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Axactor SE

Investor Presentation Feb 12, 2020

3549_rns_2020-02-12_cc0ed64c-9513-4c54-aa76-613f0995de3b.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Q4 & FY 2019

12 February, 2020

Secured new funding to deliver on profitable growth strategy

Axactor's scalable model proven with doubling of the 2019 EBITDA and 430% YoY growth in Earnings Before Tax

Attractive NPL market development with price levels down and IRRs up 2

Equity issue of EUR 51 million in Q1'20 to deliver on profitable growth strategy in a market with opportunities at hand 3

1

Growth strategy to drive scale benefits, profits and ROE

Group revenue 12 months rolling (EUR million)

  • People, systems and funding enablers of the 2015-2019 growth
  • 2020: People and systems in place – secured additional funding to continue growth

Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19

Industry challenger rising to Europe's top 10 in 4 years

Built a next-generation debt management company

• Axactor is an industry challenger providing innovative, cost efficient and IT powered debt management solutions

HQ

  • Debt purchase, debt collection and accounts receivables management are the main business activities
  • Operations in six sound markets on One Axactor platform, enabled by leading people, systems and funding
  • Established in 2015, ~1150 employees, listed on Oslo Stock Exchange

Q4 2019 - Key highlights

  • Strong YoY revenue growth, driven by the NPL and 3PC segments
  • EBITDA up on higher margins underlining the high operational leverage of Axactor's model
  • Earnings before tax of EUR 8.5 million
  • Capex invested in NPL portfolios of EUR 95 million
  • Increased RCF funds by EUR 150 million during the quarter, and a private placement of EUR 51 million in February

2019 - Key highlights

  • Substantial revenue growth and doubling of EBITDA driven by scalability and efficiency
  • EBITDA margin up 10 percentage points
  • Earnings before tax of EUR 32.6 million, compared to EUR 6.2 million last year: 430% YoY growth
  • NPL portfolios book value up by 43%, and ERC above 2 billion
  • Capex of EUR 399 million invested in portfolios for the full-year

-,5 ,5 ,15 ,25 ,35 ,45 ,55 ,65 ,75 ,85 ,95 ,105 ,115 ,125 ,135 ,145 ,155 ,165 ,175 ,185 ,195 ,205 ,215 ,225 ,235 ,245 ,255 ,265 ,275 ,285 ,295 ,305

Growth and margin improvement

Gross revenue development (EUR million)

EBITDA and EBITDA-margin (EUR million and %) 6 11 10 20 22 26 20 24 17% 20% 21% 29% 30% 36% 31% 32% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Cash EBITDA (EUR million)

Growth in all three business areas

Gross revenue development (EUR million)

Strong YoY revenue growth FY 2019:

  • Total 54%
  • NPL +86%
  • 3PC +11%
  • REO +31%

Continued YoY growth Q4 2019:

  • Total 32%
  • NPL +54%
  • 3PC +6%
  • REO +5%

NPL portfolio

Q4 2019

QoQ NPL growth – capex mainly deployed in forward flow

NPL gross revenue development (EUR million)

Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)

ESP NOR DEU SWE ITA FIN

Collection performance below expected long-term average

Actual collection vs. active forecast* (LTM, rolling)

Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419

  • Negative effect from one-offs in the quarter:
    • Postal strike in Finland during seasonally strong December
    • Delays in collection from the Swedish bailiff due to transition to new IT system
      • Expect backlog to be gradually reduced through H1 2020
  • Long term average performance expected to fluctuate around 100%
    • Portfolios with large positive or negative deviations are continuously on review for revaluation

Unsecured NPL claims accounts for vast majority of total

  • Focus on unsecured consumer loans
  • Opportunistic approach to secured NPL
  • Currently less than 6% of total NPL book value consist of secured NPL claims
  • Average claim size in secured NPL book is approximately EUR 161k
  • Combined ERC for five largest secured claims less than EUR 10m

Forward flow outlook

Estimated FF investments from signed contracts (EUR million)

Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

Actual FF investments Estimated FF investments

  • Total estimated forward flow volume of EUR 190m in 2020 (at reporting date)
  • Selective approach given upwards trend in IRRs
    • Renegotiating and discontinuing existing contracts
  • Focusing on combined forward flow and 3PC contracts
    • Expanded agreement with Nordic consumer bank client, including 3PC servicing of part of the claims prior to our purchase
    • In process with several potential clients with similar structure

NPL: Increasing and balanced portfolio

Forward ERC profile by year (EUR million)

300

2 500

(EUR million)

ERC development

Increased Nordic exposure to benefit from attractive market opportunity

NPL ERC (EUR million, % of total)

  • EUR ~400m invested in 2019 in NPL portfolios
    • EUR 234m invested in Nordic forward flows from major consumer banks during 2019

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3PC

Q4 2019

Growing asset-light 3PC business

Gross revenue 3PC (EUR million)

18

  • +11% YoY growth in 2019
  • Focus on combined forward flow and 3PC deals
    • Product synergies in business origination, collection execution and data generation
    • Expecting more forward flow agreements with initial 3PC periods
    • A combined 3PC and NPL deal signed in Norway in January
  • Changing market environment
    • The finance sector accounts for three quarters of the 3PC revenue
    • More banks are expected to partner with 3PC services

Building for the future of debt management

3PC revenue split by geographic region

  • Increasing the Nordic 3PC business
    • Synergies to be extracted from cross-border deals
    • Seeking combined 3PC and forward flow deals to improve collection performance and profitability
  • Specialized value chain proposition
    • Focus on financial institutions, both in NPL and 3PC
    • ARM/3PC offerings with recurring revenue
    • Highly modern, flexible and scalable platform

REO portfolio

Q4 2019

Maintained high REO revenue on declining asset base

REO gross revenue development (EUR million)

REO sales No. of assets in inventory

  • Revenue up 5% compared to Q4'18 on lower asset base
    • Large bulk sale accounting for EUR 2.3 million (106 assets)
  • 595 units sold in Q4, 12% up from Q3
    • 7 assets repossessed from secured NPL during the quarter
  • Average unit price of EUR 36k
  • Number of REO assets steadily declining
    • Capital released from REO will be invested into high performing NPL business
    • Allowed for increased discounts to support continued high sales volumes

Book value of EUR 129m at year-end 2019

  • ERC decreased by 22% in the quarter
    • ERC adjusted to reflect expected discount level going forward
      • EUR 5m discount vs ERC in Q4
      • EUR 16m reduction of future ERC
  • REO represents 7% of Group ERC and declining
  • Target to realize half of remaining asset base over the next 12 months
  • Axactor has approximately 40% of the total exposure for REO
    • Minority shareholders in both Reolux and its subsidiaries

REO: ERC profile

(EUR million)

Financials

Q4 2019

Contribution per segment

Contribution per segment*

(EUR million) - Excluding unallocated overhead cost

NPL portfolios 3PC REO portfolios Other

Total:

• Contribution margin of 48% in Q4, compared to 45% last year

NPL:

  • Contribution margin of 75% (80%)
  • Portfolio amortization and revaluation of EUR 24.0m (6.6), EUR 23.1m in Q3

3PC:

• 40% contribution margin (36%)

REO:

  • 5% YoY growth on significantly lower asset base
  • Low contribution margin at 3% (-4%), 7% in Q3, reflects moderately higher discounts

'Other' item of EUR 1.1m, mainly reflects disposal of some small non-core portfolios and a positive legal settlement

23 *Contribution before allocation of local SG&A and IT cost, management fee, central administration costs, other gains and losses or finance costs Segment contribution margin = Segment contribution/Segment net revenue Total segment contribution less unallocated cost = EBITDA

Net finance, tax and net profits

Condensed Income statement (EUR thousand)

For
the
quarter end
YTD
EUR
thousand
Dec
31
2019
Dec
31
2018
Dec
31
2019
Dec
31
2018
EBIT 20,998 17,885 82,025 40,298
Financial
revenue
526 58 2,787 453
Financial
expenses
-13,011 -12,504 -52,176 -34,590
Net
financial
items
-12,485 -12,447 -49,389 -34,138
Profit/(loss)
before
tax
8,513 5,438 32,636 6,160
Tax
(expense)
-1,979 -2,624 -11,667 -3,770
Net
profit/(loss)
after
tax
6,534 2,814 20,969 2,390
profit/(loss)
Net
to Non-controlling
interests
1,310 -1,578 4,643 -2,103
Net
profit/(loss)
to equity
holders
5,223 4,392 16,326 4,492
Earnings
per share:
basic
0.034 0.028 0.106 0.029
Earnings
per share:
diluted
0.029 0.025 0.093 0.026
  • Total net financial cost of EUR 12.5m
    • Interest cost of EUR 13.9
    • Average blended interest costs of approx. 5%
    • Reversed note interest distribution to minorities of EUR 2.1m

• Tax expense of EUR 2.0m

• Overall tax rate still high, expected to trend towards ~25% over time

• Net profit of EUR 6.5m

  • EUR 5.2m to equity shareholders
  • EUR 1.3m to non-controlling minorities

Minority shareholders in both NPL and REOs - Axactor REO exposure down to ~3% of total ERC

Total ERC exposure (EUR million)

  • Axactor has approximately 40% of the total exposure for REO
    • Minority shareholders in both Reolux and its subsidiaries
    • Axactor's share of REO amounts to 3% of its total ERC
  • Axactor shareholders has approximately 84% of the total exposure for NPL
    • Minority shareholder in Axactor Invest

Axactor's growth yields scale benefits and higher profits

Local SG&A, IT & corporate expenses % of net revenue vs EBITDA (LTM, EUR million)

EBITDA Local SG&A, IT and corporate cost % Net revenue

Axactor's growing profitability to improve ROE over time

1.7 % 5.8 % 2018 2019 • IRR increased during the year • EBITDA margin up 10 percentage points YoY • Strong growth in capital light 3PC collection • Current level of ~5% • Reduced efficient tax rate to 36% • Improved IRR levels to be blended in over time • Stabilizing while awating further scale effect • Combining NPL and 3PC deals, reducing REO exposure • Refinancing and continiued improvement of capital structure • Expected to further decline towards ~25% over time Drivers 2019 2020 • NPL portfolio prices • Economies of scale • Business mix • Funding cost • Tax rate Return on Equity* (%)

Funding has supported a fast-growing asset base

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

  • Portfolios represent the vast majority of the asset base
  • Debt has increased following portfolio acquisitions
  • Expect equity ratio at approximately 30% over time
  • Equity injection in Q1 2020 of EUR ~50m

0

500

1000

1500

Current funding structure

  • Net interest bearing debt of EUR 858 million per YE'19
  • Expanded RCF with two new accordion options in October, each for EUR 75m: One of the options executed in October, the other unused per YE '19
  • Increased funding by a total EUR 310m in 2019:
    • Released EUR 225m in accordion options with Nordic banks: EUR 100m in February + EUR 50m in June + EUR 75m in October
    • Executed bond tap option of EUR 50m bond tap option in March
    • EUR 15m equity injection and EUR 20m new mezzanine loan from Geveran to Axactor Invest 1 in April
  • EUR ~50m equity issue in February 2020

Outlook & Summary

Q4 2019

Attractive market opportunity

Large volumes of NPL coming to market

NPL price levels down – IRRs up

3PC & ARM growth – new products emerging

Industry consolidation

Summary

  • YoY growth in all three business areas
  • Growth drives scale benefits, profits and ROE
  • Earnings before tax growth of 430%
  • People, systems and funding enablers of growth
  • Secured new equity funding of EUR 51 million to deliver on profitable growth strategy
  • Attractive market opportunities Axactor targeting portfolio capex of EUR 350-400 million for 2020

Appendix

P&L statement

For
the
end
quarter
YTD
EUR
thousand
31
Dec
2019
31
Dec
2018
31
Dec
2019
31
Dec
2018
Interest
income
from
purchased
loan
portfolios
37,239 22
289
,
134
531
,
74
536
,
Net
gain/loss
purchased
loan
portfolios
-412 10
751
,
-319 10
599
,
Other
operating
revenue
36,865 34
994
,
148
926
,
121
774
,
Other
revenue
1,137 0 2
021
,
0
Total
Revenue
74,830 68
034
,
285
159
,
206
909
,
Cost
of
REO's
sold
-18,371 -18
364
,
-74
464
,
-56
438
,
Personnel
expenses operations
-10,041 -8
815
,
-38
203
,
-32
584
,
Personnel
expenses other
-5,196 211
-5
,
-19
506
,
-19
548
,
Operating
expenses
-17,397 -16
073
,
-60
847
,
-52
033
,
Total
operating
expense
-51,004 -48
463
,
-193
019
,
-160
602
,
EBITDA 23,826 19
571
,
92
140
,
46
306
,
Amortisation
and
depreciation
-2,828 -1
686
,
-10
115
,
-6
009
,
EBIT 20,998 17
885
,
82
025
,
40
298
,
Financial
revenue
526 58 2
787
,
453
Financial
expenses
-13,011 -12
504
,
-52
176
,
-34
590
,
Net
financial
items
-12,485 -12
447
,
-49
389
,
-34
138
,
Profit/(loss)
before
tax
8,513 438
5
,
32
636
,
6
160
,
Tax
(expense)
-1,979 -2
624
,
-11
667
,
-3
770
,
Net
profit/(loss)
after
tax
6,534 2
814
,
20
969
,
2
390
,
profit/(loss)
Net
Non-controlling
interests
to
1,310 -1
578
,
4
643
,
-2
103
,
Net
profit/(loss)
equity
holders
to
5,223 4
392
,
16
326
,
4
492
,
Earnings
per share:
basic
0.034 0
028
0
106
0
029
Earnings
per share:
diluted
0.029 0
025
0
093
0
026

Balance sheet statement

EUR
thousand
ASSETS
31
Dec
2019
31
Dec
2018
Intangible
non-current
assets
Intangible
Assets
21
487
19
170
Goodwill 56
170
55
577
Deferred
tax
assets
9
742
7
564
Tangible
non-current
assets
Property
, plant
and
equipment
2
903
2
683
Right-of-use
assets
846
5
0
Financial
non-current
assets
Purchased
debt
portfolios
1
041
919
728
820
Other
receivables
non-current
765 293
Other
investments
non-current
193 778
Total
non-current
assets
1
139
025
814
885
Current
assets
Stock
Secured
of
Assets
129
040
200
009
Accounts
Receivable
13
135
9
459
Other
current
assets
14
960
12
774
Restricted
cash
3
739
3
184
Cash
Cash
and
Equivalents
71
657
67
593
Total
current
assets
232
531
293
018
TOTAL
ASSETS
1
371
556
1
107
903
EUR
thousand
EQUITY
LIABILITIES
AND
Dec
31
2019
Dec
31
2018
Equity
attributable
equity
holders
of
the
to
parent
Share
Capital
81,338 81,115
Other
paid-in
equity
201,879 200,298
Retained
Earnings
2,153 -14,172
Reserves -4,721 -2,817
Non-controlling
interests
96,977 63,746
Total
Equity
377,626 328,170
Non-current
Liabilities
Interest
bearing
debt
466,378 567,829
Deferred
liabilities
tax
17,591 11,124
Lease
liabilities
3,481 0
Other
liabilities
non-current
1,415 1,180
Total
liabilities
non-current
488,864 580,132
Current
Liabilities
Accounts
Payable
5,902 4,522
Current
portion
of
interest
bearing
debt
463,555 169,296
Taxes
Payable
6,570 1,610
Lease
liabilities
2,549 0
Other
liabilities
current
26,491 24,172
Total
liabilities
current
505,066 199,600
Total
Liabilities
993,930 779,732
TOTAL
EQUITY
AND
LIABILITIES
1,371,556 1,107,903

Legal organization February 2020

*50% of the shares in Axactor Invest 1 S.à r.l. and Reolux Holding S.à r.l. is held by Geveran Trading Co. Limited (Cyprus). *Geveran Trading Co. Limited also holds shares of Axactor SE

axactor.com

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