AI assistant
Axactor SE — Investor Presentation 2020
Aug 14, 2020
3549_rns_2020-08-14_d8378185-f2b9-4031-a295-65eef7c20fc1.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Company presentation and effects of Covid-19
Nordea Small Cap Days Johnny Tsolis, CEO
Axactor in brief
- Established in Q4 2015 with headquarter in Oslo, Norway
- Main focus on collection and acquisition of non-performing loans ("NPL") from financial institutions
- Management team with strong track record from purchased debt and debt collection industry
- Operations in six European countries; Spain, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden and Finland with 1,135 FTEs
- Portfolio acquisitions north of EUR 600m for 2019 and 2020 combined
- Geveran owns ca 32% of Oslo-listed Axactor SE
3
| Market capitalisation |
Equity | NIBD |
|---|---|---|
| ~EUR 130m | EUR 363m | EUR 887m |
Our core business areas
Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Third-party collection (3PC)
- Buy defaulted debt at discount to face value
- Price variations between markets, age and type of debt
- Example: Credit card, personal loans
- Use own highly trained personnel and systems to collect over a 15-year period
- Money multiple typically between 1.7-2.5x
| Estimated remaining collection |
EUR 2 153m |
|---|---|
| Book value | EUR 1 107m |
| Buy defaulted debt at discount to face value • Price variations between markets, age and type of debt Example: Credit card, personal loans Use own highly trained personnel and systems to collect over a 15-year period Money multiple typically between 1.7-2.5x |
• Traditional debt collection on behalf of external customers • Typically a fixed fee or a commission to Axactor on the collected amount |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue, LTM | EUR 110m | ||||
| Estimated remaining collection |
EUR 2 153m | Contribution margin (CM1), LTM |
EUR 17m | ||
| Book value | EUR 1 107m | CM1 margin, LTM | 34% |
Axactor positioned in the value chain from debtor default
We are one of the fastest growing companies at Oslo Stock Exchange
- Focus on financial institutions, both in NPL and 3PC
- Targeting combined 3PC and forward flow deals
- Product synergies in business origination, collection execution and data generation
- REO is not part of the strategy going forward
- Last REO portfolio acquisition in Q3 2018
We have been able to establish a significant revenue stream in all our markets
- Targeting sound markets for owning and collecting on non-performing loans
- Increased the Nordic exposure through 2019 and 2020
- Synergies to be extracted from cross-border deals
Where are we on our journey? - Just about to enter phase II with focus on ROE-growth
segments ▪ M&A
Covid-19 effect on Axactor ROE drivers
| Drivers | Q2 2020 | Covid-19 impact | Outlook | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | NPL portfolio prices | • Portfolios acquired at attractive IRRs in the Nordic market |
Positive | • Improved IRR levels to be blended in over time |
| • | Economies of scale | • EBITDA margin significantly affected by write downs in the quarter |
Neutral | • Volume growth through 2020 and into 2021, with strong cost discipline |
| • | Tax rate | • Effective tax rate not relevant for Q2 2020 |
Neutral | • Expect ~25% over time |
| • | Funding cost | • Current level of ~5% |
Negative (1-year delay) |
• Refinancing and continued improvement of capital structure |
| • | Business mix | • Significant increase in combined 3PC and NPL deals |
Positive (3PC will increase) |
• Leveraging on 3PC and NPL synergies |
Lockdowns and impairments significantly affected first half 2020 financials
Total revenue development (EUR million)
EBITDA and EBITDA-margin (EUR million and %)
Cash EBITDA (EUR million)
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Q2 2020 NPL revaluation and REO impairment accrual
11 *Excluding NPL revaluation in Q2 2020 **Adjusted for NPL revaluation and REO impairment accrual in Q2 2020
April and May significantly impacted by Covid-19, strong pick-up in June expected to continue
Gross revenue (EUR million)
Prudent revaluation and impairment of EUR 53m following Covid-19
REO book value (EUR million)
- Net negative revaluation of EUR 27m of NPL portfolio
- Based on estimated short-term financial impact of Covid-19
- Estimated impairment of EUR 26m on REO assets
- Based on updated commercial analysis taking a prudent view of current trends in the market
Axactor has aligned costs with market activity throughout the crisis
Actions to align costs to activity level
Site consolidation to increase efficiency
EUR ~25m estimated annual savings for 2020
Further cost saving initiatives depends on activity level
• Temporary workforce reductions of ~400 employees during Q2
• Executive team salary reductions in Q2 extended through Q3
• Temporary price reductions from IT vendors
- Norwegian operation reduced from five to two sites
- Sweden closing one of two sites
- Further consolidation under consideration
- EUR ~13m expected in H2 2020
- EUR 1.2m restructuring costs in Q2 2020
- Legal costs driven by activity in notary offices and bailiffs
- Scalable setup to take advantage of further reopening of the economies
- Potential new lockdown may significantly impact return to normality
Covid-19 long term effects for the collection industry
1
Portfolio prices – a supply overhang of NPLs cause pressure on portfolio prices
2
Increased 3PC volumes – capital constraints and lower prices increase focus on 3PC servicing
3
Industry consolidation – expected to increase medium to long term
4
Regulatory changes – challenges and opportunities
Why invest in the debt collection industry?
The prices on NPL portfolios has come down significantly since 2017 1
The NPL market will continue to grow over the next years 2
- From 10% IRR or below in 2017/early 2018 to 12-14% IRR in all Axactor markets
- Significant imbalance in demand and supply of unsecured NPLs (will also increase 3PC volumes)
- Regulatory environment continues to put pressure on financial institutions to offload their balance sheets
- Banks are to an even larger extent not regarding collection as core business
- 3 Capital still available for the industry Allektum successfully raised SEK 900m this week (August 2020)
- Intrum successfully raised EUR 600m in July
- 4 Underpriced industry Market overreaction to fear of Covid-19 effects
- Repricing of the industry just started
Axactor with six key competitive advantages - The combination makes Axactor unique
Axactor competitive advantages…
| 1 | Strong niche focus |
▪ Strong focus on becoming best in Europe on unsecured consumer finance ▪ Not trying to be best on "everything" |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Most attractive markets | ▪ All six markets carefully chosen with regards to size, risk profile and legal environment |
| 3 | Access to the best talents | ▪ Highly attractive to join a company with a flat organizational structure, entrepreneurial spirit and a culture for fast decision processes |
| 4 | Proven track record | ▪ Established as one of the top 10 leading debt collection companies in Europe in less than five years |
| 5 | Superior collection platform | ▪ Practically no legacy, company created from "clean sheets" ▪ World class IT-infrastructure and operational setup standardized across all countries |
| 6 | Supportive cornerstone investor | ▪ Geveran has a strong industry track record ▪ Contributes with both competence and capital |