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Aareal Bank AG

Investor Presentation Feb 26, 2020

11_ip_2020-02-26_16e78194-b8f0-4e1b-927c-74c6b1032498.pdf

Investor Presentation

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Analyst Conference Preliminary 2019 results

Hermann J. Merkens, CEO - Marc Hess, CFO February 26, 2020

Agenda

  • Highlights 2019
  • Business segment performance
  • Preliminary figures 2019
  • Asset quality
  • Outlook 2020
  • Aareal Next Level
  • Appendix

Highlights 2019 Targets achieved – strategic decisions taken

Aareal Bank Group

Successful business development

Consolidated operating profit of €248 million within the range communicated at the beginning of the year, despite expenditure for accelerated de-risking – all KPIs within their respective target range

Attractive payout

Proposed dividend of € 2.00 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 83% – in line with the dividend policy – and a dividend yield of 7.1%1)

Risks reduced

Accelerated de-risking executed successfully, at reasonable expense – risk exposure to Italy down by one-third in H2 2019, total NPL volume lowered by around 40 per cent since their peak in mid-2019

Convincing strategy

"Aareal Next Level" has set the strategic orientation for the years to come, following successful implementation of "Aareal 2020" – focus on exploring new growth potential and enhanced strategic options

Confident outlook

Overall, Aareal Bank expects to maintain its stable business performance during 2020, despite manifold uncertainty factors and persistent pressure from interest rates and regulation

1) Based on XETRA® closing price 25.02.2020: 28.25€

Highlights 2019: Financial targets

Delivered as promised … despite accelerated de-risking

Prelim
2019
(Orig.) Guidance
02/19
Comment
Operating profit (€ mn) 248 240 -
280
Pre-tax RoE
(%)
8.7 8.5 -
10.0
New business
origination (€ bn)
7.7 7 -
8
CREF newly acquired
business margins (bp)
~195 180 -
190
REF portfolio (€ bn) 26.7 26 -
28
B4 CET1 (%) 13.5 ~12.5
Operating profit
Aareon
(€ mn)
37 35 -
41

Business Segment Performance

Structured Property Financing Highlights 2019

Structured Property Financing

Strong new business origination

  • Total volume at upper end of guided range
  • Despite conservative risk policy ("Quality over Quantity") originally planned margins overachieved

Successful de-risking initiative

  • Meaningful reduction of the total Italian exposure (CREF- and TR-portfolio)
  • Despite additional FY-LLP at reasonable expense for the reduction of the NPL portfolio operating profit within originally guided range

Asset quality further improved

  • Back-book LTV improved
  • BBB exposure within the treasury portfolio significantly reduced

Stable NII

7

Although challenged by an adverse interest rate environment as well as further increased competition

Düsseldorfer Hypothekenbank

Integration of DHB successfully concluded

Capital ratios and funding

  • Solid capital ratios supported by asset quality improvements
  • Funding structure optimised

Structured Property Financing

New business origination in line with target portfolio size

2) 2019-REF-portfolio incl. private client business (€ 0.4 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn) 3) 2018-REF-portfolio incl. private client business (€ 0.6 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.5 bn)

Consulting / Services Highlights 2019

Consulting / Services
Aareon
Group

Steady revenue growth in line with mid-term targets

Increased EBT even incl. strategic investments

CalCon
acquisition:
Successful self-funded M&A activity, further accelerating growth
Investor Seminar1)

Aareon
increased transparency
Deposit
taking
business

Housing industry deposits remained on high level

Increased modelled volumes and maturities resulting from optimised
deposit base structure
to be invested in CREF business, supporting Group NII -
Partly offsetting lower-for-longer

plusForta
acquisition:
Germany's market leading broker of tenant deposit guarantees -
strengthens the digital solution offering

Net commission income up by 25% y-o-y, also reflecting plusForta
acquisition

1) https://www.aareal-bank.com/fileadmin/downloadlist/DAM\_Content/IR/Praesentationen/2019/aareon-investment-seminar-20192805.pdf

Consulting / Services

Aareon: Sales revenue continuously significant above previous year's levels, first strategic investments

P&L C/S Segment 2018 2019 Change
€ mn
Net interest income -12 -16

Thereof Aareon
0 -1 -
Loss allowance -1 0

Thereof Aareon
-1 0 -
Net commission income 212 227

Thereof Aareon
197 208 6%

Sales revenue
237 252 6%

Material
costs
40 44 10%
Admin expenses 227 242

Thereof Aareon
165 173 5%
Net other op. income 4 3

Thereof Aareon
3 4 33%
Operating profit (EBT) -22 -28

Thereof Aareon
36 37 3%

▪ Aareon

  • Sales revenue +6% to € 252 mn (2018: € 237 mn)
  • Increase from growth in all product lines: ERP +3%, digital +20%
  • Strategic investments (€ 3 mn in H2) started as announced at the Aareon Investor Seminar1)
  • EBT (before strategic investments) up by +11% to € 40 mn (2018: € 36 mn)
  • Housing industry deposits remain on high level (Ø Q4 2019: € 10.9 bn)

Aareon Group

1) https://www.aareal-bank.com/fileadmin/downloadlist/DAM\_Content/IR/Praesentationen/2019/aareon-investment-seminar-20192805.pdf

2) Before strategic investments (€ -3 mn)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Preliminary Figures 2019

Preliminary results 2019

Solid, especially in the light of accelerated de-risking and concluded DHB integration

€ mn Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 FY '18 FY '19 2019-Comments
Net interest income 135 135 134 134 130 535 533 Stable although challenged by an
adverse interest rate environment as
well as further increased competition
Derecognition result 8 16 11 15 22 24 64 Reflects TR-portfolio adjustments
Loss allowance 39 5 23 27 35 72 90 Incl. accelerated de-risking
Net commission income 63 53 57 54 65 215 229 Aareon
on track
FV-
/ hedge-result
-1 6 -7 2 -4 -4 -3 € -22 mn
from NPLs
Admin expenses 118 144 112 114 118 462 488 Reversals of provisions (€ 5 mn
vs.
€ 19 mn
in 2018), DHB transformation
(€ 11 mn), Aareon
growth (€ 8 mn)
Others 14 0 1 0 2 25 3
EBT pre neg. goodwill 62 61 61 64 62 261 248 Solid results
Negative goodwill DHB 55 55 2018: Acquisition of
Düsseldorfer
Hypothekenbank
AG
Operating profit (EBT) 117 61 61 64 62 316 248
Income taxes 22 21 20 24 20 90 85 34% FY-tax ratio
Minorities / AT1 4 5 4 5 4 18 18
Consolidated net income
allocated to ord. shareholders
91 35 37 35 38 208 145
Earnings per share (€) 1.51 0.59 0.61 0.60 0.62 3.48 2.42

Capital

Solid capital ratios already incl. TRIM effects & prudential provisioning… but a decade of regulatory changes to be continued

  • B3 capital ratios significantly above SREP requirements
  • Fulfilling B4 from day 1
  • Solid capital ratios supported by asset quality improvements (mainly from accelerated de-risking)
  • T1-Leverage ratio: 6.3%
  • Remaining regulatory uncertainties (models, ICAAP, ILAAP, B4 etc.): modelled RWA's may further inflate

1) Underlying RWA estimate, given a 72.5 % output floor based on the final Basel Committee framework dated 7 December 2017, calculation subject to outstanding EU implementation as well as the implementation of further regulatory requirements

13 2) When calculating own funds, annual profits were taken into account, based on the Management Board's proposal for appropriation of profits for the 2019 financial year. The appropriation of profits is subject to approval by the Annual General Meeting. The expected

relevant impact of the TRIM exercise on commercial property financings, and of the SREP recommendations concerning ECB's NPL guidelines (NPL stock), were taken into account for determining regulatory indicators for 2019.

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

B/S structure according to IFRS As at 31.12.2019: € 41.1 bn (31.12.2018: € 42.7 bn)

  • Treasury Portfolio: Increase of € 1.7 bn3) in 2018 due to the acquisition of DHB completely reversed and hereinafter overall portfolio structure optimised
  • CREF-portfolio temporary down due to syndication activities and accelerated de-risking; resulting in a short-time increase of Money Market assets
  • Stable housing industry deposits
  • More efficient use of deposits allows for reduced Pfandbrief (PB)- and senior unsecured (SU) funding

  • 1) CREF-portfolio only, private client business (€ 0.4 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn) not included

  • 2) Other assets includes € 0.4 bn private client portfolio and WIB's € 0.4 bn public sector loans

3) € 1.4 bn nominal value

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Funding Diversified funding position

  • Sustainable and strong housing industry deposit base counts for more than 30% of well diversified funding mix
  • Successful issuances of EUR 2.9 bn incl.
    • EUR 750 mn Pfandbrief, 5 years
    • EUR 500 mn Pfandbrief, 8 years
    • USD 600 mn Pfandbrief, 2 years
    • EUR 500 mn Senior Preferred Benchmark, 5 years
  • MREL significantly over fulfilled
  • NSFR/ LCR well above 100% due to comfortable liquidity position

Asset Quality

Commercial real estate finance portfolio (CREF) € 25.9 bn highly diversified and sound

1) Incl. Student housing (UK & Australia only)

Commercial real estate finance portfolio (CREF)

LTV levelling out due to active portfolio management and acc. de-risking

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Accelerated de-risking 40% NPL reduction achieved in H2

Non performing loans, H1 2019 – H2 2019

Accelerated de-risking

  • Program with focus on Italian portfolio, continued in Q4 with Italian credit risk further down by approx. € 0.6 bn (thereof € 0.3 bn NPL, € 0.3 bn single borrower risk)
  • Total effect from accelerated de-risking of approx. € 1.2 bn1) Italian credit risk in 2019
  • P&L burden 2019 of approx. € 50 mn (€ ~15 mn in Q4)

NPL reduction

  • In H2 2019 total NPL volume down by approx. 40%
  • Italian NPL also down by approx. 40% in 2019 (incl. a foreclosed Italian asset of approx. € 90 mn taken on own book for future development, not part of acc. de-risking)

1) thereof € 350 mn NPL (in FY 2019, of which € 310 mn in H2 2019), € 350 mn single borrower risk, € 410 mn BTPs, € 80 mn NPL provisioned for future reduction

Spotlight: Italy CREF portfolio down from € 2.8 bn to € 1.9 bn

1) Performing CREF-portfolio only, exposure as at 31.12.2019

Comments (vs. 2018)

Accelerated de-risking led to substantial improvements

  • Portfolio down by 30% down to € 1.9 bn, thereof NPL reduction of € 0.5 bn to € 0.6 bn
  • Significant LTV improvement from 68% to 57%
  • Performing residential nearly completely reduced
  • YoD increased from 7.9% to 8.3% (Q3 2019: 7.6%)

Defaulted exposure Significant reduction of NPL portfolio

Defaulted exposure Defaulted exposure / Total CREF portfolio

Defaulted exposure by country (vs. 2018)

  • Meaningful NPL reduction (by ~40% from € 1.9 bn mid 2019 to € 1.1 bn) by accelerated de-risking
  • As already indicated four UK-shopping centers (formerly on watch) became non-performing in 2019
  • Further accelerated de-risking opportunities will be assessed if they emerge

Treasury portfolio € 7.3 bn (2018: € 8.7 bn) of high quality and highly liquid assets

  • Increase of € 1.4 bn2) in 2018 due to the acquisition of DHB completely reversed and hereinafter overall portfolio structure optimised
  • Accelerated de-risking by significant reducing BBB exposure (e.g. BTP down by ~40%)
  • Reinvestments in highly liquid AAA / AA assets

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

2) € 1.7 bn book value

Outlook 2020

Outlook 2020: Environment

New uncertainties, continued low interest rates and increasing volatility

Outlook 2018 (February 2018) Outlook 2019 (February 2019) Current environment
GDP dynamics Slowdown of growth in key
regions
Continued slowdown of
growth in key regions
(additional virus impact?)
Interest rates Rather stable interest rate
environment
Lower for longer interest
rate environment
Funding costs Secondary trading on
higher credit spreads
Credit spread tightening
on secondary trading
Brexit "One year ahead" ? "Hard Brexit"
as relevant option
? "Brexit":
what does that mean
Italy ? High political and fiscal
uncertainty
? High political and
fiscal uncertainty
Regulatory
requirements
(Aareal Bank)
Basel IV anticipated TRIM, NPL guidelines anticipated ? ICAAP to become
new constraint for
European banks
EBA guideline
on
internal models
Tech-/Software
Sector
Catch up of the European real estate industry compared to the US to be continued
Still pockets of share of wallet growth by penetration and process optimisation
Valuations on record highs (growth dynamic and low interest rate environment as drivers)

Outlook 2020: Stable in an adverse environment Establishing a new reporting of three segments starting Q1/2020

METRIC 2019 OUTLOOK 2020

NII + NCI

€ 762 mn

Stable, increasing Aareon
contribution

LLP (net)
€ 90 mn1)

Down to slightly below avg. risk costs of 30 bp (effects from
potential further acc. de-risking opportunities not included)
p
u
o
Gr

Admin Expenses

€ 488 mn

Slight increase, Aareon
growth overcompensating
reduction in Bank

Operating Profit

€ 248 mn

Stable on previous year's level (effects from potential further
accelerated de-risking opportunities not included)

Net income attributable to
ordinary shareholders

€ 145 mn

Stable on previous year's level (including effects from
potential further accelerated de-risking opportunities)
s
nt
e
m
g
e
S
"NEXT LEVEL" METRIC 2019 OUTLOOK 2020
F
P
S
"Activate" Structured
Property Financing

Portfolio size

New business2)

€ 26.7 bn

€ 7.7 bn

€ 26 bn -
€ 28 bn

€ 7 bn -
€ 8 bn
S "Elevate" Consulting /
Services (Bank)

Deposit volume

NCI

€ 10.7 bn

€ 23 mn

€ 10 bn -
€ 11 bn

approx. +15%
C/ "Accelerate"
Aareon

Revenues
Adj. EBITDA3)

€ 252 mn

€ 64 mn

€ 272 mn
-
€ 276 mn

€ 68 mn
-
€ 71 mn

1) Additional € 22 mn from NPLs booked in fvpl line

2) Incl. renewals

3) excl. strategic investments, after segment adjustment

Aareal Next Level KPIs and targets

Aareal Next Level

Three strategic pillars, as presented in January 2020

Aareal Next Level Aareon: Our value creation levers

  • Aareon organic growth plan as presented in May 2019 well on track
  • New classification of Aareon as industrial holding allows additional M&A activities – on our own and / or including partner(s)
  • 1) TAM and RPU figures rough company estimations, describing the expected entire future market potential

Aareal Next Level Our KPIs and targets

2019 Stabilisation and
investment phase
(2020 -
2022)
Reaping the
rewards phase
(Mid-term)
Revenues Group1) € 762 mn Low single digit growth
(CAGR)

o/w Aareon
7 - 9% CAGR revenues // 22 - 25% CAGR digital revenues
Adj. EBITDA Aareon2) € 64 mn € >110 mn
EBITDA from M&A on top
Capitalisation ~12.5% B4 CET1 ratio
Pre tax RoE 8.7% Stable
(through investment phase)
12%
(more supportive environment)
Dividend policy 50% base dividend plus 20-30% supplementary dividend
  • Further development and investments into three strong business propositions
  • Shift in earnings and value contribution towards capital light and digital business

1) Revenues Group = NII + NCI

29 2) 2019 + stabilisation and investment phase excl. strategic investments; Reaping the rewards phase incl. strategic investments

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Aareal Next Level

Three main contributors to achieve a 12% pre tax RoE (mid-term)

Summary Aareal Next Level

Highlights

We have clear visions of how to develop further our individual business activities in order to strengthen their respective independent profiles

Regardless of the continuous adverse environment and due to our confidence in the consistency of our strategic measures, we feel comfortable with confirming our highly attractive dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50% base plus 20-30% supplementary dividend

By investing in our businesses, we will significantly increase profitability and further enhance strategic optionalities. In a more supportive environment we aim a 12% pre tax RoE

Key Takeways

Key takeaways

Stable development We are in a robust condition and continue to focus on stability.

Convincing strategy We explore new potential and enhanced strategic options.

Clear commitment We create sustainable value for all of our stakeholders - today and in the future!

Appendix Group Results

Aareal Bank Group Results 2019

01.01.-
31.12.2019
01.01.-
31.12.2018
Change
€ mn € mn
Profit and loss account
Net interest income 533 535 0%
Loss allowance 90 72 25%
Net commission income 229 215 7%
Net derecognition gain or loss 64 24 167%
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) 1 -2 -150%
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting -4 -2 100%
Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method 1 -
Administrative expenses 488 462 6%
Net other operating income / expenses 2 25 -92%
Negative goodwill from acquisitions - 55
Operating Profit 248 316 -22%
Income taxes 85 90 -6%
Consolidated net income 163 226 -28%
Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests 2 2
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG 161 224 -28%
Earnings per share (EpS)
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) 161 224 -28%
of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders 145 208 -30%
of which: allocated to AT1 investors 16 16
Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) 2.42 3.48 -30%
Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) 0.16 0.16

1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.

2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.

3) Earnings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.

Aareal Bank Group Results 2019 by segments

Financing Structured
Property
Consulting /
Services
Consolidation/
Reconciliation
Aareal Bank
Group
01.01.-
31.12.
2019
01.01-
31.12.
2018
01.01.-
31.12.
2019
01.01-
31.12.
2018
01.01.-
31.12.
2019
01.01-
31.12.
2018
01.01.-
31.12.
2019
01.01-
31.12.
2018
€ mn
Net interest income1) 549 547 -16 -12 0 0 533 535
Loss allowance 90 73 0 -
1
90 72
Net commission income1) 10 9 227 212 -
8
-
6
229 215
Net derecognition gain or loss 64 24 64 24
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) 1 -
2
0 0 1 -
2
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting -
4
-
2
-
4
-
2
Net gain or loss from investments
accounted for using the equity method
1 0 0 1 0
Administrative expenses 254 241 242 227 -
8
-
6
488 462
Net other operating income / expenses -
1
21 3 4 0 0 2 25
Negative goodwill from acquisitions 55 55
Operating profit 276 338 -28 -22 0 0 248 316
Income taxes 95 99 -10 -
9
85 90
Consolidated net income 181 239 -18 -13 0 0 163 226
Allocation of results
Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling interests 0 0 2 2 2 2
Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank 181 239 -20 -15 0 0 161 224

1) As of this reporting year, interest on deposits from the housing industry is shown under the net interest income of the Consulting/Services segment (previously included in net commission income).

The previous year's figures were adjusted accordingly

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Aareal Bank Group Results – quarter by quarter

Structured Property
Financing
Consulting / Services Consolidation /
Reconciliation
Aareal Bank Group
Q4 Q3
2019
Q2 Q1 Q4
2018
Q4 Q3
2019
Q2 Q1 Q4
2018
Q4 Q3
2019
Q2 Q1 Q4
2018
Q4 Q3
2019
Q2 Q1 Q4
2018
€ mn
Net interest income1) 135 138 138 138 138 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 130 134 134 135 135
Loss allowance 35 27 23 5 40 0 0 0 0 -1 35 27 23 5 39
Net commission income1) 4 2 2 2 3 64 54 57 52 62 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 65 54 57 53 63
Net derecognition gain or loss 22 15 11 16 8 22 15 11 16 8
Net gain or loss from financial
instruments (fvpl)
-4 5 -6 6 -1 0 0 -4 5 -6 6 -1
Net gain or loss on hedge
accounting
0 -3 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 0
Net gain or loss from
investments accounted for using 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
the equity method
Administrative expenses 59 55 53 87 59 62 61 61 58 61 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 118 114 112 144 118
Net other operating income /
expenses
-1 -1 1 0 12 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 14
Negative goodwill from
acquisitions
55 55
Operating profit 63 74 69 70 116 -1 -10 -8 -9 1 0 0 0 0 0 62 64 61 61 117
Income taxes 21 27 23 24 22 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 20 24 20 21 22
Consolidated net income 42 47 46 46 94 0 -7 -5 -6 1 0 0 0 0 0 42 40 41 40 95
Cons. net income attributable to
non-controlling interests
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
Cons. net income attributable to
shareholders of Aareal Bank AG
42 47 46 46 94 0 -8 -5 -7 1 0 0 0 0 0 42 39 41 39 95

1) As of this reporting year, interest on deposits from the housing industry is shown under the net interest income of the Consulting/Services segment (previously included in net commission income).

The previous year's figures were adjusted accordingly

Aareal Bank Group Results Q4 2019

01.10.-
31.21.2019
01.10.-
31.12.2018
Change
€ mn € mn
Profit and loss account
Net interest income 130 135 -4%
Loss allowance 35 39 -10%
Net commission income 65 63 3%
Net derecognition gain or loss 22 8 175%
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) -
4
-
1
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting 0 0
Net gain or loss from investments accounted for using the equity method 1 0
Administrative expenses 118 118 0%
Net other operating income / expenses 1 14 -93%
Negative goodwill from acquisitions 0 55
Operating Profit 62 117 -47%
Income taxes 20 22 -9%
Consolidated net income 42 95 -56%
Consolidated net income attributable to non-controlling interests 0 0
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG 42 95 -56%
Earnings per share (EpS)
Consolidated net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank AG1) 42 95 -56%
of which: allocated to ordinary shareholders 38 91 -58%
of which: allocated to AT1 investors 4 4
Earnings per ordinary share (in €)2) 0.62 1.51 -59%
Earnings per ordinary AT1 unit (in €)3) 0.04 0.04

1) The allocation of earnings is based on the assumption that net interest payable on the AT1 bond is recognised on an accrual basis.

2) Earnings per ordinary share are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to ordinary shareholders of Aareal Bank AG by the weighted average of ordinary shares outstanding during the financial year (59,857,221 shares). Basic earnings per ordinary share correspond to diluted earnings per ordinary share.

3) Earnings per AT1 unit (based on 100,000,000 AT1 units with a notional amount of 3 € each) are determined by dividing the earnings allocated to AT1 investors by the weighted average of AT1 units outstanding during the financial year. Earnings per AT1 unit (basic) correspond to (diluted) earnings per AT1 unit.

Aareal Bank Group Results Q4 2019 by segments

Financing Structured
Property
Consulting /
Services
Consolidation/
Reconciliation
Aareal Bank
Group
01.10.-
31.12.
2019
01.10-
31.12.
2018
01.10.-
31.12.
2019
01.10-
31.12.
2018
01.10.-
31.12.
2019
01.10-
31.12.
2018
01.10.-
31.12.
2019
01.10-
31.12.
2018
€ mn
Net interest income1) 135 138 -
5
-
3
130 135
Loss allowance 35 40 0 -
1
95 39
Net commission income1) 4 3 64 62 -
3
-
2
65 63
Net derecognition gain or loss 22 8 22 8
Net gain or loss from financial instruments (fvpl) -
4
-
1
0 -
4
-
1
Net gain or loss on hedge accounting 0 0 0 0
Net gain or loss from investments
accounted for using the equity method 1 0 1
Administrative expenses 59 59 62 61 -
3
-
2
118 118
Net other operating income / expenses -
1
12 2 2 0 0 1 14
Negative goodwill from acquisitions 55 55
Operating profit 63 116 -
1
1 0 0 62 117
Income taxes 21 22 -
1
0 20 22
Consolidated net income 42 94 0 1 0 0 42 95
Allocation of results
Cons. net income attributable to non-controlling interests 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cons. net income attributable to shareholders of Aareal Bank 42 94 0 1 0 0 42 95

1) As of this reporting year, interest on deposits from the housing industry is shown under the net interest income of the Consulting/Services segment (previously included in net commission income).

The previous year's figures were adjusted accordingly

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Appendix Preliminary Group Results 2019 in detail

Net interest income (NII) / Derecognition result (DR)

Stable although challenged by an adverse interest rate environment as well as further increased competition

  • Q1 incl.
    • € 4 mn effects from early repayments
    • € 12 mn from treasury portfolio adjustments
  • Q2 incl.
    • € 11 mn effects from early repayments
  • Q3 incl.
    • € 5 mn from early repayments
    • € 10 mn from treasury portfolio adjustments
  • Q4 incl.
    • € 12 mn effects from early repayments
    • € 10 mn from treasury portfolio adjustments

Net interest income Derecognition result

Loss allowance (LLP) Includes effects from accelerated de-risking

  • FY-LLP of ~€ 50 mn for accelerated de-risking
  • Original LLP-guidance of € 50 mn € 80 mn adjusted to € 80 mn - € 110 mn in Q3 2019 due to accelerated de-risking initiative with meaningful NPL reduction
    • Focus on Italian portfolio
    • Accelerated reduction of selected, individual NPLs
    • Moving away from pure "collateral collection"
    • Reduction of larger single borrower risks
    • Adjustment of Italian Government bond portfolio (completed, effects on DR and NII)
  • Additional € 22 mn from NPLs booked in fvpl-line

Net commission income

Continuously significant above previous year's levels

Aareon

  • Q1 sales revenues of € 59 mn (Q1 2018: € 55 mn)
  • Q2 sales revenue of € 63 mn (Q2 2018: € 57 mn)
  • Q3 sales revenue +7% to € 60 mn (Q3 2018: € 56 mn)
  • Q4 regularly includes positive seasonal effects sales revenues of € 70 mn (Q4 2018: € 69 mn)

Admin expenses Stable development, Q1 incl. seasonal effects

FY-admin expenses of € 488 mn incl.

  • € 17 mn transformation cost (vs. FY 2018 of € 19 mn)
  • € 11 mn DHB integration cost
  • € 8 mn Aareon growth
  • € 5 mn reversal of provisions (vs. FY 2018 of € 19 mn)

Appendix Commercial Real Estate Finance Portfolio

Development commercial real estate finance portfolio By region

Development commercial real estate finance portfolio By property type

Western Europe (ex Germany) CREF portfolio Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 9.1 bn

2) Performing CREF-portfolio only, exposure as at 31.12.2019

1) Incl. Student housing (UK only)

Spotlight: UK CREF portfolio € 4.1 bn (~16% of total CREF-portfolio)

Comments (vs. 2018)

  • Cap-rates already reacted on subdued economic outlook. Entire portfolio revalued on that basis in 2019
  • Performing:
    • Investment finance only, no developments
    • ~ 60% of total portfolio in Greater London area, emphasising on hotels
    • € 142 mn with LTV > 60%
    • Theoretical stress on property values (-20%): would lead to portfolio LTV of approx. 74%
  • Defaulted exposure: € 182 mn (€ 0 mn)

Southern Europe CREF portfolio Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 3.2 bn

German CREF portfolio Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 3.1 bn

1) Performing CREF-portfolio only, exposure as at 31.12.2019

Northern Europe CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 1.2 bn

1) Performing CREF-portfolio only, exposure as at 31.12.2019

Eastern Europe CREF portfolio

Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 0.8 bn

North America CREF portfolio Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 7.8 bn

Asia / Pacific CREF portfolio Total volume outstanding as at 31.12.2019: € 0.7 bn

Appendix Aareal Next Level

Aareal Next Level

Consulting / Services (Bank) - More transparency and additional opportunities

Additional opportunities…

  • … sustained growth of NCI: +13% CAGR planned from 2019 to 2022
  • … option on increasing NII if rates rise >0%
  • … diversification of funding mix, well recognized by rating agencies
  • … cross selling between Aareal and Aareon

1) Pro forma: current division C/S ex. Aareon

Aareal Next Level Our Dividend Policy – Confirmed despite significant regulatory burdens

▫ Nor attractive investment opportunities neither positive growth environment

32 37 44 47 49 52 53 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 €

Attractive dividend policy and significant book value growth creating sustainable value for Aareal and hence our shareholders

Appendix Regulation

SREP (CET 1) requirements

Demonstrating conservative and sustainable business model

1) SREP-CET1 Requirements incl. buffers (Capital Conservation and Countercyclical)

  • (Overall Capital Requirement (OCR) incl. buffers) amounts to 12.9%
  • As of 31. December 2019 total capital ratio amounts to 29.9% and includes TRIM effects as well as prudential provisioning

Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Economic ICAAP the next focus on the regulatory agenda – our reading and take away

1

Normative internal perspective

  • Medium-term projections for at least three years:
  • − Ensure the ongoing fulfillment of OCR plus P2G in the baseline, and TSCR in adverse scenarios
  • − Takes into account all material risks (not limited to Pillar 1 risks)
  • − Considers upcoming changes in the legal / regulatory / accounting framework
  • Adequate and consistent internal methods to quantifying impacts on Pillar 1 ratios
  • Additional management buffers determined by the institutions
  • Risks that may cause economic losses are covered by internal
  • Capital adequacy concept based on economic value considerations (e.g. net present value approach)
  • Internal definition of capital
  • Point-in-time risk qualification of the current situation feeding into medium-term assessment covering future developments
  • Adequate and consistent internal risk quantification methods
  • Internal indicators, thresholds and management buffers.

Economic ICAAP on SSM priority list 2020

  • Ongoing discussions regarding interpretation of requirements
  • Different methods currently used throughout Europe to estimate future volatility (scenario based vs. VAR models)
  • ICAAP Guidelines published end of 2018 are very conservative regarding holding period and confidential interval
  • ECB aims for future harmonization (equal to TRIM?) and potential tightening

AT1 with normative triggers will no longer be eligible under Economic ICAAP: 2

Regulatory capital ratios: Future treatment appears to be more generous, although decisions will be taken on a case by case basis

▪ P2R could be partly covered by AT1 (and/or T2)

Economic ICAAP: Future requirements will be tightened

  • AT1 with normative triggers not accountable any more (see ECB feedback statement; question 208)
  • Interim grandfathering of existing AT1 (issued, cut off date?) not decided yet, but unlikely from our point of view
  • AT1 in the economic ICAAP, currently and presumably in future no alternative instruments (beside CET1) available to fulfil ECB requirements (economic triggers instead of normative)

Economic ICAAP to become the new capital constraint for European banks?

1) Different risk categories regarding regulatory capital ratios and economic ICAAP

Regulatory capital What may come: future NPL regulatory provisioning

by Aareal's strong profit generation capacity

Appendix AT1: ADI of Aareal Bank AG

Interest payments and ADI of Aareal Bank AG

Available Distributable Items (as of end of the relevant year)

€ mn 31.12.
2015
31.12.
2016
31.12.
2017
31.12.
2018
31.12.
2019
Net Retained Profit

Net income

Profit carried forward from previous year

Net income attribution to revenue reserves
99
99
-
-
122
122
-
-
147
147
-
-
126
126
-
-
120
120
-
-
+
Other revenue reserves after net income attribution
720 720 720 720 720
=
Total dividend potential before amount blocked1)
819 842 870 846 840
./.
Dividend amount blocked under section 268 (8)
of the German Commercial Code
./.
Dividend amount blocked under section 253 (6)
of the German Commercial Code
287
-
235
28
283
35
268
42
314
40
= Available Distributable Items1) 532 579 552 536 486
+
Increase by aggregated amount of interest expenses relating to
Distributions on Tier 1 Instruments1)
46 46 32 24 23
=
Amount referred to in the relevant paragraphs of the terms and
conditions of the respective Notes as being available to cover Interest
Payments on the Notes and Distributions on other Tier 1 Instruments1)
578 625 584 560 509

1) Unaudited figures for information purposes only

Appendix Sustainability Performance

Aareal Bank Group Stands for solidity, reliability and predictability

1) Pre-tax RoE of 8.7% as at 31.12.2019

2) Basel 3, as at 31.12.2019

66

3) REF-portfolio includes private client business (€ 0.4 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn), as at 31.12.2019

4) Mortgage Pfandbriefe rated Aaa by Moody's 5) imug classified mortgage Pfandbriefe as recommendable investments with regard to ESG aspects (BBB), without DHB Note: All 2019 figures preliminary and unaudited

Doing business sustainably.

Above average ESG-Ratings confirm the company's performance

Environmental financing criteria within property valuation

(e.g. asbestos, energy efficiency, etc.)

Transparency initiatives on portfolio level

(e.g. Climate VaR for new business 2018 looking at extreme weather events, future policy risk costs and 2°C-compatibility; additional CMS-fields for energy efficiency, green building labels)

Set-up of ESG-opportunity & risk management

(e.g. we currently work on an Aareal-Green Building Definition (by Q2 2020) and climate reporting (TCFD1))

  • Strong economic performance (e.g. contribution to the stability of the property banking sector/financial markets and to restoring trust in the banking industry)
  • Contribution to affordable housing (e.g. with our software solution clients benefit from time, cost and efficiency savings)
  • Failsafe information security (e.g. we undergo voluntary external audits and certification processes)

Environment Social Governance

  • Transparent reporting on remuneration model / details
  • High quality ESG-disclosure (e.g. based on Global Reporting Initiative2) (GRI), assured by PwC, anticipating regulatory developments (ICAAP), ESG- facts incorporated in analyst presentation)
  • Structure, composition and diversity of governing bodies

(Supervisory Board established five committees in order to perform its supervisory duties in an efficient manner)

Governance Roadshow

  • Environmental disclosure (e.g. Aareal's ecological footprint,
    • environmental KPIs (datasheet on website), CDP reporting, etc.)
  • Expansion of green electricity (88% of total electricity consumption as of 12/2018)
  • CO2 compensation (parts of business travel, print materials)
  • Fair, performance-oriented remuneration schemes
  • Employee surveys
  • Management of social matters (e.g. Code of Conduct for employees, Code of Conduct for business partners, Human Rights policy, Diversity Charta, etc.)
  • CEO-responsibility for ESG matters ("tone from the top")
  • ESG-targets for Management Board
  • Sustainability matters regularly discussed in Board Meetings
  • Groupwide Sustainability Committee established in 2012

1) TCFD: Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures

2) GRI: Aareal reports material ESG information according to the broader stakeholder focused GRI standard, the other complementary leading sustainability reporting standard besides SASB

67

on corporate level

within core business

Sustainability data Extends the financial depiction of the Group

Key takeaways at a glance

Transparent Reporting – facilitating informed investment decisions

  • "COMBINED SEPARATE NON-FINANCIAL REPORT 2018 FOR AAREAL BANK AG" and SUSTAINABILITY REPORT 2018 "SETTING MILESTONES. CREATING PROSPECTS." have been published on March 28, 2019
  • PwC performed a limited assurance review

Sustainability Ratings – confirming the company's sustainability performance

MSCI Aareal Bank Group with "AA Rating" in highest scoring range for all companies assessed
relative to global peers
reg. Corporate Governance practices [as per 06/2019]
ISS-ESG Aareal Bank Group holds "prime status" and ranks with a C+ rating among the top 15% within
the 'Financials/Mortgage & Public Sector Finance' category
[since 2012, re-confirmed 08/2019]
Sustainalytics Aareal
Bank AG is with a score of 22.9 at medium risk of experiencing material financial impacts
from ESG factors, rank 116 out of 934 rated banks (13th
Percentile). [as per 12/2019]
CDP Bank AG received a C which is in the Awareness band1). This is same as the Europe
Aareal
regional average of C, and same as the Financial services sector average of C. [Report 2019]
imug Aareal
Bank was rated "positive B" in the category "Issuer Performance"; rank 6 out of 43 rated
banks [as per 07/2019]

1) Downgrade due to average consideration of ESG aspects in governance and corporate processes.

Appendix Introduction Aareal Bank

Aareal Bank Group

Key messages

  • Aareal is a leading finance and service provider to international property markets offering tailor-made products to a stable customer base within its two pillar business model focusing on
    • Structured Property Financing (SPF): Aareal provides low-risk commercial real estate financing solutions focusing on different property types in Europe, North-America and Asia/Pacific
    • Consulting/Services (C/S):

Within the C/S segment Aareal is #1 provider of ERP solutions to the German and European institutional housing industry and additionally offering transaction banking services to the German housing market and related industries

  • Aareal's balance sheet has a sound structure with a high quality and a well diversified credit portfolio, a stable deposit base and a sustainable long-term refinancing mix as well as a solid capital base
  • Aareal is an independent publicly listed (MDAX) mid-sized company with high flexibility and adaptability
  • The Aareal business model provides stable revenues and a risk management with a positive track record even under in an adverse market environment

Aareal Bank Group One Bank – two segments

Structured Property Financing Consulting / Services
for the property industry
International presence and business activities on three
continents: Europe, North America, Asia / Pacific
Market-leading IT systems for the management of
residential and commercial properties in Europe
Providing commercial real estate financing solutions in
more than 20 countries and different property types
(hotel, logistic, office, retail, residential, student housing)
Integrated payment transaction system for
the housing industry (market-leading) and
the utility sector
Additional industry experts in
hotels, logistics and retail properties
More than 10 mn
units under management in Europe,
thereof ~ 6 mn
in the key market Germany
portfolio1): ~ € 27 bn
Total real estate
finance
International presence:
France, the Netherlands, the UK and Scandinavia

1) REF-portfolio incl. private client business (€ 0.4 bn) and WIB's public sector loans (€ 0.4 bn)

Aareal Bank Group One Bank – two segments – three continents

International property financing in more than 20 countries – Europe, North America and Asia / Pacific

Structured Property Finance Specialist for specialists

Aareal Bank Group Structured Property Finance

  • Cash-flow driven collateralised business
    • Focus on senior lending
    • Based on first-ranking mortgage loans
  • Typical products, e.g.:
    • Single asset investment finance
    • Portfolio finance (local or cross-border /-currency)
    • Value add-finance
  • In-depth know-how in local markets and special properties
    • Local expertise at our locations
    • Additional industry expertise (head offices)
  • International experience with employees from more than 30 nations

Consulting / Services

High customer overlap with substantial cross-selling effects

Aareon Group: IT Services

  • Market-leading European IT-system house for the (ERP based) management of residential and commercial property portfolios
  • ~ 60% market share in German key market with ~6 mn units under management
  • Comprehensive range of integrated services and consulting

Aareal Bank: Transaction Banking

  • Market-leading integrated payment transaction systems for the housing industry
  • Key clients: large size property owners / managers and utility companies
  • ~100 mn transactions p.a. (volume: ~€ 50 bn)
  • Ø deposit volume of € 10.7 bn in 2019

Definitions and contacts

Definitions

  • New Business = Newly acquired business + renewals
  • Common Equity Tier 1 ratio = CET1 Risk weighted assets
  • Pre tax RoE = Operating profit ./. income/loss attributable to non-controlling interests ./. AT1 cupon Average IFRS equity excl. non-controlling interests, other reserves, AT1 and dividends
  • CIR = Admin expenses Net income
  • Net income = net interest income + net commission income + net result on hedge accounting + net trading income + results from non-trading assets + results from investments accounted for at equity + results from investment properties + net other operating income
  • Net stable funding ratio = Available stable funding Required stable funding
  • Liquidity coverage ratio = Total stock of high quality liquid assets Net cash outflows under stress
  • Earnings per share = operating profit ./. income taxes ./. income/loss attributable to non controlling interests ./. net AT1 cupon Number of ordinary shares
  • Yield on Debt = Net operating income (NOI) x 100 Current commitment incl. prior / pari-passu loans
  • CREF-portfolio = Commercial real estate finance portfolio excl. private client business and WIB's public sector loans
  • REF-portfolio = Real estate finance portfolio incl. private client business and WIB's public sector loans

Contacts

  • Jürgen Junginger Managing Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 2636 [email protected]
  • Sebastian Götzken Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3337 [email protected]
  • Carsten Schäfer Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3616 [email protected]
  • Karin Desczka Manager Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3009 [email protected]
  • Julia Taeschner Group Sustainability Officer Director Investor Relations Phone: +49 611 348 3424 [email protected]
  • Daniela Thyssen Manager Sustainability Management Phone: +49 611 348 3554 [email protected]

Disclaimer

© 2020 Aareal Bank AG. All rights reserved.

  • This document has been prepared by Aareal Bank AG, exclusively for the purposes of a corporate presentation by Aareal Bank AG. The presentation is intended for professional and institutional customers only.
  • It must not be modified or disclosed to third parties without the explicit permission of Aareal Bank AG. Any persons who may come into possession of this information and these documents must inform themselves of the relevant legal provisions applicable to the receipt and disclosure of such information, and must comply with such provisions. This presentation may not be distributed in or into any jurisdiction where such distribution would be restricted by law.
  • This presentation is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to enter into a contract on the provision of advisory services or an offer to purchase securities. Aareal Bank AG has merely compiled the information on which this document is based from sources considered to be reliable – without, however, having verified it. The securities of Aareal Bank AG are not registered in the United States of America and may not be offered or sold except under an exemption from, or pursuant to, registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Therefore, Aareal Bank AG does not give any warranty, and makes no representation as to the completeness or correctness of any information or opinion contained herein. Aareal Bank AG accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this presentation. The securities of Aareal Bank AG are not registered in the United States of America and may not be offered or sold except under an exemption from, or pursuant to, registration under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
  • This presentation may contain forward-looking statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements or trend information that are based on current plans, views and/or assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, most of them being difficult to predict and generally beyond Aareal Bank AG´s control. This could lead to material differences between the actual future results, performance and / or events and those expressed or implied by such statements.
  • Aareal Bank AG assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or any other information contained herein.

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