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Acea Investor Presentation 2016

Nov 28, 2016

4350_rns_2016-11-28_6954717e-e9b4-4bcb-8122-7474e3b63df2.pdf

Investor Presentation

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2015 Results 2016-2020 Business Plan

November 2016

Agenda

2016-2020 Business Plan highlights

Acea today

WATER

Leading operator in Italy ~ 42% of Group EBITDA

Lazio, Tuscany, Umbria and Campania

  • Water sold: 527 million m3
  • Customers: nearly 9 million
  • Engineering, procurement, construction and management of integrated water services, laboratory analysis
  • Water Management services in Latin American countries

One of the main Italian energy retailers

~ 15% of Group EBITDA

  • Electricity sold: over 9.4TWh
  • Customers: ~ 1.4 million
  • 7 hydroelectric power plants (122 MW)
  • 3 thermo/cogen plants (243 MW).

Number 6 Italian operator ~ 8% of Group EBITDA Umbria, Lazio and Tuscany Waste treated: ~ 770,000 Tons

Electricity produced (WTE): 265 GWh

One of the leading operators in Italy

  • ~ 35% of Group EBITDA
  • Electricity distributed: ~ 11 TWh in the city of Rome
  • Public lighting and floodlighting managed: over 217,000 lighting points
  • Energy efficiency projects.

2015 data

Well-positioned to capture opportunities in all business areas

Source: CONSOB (November 2016) and Companies' data

Acea's Ownership Structure EBITDA from Regulated activities

Strategic Pillars

ACEA Group

Maintaining our strategic pillars…..

Balanced risk profile

  • 74% of EBITDA from regulated businesses at the end of the Plan
  • 80% of investment in regulated businesses

Efficiencies and innovation

  • ~94 €m of efficiencies relates to Acea 2.0 (billing, WFM, insourcing)
  • Corporate rationalisation
  • Operational efficiency

Organic growth

  • Focus on regulated businesses
  • New regulatory framework for electricity distribution and water
  • Upgrade/development of WTE and composting plants

Financial strength

  • Improving financial ratios: Net Debt/Ebitda 2020 2.5x
  • Working capital optimization

…. increasing shareholder returns: Dividend Per Share CAGR: 3%-6%

Further opportunities not included in the Plan targets

  • Acquisitions of water companies in existing areas of operation
  • Consolidation in core areas
  • Acquisitions in Latin America

Acea 2.0 – digital and technological transformation

New corporate culture open to change

Acea is revolutionising the way it goes about its business, making sizeable investments in digital technologies

CUSTOMERS

~831 PLANTS

~140,000 KM of NETWORKS

ACEA 2.0 Programme: an ambitious strategic initiative, and a crucial stage in the Group's growth process.

Faced with the arduous task of ensuring the integrity, univocity and quality of data handled, ACEA has chosen SAP solutions (world leader in the sphere of management systems for Utilities).

~7,000 EMPLOYEES

The drivers of technological innovation

Real time Use in mobility

NEW OPERATING MODEL

Total uniformity

RE-ENGINEERING OF PROCESSES

Acea 2.0

ACEA Group

2016-2020 Business Plan Acea Group

Key highlights

ACEA Group

CONSOLIDATED TRACK RECORD OF EXCEEDING PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED TARGETS

2015 2020
Plan
EBITDA (€m) 732 890 EBITDA CAGR 2015-2020: +4.0%
NET PROFIT before
non-controlling
interests
(€m)
182 276
NET DEBT (€m) 2,010 2,252 2020 Pre-tax ROIC: ~12%
NET DEBT/EBITDA 2.7x 2.5x DPS CAGR 2015-2020: 3%-6%
INVESTED CAPITAL (€m) 3,606 4,244 PAYOUT RATIO: 50%-60%

All Acea employees are committed to the successful execution of the Group's Strategic Plan

2016-2020 Business Plan

EBITDA: growth by business area

EBITDA trend €m

Holding

  • Roll-in Acea 2.0
  • Insourcing of activities
  • Redundancy plan
  • Corporate rationalisation
  • Optimisation of real estate

Environment

  • Completion of San Vittore plant
  • Revamping of WTE in Lazio region
  • Growth in composting market

Energy

  • Introduction of Acea 2.0
  • Customers: consolidation of customer base in 2017 and growth in 2020

Water

  • Revised WACC
  • Bonus for quality
  • Acea 2.0-WFM

Grids

  • Revised WACC
  • Introducton of Acea 2.0- WFM
  • Renewal of Public Lighting contract
  • Growth in Public Lighting (Campania)

2016-2020 Business Plan Acceleration of efficiencies identified

Total efficiencies over the period of the Plan: €94m from 2020: ~ €40m on a recurring basis

ACEA Group

Capex optimization

Debt Structure

Long-term debt life and a solid liquidity position

Thanks to the above transactions :

Extension of the average term to maturity of the debt: 7.8 years

Reduction of the average cost of the debt: 2.97%

ACEA Group

2016-2020 Business Plan Environment

2016-2020 Business Plan Strategies, opportunities and risks

  • Number 3 operator in Italy in 2020
  • Completion of previously approved initiatives:
  • Revamping line 1 of San Vittore WTE plant in Lazio
  • Construction of new composting plant with anaerobic digestion
  • Expansion of Orvieto landfill
  • Development of composting and sludge conditioning plants
  • Consolidation in regions where present, with potential for synergies with other areas of business
('000 tons) 2015 2020
WTE 354 553
Mechanical
treatment
- 355
Landfill 94 133
Composting/anaerobic
digestion
7 310
Chemical
conditioning
of sludge
for use in agriculture
29 196
Sludge
management
224 241
Liquid waste - 295
Total 708* 2,083

Opportunities Risks

Regulatory:

  • Completion of management of waste cycle in Lazio region Competitors:
  • Number 6 operator in Italy in Environment sector by volume of waste treated, with 2.4% share of Italian market
  • Leading Italian operator of composting plants

Growth:

  • Insourcing of sludge treatment at Group level
  • Average IRR for acquisitions / new constructions approx. 14%

Plants:

Delays in investment in construction or revamping of plants

Regulatory:

Changes to regulatory framework and authorisation process

Environmental:

  • Environmental risks
  • Local relations (administrative challenges, protest groups)

Targets and Results

2016-2020 Business Plan Energy

2016-2020 Business Plan Strategies, opportunities and risks

Retail

  • Moderate growth of customer base, with focus on existing areas of operation
  • Improved service quality
  • Acea 2.0: new billing and CRM system
  • Efficiency of processes and overheads, including via insourcing Production
  • Plants modernisation: Castel Madama and Mandela
  • Devolopment of energy efficiency initiatives

Opportunities

Risks

Regulatory:

Complete revision of RCV (Remuneration commercialisation retail)

Systems:

Improved billing performance

Regulatory:

Failure to revise RCV

Competitors:

Increase in churn rate

Systems:

Migration of data and ''go-live'' of new billing system

Targets and Results

2016-2020 Business Plan Water

2016-2020 Business Plan Strategies, opportunities and risks

  • New Regulation: cycle 2016-2019 (quality award)
  • Acea 2.0 project: radical transformation, standardisation and integration of all IT systems, obtaining operating cost and process efficiencies
  • Overseas growth (Latin America)

  • ATO2-Roma (expiry 2032)

  • ATO5 Frosinone (exp. 2032)
  • Other ATOs:
  • ATO3 Firenze (exp. 2021)
  • ATO6 Siena-Grosseto (exp. 2026)
  • ATO2 Pisa (exp. 2021)
  • ATO1 Perugia (exp. 2027)
  • ATO3 Sarnese V. (exp. 2032)

Opportunities Risks

Regulatory:

  • Recognition of FoNI component (to finance new investment)
  • Introduction of a component linked to quality factor

Systems:

Improved billing performance

External growth:

Acquisition opportunities

Systems:

Roll out new IT platform

2016-2020 Business Plan

Regulatory Opportunities

Introduction of a component linked to quality factor

The new MTI-2 tariff method also provides incentive mechanisms for the improvement of the contractual and technical quality of the service, by introducing two different mechanisms of awards/penalties.

  1. The first one involves an award for performance improvements compared to the minimum standards defined by the national Authority. This mechanism is defined with the local Authority and the maximum amount of the premium is a function of the operator's efficiency in comparison to the national average.

In fact the premium is higher, the more the operator is efficient compared to the national average operating cost per customer served, set by the national Authority at 109 € per customer. The award is not subject to the tariff increase limit.

Relating to ATO2, for 2016 a quality award of maximun €30m has been approved. Acea foresees a quality award for 2016 equal to ~ €18m (not included in Business Plan targets)

ATO2 -
Quality
Awards (€m)
2017-2020
Total
Annual
impact
from 2019 on
Maximun
Value
104 35
Impact
included
in BP targets
62 24
ATO 5
No awards,
operating
cost
for customer
served
is
higher
than
national
avarage
  1. The second mechanism, which is valid throughout the entire Country, is supplied by a specific tariff component, mandatory for all operators, to be allocated to a specific fund for the quality. During the first activation this mechanism promotes, rewarding the best practices, the growth of the contractual quality levels with respect to the parameters defined by the resolution on the contractual quality (655/2015/R/idr). Not included in Business Plan targets

Recognition of FoNI component

FoNI
component (€m)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ATO2 21 23 19 9 6
ATO5 7 5 2 2 2

On 27 July 2016, the Mayors' Conference for the ATO2 concession area approved the tariff determinations for the period 2016-2019. The determinations establish that the tariff increases to be applied in 2016 are to be spread out over time, in return for recognition of a financial charge as compensation for the deferral.

Targets and Results

Net Debt (€m)

RAB: ATO2 Lazio Centrale

RAB: Companies consolidated using equity method

and ATO5 Frosinone

Acea Group: 2016-2020 Business Plan 23

2016-2020 Business Plan Grids

2016-2020 Business Plan Strategies, opportunities and risks

  • New Regulation: tariff cycle 2016-2023
  • Acea2.0 project: improvement of service quality, cost efficiencies
  • Modernisation of distribution network
  • Modernisation of public lighting network (''Roma LED'')

Opportunities Risks

Regulatory:

Recognition of t-1 depreciation in tariffs

Growth:

  • Acquisition of minor grids
  • IP LED technology in other municipalities

Systems:

Improved billing performance

Regulatory:

  • Impact of new regulatory cycle
  • Quality and service continuity

Systems:

Migration of data and go-live of new billing system

Targets and Results

2015 Plan 2020

Grids

2016-2020 Business Plan

Corporate

Targets and results

  • Further simplify the corporate structure
  • Facilitate synergies through Project Acea 2.0
  • Greater operational efficiency insourcing

2016-2020 Capex: €54m

2020 EBITDA: ~€3m

A solid base for the future Additional initiatives not included in Business Plan

ACQUISITIONS SUBJECT TO BoD DECISIONS

PROCESS SUBJECT TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES' AND PUBLIC SHAREHOLDERS' DECISIONS

* Consolidated using the equity method

Recent acquisitions

Initiatives already identified, but not included in the targets in Business Plan 2016-2020

Business Plan: Key Takeaways

2020 Pre-tax ROIC: 15.9% ACEA GROUP

2016-2020 CAPEX: €2.4bn

2020 EBITDA: €890m

CAGR EBITDA: +4.0%

DPS CAGR: 3%-6%

2020 NET DEBT: €2,252m

Environment

2020 EBITDA: €91m 2016-2020 CAPEX: €262m

Energy 2020 EBITDA: €138m 2016-2020 CAPEX: €159m 2020 Pre-tax ROIC: 13.9%

Water 2020 EBITDA: €380m 2016-2020 CAPEX: €1,042m 2020 Pre-tax ROIC: 11.5%

Grids 2020 EBITDA: €277m 2016-2020 CAPEX: €878m 2020 Pre-tax ROIC: 9.3%

Conclusions

Continued efforts in operating efficiency

Stable and predictable regulatory framework

Significant investment ensuring the Company's future growth

Strong financial position

Attractive shareholder returns as main strategic priority

Acea Group: 2016-2020 Business Plan 32 ACEA Group

Appendix

Appendix

9M 2016 Results - 3Q 2016 Results

1H 2016 Results

2015 Results

Water regulatory framework

Electricity Distribution regulatory framework

Main assumptions and sensitivity analysis

Environmental Sustainability

9M 2016 Financial highlights

(€m) 9M
2015
9M
2016
%
change
Consolidated revenues 2,167.7 2,047.5 -5.5%
EBITDA 530.9 646.1 +21.7% Impact of
accounting
for
Resolution
654/2015:
EBIT 284.8 378.1 +32.8% €76.5m
Profit/(loss) before tax 216.9 317.0 +46.2%
Group net profit/(loss) 136.6 200.9 47.1% Impact of
accounting
for
Resolution
654/2015:
Tax rate 34.6% 34.5% €51.5m
Capex 284.8 346.8 +21.8%
(€m) 30 Sept 2015
(a)
31 Dec 2015
(b)
30 Sep. 2016
(c)
Change
(c-a)
Change
(c-b)
NET DEBT 2,130.8 2,010.1 2,138.7 7.9 128.6
Shareholders' Equity 1,553.8 1,596.1 1,682.1 128.3 86.0
Invested
Capital
3,684.6 3,606.2 3,820.8 136.2 214.6

9M 2016 EBITDA

Number of employees 9M 2015 9M 2016
Acea Spa 640 624
Environment 220 248
Energy 539 556
Water 2,215 2,155
Network 1,348 1,309
Total* 4,962 4,892

* Figures does not include ~ 3,000 employees related to companies consolidated using the equity method

EBITDA €m

EBITDA 9M 2016

SAO: +€1.2m

(€m) 9M
2015
9M
2016
%
change
Key quantitative data 9M
2015
9M
2016
EBITDA 40.4 42.1 +4.2% Treatment and disposal
(/000s of tonnes)
570 607
Capex 14.9 30.3 +103.4 WTE electricity
sold (GWh)
196 196

Energy Electricity sales margin increase +€19.1m

EBITDA main drivers Electricity production margin decrease (fall in energy prices and volumes decrease) -€1.7m

(€m) 9M
2015
9M
2016
% change Key quantitative data 9M
2015
9M
2016
EBITDA
Production
77.7
25.8
95.1
24.1
+22.4%
-6.6%
Total electricity
production (GWh)
-
Of which
photovoltaic
production
380
12
308
9
Sales 51.9 71.0 +36.8% Total electricity
sold
(GWh)
Enhanced Protection Market
Free Market
7,200
2,283
4,917
6,271
2,036
4,235
Capex 14.6 38.7 165.1 (Mm3)
Total gas sold
88 77

Acea ATO2: +€34.8m (quality award €9m)

Overseas water operations: -€2.5m

(€m) 9M
2015
9M
2016
%
change
Key quantitative data 9M
2015
9M
2016
EBITDA 225.5 257.3 +14.1% Total volume of water sold
(Mm3)
316 309
Of which: Profit/(loss)
on
investments
consolidated
under IFRS11
20.8 20.8 -
Capex 128.3 150.4 +17.2%

On 27 July 2016, the Mayors' Conference for the ATO2 concession area approved the tariff determinations for the period 2016-2019. The determinations establish that the tariff increases to be applied in 2016 are to be spread out over time, in return for recognition of a market financial charge as compensation for the deferral.

EBITDA main drivers

  • Grids Recognition of the positive component linked to the regulatory change introduced by AEEGSI Resolution 654/2015: +€76.5m
  • Public Lighting: -€3.4m

Areti margin decrease (new tariff cycle 2016-2023): -€11.2m

(€m) 9M
2015
9M
2016
%
change
Key quantitative data 9M
2015
9M
2016
EBITDA 187.7 249.6 +33.0% Total electricity
distributed
(GWh)
7,959 7,594
Capex 102.4 120.6 +17.8%
Corporate Impact of accounting
654/2015: €76.5m
for Resolution
(€m) 9M
2015
2016 9M %
change
EBITDA (0.4) 2.0 n/m
Capex 24.6 6.9 n/m

9M 2016 EBIT and Net Profit

9M 2016 Cash flow

CASH FLOW ANALYSIS (€m) 9M
2015
2015 9M 2016
EBITDA 531 732 646
Change in net working capital (59) 98 (134)
Investment (287) (423) (349)
Free Cash Flow 185 407 164
Net finance income/(costs) (67) (90) (61)
Income tax expense (75) (115) (109)
Dividends (96) (96) (107)
Other 11 (27) (15)
Total Cash Flow (42) 79 (128)

* Before impairment losses on receivables

9M 2016 Net Debt

12 October 2016 Acea
announced
the
launch
of
a
tender
offer
for
the
partial
buyback
of
bonds
maturing
in
2018
and
2020,
amounting
to
a
total
of
€300,000,000.
19 October 2016 Acea
completed
the
placing
of
10-years
fixed
rate
bond
totalling
€500m
(as
part
of
€1.5bn
EMTN):
oversubscription
~2x;
gross
annual
coupon
1%;
issue
price
98.377%;
minimum
denomination
€100,000.
Listed
on
the
market
regulated
by
the
Luxembourg
Stock
Exchange.
24 October 2016 Acea
announced
that
it
had
received
valid
tenders
for
bonds
with
a
total
value
of
€346,836,000.

Thanks to the above transactions :

Extension of the average term to maturity of the debt: 7.8 years

Reduction of the average cost of the debt: 2.97%

3Q 2016 Financial highlights

Efficiency
Innovation
acea
Balanced risk profile
(€m) 3Q
2015
3Q
2016
%
change
Consolidated revenues 726.5 660.8 -9.0%
EBITDA 177.6 202.3 +13.9%
EBIT 82.2 104.0 +26.5%
Profit/(loss) before tax 60.0 84.6 +41.0%
Group net profit/(loss) 37.3 51.4 +37.8%
Environment
EBITDA main
drivers
(€m) 3Q
2015
3Q
2016
%
change
EBITDA 13.3 12.9 -3.0%
(€m) 3Q 3Q %
2015 2016 change
EBITDA 78.8 92.7 +17.6%
(€m) 3Q 3Q %
2015 2016 change
EBITDA 21.7 25.4 +17.1%
(€m) 3Q 3Q %
2015 2016 change
EBITDA 64.4 68.9 +7.0%

1H 2016 Results

1H 2016 Financial highlights

(€m) 1H 2015 1H 2016 %
change
Consolidated revenues 1,441.1 1,386.7 -3.8%
EBITDA 353.3 443.7 +25.6%
EBIT 202.7 274.1 +35.2% Impact of accounting
€63.3m
for Resolution 654/2015:
Profit/(loss) before tax 156.8 232.3 +48.2%
Net Profit/(Loss) 103.6 154.3 +48.9%
Minority Interest 4.3 4.8 +11.6%
Group net profit/(loss) 99.3 149.5 +50.6% Impact of accounting
€41.0m
for Resolution 654/2015:
Capex 167.5 220.8 +31.8%
(€m) 30 June 2015
(a)
31 Dec 2015
(b)
30 June 2016
(c)
Change
(c-a)
Change
(c-b)
NET DEBT 2,128.9 2,010.1 2,131.9 3.0 121.8
Shareholders' Equity 1,518.6 1,596.1 1,631.4 112.8 35.3
Invested
Capital
3,647.5 3,606.2 3,763.3 115.8 157.1

2015 Results

2015 Financial highlights

(€m) 2014 2015 Change %
Revenue 3,038.3 2,917.3 -4.0%
EBITDA 717.7 732.0 +2.0%
Increased
depreciation and
EBIT 390.4 386.5 -1.0% growth amortisation
(capex
intangible
growth:
assets
resulting
Profit/(loss) before tax 289.8 296.4 +2.3% from the entry in operation
information technology)
of
Taxes* 120.9 114.9 -5.0%
Reduced
(improved
bad
debt
collections)
provisions
Net profit/(loss) 168.9 181.5 +7.5%
Increased
provisions
Minority interest 6.4 6.5 +1.6%
Group net profit/(loss) 162.5 175.0 +7.7%
Dividend per share (€) 0.45 0.50 +11.1%
Capex 318.5 428.9 +34.7% 84% of capex
regards
businesses, with positive impact on
development
of RAB
regulated
(€m) 31 Dec 2014
(a)
30 Sept 2015
(b)
31 Dec 2015
(c)
Change
(c/a)
Change
(c/b)
NET DEBT 2,089.1 2,130.8 2,010.1 -3.8% -5.7%
Shareholders' Equity 1,502.4 1,553.8 1,596.1 +6.2% +2.7%
Invested Capital 3,591.5 3,684.6 3,606.2 +0.4% -2.1%

*Tax expense reflects the negative impact of the reassessment of deferred taxation:

- recognition, in 2014, of a charge of €17.1m due to abolition of "Robin Hood Tax";

- recognition, in 2015, of a charge of €19.9m due to reduction in IRES rate from 2017 (2016 Stability Law).

(€m) 2014 2015 % change Key quantitative data 2014 2015
EBITDA 54.5 57.4 +5.3% Treatment and disposal
('000s of tonnes)
774 765
Capex 13.3 25.9 +94.7% WTE electricity
sold (GWh)
249 265

Electricity production: +€0.4m Fall in energy prices and reduced volumes Consolidation of photovoltaic business

Electricity sales: -€4.1m

Recognition of non-recurring item

Increased margin from enhanced protection market due to revised retail price Reduced margin from free market (lower volumes)

(€m) 2014 2015 %
change
Key quantitative data 2014 2015
EBITDA 111.6 107.9 -3.3% Total Electricity
production (GWh)
513 470
Production 33.8 34.2 +1.2% Total Electricity
sold
(GWh)
10,887 9,419
Sales 77.8 73.7 -5.3% Enhanced Protection Market 3,000 2,951
Free Market 7,887 6,468
Capex 19.7 30.6 +55.3% Total Gas sold
(Mmc)
103 126

Efficiency Acea ATO2: tariff increase +€16.7m

Growth at companies consolidated using the equity method +€9.6m

Overseas water operations: +€0.4m

Recognition, in 2014, of non-recurring items by Acea Ato2 for adjustments

(€m) 2014 2015 % change Key quantitative data 2014 2015
EBITDA 292.2 310.8 +6.4% Total volume of water sold 540 527
of which: Profit/(Loss) on
investments consolidated
under IFRS 11
19.0 28.6 +50.5% (Mmc)
Capex 148.9 204.4 +37.3%
  • Operational efficiency and new technologies
  • Acea Distribuzione margin increase
  • Pubblic Lighting margin increase
  • Deconsolidation of photovoltaic business
(€m) 2014 2015 % change Key quantitative data 2014 2015
EBITDA 253.3 255.7 +0.9% Total Electricity
distributed
10,294 10,557
Capex 122.4 156.2 +27.6% (GWh)
(€m) 2014 2015 % change
EBITDA 6.1 0.2 n.s.
Capex 14.2 11.8 -16.9%

Regulatory framework

Water regulatory framework

RESOLUTION 664/2015 "Approval of the Water Tariff Regime for the second regulatory period MTI-2" 28 December 2015

On 28 December of last year, the AEEGSI approved its Final Resolution (664/2015), setting out the Water Tariff Regime for the second regulatory period (2016-2019).

The applicable regulations are broadly based on a matrix chart with 6 different quadrants relating to: the ratio of required capex to the value of existing infrastructure; eventual changes in the operator's objectives or operations (consolidation, significant improvements in service quality); the value of the operator's opex per inhabitant served compared with the estimated average opex for the sector as a whole in 2014.

Key points in the Resolution are set out below:

  • The duration of the regulatory period has been set at four years, with biennial revision of the RAB and of controllable opex. The cost of debt and tax expense may be reviewed every two years in the event of "significant changes".
  • There is further support for the consolidation process, allowing for tariffs to be standardised in the event of a combination of operators holding concessions for different areas.
  • A system of quality performance rewards and penalties has been introduced. The reward component is excluded from any tariff caps.
  • Application of a tariff multiplier has been confirmed.
  • The "sharing" mechanism has been confirmed, based on a matrix that penalises the least efficient operators.
  • The mechanism for allowing for a portion of late payment costs has been defined (80% of the costs effectively incurred by operators), taking into account the varying impact of this problem throughout the country (North: 2.1% of turnover; Central: 3.8% of turnover; South: 7.1% of turnover) and providing incentives for the adoption of efficient credit management solutions.
  • The "ψ" parameter, on which determination of the component intended to pre-finance the cost of new investment (FNI), may be selected within a range of 0.4-0.8.
  • The distinction between non-controllable and controllable opex has been retained. Costs linked to the integration of operations and/or significant improvements in service quality are also allowed for.
  • The cost of debt has been set at 2.8% (compared with 2% for the electricity sector).
  • The ERP (Equity Risk Premium) is 4% (compared with 5.5% for the electricity sector).
  • The real RF (Risk Free) rate is 0.5%, determined on the basis of yields on 10-year euro area government bonds with ratings of at least "AA" (in line with the electricity sector).
  • The WRP (Water Risk Premium) is 1.5% (compared with a CRP Country Risk Premium of 1% used in the electricity sector).
  • The 1% time-lag for capex has been confirmed.

Based on the provisions in the Resolution, the WACC for the Water sector is 5.34% (compared with 6.1% for the regulatory period 2014-2015 and 6.4% for the period 2012-2013).

Electricity Distribution regulatory framework

RESOLUTION 654/2015 and 583/2015

"Tariff regulation for the supply of electricity transmission, distribution and metering services in the regulatory period 2016-2023" (December, 2015)

"Rate of return on capital invested in infrastructure services in the electricity and gas sectors: criteria for determination and revision" (December, 2015)

The Regulator has extended the duration of the regulatory period to eight years, dividing it into two sub-periods, each lasting four years. In the second sub-period (2020-2023), a Totex-based approach will be introduced.

Key points in the Resolution are set out below:

  • Opex based on 2014 figures.
  • Equal allocation of productivity improvements (sharing) among users and operators (50%-50%).
  • Greater selectivity applied to capex, with particular attention paid to service quality.
  • A reduction in the time-lag from 2 to 1 year.
  • Confirmation of the determination of net working capital with reference to parameters based on net fixed assets, applying a lower percentage than the one applied in previous regulatory periods.

GAS GRIDS

The WACC is fixed for two years (2016-2017) for the transmission service and for three years (2016-2018) for gas distribution and storage:

Gas transmission: 5.4% (compared with the previous 6.3%);

Gas distribution: 6.1% (compared with the previous 6.9%);

Storage: 6.5% (compared with the previous 6.0%).

ELECTRICITY GRIDS

The WACC is fixed for three years (2016-2018) for the electricity transmission and distribution

Electricity transmission: 5.3% (compared with the previous 6.3%)

Electricity distribution: 5.6% (compared with the previous 6.4%)

Main assumptions

Main assumptions

Main
assumptions
2015 2016
Plan
2017
Plan
2018
Plan
2019
Plan
2020
Plan
Exchange \$/€ 1.110 1.119 1.031 1.082 1.180 1.220
Brent \$/Bbl 52.4 53.6 61.8 66.9 69.0 75.0
PUN €/MWh 52.3 47.7 45.8 46.8 47.6 48.6
Green
certificates
€/MWh 100.1 102.0 104.7 103.9 103.3 102.5
EU-ETS €/tons
of CO2
7.7 10.8 10.3 12.2 13.3 14.5
CIP6 €/MWh 224.6 217.9 225.6 227.0 224.4 226.8

Sensitivity analysis on key drivers

Sensitivity to oil prices (dollar per barrel impact in €m on Group EBITDA) GROUP EBITDA +1\$/Barrel 0.14€m

Acea Group Presentation

ACEA – SUSTAINABILITY

Acea is assessed by leading analysts, rating Agencies and ESG asset managers:

  • Oekom Research
  • Vigeo
  • KeplerCheuvreux
  • Forum Ethibel
  • Kempen SNS

GOVERNANCE

  • Acea has more women on its Board of Directors than any other listed company (44%)
  • Acea SpA's Chairwoman has the authority to oversee activities and corporate processes relating to aspects of environmental impact and social sustainability
  • The Sustainability Report is published with the Annual Report
  • The Sustainability Plan for 2016-2020 is being prepared
  • Acea's Ethics Committee consisting of 3 Directors and 2 external members – promotes and oversees application of the

Group's Code of Ethics, art. 7 of which focuses on Sustainability

SOCIAL

  • Acea has financed and supported around 800 projects presented by members of the public and associations from Rome's district councils
  • The ELENA (Experimenting Flexible Labour Tools for Enterprises by Engaging Men And Women) project is part of the European REC (Rights, Equality and Citizenship) programme, which aims to trial flexible forms of labour designed to improve the work-life balance
  • Long-standing relationships with suppliers in order to establish lasting partnerships

ENVIRONMENTAL

  • Satellite monitoring used to protect drinking water sources
  • 78% of the electricity generated is produced from renewable sources (613 GWh out of 783 GWh)
  • Low carbon footprint for the water distribution system (0.41 kg of CO2/m3)
  • Composting as a means of promoting a circular economy
  • AReti has a major Italian presence in smart grids and LED lighting
  • RoMA (Resilience enhancement of Metropolitan Areas) project – advanced models for services and the management and experimentation of new forms of interaction between citizens and the public sector in critical situations

Acea is engaged on CSR also through its COP (Communication on Progress) promoted by Global Compact Network. From 2014 the Acea COP qualifies for Advanced level - only 12 Italian Companies.

The last Acea ranking (99 B) represents a high level of transparency in the communication of practices adopted to combat climate change and the ability to limit the carbon footprint of processes. In the Utilities sector, in which seven enterprises are represented, Acea achieved the third best evaluation, behind Enel and Snam.

Organization Answer:
Public/
Not Public Score
Final
Utilities
A2A Public 96C
ACEA SpA Public 99B
Enel Green Power SpA SA N/A
ENEL SpA Public 100B
Hera Public 98B
Iren SpA Public 97C
Snam S.P.A Public 100B
Terna Public 96C

Acea signs up to the UN's Global Compact from 2007, committing to integrate the ten principles regarding human rights and labour, environmental protection and efforts to combat corruption into its strategic vision and organisational culture and to support the UN's wider Sustainable Development Goals. Through its Communications on Progress (COPs), Acea informs stakeholders about the activities carried out and the results achieved. From 2014, Acea's COPs have been classified as Advanced, in that they go beyond the basic requirements. There are 1,735 companies in the world out of 20,540 classified as Advanced, including 12 in Italy.

The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), the organisation that assesses corporate disclosure regarding climate change and water, has ranked Acea as 99B, indicating a high degree of transparency in its communication of the measures adopted to combat climate change and its ability to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Acea is the third best performer among Italian utilities after Enel and Snam.

Acea Group: 2016-2020 Business Plan 61 Acea Group Presentation ACEA Group

Coming soon: next challenges concerning Sustainability

2016 Corporate Governance Code for Listed Companies and application of corporate social responsibility principles

2017

EU Directive 95/2014 as regards disclosure of non-financial and diversity information

Acea is ready to comply with upcoming disclosure obligations and grasp the opportunities arising from the strategic management of aspects of ESG in its operations, to ensure the sustainable creation of shared value

Disclaimer

THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS CERTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT REFLECT THE COMPANY'S MANAGEMENT'S CURRENT VIEWS WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE EVENTS AND FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE OF THE COMPANY AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES.

THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON ACEA S.P.A.'S CURRENT EXPECTATIONS AND PROJECTIONS ABOUT FUTURE EVENTS. BECAUSE THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, ACTUAL FUTURE RESULTS OR PERFORMANCE MAY MATERIALLY DIFFER FROM THOSE EXPRESSED THEREIN OR IMPLIED THEREBY DUE TO ANY NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BEYOND THE ABILITY OF ACEA S.P.A. TO CONTROL OR ESTIMATE PRECISELY, INCLUDING CHANGES IN THE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, FUTURE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRICE AND AVAILABILITY OF FUEL AND OTHER RISKS.

YOU ARE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN, WHICH ARE MADE ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. ACEA S.P.A. DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO PUBLICLY RELEASE ANY UPDATES OR REVISIONS TO ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT EVENTS OR CIRCUMSTANCES AFTER THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.

THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING THE SECURITIES OF THE COMPANY.

***

PURSUANT TO ART. 154-BIS, PAR. 2, OF THE LEGISLATIVE DECREE N. 58 OF FEBRUARY 24, 1998, THE EXECUTIVE IN CHARGE OF PREPARING THE CORPORATE ACCOUNTING DOCUMENTS AT ACEA, DEMETRIO MAURO CFO OF THE COMPANY - DECLARES THAT THE ACCOUNTING INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN CORRESPOND TO DOCUMENT RESULTS, BOOKS AND ACCOUNTING RECORDS.