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Axactor SE — Investor Presentation 2021
Aug 17, 2021
3549_rns_2021-08-17_b5958210-ad9a-4c5e-aaa5-66e14d5601d2.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Q2 2021
17 August 2021
Agenda
Axactor is an established European debt collection company that has grown rapidly in targeted markets
- Established in Q4 2015 with headquarters in Oslo, Norway, and is one of Europe's top-ten debt collectors
- Main focus on collection and acquisition of unsecured non-performing loans ("NPL") and third-party collection ("3PC")
- Operations in six countries; Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden, with 1,062 FTEs
- Geveran owns ~44% of Oslo-listed Axactor SE
Strategic focus has shifted from growing scale during the start-up phase to growing return on equity
Start-up (2016-2020)
Grow scale
- Aggressive growth
- Market entries
- Establish IT and operations
Established player (2021-2024) Steady state (2025→)
Grow return on equity
- Grow size in existing markets
- Operational excellence
- Initiate dividend payments
- Take part in consolidation of the NPL industry
Grow presence
- Steady state
- Competitive cash return to shareholders
- Use superior operations to enter new markets and segments
Axactor is pursuing a niche strategy to disrupt the industry on cost-to-collect
NPL Cost-to-Collect for selected peers in 20201 (EURm)
- Axactor incepted to disrupt the industry on cost-to-collect
- Continued innovation and growing economies of scale to fuel further improvements
- Niche strategy supporting long-term competitiveness
- Countries: Organic growth in current countries
- Products: NPL & 3PC
- Debt origination: Bank and finance
- Debt type: Fresh, unsecured, business to consumer
5 1) Cost is calculated as total segment OPEX + allocation of unallocated OPEX and D&A. Segment OPEX is used as allocation key. Income is calculated as Total income adjusted for revaluations to show income excluding one-time effects based on changes in future expectations. Additional adjustments made on two peers to make numbers comparable, e.g. due to reporting numbers as a bank
Agenda
Key financial highlights Q2 2021
- Positive development in Q2 both QoQ and YoY on all numbers, except investments
- Q2 is seasonally a strong quarter
- Weak Q2 last year heavily affected by "first wave" of Covid-19
Axactor has obtained credit rating from Moody's and S&P to attract a larger investor base and reduce cost of funding
| Rating agency | Rating1 | Outlook | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | Positive | • Dual rating obtained from leading credit rating agencies |
|
| • Important step to reduce future funding cost |
|||
| • Access to a larger investor base |
|||
| • Access to less costly funding through ratings |
|||
| B | Stable | underlining solid financial position |
Cost reduction program on track
Cost reduction program, annualized1) (EUR million)
- Realized savings ahead of plan in Q2
- Outsourced car repossession service in Germany
- Home shoring back-office functions in Finland
- Various other improvement initiatives
- Cost reduction program expected to reach full P&L-effect in Q4
Axactor is currently acquiring portfolios at attractive rates - Expect current book gross IRR to improve over time
Gross IRR on NPL – current and on forward flows1 (% and EUR million)
- Gross IRR on signed forward flow contracts 47% higher than on the current book
- Expect prices to stabilize at 18% 22% gross IRR in our markets over time
- Estimated cost-to-collect is comparable to current level
In Q2 we are rated second best on ESG within consumer finance globally and signed UN Global Compact
• Ranked as second best of 151 companies within consumer finance and among top 5% globally1
• In Q2 Axactor signed up on the world's largest corporate sustainability initiative – UN Global Compact
Agenda
Gross revenue with a positive development on the back of a seasonally strong quarter with tax returns for debtors
Gross revenue (EUR million)
NPL segment with continued gross revenue growth and increasing CM1 margin
NPL Gross Revenue and CM1% (EUR million and %)
- All-time high gross revenue on NPL
- 27% YoY gross revenue growth
- Despite marginally declining book value
- Increased portfolio amortization rate to 40%
- Strong CM1 margin
14 Note: Please note that negative revaluations and negative amortization will appear as positive numbers in the graph
NPL active forecast aligned with current performance
Active forecast versus cash collected1
- Unsecured NPL collection performance in Q2 2021 of 99%
- Historic underperformance assumed lost – prudent approach
- Expect long-term performance to fluctuate around 100%
-20 -24 -24 -21 -20 -20 -22 -20 -21 -21 -21 -25 -22 -22 -25 -24 -22 -23 -23 -23 -23 -24 -25 -25
Active forecast Cash Collected
NPL investments at a historic low of EUR 12m
- Investments expected to exceed replacement CAPEX over the next 12 months
NPL investments in the quarter
- Low portfolio investment of EUR 12m for the quarter
- Expect investments of EUR ~200m in 2021, but highly dependent on volumes in Q4
- Replacement CAPEX of EUR 133m over the next 12 months
3PC development
-Total income and margins are improving. Expected to continue improving as society reopens
3PC Total income CM1 %
• High customer retention during the pandemic, but lower volumes – expect volume reversion as societies reopen
particularly for Spain and Italy
• Sales processes take longer time during the pandemic
• Negative impacts related to Covid-19 continue,
- Market is improving with increasing pipeline
- Margin driven down by EUR 0.7m restructuring cost in Q2
REO development (run-off segment)
- Good sales momentum on a declining asset base, but with negative margins
REO total income and CM1% (EUR million and %)
Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-21 Q2-19 Q2-20 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-21 Q3-20 Q4-20
- Revenue upheld on good level despite declining asset base
- Inventory down 42% since Q2 2020
- 361 assets sold during Q2 2021
- 2,039 assets in inventory at quarter-end
- Book value down to EUR 55m at quarter-end
- Remaining debt facilities of EUR 16m with Nomura repaid ahead of the plan
Summary: Growth on total income, margin expansion and second highest cash EBITDA ever
All-time high net profit after tax to equity holders
- Cost discipline materializing in lower depreciation for the quarter
- Positive development in net financial items
- Includes a positive one-time effect of EUR 1.5m in unrealized FX gain
- Includes a negative one-time effect of EUR 0.6m in write-down of amortized loan fees2
- Tax rate of 28% excluding REO
- Expect reduced tax rate going forward
RoE to shareholders back on pre-pandemic levels
- Aim to initiate dividend payments as return on equity gradually improves
Return on Equity excl. minorities per quarter (annualized)
- Expect RoE to improve over time as the underlying business improves and as societies slowly defeat the pandemic
- Expect short term fluctuations in RoE driven by seasonality and business performance
Agenda
Outlook
ROE expected to increase over time, but with short term fluctuations
- 3PC volume expected to return to pre-pandemic levels as societies re-open
- Cost reduction program targeting EUR 1.2m additional annualized savings by year-end
- Increasing market activity for both 3PC and NPL
- Axactor strictly prioritizes best NPL deals
- NPL investment guiding of EUR ~200m for 2021, but highly dependent on market activity in Q4
- Credit rating expected to reduce interest cost on potential future bonds
- Q3 is seasonally weaker than Q2 and the pandemic continue to affect our business environment
Supporting information
NPL portfolio
Q2 2021
NPL segment with continued gross revenue growth and increasing CM1 margin
NPL Gross Revenue and CM1% (EUR million and %)
- All-time high gross revenue on NPL
- 27% YoY gross revenue growth
- Despite marginally declining book value
- Increased portfolio amortization rate to 40%
- Strong CM1 margin
26 Note: Please note that negative revaluations and negative amortization will appear as positive numbers in the graph
Improving collection performance
Actual collection vs. active forecast1 (LTM, rolling)
| 100% | 101% | 108% | 112% | 106% | 101% | 98% | 92% | 93% | 97% | 96% | 98% | 98% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 |
| -18 | -18 | -18 | -19 | -19 | -19 | -19 | -20 | -20 | -20 | -20 | -21 | -21 |
- Q2 collection performance of 99%
- LTM collection performance of 98%
- Curves for 2021 aligned with current performance
- Long term average performance expected to fluctuate around 100%
Investment commitments are increasing
- Prioritizing high IRR portfolios, and expecting significant volumes to be offered in Q4 2021
Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)
- Increasing forward flow commitments
- Expect significant volumes to be offered in Q4 2021
- Commitments decrease towards the end of the period as contracts expire – expect to sign new volumes offsetting the decline
FIN DEU ITA NOR ESP SWE Committed Forward flow investments (est.)
ERC decreasing by 2% YoY due to low investment levels
Forward ERC profile by year (EUR million)
ERC split on estimated yield and amortization
- Axactor uses the IFRS industry standard, the effective interest method, to calculate amortization
ERC next four quarters (EUR million)
ERC next 15 years (EUR million)
Yield Amortization
3PC
Q2 2021
3PC Development
-Total income and margins are improving. Expected to continue improving as society reopens
3PC Total income CM1 %
- Negative impacts related to Covid-19 continue, particularly for Spain and Italy
- High customer retention during the pandemic, but lower volumes – expect volume reversion as societies reopen
- Sales processes take longer time during the pandemic
- Market is improving with increasing pipeline
- Margin driven down by EUR 0.7m restructuring cost in Q2
3PC volumes by geographic region
3PC total income split by geographic region
- Spain generate majority of 3PC income
- Nordics accounting for 19% of revenue
REO portfolio (run-off segment)
Q2 2021
REO development (run-off segment)
- Good sales momentum on a declining asset base, but with negative margins
REO total income and CM1% (EUR million and %)
Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-21 Q2-19 Q2-20 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-21 Q3-20 Q4-20
- Revenue upheld on good level despite declining asset base
- Inventory down 42% since Q2 2020
- 361 assets sold during Q2 2021
- 2,039 assets in inventory at quarter-end
- Book value down to EUR 55m at quarter-end
- Remaining debt facilities of EUR 16m with Nomura repaid ahead of the plan
REO portfolio moving towards the tail
- Total portfolio investments of EUR 287m*
- Last portfolio acquisition in Q3 2018
-
75% decline in book value since peak
-
A total of 8,663 assets acquired*
- 6,624 assets sold
(EUR million)
| Current book |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset class |
# assets |
% of total |
Book value |
% of total |
|
| Housing | 810 | 40 % |
29 6 |
54 % |
|
| Parking, annex etc. |
683 | 33 % |
2 5 |
4 % |
|
| Land | 237 | 12 % |
3 8 |
7 % |
|
| Commercial | 309 | 15 % |
20 3 |
37 % |
|
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 % |
-1 2 |
-2 % |
|
| Total | 2,039 | 100 % |
55.0 | 100 % |
| Originally acquired |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset class |
# assets |
% of total |
Book value |
% of total |
|
| Housing | 4 040 , |
47 % |
195 7 |
68 % |
|
| Parking, annex etc. |
3 395 , |
39 % |
15 8 |
6 % |
|
| Land | 357 | 4 % |
9 4 |
3 % |
|
| Commercial | 871 | 10 % |
66 4 |
23 % |
|
| Total | 8,663 | 100 % |
287.3 | 100 % |
- Housing represent 54% of current book value
- Average book value per remaining asset EUR 27k
- Average book value per sold asset of EUR 32k
- Average sale price per sold asset of EUR 38k
Appendix
P&L statement
| For the end quarter |
Year to |
date | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR thousand |
30 Jun 2021 |
30 Jun 2020 |
30 Jun 2021 |
30 Jun 2020 |
|
| Interest income from purchased loan portfolios |
41,779 | 40 511 , |
83 677 , |
79 838 , |
|
| Net gain/(loss) purchased loan portfolios |
-2,084 | -28 147 , |
-4 120 , |
-36 906 , |
|
| Other operating revenue |
26,161 | 16 219 , |
47 331 , |
41 222 , |
|
| Other income |
3 | 71 | 2 | 99 | |
| Total income |
65,859 | 28 654 , |
126 891 , |
84 253 , |
|
| Cost of REO's sold incl impairment , |
-14,144 | -32 033 , |
-24 530 , |
-42 207 , |
|
| Personnel expenses |
-14,252 | -12 923 , |
-33 120 , |
-27 824 , |
|
| Operating expenses Total |
-15,313 -43,709 |
-13 663 , -58 619 |
-29 348 , -86 997 |
-30 058 , -100 089 |
|
| operating expenses |
, | , | , | ||
| EBITDA | 22,150 | -29 965 , |
39 893 , |
-15 836 , |
|
| Amortization and depreciation |
-2,325 | -2 612 , |
-4 919 , |
-5 224 , |
|
| EBIT | 19,826 | -32 577 , |
34 975 , |
-21 060 , |
|
| Financial revenue |
1,565 | 201 | 1 010 |
9 934 |
|
| Financial expenses |
-13,391 | -14 558 , |
, -29 669 , |
, -30 213 , |
|
| Net financial items |
-11,826 | -14 357 , |
-28 659 , |
-20 279 , |
|
| Profit/(loss) before tax |
8,000 | -46 934 , |
6 316 , |
-41 339 , |
|
| Tax (expense) |
-3,619 | 2 538 , |
329 -5 , |
393 | |
| profit/(loss) Net after tax |
4,380 | -44 396 , |
987 | -40 946 , |
|
| Attributable to: |
|||||
| Non-controlling interests |
-2,771 | -17 722 , |
-4 730 , |
-19 438 , |
|
| of Equity holders the parent company |
7,152 | -26 674 , |
5 717 , |
-21 508 , |
|
| Earnings per share: basic |
0.024 | -0 144 |
0 020 |
-0 120 |
|
| Earnings per share: diluted |
0.023 | -0 144 |
0 019 |
-0 120 |
|
Balance sheet statement
| EUR thousand | 30 Jun 2021 |
30 Jun 2020 |
Full year 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | |||
| Intangible non-current assets | |||
| Intangible Assets | 19,064 | 21,184 | 19,989 |
| Goodwill | 55,527 | 54,087 | 54,879 |
| Deferred tax assets |
7,766 | 11,776 | 7,769 |
| Tangible non-current assets | |||
| Property, plant and equipment | 2,509 | 2,787 | 2,530 |
| Right-of-use assets |
3,704 | 5,765 | 4,826 |
| Financial non-current assets | |||
| Purchased debt portfolios | 1,104,079 | 1,107,257 | 1,124,699 |
| Other non-current receivables |
416 | 530 | 458 |
| Other non-current investments |
196 | 193 | 196 |
| Total non-current assets | 1,193,260 | 1,203,579 | 1,215,346 |
| Current assets |
|||
| Stock of Secured Assets |
55,012 | 88,625 | 78,786 |
| Accounts Receivable | 5,975 | 6,468 | 7,124 |
| Other current assets |
12,832 | 11,797 | 11,645 |
| Restricted cash | 2,909 | 2,891 | 2,946 |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents |
44,429 | 31,398 | 47,779 |
| Total current assets | 121,157 | 141,179 | 148,281 |
| TOTAL ASSETS |
1,314,417 | 1,344,758 | 1,363,627 |
| EUR thousand EQUITY AND LIABILITIES |
30 Jun 2021 |
30 Jun 2020 |
Full year 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity attributable to equity holders of the parent |
|||
| Share Capital |
158,150 | 97,040 | 97,040 |
| Other paid-in equity |
269,907 | 236,454 | 236,562 |
| Retained Earnings | -1,956 | -19,354 | -16,036 |
| Reserves | -9,570 | -24,684 | -15,999 |
| Non-controlling interests | 12,365 | 73,595 | 74,113 |
| Total Equity | 428,896 | 363,052 | 375,680 |
| Non-current Liabilities | |||
| Interest bearing debt | 695,658 | 802,240 | 579,282 |
| Deferred tax liabilities |
6,395 | 15,409 | 6,436 |
| Lease liabilities | 2,078 | 3,395 | 2,804 |
| Other non-current liabilities |
1,567 | 1,334 | 1,433 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 705,698 | 822,378 | 589,955 |
| Current Liabilities |
|||
| Accounts Payable |
6,145 | 3,584 | 6,147 |
| Current portion of interest bearing debt |
135,737 | 116,225 | 356,903 |
| Taxes Payable | 16,944 | 9,535 | 12,002 |
| Lease liabilities | 1,866 | 2,613 | 2,282 |
| Other current liabilities |
19,132 | 27,371 | 20,657 |
| Total current liabilities | 179,824 | 159,328 | 397,992 |
| Total Liabilities | 885,522 | 981,706 | 987,947 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES |
1,314,417 | 1,344,758 | 1,363,627 |
Legal organization June 2021
*50% of the shares in Reolux Holding S.à r.l. is held by Geveran Trading Co. Limited (Cyprus).
*Geveran Trading Co. Limited also holds shares of Axactor SE 41
Terms and abbreviations
APM / KPI definition
| EBITDA adjusted for change in forward flow derivatives, calculated cost of share option program, portfolio | Terms and abbreviations | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash EBITDA | amortizations and revaluations, REO cost of sales and REO impairments | ||
| CM1 Margin | Total operating expenses (excluding SG&A, IT and corporate cost) as a percentage of total income | 3PC | Third-party collection |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | Total interest bearing debt as a percentage of total equity | APM | Alternative Performance Measures |
| Discount | The rate of discount of original debt balance used to negotiate repayment of debt | ARM | Accounts Receivable Management |
| EBITDA margin | EBITDA as a percentage of total income | B2B | Business to Business |
| Economic growth | GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth | B2C | Business to Consumer |
| Efficient Legal system | Governmental bailiff exchanging information electronically | BoD | Board of Directors |
| Equity ratio | Total equity as a percentage of total equity and liabilities | CGU | Cash Generating Unit |
| Estimated Remaining Collection express the expected future cash collection on own portfolios (NPLs) in nominal | CM1 | Contribution Margin | |
| ERC | values, over the next 180 months. | Dopex | Direct Operating expenses |
| The internal rate of return that makes the net present value of ERC equal to NPL book value. Calculated using | EBIT | Operating profit, Earning before Interest and Tax | |
| Gross IRR | monthly cash flows over a 180-month period | EBITDA | Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization |
| Gross margin | Cash EBITDA as a percentage of gross revenue | ECL | Expected Credit Loss |
| 3PC revenue, REO sale, cash collected on own portfolios and other revenue, excluding change in forward flow | EPS | Earnings Per Share | |
| Gross revenue | derivatives | EUR | Euro |
| House pricing | House price index, development of real estate values | FTE | Full Time Equivalent |
| Interest changes | The interest charged to debtors on active claims | IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standards |
| Interest level | Lending rate in the market | NCI | Non-controlling interests |
| Net Interest Bearing Debt means the aggregated amount of interest bearing debt, less aggregated amount of | NOK | Norwegian Krone | |
| NIBD | unrestricted cash and bank deposits, on a consolidated basis | NPL | Non-performing loan |
| Opex ex SG&A, IT and corp.cost | Total expenses excluding overhead functions | OB | Outstanding Balance, the total amount Axactor can collect on claims under management, including outstanding |
| Payment agreement | Agreement with the debtors to repay their debt | principal, interest and fees | |
| Recovery rate | Portion of the original debt repaid | PCI | Purchased Credit Impaired |
| Return on Equity, excluding minorities, | Net profit/(loss) to equity holders as a percentage of total average equity in period excluding Non-controlling | PPA | Purchase Price Allocations |
| annualized | interests, annualized based on number of days in period | REO | Real Estate Owned |
| Return on Equity, including minorities, | Net profit/(loss) after tax as a percentage of total average equity in period, annualized based on number of days in | SEK | Swedish Krone |
| annualized | period | SG&A | Selling, General & Administrative |
| Settlements | One payment of full debt | SPV | Special Purpose Vehicle |
| SG&A, IT and corporate cost | Total operating expenses for overhead functions | VIU | Value in Use |
| Accumulated paid principal amount for the period divided by accumulated collectable principal amount for the | WACC | Weighted Average Cost of Capital | |
| Solution rate | period. Usually expressed on a monthly basis | WAEP | Weighted Average Exercise Price |
| Total estimated capital commitments for | The total estimated capital commitments for the forward flow agreements are calculated based on the volume | ||
| forward flow agreements | received over the last months and limited by the total capex commitment in the contract. | ||
| Total income | Gross revenue minus portfolio amortizations and revaluations | ||
| Tracing activity | Finding and updating debtor contact information |