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Axactor SE

Investor Presentation Jul 23, 2020

3549_rns_2020-07-23_09e18dda-91d8-4047-813d-42bed7deb2e0.pdf

Investor Presentation

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23 July, 2020

April and May significantly impacted by Covid-19, strong pick-up in June expected to continue

Gross revenue (EUR million)

Aligning costs with market activity

Actions to align costs to activity level

Site consolidation to increase efficiency

EUR ~25m estimated annual savings for 2020

Further cost saving initiatives depends on activity level

  • Temporary workforce reductions of ~400 employees during Q2
  • Executive team salary reductions in Q2 extended through Q3
  • Temporary price reductions from IT vendors
  • Norwegian operation reduced from five to two sites
  • Sweden closing one of two sites
  • Further consolidation under consideration
  • EUR ~13m expected in H2 2020
  • EUR 1.2m restructuring costs in Q2 2020
  • Legal costs driven by activity in notary offices and bailiffs
  • Scalable setup to take advantage of further reopening of the economies
  • Potential new lockdown may significantly impact return to normality

NPL revaluation in Q2 of -2.4%

  • Net negative revaluation of EUR 27m of NPL portfolio
    • Extensive review of all portfolios in all countries
    • Based on estimated short-term financial impact of Covid-19
      • Expected overall collection from 2021 onwards remain largely unchanged

REO impairment in Q2 of 22.7%

115 89 26 Pre impairment Impairment accrual Closing book value EUR million -22.7%

  • Estimated impairment of EUR 26m on REO assets
    • Based on updated commercial analysis taking prudent view of current trends in the market
    • Impairment test with external valuation support to be conducted in the second half 2020 to validate initial assessment
    • Lower asset prices observed in the market
    • Lower price growth expectations

REO book value

Covenant update

Waiver obtained to exceed the leverage ratio covenant for Q2 and Q3 on the main bank facility

In compliance on all loan agreements as of Q2 2020 with waiver

3

1

2

Reopening of markets and improving collection significantly reduces risk of covenant breach for the second half 2020

Covid-19 country update

Spain
Significant impact from legal systems being closed first half of the second quarter

Gradual ramp-up from mid May expected to continue into Q3
Italy
Significant impact from legal systems being closed first half of the second quarter

Lock-down restrictions reduced from June with increasing 3PC flow from customers
Norway
NPL collection has remained strong, 3PC with slightly lower volumes

Short-term resilience against Covid-19
Germany
Revenue has remained stable, although the field service operation was temporarily suspended
Finland
Limited impact on NPL collection, while disrupted sales processes slows 3PC ramp-up

Bailiff temporary adjusting collection level to reduce stress on debtors
Sweden
No significant impact on collection due to Covid-19 as economy has remained open

Continued back log at bailiff, expected to be resolved by end of 2020

Ramping up activity levels as markets reopen

  • Nordics less impacted than expected
  • Gradual ramp-up in Spain and Italy
  • Increasing 3PC sales expected in H2 as sales processes normalize
  • Expects shift towards positive cash flow after investments during H2 due to lower investments and higher Cash EBTIDA
  • Total investment level in 2020 in excess of EUR 200 million secures significant volume growth going into 2021

Financials

Q2 2020

Lockdowns and impairments significantly affected Q2 financials

Total revenue development (EUR million)

EBITDA and EBITDA-margin (EUR million and %)

Cash EBITDA (EUR million)

-110%

-60%

-10%

40%

90%

Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Q2 2020 NPL revaluation and REO impairment accrual

10 *Excluding NPL revaluation in Q2 2020 **Adjusted for NPL revaluation and REO impairment accrual in Q2 2020

NPL – Capex mainly deployed in Nordic forward flow deals

NPL collection on own portfolios (EUR million)

Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)

ESP NOR DEU SWE ITA FIN

More balanced cash flow in second half of 2020

NPL investments and Cash EBITDA development (EUR million)

  • Growth fueled by high investments over the last years
  • Commitments dropping significantly in Q3 2020 and onwards
  • Cash EBITDA expected to pick-up in H2 as long as countries continue to reopen
  • With continued open markets, liquidity remains satisfactory
    • Deleveraging expected over the coming quarters

3PC – temporary suspensions to collection services

  • 3PC negatively affected by Covid-19 situation in Q2
    • Temporary collection suspension in Italy and Spain
    • Temporary suspension of field services in Germany
    • Weakened NOK causes negative translation effects for the less affected Norwegian operations
  • Potential for higher demand post-crisis
    • The finance sector accounts for approximately three quarters of the 3PC revenue
    • Economic repercussions are expected to increase volume of non-performing loans at customer's balance sheets
  • Continued focus on combined forward flow and 3PC deals

18

REO – Disruption from lockdown in Spain

REO total revenue development (EUR million)

  • Revenue shortfall in the quarter
    • REO segment particularly affected as closure of public notary offices postponed completion of REO sales
    • Most REO revenue stems from sales signed in the first quarter with completion and realization in the second quarter
  • 256 units sold in Q2, down 17% from Q1
  • Average unit price of EUR 26k

Contribution per segment

Contribution per segment*

Total:

• Negative contribution margin in Q2

NPL:

  • Portfolio amortization and revaluation of EUR 42.1m (18.8) Contribution margin of 33% (80%)
  • Includes EUR 27.0 million in net negative revaluation

3PC:

• 20% contribution margin (50%)

REO:

  • Reflects EUR 26.0 million impairment accrual
  • Slightly negative contribution excl. impairment accrual

Net finance, tax and net profits

Condensed Income statement (EUR thousand)

For
the
end
quarter
Year
date
to
EUR
thousand
Jun
30
2020
Jun
30
2019
Jun
30
2020
Jun
30
2019
EBIT 577
-32
23
748
-21
060
43
622
Financial
revenue
201 29 9
934
43
Financial
expenses
-14
558
-13
961
-30
213
-25
878
Net
financial
items
-14
357
-13
932
-20
279
-25
835
Profit/(loss)
before
tax
-46
934
9
815
-41
339
17
787
(expense)
Tax
2
538
-3
661
393 -7
009
Net
profit/(loss)
after
tax
-44
396
6
154
-40
946
10
778
Net
profit/(loss)
Non-controlling
interests
to
-17
722
1
549
-19
438
4
133
profit/(loss)
Net
to
equity
holders
-26
674
4
605
-21
508
6
645
Earnings
per share:
basic
-0,144 0,030 -0,120 0,043
Earnings
per share:
diluted
-0,137 0,026 -0,114 0,038
  • Total net financial cost of EUR 14.4m
    • Interest cost of EUR 13.9m
    • EUR 0.4m net negative interest on deposits in group multicurrency cash pool
    • Average blended interest costs of approx. 5%
  • Tax return of EUR 2.5m
    • Average tax rate expected to trend towards ~25% over time
  • Net loss of EUR 44.4m
    • EUR -26.7m to equity shareholders
    • EUR -17.7m to non-controlling minorities

Outlook and Summary

Q2 2020

Outlook

Gross revenue NPL & 3PC (LTM, EUR million)

Increasing long-term opportunities:

    • Lower prices and higher IRRs for future NPL portfolio acquisitions, due to increased NPL supply and buyside capital restraints
    • 3PC volumes expected to increase once normal banking operations resume

Medium-term risks:

  • Resurgence of Covid-19 followed by new strict mitigation measures on national and regional levels
  • Economic setback, significantly higher unemployment and lower consumer affordability

Summary

  • Q2 2020 significantly impacted by Covid-19 in all business areas
  • Improving markets with strong pickup in June expected to continue
  • Revaluation and impairment of EUR 53 million to portfolios
  • Waiver for leverage ratio covenant which together with re-openings and improved collections significantly reduces risk of breach in H2 2020
  • Cost reductions estimated to EUR 25 million for 2020
  • Investment level in excess of EUR 200 million for 2020 secures growth into 2021

Supporting information

Q2 2020 Financial highlights

-

,10.0

,20.0

,30.0

,40.0

,50.0

,60.0

,70.0

,80.0

*Excluding NPL revaluation in Q2 2020 **Excluding NPL revaluation and REO impairment accrual in Q2 2020

H1 2020 Key highlights

  • EBITDA impacted by write downs and the Covid-19 situation REO particularly affected
    • Pick-up in June expected to continue into Q3 and onwards
  • Significant cost reduction initiatives implemented during Q2
  • Capex invested in NPL portfolios of EUR 152 million Expect to invest in excess of EUR 200m for the FY 2020
  • Loss before tax of EUR 41.3 million

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0

NPL portfolio

Q2 2020

Capex mainly deployed in Nordic forward flow deals

NPL collection on own portfolios (EUR million)

Quarterly NPL investments (EUR million)

Collection performance impacted by Covid-19 measures

Actual collection vs. active forecast* (LTM, rolling)

  • Slight increase in collection performance despite ongoing Covid-19 measures:
    • Measures in place during the full quarter
    • Italy and Spain most affected
    • Strong pick-up at the end of the quarter
  • Collection performance less affected in Germany and the Nordics
    • Back log at the Swedish bailiff due to transition to new IT system – expect return to normal during H2 2020
  • Long term average performance expected to fluctuate around 100%
    • Portfolios with large positive or negative deviations are continuously on review for revaluation

Portfolio acquisitions focused on Nordic forward flows

Portfolio capex distribution per country* Share of total (EUR million)

  • 81% of H1 2020 capex invested in the Nordics
    • Shift from Spain towards the Nordic countries
    • Attractive IRR development through 2019 and into 2020
    • Primarily forward flow agreements for unsecured consumer finance claims
  • Renegotiated existing forward flow agreements to include 3PC servicing and/or postpone capex
  • Expected FY 2020 investment level in excess of EUR 200m – securing volume going into 2021
  • Opportunistic approach to one-off portfolios
  • No REO acquisitions since 2018

Forward flow outlook

Estimated FF investments from signed contracts (EUR million)

  • Total investment of EUR ~140m in forward flow contracts during H1 2020
    • Estimated H2 forward flow capex of EUR 65-70m
    • Reduced commitments drastically, albeit from a high level
  • NPL portfolio investments secure volume going into 2021

ERC increase despite negative revaluation in the quarter

Forward ERC profile by year (EUR million)

2 500

(EUR million)

ERC development

3PC

Q2 2020

Temporary suspensions to collection services

  • 3PC negatively affected by Covid-19 situation in Q2
    • Temporary collection suspension in Italy and Spain
    • Temporary suspension of field services in Germany
    • Weakened NOK causes negative translation effects for the less affected Norwegian operations
  • Potential for higher demand post-crisis
    • The finance sector accounts for approximately three quarters of the 3PC revenue
    • Economic repercussions are expected to increase volume of non-performing loans at customer's balance sheets
  • Continued focus on combined forward flow and 3PC deals

More diversified geographical exposure

3PC total revenue split by geographic region

  • Increasing the Nordic 3PC business
    • Synergies to be extracted from cross-border deals
    • Nordics accounted for 26% in the quarter
  • Specialized value chain proposition
    • Focus on financial institutions, both in NPL and 3PC
    • 3PC offering with high value recurring revenue
    • Axactor's highly modern, flexible and scalable platform

REO portfolio

Q2 2020

Disruption from lockdown in Spain

REO total revenue development (EUR million)

  • Revenue shortfall in the quarter
    • REO segment particularly affected as closure of public notary offices postponed completion of REO sales
    • Most REO revenue stems from sales signed in the first quarter with completion and realization in the second quarter
  • 256 units sold in Q2, down 17% from Q1
  • Average unit price of EUR 26k

REO portfolio moving towards the tail

  • Total portfolio investments of EUR 285m*
  • Last portfolio acquisition in Q3 2018
    • 61% decline in book value since peak
  • Limited tail risk
    • Axactor owns ~40% of the REO book

  • A total of 8,608 assets acquired*
  • 5,119 assets sold

REO statistics*

EURm

Current
book
Asset
class
#
assets
%
of
total
Book
value
%
of
total
Housing 1
416
,
41
%
51
0
58
%
Parking
, annex etc.
1
326
,
38
%
4
1
5
%
Land 262 8
%
5
3
6
%
Commercial 485 14
%
30
0
34
%
Elimination 0 0
%
8
-1
-2
%
Total 3
489
,
100
%
88
6
100
%
Originally
acquired
Asset
class
#
assets
%
of
total
Book
value
%
of
total
Housing 4
020
,
47
%
194
2
68
%
Parking
, annex etc.
3
394
,
39
%
15
8
6
%
Land 324 4
%
8
9
3
%
Commercial 870 10
%
66
4
23
%
Total 8
608
,
100
%
285
3
100
%
  • Housing represent more than 55% of current book value
    • Limited exposure to commercial assets
  • Average book value per remaining asset EUR 25k
    • Average book value per sold asset of EUR 32k
    • Average sale price per sold asset of EUR 40k

Financials

Q2 2020

Contribution per segment

Contribution per segment*

Total:

• Negative contribution margin in Q2

NPL:

  • Portfolio amortization and revaluation of EUR 42.1m (18.8) Contribution margin of 33% (80%)
  • Includes EUR 27.0 million in net negative revaluation

3PC:

• 20% contribution margin (50%)

REO:

  • Reflects EUR 26.0 million impairment accrual
  • Slightly negative contribution excl. impairment accrual

Minority shareholders in both NPL and REOs

Total book value exposure (EUR million)

  • Axactor has approximately 40% of the total exposure for REO
    • Minority shareholders in both Reolux and its subsidiaries
    • Axactor's share of REO amounts to approximately 4% of its total portfolio book value
  • Axactor shareholders has approximately 83% of the total exposure for NPL
    • Minority shareholder in Axactor Invest

Axactor targets improved ROE over time

Axactor funding structure

- Expects to start deleveraging going into 2021

  • Equity ratio of 27% from equity book value of EUR 363 million
  • Funding base increased by EUR 51 million in Q1 2020 from private placement
  • Extended EUR 425* million RCF by one year to December 2021, conditional on refinancing of bond by end Q1 2021
  • Cash balance of EUR 34 million
  • Expected remaining capex requirements in FF agreements in the range of EUR 65-70 million for 2020
  • Expect shift towards positive CF after investments during H2

Net finance, tax and net profits

Condensed Income statement (EUR thousand)

For
the
end
quarter
Year
date
to
EUR
thousand
30
Jun
2020
30
Jun
2019
30
Jun
2020
30
Jun
2019
EBIT -32
577
23
748
-21
060
43
622
Financial
revenue
201 29 9
934
43
Financial
expenses
-14
558
-13
961
-30
213
-25
878
Net
financial
items
357
-14
-13
932
-20
279
-25
835
Profit/(loss)
before
tax
-46
934
9
815
-41
339
17
787
Tax
(expense)
2
538
-3
661
393 009
-7
Net
profit/(loss)
after
tax
-44
396
6
154
-40
946
10
778
profit/(loss)
Net
Non-controlling
interests
to
-17
722
1
549
-19
438
4
133
profit/(loss)
Net
equity
holders
to
-26
674
4
605
-21
508
6
645
Earnings
per share:
basic
-0,144 0,030 -0,120 0,043
Earnings
per share:
diluted
-0,137 0,026 -0,114 0,038
  • Total net financial cost of EUR 14.4m
    • Interest cost of EUR 13.9m
    • EUR 0.4m net negative interest on deposits in group multicurrency cash pool
    • Average blended interest costs of approx. 5%
  • Tax return of EUR 2.5m
  • Net loss of EUR 44.4m
    • EUR -26.7m to equity shareholders
    • EUR -17.7m to non-controlling minorities

P&L statement

the
end
For
quarter
date
Year
to
thousand
EUR
30
Jun
2020
30
Jun
2019
30
Jun
2020
30
Jun
2019
from
purchased
loan
portfolios
Interest
income
40,511 32,475 79,838 61,464
gain/loss
purchased
loan
portfolios
Net
-28,147 -1,188 -36,906 5,182
Other
operating
revenue
16,219 41,088 41,222 79,347
Other
revenue
71 44 99 74
Total
Revenue
28,654 72,418 84,253 146,067
of
REO's
Cost
sold
, incl
impairment
-32,033 -20,205 -42,207 -39,720
Personnel
expenses
-12,923 -13,925 -27,824 -29,461
Operating
expenses
-13,663 -12,143 -30,058 -28,602
Total
operating
expense
-58,619 -46,273 -100,089 -97,782
EBITDA -29,965 26,145 -15,836 48,285
and
depreciation
Amortization
-2,612 -2,397 -5,224 -4,663
EBIT -32,577 23,748 -21,060 43,622
Financial
revenue
201 29 9,934 43
Financial
expenses
-14,558 -13,961 -30,213 -25,878
financial
items
Net
-14,357 -13,932 -20,279 -25,835
Profit/(loss)
before
tax
-46,934 9,815 -41,339 17,787
(expense)
Tax
2,538 -3,661 393 -7,009
profit/(loss)
after
Net
tax
-44,396 6,154 -40,946 10,778
profit/(loss)
Non-controlling
Net
interests
to
profit/(loss)
holders
Net
equity
to
-17,722
-26,674
1,549
4,605
-19,438
-21,508
4,133
6,645
Earnings
per share:
basic
-0.144 0.030 -0.120 0.043
Earnings
per share:
diluted
-0.137 0.026 -0.114 0.038

Balance sheet statement

EUR
EUR
thousand
ASSETS
Jun
30
2020
Jun
30
2019
Full
year 2019
EUR
EUR
thousand
EQUITY
EQUITY
LIABILITIES
AND
Intangible
non-current
non-current
assets
Equity
attributable
equity
equity
holders
of
the
to
parent
Intangible
Assets
21
184
19
678
21
486
Share
Capital
97
040
81
338
81
338
338
Goodwill 54
087
56
288
56
170
Other
paid-in
equity
236
454
201
141
201
879
Deferred
Deferred
tax
assets
11
776
6
117
9
742
Retained
Earnings
-19
354
527
-7
2
153
Reserves -24
684
-2
255
-4
721
Tangible
non-current
assets
Non-controlling
Non-controlling
interests
73
595
103
217
96
977
Property
, plant
and
equipment
2
787
3
157
2
903
Total
Equity
363
052
375
914
377
626
Right-of-use
assets
5
765
6
562
5
846
Non-current
Non-current
Liabilities
Financial
non-current
assets
Interest
bearing
debt
802
240
552
788
466
378
Purchased
debt
portfolios
1
107
257
909
702
1
041
919
Deferred
liabilities
tax
15
409
10
705
17
591
Other
receivables
non-current
530
530
289
289
765
765
Lease
Lease
liabilities
3
3
395
395
4
4
108
108
3
3
481
481
Other
investments
non-current
193 764 193 Other
liabilities
non-current
1
1
334
1
1
504
1
1
415
Total
non-current
non-current
assets
1
203
579
1
002
557
1
139
025
Total
liabilities
non-current
822
378
569
104
488
864
Current
assets
assets
Current
Liabilities
Stock
of
Secured
of
Assets
88
625
162
471
129
040
Accounts
Payable
3
584
3
163
5
902
Accounts
Receivable
6
468
8
538
13
135
Current
Current
of
portion
interest
bearing
debt
116
225
278
958
463
555
Other
current
current
assets
11
797
12
256
14
960
Taxes
Payable
9
535
6
805
6
570
Restricted
cash
cash
2
891
891
2
830
830
3
3
739
739
Lease
Lease
liabilities
2
613
613
2
489
489
2
549
549
Cash
and
Cash
Equivalents
31
398
66
505
71
657
71
Other
liabilities
current
27
371
27
18
723
26
491
Total
current
assets
141
141
179
179
252
252
600
600
232
232
531
531
Total
liabilities
current
159
159
328
328
310
310
139
139
505
505
066
066
TOTAL
ASSETS
1
344
758
1
255
157
1
371
556
Total
Liabilities
981
706
879
243
993
930
TOTAL
EQUITY
AND
LIABILITIES
1
344
758
1
255
157
1
371
556
TOTAL
EQUITY
AND
LIABILITIES
1
344
758
1
255
157
1
371
556

Governance

Q2 2020

New Executive Team in place

Johnny Tsolis (CEO)

Arnt André Dullum (COO)

Vibeke Ly (Chief of Staff)

Robin Knowles (Chief Investment Officer)

Teemu Alaviitala (CFO) [Start 1st of August]

Kyrre Svae (Chief of Strategy & IR) [Start 1st of August]

Legal organization July 2020

*50% of the shares in Axactor Invest 1 S.à r.l. and Reolux Holding S.à r.l. is held by Geveran Trading Co. Limited (Cyprus). *Geveran Trading Co. Limited also holds shares of Axactor SE 46

Appendix

Terms and abbreviations

APM / KPI definition

EBITDA adjusted for calculated cost of share option program, portfolio amortizations and revaluations, REO cost of
Cash EBITDA sales and REO impairments
Contribution Margin (CM1) Total revenue less Total operating expenses (excluding SG&A, IT and corporate cost)
CM1 Margin CM1 as a percentage of Total revenue
Debt-to-equity ratio Total interest bearing debt as a percentage of total equity
EBITDA margin EBITDA as a percentage of Total revenue
Equity ratio Total equity and liabilities as a percentage of total equity
Estimated Remaining Collection express the expected future cash collection on own portfolios (NPLs) in nominal
ERC values, over the next 180 months.
Gross margin Cash EBITDA as a percentage of gross revenue
Gross revenue 3PC revenue, REO sale, cash collected on own portfolios and other revenue
Net Interest Bearing Debt means the aggregated amount of interest bearing debt, less aggregated amount of
NIBD unrestricted cash and bank deposits, on a consolidated basis
Opex ex SG&A, IT and corp.cost Total expenses excluding overhead functions
Return on Equity, excluding minorities Net profit/(loss) to equity holders as a percentage of total equity excluding Non-controlling interests
Return on Equity, including minorities Net profit/(loss) after tax as a percentage of total equity
SG&A, IT and corporate cost Total operating expenses for overhead functions
Total estimated capital commitments for
forward flow agreements
The total estimated capital commitments for the forward flow agreements are calculated based on the volume
received over that last months and limited by the total capex commitment in the contract.

Terms and abbreviations

3PC Third-party collection
ARM Accounts receivable management
B2B Business to Business
B2C Business to Consumer
BoD Board of Directors
CGU Cash Generating Unit
CM1 Contribution Margin
Dopex Direct Operating expenses
EBIT Operating profit, Earning before Interest and Tax
EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization
ECL Expected Credit Loss
EPS Earnings Per Share
EUR Euro
FTE Full Time Equivalent
IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards
NCI Non-controlling interests
NOK Norwegian Krone
NPL Non-performing loan
OB Outstanding Balance, the total amount Axactor can collect on claims under management, including outstanding
principal, interest and fees
PCI Purchased Credit Impaired
PPA Purchase Price Allocations
REO Real Estate Owned
SEK Swedish Krone
SG&A Selling, General & Administrative
SPV Special Purpose Vehicle
VIU Value in Use
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WAEP Weighted Average Exercise Price

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