Investor Presentation • May 10, 2016
Investor Presentation
Open in ViewerOpens in native device viewer
May 10, 2016 Hermann J. Merkens, CEO
Main focus for new business in markets with attractive risk/return profile like North America
Partly tightened requirements for new business regarding LTV
Regulatory projects in progress
| Q1 2016 |
Q4 2015 |
Q3 2015 |
Q2 2015 |
Q1 2015 |
Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| € mn |
||||||
| Net interest income (excl. unplanned effects from early repayments) |
180 (180) |
198 (183) |
214 (192) |
191 (181) |
178 (173) |
NII decrease mainly due to Run down of NCA (as planned) Lower effects from early repayments (vs. Q4), FY-expectations of € 35 mn (vs. € 23 mn '15) |
| Allow. for credit losses | 2 | 42 | 37 | 31 | 18 | Within seasonal variation |
| Net commission income | 46 | 52 | 40 | 42 | 41 | Strong Q1-performance of Aareon supporting its FY-target |
| Admin expenses | 146 | 138 | 147 | 136 | 132 | Includes € 17 mn for European bank levy € 10 mn one-offs from integrations as well as from project / investment costs Operating admin expenses for WestImmo, phi-Consulting and Square DMS |
| Operating profit | 87 | 92 | 82 | 2291) 791) |
67 | Strong operating profit characterised by low risk costs |
| Earnings per share [€] | 0.85 | 1.01 | 0.78 | 3.271) 0.773) |
0.60 |
1) Including negative goodwill from WestImmo takeover, adjusted
2) Adjusted
| P&L C/S Segment | Q1 '16 | Q4 '15 | Q3 '15 | Q2 '15 | Q1 '15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| € mn |
|||||
| Sales revenue | 49 | 56 | 44 | 47 | 46 |
| Own work capitalised | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Changes in inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other operating income | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Cost of material purchased | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Staff expenses | 36 | 37 | 35 | 33 | 34 |
| D, A, impairment losses | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Results at equity acc. investm. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other operating expenses | 14 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| Results from interest and similar |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating profit | -9 | -2 | -7 | -7 | -7 |
1) Additional effects exceeding originally planned repayments
Credit risk core business ARL Credit risk core business WIB Credit risk non core assets WIB Credit risk non core assets CCB Operational risk Market risk
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Additional Tier 1 (AT1) Tier 2 (T2)
1) Other assets includes € 1.4 bn private client portfolio and WIB's € 0.6 bn public sector loans
Conservative balance sheet with structural over borrowed position
1) Other assets includes € 1.4 bn private client portfolio and WIB's € 0.6 bn public sector loans
Conservative balance sheet with structural over borrowed position
As at 31.03.2016
1) CRE business only, private client business (€ 1.4 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.6 bn) not included
| 31.03.2016 | 31.12.2015 | |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage ratio specific allowance |
30% | 31% |
| Coverage ratio including portfolio allowance |
40% | 40% |
Portfolio allowance Specific allowance Collaterals NPL exposure
All NPLs are fully covered despite being in different workout-stages
As at 31.03.2016 – all figures are nominal amounts 1) Composite Rating
| 2016 | |
|---|---|
| Net interest income | € 700 mn - € 740 mn incl. effects from early repayments (Original plan 2016: € 35 mn / FY 2015: € 75 mn) |
| Allow. for credit losses1) | € 80 mn - € 120 mn |
| Net commission income | € 190 mn - € 200 mn |
| Admin expenses | € 520 mn - € 550 mn incl. expenses for integration / projects and investments |
| Operating profit | € 300 mn - € 330 mn |
| Pre-tax RoE | ~ 11% |
| EpS2) | € 2.85 - € 3.19 |
| Target portfolio size (ARL core portfolio) |
€ 25 bn - € 27 bn |
| New business origination | € 7 bn - € 8 bn |
| Operating profit Aareon3) | € 33 mn - € 35 mn |
1) As in 2015, the bank cannot rule out additional allowances for credit losses
2) Earnings per ordinary share, tax rate of ~31% assumed
3) After segment adjustments
Key takeaways at a glance
Aareal Bank Group continues successful development of recent years also in the first quarter of the current financial year, despite an even lower interest rate environment
Target operating profit for the full year confirmed after good start into the 2016 financial year
Exploiting new earnings potential via the "Aareal 2020" program
Appendix Aareal 2020
Tougher competition and changing clients' needs
Volatile markets (interest rates / exchange rates, oil)
Increasingly stringent regulation, historically low interest rate environment
Technological change and digitalisation
Geopolitical risks
As published February 25, 2016
| Regulation § |
Basel IV effects in line with our expectations Increasing regulation does not lead to additional (material) burdens |
|---|---|
| Property markets |
Property values: stable (EU), slightly increasing (US) Ongoing liquidity driven property markets, therefore increasingly inherent portfolio risks (esp. in Europe) |
| Macro economic environ ment |
Economic development: Euro zone sideways US and some EU countries more dynamic Interest rates: Euro zone: moderate increase starting '17 US: continued increase this year No euro zone break-up, no "Brexit", no strengthening of nationalistic tendencies in Europe No adverse development of geopolitical conflicts |
ASSUMPTIONS APPLY TO FOLLOWING PAGES 35
Aareal 2020
Create sustainable value for all stakeholders
As published February 25, 2016
As published February 25, 2016
1) Management buffer of 2.25% planned until regulatory environment is sufficiently stable
Gain new customer groups, tap new markets
Further enhance agility, innovation and willingness to adapt
As published February 25, 2016
Leverage position as leading provider of ERP solutions in Europe to achieve future growth
Further develop existing business
Gain new customer groups, tap new markets
Further enhance agility, innovation and willingness to adapt
As published February 25, 2016
1) The future dividend policy applies provided that the dividend payments resulting from it are consistent with a long-term and sustained business development of Aareal Bank AG. In addition, the dividend payments are subject to the proviso that
corresponding dividend proposals have been made by the Management Board and the Supervisory Board for the respective year.
Appendix Group results
| 01.01.- 31.03.2016 € mn |
01.01.- 31.03.2015 € mn |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profit and loss account | |||
| Net interest income | 180 | 178 | 1% |
| Allowance for credit losses | 2 | 18 | -89% |
| Net interest income after allowance for credit losses | 178 | 160 | 11% |
| Net commission income | 46 | 41 | 12% |
| Net result on hedge accounting | 1 | 11 | -91% |
| Net trading income / expenses | 9 | -7 | |
| Results from non-trading assets | 0 | -3 | |
| Results from investments accounted for at equity | 0 | 0 | |
| Administrative expenses | 146 | 132 | 11% |
| Net other operating income / expenses | -1 | -3 | |
| Negative goodwill | |||
| Operating Profit | 87 | 67 | 30% |
| Income taxes | 27 | 22 | 23% |
| Consolidated net income | 60 | 45 | 33% |
| Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests | 5 | 5 | 0% |
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 55 | 40 | 38% |
| Earnings per share (EpS) | |||
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) | 55 | 40 | 38% |
| of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders | 51 | 36 | 42% |
| of which: allocated to AT1 investors | 4 | 4 | 0% |
| Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) | 0.85 | 0.60 | 42% |
| Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0% |
1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.
2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.
3) Eanings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.
| Financing | Structured Property |
Consulting / Services |
Consolidation/ Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.01.- | 01.01.- | 01.01.- | 01.01.- | 01.01.- | 01.01.- | 01.01.- | 01.01.- | |
| 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | |
| 2016 | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | |
| € mn | ||||||||
| Net interest income | 182 | 178 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 180 | 178 |
| Allowance for credit losses | 2 | 18 | 2 | 18 | ||||
| Net interest income after allowance for credit losses | 180 | 160 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 178 | 160 |
| Net commission income | 2 | 0 | 42 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 41 |
| Net result on hedge accounting | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | ||||
| Net trading income / expenses | 9 | -7 | 9 | -7 | ||||
| Results from non-trading assets | 0 | -3 | 0 | -3 | ||||
| Results from investments accounted for at equity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Administrative expenses | 95 | 84 | 51 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 132 |
| Net other operating income / expenses | -1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3 |
| Negative goodwill | ||||||||
| Operating profit | 96 | 74 | -9 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 67 |
| Income taxes | 30 | 24 | -3 | -2 | 27 | 22 | ||
| Consolidated net income | 66 | 50 | -6 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45 |
| Allocation of results | ||||||||
| Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling interests | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 62 | 46 | -7 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 40 |
| Structured Property | Financing | Consulting / Services | Consolidation / Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q1 | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | |
| 2016 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 | |
| € mn | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net interest income | 182 | 199 | 214 | 192 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 180 | 198 | 214 | 191 | 178 |
| Allowance for credit losses | 2 | 42 | 37 | 31 | 18 | 2 | 42 | 37 | 31 | 18 | ||||||||||
| Net interest income after | ||||||||||||||||||||
| allowance for credit losses | 180 | 157 | 177 | 161 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 178 | 156 | 177 | 160 | 160 |
| Net commission income | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 49 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 52 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
| Net result on hedge accounting | 1 | 3 | -3 | -3 | 11 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -3 | 11 | ||||||||||
| Net trading income / expenses | 9 | 5 | 13 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 2 | -7 | ||||||||
| Results from non-trading assets | 0 | -2 | -13 | 1 | -3 | 0 | -2 | -13 | 1 | -3 | ||||||||||
| Results from results accounted | ||||||||||||||||||||
| for at equity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Administrative expenses | 95 | 85 | 101 | 89 | 84 | 51 | 54 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 146 | 138 | 147 | 136 | 132 |
| Net other operating income / | ||||||||||||||||||||
| expenses | -1 | 14 | 14 | 12 | -3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 16 | 15 | 13 | -3 |
| Negative goodwill | 1501) | 1501) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Operating profit | 96 | 94 | 89 | 2361) | 74 | -9 | -2 | -7 | -7 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 92 | 82 | 2291) | 67 |
| Income taxes | 30 | 27 | 29 | 26 | 24 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -2 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 22 | |||||
| Consolidated net income | 66 | 67 | 60 | 2101) | 50 | -6 | 1 | -4 | -5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 68 | 56 | 2051) | 45 |
| Cons. net income attributable to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| non-controlling interests | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||||
| Cons. net income attributable to | ||||||||||||||||||||
| shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 62 | 64 | 55 | 2061) | 46 | -7 | 0 | -4 | -6 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 64 | 51 | 2001) | 40 |
Appendix AT1: ADI of Aareal Bank AG
Available Distributable Items (as of end of the relevant year)
| 31.12. 2015 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2013 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| € mn |
|||
| Net Retained Profit Net income Profit carried forward from previous year Net income attribution to revenue reserves |
99 99 - - |
77 77 - - |
50 50 - - |
| + Other revenue reserves after net income attribution |
720 | 715 | 710 |
| Total dividend potential before amount blocked1) = |
819 | 792 | 760 |
| ./. Dividend amount blocked under section 268 (8) of the German Commercial Code |
287 | 240 | 156 |
| = Available Distributable Items1) | 532 | 552 | 604 |
| + Increase by aggregated amount of interest expenses relating to Distributions on Tier 1 Instruments1) |
46 | 57 | 57 |
| = Amount referred to in the relevant paragraphs of the terms and conditions of the respective Notes as being available to cover Interest Payments on the Notes and Distributions on other Tier 1 Instruments1) |
578 | 609 | 661 |
Appendix Development property finance portfolio
Diversification continuously strengthened (in € mn)
Appendix Acquisition of WestImmo
1) As published February 22, 2015
Transaction represents attractive opportunity for Aareal Bank to pursue inorganic growth as it is EpS accretive and creating shareholder value from day one while mid-term targets unchanged
Acquisition using existing excess capital demonstrates strength and strategic capacity while generating further excess capital and therefore dividend distribution potential at the same time
Immediate (inorganic) growth of interest earning asset base in times of increasing competition
Perfect overlap to Aareal's core business further strengthens position as a specialised commercial real estate lender
International well experienced staff and platform maintained despite currently not being allowed to write new business (acc. to EU-regulations) and therefore in run-down mode
High diversification of CRE portfolio and conservative risk profile remains unchanged
Optimisation of capital structure in line with communicated strategy
1) As published February 22, 2015
| Strategy and business modell |
WestImmo is a specialist in international commercial real estate financing focussing on office, shopping center, hotel and logistics, headquartered in Mainz / Münster Additional activities for private clients and public sector Originally focussing on Europe, the US and Asia with international locations Balance sheet of ~ € 8.1 bn (~ € 3.3 bn RWA), thereof CRE business ~ € 4.3 bn, private clients ~ € 1.6 bn, public sector ~ € 0.8 bn (pro forma extrapolated as at 31.03.2015) 280 employees (~ 255 FTE) |
|---|---|
| History | WestImmo was a subsidiary of former WestLB After the split of former WestLB into Portigon AG and Erste Abwicklungsanstalt (EAA) in September 2012, WestImmo became a 100%-subsidiary of EAA WestImmo has either to be sold or to be wind down (acc. to EU-regulations) and therefore was not allowed to write new business since H2 2012 In order to prepare an open, transparent and non-discriminatory bidding process in H1 2014 non Pfandbriefbank "suitable" assets and liabilities were transferred to EAA via carve out |
1) As published February 22, 2015
| Transaction | All cash transaction to acquire 100% of the shares Via pre-closing carve out, all funding provided and financial guarantees given from EAA to WestImmo will be terminated. At the same time specific assets will be transferred from WestImmo to EAA. In addition Aareal Bank provides WestImmo an external credit- / liquidity-line Profit until closing to be paid to EAA Fair / conservative valuation; attractive asset and liability spreads logged in Extensive due diligence carried out 350 mn2) Attractive purchase price of € |
|---|---|
| Closing conditions |
Subject to BaFin / ECB approval Subject to anti-trust approval |
2) Subject to further adjustments
No capital relief from switch of rating model (WestImmo already on AIRBA)
RoE
Dividend policy
Reconfirming active dividend policy with payout ratios of ~50% (excl. negative goodwill)
1) As published February 22, 2015
2) Pro forma extrapolated, assumed closing 31.03.2015
Purchase price illustration2)
1) As published February 22, 2015
2) Pro forma extrapolated, assumed closing 31.03.2015
| Private client loans |
Volume of € 1.6 bn extrapolated as at 31.03.2015 All non performing loans have been carved out, purely performing business with average LtV < 60% Outstandings < 100 T€: 58%, 100 – 150 T€: 24%, 150 – 200 T€: 10%, 200 – 250 T€: 4%; 250 – 500: <4%; > 500 T€: <1% > 50% in Baden Wuerttemberg, Bayern, Hessen, and NRW Historical defaults on that portfolio in the very, very low double digit area (bp) Potential risks from clawbacks regarding loan fees ("Rückforderungen von Bearbeitungsgebühren)" and faulty revocation clause ("fehlerhafte Widerrufsbelehrungen") will be covered by the seller |
|---|---|
| Public sector loans |
Volume of € 0.8 bn extrapolated as at 31.03.2015 Loans, warranties or guaranties to German sub-sovereign bodies |
| 1) As published February 22, 2015 2) |
Pro forma extrapolated as at 31.03.2015 |
Appendix Revaluation surplus
Change mainly driven by asset spreads
Appendix Capital ratios, CET1 development and RWA-split
SREP requirement Other buffer, estimate Countercyclical buffer
1) Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP)
Effective date 31/03/2016
1) Amounts to € 36 mn
2) Amounts to € 4 mn
© 2016 Aareal Bank AG. All rights reserved.
Building tools?
Free accounts include 100 API calls/year for testing.
Have a question? We'll get back to you promptly.