Investor Presentation • May 9, 2019
Investor Presentation
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May 09, 2019 Marc Hess, CFO


| Highlights | |
|---|---|
| Q1 operating profit of € 61 mn (Q1/2018: € 67 mn) in line with expectations |
|
| ▪ Strong new business margins in the structured property financing segment ▪ Aareon's sales revenues further increased |
|
| Integration of DHB as planned; ~2/3 of the expected integration costs already booked in Q1 | |
| Targets 2019 confirmed | |



1) incl. private client business (€ 0.5 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn)

| P&L C/S Segment | Q1 '18 | Q2 '18 | Q3 '18 | Q4 '18 | Q1 '19 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| € mn | ||||||||
| Net interest income | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | |||
| Loss allowance | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | |||
| ▪ Thereof Aareon |
0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | |||
| Net commission income | 50 | 49 | 51 | 62 | 52 | |||
| ▪ Thereof Aareon |
46 | 47 | 47 | 57 | 49 | |||
| − Sales revenues |
55 | 57 | 56 | 69 | 59 | |||
| − Material costs |
9 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10 | |||
| Admin expenses | 55 | 55 | 56 | 61 | 58 | |||
| ▪ Thereof Aareon |
40 | 41 | 41 | 43 | 41 | |||
| Net other op. income | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |||
| ▪ Thereof Aareon |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Operating profit | -8 | -8 | -7 | 1 | -9 | |||
| ▪ Thereof Aareon |
6 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
▪ Aareon




| € mn | Q1 '18 | Q2 '18 | Q3 '18 | Q4 '18 | Q1 '19 | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 133 | 136 | 131 | 135 | 135 | Reflecting stable portfolio, slightly up y-o-y |
| Derecognition result | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | € 12 mn effect from treasury portfolio adjustments |
| Loss allowance | 0 | 19 | 14 | 39 | 5 | Within expected range, Q1 regularly below average due to seasonal effects |
| Net commission income | 50 | 51 | 51 | 63 | 53 | Aareon's sales revenues further increased |
| FV- / hedge-result |
1 | -5 | 1 | -1 | 6 | |
| Admin expenses | 128 | 109 | 107 | 118 | 144 | Incl. DHB integration, ESF, European banking levy |
| Negative goodwill | 55 | |||||
| Others | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | |
| Operating profit | 67 | 62 | 70 | 117 | 61 | In line with expectations |
| Income taxes | 23 | 21 | 24 | 22 | 21 | FY 2019 tax ratio of ~34% assumed |
| Minorities / AT1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
| Consolidated net income allocated to ord. shareholders |
39 | 37 | 41 | 91 | 35 | |
| Earnings per share [€] | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.70 | 1.51 | 0.59 |














1) Underlying RWA estimate, given a 72.5 % output floor based on the final Basel Committee framework dated 7 December 2017, calculation subject to outstanding EU implementation as well as the implementation of further regulatory requirements
2) Expected relevant TRIM effects on CREF portfolio and SREP recommendations with respect to NPL guidelines (NPL stock) from ECB


Strong investor demand for fixed income products result in high issuance activities and decreasing funding spreads for Pfandbriefe and senior unsecured transactions


Treasury portfolio reduction by active de-risking
1) CREF-portfolio only, private client business (€ 0.5 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn) not included



1) Incl. Student housing (UK & Australia only)


Defaulted exposure / Total CREF portfolio
Defaulted exposure




by asset class Q1 2019 (vs. Q4 2018) by rating1) Q1 2019 (vs. Q4 2018)


As at 31.03.2019 – all figures are nominal amounts 1) Composite Rating


| Net interest income | ▪ € 530 mn - € 560 mn |
|---|---|
| Derecognition result | ▪ € 20 mn - € 40 mn |
| Allowance for credit losses1) | ▪ € 50 mn - € 80 mn |
| Net commission income | ▪ € 225 mn - € 245 mn |
| Admin expenses | ▪ € 470 mn - € 510 mn |
| Operating profit | ▪ € 240 mn - € 280 mn |
| Pre-tax RoE | ▪ 8.5% - 10% |
| EpS | ▪ ~ € 2.40 - € 2.80 |
| Target portfolio size | ▪ € 26 bn - € 28 bn |
| New business origination2) | ▪ € 7 bn - € 8 bn |
| Operating profit Aareon3) | ▪ ~ € 35 mn (~ € 41 mn before strategic investments) |
Expected 2019 results on good 2018 (clean) level despite strategic investments, DHB integration costs and the lack of positive 2018 effects from reversal of provisions


In a challenging environment, Aareal Bank Group started well into the financial year 2019. This shows that our operating business continues to be very robust and our strategy works well.

After a successful start into 2019, Aareal Bank Group confirms its FY targets. We remain confident that we will achieve an operating result on the previous year's level (adjusted for one-off effects).

Aareal Bank Group consistently continues implementing its "Aareal 2020" strategy by focussing on particularly attractive opportunities in the CRE lending business and starting a major digital initiative at its subsidiary Aareon.


Appendix Group results

| 01.01.- 31.03.2019 |
01.01.- 31.03.2018 |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| € mn | € mn | ||
| Profit and loss account | |||
| Net interest income | 135 | 133 | 2% |
| Loss allowance | 5 | 0 | |
| Net commission income | 53 | 50 | 6% |
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 16 | 6 | 167% |
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting | 0 | -2 | -100% |
| Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method | 0 | ||
| Administrative expenses | 144 | 128 | 13% |
| Net other operating income / expenses | 0 | 5 | -100% |
| Negative goodwill from acquisitions | |||
| Operating Profit | 61 | 67 | -9% |
| Income taxes | 21 | 23 | -9% |
| Consolidated net income | 40 | 44 | -9% |
| Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests | 1 | 1 | |
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 39 | 43 | -9% |
| Earnings per share (EpS) | |||
| Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) | 39 | 43 | -9% |
| of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders | 35 | 39 | -10% |
| of which: allocated to AT1 investors | 4 | 4 | |
| Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) | 0.59 | 0.65 | -9% |
| Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.

| Structured Property Financing |
Consulting / Services |
Consolidation/ Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.01.- | 01.01- | 01.01.- | 01.01- | 01.01.- | 01.01- | 01.01.- | 01.01- | |
| 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | 31.03. | |
| 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 | 2018 | |
| € mn | ||||||||
| Net interest income1) | 138 | 136 | -3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 133 |
| Loss allowance | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ||
| Net commission income1) | 2 | 1 | 52 | 50 | -1 | -1 | 53 | 50 |
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 16 | 6 | 16 | 6 | ||||
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| Net gain or loss on hedge accounting | 0 | -2 | 0 | -2 | ||||
| Net gain or loss from investments | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| accounted for using the equity method | ||||||||
| Administrative expenses | 87 | 74 | 58 | 55 | -1 | -1 | 144 | 128 |
| Net other operating income / expenses | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Negative goodwill from acquisitions | ||||||||
| Operating profit | 70 | 75 | -9 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 67 |
| Income taxes | 24 | 26 | -3 | -3 | 21 | 23 | ||
| Consolidated net income | 46 | 49 | -6 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 44 |
| Allocation of results | ||||||||
| Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling interests | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG | 46 | 49 | -7 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 43 |
1) As of this reporting year, interest on deposits from the housing industry is shown under the net interest income of the Consulting/Services segment (previously included in net commission income).
The previous year's figures were adjusted accordingly
| Structured Property Financing |
Consulting / Services | Consolidation / Reconciliation |
Aareal Bank Group | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2019 |
Q4 | Q3 2018 |
Q2 | Q1 | Q1 2019 |
Q4 | Q3 2018 |
Q2 | Q1 | Q1 2019 |
Q4 | Q3 2018 |
Q2 | Q1 | Q1 2019 |
Q4 | Q3 2018 |
Q2 | Q1 | |
| € mn | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net interest income1) | 138 | 138 | 134 | 139 | 136 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 135 | 131 | 136 | 133 |
| Loss allowance | 5 | 40 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 14 | 19 | 0 | |||||
| Net commission income1) | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 62 | 51 | 49 | 50 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 53 | 63 | 51 | 51 | 50 |
| Net derecognition gain or loss | 16 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) |
6 | -1 | 0 | -4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 0 | -4 | 3 | |||||||||
| Net gain or loss on hedge | ||||||||||||||||||||
| accounting | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -2 | ||||||||||
| Net gain or loss from | ||||||||||||||||||||
| investments accounted for using | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| the equity method | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Administrative expenses | 87 | 59 | 53 | 55 | 74 | 58 | 61 | 56 | 55 | 55 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 144 | 118 | 107 | 109 | 128 |
| Net other operating income / | 0 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| expenses | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Negative goodwill from | 55 | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||
| acquisitions | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Operating profit | 70 | 116 | 77 | 70 | 75 | -9 | 1 | -7 | -8 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 117 | 70 | 62 | 67 |
| Income taxes | 24 | 22 | 27 | 24 | 26 | -3 | 0 | -3 | -3 | -3 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 23 | |||||
| Consolidated net income | 46 | 94 | 50 | 46 | 49 | -6 | 1 | -4 | -5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 95 | 46 | 41 | 44 |
| Cons. net income attributable to | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |||||
| non-controlling interests | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG |
46 | 94 | 50 | 46 | 49 | -7 | 1 | -5 | -5 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 95 | 45 | 41 | 43 |
1) As of this reporting year, interest on deposits from the housing industry is shown under the net interest income of the Consulting/Services segment (previously included in net commission income).
The previous year's figures were adjusted accordingly

Appendix Commercial real estate finance portfolio




1) Incl. Student housing (UK only)





1) Performing CREF-portfolio only, exposure as at 31.03.2019







1) Incl. Student housing (Australia only)

Appendix Strategic outlook


Actuals Targets

2) 2018 EBIT excl. one offs (reported EBIT € 36 mn)
42
5) Reported and excl. one-offs / negative goodwill, targets before employment of excess capital

| Aareal 2020 as of today |
▪ ▪ adequately |
Aareal 2020 was designed already in 2016 to provide for higher stability, efficiency and flexibility in an increasingly changing environment We have executed – hence our business model today has inherent optionalities enabling us to act |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three areas of particular focus: | ||||||||||
| A | CRE | Fine-tuning of our strategic positioning as a result of (i) sluggish growth and transaction volumes, as well as (ii) regulatory changes |
||||||||
| B | Regulatory capital |
Anticipation and implementation of regulatory changes – coming from a strong basis − Flashlight on future ECB NPL guidelines and IFRS 9 stage 2 sensitivity |
||||||||
| C | Aareon | Where we are today Where we will go How we will achieve |
Strengthening of capital-light / commission income business: European No 1 ERP provider1); sustainable client base; digital products successfully ▪ established Aareon Investor Seminar ▪ Accelerate growth by pushing the digital business further in 2019 ▪ Increased R&D spend for iterative organic development; supported by selective M&A |
|||||||
| 1) | For the institutional housing industry |

Environmental change due to new uncertainties and increasing volatility
| Outlook 2018 (last year) | Outlook 2019 (today) | |
|---|---|---|
| GDP dynamics | Slowdown of growth in key regions | |
| Interest rates | Rather stable interest environment | |
| Funding costs | Secondary trading on higher credit spreads |
|
| Brexit | "One year ahead" | ? "Hard Brexit" as relevant option |
| Italy | ? High political and fiscal uncertainty |
|
| Regulatory requirements (Aareal) |
Basel IV anticipated | TRIM, EBA, NPL-Guidelines anticipated |



▪ Having capabilities to rotate the portfolio composition to geographies and asset classes considered most attractive; managing the new business volumes reflecting regulatory capital and NPL environment.


What is known today: Future implications on capital anticipated…
| Regulation on capital… | …in regulatory figures reflected |
…considered in strategic planning |
|---|---|---|
| Basel IV (estimated) ▪ AIRBA ▪ CRSA |
||
| TRIM-effects (estimated) ▪ Basel III ▪ Basel IV |
||
| Prudential provisioning (NPL-Guideline) ▪ Stock ▪ Future NPL |
(pro rata) (not effective in 2018) |
|
| IFRS 9 | ||
| Strong capital position | Strong capital position but slower (excess) capital growth |




| What: | IFRS 9 Stage 2 maximum shift, LLP dimension depending on rating development |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How: | : Modelling an (unrealistic) theoretical case of 100% 1 loan volume migrating to stage 2 |
|||
| 2 : Additional shift of 1-2 rating classes |
||||
| Impact: | Recognition in P/L | |||
| Dimension: Even in the absolute extreme scenario "only" € 150 – 200 mn additional LLPs would be required, hence all potential macro downturn scenarios digestible by Aareal's strong profit generation capacity |
C
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mid-1) For the institutional housing industry
2) EBIT pre and after impact from new Digital Business
Aareon Pushing digital business to accelerate growth – self-funded from underlying operational growth

2) 20202) 2)
▪ European No. 1 ERP provider building on a stable client base, migration from GES to Wodis Sigma completed
▪ Implementing ERP-near digital solutions to support the housing industry in their digitization strategy
term




| Areas of growth | Revenue growth potential | Expected CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Accelerated growth by pushing Digital Business ▪ Further development of ERP-near digital solutions ▪ Business driven by new technologies (VR, AR, IoT) ▪ Innovation from ventures ▪ SaaS, licence, consulting |
20-25% | |
| ERP Business ▪ Strong and stable client base ▪ Slower but steady growth ▪ Stable margin ▪ SaaS, licence, consulting |
1-2% | |
| Consulting (mainly for Digital and ERP Business) ▪ Extension strictly linked to growth areas ▪ Expand green consulting service and web-based solutions ▪ Continuous focus on profitability |
5% |






We react adequately on environmental changes – hence focus in 2019 will be on
• Safeguarding our backbone SPF →


… preparing to achieve our mid-term ("2020 plus") ≥ 12% RoE target even in a continuously low interest rate environment
We will continue reviewing our strategy and optionalities – and react if and when we deem appropriate


Appendix Dividend policy


We intend to distribute approx. 50% of the earnings per ordinary share (EpS) as base dividend
In addition, we plan to distribute supplementary dividends, started in 2016 with 10% increasing up to 20-30% of the EpS

1) The future dividend policy applies provided that the dividend payments resulting from it are consistent with a long-term and sustained business development of Aareal Bank AG. In addition, the dividend payments are subject to the proviso that corresponding dividend proposals have been made by the Management Board and the Supervisory Board for the respective year.


Appendix SREP



1) SREP-CET1 Requirements incl. buffers (Capital Conservation and Countercyclical)

Appendix AT1: ADI of Aareal Bank AG


| 31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.12. 2016 |
31.12. 2017 |
31.12. 2018 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| € mn | |||||
| Net Retained Profit | 77 | 99 | 122 | 147 | 126 |
| ▪ Net income |
77 | 99 | 122 | 147 | 126 |
| ▪ Profit carried forward from previous year |
- | - | - | - | - |
| ▪ Net income attribution to revenue reserves |
- | - | - | - | - |
| + Other revenue reserves after net income attribution |
715 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 |
| Total dividend potential before amount blocked1) = |
792 | 819 | 842 | 870 | 846 |
| ./. Dividend amount blocked under section 268 (8) |
240 | 287 | 235 | 283 | 268 |
| of the German Commercial Code | |||||
| ./. Dividend amount blocked under section 253 (6) of the German Commercial Code |
- | - | 28 | 35 | 42 |
| = Available Distributable Items1) | 552 | 532 | 579 | 552 | 536 |
| + Increase by aggregated amount of interest expenses relating to Distributions on Tier 1 Instruments1) |
57 | 46 | 46 | 32 | 24 |
| = Amount referred to in the relevant paragraphs of the terms and conditions of the respective Notes as being available to cover Interest Payments on the Notes and Distributions on other Tier 1 Instruments1) |
609 | 578 | 625 | 584 | 560 |
1) Unaudited figures for information purposes only


Appendix Sustainability Performance


2) Basel 3, as at 31.03.2019
3) REF-portfolio includes private client business (€ 0.5 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn), as at 31.03.2019
4) Mortgage Pfandbriefe rated Aaa by Moody's
5) imug classified mortgage Pfandbriefe as recommendable investments with regard to ESG aspects (BBB), without DHB

| Sustainability Ratings – confirming the company's sustainability performance |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI | Aareal Bank Group with "AA Rating" in highest scoring range for all companies assessed relative to global peers reg. Corporate Governance practices [as per 01/2018] |
|||||
| ISS-oekom | Aareal Bank Group holds "prime status", ranking among the leaders in its industry [since 2012] | |||||
| Sustainalytics | Aareal Bank Group was classified as "outperformer", ranking among the best 17% of its industry [as per 02/2017] |
|||||
| CDP | Aareal Bank AG has received a score of B- which is within the Management band. This is equal to the General average of B- and equal to the Europe regional average of B-. [Report 2018] |
|||||
| imug | Aareal Bank was rated "positive BB" in the category "Issuer Performance"; the second best result of all 60 rated Banks [as per 05/2018] |

Appendix Introduction Aareal Bank

Within the C/S segment Aareal is #1 provider of ERP solutions to the German and European institutional housing industry and additionally offering transaction banking services to the German housing market and related industries

| Structured Property Financing | Consulting / Services for the property industry |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International presence and business activities on three continents: Europe, North America, Asia / Pacific |
Market-leading IT systems for the management of residential and commercial properties in Europe |
|||
| Providing commercial real estate financing solutions in more than 20 countries and different property types (hotel, logistic, office, retail, residential, student housing) |
Integrated payment transaction system for the housing industry (market-leading) and the utility sector |
|||
| Additional industry experts in hotels, logistics and retail properties |
More than 10 mn units under management in Europe, thereof ~ 6 mn in the key market Germany |
|||
| portfolio1): ~ € 27 bn Total real estate finance |
International presence: France, the Netherlands, the UK and Scandinavia |
1) REF-portfolio incl. private client business (€ 0.5 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn)


Europe, North America and Asia / Pacific

Aareal Bank Group Structured Property Finance


Aareal Bank Group Consulting / Services





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