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Axactor SE

Investor Presentation Feb 24, 2021

3549_rns_2021-02-24_f9a242d0-66b7-4234-828c-36e79d02ae04.pdf

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Q4 & FY 2020

24 February 2021

Q4 Financials

  • Positive trend on Gross revenue in all segments
  • Several items affecting Q4 both positively and negatively
  • Annualized Return on Equity excluding non-controlling interest of 4% in Q4

Refinancing and equity issue

  • EUR 50 million in new equity raised1
  • Reduced funding cost
  • All key debt maturities extended to 2024
  • Simplifying the structure

Strategy update • Revised vision and strategy developed

Outlook

  • Axactor is affected by Covid-19 and will see changes in performance positively and negatively – as the pandemic unfolds
  • Underlying factors we can affect point towards increased ROE. Examples are reduced financing cost, margin expansion and normalization of the tax rate

Key Financial Highlights

All numbers in EUR

All business segments with positive gross revenue development in Q4

We are delivering a meaningful margin expansion by increasing gross revenues combined with driving down operating expenses

  • Axactor industry leading cost-to-collect on NPL portfolios in 20191
  • Cost position further improved YoY in Q4
  • Gross revenue growth of 7%
  • Personnel expenses reduced by 9% and operating expenses by 1%

NPL with gross revenue growth - But negative revaluations put pressure on margins

NPL Gross Revenue and CM1% (EUR million and %)

  • Increased amortization level as collections improve
  • 40% in Q4 2020 (34% in Q3, 28% in Q2)
  • Net negative revaluations of EUR 8.9m burdening Total income in Q4

NPL active forecast aligned with current performance - Supporting correct portfolio valuations going forward

Active forecast versus cash collected1

Pre Covid-19 forecast Active forecast in 2020 Current active forecast Cash Collected

  • Cash collected in Q4 did not meet the active forecast
  • Current active forecast aligned with current performance
  • Historic underperformance assumed lost – prudent approach

3PC Development - Improving trend in both revenues and margins

3PC income and CM1% (EUR million and %)

  • Revenue improving compared to Q2 pandemic low-point
  • Still burdened by the pandemic down 11% YoY
  • Existing contracts with lower volumes as banks and governments temporarily release pressure on debtors
  • Sales processes takes longer time during the pandemic
  • Highest margins recorded since Q2 2019
  • driven by cost reductions

REO Development (run-off segment) - Revenue and margins improving

REO income and CM1% (EUR million and %)

  • Revenue and margins improving compared to Q2 pandemic low-point
  • External valuation more positive than expected
  • EUR 5.9m release of impairment accrual in Q4
  • Remaining EUR 16m of impairment accrual done in first half (originally EUR 27m) now a permanent impairment on an asset-by-asset basis
  • Book value at year-end of EUR 79m
  • Axactor exposure of ~40% due to minority interest

Summary: Total income burdened by revaluations. Cash EBITDA with positive trend from Q2-lowpoint

Net profit after tax of EUR 3.3 million for the quarter

Figures in EUR million Q4-20 Q4-19 FY 2020 FY 2019
EBITDA 21.3 23.8 35.9 92.1
Depreciation & amortization -3.0 -2.8 -10.8 -10.1
EBIT 18.4 21.0 25.0 82.0
Net financial items -17.7 -12.5 -53.4 -49.4
Profit before tax 0.7 8.5 -28.4 32.6
Tax expense 2.7 -2.0 -2.7 -11.7
Net profit after tax 3.3 6.5 -31.1 21.0
of which attributable to non-controlling interests 0.6 1.3 -15.9 4.6
of which attributable to equity holders 2.7 5.2 -15.2 16.3
Return on Equity, excluding non-controlling
interests, annualized 3.6 % 7.5 % -5.1 % 6.0 %
  • Interest cost includes EUR 7 million write-down of capitalized loan fees due to re-financing
  • Net tax income from recognition of deferred tax assets
  • Return on equity, excluding non-controlling interests, of 3.6%

Several significant items affecting Q4 result

Excluding
Figures in EUR million Reported A B C D E A-E
Gross revenue 94.9 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.0
NPL portfolio amortization & revaluation -36.4 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -26.1
Total income 58.5 -3.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.8
REO cost of sale (incl. impairment) -6.0 0.0 0.0 -5.9 0.0 0.0 -11.9
Other operating expenses -31.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -31.2
Total operating expenses -37.1 0.0 0.0 -5.9 0.0 0.0 -43.0
EBITDA 21.3 -3.0 10.3 -5.9 0.0 0.0 22.8
Depreciation & amortization -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0
EBIT 18.4 -3.0 10.3 -5.9 0.0 0.0 19.8
Net financial items -17.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 -3.7 -14.3
Profit before tax 0.7 -3.0 10.3 -5.9 7.1 -3.7 5.5

Five items affecting Q4 2020 result

A - Net change in value of forward flow contratcs, treated as financial instrument

B - Net revaluation of NPL portfolios, excluding catch up 2 tail

C - Release of REO impairment accrual

D - Write-down of capitalized loan fees, not including ordinary amortization amount

E - Net FX effects included in net financial items, realized and unrealized

On 9 December 2020 we announced a major multi-step financial transaction to improve our competitive position

Element Key details Simplify Maturity Capacity
Equity issue
An equity issue of EUR 30 million

A subsequent repair offering of EUR 20 million
Bond
refinancing

Early redemption of AXA01

Refinanced with the issuance of a new three year EUR 200 million bond
(AXACTOR02)
Bank
refinancing

New three year facility of EUR 620 million

Consolidating the current facilities in Axactor and Axactor Invest

Improving bank financing cost with approx. 0.7%-points on a pro forma basis
for YTD '201
Roll-up of
SPV

Axactor to acquire Geveran's stake in Axactor Invest for a consideration of
50 million shares at NOK 8

The transaction increases EPS with 16% for Q3 on a pro forma basis

Refinancing of the Axactor Invest mezzanine of EUR 140 million with maturity
6 months after AXACTOR02

All maturities refinanced to 2024 ensuring a robust debt maturity schedule

15 1) Excluding Nomura facility and local Italian debt; 2) EUR 120m drawn; 3) EUR 410m drawn by end of Q4; 4) EUR 530m drawn by end of Q4

On a pro-forma basis will the transactions increase shareholder's equity with EUR ~100m to an equity ratio of 31%

Our strategy consist of three pillars

Bank & Finance

• The preferred partner for Banks and Financial (B&F) institutions

GrowthProfitable organic growth to harvest economies of scale

OneAxactor • Continued emphasis on building the best debt collection platform in Europe

How will we pursue profitable growth?

Markets

  • Targeting organic growth within our existing markets to harvest economies of scale
  • We have carefully chosen and entered attractive European markets
  • Sound margins, well functioning legal systems and large NPL transaction volumes

Products

  • Our core products are NPL and 3PC the very essence of debt collection
  • We are targeting fresh and unsecured consumer debt
  • Sound margins, lower risk (high volumes, low principals) and perfect operational fit

Industries

  • Focus on driving growth in the Bank and Finance segment
  • Sound margins and where our capabilities enable us to stand out from the competition

94% of Axactor portfolio book value exposure within our strategic core

Our number one goal is to increase Return on Equity - And start paying dividends

Return on Equity excl. minorities per quarter1 –Total and excluding REO's2

  • Return on Equity (ROE) excl. minorities, excl. run-off segment REO's, reached 11% before Covid-19
  • ROE in 2020 heavily affected by the pandemic
  • Expect ROE to improve over time as we improve the underlying business and as society slowly defeats the pandemic

Identified key Return on Equity factors going forward

  • Vaccination normalize working conditions for our employees and normalize debtor's willingness and ability to resolve their debt
  • Increased 3PC volumes and expected lower NPL prices as part of the Covid-19 aftermath
  • Expect continued margin expansion as ongoing performance improvement initiatives materialize
  • Reduced financing costs and increased investment capacity following refinancing and equity raise
  • Gradual normalization of the tax rate towards an estimate of 25%

  • Covid-19 increase pressure on our employees working on home office

  • Covid-19 increase pressure on our debtor's short-term willingness and ability to resolved their debt
  • Operational performance issues

-

+

Q4 Financials

  • Positive trend on Gross revenue in all segments
  • Several items affecting Q4 both positively and negatively
  • Annualized Return on Equity excluding non-controlling interest of 4% in Q4

Refinancing and equity issue

  • EUR 50 million in new equity raised1
  • Reduced funding cost
  • All key debt maturities extended to 2024
  • Simplifying the structure

Strategy update • Revised vision and strategy developed

Outlook

  • Axactor is affected by Covid-19 and will see changes in performance positively and negatively – as the pandemic unfolds
  • Underlying factors we can affect point towards increased ROE. Examples are reduced financing cost, margin expansion and normalization of the tax rate

Supporting information

NPL portfolio

Q4 2020

NPL with gross revenue growth - But negative revaluations put pressure on margins

NPL Gross Revenue and CM1% (EUR million and %)

  • Increased amortization level as collections improve
  • 40% in Q4 2020 (34% in Q3, 28% in Q2)
  • Net negative revaluations of EUR 8.9m burdening Total income in Q4

Somewhat slower recovery in collection in Q4 than was expected in Q2, underlying trend is still positive

Actual collection vs. active forecast1 (LTM, rolling)

112%
108%
106%
90% 97%
94%
95%
95%
101%
100%
101% 98%
92%
97%
93%
96%
Q2
-17
Q4
-17
Q2
-18
Q4
-18
Q2
-19
Q4
-19
Q2
-20
Q4
-20
  • Q4 collection performance of 95%
  • LTM collection performance of 96%
  • Revaluations booked in Q4 2020 due to lower expected collection level in 2021 and 2022
  • Long term average performance expected to fluctuate around 100%

Axactor invested EUR 208m in NPL portfolios in 2020

- Prioritizing high IRR portfolios, and expecting significant volumes to be offered in H2 2021

Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)

  • Total investment of EUR 196m in forward flow contracts in 2020
  • Estimated Q1 2021 forward flow capex of EUR ~ 14m
  • Increased focus on one-off transactions to reduce liquidity risk

ERC growing at a steady pace despite revaluations in Q4

ERC development (EUR million)

Forward ERC profile by year (EUR million)

3PC

Q4 2020

3PC Development - Improving trend in both revenues and margins

3PC income and CM1% (EUR million and %)

  • Revenue improving compared to Q2 pandemic low-point
  • Still burdened by the pandemic down 11% YoY
  • Existing contracts with lower volumes as banks and governments temporarily release pressure on debtors
  • Sales processes takes longer time during the pandemic
  • Highest margins recorded since Q2 2019
  • driven by cost reductions

3PC volumes by geographic region

3PC total income split by geographic region

  • Revenue increase of 22% from Q3 2020
  • Spain increasing revenues by 36% QoQ
  • Germany FY 2020 revenue share of 21%, up 4ppt from 2019
  • Nordics accounting for 22% of revenue in 2020

REO portfolio (run-off segment)

Q4 2020

REO Development (run-off segment) - Revenue and margins improving

REO income and CM1% (EUR million and %)

  • Revenue and margins improving compared to Q2 pandemic low-point
  • External valuation more positive than expected
  • EUR 5.9m release of impairment accrual in Q4
  • Remaining EUR 16m of impairment accrual done in first half (originally EUR 27m) now a permanent impairment on an asset-by-asset basis
  • Book value at year-end of EUR 79m
  • Axactor exposure of ~40% due to minority interest

REO portfolio moving towards the tail

  • Total portfolio investments of EUR 286m*
  • Last portfolio acquisition in Q3 2018
  • 65% decline in book value since peak
  • Limited tail risk
  • Axactor owns ~40% of the REO book

  • A total of 8,653 assets acquired*

  • 5,959 assets sold

(EUR million)

Current book
Asset class # assets % of total Book value % of total
Housing 1,101 41 % 42.5 54 %
Parking, annex etc. 903 34 % 3.4 4 %
Land 274 10 % 4.6 6 %
Commercial 416 15 % 29.7 38 %
Elimination 0 0 % -1.4 -2 %
Total 2,694 100 % 78.8 100 %
Originally acquired
Asset class # assets % of total Book value % of total
Housing 4,030 47 % 194.8 68 %
Parking, annex etc. 3,396 39 % 15.8 6 %
Land 356 4 % 9.3 3 %
Commercial 871 10 % 66.4 23 %
Total 8,653 100 % 286.2 100 %
  • Housing represent 54% of current book value
  • Limited exposure to commercial assets
  • Average book value per remaining asset EUR 29k
  • Average book value per sold asset of EUR 31k
  • Average sale price per sold asset of EUR 38k

Appendix

Refinancing structure

Simplifying financing structure while providing the basis for a resilient long term funding profile

39 1) Including EUR 75m accordion option; 2) Consisting of new equity from issuance of 50 million consideration shares corresponding to EUR 38 million at an issue price of NOK 8.0 per share. Axactor realises the gain directly in equity, which on a pro forma basis per Q3 will result in an increase of shareholder's equity of EUR 55 million, corresponding to the book value of the minority interest aquired by Axactor. 3) Amount drawn depending on the size of bond issue

P&L statement

For the quarter end Year to date
EUR thousand 31 Dec 2020 31 Dec 2019 31 Dec 2020 31 Dec 2019
Interest income from purchased loan portfolios 41,758 37,239 163,093 134,531
Net gain/loss purchased loan portfolios -12,241 -412 -49,813 -319
Other operating revenue 29,003 36,865 91,724 148,926
Other income -24 1,137 24 2,021
Total income 58,496 74,830 205,029 285,159
Cost of REO's sold, incl impairment -5,976 -18,371 -52,932 -74,464
Personnel expenses -13,794 -15,237 -54,872 -57,708
Operating expenses -17,381 -17,397 -61,372 -60,847
Total operating expense -37,150 -51,004 -169,176 -193,019
EBITDA 21,346 23,826 35,853 92,140
Amortization and depreciation -2,981 -2,828 -10,838 -10,115
EBIT 18,365 20,998 25,015 82,025
Financial revenue 3,773 526 12,650 2,787
Financial expenses -21,469 -13,011 -66,039 -52,176
Net financial items -17,697 -12,485 -53,390 -49,389
Profit/(loss) before tax 668 8,513 -28,375 32,636
Tax (expense) 2,669 -1,979 -2,733 -11,667
Net profit/(loss) after tax 3,337 6,534 -31,108 20,969
Net profit/(loss) to Non-controlling interests 629 1,310 -15,871 4,643
Net profit/(loss) to equity holders 2,708 5,223 -15,237 16,326
Earnings per share: basic 0.015 0.034 -0.084 0.106
Earnings per share: diluted 0.014 0.029 -0.084 0.093

Balance sheet statement

EUR thousand 31 Dec 2020 31 Dec 2019
ASSETS
Intangible non-current assets
Intangible Assets 19,989 21,486
Goodwill 54,879 56,170
Deferred tax assets 7,753 9,742
Tangible non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 2,530 2,903
Right-of-use assets 4,826 5,846
Financial non-current assets
Purchased debt portfolios 1,124,699 1,041,919
Other non-current receivables 458 765
Other non-current investments 196 193
Total non-current assets 1,215,330 1,139,025
Current assets
Stock of Secured Assets 78,786 129,040
Accounts Receivable 7,124 13,135
Other current assets 14,723 14,960
Restricted cash 2,946 3,739
Cash and Cash Equivalents 47,779 71,657
Total current assets 151,358 232,531
TOTAL ASSETS 1,366,688 1,371,556
97,040
81,338
236,562
201,879
-13,142
2,153
-15,975
-4,721
74,113
96,977
378,598
377,626
579,282
466,378
7,388
17,591
2,804
3,481
1,433
1,415
590,906
488,864
6,147
5,902
356,903
463,555
12,002
6,570
2,282
2,549
19,849
26,491
397,184
505,066
988,090
993,930
1,366,688
1,371,556
EUR thousand 31 Dec 2020 31 Dec 2019
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity attributable to equity holders of the parent
Share Capital
Other paid-in equity
Retained Earnings
Reserves
Non-controlling interests
Total Equity
Non-current Liabilities
Interest bearing debt
Deferred tax liabilities
Lease liabilities
Other non-current liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Current portion of interest bearing debt
Taxes Payable
Lease liabilities
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Total Liabilities
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

Legal organization December 2020

*50% of the shares in Axactor Invest 1 S.à r.l. and Reolux Holding S.à r.l. is held by Geveran Trading Co. Limited (Cyprus). *Geveran Trading Co. Limited also holds shares of Axactor SE 42

Terms and abbreviations

APM / KPI definition

Cash EBITDA EBITDA adjusted for calculated cost of share option program, portfolio amortizations and revaluations, REO cost of
sales and REO impairments
Terms and abbreviations
CM1 Margin Total operating expenses (excluding SG&A, IT and corporate cost) as a percentage of total income 3PC Third-party collection
Debt-to-equity ratio Total interest bearing debt as a percentage of total equity ARM Accounts receivable management
Discount The rate of discount of original debt balance used to negotiate repayment of debt B2B Business to Business
EBITDA margin EBITDA as a percentage of total income B2C Business to Consumer
Economic growth GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth BoD Board of Directors
Efficient Legal system Governmental bailiff exchanging information electronically CGU Cash Generating Unit
Equity ratio Total equity as a percentage of total equity and liabilities CM1 Contribution Margin
ERC Estimated Remaining Collection express the expected future cash collection on own portfolios (NPLs) in nominal Dopex Direct Operating expenses
values, over the next 180 months. EBIT Operating profit, Earning before Interest and Tax
Gross margin Cash EBITDA as a percentage of gross revenue EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization
Gross revenue 3PC revenue, REO sale, cash collected on own portfolios and other revenue ECL Expected Credit Loss
House pricing House price index, development of real estate values EPS Earnings Per Share
Interest changes The interest charged to debtors on active claims EUR Euro
Interest level Lending rate in the market FTE Full Time Equivalent
NIBD Net Interest Bearing Debt means the aggregated amount of interest bearing debt, less aggregated amount of IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards
unrestricted cash and bank deposits, on a consolidated basis NCI Non-controlling interests
Opex ex SG&A, IT and corp.cost Total expenses excluding overhead functions NOK Norwegian Krone
Payment agreement Agreement with the debtors to repay their debt NPL Non-performing loan
Recovery rate Portion of the original debt repaid OB Outstanding Balance, the total amount Axactor can collect on claims under management, including outstanding
Return on Equity, excluding minorities, Net profit/(loss) to equity holders as a percentage of total equity excluding Non-controlling interests, annualized principal, interest and fees
annualized based on number of days in period PCI Purchased Credit Impaired
Return on Equity, including minorities, Net profit/(loss) after tax as a percentage of total equity, annualized based on number of days in period PPA Purchase Price Allocations
annualized REO Real Estate Owned
Settlements One payment of full debt SEK Swedish Krone
SG&A, IT and corporate cost Total operating expenses for overhead functions SG&A Selling, General & Administrative
Solution rate Accumulated paid principal amount for the period divided by accumulated collectable principal amount for the SPV Special Purpose Vehicle
period. Usually expressed on a monthly basis VIU Value in Use
Total estimated capital commitments for The total estimated capital commitments for the forward flow agreements are calculated based on the volume WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
forward flow agreements received over that last months and limited by the total capex commitment in the contract. WAEP Weighted Average Exercise Price
Total income Gross revenue minus portfolio amortizations and revaluations
Tracing activity Finding and updating debtor contact information

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