUR (diluted) |
23.90 | 23.54 |
| Goodwill GSW | (535.1) | (535.1) |
| Shares outstanding in m |
337.4 | 337.4 |
| Adj. NAV per share (undiluted) |
21.81 | 21.42 |
1) Current strike price: 17.79 EUR and 21.41 EUR corresponds to ~32.7m shares
» Appendix
» Bridge from adjusted EBITDA to profit
| in EUR m | Q1 2016 | Q1 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA (adjusted) | 159.2 | 122.6 |
| Depreciation | (1.3) | (1.3) |
| At equity valuation |
0.2 | 0.4 |
| Financial result (net) |
(26.2)1) | (30.0) 1) |
| EBT (adjusted) | 132.1 | 91.7 |
| Valuation properties |
0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other one-off income | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| One-off costs for transactions |
0.0 | (4.5) |
| One-off costs financing |
0.0 | (5.4) |
| Restructuring & Reorganization |
0.0 | 0.0 |
| Valuation SWAP and convertible bonds |
(4.3) | (109.9) |
| EBT | 127.6 | (27.2) |
| Current taxes |
(7.1) | (5.5) |
| Deferred taxes |
(19.9) | (11.5) |
| Profit | 100.6 | (44.2) |
| Profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company |
97.3 | (47.1) |
| per share2) Earnings |
0.29 | (0.16) |
| in EUR m | Q1 2016 | Q1 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Interest expenses | (26.5) | (35.2) |
| In % of rents |
~16% | ~22% |
| Non-cash interest expenses |
(0.0) | (5.0) |
| (26.5) | (30.2) | |
| Interest income | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Financial result (net) |
(26.2) | (30.0) |
Thereof EUR (7.8m) from valuation of derivatives and EUR 3.5m from convertible bonds
1) Adjusted for Valuation of SWAPs and convertible bonds; 2) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (Q1-16: 337.4m; Q1-15: 298.6m)
» Summary balance sheet
| Assets | Equity and Liabilities | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in EUR m | 31/03/2016 | 31/12/2015 | in EUR m | 31/03/2016 | 31/12/2015 |
| Investment properties | 12,692.9 | 11,859.1 | Total equity | 6,986.2 | 6,872.0 |
| Other non-current assets |
616.4 | 614.3 | Financial liabilities | 4,357.7 | 3,780.4 |
| Deferred tax assets |
327.7 | 325.5 | Convertibles | 961.4 | 965.4 |
| Non current assets |
13,637.0 | 12,798.9 | Bonds | 500.3 | 498.3 |
| Land and buildings held for sale |
328.8 | 66.9 | Tax liabilities |
46.1 | 37.5 |
| Trade receivables | 38.8 | 13.4 | Deferred tax liabilities |
1,128.9 | 1,110.2 |
| Other current assets |
96.3 | 159.3 | Derivatives | 60.0 | 44.8 |
| Cash and cash equivalents |
331.0 | 661.6 | Other liabilities | 391.3 | 391.5 |
| Current assets |
794.9 | 901.2 | Total liabilities | 7,445.7 | 6,828.1 |
| Total assets | 14,431.9 | 13,700.1 | Total equity and liabilities |
14,431.9 | 13,700.1 |
Investment properties represent ~88% of total assets
Strong balance sheet structure offering comfort throughout market cycles
» Focused and increasing investments into the portfolio
| Q1 2016 |
Q1 2015 |
|
|---|---|---|
| EUR m | EUR m | |
| Maintenance (expensed through p&l) |
17.4 | 19.0 |
| Modernization (capitalized on balance sheet) |
13.3 | 15.7 |
| Total | 30.7 | 34.7 |
| Total EUR/ sqm1) | 12.52 | 15.06 |
| Capitalization rate |
43.3% | 45.2% |
1) Based on the quarterly average area
» Conservative long term capital structure with <1.7% interest costs
| Rating | A- / A3; stable outlook |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTV | 42% | |||
| ICR1) | >5x | |||
| Ø maturity | ~9 years | |||
| % secured bank debt |
77% | |||
| % unsecured debt |
23% | |||
| Ø interest cost |
<1.7% (>80% hedged) | |||
| Key financial principles |
LTV: 35-45% fully flexible regarding secured or unsecured financing |
- Low leverage, long maturities and best in class rating
- Flexible financing approach to optimize financing costs
- No significant maturities until and including 2019, thereafter maturity profile evenly spread
- Convertible bonds accounted 100% as debt (deeply in the money)
- Base case LTV 2016 <40% expected
1) adjusted EBITDA/ interest expenses
» Unchanged guidance (base case)
| 2015 | 2016e | Main drivers |
Mid-term perspective4) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPRA NAV per share (undiluted)1)2) |
23.01 | 25 – 26 |
Capex upgrade, rent development, further yield compression expected based on market evidence |
|
| FFO I in EUR m | 303 | >360 | Addition of 15k units on a net base and like-for-like rent growth (EUR ~50m in total), interest cost savings (EUR ~10m) |
|
| Dividend per share3) | 0.54 | ~0.70 | Higher FFO I, payout ratio increased from 60% to 65% |
|
| LTV | 38%/43%3) | <40% | Valuation uplift from capex and further yield compression |
- Like-for-like rental growth of 2.5% in 2016 expected
- Targeted disposals of ~2,000 units in 2016 provide attractive income stream
- Streamlining of portfolio successfully executed, further opportunistic institutional sales possible but depending on pricing
Note: Base case guidance: without acquisitions and opportunistic portfolio disposal; 1) Excluding any changes in goodwill impairment and valuation of financial instruments; 2) Based on currently outstanding shares; 3) Pro forma acquisitions; 4) relative perspective to individual KPI
» Strong generation of total shareholder return
Development of dividend in EUR per share Development of EPRA NAV (undiluted) in EUR per share
- Top line growth via acquisitions and operational improvements as well as refinancing/ debt paydown translates into FFO growth (CAGR 2012-2015: 24%)
- Beeing invested in the right markets delivers NAV growth over time, based on strong fundamental trends (CAGR 2012-2015: 37%)
- Via targeted modernization projects, further improvement of rents and capital growth
- NAV growth results in further LTV reduction and improvement of the risk profile
» THE BERLIN-PORTFOLIO AT A GLANCE
» Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements including assumptions, opinions and views of Deutsche Wohnen or quoted from third party sources. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could cause actual results, financial positions, the development or the performance of Deutsche Wohnen to differ materially from the estimations expressed or implied herein. Deutsche Wohnen does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor do they accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this presentation or the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions, contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein, and accordingly, none of Deutsche Wohnen AG or any of its affiliates (including subsidiary undertakings) or any of such person's officers, directors or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. Deutsche Wohnen does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation.
Deutsche Wohnen AG
Registered Office Pfaffenwiese 300 65929 Frankfurt/ Main Berlin Office Mecklenburgische Straße 57 14197 Berlin Phone: +49 30 897 86 5413 Fax: +49 30 897 86 5419
© 2016 Deutsche Wohnen AG