AI assistant
Axactor SE — Investor Presentation 2022
Oct 27, 2022
3549_rns_2022-10-27_96612f67-1ed3-49e9-9c9f-807468814fb7.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Q3 2022
27 October 2022
Q3 highlights
Financial update
Outlook
Q&A
Financial highlights for the quarter
- Continued EBITDA margin expansion reaching 51% for the quarter
-
EBITDA of EUR 30m, up from EUR 13m last year
-
Cash EBITDA growth of 22% y-o-y
-
Cash EBITDA of EUR 54m, up from EUR 44m last year
-
Profit after tax of EUR 10m, up from EUR -2m last year
-
Stable annualized return on equity of 10%
-
NPL investments of EUR 69m for the quarter
- Already secured investments of more than 2x replacement capex in 2022
- Investing at an attractive Gross IRR of 20% YTD compared to 16% on the backbook1
Axactor is pursuing a strategy based on three strategic levers
| Blending the book | • Solve old claims with low gross IRR and replace them with new higher gross IRR claims • Accelerate blending and secure growth through |
|---|---|
| investing significantly above replacement capex | |
| Cost leadership | • Axactor was incepted to disrupt the industry on cost-to-collect |
| • Currently investing extensively in data-driven valuation and -operation to excel further |
|
| Best at what we do | Targeted focus to become best at what we do1 • Industry: Bank & finance • Debt type: B2C, unsecured |
| • Markets: Organic growth |
Third quarter is a continuation of the growth seen throughout 2022
NPL ERC and company acquisitions (EUR billion)
NPL gross IRR on the total book is steadily increasing
- Current market prices significantly more favorable compared to the total book
1) End of period 2) Committed NPL investments 3) Everything else equal
6
NPL investment estimate of EUR 250 - 300m for the year reiterated – securing material growth on NPL
NPL investments (EUR million)
NPL investment estimate of EUR 250 - 300m for the year
- Invested EUR 69m during the quarter
- Need to close additional NPL investments of EUR 18 - 68m to reach the full year estimate
Already secured investments of more than 2x replacement capex in 2022
Axactor with record low NPL cost-to-collect YTD 2022
- Materializing in an EBITDA percentage among the best in the industry
1) Cost is calculated as segment OPEX + allocation of unallocated OPEX and Depreciation & Amortization (excluding amortization of NPL portfolios). Segment OPEX is used as allocation key. Income is calculated as Total income adjusted for revaluations to show income excluding one-time effects based on changes in
future expectations. Additional adjustments made on two peers to make numbers comparable, e.g. due to reporting numbers as a bank. 2) Peer numbers for 2021, Axactor YTD 2022
3) Peers: FactSet as of 7 Oct, 2022; Broker estimates. Axactor = YTD 2022 continuing operations
8
Financial results in perspective
- Positive development on all key financial metrics YTD
Q3 highlights
Financial update
Outlook
Q&A
Group: Continued growth on gross revenue y-o-y
Gross revenue (EUR million)
- Gross revenue is up 17% y-o-y from a weak quarter last year
- NPL gross revenue growth of 17% y-o-y
- 3PC gross revenue growth of 20% y-o-y
- Gross revenue is down from last quarter as Q3 is seasonally weaker than Q2
NPL segment: Total income growth of 63% with stable margins
NPL Total income and CM% (EUR million, and %)
Total income growth drivers
- Gross revenue growth of 17%
- Collection performance of 99%
- Reduced amortization rate following the revaluation in Q4 2021 and higher gross revenue for the quarter
3PC segment: Total income growth of 20% compared to last year
3PC Total income and CM% (EUR million and %)
- Total income growth of 20% y-o-y driven by the acquisition of C.R. Service
- Marginal organic growth on 3PC driven by Spain and Italy
- Underlying margin is slightly better in Q3-22 compared to last year, when adjusting for onetime effects
Group: Continued EBITDA margin expansion and Cash EBITDA growth of 22% compared to last year
Cash EBITDA (EUR million)
Rising interest rates is expected to increase interest expense on borrowings with EUR 2.1m in Q4
Quarterly interest expense on borrowings (EUR million)
Annualized ROE for the quarter in line with YTD results underpinning the stable financial results in 2022
Return on equity to shareholders
Axactor has a robust balance sheet positioned for growth
| Equity | • Satisfying equity ratio of 29% |
|---|---|
| Liquidity | • Available cash of EUR ~20m • Unused funding line of EUR ~100m on the revolving credit facility |
| Covenant headroom | • Satisfying headroom to bond covenants • Loan to value of 72% vs. the covenant of 75% |
| Funding lines | • No maturities until the end of 2023 |
| Investment capacity | • Estimated investment capacity of EUR ~320m in 2022, well above replacement capex of EUR 108m |
Q3 highlights
Financial update
Outlook
Q&A
Outlook
19
Increased cost of funding1
- Expect interest expense on borrowings to increase by EUR 2.1m from third to fourth quarter
- 1pp further increase in interest rates is estimated to increase quarterly interest expense on borrowings by EUR 1.8m
Mixed outlook on backbook collections
- Rising inflation and interest rates might put pressure on debtors' ability to repay and postpone collections
- Low unemployment rates, increasing salaries and government aid packages expected to partly offset challenges
Growth and margin expansion on NPL
- Expect to deploy EUR 250 300m in NPL portfolios in 2022
- Expect margin expansion driven by attractive gross IRR levels and improved economies of scale over time
Financial targets
Axactor is pleased to announce that financial targets will be published on 11 January 2023
The targets will be presented in a global investor webcast at 10:00 CET
Furthermore, the company invites all debt and equity analysts to a physical lunch meeting at 12:00 CET
Q3 highlights
Financial update
Outlook
Q&A
Supporting information
NPL investment commitments of EUR 113m next 12 months
Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)
ERC increasing by 11% y-o-y driven by increased NPL investments in 2022
ERC development (EUR million)
Forward ERC profile by year (EUR million)
3PC volumes by geographic region
3PC Total income split by geographic region
- Spain accounting for 46% of total income on 3PC
- Italy share of Total income increased to 17% following the acquisition of C.R. Service
Discontinued operations
- REO book value reduced to EUR 13m ultimo Q3
REO Total income and net profit1 (EUR million and %)
REO book value (EUR million)
REO number of units
Bond covenants (1/2)
- Secured LTV is increasing as bond repurchase is funded by drawing on the secured RCF
Loan-to-value1- Covenant ≤75%
(Total portfolio book value divided by net interest-bearing debt)
Secured Loan-to-value1 - Covenant ≤65% (Total portfolio book value divided by secured net interest-bearing debt)
Bond covenants (2/2)
- Leverage ratio increasing due to 1) investment ramp-up and 2) discontinued operations
Leverage ratio1- Covenant ≤4.0x (Net interest-bearing debt divided by LTM Pro-forma adjusted cash EBITDA
Interest coverage ratio1 - Covenant ≥4.0x (Pro-forma adjusted cash EBITDA divided by net interest expenses)
Terms and abbreviations
Abbreviations
SPV Special purpose vehicle VIU Value in use
WACC Weighted average cost of capital
VPS Verdipapirsentralen/Norwegian central securities depository
| 3PC Third-party collection |
|
|---|---|
| AGM Annual general meeting |
|
| APM Alternative performance measures |
|
| ARM Accounts receivable management |
|
| B2B Business to business |
|
| B2C Business to consumer |
|
| BoD Board of Directors |
|
| Terms BS Consolidated statement of financial position (balance sheet) |
|
| CF Consolidated statement of cash flows |
|
| Active forecast Forecast of estimated remaining collection on NPL portfolios CGU Cash generating unit |
|
| Board Board of directors CM Contribution margin Cash EBITDA margin Cash EBITDA as a percentage of gross revenue |
|
| D&A Depreciation and amortization |
|
| Chair Chair of the board of directors Dopex Direct operating expenses |
|
| Contribution margin (%) Total operating expenses (excluding SG&A, IT and corporate cost) as a percentage of total EBIT Operating profit/Earnings before interest and tax income |
|
| EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization Collection performance Gross collection on NPL portfolios in relation to active forecast, including sale of |
|
| ECL Expected credit loss repossessed assets in relation to book value |
|
| EGM Extraordinary general meeting Equity ratio Total equity as a percentage of total equity and liabilities |
|
| EPS Earnings per share Forward flow agreement Agreement for future acquisitions of NPLs at agreed prices and delivery |
|
| ERC Estimated remaining collection Gross IRR The credit adjusted interest rate that makes the net present value of ERC equal to NPL book |
|
| ESG Environmental, social and governance value, calculated using monthly cash flows over a 180-months period |
|
| ESOP Employee stock ownership plan Group Axactor ASA and all its subsidiaries |
|
| FSA The financial supervisory authority NPL amortization rate NPL amortization divided by collection on own NPL portfolios |
|
| FTE Full time equivalent |
|
| One off portfolio acquisition Acquisition of a single portfolio of NPLs GHG Greenhouse gas emissions |
|
| Opex Total operating expenses IFRS International financial reporting standards |
|
| Recovery rate Portion of the original debt repaid LTV Loan to value |
|
| Replacement capex Acquisitions of new NPLs to keep the same book value of NPLs from last period NCI Non-controlling interests |
|
| Repossession Taking possession of property due to default on payment of loans secured by property NPL Non-performing loan |
|
| Repossessed assets Property repossessed from secured non-performing loans OB Outstanding balance, the total amount Axactor can collect on claims under management, |
|
| SG&A, IT and corporate cost Total operating expenses for overhead functions, such as HR, finance and legal etc including outstanding principal, interest and fees |
|
| Solution rate OCI Consolidated statement of other comprehensive income Accumulated paid principal amount for the period divided by accumulated collectable principal |
|
| P&L Consolidated statement of profit or loss amount for the period. Usually expressed on a monthly basis |
|
| PCI Purchased credit impaired Active forecast Forecast of estimated remaining collection on NPL portfolios |
|
| PPA Purchase price allocations |
|
| REO Real estate owned |
|
| ROE Return on equity |
|
| SDG Sustainable development goal |
|
| SG&A Selling, general & administrative |