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Deutsche Wohnen SE Earnings Release 2016

Nov 15, 2016

113_ip_2016-11-15_e7e4f95d-5659-4bad-ad60-d4091b64bf2c.pdf

Earnings Release

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Deutsche Wohnen AG

» 9M 2016 results

Conference Call, 15 November 2016

» 9M 2016 results

» Financial highlights 9M 2016

Operational development KPIs
In EUR m 9M
2016
YoY In EUR m 9M 2016 YoY
NOI letting 414.6 +15.1% FFO
I (after minorities)
301.4 +31.8%
NOI margin 78.8% +2.6ppt in EUR/ share1) 0.89 +21.9%
Like-for-like rental
growth
3.2% +0.1ppt FFO I margin 57.3% +9.0ppt
Vacancy
rate
1.8% -0.3ppt FFO
II (after minorities)
347.8 +20.1%
NOI nursing 13.7 +14.2% in EUR/ share1) 1.03 +12.0%
FFO contribution 10.4 +13.0% 2)
Adj. EBITDA (excl. disposals)
405.0 +18.6%
Occupancy
rate
98.7% +2.2ppt Adj. EBITDA margin 77.0% +4.8ppt
Earnings
from
disposals
46.4 -23.7% Cost
ratio
10.0% -1.6ppt
Gross margin
privatization
40% -1ppt per unit3)
Cost
(in EUR)
435 -14.0%
Gross margin
inst. sales
12% +4ppt In EUR m 9M 2016 YTD
Free cash flow
impact
255.1 -37.5% EPRA NAV per share
(undiluted)
4)
25.10 9.1%
ICR 5.7x +1.5x LTV 41.7% +3.7ppt

1) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (9M 2016: 337.44m; 9M 2015: 315.27m); 2) Adjusted for one-off effects excluding disposals; 3) Corporate expenses annualized divided by avg. units in period; 4) based on 337.5m shares outstanding

» Portfolio update 9M 2016 – attractive reversionary potential

Strategic cluster Residential
units
% of total
measured by
fair value
In-place rent1)
30/09/2016
EUR/sqm/month
Rent potential2)
30/09/2016
in %
Vacancy
30/09/2016
in
%
Fair
value
30/09/2016
EUR/sqm
Multiple
in-place
rent
Multiple
market
rent
Strategic core and growth
regions
154,343 98.5% 6.07 22% 1.7% 1,396 19.1 15.6
Core+ 134,996 89.6% 6.15 25% 1.7% 1,458 19.7 15.8
Core 19,347 8.9% 5.56 13% 1.9% 983 14.8 13.3
Non-core 3,931 1.5% 5.21 n/a 5.1% 761 12.6 10.8
Total 158,274 100% 6.05 21% 1.8% 1,379 19.0 15.5
Thereof Greater Berlin 110,776 72.9% 6.04 25% 1.7% 1,459 20.2 15.9

Further rent potential in Core+ regions of unchanged ~25%

  • Attractive spread between in-place and market rent multiples of c. 4x offer further potential for NAV growth
  • Vacancy rate in Core+ portfolio declined by 20bps over 12 months to c. 1.7%

1) Contractually owed rent from rented apartments divided by rented area; 2) Unrestricted residential units (letting portfolio); rent potential = new-letting rent compared to in-place rent (letting portfolio);

» Strong like-for-like development in Berlin

Like-for-like
30/09/2016
Residential units
number
In-place rent1)
30/09/2016
EUR/sqm/month
In-place rent1)
30/09/2015
EUR/sqm/month
Change
y-o-y
Vacancy
30/09/2016
in %
Vacancy
30/09/2015
in %
Change
y-o-y
Core+ 123,344 6.11 5.91 3.5% 1.5% 1.6% -0.1pp
Greater
Berlin
102,995 6.04 5.82 3.8% 1.5% 1.7% -0.2pp
Rhine-Main 8,457 7.48 7.31 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% +0.2pp
Mannheim/Ludwigshafen 4,762 5.73 5.67 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% -0.5pp
Rhineland 4,474 6.01 5.86 2.5% 1.0% 1.2% -0.2pp
Dresden 2,656 5.29 5.16 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% +0.3pp
Core 13,787 5.55 5.47 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% -0.4pp
Hanover
/ Brunswick
8,100 5.61 5.53 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% -0.2pp
Core cities
eastern
Germany
4,559 5.45 5.38 1.2% 2.0% 2.8% -0.8pp
Kiel
/ Lübeck
1,128 5.44 5.35 1.7% 2.0% 3.4% -1.4pp
Total Letting
portfolio2)
137,131 6.05 5.86 3.2% 1.5% 1.7% -0.2pp
Total 142,241 6.03 5.85 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% -

Strong like-for-like rental growth in Core+ (3.5%) and in particular in Berlin (3.8%)

Like-for-like vacancy in Core+letting portfolio at 1.5% - portfolio fully rented out

Strong like-for-like vacancy reduction by 40bps also in Core regions to 1.9%

1) Contractually owed rent from rented apartments divided by rented area; 2) Excluding non-core and properties held for sale/ privatization

» Strong earnings and cash contributions from letting

in EUR m 9M 2016 9M
2015
Rental income 526.1 473.1
Non-recoverable
expenses
(6.2) (9.4)
Rental loss (4.8) (4.6)
Maintenance (64.4) (58.9)
Others (6.0) (7.2)
Earnings
from
Residential Property
Management
444.7 393.0
Personnel, general
and
administrative expenses
(30.1) (32.7)
Net Operating Income (NOI) 414.6 360.3
NOI
margin
78.8% 76.2%
NOI
in EUR / sqm
/ month
4.69 4.40

9M-2015 9M-2016

NOI
in EUR / sqm
/ month
4.69 4.40
in EUR m 9M 2016 9M 2015
Net operating
income
(NOI)
414.6 360.3 76.2%
Cash interest
expenses
(76.0) (93.6)
Cash flow
from
portfolio
after cash interest
expenses
338.6 266.7
Cash flow
margin
64.4% 56.4%

Improved NOI margin driven by rental growth combined with efficient management of operational costs

» Growing prices as demonstrated by disposal business

Disposals Privatization Institutional
sales
Total
with
closing
in
9M 2016 9M 2015 9M 2016 9M 2015 9M 2016 9M 2015
No. of
units
1,061 1,479 2,544 6,951 3,605 8,430
Proceeds (EUR m) 125.5 145.8 175.5 447.1 301.0 592.9
Book value 89.9 103.2 156.5 413.5 246.4 516.7
Price
in EUR per sqm
1,538 1,384 961 942 n/a n/a
Earnings
(EUR
m)
28.7 33.8 17.7 27.0 46.4 60.8
Gross margin 40% 41% 12% 8% 22% 15%
Cash flow
impact
(EUR
m)
111.7 83.7 143.4 324.7 255.1 408.4

Disposal business contributed cash flows of EUR 255m in 9M 2016

  • Privatization: Disposal of below-average quality at continued attractive margins; privatizations in Berlin moving towards EUR 2,000 per sqm
  • Institutional sales: consisted predominantly of a Berlin city-border portfolio with 900 units and further ~900 units in Merseburg

» High profitability from nursing "operations" and "assets"

Operations (in EUR m) 9M 2016 9M
2015
Total income 52.4 49.9
Total expenses (47.1) (45.9)
EBITDA operations 5.3 4.0
EBITDA margin 10.1% 8.0%
Lease expenses1) 9.7 9.6
EBITDAR 15.0 13.6
EBITDAR margin 28.6% 27.3%
Assets (in EUR m) 9M 2016 9M
2015
Lease income1) 8.9 8.3
Total expenses (0.5) (0.3)
EBITDA assets 8.4 8.0
Operations & Assets (in EUR m) 9M 2016 9M
2015
Total EBITDA 13.7 12.0
Interest expenses2) (3.3) (2.8)
in EUR m 9M 2016 9M
2015
Nursing 41.5 39.7
Living 4.9 4.6
Other 6.0 5.6
in EUR m 9M 2016 9M
2015
Staff (26.7) (25.2)
Rent
/ lease
(9.7) (9.6)

Set out in the consolidated group financial statements as "Earnings from nursing and assisted living"

Includes fee payable to operational partner of EUR 1.5m for 9M 2015 and EUR 2m for 9M 2016

EBITDAR margin of 28.6% or 1.5x lease revenues proof points for operational excellence

1) The delta between lease expenses (operations) and lease income assets derives from one nursing facility which is only operated but not owned by Deutsche Wohnen group 2) Including proportional interest cost due to minority stake in operations;

» Strong operating performance of the nursing business

Nursing is a staff-intense business

1) Rents for internally operated facilities are consolidated on group accounting level; 2) Incl. housekeeping supplies, laundry, catering, other

High occupancy rate is a good proof point for operational excellence

Attractive EBITDAR margins
3)
28.7%
28.1%
27.8%
27.0%
2013
2014
2015
9M 2016

3) EBITDAR = EBITDA before rents;

» Nursing homes - portfolio overview

Existing nursing business: Assets and operating business1)

# of places
Region Facilities
#
Nursing
#
Assisted
living
#
Total
#
Area
(sqm)
Occupancy
rate
Fair Value
(30/06/2016)
Greater
Berlin
12 1,072 370 1,442 84,250 98.0%
Saxony 7 436 39 475 21,836 99.4%
Lower
Saxony
1 131 - 131 5,427 98.7%
Total 20 1,639 409 2,048 111,513 98.4% 161.4m

Recent Pegasus acquisition: Assets only2)

of
h
n
# # living
#
# (sqm) rate (30/06/2016)
e
n
ari
Greater
Berlin
12 1,072 370 1,442 84,250 98.0%
at Saxony 7 436 39 475 21,836 99.4%
Lower
Saxony
1 131 - 131 5,427 98.7%
Total 20 1,639 409 2,048 111,513 98.4% 161.4m
Recent Pegasus acquisition: Assets only2) # of places
Region Facilities
#
Nursing
#
Assisted
living
#
Total
#
Area
(sqm)
WALT Purchase
price
Bavaria 7 999 - 999 41,193 12.3
North-Rhine Westphalia 5 721 187 908 46,117
13.9
Lower
Saxony
4 661 - 661 24,460 11.2
Rhineland-Palatinate 4 409 208 617 29,276 14.0
Baden-Württemberg 5 557 16 573 24,216 13.9
Other 3 374 - 374 14,324 9.0
p
o
er
h
Ot
Total 28 3,721 411 4,132 179,586 12.6 420.5m
Total 48 5,360 820 6,180 291,099 n/a n/a

» Significant step up in EBITDA margin

in EUR m 9M
2016
9M
2015
Earnings
from
Residential Property Management
444.7 393.0
Earnings
from
Disposals
46.4 60.8
Earnings
from
Nursing and
Assisted
Living
13.7 12.0
Segment
contribution
margin
504.8 465.8
Corporate
expenses
(52.4) (54.8)
Other
operating
expenses/income
(1.0) (34.5)
EBITDA 451.4 376.5
One-offs 0.0 25.7
adj.
EBITDA (incl. disposals)
451.4 402.2
Earnings
from
Disposals
(46.4) (60.8)
adj.
EBITDA (excl. disposals)
405.0 341.4

Adj. EBITDA margin up by 4.8pp (excl. disposals) driven by improvement of NOI and reduction of corporate expenses

» Operational improvements, acquisitions and lower interest expenses drive FFO growth

in EUR m 9M
2016
9M
2015
EBITDA (adjusted) 451.4 402.2
Earnings from Disposals (46.4) (60.8)
At equity
valuation
1.5 1.5
Interest expense/ income (78.6) (94.4)
Income taxes (21.3) (14.0)
Minorities (5.2) (5.8)
FFO
I
301.4 228.7
Earnings from Disposals 46.4 60.8
FFO II 347.8 289.5
in EUR1)
FFO I per share
0.89 0.73
in EUR1)
FFO II per share
1.03 0.92

Diluted FFO I of EUR 0.83 per share pro forma conversion of in-the money convertible bonds

FFO I per share increased by 22% yoy

Dividend expected to increase by 35% to EUR ~0.73 per share for 20162)

1) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (9M 2016: 337.44m; 9M 2015: 315.27m); 2) Based on FFO I guidance of at least EUR 380m and 337.5m shares outstanding

» Steady increase of EPRA NAV per share

in EUR m 30/09/2016 31/12/2015
Equity (before
non-controlling interests)
7,062.5 6,653.5
Fair values
of
derivative financial
instruments
60.0 44.8
Deferred
taxes
(net)
1,349.5 1,064.1
EPRA NAV (undiluted) 8,472.0 7,762.4
Shares outstanding
(in m)
337.5 337.4
EPRA NAV per share
in EUR
(undiluted)
25.10 23.01
Effects
of
exercise
of
convertibles
1,097.41) 952.1
EPRA
NAV (diluted)
9,569.4 8,714.5
Shares diluted
(in m)
370.8 370.2
EPRA
NAV per share
in EUR (diluted)
25.81 23.54
Goodwill GSW (535.1) (535.1)
Shares outstanding
(in m)
337.5 337.4
Adj. NAV per share
(undiluted)
23.52 21.42

1) Current strike price: 17.45 EUR and 21.01 EUR correspond to ~33.4m shares

» Conservative long term capital structure with 1.6% interest costs

Rating A-
/ A3; stable
outlook
LTV 41.7%
ICR1) 5.7x
Ø maturity 8.5 years
% secured
bank
debt
74%
% unsecured
debt
26%
Ø interest
cost
1.6% (~84% hedged)
Key financial
principles
LTV: 35-40%
fully
flexible regarding
secured
or
unsecured
financing
  • Low leverage, long maturities and best in class rating
  • Flexible financing approach to optimize financing costs
  • No significant maturities until and including 2019
  • Convertible bonds accounted 100% as debt
  • Base case LTV 2016 <40% expected2)
  • Target LTV range: 35-40%

1) adjusted EBITDA/ interest expenses, 2) Excluding changes in valuation of financial instruments, 3) based on notional amounts

» Investment update & outlook

» More than EUR 7bn value potential for Deutsche Wohnen with at least EUR 2.2bn value uplift expected for total year 2016

Value potential (EUR bn, incl. capex) 1)

  • Transactional evidence in Berlin for average quality assets points towards:
  • 25-30x in place rent multipliers
  • Prices per sqm EUR >2,000
  • Further significant yield compression in Deutsche Wohnen's Core+ portfolio expected
  • c. EUR 3bn fair value step-up of in the short to medium term expected
  • At least EUR 1.5bn expected by year end 2016
  • Identified EUR 180m rent potential including the contribution from the capex program - offers a further fair value potential of EUR c. 4.5bn
  • Based on today's parameters DW's portfolio should be valued at c. EUR 21bn in the longer term
  • Long-term capital value growth of c. EUR 6bn (excl. capitalized investments) expected to translate into c. 70% NAV growth or c. EUR 18 per share
  • Driven by yield compression in particular in Berlin a further revaluation of the portfolio of at least EUR 2.2bn expected for 2016 (thereof EUR 0.7bn already realized at H1 2016)

1) Based on current annual rents of EUR 700m x 4.4 multiple spread 2) Based on annual Rent potential of EUR 180m x 25.0 multiple

» Long-term Berlin has huge catch up potential compared to other German and European metropolitan areas

Top City ranking in real estate survey 2017 Rank City Rents Capital Values 1 Berlin 2 Hamburg 3 Frankfurt 4 Dublin 5 Munich 17 Paris 27 London

Source: CBRE reports, empirica

Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate ® - Europe 2017

  • Price levels in Berlin - Deutsche Wohnen book values in particular - are significantly below German and other west European areas, offering huge catch-up potential
  • Replacement cost including land are currently at around 3,000 EUR/ sqm (2 x book values)
  • Berlins attractiveness as dynamic Top European investment place underlined by recent surveys

» Investments in best micro locations within Core+ regions as accelerator for rental and value growth

Quality1)
Location
cluster
Units Targeted
capex
EUR m
Pre
capex
Post
capex

Hot
Spot
~13,000 ~450 3.9 1.9

Growth
~14,500 ~500 3.8 1.9

Stable
~2,500 ~70 4.1 2.0
Total1) ~30,000 ~1,000 3.9 1.9
1. Rent potential potential
Pre
capex
Post
capex
Pre capex
EUR/sqm
Targeted capex
EUR/sqm
Mid term market
expectation
EUR/sqm
29% 65% 1,580 ~640 3,500
23% 44% 1,410 ~640 3,000
24% 32% 1,000 ~490 2,400
26% 52% 1,440 ~630 3,200

Note: excluding new construction

  • Focus on best micro locations, predominately in hot spot and growth areas within Core+ regions - quality as precondition to drive rental and thereby value growth
  • Based on detailed portfolio analysis significant step-up of existing capex program from EUR 400m (17,000 units) to EUR 1,000m (30,0000 units), scheduled to be executed by 2021
  • Investments of c. EUR 550m for pro-active refurbishments and c. EUR 450m for modernizations to upgrade the quality of the product underpin the comprehensive investment approach
  • Value enhancing capex measures of EUR 450m can be directly charged to the tenant, translating into an attractive yield on cost of 7-8%
  • Significant investment of EUR 630 per sqm leads to fully modernized investment stock post capex
  • Rent potential will increase from EUR 120m to EUR180m post capex doubling of reversionary potential to c. 50% for the investment portfolio
  • Significant fair value uplift on top of capitalized investments of c. EUR 1,100 per sqm expected (>50% margin on fair value uplift)

1) Scale for technical building condition: 1=new construction, 2=fully modernised existing stock, 3=average quality, 4=short term investment need, >5=significant capex backlog

» New construction pipeline – capitalizing on land bank

New construction pipeline
Location cluster Units Total
investment
(EUR m)
Construction
costs
(per sqm)
Market value
(per sqm)
Market rent
(per sqm/month)
Rent
(EUR m)
Rent
multiple
on cost
Market
value
multiple
New construction 1,800 380 2,500 4,000 12.0 21 17x 28x
Roof extensions/addition 400 70 2,400 4,300 13.0 4 15x 27x
Total mid-term (by 2020) 2,200 450 2,500 4,000 12.2 25 17x 28x
Mid to
long-term
pipeline
~10,000 ~2,000 ~100
  • New construction predominantly located in Berlin and Frankfurt am Main
  • Expected NOI-yield of 5% (FFO yield ~8% overall1))
  • Significant value creation contribution of EUR ~1,500 per sqm translating into ROI of ~60%
  • ~10,000 units planned mid to long-term (mainly in the Berlin region and on existing land bank)

Rent potential of c. EUR 25m mid-term and c. EUR 100m p.a. long-term from new construction

» Bolt-on acquisitions: Focus on selected value enhancing acquisitions but at lower pace compared to past years

  • No attractive acquisition opportunities in the listed segment
  • Acquisition of quality portfolios with strong anchor in Core+ markets, however more challenging as expected development largely reflected in price considerations of sellers
  • Capital allocation decisions currently biased towards internal growth - targeted capex measures allow Deutsche Wohnen to capture value upside margin itself
  • EUR 40bn nursing market expected to grow significantly in coming years with estimated additional 300,000 beds required by 2030
  • Focus on acquisition of assets, preferably in combination with operations to enhance yields
  • Adherence to strict acquisition criteria good location for nursing property ≠ good location for residential property
  • Contribution of nursing business not expected to exceed c. 15% of group EBITDA in the medium term1)

  • Attractive bolt-on acquisitions of c. 640 units in Core+ regions for c. EUR 100m or EUR 2,000 per sqm

  • High quality, fully refurbished portfolio with attractive rent levels

  • Acquisition of Pegasus portfolio with c. 4,100 places for c. EUR 420m or gross yield of 6.5%

  • High quality facilities in good locations predominantly in Western Germany

Attractive pipeline of additional smaller bolt-on acquisitions in residential and nursing of c. EUR 200m

1) Current EBITDA contribution of nursing business, pro forma for the recently announced Pegasus acquisition, amounts to c. 7%

Residential

» Executive summary: Key strategic priorities to accelerate rental and value growth

» NAV guidance increased for 2016

Guidance 20161)
2015 9M 2016 Old New Comments
EPRA NAV per
share (undiluted)
23.01 25.10 >26 ~30
Based on transactional evidence at least EUR 2.2bn
expected to be realized for 2016 (EUR 0.7bn already
realized with H1 2016)

Excluding changes in goodwill impairment and
valuation of financial instruments and convertible
bonds
FFO I
(in EUR m)
303 301.4 >380 >380
Excluding recently acquired nursing portfolio with
transfer in Q4 2016/Q1 2017 (Pegasus)

Acquisition expected to contribute c. EUR 23m (annual
run rate)
Dividend per
share
0.54 n/a 0.73 0.73
Based on 65% pay-out ratio of FFO I and 337.5m
shares outstanding
LTV 43%2) 41.7% <40% <40%
LTV target range reduced from 35-45% to 35-40%

Commitment to leverage discipline in light of asset
appreciation

1) Without acquisitions and opportunistic portfolio disposal as well as excluding changes in goodwill impairment and valuation of financial instruments, based on current number of outstanding shares 2) Pro forma acquisitions

» Q&A

» Appendix 1 – nursing segment presentation

» Overview of German nursing market

Source: Federal Statistical Office 2015, BBSR (2015), Georg Consulting (2016)

Source: Federal Statistical Office 2013

  • Germany is the biggest nursing market in Europe with c. EUR 40bn annual spend, of which c. EUR 28bn inpatient and EUR 12bn outpatient nursing care
  • Presently c. 2.6m care dependent people in Germany, of which c. 764,000 or c. 30% permanently live in one of c. 13,000 nursing facilities with nearly 900,000 beds
  • The likelihood of requiring professional care significantly increases above the age of 75

» Key demographic trends in Germany

Nursing care market driven by (irreversible) demographic trends - increasing demand for social, medical and nursing services

for nursing homes

  • Main reasons for aging German population are:
  • Decreasing birth rates
  • Ageing of former baby boomer generations
  • Increasing life expectancy
  • Until 2030 the age group >80 years is expected to increase by more than 60%
  • Approx. 8% of the German population will be >80 years in 2030
  • Increased demand for specialized facilities to serve e.g. Alzheimer's disease / dementia
  • The requirement for professional service structures in nursing care are further boosted by ongoing trends:
  • Increasing mobility
  • Bigger distance between family members

Source: Federal Statistical Office, 2015

» Outlook for German nursing market

  • By 2030, an estimated additional 800,000 people will be in need of care compared to 2015
  • The market for nursing homes remains a growth market with estimated 300,000 additional beds required by 2030, which will require significant capital investments in the market

» Forecast - required additional nursing home beds by federal state

Additional demand for care beds by 2030

Additional demand for care beds by 2030 (nursing home ratio 2013 +5%)²

Source: Federal Statistical Office 2015, Georg Consulting (2016)

  • In all federal states and in almost all urban districts strong demand for additional nursing homes beds
  • Good location for nursing property ≠ good location for residential property

1) Scenario assumes constant proportion of the number of people in need of care to the number of nursing homes as in 2013 (basic ratio); 2) Scenario assumes 5 percentage-point increase in in the number of people in need of care compared to 2013

» Market structure – nursing home operators

Source: Federal Statistical Office in Germany 2013

Operator # of
facilities
#
of beds
Market
share (%)
Occupancy
(%)
Korian 228 24,775 3.1% 86.8%
Pro Seniore 97 13,101 1.6% 81.1%
Alloheim 124 12,169 1.5% 88.3%
Orpea
/ Silver Care
129 10,979 1.4% 91.6%
Kursana 96 9,241 1.2% 91.0%
Vitanas 58 7,582 0.9% 88.8%
Azurit 76 7,031 0.9% 83.7%
Source: Savills: Nursing homes market Germany 2016 (August 2016)

Top private operators (by # of beds)

  • Nursing home operator market is very fragmented
  • Top ten private operators only account for c. 13% of overall market (measured by number of beds)
  • Non-profit and public operators manage c. 60%
  • Many small (family) operators, often with less than 10 facilities and capex backlog
  • Occupancy levels vary widely across operators and regions
  • Average occupancy rate of only c. 85%
  • Free capacity in many instances does not fulfil today's standards for nursing homes (i.e.: free capacity ≠ available capacity)
  • Significant consolidation trend among private operators in recent years
  • 3 of the top 5 operators are international companies (France: Korian and Orpea; USA: Alloheim/Carlyle)
  • Consolidation is expected to continue and to accelerate professionalism (and therewith profitability) of overall sector
  • Private operators increase their capacity the fastest (by acquisition or greenfield projects); growth of non-profit operators limited by funding constraints

» Market structure – nursing home properties

Source: Savills, 2016

  • Nursing home property market accounts for c. 1-3% of overall commercial real estate transaction volume
  • Nursing home properties offer attractive yields at low risk:
  • Fundamentals for niche sector remain strong and promising for the long-term
  • Transaction prices are still demonstrating significant yield premiums to comparable asset classes
  • Nursing market offers value catch-up potential from widening of spread vs. other asset classes
  • Very limited number of insolvencies in past years underscore low risk profile of sector
  • Transaction volumes increased significantly over past years and 2016 pointing towards a record year
  • Professional investors represented largest purchaser group over last years
  • Key limiting factor of further increased transaction volumes is scarcity of supply despite positive macro outlook

» Overview of regulatory environment in Germany (1/2)

60% 25% 15% Nursing services costs Accomodation & catering costs Investment costs Standard daily cost breakdown of nursing homes

Source: Knight Frank Research, 2014

Source: Knight Frank Research, 2014

  • Germany is one of few countries which requires all citizens to have either public or private long-term care insurance
  • Care Funds (Pflegekassen) provide a cost cover for care related services to the operator, based on the level of patient care necessary
  • Care Funds supported by mandatory social insurance as provided by care insurance law1)
  • Funded at a contribution rate of 2.35% of gross salary increasing by 0.2% as of 2017 (childless employees pay an additional contribution of 0.25%)
  • Until December 2016 there are 3 levels of care; starting from 2017 there will be 5 levels with increased funding of higher dependent people
  • In addition to national regulation, there are different regional legislations on fit-out standards, multioccupancy ratios minimum room measurement and employee skills (not homogeneous)

Germany has one of the most stable funding systems for long-term care in Europe with currently c. EUR 7bn funding surplus

1) Pflegeversicherungsgesetz

» Overview of regulatory environment in Germany (2/2)

New homes
authorization

No formal permission (except for building laws) required to set up new nursing homes

Operators entitled to enter into new supply contract with Care Funds (Pflegekassen) as soon
as structural requirements for operating a nursing home are met
Quality
requirements
Independent operators (MDK1)

) check process structure and performance quality

Frequency of quality assurance audits of outpatient and inpatient care has historically
increased

Mandatory publication of MDK quality reports of each nursing home planned through latest
regulatory initiatives to increase transparency
Pricing &
financing

Prices for nursing care services strictly regulated and negotiated with authorities and revised
every 1-2 years, usually above cost inflation

Total cost for a nursing home place is funded by the respective resident, care fund and, if
required, social welfare (depending on residents' income)

Vast majority of nursing services costs is financed by care fund; level of reimbursements
are defined by laws, depending on level of care required

Accommodation & catering as well as investment costs are , in principle, financed by
resident (or social welfare system); investment rates are set freely for resident not
receiving public aid

Operators are free to generate additional revenues from secondary services, financed by
respective resident

1) MDK – German Health Insurance Medical Service

» Deutsche Wohnen nursing business at a glance

Operating management via Katharinenhof brand

  • Above industry average quality of services as demonstrated by very good ratings granted by MDK1)
  • Assisted living facilities offer rental apartments to senior citizens along with an extensive range of services
  • Full inpatient nursing care promotes an active lifestyle for patients in exalted quality
  • Outpatient care services offer assistance and care for the elderly in their households

  • Beginning of 2015, the operational business of Katharinenhof was transferred into a partnership structure

  • Deutsche Wohnen has a 49% stake; fully consolidated
  • 51% partner is a family office
  • Currently 20 facilities with more than 2,000 beds are managed by the Katharinenhof partnership
  • Deutsche Wohnen 100% owns 19 facilities of the Katharinenhof properties with a fair value of c. EUR 161m
  • In August 2016, Deutsche Wohnen acquired 28 facilities with more than 4,100 beds, thus expanding its holdings in this segment significantly
  • The acquisition makes Deutsche Wohnen one of the leading providers in Germany of high-quality residential and nursing facilities for elderly people

Since almost 20 years Deutsche Wohnen plays an active role in the area of nursing and assisted living

MDK scores are between 1.0-1.2 corresponding to an overall industry ranking of 3rd place

» Portfolio details pro forma recent acquisition

Distribution by operators

» Portfolio images (1/2)

Uferpalais

Im Schlossgarten Wolkenstein

Uferpalais

» Portfolio images (2/2)

Heinrich-Lassen

Am Lunapark

Wilsdruff Wilsdruff

» Competitive strength and strategy


Active management of care levels to enhance profitability mix

Fragmented market with promising fundamental outlook offers room for consolidation

Attractive yield spread compared to comparable asset classes
Further expansion

Focus on acquisition of real estate properties, preferably in combination with operational
via M&A and/or
management to enhance yields
greenfield projects

Adherence to strict acquisition criteria focussing on quality, market positioning and expected
value upside
Significant

Overall contribution of nursing business not to exceed c. 15% of group EBITDA in the medium
contribution to
term
profitability

Long-lasting expertise on both, the asset as well as operational side as demonstrated by best
in class occupancy ratios for self managed facilities
Key competitive

Proven track record for successful integration of acquired business (e.g. Lebenswerk
2012 and
advantages
Uferpalais
2013)

Low cost of funding

» Overview of "Pegasus" acquisition (1/2)

Object of
purchase

28 nursing (c. 3,700 places) and
assisted living facilities (c. 400
places) with 180k sqm

Only assets acquired, not the
operating
business
Pricing & deal
structure

Purchase price: EUR 420m

6.5% gross yield

Asset deal
Lease
revenues

EUR 27.3m p.a.
Margins
(run rate)

Expected EBITDA margin of
c.
95%
WALT
Weighted average lease term of c.
13 years (c. 24 years including
extension option)
Expected
closing

Q4 2016

Q1 2017
  • Facilities of high quality in good locations predominantly in West Germany
  • Good market positioning from a price/ performance perspective
  • More than 75% of buildings constructed after 2000
  • Well-known operators with proven track record and high credit-worthiness as lead covenant
  • Mature operations with avg. occupancy of 87%, in line with German average
  • Among top 10 operators in Germany
  • Approx. 80% of lease agreements structured as triple net contracts incl. indexation
  • Contracts provide for defined investments to be undertaken by lessee to maintain quality of assets during lease term
  • No material capex backlog
  • All but one lease contracts linked to German CPI

Executed on communicated strategy to grow nursing and assisted living business – attractive add-on business with high earnings contribution at low risk profile

» Overview of "Pegasus" acquisition (2/2)

Pro Seniore Residenz (Oberau, Bavaria) Pro Seniore Residenz (Kempten, Bavaria)

Pro Seniore Residenz (Radolfzell, Baden-Württemberg) Sozialkonzept Cäcilienhof (Garbsen, Lower Saxony)

» Successful Pegasus acquisition will drive earnings growth further

  • Expected EBITDA contribution including acquired nursing portfolio of EUR ~43m (annual run rate), translating into of RoCE of c. 7%
  • FFO I contribution of EUR ~36m (annual run rate) expected, translating into an FFO I yield of c. 10% based on Deutsche Wohnen's capital structure with c. 40% LTV

» Appendix – general section

» Focused and increasing investments into the portfolio

9M
2016
9M
2015
EUR m EUR m
Maintenance
(expensed through p&l)
64.4 58.9
Modernization
(capitalized on balance
sheet)
83.5 55.6
Total 147.9 114.5
Total EUR/ sqm1) 20.09 16.77
Capitalization
rate
56.5% 48.6%

1) Based on the quarterly average area

» Bridge from adjusted EBITDA to profit

in EUR m 9M 2016 9M 2015
EBITDA (adjusted) 451.4 402.2
Depreciation (4.6) (4.1)
At equity
valuation
1.5 1.5
1)
Financial result
(net)
(88.5) (96.8)
EBT (adjusted) 359.8 302.8
Valuation
properties
731.3 705.0
One-offs (6.4) (83.4)
Valuation
SWAP and
convertible
bonds
(155.2) (139.0)
EBT 929.5 785.4
Current
taxes
(21.3) (21.0)
Deferred
taxes
(269.8) (242.7)
Profit 638.4 521.7
Profit attributable
to
the
shareholders
of
the
parent
company
618.2 500.2
per share2)
Earnings
1.83 1.59
in EUR m 9M 2016 9M 2015
Interest expenses (79.3) (94.9)
In % of
rents
~15% ~20%
Non-cash interest
expenses
(9.9) (2.5)
Interest income 0.7 0.6
Financial
result
(net)
(88.5) (96.8)

Thereof EUR (10.9m) from valuation of derivatives and EUR (144.3) m from convertible bonds

1) Adjusted for Valuation of SWAPs and convertible bonds; 2) Based on weighted average shares outstanding (9M-16: 337.44m; 9M-15: 315.27m)

» Summary balance sheet

Assets Equity and Liabilities
in EUR m 30/09/2016 31/12/2015 in EUR m 30/09/2016 31/12/2015
Investment properties 13,481.7 11,859.1 Total equity 7,315.5 6,872.0
Other non-current
assets
630.7 614.3 Financial liabilities 4,466.7 3,780.4
Deferred
tax
assets
346.4 325.5 Convertibles 1,109.2 965.4
Non current
assets
14,458.8 12,798.9 Bonds 497.4 498.3
Land and
buildings
held
for
sale
381.3 66.9 Tax
liabilities
54.4 37.5
Trade receivables 20.5 13.4 Deferred
tax
liabilities
1,396.4 1,110.2
Other current
assets
127.5 159.3 Derivatives 60.0 44.8
Cash
and
cash equivalents
277.8 661.6 Other liabilities 366.3 391.5
Current
assets
807.1 901.2 Total liabilities 7,950.4 6,828.1
Total assets 15,265.9 13,700.1 Total equity
and
liabilities
15,265.9 13,700.1

Investment properties represent ~88% of total assets

Strong balance sheet structure offering comfort throughout market cycles

» THE BERLIN-PORTFOLIO AT A GLANCE

» Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements including assumptions, opinions and views of Deutsche Wohnen or quoted from third party sources. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could cause actual results, financial positions, the development or the performance of Deutsche Wohnen to differ materially from the estimations expressed or implied herein. Deutsche Wohnen does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor do they accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this presentation or the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions, contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein, and accordingly, none of Deutsche Wohnen AG or any of its affiliates (including subsidiary undertakings) or any of such person's officers, directors or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. Deutsche Wohnen does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation.

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